Big Herm
Pretty much a regular
My thoughts on this game:
Minny rushing offense will control ball and keep NO on the field throughout the game. Superior offensive line, superior defense from Minny. If Minny can minimize turnovers they should be ok. Nothing kills a team more than driving the ball 60 yards and fumbling it away. They beat a stout CAR team with a +2 turnover margin and lost to Tenn by putting up a -3. They were -1 against GB and +1 in a close game that they could have won vs Indy.
Beyond that, everywhere I look the public is on NO in great percentages, yet the line has not moved...does that mean that the big money is on Minny? I think it does. Even Sportsbook.com has 87% of their bets on NO, but only 46% of the money. I don't put much stake in the Sportsbook numbers, but I do believe the public is all over the Saints and still hasn't managed to move the line off of 3.
As for homefield, NO was 3-5 at home last year, 4-4 the year before, 1-7 the year before that. All three years they had better road records than home records. 2005-2007 you will find a 8-16 home record vs a 12-12 road record. Discounting 2005, the year without Brees, you get a 7-9 home vs 10-6 road record. Minny has been 3-5 on the road the last 2 years. Last year they lost 3 of the 5 by 3 points and then got blown out by GB and beat by 10 by the Cowboys(the two best regular season teams in the NFC last year, IMO).
Lots to consider here, but I like Minny to dominate a soft NO defense with the run and Gus to be just capable enough to not kill them with turnovers. The line movement angle is a new one I am trying to figure out, maybe someone else has some insight.
Minny rushing offense will control ball and keep NO on the field throughout the game. Superior offensive line, superior defense from Minny. If Minny can minimize turnovers they should be ok. Nothing kills a team more than driving the ball 60 yards and fumbling it away. They beat a stout CAR team with a +2 turnover margin and lost to Tenn by putting up a -3. They were -1 against GB and +1 in a close game that they could have won vs Indy.
Beyond that, everywhere I look the public is on NO in great percentages, yet the line has not moved...does that mean that the big money is on Minny? I think it does. Even Sportsbook.com has 87% of their bets on NO, but only 46% of the money. I don't put much stake in the Sportsbook numbers, but I do believe the public is all over the Saints and still hasn't managed to move the line off of 3.
As for homefield, NO was 3-5 at home last year, 4-4 the year before, 1-7 the year before that. All three years they had better road records than home records. 2005-2007 you will find a 8-16 home record vs a 12-12 road record. Discounting 2005, the year without Brees, you get a 7-9 home vs 10-6 road record. Minny has been 3-5 on the road the last 2 years. Last year they lost 3 of the 5 by 3 points and then got blown out by GB and beat by 10 by the Cowboys(the two best regular season teams in the NFC last year, IMO).
Lots to consider here, but I like Minny to dominate a soft NO defense with the run and Gus to be just capable enough to not kill them with turnovers. The line movement angle is a new one I am trying to figure out, maybe someone else has some insight.