Monday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

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seems super rare we get a 3 game card on a normal summer day! like almost never happens. i think stros in some fashion or a play on hunter brown gotta be looked at. stros rocking and rolling, brown been really good lately and jays offense don't scare me.

could be interesting pitcher prop or hitter props in nats/mets, almost wanna say square it up and play mets/stros parlay! not usually my style but 2 teams playing way better than jays and nats. mets have way better numbers vs lefties so gotta give psterson edge over gore. gore has been so good til his last start in san diego. mets did rough him up last time they faced. peterson vs nats is odd, peterson a k/walk kinda lefty, nats don't k much but they also don't do much damage with the contact they make vs them!

might be a good day to parlay 2 hot teams at not terrible prices!!
 
B.A.R. said:
Let's get it going!
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reporting for duty. terrible card tho! lol.

explained why i had to ghost during past 5-6 days in my "im back" thread. just more crappy news with the wife. but she at least back home now so i can get back to focusing a bit on capping and going across river, several days i just wanted to stay and sit with her i wasn't gonna worry bout this shit when she needed my support. plus shit was sad for me and took me out of capping mood fast. but now she home at least, we will deal with the new issues and see bunch of specialist/surgeons this week, hopefully find someone with better outlook than we heard all week. shit was depressing. lol
 
thought maybe peterson out total be sneaky good seeing how id expect his k's down cause nats make contact, last time he went 6.2 innings ve nats and only fanned 2. they came with strong number, nats were only start he pitched into 7th, nats kinda cold at moment. mets kinda hot. maybe it just be better to play mets in some fashion. nats home from long bad road trip, no day off. i'd be ok going ff -.5 or be greedy with full game -1.5, unless gonna parlay with stros?
 
i might be repeating myself. ate bunch of zans to calm stress today then ate a week gummy and mfer has me high, and eating everything! eyes getting little heavy but wanna cap! pissed only 3 games! lol
 
hunter brown ov 5.5 k's at +125 seems well worth a shot! i should prob look closer cause man that price is screaming at me, might be missing something! lol
 
i gotta be high. i thought mets were like -140!! they only -108?!!?!? that feels way way low, nats slumping and off lomg road trip, discrepancy in mets vs lhp compared to nats low ops vs them. yea that price seems crazy low, i woulda played -140! lol. i damn sure playing under -110!!!
 
peelpub94 said:
Nationals have an 81 wRC+ vs lefties this season.
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Haha even when I look up sabremetrics I'm not positive whether this is good or bad. Couple different definitions say that 100 is average so this is below average?
 
KJ said:
Haha even when I look up sabremetrics I'm not positive whether this is good or bad. Couple different definitions say that 100 is average so this is below average?
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Exactly. They struggle big time vs lefties on the season but doing slightly better over the past 2 weeks. So now that I just said that, Petersen will be shelled tonight.
 
peelpub94 said:
Exactly. They struggle big time vs lefties on the season but doing slightly better over the past 2 weeks. So now that I just said that, Petersen will be shelled tonight.
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the odd thing is they make lot of contact which why i'm really tempted to play peterson ov 17.5 outs, i hate needing him to go 6 but he went 6.2 vs nats last time for same reason they tend to get themselves out earlier in counts so he able to pitch longer than his typical games where he walking 2-3-4 and/or fanning a big number going deep into counts. nats and fish are def 2 my fav teams to play lefty props, fade their total runs, or just fade them vs lefties! luckily i didn't have lot of time sunday or i prob woulda been really scratching my head the way fish hit ranger suarez, lol. in typical fish fashion they still managed to lose but i'm sure i would have took few hits on that one.
 
i dunno what the avg number of pitches nats see but i'd guess they pretty low in that area.,
 
KJ said:
Haha even when I look up sabremetrics I'm not positive whether this is good or bad. Couple different definitions say that 100 is average so this is below average?
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yep higher over 100 better it is.
 
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2daBank said:
the odd thing is they make lot of contact which why i'm really tempted to play peterson ov 17.5 outs, i hate needing him to go 6 but he went 6.2 vs nats last time for same reason they tend to get themselves out earlier in counts so he able to pitch longer than his typical games where he walking 2-3-4 and/or fanning a big number going deep into counts. nats and fish are def 2 my fav teams to play lefty props, fade their total runs, or just fade them vs lefties! luckily i didn't have lot of time sunday or i prob woulda been really scratching my head the way fish hit ranger suarez, lol. in typical fish fashion they still managed to lose but i'm sure i would have took few hits on that one.
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Mets let him get into the 100s in his pitch count too.
 
peelpub94 said:
Mets let him get into the 100s in his pitch count too.
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yea i'm super tempted to play his outs. but at same time mets are so damn cheap for what i feel a really good spot, i woulda made them -140ish so might just be better off playing them? im always torn on more plays or less in one game, hate when i ended up taking away from good bet but love when i cash several! lol
 
those pussies don't let ya do pitcher outs in sgp, don't let me do hits, runs, rbis ether, can do total bases or rbi but not that, kinda a tell i think on bets they know we have a bigger edge!
 
peelpub94 said:
That said, I still get my ass kicked on K props.
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they have gotten way sharper w k prop lines than they were couple seasons back when i started, they let ya put k's in sgp, just not out totals) can catch them slipping some but i play way less and while im still ok w them not hitting the clip i used to. i like out props more now but they have started tightening them also to where im playing less, just hope for some odd reason they keep doing that shit in playoffs where they lower the top dogs number (all starters really) i'll never get that but hope it keeps up, lol. i know it cause managers propensity to yank starter sooner in playoffs but the guys in playoffs you can trust are big time ain't getting yanked early!

yesterday i freaking knew Ryan would prob fan 10+ against seattle free swinging asses but those fuckers came w 7.5 and i let it scare me off, year ago woulda been 6.5 and id have pounded that shit!! lol
 
i don't get this number, i was gonna make a smaller bet on brown ov 5.5 k's at +125 i saw last night. got across river and he was ov 4.5 -130, hit the shit out of that! by time i left illinios it was up to -160 which im pretty sure id still play. i didnt really dig into his day/night splits but he been punching out a nice clip and pitching well for over a month now, you damn right i kinda pounded ov 4.5 -130!

also played stros and mets as already discussed.

couldn't help but a play on peterson ov 17.5 outs -110 also. see what happens but long as he around the zone nats will help keep his pitch count lower.

that pretty much it when it a 3 game card! lol
 
jfc does brown throw anything but fastballs? he had last 2 hitters 0-2 and kept throwing heat that kept getting fouled off, it was located well but he ended up throwing bunch of pitches and never showed them anything w spin and they eventually hit into outs. there no way he posting those k numbers without something spinning for a put away pitch!!!! i guess maybe he saving for later at bats but sure coulda used 1 k at least, shoulda had 2!!
 
wow, i'll take that as a good break, brown strikes out the side in 6th to cash his k's. he had to throw 85% fastballs that outing, i know he likes the heat and im cool w that but gotta have something else to put guys away, it worked today tho and somehow cashed his k's and got a great 6 innings! now stros should tack a few on!!
 
man i was gonna add Lindor h,r,rbi for shits and giggles but game started before i made it across river, lol.
 
these umps today have very bad vision. mfers look like me out there w no contacts or glasses, just randomly calling ball or strike.
 
the ump in stros game had no idea. calling shit 3-4 inches high strikes and everything at bottom zone balls. now this idiot starts off calling strikes 3 inches off outside corner, i swear 18 year old with ipads mlb, tired of the guy calling balls and strikes the only mfer on planet that doesn't actually see if it a ball or strike!
 
i swear anytime i bet mets they look like the losers i think they are.,but let me ignore them and they win all damn month!!
 
gore begging to stay in, he like all i'm throwing fastballs and not one these losers has cheated and caught up to 1!! please let me strike another out! lol
 
did us a huge favor taking gore out, maybe muts can figure out how to win another close one.
 
peterson breezes thru 6 as predicted! 3 down 1 play to go, either way 3 out of 4 ain't bad but i really wanna finish it off hitting muts!!
 
funny. bader hit the snot out ball 1st 2 at bats w guys on and made outs. last 2 at bats he avg bout a 60mph ev and they both fall for hits. freaking baseball, lol
 
Inspekdah said:
Ugh I missed an outs play. F me!
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sorry buddy, it was damn near perfect too and went pretty much exactly like i thought. nats don't let guys run pitch counts up so they like the ideal team for peterson cause he generally wants to throw 6-7-8 pitches to each batter to punch them out, nats don't strike out but they also don't hit lefties for shit! odd combo but perfect for our purposes here.
 
if ya bet nats i'd be cussing shit out this manager. this game mostly on him, the error didn't help but he making the wrong moves!
 
2daBank said:
sorry buddy, it was damn near perfect too and went pretty much exactly like i thought. nats don't let guys run pitch counts up so they like the ideal team for peterson cause he generally wants to throw 6-7-8 pitches to each batter to punch them out, nats don't strike out but they also don't hit lefties for shit! odd combo but perfect for our purposes here.
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You were spot on with this read. Nice call man.
 
peelpub94 said:
You were spot on with this read. Nice call man.
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thanks buddy. i hope mets not fucking this game up taking him out, cause a damn infield hit? he retired 11 straight and 85 pitches we pull the plug w 2 guys coming up who havnt did shit? i don't love it. he coulda got thru 7 easy think. can't stand when manager yanks guy after a bloop or infield single, seriously that changed your mind?
 
2daBank said:
thanks buddy. i hope mets not fucking this game up taking him out, cause a damn infield hit? he retired 11 straight and 85 pitches we pull the plug w 2 guys coming up who havnt did shit? i don't love it. he coulda got thru 7 easy think. can't stand when manager yanks guy after a bloop or infield single, seriously that changed your mind?
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They will
 
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