Monday Night Football discussion--

[Sammy Meatballs]

Looking at this game right now--

Appears that Orleans is -3 but preliminary thoughts are that the DOg here is the much better rushing team, and also better at stopping the run here.

THis could be a case where the DOG here minny IMO could be favored by -3 at least.

Anytime you can get a DOG with the most dominant running back in the league, they can control the game. FREROTE is pretty good and can throw and manage the game. Saints are also terrible vs the pass.

A suspect Defense giving up 3 is tricky, as IMO these spreads mean nothing, many times the better teams are the DOGS, and you have to see past the whole point spread thing ie Washington today Pittsburgh--

I see New Orleans without top 2 wideouts and a PUBLIC fun and gun offense which attracts bettors always-- I think Minny is a much more complete team for sure.

Minny played Carolina and TEnnese, Green bay, Orleans played 49'ers, Tampa, Denver---

I think this should be a classic case of a better Defensive team with a much better run game getting points vs a fun and gun soft team,

 

[Throwback420]

you bettin that dog ml ?

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

you bettin that dog ml ?

not sure yet, been hot of late went 12-1 this nfl sunday---

thinking about it, anyone can win these games and when I have the best O line and running back it is appealing to me---

NOt sold on Orleans at all---- Brees is good but he played some teams tha were shit vs pass--

Denver and 49'ers, they both could not stop the pass

 

[~Utah]

Peterson has no legs

 

[Throwback420]

Vikes +3 is play of the year. Easiest bet of 2008.

 

[brewer]

Nope that was fish moneyline vs san diego.

 

[nawlins51]

My take on my Saints.

If you like Minny because they stop the run then you better think again about betting them. If Payton sees that he can't run the ball it will be abandoned early.Minny's secondary is mediocre.Brees will exploit them even with all the injuries. Saints recievers aren't the household names but there still better than a lot in the NFL.That reason being Brees. Nobody knows Meachum.He is super fast.I watched this guy in the Dome all season and the best cb's have a hard time covering him.Moore is in a zone and Reggie is putting up good numbers.When the secondary starts to cloud those receivers Brees starts looking for his TE or Reggie in the flat.I see Minny having a hard time stopping the pass unless they get pressure.The thing with Brees is a lot of his passes or 3 step drops and get the ball out. It is hard to sack him because of the dink and dump style .

Now on defense.I bet you right now the Saints have 8 in the box all night. They will make Minny beat them by passing.Now I know the Saints have a preception of sucking in the secondary but there is no big threat imo from Minny that has emerged.I expect the Saints to pressure Ferrote all night.Can Minny have success with this style...of course and the Saints will let em have it.They will do everything to stop AP.Now Mckenzie has been playing good and the rookie Porter is getting better every week.He is never burnt and always in the play.I see no reason he doesn't have a decent game.

Final thoughts... Minny can beat the Saints by taken advantage of the Saints stacking the box.If Ferrotte is on his game the Saints will struggle eventually having to respect the pass and thats when AP can become a factor.If not the Saints win. Like a stated earlier the Saints will probably abandon the run early except for a draw here and there.Please don't make a bet on Minny because they can stop the run.The Saints are a pass 1st team.If there is no pressure on Brees he will exploit every single weakness on this defense.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

good stuff nawlins--

i know meacham is good and moore also they torched denver---

ANother factor is that I feel that Brees is the best deep ball thrower in the nfl-

he throws a nice deep ball nice spiral----

Brees is also one guy that can throw the ball with deeper routes downfield and he has the best touch in the league--

However i thought that Minny would be able to run very easily and then Rice and Berrian is a deep threat to beat Saints--

What happened to jason DAVID that guy was the worst in the NFL in years i thought-

Thanks for the help

 

[CapTwo]

what about NO's o-line?

shouldnt minny be able to get pressure on brees and force him out of the pocket or limit his time to get rid of the ball?
we know minny can and probably will stop the run, if brees is out of a rhythm the saints are fucked

thats what worries me for NO, which is one of the reasons why i bought off my saints bet.

minny ML or nothing for me

 

[Throwback420]

minny is just so much better they should be -7

no way they lose this game.

 

[CapTwo]

good stuff nawlins--

i know meacham is good and moore also they torched denver---

ANother factor is that I feel that Brees is the best deep ball thrower in the nfl-

he throws a nice deep ball nice spiral----

my uncle in NY throws a SICK spriral. and he can throw the ball deep.

im thinking of betting on his co-ed flag football league games now if i can get a bookie to give me lines

deep ball nice spiral QB's = guaranteed winner

opcorn:

 

[nawlins51]

good stuff nawlins--

i know meacham is good and moore also they torched denver---

ANother factor is that I feel that Brees is the best deep ball thrower in the nfl-

he throws a nice deep ball nice spiral----

Brees is also one guy that can throw the ball with deeper routes downfield and he has the best touch in the league--

However i thought that Minny would be able to run very easily and then Rice and Berrian is a deep threat to beat Saints--

What happened to jason DAVID that guy was the worst in the NFL in years i thought-

Thanks for the help

Jason David has spot duty.He plays mostly special teams.

Rice and Berrian have that threat but will there be pressure to stop that deep threat. If Minny's Oline can hold up in pass protection eventually the Saints will have to respect the pass and Minny can pound the rock.If this happens Minny will have them offbalance and be able to control the clock and possibly win the game.If not its all Saints.

I am not betting this game.If I would I take the Saints.But the problem is just too much money on the Saints side.That scares me.

 

[nawlins51]

what about NO's o-line?

shouldnt minny be able to get pressure on brees and force him out of the pocket or limit his time to get rid of the ball?
we know minny can and probably will stop the run, if brees is out of a rhythm the saints are fucked

thats what worries me for NO, which is one of the reasons why i bought off my saints bet.

minny ML or nothing for me

Cap thats why the Saints have Brees do a dink and dump style.It shadows the Saints Oline weakness.Its hard for any NFL defender to sack a QB who throws probably 70% of his passes on a 3step drop and throw.

 

[Throwback420]

+3 is like free money

 

[nawlins51]

+3 is like free money

oh my....Just picking buddy

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

+3 is like free money

i heard New Orleans is such a lock that USA is going to bet 750 Billion on new orleans at -3 and use the money to bail out the banking mortgage collapse---

It appears that this is a once a lifetime opportunity that will never come around again---

With the Saints they have the worlds 2 fastest men in BUSH and Henderson and the greatest QB BREES who has a built in GPS in hisbrain to find receivers-

The D of the SAINTS makes the Steelers D look like a cartoon Defense

 

[SportsNut]

Some injuries here but was pounding NO +4 -120 when the number came out . Just dont see these teams as equal. Vikings are 1-3 and have played some very good football . While NO has injuries is 2-2 with okay wins vs TB and SF...

Vikings should be able to run effectively on the Saints which will also help keep there defense fresh and NO on the field . I just feel that QB and WRs are what NO has the clear edge on but outside of that its all Vikings IMO with the 2 stud RBs basically equal but in different ways ...Saints rely to much on big pass plays and while Minny secondary is weak conisdering its overall defense is very solid just dont expect repeated big plays against it ......also FG kckers have to lean Minny...

If Minny wins with Det on deck it could be 3-3 if NO loses and goes to 2-3 same could be said as they would host Oak after this......

Its marginal but the line IMO should be closer to a PKem like Saints -1.5 as Viings to me are slightily better ...teams havent played in awhile so no recent history.

:cheers:

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Exactly my thoughts, this New Orleans team is all OFFENSE-----

Minny is a better overall team, Minny SHARPER on D is usualy a great deep ball defender-- ALso i cannot trust lance moore and Robert Meacham to win teh game-


This is a classic PAC 10 type, MAC type favorite, kind of like when Steve spurrier would be favored vs georgia and lose outright vs physical teams----

If game is won in trenches, Minny has a much better O line and MCKINNY is back for this game-- They wil have the best left side in the game back together--

Jaredd Allen will get pressure and stop the Brees deep passes--

Also it is certain that Orleans cannot play 4 qtrs tomorrow? WHY cause teams like Orleans just dont play 4 qtrs. Orleans will suffer a major drought and mail in at least 1 qtr and a half tomorrow--

I think we see a game a lot like the Steeler game--

This line should be more like Minny -3-- they are bigger, stronger, more physical, and are a bad matchup for Orleans-

 

[Satyr]

my uncle in NY throws a SICK spriral. and he can throw the ball deep.

im thinking of betting on his co-ed flag football league games now if i can get a bookie to give me lines

deep ball nice spiral QB's = guaranteed winner

opcorn:

:36_11_6::36_11_6:

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

ALso I feel that Orleans will not be up for this game---

If i have to look at motivation, Orleans just won a big win vs 49'ers, so they are going to be completely not focussed for this game--

Minny off a loss in a must win spot is different--

Orleans will be in very tough here, I think AP can run all over them and the vikings receivers are good, we just needed someone to get the ball to them----

When things go wrong for PAYTON he presses, I dont think he will like this game because I think they lose the TIME OF POSSESSION bigtime----

ALso I really think Orleans will mail this game in bigtime, I dont see any urgency or any reason why they would want to beat MINNY--
This is not a team in their division-
they are not coming off a loss-

They look good after beating the 49'ers who suck-

I think Minny plays with some urgency and is a few levels above Orleans-

Other than the BREES deep balls, i have no idea how Saints even stay competitive in this game?

 

[Throwback420]

i heard New Orleans is such a lock that USA is going to bet 750 Billion on new orleans at -3 and use the money to bail out the banking mortgage collapse---

It appears that this is a once a lifetime opportunity that will never come around again---

With the Saints they have the worlds 2 fastest men in BUSH and Henderson and the greatest QB BREES who has a built in GPS in hisbrain to find receivers-

The D of the SAINTS makes the Steelers D look like a cartoon Defense

:shake:

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

I expect a repeat of a game few years ago when Tennesse and VInce Young came in and crushed Orleans and VINCE YOUNG looked like Joe Montano moving the ball---

If I have to trust someone in this game here is the breakdown-

A team is favored by -3 that has

-MICKEY MOUSE DEFENSE
-MICKEY MOUSE DEFENSIVE BACKS
-MICKEY MOUSE OFFENSIVE LINE
-MICKEY MOUSE COACH WHO PRESSES
-Good QB that can throw deep ball
-REGGIE BUSH
-BACKUP RECEIVERS STARTING

-MINNY
_POWER RUN GAME
-GUS FREROTTE COMPOSED VET
-FAST BERRIAN AND RICE
-AP BEST PLAYER ON FIELD
-JARRET ALLEN BEST D PLAYER
-UNDERATED SECONDARY IN MINNY
-GOOD VS RUN
-DARREN SHARPER MR.MONDAY NIGHT
-BALANCED OFFENSE

This is true as the team with the MICKEY MOUSE's are USUALLY favored beacuse the public loves MICKEY MOUSE and DISNEY WORLD--

However I am betting vs MICKEY MOUSE and taking MINNY

 

[Satyr]

 

[Throwback420]

<<------------ Sammy

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

PLEASE WELCOME YOUR MICKEY MOUSE FAVORITE OF THE WEEK THE NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3

te=Satyr;1083273]

[/quote]

 

[Throwback420]

yup Saints are so mickey mouse

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

So far this week---

MICKEY MOUSE FAVORITES WEEK 5---

PHILLY
JAGS
SAN DIEGO

 

[Satyr]

you're betting Saints aren't you Throwback?opcorn:

 

[Throwback420]

championship!!

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Conversation--

Square A-- Man monday night is here lets bet on the game-
Square B- Yah what u think Orleans is -3 and 47

Squaer A- Oh my god only -3 give me Orleans all day
Square b- yah dont they have that BUSH guy who ran Td after TD at USC

Square A- yah you see his run last week on sports centre?
SquareB- Yah he is sick, BREES throws deep all day I love the Saints they are fun

Square A- is Minny any good?
Square b- No they suck, their QB got benched and I never saw them on sportscentre, apparently they cant pass

Square A- Fuck Minny they are boring, Orleans will throw all day and has the better players
Square B- DOnt have to convince me I am doubling up on this game all of my losses this month on tihs game

 

[brewer]

Houshmanzilla went off today

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Heismanshwarma is a good receiver- he is very very smart and deadly ----

 

[cogenman]

+3 is like free money

aye man, quit with the reverse jinxes. you on the Saints or Vikes?

 

[Marlo]

My take on my Saints.

If you like Minny because they stop the run then you better think again about betting them. If Payton sees that he can't run the ball it will be abandoned early.Minny's secondary is mediocre.Brees will exploit them even with all the injuries. Saints recievers aren't the household names but there still better than a lot in the NFL.That reason being Brees. Nobody knows Meachum.He is super fast.I watched this guy in the Dome all season and the best cb's have a hard time covering him.Moore is in a zone and Reggie is putting up good numbers.When the secondary starts to cloud those receivers Brees starts looking for his TE or Reggie in the flat.I see Minny having a hard time stopping the pass unless they get pressure.The thing with Brees is a lot of his passes or 3 step drops and get the ball out. It is hard to sack him because of the dink and dump style .

Now on defense.I bet you right now the Saints have 8 in the box all night. They will make Minny beat them by passing.Now I know the Saints have a preception of sucking in the secondary but there is no big threat imo from Minny that has emerged.I expect the Saints to pressure Ferrote all night.Can Minny have success with this style...of course and the Saints will let em have it.They will do everything to stop AP.Now Mckenzie has been playing good and the rookie Porter is getting better every week.He is never burnt and always in the play.I see no reason he doesn't have a decent game.

Final thoughts... Minny can beat the Saints by taken advantage of the Saints stacking the box.If Ferrotte is on his game the Saints will struggle eventually having to respect the pass and thats when AP can become a factor.If not the Saints win. Like a stated earlier the Saints will probably abandon the run early except for a draw here and there.Please don't make a bet on Minny because they can stop the run.The Saints are a pass 1st team.If there is no pressure on Brees he will exploit every single weakness on this defense.

I Couldn't have said it better myself.

 

[SF_capper]

looks like henderson is out, but childress likely to give some kind of speech to his 1-3 vikings

 

[Marlo]

looks like henderson is out, but childress likely to give some kind of speechto his 1-3 vikings

The Henderson injury is huge. Desperation mode for the Vikings.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Just a reminder that the last 13 MNF games have been won by the favourite (8-5 ATS), the 2nd longest SU Fav run to that since the start of the 2000 season being 5 games (4 times).

And further to that, no Favourite has lost SU in regulation time for 18 straight MNF games (the only Dog to have won SU did so in OT). From 2000 up until this 17-1 SU run by the Fav, the Fav went 75-44 SU, which is, funnily enough, a Fav to Dog ratio of 1.7:1 - this recent run has blown out that by a multiple of 10.


Monday Night Football: where squares don't bother with Fav spreads because the ml never lets them down.

 

[Inspekdah]

What you guys think of this prop:

Peterson -6 Fantasy Points vs. Reggie Bush?

IMO this is a great bet for Peterson. Duece's return makes goal situations very questionable. He will be a threat in the passing game... but Peterson should get cleared IMO.

 

[Blue_Chip]

Sammy, AP is not the most dominant RB in the league. Something can be said when Minny puts any RB in the backfield and that guy succeeds. This speaks volumes about the strength of Minny's OL, led by big Stevie H.

Nawlins, Payton loves to throw the ball so expect the Brees aerial attack early, often, and throughout the entire game regardless of score. Our OL will not be able to open holes for Bush, Deuce, Thomas, or Stecker, so this only supports my thinking that the Saints will be almost all passing tonight on offense.

Minny without a doubt has the better defense. Will they realize Griffin as their weak link and give him help before Brees shreds him, or will they allow the Saints to abuse him?

Objective take: Minny has the advantage at every position except QB and maybe a WR3 spot. Put Rice or Berrian with a QB like Brees and it would be devistating to opposing defenses, but Minny has Frerotte not Brees. Add to it all that Sed Ellis is out. Bottom line is you have the superior team as a dog on the road; bet that as you may.

Subjective take: Fuck Minnesota! I'm rooting for my Aints like I do every week. Bush on screen passes and out of the slot, Devery and Meachem deep, Moore for 1st downs, Deuce pushing the pile, Harper with multiple INTs, Grant and Smith sacking the QB 6 times like last week ... let me dream damnit!

 

[xxDaJackaLxx]

ALso I feel that Orleans will not be up for this game---

If i have to look at motivation, Orleans just won a big win vs 49'ers, so they are going to be completely not focussed for this game--

Minny off a loss in a must win spot is different--

People were saying this about Skins @ Philly too and the idea is preposterous! These guys are professionals. This is their job. Just because you do your job well one day, does NOT mean you don't show up to do your job well the next day.

No offense bro, but Sammy did you ever actually PLAY football? Every game you play is the ONLY game you play. :shake:

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Teams in the NFL can only play 5 good games a year-- This is a known fact they only get up for 5 games a year--

Minny gets up for this game, they are DOGS, even though they are better-

Saints have a suspect D, teams like the Saints dont play 4 qtrs, meaning they cant cover the spread or have no chance of a comfortable victory---

I can 1000000000% guarantee you that the Saints will mail in at least a qtr and a half tomorrow-- I think the end of the 1st qtr and the 2nd qtr the Saints will mail that qtr in--- THen they try their usual halftime adjustments and try to mount a comeback--

Not one Saints backer even considers their D is very mickey mouse- You can basically run a guy on a 10 yard hook all day and he is wide open on Saints--

LMAO at Saints stacking the box with 8 to stop the run? Is the 29th ranked pass D going to hold up with the accurate FREROTTE who is a fiery competitor---

BREES is being crowned as some kind of magician, I have seen this guy struggle and be terrible, he is overrated bigtime--- BREES dominated Denver and 49'ers who I believe are 2 of the worst in the NFL vs the pass and vs the deep pass--

The Saints will mail this game in, you cant ask marginal NFL players on Defense, backups left right and centre on OFFENSE to cover a spread, it does not work like that.

 

[ghostnmyhead]

hmm, im going with the home fave tonight. when in doubt take the home fave on MNF. minny's secondary is just as suspect as saints D. brees is going to slice through that secondary all day.

 

[nawlins51]

Sammy, AP is not the most dominant RB in the league. Something can be said when Minny puts any RB in the backfield and that guy succeeds. This speaks volumes about the strength of Minny's OL, led by big Stevie H.

Nawlins, Payton loves to throw the ball so expect the Brees aerial attack early, often, and throughout the entire game regardless of score. Our OL will not be able to open holes for Bush, Deuce, Thomas, or Stecker, so this only supports my thinking that the Saints will be almost all passing tonight on offense.

Minny without a doubt has the better defense. Will they realize Griffin as their weak link and give him help before Brees shreds him, or will they allow the Saints to abuse him?

Objective take: Minny has the advantage at every position except QB and maybe a WR3 spot. Put Rice or Berrian with a QB like Brees and it would be devistating to opposing defenses, but Minny has Frerotte not Brees. Add to it all that Sed Ellis is out. Bottom line is you have the superior team as a dog on the road; bet that as you may.

Subjective take: Fuck Minnesota! I'm rooting for my Aints like I do every week. Bush on screen passes and out of the slot, Devery and Meachem deep, Moore for 1st downs, Deuce pushing the pile, Harper with multiple INTs, Grant and Smith sacking the QB 6 times like last week ... let me dream damnit!

I will be leaving in 2 hours heading to the Dome.WOOHOOOO

WHO DAT and my subjective take - Fuck Minny

 

[Satyr]

I can 1000000000% guarantee

opcorn:

 

[xxDaJackaLxx]

I guess Sammy is betting his life savings on Minny ML then, huh?

 

[xxDaJackaLxx]

This is a known fact they only get up for 5 games a year--

LMAO at Saints stacking the box with 8 to stop the run? Is the 29th ranked pass D going to hold up with the accurate FREROTTE who is a fiery competitor---

Is this the same Frerotte who is 41 for 71 (57.7%) on the year? The one throwing for an avg. of 6.6yds a completion? The same Frerotte with only 1 TD and 2 INTs this year? Hmmm... accurate and fiery competitor are two words that don't really coincide with the name Frerotte.

And "it is a known fact" ? Where are you getting this info Sammy? You are treading dangerously close to discrediting yourself as a knowledgable NFL capper.

:seeya:

 

[ddk997]

Like the OVER in this game. Both defense are mediocre against the pass defense. IMO its all going to comedown who can stop the run...I'll give the edge to Minny. Drew Brees has had trouble before against a cover 2 defense, keep that in mind. I see NO winning this game, but Minny can easily be favored in this game. Sticking with OVER 46.5

 

[Inspekdah]

Yeah I don't know about all the "fact" that the Saints only get up so many times a year. However, obviously Minny has more urgency in this game than the Saints who torched a pretty good Niners defense... Problem in that game is though the Niners shot themselves in the foot with turnovers, and they never ran the ball. Don't look at the box score! Minny will keep the Saints off the field... it took the Saints 2-3 possessions to get on the board at home vs. SF. Against the Vikings... that could be bringing you into halftime, my Niners though, go 3- and out very quickly and the Saints then finally caught rhythm.

It's MNF, in a dome in New Orleans... both teams want this one. Saying that the Saints are overlooking this one is a joke... but also saying that Minny is tanking when they are in a tough/close division... is a joke as well.

I lean Minny as they have a much better defense...and have played in tougher situations this year. On the road in GB, @ Tenny, and are the only ones to have beaten Carolina remember... dominated them in the dome at home. The Saints have proven to have sweese chese defense and are lacking a real downfield threat without Colston.

Vikings in a nail biter!

 

[BigRaktor]

I can 1000000000% guarantee you that the Saints will mail in at least a qtr and a half tomorrow-- I think the end of the 1st qtr and the 2nd qtr the Saints will mail that qtr in--- THen they try their usual halftime adjustments and try to mount a comeback--

Here is a breakdown on NO scoring off/def avg by quarter:
FG 27.8/25.0
1Q 2.5/6.8
2Q 11.8/5.5
3Q 7.8/5.5
4Q 5.8/7.3

Looks like the quarter for the Saints to mail it in is either 1st or 4th. I'm on the over 46.5 myself...let hope these 21 point 1st quarters continue. That will get me started off right. Unfortunately, Min only scores 1.5pts on avg in the 1st Q, so who knows what will happen.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Is this the same Frerotte who is 41 for 71 (57.7%) on the year? The one throwing for an avg. of 6.6yds a completion? The same Frerotte with only 1 TD and 2 INTs this year? Hmmm... accurate and fiery competitor are two words that don't really coincide with the name Frerotte.

And "it is a known fact" ? Where are you getting this info Sammy? You are treading dangerously close to discrediting yourself as a knowledgable NFL capper.

:seeya:

JACKAL I heard it on NFl talk radio with Peter king, he said teams only get up for 5 games a year which makes sense to me. I dont know any teams that can get up for every game week in week out--

jackal be carefull of judging FREROTTE on 2 games, your stats are the exact reason why he will rip it apart tonight. If it was as easy as looking at stats for one game and saying ok freroote has been avg he will play avg tonight we would all be rich--

Ex- big BEN, his shoudler is hurt, thier O line is hurt, they have no runing game, they rush for 100 yard and BEN rips the JAGS apart surprising everyone, not me as JAGS were in a let down and mail in spot yesterday-