Monday MLB Discussion

BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD width=225>Monday, June 02, 2008</TD><!-- <td width=80 bgcolor=#FFFFFF>GamePeriod<td> <td width=80 align=center>1stPeriod</td> <td width=80 align=center>2ndPeriod</td> <td width=80 align=center>3rdPeriod</td> <td width=55> </td> </tr>--><TR bgColor=#666666><TD align=middle colSpan=8>Line Changes made within the last 15 Minutes will have a Grey background.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>951</TD><TD width=160>Cincinnati Reds </TD><TD width=130>B Arroyo -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-165</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+115</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>952 </TD><TD width=160>Philadelphia Phillies </TD><TD width=130>K Kendrick -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+145</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>10</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-135</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>953</TD><TD width=160>Florida Marlins </TD><TD width=130>S Olsen -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-180</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+110</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>954 </TD><TD width=160>Atlanta Braves </TD><TD width=130>JJ Reyes -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+160</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-130</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>7:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>955</TD><TD width=160>Arizona Diamondbacks </TD><TD width=130>D Davis -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-185</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+110</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>956 </TD><TD width=160>Milwaukee Brewers </TD><TD width=130>J Suppan -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+165</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-130</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>7:15 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>957</TD><TD width=160>Pittsburgh Pirates </TD><TD width=130>T Gorzelanny -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-140</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+155</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>958 </TD><TD width=160>St Louis Cardinals </TD><TD width=130>A Wainwright -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+120</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-175</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>9:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>959</TD><TD width=160>Chicago Cubs </TD><TD width=130>C Zambrano -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>7½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-175</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>960 </TD><TD width=160>San Diego Padres </TD><TD width=130>C Baek -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+155</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>9:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>961</TD><TD width=160>Colorado Rockies </TD><TD width=130>G Reynolds -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-155</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+140</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>962 </TD><TD width=160>Los Angeles Dodgers </TD><TD width=130>D Lowe -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+135</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-160</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>9:15 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>963</TD><TD width=160>New York Mets </TD><TD width=130>OL Perez -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+140</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>964 </TD><TD width=160>San Francisco Giants </TD><TD width=130>J Sanchez -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-160</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>965</TD><TD width=160>Boston Red Sox </TD><TD width=130>T Wakefield -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+145</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>966 </TD><TD width=160>Baltimore Orioles </TD><TD width=130>J Guthrie -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-165</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>967</TD><TD width=160>New York Yankees </TD><TD width=130>A Pettitte -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+110</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-145</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>968 </TD><TD width=160>Minnesota Twins </TD><TD width=130>L Hernandez -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-130</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+125</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>7:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>969</TD><TD width=160>Cleveland Indians </TD><TD width=130>A Laffey -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+105</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>10</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-145</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>970 </TD><TD width=160>Texas Rangers </TD><TD width=130>D Mathis -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-125</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+125</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>9:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>971</TD><TD width=160>Detroit Tigers </TD><TD width=130>K Rogers -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-150</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+145</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>972 </TD><TD width=160>Oakland Athletics </TD><TD width=130>R Harden -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+130</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-165</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>9:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>973</TD><TD width=160>Los Angeles Angels </TD><TD width=130>E Santana -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+130</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-125</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>974 </TD><TD width=160>Seattle Mariners </TD><TD width=130>J Washburn -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-150</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+105</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE borderColor=#cccccc cellSpacing=1 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>American League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>NY Yankees at Minnesota
Umpire: Darling, Gary


</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>A Pettitte
L Hernandez
Bullpen Availability


</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Boston at Baltimore
Umpire: Marquez, Alfonso


</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>T Wakefield
J Guthrie
Bullpen Availability


</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Cleveland at Texas
Umpire: N/A


</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>A Laffey
D Mathis
Bullpen Availability


</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Detroit at Oakland
Umpire: N/A


</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>K Rogers
R Harden
Bullpen Availability


</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>LA Angels at Seattle
Umpire: N/A


</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>E Santana
J Washburn
Bullpen Availability


</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>National League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:00 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Florida at Atlanta
Umpire: N/A


</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>S Olsen
J Reyes
Bullpen Availability


</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Cincinnati at Philadelphia
Umpire: N/A


</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>B Arroyo
K Kendrick
Bullpen Availability


</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Arizona at Milwaukee
Umpire: N/A


</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>D Davis
J Suppan
Bullpen Availability


</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:15 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Pittsburgh at St. Louis
Umpire: Rakos, Shawn


</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>T Gorzelanny
A Wainwright
Bullpen Availability


</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Chi. Cubs at San Diego
Umpire: N/A


</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>C Zambrano
C Baek
Bullpen Availability


</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Colorado at LA Dodgers
Umpire: N/A


</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>G Reynolds
D Lowe
Bullpen Availability


</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:15 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>NY Mets at San Francisco
Umpire: N/A


</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>O Perez
J Sanchez
Bullpen Availability


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Last edited:
Hard to not like the Phillies ! I expected Philly about -140 ! I like the Reds lineup and all but wow , road chalk !
 
SportsNut said:
Okay I read that wrong they are -140 was looking at the RL I guess...
Click to expand...

approaching half of bankroll bet time if that was their SU odds
icon12.gif
 
REDS @ PHILLY :

1st trend :
Reds Game #1 of series in 2008 : 6-13 (2-8 after a WIN)
Philly Game # 1 of series in 2008 : 15-4 (10-2 after a WIN)

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg4 align=left><TD>Category</TD><TD>W</TD><TD>L</TD><TD>ERA</TD><TD>G</TD><TD>GS</TD><TD>CG</TD><TD>SHO</TD><TD>SV</TD><TD>SVO</TD><TD>INN</TD><TD>H</TD><TD>R</TD><TD>ER</TD><TD>HR</TD><TD>HBP</TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>IBB</TD><TD>SO</TD><TD>SB</TD><TD>CS</TD><TD>PK</TD><TD>BK</TD><TD>WP</TD><TD>AVG</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>< 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0.69</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>13.0</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>11</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.182</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>6.54</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>31.2</TD><TD align=right>47</TD><TD align=right>26</TD><TD align=right>23</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>32</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.336</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>7.20</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>15.0</TD><TD align=right>19</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>12</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.333</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

My feeling is with days of rest if there is any inconsistencies with a SP from year to year such as normal rest vs extended rest I tend to suscribe to the fact that if a SP is going good he tends to like the ball every 5 days when he is having a down year usually the extra rest becomes a benefit. Simply my opinion. So I look at Arroyo and when he was in a better groove in 2005 and 2006 this was the case , best on 5 days rest . Last year he started to really struggle and was much better on extended rest .

Arroyo was shelled an exited quickly vs ATL (Sunday v Glavine) before starting Game 2 @ Shea vs NYM on Saturday night 5/10. Since then he has closely resembled the guy he was in 2006 and was on the right track winning @ STL before the ATL start which came in the day an achilles heel for him . About 32.1 innings in 5 starts (all REDS WINS)with 28 hits and 7 earned runs. Thats 1.95 ERA 13 Bbs and 32 Ks . His most impressive work was on short rest @ home vs Florida and Pittsburgh . On normal rest @ LAD and @ SD his work was solid okay but he faced a LAD team who doesnt hit RHSP and well SD hasnt hit much all season . Those 2 starts 11.1 Inn 16 hits 5runs 4BBs 12 Ks so nothing exceptional. The 336 BAA should be an issue when he faces Rollins , Utley , Howard .

Recent history doesnt say much just 2 starts vs them since 2004 but 1-4(1-5 team) in 6 career starts. He did face them early on thsi year allowing 4 Hrs . The line was 5.2 Inn 9 H 5 Rusn all earned 0BBs and 6Ks . Granted this was way back on 4-07 and was a day game vs Cole Hamels on a Monday . Remember Arroyo has issues when he starts in the day as the start which for a blip got him pulled from teh rotation was the day game on a Sunday@ ATL which resulted ina 14-7 game vs one of the worst day SP in Glavine.

Kyle Kendrick (R) Previous Starts vs. Cincinnati

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="13%">Date</TD><TD width="12%">Opposition</TD><TD width="8%">Scr</TD><TD width="12%">Line</TD><TD width="5%">W/L</TD><TD width="5%">IP</TD><TD width="5%">H</TD><TD width="5%">R</TD><TD width="5%">ER</TD><TD width="4%">SO</TD><TD width="4%">BB</TD><TD width="4%">HR</TD><TD width="6%">PIT</TD><TD width="6%">P/IP</TD><TD width="6%">G/F</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/04/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ CIN</TD><TD class=datacell>8-4</TD><TD class=datacell>-113/10.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>5.0</TD><TD class=datacell>8</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>4 </TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>94 </TD><TD class=datacell>18.8 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.80</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>06/26/07</TD><TD class=datacell>CIN</TD><TD class=datacell>11-4</TD><TD class=datacell>-135/10.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>6.0</TD><TD class=datacell>6</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>4 </TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>100 </TD><TD class=datacell>16.7 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.67</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Now Kendrick has faced them twice including this year and found ways to win both . Some may be suprised that Philly is 8-3 when Kendrick starts. Really he has 5 home starts but vs Toronto he lasted 1 inning due to rain which they later lost . His only HOME loss then is 2-1 to Houston and Roy Oswalt in which he was slightily favored.

Really Kendrick has done very well in his home starts and like most young SP sees a huge decline in effectiveness on the road. So at home in 2008 :

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2>05/27/08</TD><TD class=datacell>COL</TD><TD class=datacell>7-4</TD><TD class=datacell>-169/10</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>7.1</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2 </TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>107 </TD><TD class=datacell>14.6 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.67</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2>05/13/08</TD><TD class=datacell>ATL</TD><TD class=datacell>5-4</TD><TD class=datacell>-137/10</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>6.0</TD><TD class=datacell>6</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>3 </TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>97 </TD><TD class=datacell>16.2 </TD><TD class=datacell>2.00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2>05/02/08</TD><TD class=datacell>SF</TD><TD class=datacell>6-5</TD><TD class=datacell>-161/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>6.0</TD><TD class=datacell>8</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>3 </TD><TD class=datacell>6</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>93 </TD><TD class=datacell>15.5 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.40</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/16/08</TD><TD class=datacell>HOU</TD><TD class=datacell>1-2</TD><TD class=datacell>-113/9</TD><TD class=datacell>L/U</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2 </TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>96 </TD><TD class=datacell>13.7 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.67

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>< 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>9.00</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>5.0</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.381</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>4.40</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>28.2</TD><TD align=right>36</TD><TD align=right>21</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>11</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.303</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>3.79</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>19.0</TD><TD align=right>18</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.247</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

This year and in his young career LHB are killing him .345 & 1.95 WHIP with a 3.29 BAA and 1.76 WHIP.

So really Philly is 3-1 when he starts at home as I wont count the RAIN game and while he was 7-1 in 11 starts in 2007 at home the team also won 2 of his 3 no-decisions. Which the lost was actually his best HOME ND start going 7 innings allowing 2 runs to which the club lost 4-2. So really Kendrick has 15 starts @ Citizen and his team is 12-3 in those games.

Reds are ONLY 9-19 away (3-12 L15 games)and Philly is 18-12 at home. The OVER is 21-6 away for Cincy when the number is 10 or 10.5 while Philly at home with those totals is 48-35 past 2 + seasons. To further this REDS are 5-11 away vs RHSP defeating Bush , Villanueva , Correria and Wellenmeyer by 1 run and lastly Pelfrey in Game 2 of the DH vs NY where Arroyo started to turn it around. Since then they lost all 3 @ LAD vs RHSP and then @ SD vs Maddux. Suprisingly with alot of LHB they have struggled on offense vs RHs 9(18 inning game) , 1 , 2 , 5 , 7 , 0 , 2 , 2 , 4 , 10 (correria exited quickly due to injury), 3 5 , 3 , 4, 12 , 2 . Thast 10 of 16 games with 4 runs or less.

Another issue on the road is Cincys pen 1-5 with a 5.32 ERA to just about 4.00 at home. Worse is all but Cordero and Affedlt have struggled badly with BAA ranging from 304 to 375 foir Mercker. Affedlt has struggled some lately but did manage 1 run and 4 hits in 4 innings on the road in his last 10 appearances. Think 9.1 Inn 14 hits and 8 runs 3bbs 9Ks but 4hrs . Philly is just 9-8 at home vs RHP while there pen was 3.22 ERA before today ...and actaully -1.5 RL is 5-12 at home with Philly vs Reds...

Jay Bruce factor ? Bruce went 13-for-22 with six walks, two homers, two steals and six RBIs in his first six games but this is his 1st away game . Reds are 13 -2 at home sweeping 3 three game sets but just 3-7 in the 10 road games inbewteen.......

Right now expecting another nice day here on the EAST Coast so as the earlier poster mentioned tough to pass on the over . The fact this is 10.5 though seems a tad high to me though with both teams suprisingly doing less vs RHSP but these two SP terrible splits vs LHBs which we see alot of good ones here. However kendricks 2 career starts vs Cincy both went Over and they were 10.5 totals facing Homer Baily and Josh Fogg to which Arroyo is clearly better except that these games went over rather easily...Also tough to pass on Philly ML but want to see where this line ends ups and might entertain REDS +1.5 RL..

Reds 9-24 L33 as Road dogs . Arroyo is 6-20 L26 away.
<LI class=more>Phillies are 20-6 in their last 26 during game 1 of a series. <LI class=more>Phillies are 43-19 in their last 62 home games vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morehot>Phillies are 10-1 in Kendricks last 11 starts during game 1 of a series.<LI class=more>Over is 44-20-4 in Reds last 68 vs. National League East. <LI class=more>Over is 43-21-2 in Reds last 66 Monday games.<LI class=morehot>Over is 12-2 in Phillies last 14 during game 1 of a series.<LI class=morehot>Over is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings in Philadelphia.
Looking at Philly ML and Over 10.5 if they dont move much from where they are now:cheers:
 
Twins/Yankee Over considerations

Hernanadez
- 5-0 to Over last 5 home games (received 6 runs/game support minimum)
- 8-1 to Over last 9 overall (Under exception vs Colorado, no suprise)
- has a 2.08 WHIP for his last 3 starts vs AL teams
- conceded 7 ER in 4 inns vs NYY last season (3.50 WHIP)

Pettitte
- Yet to have a road Over result (5-0-1 to Under) but his games haven't lacked runs: 7, 8, 8, 10, 8 & 6 totals.
- Opponents have totaled at least 5 runs in 5 of his last 7 starts.

Umpire
- 7-3 to Over last 10
- 3-1 to Over last 4 Yankee road games
- 3-2 to Over last 5 Twins home games
- 1 Pettite start for an Over
- 2-2-1 last 5 Hernandez starts (all NL home teams/pitcher batting spot)

Minnesota
- has totaled at least 4 runs in 11 of their last 13 games.
- has totaled at least 5 runs in 9 of their last 12 home games.
- avg's 5.66 runs for their last 6 games vs lefty starters

New York
- avg's 6.27 runs for their last 11 games, after avging 2.72 runs the 11 games before that.
- has gone 12 games w/out being held to less than 6 runs over consecutive games.
 
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I really like this card at first sight which is a rarity when there isn't a full slate of games. Here are my leans.

FLA/ATL UNDER 9.5
Brewers
Cardinals RL
Giants 5inn
Rangers
 
Grind_4_Mine said:
Like the Yanks/Twins Hova 9 -120... waiting to hear your take on that one, Nut
Click to expand...


So far pretty good this series with the totals . Had the UNDER 9 and twinkies +1.5 RL ( hate fading my Yanks ML) . Hard to not like NYY here with Minny somewhat struggling vs LHSP at 5-7 so far . Yanks are 21-11 and 12-6 away when the total is 9 or 9.5. Which really speaks ho w poorly they are when they are facing solid SP and 8 or 8.5 s total (think 4-18 last 2 years at that number)

I think alot depends on the SP here . The pens have to be taxed and Blackburn exiting early couldnt help .

We know the Yankee bats have awoken but after stranding so many runners in 1st two games I kinda saw today coming . Think Twins had 6 straight overs at home before today and 12-4-1 OVER at home L17 games.

Both teams left alot of guys on today and really all series.

Last year pettitte was tough on Minny like he has been in his AL career and Livan as expected was roughed up vs NYY.

Pettitte is an UNDER guy this year 9-2 UNDER meaning he hasnt received much run support which we know the Yankee bats sucked forever till ARod returned and Livan 9-3 over and 5-1 Over at home. He is beginning to struggle allowing 41 hits and 3 bss 4ks in 24.2 innings L 4 starts. allowing 20 runs and 17 earned. Allowing at least 3 runs every time going past the 6th once. I wonder though since he is known to have a rubber arm if he is shaky if Minny asks to take one for the team. key for NYY is Livan 363 BAA vs LHSP....

Biggest issue I have with the total is guessing what NYY scores and what Minny scores. I mean I think NYY scores but they have been stranding runners still should see 6 runs and in that 5 to 7 range I think worst case. I dont know how much Minny scores if Pettitte can go deep and the pen is okay thinking 3 runs since he has done well at the Metrodome in the past. He was throiwng real well before Balt but missed that start which had solid results but his Ks really dropped after having good stuff and high Ks.

Twins vs LHSP at home shoutout 1-0 by Saunders , beat Bale 4-3 vs Bale with the damage off him , lost 4-0 to Lee , won 7-6 vs Rogers after the Tigers pen choked away a 6-3 lead in the 7th inning , defetaed Lester 7-6 to which they hit Lester 8hits , 5 runs and 3 earned in 5 2/3 innings ....but really not much vs LHSP....away 12 , 5 , 2 ,13 ,2 ,2 and 3 runs....

So really I like NYY here more then anything to figure the total little suprised it opened 9.5 after throwing somany 9s out there in the series and opening Wangs game at 8.5 ..top of the Twins lineup hits LHP but Cuddyer , Young , and Harris havent hit LH yet and Kubel and Monroe at DH have done zip...32-171 ohrs 11rbis ....for that group...so thats the challenge if NY starnds runners and scores 6 does twins do 3 or better and on the fence with that thinking they get 3 but even could sit at 5 runs....Big thing I see is Livan's last 2 starts vs KC and Texas were struggles and they are built on solid LHBs which NY is......

LEAN: NYY ML (maybe -1.5 RL) and if at 9 like over somewhat ....:shake:



 
Down the card here's my thoughts for tomorrow

reds/phillies O10.5
Marlins/Braves U10
Brewers -130 (hit it for $200 at -125 already)
Cards RL +125
Cubs -170 (maybe RL, but being in SD scares me)
Dodgers -170
Mets -105
Red Sox -105
Yanks -140
Indians -140
Tigers +160 (hit it for $150 already)
Angels -120 (hit it for $200 already)
 
Birds/RSox Over considerations

Guthrie
- is 5-2 to Under at home, 1 of the 2 Overs vs Boston
- opponents avg 4.50 runs/game when he starts
- hasn't gone 7.0 inns in consecutive starts, coming off a 7.0 inn effort
- BAL O/U 2-2 when they win his starts, O/U 2-6 when they lose.
- outside of 1 good start in Boston, had a 4.36 ERA & 2.13 WHIP last season vs the RSox (2-0 to Over)

Wakefield
- is O/U 5-2-1, avg 12.00 runs in starts where neither team gets shutout
- avg's 3.75 walks coming off a 5+ SO game (SO 8 last start)
- 1.66 WHIP & 7.71 ERA his last 4 starts
- O's tagged him for 9 ER off 10.2 inns last season (2 Overs)

Umpire
- 5-3 to Over last 8
- 3-1 to Over last 4 Boston games
- 4-1 to Over last 4 O's games
- 1-1 for 2 Wakefield starts
- no Guthrie stats

Baltimore
- have to go back to August of 2004 to find the last time they were held to 4 runs or less over 5 straight home games (off 2, 2, 3 & 4 run totals entering Monday's game).
- opponents avg 6.25 runs thru their last 8 games.

Boston
- when they haven't been shutout (2 times), have scored at least 3 runs in 17 straight road games (avg 5.17 runs)
 
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The rest :

Looking at Under 9.5 ATL ( doubt its 10 come tmrw) and ATL after being swept . Florida couldnt hold a 5-1 lead today . Oslen already shutout ATL this year and reyes seemed to right himself last outing. Both teams offensively dont do much vs LHSP and ATL is 15-6 UNDER vs LHs. Prefer to play teams in Game 2 at home after road struggles but may jump here depending on price. ATL 8-4 at home vs LHSP and FLA 4-6 away vs LHSP beginning last leg of road trip.....Marlins 3-11 L14 Monday games and 18-40 L58 in ATL.

With Suppan doing so well at home and Brewers waking up offensively facing a Zona team struggling vs RHSP sending out a LH in Davis could spell trouble however remember Davis is an exBrewer facing his old team. Might lean UNDER . Zona only 4-9 away vs RHP and Milw is 5-2 vs LHP at home losing 3-0 and 3-1.....

Cant figure out Gorzelanny still dont think he is 100% but havent seen him vs NYM and he was okay in that game huge early lead helped. Wainright is real solid and Cards are 7-4 vs LHP at home. No reason to take Pitt with Gorzelannys current form vs ane ACE like Wainright....

Zambrano is obviously real good huge issue with Cubbies away vs RHSP sitting at 4-9. With wins vs Morris and Moehler plus Lohse in his worst start a game which he claimed Cubbies hit some pitches that just missed and Harang who lost 3-0 to Zambrano. Baek gets the start and in his SD debut struckout the side and really was good in most of his appearances this year . Terrible to start the year and terrible vs DET after an 8 day layoff where he allowed 3 hrs in 2 innings. Outside of that he is 8 inning 4 hits 0runs and 4bbs 6 ks inthe 4 appearances around that game. Even with that horror show 25.2 inn 19 hit 11 runs 4hrs 10bb 15ks since his initial 2 appearances. Thats 3.86 ERA . Take out that DET game 23.2 Inn 13 hits 5 runs 10bb 15ks 1.90 ERA. So which Baek shows up ?? If you look closely while Cubs found ways to win on there 7-0 homestand they faced a LAD team who couldnt score vs RHSP and a COL team that couldnt hold a lead and was missing 3 or 4 hitters . Lee's absence could be helpful getting a LH bat in there . Curious game because Zambrano is off a 130 pitch outing and Cubbies pen definetly got some work this week . Zambrano had been very tough on SD especially @ Petco but they didnt fare that badly in CHI vs him getting 3 runs . Sort of like the under but if Zambrano is not right then 7.5 is low and Baek is a question mark as well...Zambrano has been sic at night and on 5 days rest past few years the pitch count is a concern but he has repatedly thrown 120 + and even in concecutive starts with little difference at times his worst starts have been off high pitch counts but with such a sound opponent for him thinking SD +1.5 RL and Under .......How doe SD bounce back after being 3 outs from a road sweep?

Lowe finding his form and Reynolds has been solid usually till the 6thinning although weakened bs Philly in the 5th . Somewhat interested in an UNDER . LAD had to fly back West after a night game in NY that went quickly.....

Seems like Sanchez is finding a groove again. Perez has 2 issues walks and Hrs at the wrong time. He has never won @ SF and they will have to fly out West as well after a night game .....He is tough on LHB which NY is made up of mostly....Mets have done well vs LHSP this season...still thinking SFG......at least 1st 5 Innings....

With Balt looking at the home team to avoid the sweep hopefully Ortiz sits again. Wake was real good @ Seattle after a rough stretch. Simply put Guthrie is pitching better of late has better history vs his opponent and is home ......and a doggie as well....

Mathis has been solid except his 1st L start @ Minny he has already done well @ Cle 7hits and 1 run in 6 innings. Laffey is one of the hottest SP in the game . Problem is he never faced Texas , is makinghis 2nd road start of the season and his team is not hitting . If this is low scoring then TEX has the edge cause of its lineup. Mathis has been tough on RHB and with hafner down its basically Sizemore who is hitting well of late I think at least HR wise and Dellucci ....so that is an edge as well. The Rangers pen was terrible today witha 9 run 7th after they took a 3 run lead in the 6th...think Texas maybe 1st 5 cause that pen scares me ....Under possibly cause its at night...

Harden throwing well and DET struggles vs RHP but is much better at night . Remember Kenny Rogers love his home parks and well Oakland was ocne a home to which he is 8-2 L10 starts facing them including 5-1 @ Oakland but hasnt seen them since his resurgence in 2006. Last time out he was excellent @ LAA losing 1-0 shutting them down for 7 innings. Outside of the game @ KC he has been solid in 4 of his last 5 away ...so thinking Under with the absence of RHBs with Sweeney and Thomas on the DL. At this price like DET some being the A's lineup is thin.....maybe an UNDER 8 or 1st 5 innings under....

LAA just not hitting but Kendrick is back .....Washburn facing his old team...not interested yet......
:cheers:
 
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I think Baltimore is worth a play tomorrow.
1. umpire has been very strong for home dogs last 3 years 15-6.
2. Wakefield is 2-8 last 10 on the road.
3. Guthrie 2.70 era vs Boston playing on best rest
4. Baltimore played Trachsel last 5 innings so their pen is rested
5. Boston starts a series at home with Tampa Bay the leader of their division at home the next day. Think this is a significant distraction. Not nearly as likely to utilize their full resources here.
6. Mora, Millar and Hernandez have all hit Wakefield fairly well with 7 home runs.
Only 2 real negatives.At best Baltimore's recent play can be called mediocre and on a very short sample (2 games) Guthrie not good on Mondays
 
Betcrimes-looking at Minn/NYY stats

Did I read that right??The home team is 10-1 when he umpires

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="19%">Umpire</TD><TD width="4%">G</TD><TD width="7%">W/L</TD><TD width="7%">Avg</TD><TD width="7%">Pit</TD><TD width="7%">Str.</TD><TD width="7%">B</TD><TD width="7%">Str.%</TD><TD width="7%">SO</TD><TD width="7%">BB</TD><TD width="7%">K/BB</TD><TD width="7%">HR</TD><TD width="7%">O/U</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Gary Darling</TD><TD class=datacell>11</TD><TD class=datacell>10-1</TD><TD class=datacell>8.73</TD><TD class=datacell>271</TD><TD class=datacell>171</TD><TD class=datacell>101</TD><TD class=datacell>62.9</TD><TD class=datacell>12.4</TD><TD class=datacell>6.0</TD><TD class=datacell>2.06</TD><TD class=datacell>2.18</TD><TD class=datacell>7-4</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Clev/Texas under

Laffey
- 0-1 under on the road this year
- 2-4 o/u on the year
- has given up a total of 5 earned runs in his last 5 starts

Mathis
- 1-1 o/u this year
- gave up 6 runs and 1 run in 2 starts this year
- pitched in a 2-1 win against cleveland this year

Umpire

Cleveland
- 3-10 o/u their last 13 road games

Texas
- Texas is 4-5 o/u in their last 9 home games
 
DJ Tanner said:
Betcrimes-looking at Minn/NYY stats

Did I read that right??The home team is 10-1 when he umpires

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="19%">Umpire</TD><TD width="4%">G</TD><TD width="7%">W/L</TD><TD width="7%">Avg</TD><TD width="7%">Pit</TD><TD width="7%">Str.</TD><TD width="7%">B</TD><TD width="7%">Str.%</TD><TD width="7%">SO</TD><TD width="7%">BB</TD><TD width="7%">K/BB</TD><TD width="7%">HR</TD><TD width="7%">O/U</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Gary Darling</TD><TD class=datacell>11</TD><TD class=datacell>10-1</TD><TD class=datacell>8.73</TD><TD class=datacell>271</TD><TD class=datacell>171</TD><TD class=datacell>101</TD><TD class=datacell>62.9</TD><TD class=datacell>12.4</TD><TD class=datacell>6.0</TD><TD class=datacell>2.06</TD><TD class=datacell>2.18</TD><TD class=datacell>7-4</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Click to expand...


When I look for some sort of trend involving home or away teams with certains umps I try to look at the past 3 years . Darling is 10-1 for home teams but thats also because every home team was favored except one which the LINE was clearly off. Pat Maholm and Pitt early on were -110 @ Florida vs Hendrickson and lost . Otherwise what that 10-1 really says is the FAV is 10-1 cause the lone road team win was Aaron Cook as road chalk @ SFG 3-2...home dogs are 9-14 previous two years compared to home favs @ 31-18....:cheers:

 
Bookie_Nightmare said:
why bosox is a dog now ???
who's hurt ???
Click to expand...

I think Ortiz sat yesterday and we saw a 20 cent drop so I would assume he is out again . Probably should have been about a PK to start and Ortiz absence IMO makes Balt -120 correct....:shake:We have Balt best SP vs Boston #5 SP....
 
tuck321 said:
I think Baltimore is worth a play tomorrow.
1. umpire has been very strong for home dogs last 3 years 15-6.
2. Wakefield is 2-8 last 10 on the road.
3. Guthrie 2.70 era vs Boston playing on best rest
4. Baltimore played Trachsel last 5 innings so their pen is rested
5. Boston starts a series at home with Tampa Bay the leader of their division at home the next day. Think this is a significant distraction. Not nearly as likely to utilize their full resources here.
6. Mora, Millar and Hernandez have all hit Wakefield fairly well with 7 home runs.
Only 2 real negatives.At best Baltimore's recent play can be called mediocre and on a very short sample (2 games) Guthrie not good on Mondays
Click to expand...

I agree here with you and like the TB angle. It 's what I call the afford to lose this game syndrome. Boston won the 1st three its great if they sweep but with TB on deck and as you said them being in 1st place the final game of the set loses luster for Boston. Teams have to lose and I look for spots where they sort of can afford to lose a game...:cheers:
 
Milw , SD , Balt and NYY seem to be definite plays although I may elect to play SD +1.5 RL.....whatever I mentioned yesterday consider LEANS for me still.....be back in abit
 
Liking the O's, Yanks RL/ML, STL RL, and Tex/Cle under so far.

Mathis for Texas has some nasty stuff and hard to argue with Laffey's early success. CLE can't hit for shit. Rangers have had troubles with lefties, splits significantly favor VR. Also of note:

Laffey - 62% Groundball, 0 HR in 39.2 IP
Mathis - 73% Groundball, 0 HR, in 11.1 IP

Wind in 18MPH from left, could make it tricky...
 
I did play the Brewers. Hard to argue with a team that is 15-5 last 20 at home. A pitcher that is 15 and 5 last 20 at home when they are going good and are playing with a weak pitcher the next day.
A real issue for me is the Yankee pen. With a monster game the next day I doubt they use Edgar Ramirez tonight. Not confident at all of the middle of that game for the Yankees. Probably passing the game. Have umpire and days of the week angles that argue Livian has a fair game to night but who knows?
 
I think Ortiz sat yesterday and we saw a 20 cent drop so I would assume he is out again . Probably should have been about a PK to start and Ortiz absence IMO makes Balt -120 correct....:shake:We have Balt best SP vs Boston #5 SP....
Click to expand...

Looks like your assumption is right. Boston Herald says Ortiz felt a pop in his wrist during a swing and x-rays came out negative - just a sprain. considered day-to-day and seems unlikely to play tonight.
 
tuck321 said:
I did play the Brewers. Hard to argue with a team that is 15-5 last 20 at home. A pitcher that is 15 and 5 last 20 at home when they are going good and are playing with a weak pitcher the next day.
A real issue for me is the Yankee pen. With a monster game the next day I doubt they use Edgar Ramirez tonight. Not confident at all of the middle of that game for the Yankees. Probably passing the game. Have umpire and days of the week angles that argue Livian has a fair game to night but who knows?
Click to expand...


I tend to agree with the pen in NYY. I think its tough to tell which side of there relievers shows up . The problem with NYY relievers is when they have been bad they have been terrible. Especially Ohlendorf , Farnsworth and Hawkins .

Guys like Britton and Veras have always done the job but in no pressure situations. Not sure the extent of availability of Ramirez and Rivera but I do know if there is a chance to win Girardi will play to win. Rivera has worked a ton lately after sort of falling into limbo when we couldnt hit or score . Ramirez has just 16 innings of work.

So the pen concerns me in a 1 or 2 run game to a degree but I think we have some capable arms out there just not the names to go with the talent.

DAN'S DAY: With Joba Chamberlain slated to throw between 65-70 pitches in his first start tomorrow, the Yankees will call up Dan Giese from Triple-A to serve as the team's long reliever. Jeff Karstens had been considered the front-runner, but he injured his groin Saturday. Giese, 31, is 4-2 with a 2.02 ERA in 12 games (nine starts).
"I'm at a loss for words, I'm just excited," Giese told reporters in Rochester. "The whole reason I signed over here was to put on the pinstripes."

I guess it boils down to Minny lack of hitting vs LHSP minus say Gomez , Casilla , Mauer and Morneau at the top to which Pettitte has good splits v LHB so far along with good success previously vs Minny. The rest of the lineup as I mentioned had done little think it 32-171 with ZERO Hrs and 11 Rbis vs Lefties so far and we are now 1/3 through the season....

So Twins offense could be limited here and really hard to look at what Livan is doing last 3 or 4 times out and see a 364 BAA vs LHBs and think he will turn it around here. The thing I would say working for him is the whole trip compared to home NYY lineup is not delivering with MOB . So they could strand alot of runners and allow Livan to be effective in that manner .........

Serious question Tuck ? How do you way trends and stats for SP on certain days ( ex: Monday , Thursday , Saturday ..??) .

It seems something that would be very arbitrary . If you ave a chance interested in how you look at that stuff and where you compiled it .

The Ump scenario as I said he is really 9-1 for favorites this year which all happen to be home . So not buying his home bias in 2008 especially looking at how Home dogs performed when he called games in 07 and 08......

Price for NYY might seem high but its cheaper then Wang who is less then 100% and RH vs Boonser who while he may be below Livan as quality fgoes his velocity makes him IMO a better risk of succeeding vs NYY....

:cheers:
 
Grind_4_Mine said:
Looks like your assumption is right. Boston Herald says Ortiz felt a pop in his wrist during a swing and x-rays came out negative - just a sprain. considered day-to-day and seems unlikely to play tonight.
Click to expand...


forget to say TUCK glad we agree in MILW . Looks like Jackson is OUT and Upton questionable......

With line moves I try to rationalize why they do or dont happen. Rather then make it some sort of conspiracy theory which we all get trapped into believing at one time or another ......:shake:
 
Big Herm said:
Liking the O's, Yanks RL/ML, STL RL, and Tex/Cle under so far.

Mathis for Texas has some nasty stuff and hard to argue with Laffey's early success. CLE can't hit for shit. Rangers have had troubles with lefties, splits significantly favor VR. Also of note:

Laffey - 62% Groundball, 0 HR in 39.2 IP
Mathis - 73% Groundball, 0 HR, in 11.1 IP

Wind in 18MPH from left, could make it tricky...
Click to expand...


Almost left ya out . Good info on that UNDER and there ground ball ratings....something I will look into:cheers:
 
wind's actually blowing straight in from right field in Arlington, fwiw.

that wind speed and direction, coupled with the heat and humidity creates an updraft where lots of balls leave the yard.
 
Usually go to sports betting stats.com and just ask the free database there. Last night I noticed how well Santana had pitched at home on Sundays and a bet was produced. Today there is a strong tilt toward SF because of how poorly Mets and Perez have done on the road on Mondays. Still waiting on that game to see the ump but days of the week screams Giants. Think that if you do not use days of the week directionally its probably close to useless.
 
Yes, straight in from left is correct. The wind is very tricky in Arlington whichever way it blows... I won't pretend to know about how exactly the wind affects ball movement, but the updraft you mention is not surprising.
 
I'm not betting tonight, but for those researching the Cincy v Philly total...

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 12 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games at home
 
Thanks Tool for the help in Texas . Much appreciated ...heat and humidity a concern for sure down there for the next couple of months....

Thanks as well Tuck. Interesting stuff for sure would have to look at it to see how I could apply it. I like SF to begin with so maybe this can be something to give me that kick in the ass I need at certain teams...:cheers:
 
Blue_Chip said:
I'm not betting tonight, but for those researching the Cincy v Philly total...

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 12 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games at home
Click to expand...

The 1st game I dug into lots of crazy trends for this over if you see my 1st post . Also 21-6 OVER for Reds on the road with 10 and 10.5 totals since the start of 2006.....:shake:good stuff
 
Kendrick at home in his career ....

Less the 6 innings just one time in the reg season minus the rain delay start this year . So 14 of 15 he went at least 6 innings at home. Broken down like this SEVEN starts of 6 innings , TWO starts of 6 + innings and 5 starts of 7 or 7+ he never went 8 or 9 ..
 
Still, concerning Texas, I've never seen a groundball clear the fence and I like the matchup of a never seen before LHP against a team that is below the league average when it comes to hitting lefties. On the other side of the diamond we get Mathis facing a team that averages 3.4 runs per game on the road and is without Hafner (though hard to know whether that is good or bad at this point). Nothing's a slam dunk in this park, especially with young pitchers and questionable defense(at least on the Rangers side of the ball).
 
Today :(unless noted assume 1 unit but could change at anytime )

Reds @ Phillies :

Philles ML -140 and Over 10-125 (if you like reds prefer them +1.5 RL)

Start of a 4 game set which has Cincy dealing with Harang , Voquez and Bailey getting called up for Thursday versus Eaton , Myers and Hamels. Which I think makes this a big game for Philly despite ending with Myers and Hamels. Myers settled down after a rough 1st last outing and HOPEFULLY can continue but facing a tougher challenge while Hamels has been terrible for consecutive starts. I had dismissed the Houston game since he can struggle in day starts at times and Houston such a RH heavy lineup but the Fla game at home is a bad sign IMO. Some questions for Philly after this facing 2 solid SP who are better then what they throw and there ace is in a slump. Puts emphasis on this one I believe and checked Reds on the road as dogs on Mondays (Tuck gets the assist) with Reds going 2-5away on mondays since 2007 with Arroyo going 1-3 and all 4 games decided by 1 run. So might look at Cincy +1.5 as well as 7 of 18 home wins for Philly were by 1 run but last wins have been by 2 + since the offense settled in....

-Basically both lineups are doing well of late and Jay Bruce has provided an exceptional spark. Both SP struggle when facing LHB and Kendricks plate will be full facing Jr , Bruce and Dunn but no cakewalk for Arroyo seeing probably 5 maybe 6 solid ones. Kendrick is 12-3 at home when he starts and Phillys play well in series openers winning 15 of 19 while reds have lost 13 of 19 game 1s. Just go back to window 1 and you will see all the trends that favor Philly....

Reds 9-24 L33 as Road dogs . Arroyo is 6-20 L26 away.

<LI class=more>Phillies are 20-6 in their last 26 during game 1 of a series. <LI class=more>Phillies are 43-19 in their last 62 home games vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morehot>Phillies are 10-1 in Kendricks last 11 starts during game 1 of a series. <LI class=more>Over is 44-20-4 in Reds last 68 vs. National League East. <LI class=more>Over is 43-21-2 in Reds last 66 Monday games. <LI class=morehot>Over is 12-2 in Phillies last 14 during game 1 of a series. <LI class=morehot>Over is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings in Philadelphia.
. Over 21-6 for reds away with 10 or 10.5 totals:shake:
 
Well, Mathis gave up a HR and then got some help on defense to close out an inning that could have been much worse.
 
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