Monday lines and discussion

i kinda like ATL
NJ has had a better season(barely) and they get 6.5, and now philly gets only 5? that makes no sense... ATL is the play
 
STEED said:
BAR,

what u think about dal @ orl game?

(seriously)
Click to expand...
Dallasw looked bad today. A lot of that was Detroit defense and Dallas had no fire in their bellies today. Dwight Howard should have a field day and Hedo as well. Dallas doesn't guard very well off the dribble at times. Hedo is playing at a great level right now. Injuries and a rough trip may catch up with the Mavs in this spot. Would lean ORL the more I think about it.
 
I also like ATL -5 pts against Philly. ATL at home are a different bunch then when they're on the road. They play with more confidence.

Should be a good battle of big men with Yao squaring off against Al Jefferson. Leaning towards the under here.
 
I think that Dallas is a great play today (I believe that they will do the same journey as Detroit did a month a go). Checking Denver as well, but it is hard to trust such a poor road team...
 
19 of Nawlins last 22 games have been decided by 9+ point margins

------------------------------

Clippers are 0-5 SU & ATS last 5 road games

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Portland is 5-6 SU & 3-8 ATS since their 17-1 SU & ATS run ended

------------------------------

Houston is 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS their last 7 road games

------------------------------

Phoenix is 5-10 ATS their last 15 home games

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Dallas is 1-5-1 ATS their last 7 road games.

------------------------------

Utah is 7-0 ATS in a home game that follows having lost their previous home game ATS. Utah lost their last home game ATS to NYK.

Utah is 15-7-1 ATS at home this season.

Utah is 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS their last 13 games.
 
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phi@atl
tough call here, probably a toss up, hawks play 10x better at home than on the road, philly has been doing better lately 2-1su last 3games and 3-0ats (they manage to kept it close against the magic though the 2 last two wins were against two trash teams in mil and cha), gun to my head probably the hawks

DAL@ORL
I might be nuts but i think there is serious value on the mavs today, yes they are hurt and are missing pg harris, mavs are struggling and have lost two straight however they were against the celtics and the pistons in an afternoon game, the key for them to win tomorrow is to play their offensive sets and not shoot 1000 jumpshots, contain howard and stop the dribble penetration, magic could win by a blowout but crazier things have happened in orlando

Tor@Mia
not interested in laying that many points on the road w the dinasours, not also interested in betting the worst team in the league that will probably suit up 8 players

Hou@Min
Rockets blew out the t-pups in their first meeting in january, rockets are also 7-1su in their last 8 games and are apparently doing better, their bench are surprisingly contributing... t-pups have been a backdoor cover all year long and are 8-2 ats in their last 10, i really want to bet the rockets (i have a rule of not laying chalk on the road for more than 5) but something tells me that not too, crazy things have happened in minny where al jeff just drops a 30-20

no@uta
jazz are playing so damn well and are on a 8 game winning streak, beating the likes of the spurs, rockets and kings, looks like jerry sloan has finally brought this team together... hornets however have been sent down to earth after winning a ton of games losing their last two, the match ups for tomorrow should be interesting as we will be able to watch a battle of two of the best young pgs in the league today, utah will have an advantage in the sg position if pargo starts and mo sits, hornets are getting molested by that small backcourt... at first glance its obvious utah, i wouldn't be sure though, hornets have 3 days off for this game and have time to regroup, some cappers also call the hornets a wounded bear that often shows profit

Cha@pho
not interested in playing a weak team w/o their star nor bet a strong team with that much chalk, i wonder how the kitties would do w/o g-wallace

den@por
carmelo is back and he droped 25-10 in his return, im not a big fan of the nuggets on the road, the nuggets also are hurt (chucky, nene n others maybe camby n najera), portland will be playing their 5th homestand, they are back on earth after an amazing run, their first four homestands had them going 2-2su and 0-4 ats, yup that's right 0-4 ats at home, weird i should say however i think this is a good spot for portland as they had 3 days off for this one, roy is an allstar and played like an allstar last game w/ a triple double, a banged up jump shooting team vs a defense oriented team w/ a deep bench, portland it is

chi@sea
sonics are on a 3game win streak, did i just say that? let me repeat sonics are on a 3game win streak, yes they are playing better ball but beating a tired spurs and knicks team and defeating a LBJ less team is probably average.. bulls got benny g back and almost had the kings, i like the bulls here as i don't think sonics get 4 in a row, did i just say 4 in a row? but not ready to lay chalk on the road w the baby bulls yet

leans: Mavs, blazers, rockets
 
Wounded bear???
Sick puppy is closer to reality. I wasn't impressed with Portland and they currently in the 9th place at the West and Hornets will slow down as well. I don't see them ending this season in the top three and the only reason that with some dumb luck they will finish fourth is that Utah and Houston had their problems. I think that Hornets will finish sixth after Lakers and Utah, only to be eliminated by the Spurs in the first round.
Utah + Dallas (only ML, don't see them losing SU and winning the line) are my strongest bets tonight, maybe I will find some more value later on...
 
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bk/bkn/5510292.html


Rockets' hybrid offense clicks
Adelman uses whatever elements work in situation

MINNEAPOLIS — Rick Adelman had all kinds of ideas and plans for the Rockets' offense. Then the season started.

He has them tucked away somewhere, the results of years of coaching and offensive success. But Adelman has had to adjust some of the plan, postpone much of it, and junk a portion.

The result has been an offense different than the one he imagined. There are touches of the philosophies sprinkled around, but concepts have been superseded by what has worked. And despite all the changes — and some injuries and illnesses — the Rockets' offense seems to have found itself.

"It's like any other system," Adelman said. "In this league, you have to go with the talent you have. You can't manufacture something if it's not good for everybody. We've tried to tweak things and put some stuff in."

Scoring average rises

The Rockets do seem to be getting somewhere. In the 10 games (including eight wins) since the previous game against the Timberwolves, whom they face tonight, the Rockets averaged 100.6 points, making 46.8 percent of their shots. Prior to that surge, the Rockets had been averaging 94.5 points, making 43.9 percent of their shots.

The Rockets have not moved fully to the Adelman offense, choosing to emphasize Yao in the low blocks and in pick-and-rolls with Tracy McGrady. Injuries to Rafer Alston, Aaron Brooks and McGrady also have been factors.
"When (McGrady) was out, I said, 'We're going to run our stuff,' " Adelman said. "We know it works. You have to make harder cuts; you have to do things. We're not running, but we're trying to do some things."


There was so much greater emphasis on ball and player movement when the Rockets played without McGrady that they no longer try to shoehorn the ball inside, a tendency that stagnated their offense and led to some of the season's worst losses. They became balanced by necessity without McGrady and have seen at least four players score in double figures, a rarity early in the season, in each of their past six games.


"I think the guys really did a great job of learning the system, playing off the ball, moving the ball, playing off each other extremely well, getting Yao the ball, letting him put pressure on the defense, kicking it out to the shooters and, most important, knocking down shots," Mc- Grady said of the offensive improvement that began when he was out. "Rafer got more aggressive. Shane (Battier) got more aggressive on the offensive end. Luis (Scola) is playing with a great deal of confidence. The young guys got a chance to play."


Still, the offense is more dependent on play calls than Adelman prefers. Though some of those plays are typical of Adelman — getting McGrady catch-and-shoot opportunities around screens and getting Yao rolling to the low post — there has been little use of Yao on the high post and less freewheeling motion.

Execution remains critical

"What we'd like to do is when people get used to doing certain things, read what the defense is taking from you," Adelman said. "We're still very predictable in running different sets. We almost have to make calls to change the way we're going to approach a certain play or set. You'd like to have that happen just in the flow of it and not have to make a call.

"But that's just typical. I think this is all new to the guys. We've kind of responded with certain things we think are good for certain players and the team itself. We kind of stayed with that and made it pretty simple."
Lately, Adelman has found a way to make it work. Though the style has changed, that was the plan.


"You get to a point that you have to execute it right," Adelman said. "You can keep adding stuff, but if you don't do it right, it's not going to help. You're better off ... zeroing in on things that are good and executing those right, because if your talent is good enough, you're going to be able to score."
Click to expand...
 
Lets see what we have today:

Philly +5 : First off most of us thought NJN had value when they played @ ATL a couple days ago. Saw the line move up and I thought no way do I touch NJ. So why open Philly short here? Is it because we dont realize how well the Sixers are actually playing last few games? They won @ Charlotte , smoked Milw and lost by2 at home vs ORL. ATL won in Philly but the core Sixers played terrible outside of Green. Think 14 for 44 FGs from Miller , Iggy , Williams and Dalembert. Think that improves.

Now also from BetCrimes data which I hopefully APPLIED correctly.

Eastern teams 2nd game home off 5+ game trips are 10-16-1 ATS as FAVS
Eastern teams 2nd game home off 5 + game trips are 9-15-2 ATS playing in conference
Eastern teams 2nd game home off 5 + game trips are 4-13 -1 ATS home vs conference teams as favs


Dallas @ Orlando : Expected -3.5 here. Dallas is shorthanded with Harris and Stack out plaing B2B. While Orl is playing 3rd in 4 days and really had tough games in Philly and Indy on the weekend. A tough game here for me. See the value in Dallas but yesterday was UGLY. Not sure if they can rebound here to play a better game. What sticks out for me is ORL hosting Det and Bos as small dogs and winning both by a bucket. Now you get the same caliber team in Dallas and your favored by 4.5 pts...just seems off to me ...leaning Dallas...

NYK -5 : This tends to fall into the same spot as NJN vs Milw and ATL vs NJN when teams returned home from west coast swings on 1 dys rest and desperate for a win covered as favs.

LAC has been w/o Maggs and Kaman and it looks like Maggs will return but Kaman lost a few to many LBs while being sick. I think for either to miss multiple games because of the FLU means they had a serious strain and probably lost some strength in the past week.

Thornton has really struggled past 2 games on the road and its hard pressed to see LA winning a road game with its 2 bets players out or less then 100% even against NYK. Who could have won 4 of 5 on the road if they knew how to close games. They played well early @ LAC this year as well.

Tor @ Miami : Raps are inconsistent on the road and Miami is just battling to many injuries.....no reason to get involved...gun to head Tor ML in a parlay or gets ballsy and take Miami 1st H and if it hits tor 2nd h....but pass

Houston @ Minnesota +5: I know Houston just thumped them and is getting hot. They havent played anyone though...Sea twice , @ Milw , @ Indy ...nice win @ Portland in a good spot and snuck by GSW and SA. Last 7 games Minny is 4-3 should be 5-2 and could be 6-1. They have beaten Pho ,GSW , and lost @ Boston by 1.....they are playing good ball versus good teams and the line isnt to low here considering Hou was -4 @ Indy and won by 3 and -5.5 @ Milw who is pretty terrible...like the dog

NO @ Utah: Actually lean NO off 2 bad games. They got embarrassed earlier @ Utah which mkes this significant for them with consecutive losses IMO . They also face a Utaj team playing its 7th game in 10 days. Not much value but didnt expect more then 3 here

Char @ Pho: Suns are just not playing well and Charlotte has looked terrible on the road now w/o Wallace. Still a ton of points and better to gamble the dog shows up or pass...even for just a half......Suns do come in with some much needed rest and Char abut to get some after this game...stay away

Den @ Portland : If Camby plays I like Denver. Nuggets play Port tough after that OT game minus Martin and Camby. Now Blazers are struggling some and a good spot for a bad road team in DEN with talent...Last time Port -4.5 but Den had the OT game and minus 2 stars and it was still a struggle...

Chicago -1 : Wally and Green are questionable. Bulls looked solid in Sactown. Just didnt like how SEA looked vs NYK in a great spot and the 2nd H vs Cavs...they have afake 3 game win streak IMO...SA w/o Parker , Cavs w/o LeBron and NYK playng 5th in 7 away by 1 pt!

Nothing in just thinking out loud so far!:cheers:
 
Looks like I will be ON:

Sixers +5 , NYK -5 or better , Hornets +4 , Bulls -115 , Wolves +5.5 or +6 . leans on Dallas , Tor and Denver.
 
Call me MR.PUSH.

Hawks Push +5
Knicks up 9 at half lose SU
Hornets pending down a bundle
Bulls just tipped
Wolves +6 PUSHED
Dallas won SU only 1/2 unit
Tor cruised and I passed
Den just tipped but I passed
 
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