Monday NBA

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Absolute awful job on 3 last games of the nite after not posting my earlier plays. So hopefully this post has some value.....

NBA

Miami Heat ML -145 (5x) CHANGE Philly +3.5 -105 (6x) MIDDLED
Over 195 -121 (7x)

Something just seems odd at how this line opened at -3-105 and how has plus vig. Havent seen one reason to take Philly...so a safe middle with 1.25 unit risk basically..Also the Philly team total went from 96 to 97 with really no move at all in the total maybe 3 dollars on the vig side.....VERY ODD

With Riley's lineup shuffling the offense has produced 100 points in consecutive games for the 1st time this season (and nearly consecutive wins) . The emergence of Dorrell Wright(6'8 F/G) will give Miami the edge on the glass which Philly will attempt to neutralize with its advantage in shooting the three. Though Miami is much better at home from beyond the arc. In the 1st meeting Miami lead by 7 at half but collapsed in the 2nd ! This game was played without Jason Williams and with little contribution from Wright or Kapuano...Shaq was out though. Philly has had injuries issues with Webber and Stephen Hunter missing significant time. CWebb is still out and Hunter still questionable. Philly has received increased contributions from Randolph in there absence and new found confidence in Willie Green. Both teams shot poor from the FT line in the 1st meeting yet the game soared into the 200's. Last 2 games Heat are 53 / 70 (76%) from the FT line. While Philly games average about 60-65 FT's....which are great for overs.. I like the over cause basically I have confidence in Philly getting 95 , 96 pts and Miami again crackinga 100..just seeing if I can get some better numbers...This has become a home DOMINANTED series with the home team going 9 -1 and Miami winning there last 5 at home aftre losing 5 straight at home to Philly. Home team 6-1 ATS last 7 meetings , Philly 1-4 ATS last 5 in Miami and only once has Philly lost by less then 10 pts in Miami (8 points). Thanks to the Heat struggles 1-6 ATS at home 2-5 SU you get the Heat who were favored by 3 in philly to -3 at home...

Timberwolves +9.5 -110 (8x) ML +400 (1/2x)
Under 184.5 -110 (4x)

I guess I continue to feel that Minny is simply underrated. The Mavs are on fire and have there last 3 home opponents in check offensively 73 , 80 , 84 . However that was a Peja and West - less Hornets , a Wiz team that went ICE COLD in the 2nd H(stink on the road) and ended with 80 and the Grizz wth 84 can be offensively challenged. I thought +6 was about where this should be. Couple games back Dal was only -10 to Memphis , they were only -10 to the Hornets w/o 2 key players. Both meetings in Dal last year the MAVS needed to pull away in the 4th quarter to win by 3 and 6 points. Minny has played well versus Dallas in the past but I caution that point cause this is a new Minny team. With Foye and Craigh Smith getting some minutes now. Wally gone and enter Ricky Davis. Blount playing at Center over the other rejects , Mike James at the point...but Dallas is basically the same with a difference in there bench. The key will be defending Dallas deep ball...With Dal holding opponnets to about 40% past 5 games and Minny scoring bewteen 76-88 last 5 away I figure Wolves to be about 85 pts here. If I feel Minny is the play then so must be the under with Dallas around 92 pts...Both teams are hot but Dallas going for 10th straight makes me feel this is FAT! During the streak at home DAL was -4 Chi , -10 Mem , -5 Wiz , and -9.5 NO ....DOG is 6-1 ATS last 7 series...and 16-5 ATS last 21 . The UNDER is 19-7 Last 26 away Minny and 29-8 for Dallas against teh Northwest divsion.

Magic +6 -108 (4x) ML +210 (1/2x)
Over 197.5 -108 (6x)

The Magic have played well against the West excluding the loss @ Memphis which they fell apart in the 4th quarter after leading throughout. They defeated Seattle and Denver at home plus winning @ Minny. The Jazz have struggled somewhat at home vs East teams with narrow defeats over Detriot and Toronto. They lost @ NJ but won close games in MILW and Boston earlier. As for situational analysis Utah does host SA on Wednesday and Orl begins a 6 game road trip here. The Jazz finally after 4 huge comebacks were abit short in GS. Utah is off a loss but could they be thinking more about SA here( Utah off SU loss recently not solid vs the spread)? With the struggles ORL has had away they certainly are focused on getting off the trip on the right foot( fucking Covers article I know!!!). Orl is 2-8 SU past 10 in Utah but are 2-3 SU losing by 2,5 , and 7 pts last 5 in Utah. These teams get to the FT line alot avg 30 + FT attempts and combined for in the 70's in the meetings last year. The Magic defense seems to start good and then fade as the road games progress (1st H 43 pts and 2nd H 53 pts allowed) but Utah avgs 109 at home starting 55 1st H points...

To me ORL keys are simple 3 pt shooting percentage and FT percentage... Magic are 7-1 L8 as DOG and 13-5-2 ATS vs Northwest. Utah 5-12-1 L18 as favorite and 3-9-1 last 13 vs East.
The Over is 20-6 for Utah L26 vs East and Over is 21-8 following aUtah SU loss. Orl is also 5-0-1 L 6 meetings.

If some reason ORL does become a public Dog I probably will be OFF the play. Primarily cause I hate public dogs but technically cause I had this spread at -5.5 or -6 so Utah would possible be cheap at home...how is 7-0 team cheap??? Thats why I would change...




We all know about SA back to back issues now 2-2 ATS this year but just 9-20 past 29 ATS in these spots. Last time out I argued cause we were so in tune to these spots books had shaded these situations. In this matchup I dont think that has happened. However I cant say for sure with Baron Davis being Out and Giniboli being Out. Clearly a PG Baron Davis is the more valuable loss and not sure exactly how this has been shaded in the line. Pietrus is also a player I would like to see active here after missing SAT with the stomach flu. Recently GS has been +1 at home to Utah and won as well as +3.5 to Suns but losing on a buzzer beater. So where is SA inrelation to those teams? Well Spurs have been -6 or -7 to NYK , Port , and Tor on the road. All 3 are bottomfeeders while right now GS has proven to be one of the better teams in the league. last nite SEA gave SA a game till they fell to pieces late and were only -4. Clearly GS is better then Sea and love that SA has Utah on deck. They also are playing 34d in 4 nites ...Dallas on Fri , @ Port on Sun and here @ GS.

Spurs have won last 3 in GS and are 3-2 SU last 5 but GS own a 2 and 3 pt loss in this span. SA is 7-0 away and ATS!! I think thats due to the fact they have been undervalued a few times away...dogged twice ...and as I said 3 biggest spreads were to 3 bad teams andthe higgest number was -7. All the trend point to GS here :

GS 6-0-1 ATS last 7 as small home dog
GS 8-1 ATS L9 at home
GS 38-13-3 as home Dog
GS 25-9 ATS off SU off win of 10+
Home team 8-3 ATS

Like the under here but wonder was GS defense vs Utah the balancing act of there effort vs DEN. Think Den shoot 55% the worst GS has allowed and Utah 32% the best GS has allowed.. Spurs only scoring lows 90's in back to backs and GS played well against Utahs big front line. Havent decided yet with alot of over trends but it seems unlikely SA hits a 100...

Plays : Warriors +4.5 -110 (6x) ML +168 (1.5x)
Under 196 -105 (3x)

TEAM TOTALS
Over 99 -104 Miami (2.5x)
Over 96 -108 Philly (1x)
Under 88 -108 Minny (1.5x)
Under 96.5 -110 Dal (2x)
Over 102 -105 Utah (2x)
Over 96 -110 Orl (1x)
Under 100 -108 SA (1.5x)

In NCAA have a few but actually like 2 dogs alot StPeters and Buffalo.

Good Luck.
 
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Appreciate the thoughts, and I can certainly understand why the MIA-PHI total has risen from its opener - GL Nut (that Den-Clips Under was just too easy in the end).
 
Yeah wish I could have posted that instead of the other late night LOSERS... I missed getting thetotal @ 194 , 194.5 and lucked out at 195 now 196.5..

GL
 
Just a note incase you miss it....I am middling the heat ML with Philly @ +3.5.....read the above

GL
 
TheDegenerate ~ Guess thats my point who doesnt see value in Miami? We all do yet there has been almost no movement on the game. What little there was was basically down -105 vig To +102 vig now -104 vig...just seemed sort of odd. What really scared me was seeing the Philly team total jump a whole point..I like Miami to win who knows may they battle it out and win by two wouldnt shock me. GL

Meister macdamn & 3 gamblers ~ Lets do this...somewhat concerned I missed a better number with Orlando but I wanted to see this type of line move so who knows. GL

This is my FINAL CARD! Except of course for HALFTIME's
 
I have so muc shit sometimes I make myself DIZZY. As I forgot these...

1st Half
Ov 95.5 -108 1st H Miami (2x) Played when the game total was 194.5 knew it wouldnt get any cheaper
Under 97.5 -123 GS (2x)
 
Good Luck Biggoob! Have to say after 1 Q I am happy I middled my Heat ML...

Matt thats good to hear! Good Luck bro.
 
In NCAAB of the 2 DOGS I really liked Buffalo just hit and got the ML +288 as well...lets go StPeters!!! an my NBA!
 
Thanks BAR..Unfortuneately AI is taking every shot for Philly and thats about the worse possible thing ever....so I probably overthought an easy win..and end up losing the vig......then the game I was scred off Orl cause I was against everyone will probably hit...what can u do ...GL
 
Sports- forget about line movements. Philly ML prolly had enough action on it and they prolly got enough action ATS to warrant the line holding firm. I mean I don't know if Philly is 4 points worse than Orlando... but that's what this line would indicate? You think Philly on rest would be -10.5 out in Utah? I could see 8 or 8.5 right about now. I actually wouldn't have played it if I saw PK or MIA -1, -1.5.. that would have been phishy... but -3 is a fair amount to lay when you are playing wretched ball worthy of being faded every single time.
 
Inspekdah ~ I understand what your trying to say. Guess my point is I am not the average capper and more about 'trading' a market. I need to know where every line is and why it moved. How do I..? Why it moved cause first I know where the line should be and second I know what the average person is thinking looking at the game. Then I have about every scenario of pros and cons weighted in my head. Given all the facts and data there really wasnt 1 single reason to bet Philly +3 on the road. Not one. You can say Miami sucked but then your not really follwoing the NBA( not saying thsi towards you). Riley implemeneted lineup changes and they almost beat Orl and won @ Charlotte. Now they get a team they cant win on the road , cant win in Miami and its basically a Pkem. Why is someone betting Philly? I am not concerned with sharps or public betting but rather what is the othere persons reasoning or theory that I can rationalize and say this wont happen AND I know my play is correct.

I can tell you I probably make 30 playa a week just by knowing a line is off...and probably hit close to about 2/3.....there just is no rhyme or reason to why I like them I only know the line is moving for the wrong reasons. Ball State in college is a perfect example tonite...

Lines and movement always matter to me...its just part of what I do...

Clearly there was enough Philly money to hold the line but again why is someone betting Philly? At the end of the day the only thing I can say is the avg bettor just hadnt paid attetion the past 2 games to see what was going on..

Do I agree with your line comemnts...well its how I look at it but I would say if Orl is 6 here then Philly would be +10 or so in Utah and is definetly a few points worse on a neutral court...Orl is a team that is undervalued and has been favoed on the road...very few places Phi would be favored away..

I over thought it I almost went Miam 2nd H but didnt? You know a great indicator of who will win a game is ? If a team dominants a 1st Q but allows it opponents to get back in the game in the 2nd Q , then its very likely the team that made teh comeback wins the game or covers the spread...

I cant possibly explain everything little thing I look at. I understand your point its not so much the move but why is it moving?

Like how is anyone taking Seattle in the NFL today? I made a point to play teh +9.5 as sooon as it came out and sat worried about cause who is steaming Seattle today? Just who thinks a team with a QB who hasnt played in over a month and a RB justreturning from injury should be better then a TD here? Sometimes I just dont get it and other times it makes sense...

I make mistakes at times and I made one here....what can I do..

Kills me to lose the total by 1 point when I wanted to take it at 194 before I went to sleep last nite..AI did me in and lack of FT's as well...Mr.Wade missed one inside a minute.....
 
We got that Miami play Nut, good stuff... really appreciate the writeups too, i use this thread as a reference of sorts
 
Thanks Killa! Unfortunately I overthought this one at the end and went for a middle. AI is just a ball hog and wont allow anyone else to get involved.....game ruined my nite in so many ways....

I can say this I wanted to play the Over 195 in GS to middle my SA under and it just went off when I tried now......

what I said about 2nd Q and sides also holds true with totals.....bye , bye under !
 
Nice stuff today Nut!! Good job with the minny game...orlando looking good...Im on the warriors with ya so hopefully they pull it out.
 
yea..i like it over here...havent been around much though..got bored w/ baseball and hate betting football...good ole college basketball and sometimes pros is what keeps me goin...bol buddy
 
shit dude, my bad. I never saw that u middled out of it. I didnt mean to pour salt on the wound there. my fault.
 
Thanks guys...GL all!

Since I hate the fact the GS is game tied @ 100 ....

Over 98.5 -120 2nd Half (3x)

Really this is my attempt at getting out of my under 196...

Orlando was nice wish I had played it bigger really loved them in this spot.....made a couple bucks on the ORL 2nd H ML and under 2nd H Dallas...

need GS...it really can be aggrvating to have an excellent handle on the card and not win large sums.....

GL all
 
Good work tonight Nut, hopefully I will be on the same side as you more often.

Let's hope the Warriors can pull this one out for us.
 
No problem Justin. Its not your fault or a bad thing...I made a poor decision...it happens..really losing the Over by 1 that stings....with all the team totals and such think I about +2 with the GS game pending .....If GS could win SU I will walk away with a smile ......little concerned in some way that the ML is -173 for SA 2nd H but gonna roll with it......did okay in NCAAB...

Sometimes thing just appear way to simple to me....in the end if I had seen only 65% on Philly @ Sportsinsights I probably would not have middled...
 
Miami Heat ML -145 (5x) & CHANGE Philly +3.5 -105 (6x) MIDDLED
Over 195 -121 (7x) -8.47 (-9.77 with th vig from the middle)


Timberwolves +9.5 -110 (8x)Won ML +400 (1/2x) +7.50
Under 184.5 -110 (4x) +4.00


Magic +6 -108 (4x) ML +210 (1/2x) +5.05
Over 197.5 -108 (6x) -6.48

Warriors +4.5 -110 (6x) ML +168 (1.5x) +8.32
Under 196 -105 (3x) middled Over 98.5 -121 2ndH (-0.15)

Team Totals and 1st Half plays basially washed out...slightly beter then 8 units all day...which sucks since I had just about eberything correct outside of the Utah total...



 
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