Monday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

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1st thought gotta continue backing houston in some way, shape, or form this series, I dunno if they giving rangers too much respect or just not giving Stros enough but they have shown this series having that champion pedigree matters! I went with the Stros tt over today, just barely got that bitch, probably woulda been better to play the ml.

No disrespect to perez but this a really cheap price on javier!! Of course maybe not the javier of his last 2 starts, before making a play gotta take some time and try to figure out why he has looked so bad his last few?? All I know is a healthy javier combined with the better pen should equal Stros being favs here.
 
Dunno much bout guardians pitcher Gavin Williams, he had a sweet stat line last time out vs kc but playing atl is a tad more challenging (understatement of year! Lol). I do think this be a good spot for Braves bats to cool off a bit so if I find things I like a out him I could see myself getting involved with Cleveland.
 
Can’t wait to see where they put Snell k prop at? This dude can be one the baddest mofo’s in the game or he can be a total fade who can’t hit the board side of a barn!

Right now he on fire and has looked like the best pitcher in baseball the entire month of June! 5 June starts, 31 innings, 3 runs, 53 k’s:8 walks!! Not sure you can find many pitchers who have had a month better than that?!??? No clue how long it will last? In all seriousness he could turn back into a bum who can’t get the ball over the plate to save his life at any second! Until that time comes I think ya just keep fingers crossed and ride the wave! I say his k prop will most likely be set at 8.5, anything less is point town for me, 8.5 and I’m still playing over for a normal bet.
 
As much as I’m licking my chops waiting for Snell k number it’s also a game you have to think bout laa if the get enough plus money. I’ve already reeled off what Snell has done his last 5 with a sub 1 era and striking out everyone but pads being what they are they somehow have managed to only go 3-2 in those 5 starts!! (Another reason i still value starters that go deep into games, no matter how dominant you are if you only pitching 6 innings you leaving a lot or time for your team to lose!!)..
 
askias said:
Feels like anytime you can get the braves under -150 you kinda have to.
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Mfers only lost 4 games since the beginning of June and are averaging 7 runs a game over that stretch! Shit is redic. I wanna say Cleveland a good place to slow their offense down a bit but Fuxk the lineup stacked w dudes who can hit a bomb at any moment. You really gotta avoid walks, challenge them and live with it when they put one 10 rows deep, better to give up a few solo shots than try to be cute and put guys on before the blast. Guardians offense won’t be able to keep up if those home runs are 2-3 run jobs,
 
Braxton Garrett is a awful matchup for cards imo, cards reputation for hitting lhp isn’t really accurate this year, they basically middle the pack ops vs lhp and that counting the 1st month when they were one the better lhp hitting teams. Yes the big bats outside Gorman are right handed but several the guys who make this offense go are lefties.

I don’t even like cards righties all that much against garrett. You can pretty much toss out the few times he faced stl cause his pitch mix is vastly different now and it the kind of mix that will give cards fits! His sinker the only of his 3 fastballs he throws more than 20% the time, he throws as many sliders as any other pitch which if you been paying attention you know that a problem! If you throw out a couple games vs Braves and snakes this dude been nails all season, braves destroy lhp and his one bad start against the snakes game in the desert where many guys struggle. His overall swinging strike of 12.8% is good but if you run thru game by game this dude is posting elite swing and miss numbers, 8 of his last 10 starts he been 14% or higher.

The problem here trying to figure out the best way to play this isn’t the pitcher, im pretty confident Garrett is gonna punk cards hitters tonight. Unfortunately the books ain’t doing us many favors, I would have loved to bet cards Ff un2.5 and these pricks hung a 1.5! They hung a 16.5 out total which is incredibly strong for Garrett cause the team known for overworking some of their young arms tends to keep his pitch count very low! I have no doubt he could pitch 6 strong innings but playing over 16.5 outs when he has only been allowed to pitch that deep a handful of times all year is risky! They are offering plus money on over 5.5 k’s tho, a number he has hit in 10 of 15 starts (10 of 13 if you take away the Braves games where he got hammered!). Cardinals not a team I play a lot of k props against but they do have a 25% k rate vs lhp this year and this exactly the kind of guy who can punch them out! Would have loved to get the cards Ff u2.5 but they were sharp hanging that 1.5. I think the out total is too dangerous since fish have only let Garrett throw 90 pitches 1x all year! Plus money on ov 5.5 k’s seems like the only play with some value as I fully expect he will fan 4 the 1st time thru the lineup and should have 7+ thru 5 innings.

If we didn’t want to play the pitcher props at all in this game I also think fish Ff -.5 ev money a solid play or just fish -120 for game is rather cheap. Remember before getting swept by the Braves the Fish were playing some the best baseball in the nl the past month, they are a much better team than the cards!! Nothing about Mikolas form tells me he gonna be able to go toe to toe with Garrett. -120 is nuts, this is based off the names on the front the uniforms and nothing else. If the records were reversed cards would be -180!!! That a whole bunch of value imo,
 
2daBank said:
1st thought gotta continue backing houston in some way, shape, or form this series, I dunno if they giving rangers too much respect or just not giving Stros enough but they have shown this series having that champion pedigree matters! I went with the Stros tt over today, just barely got that bitch, probably woulda been better to play the ml.

No disrespect to perez but this a really cheap price on javier!! Of course maybe not the javier of his last 2 starts, before making a play gotta take some time and try to figure out why he has looked so bad his last few?? All I know is a healthy javier combined with the better pen should equal Stros being favs here.
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I have a real problem with Javier today since he was scratched this weekend yet there are no updates that I can find on Twitter. This tweet sums up my thinking and I'm in no rush to fade the Astros by any means.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1675742035725393920
 
KJ said:
I have a real problem with Javier today since he was scratched this weekend yet there are no updates that I can find on Twitter. This tweet sums up my thinking and I'm in no rush to fade the Astros by any means.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1675742035725393920
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I didn’t know he was pushed back, probably not a good sign. As I was saying I def had to look more at him today cause I watched some of his last start and something was def wrong. There no way I’m fading him at this price (you know me, I really don’t play k unders, lol) but I might just take a wait and see on this one, not end of the world, wouldn’t be 1st time this series I went back across the river after Stros got down and put a live bet on them! The pen edge and championship pedigree real in this series!
 
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2daBank said:
I didn’t know he was pushed back, probably not a good sign. As I was saying I def had to look more at him today cause I watched some of his last start and something was def wrong. There no way I’m fading him at this price (you know me, I really don’t play k unders, lol) but I might just take a wait and see on this one, not end of the world, wouldn’t be 1st time this series I went back across the river after Stros got down and put a live bet on them! The pen edge and championship pedigree real in this series!
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After I posted it I remembered it was Valdez who got pushed but there's been so much chatter about Javier and his issues they kinda got blurred together. This could be a real situation going forward with that stud staff. You know how it goes...starters can't got deep like the norm so the pen starts getting used more. They aren't accustomed to being the chasers at the all star break and the other chasers in the division have a better all around staff.

Should be a crazy couple month in the AL West
 
I will say before getting too excited to fade Javier, Stros can not afford to lose him! This was a big series but not so big there any way I think they sending him out there if they don’t think he right. Right?? It’s amazing they are where they are with all the pitching they have lost (position players missing time also!), I gotta believe the think he ok if they sending him out!!
 
2daBank said:
I will say before getting too excited to fade Javier, Stros can not afford to lose him! This was a big series but not so big there any way I think they sending him out there if they don’t think he right. Right?? It’s amazing they are where they are with all the pitching they have lost (position players missing time also!), I gotta believe the think he ok if they sending him out!!
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If he can't locate his slider for whatever reason, injury or mental or just form

He's just a guy with a fastball
 
KJ said:
If he can't locate his slider for whatever reason, injury or mental or just form

He's just a guy with a fastball
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I agree with that im just not sure I could bet expecting that to continue. His track record says it won’t, obviously if somehjing bothering him that throwing shit off it not a easy fix, more likely he tries to adjust and hurts something else. This start will tell us a lot, I’m ok not betting it and maybe jumping in live, there just no way I want to fade him and def not Stros.
 
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2daBank said:
I agree with that im just not sure I could bet expecting that to continue. His track record says it won’t, obviously if somehjing bothering him that throwing shit off it not a easy fix, more likely he tries to adjust and hurts something else. This start will tell us a lot, I’m ok not betting it and maybe jumping in live, there just no way I want to fade him and def not Stros.
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Yeah fading him didn't even enter my mind. Will be the same when Valdez pitches again
 
Damn, it does blow it one the day games, that makes it harder to pass! Lol. I can sit around the casino and bet it live tho. Beats the shit out of being at home without fucking power
 
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Also as a side note, how great will this trade deadline be? We have a season where the standings are somewhat flipped from the norm outside of the Braves. Who is willing to shove their stacks and who will be patient and just let the process do its thing?

Strange season when most of the elites are going to be chasing come Aug/Sept
 
2daBank said:
Damn, it does blow it one the day games, that makes it harder to pass! Lol. I can sit around the casino and bet it live tho. Beats the shit out of being at home without fucking power
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This is that fucked up day that comes between the weekend and a holiday. Still getting work emails but not really convinced anyone is actually working. Also a prime week for people to take the week off so it's only 4 days vacation but is 9 days off if you like.

Need to go to MGM to collect on a promo in person, next to Cards stadium so a 25 minute drive but light traffic, might be the day to do it. Figured I'd wait til there was shit going on during the day to make that hike.
 
Actually only two day games today. WTF?

Only angle I can get on board with is playing Cubs with Brew being a heavy public dog but even that can change in a couple hours.

And it's raining at Wimbledon so only a couple matches going on there.

I really do appreciate MLK day on days like this
 
KJ said:
Also as a side note, how great will this trade deadline be? We have a season where the standings are somewhat flipped from the norm outside of the Braves. Who is willing to shove their stacks and who will be patient and just let the process do its thing?

Strange season when most of the elites are going to be chasing come Aug/Sept
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Some ppl think there not be much activity cause there just not many teams willing to admit to themselves or their fan base they out of it so gonna be limited amount of players with a bunch of teams coveting the same thing. I’ve heard the thought this season might be won by the team who’s farm system can handle the innings.

What I think needs to start happening since they decided to allow half the league into the playoffs we are never gonna see many teams outside the a’s and Rockies of the world looking to sell, the solution to this seems obvious, teams trying to contend need to pair up w teams in similar spots and do trades that could impact both teams dealing from wherever you may have a surplus that lines up w another teams need, some gm’s are too chicken shit for that but think the ones w guts who can find a dance partner that makes both teams better be the ones having success at deadline going forward! The only problem there is per the SI article very few if anyone can afford to give up desirable starters with so many injuries! That would lead back to a teams farm system, not for trading purposes but if a offensively challenged team like Cleveland thinks they can patch some innings together with their youngsters and be willing to move a big league starter you would think they could get a huge boost to their offense As they could demand quite the premium on position players they would recieve for a proven starter!

I don’t think this “everyone has a chance” parody has to be a killer fof the trade deadline. It just gonna have to look different than the old way of he rich cherry picking from the poor. It gonna take a few gm’s with balls to change the way business is done, they will drag the rest along with them kickinv and screaming as they tend to do in baseball whenever change comes knocking!! I think it be way more entertaining when 2 teams with championship aspirations come together w a deal that helps them both!!
 
KJ said:
This is that fucked up day that comes between the weekend and a holiday. Still getting work emails but not really convinced anyone is actually working. Also a prime week for people to take the week off so it's only 4 days vacation but is 9 days off if you like.

Need to go to MGM to collect on a promo in person, next to Cards stadium so a 25 minute drive but light traffic, might be the day to do it. Figured I'd wait til there was shit going on during the day to make that hike.
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Theresa was supposed to work today but no internet kinda hampers her ability to work from home. Im getting real sick of the text alerts saying they working on the problem, I’m like “really, cause I’m looking out my back porch and I don’t see anything but a tree down on top of power lines, the same thing I’ve seen for last 4 freaking days!! I’ll know when you lousy Lying Mfers are actually working on it!”. It was almost refreshing when the last alert I got last night was Ameron saying “we do not expect to restore your power tonight”, shit be hilarious if it wasn’t me it was happening too!’ After 4 days of “we are working on the problem to restore service quick as possible” they finally admit they havnt and not close to doing shit!!
 
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2daBank said:
Some ppl think there not be much activity cause there just not many teams willing to admit to themselves or their fan base they out of it so gonna be limited amount of players with a bunch of teams coveting the same thing. I’ve heard the thought this season might be won by the team who’s farm system can handle the innings.

What I think needs to start happening since they decided to allow half the league into the playoffs we are never gonna see many teams outside the a’s and Rockies of the world looking to sell, the solution to this seems obvious, teams trying to contend need to pair up w teams in similar spots and do trades that could impact both teams dealing from wherever you may have a surplus that lines up w another teams need, some gm’s are too chicken shit for that but think the ones w guts who can find a dance partner that makes both teams better be the ones having success at deadline going forward! The only problem there is per the SI article very few if anyone can afford to give up desirable starters with so many injuries! That would lead back to a teams farm system, not for trading purposes but if a offensively challenged team like Cleveland thinks they can patch some innings together with their youngsters and be willing to move a big league starter you would think they could get a huge boost to their offense As they could demand quite the premium on position players they would recieve for a proven starter!

I don’t think this “everyone has a chance” parody has to be a killer fof the trade deadline. It just gonna have to look different than the old way of he rich cherry picking from the poor. It gonna take a few gm’s with balls to change the way business is done, they will drag the rest along with them kickinv and screaming as they tend to do in baseball whenever change comes knocking!! I think it be way more entertaining when 2 teams with championship aspirations come together w a deal that helps them both!!
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This season is every sport's worst nightmare

Both Central divisions are shit and full of small market teams. Outside the Cubs and Cards, who in either of those two divisions would ever be considered a large market (yes, the White Sox are small market still). Those teams HAVE to start fast to develop a market and this year it's all come together to where they all suck.

NL East is sewn up so it's wild card at best for Philly and Mutts

AL East is intriguing but small market Tampa doesn't need a move and obv NYY w/o Judge are Detroit.

Both West divisions are upside down

I hope the Snakes don't do something stupid and dismantle a farm that can yield a great future for years but I'm afraid the opportunity to knock LAD and SD off the pedestal will be too enticing this season. I think it will be the most interesting deadline in years even if teams do nothing. There are a ton of story lines.
 
2daBank said:
Theresa was supposed to work today but no internet kinda hampers her ability to work from home. Im getting real sick of the text alerts saying they working on the problem, I’m like “really, cause I’m looking out my back porch and I don’t see anything but a tree down on top of power lines, the same thing I’ve seen for last 4 freaking days!! I’ll know when you lousy Lying Mfers are actually working on it!”. It was almost refreshing when the last alert I got last night was Ameron saying “we do not expect to restore your power tonight”, shit be hilarious if it wasn’t me it was happening too!’ After 4 days of “we are working on the problem to restore service quick as possible” they finally admit they havnt and not close to doing shit!!
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Tell them you'll take a chainsaw to the tree and everything in its way including the lines
 
KJ said:
This season is every sport's worst nightmare

Both Central divisions are shit and full of small market teams. Outside the Cubs and Cards, who in either of those two divisions would ever be considered a large market (yes, the White Sox are small market still). Those teams HAVE to start fast to develop a market and this year it's all come together to where they all suck.

NL East is sewn up so it's wild card at best for Philly and Mutts

AL East is intriguing but small market Tampa doesn't need a move and obv NYY w/o Judge are Detroit.

Both West divisions are upside down

I hope the Snakes don't do something stupid and dismantle a farm that can yield a great future for years but I'm afraid the opportunity to knock LAD and SD off the pedestal will be too enticing this season. I think it will be the most interesting deadline in years even if teams do nothing. There are a ton of story lines.
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I feel like snakes biggest need is just pen help, they outta be able to find some solid guys in that role without giving too much away! Obviously long term (and for playoffs) they need one more stud pitcher to pair with Gallen and Kelly, I dont really think that guy out there, certainly not to the caliber I’d want him to be and certainly not under contract, that something ya gonna have to figure out in the offseason. If ya could get a rental who a upgrade over davies for cheap I’d do that, I’d for sure look at solid pen arms with at least one more year of control, that would be the extent of it if I was them: the future way too bright, im not saying punt but I agree I would be frugal unless some crazy good opportunity to get a stud pitcher with control came out of nowhere, short of that which never happens they be wise to do just enough to keep the excitement going.
 
2daBank said:
I feel like snakes biggest need is just pen help, they outta be able to find some solid guys in that role without giving too much away! Obviously long term (and for playoffs) they need one more stud pitcher to pair with Gallen and Kelly, I dont really think that guy out there, certainly not to the caliber I’d want him to be and certainly not under contract, that something ya gonna have to figure out in the offseason. If ya could get a rental who a upgrade over davies for cheap I’d do that, I’d for sure look at solid pen arms with at least one more year of control, that would be the extent of it if I was them: the future way too bright, im not saying punt but I agree I would be frugal unless some crazy good opportunity to get a stud pitcher with control came out of nowhere, short of that which never happens they be wise to do just enough to keep the excitement going.
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Ha rumor is trying to get Scherzer on the cheap to return here

Tommy Henry is becoming a young stud too, have zero problems with him starting in the postseason if they get there
 
2daBank said:
I feel like snakes biggest need is just pen help, they outta be able to find some solid guys in that role without giving too much away! Obviously long term (and for playoffs) they need one more stud pitcher to pair with Gallen and Kelly, I dont really think that guy out there, certainly not to the caliber I’d want him to be and certainly not under contract, that something ya gonna have to figure out in the offseason. If ya could get a rental who a upgrade over davies for cheap I’d do that, I’d for sure look at solid pen arms with at least one more year of control, that would be the extent of it if I was them: the future way too bright, im not saying punt but I agree I would be frugal unless some crazy good opportunity to get a stud pitcher with control came out of nowhere, short of that which never happens they be wise to do just enough to keep the excitement going.
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Who would you take:

Wheeler, Nola, Suarez

or

Gallen, Kelly Henry
 
KJ said:
This is why I have a system for my meds, to know if yesterday might damn well have been this morning
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Somebody should invent an app where you can easily check off having taken whatever pill on a given day
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Who would you take:

Wheeler, Nola, Suarez

or

Gallen, Kelly Henry
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This was a lot harder than I thought it be, @KJ gonna be surprised but think I’d take Gallen, Kelly, whoever else. For my money Gallen is right there with strider as best in the NL, if he would clean up those day road starts he would be my top nl choice to start a playoff game. The fact he untouchable at home in a park a lot of pitchers struggle a huge edge.

After a year plus of @KJ In my head I’ve finally soured on Nola, to the point given the way Ranger performed in playoffs last year and seems to be rounding back into that form
I would call it Wheeler, Suarez, nola. Where Philly has the obvious edge is they go 4 deep with Walker! So I said the snakes trio but it really just a duo and Philly has a 4th better than snakes 3rd.
 
Feel like Texas -1.5 is the move with the way Javier is having issues. This is not the kind of line up you can navigate when you don't have your stuff working for you.
 
2daBank said:
This was a lot harder than I thought it be, @KJ gonna be surprised but think I’d take Gallen, Kelly, whoever else. For my money Gallen is right there with strider as best in the NL, if he would clean up those day road starts he would be my top nl choice to start a playoff game. The fact he untouchable at home in a park a lot of pitchers struggle a huge edge.

After a year plus of @KJ In my head I’ve finally soured on Nola, to the point given the way Ranger performed in playoffs last year and seems to be rounding back into that form
I would call it Wheeler, Suarez, nola. Where Philly has the obvious edge is they go 4 deep with Walker! So I said the snakes trio but it really just a duo and Philly has a 4th better than snakes 3rd.
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Kelly will likely be our 3rd by end of season

Henry is that good. Trading for a starter, not pen relief, I think will be the priority at deadline
 
KJ said:
Kelly will likely be our 3rd by end of season

Henry is that good. Trading for a starter, not pen relief, I think will be the priority at deadline
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The pen is just easier/cheaper to fix. Henry that good? I really havnt seen him much. Scouting reports don’t seem very high on the fastball and it doesn’t appear to be anything special, doesn’t mean he can’t be really good, lot of lefties with just ok fastballs have nice careers, his secondary stuff and deception must be next level!
 
2daBank said:
The pen is just easier/cheaper to fix. Henry that good? I really havnt seen him much. Scouting reports don’t seem very high on the fastball and it doesn’t appear to be anything special, doesn’t mean he can’t be really good, lot of lefties with just ok fastballs have nice careers, his secondary stuff and deception must be next level!
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Yeah it's not his fastball lol

Ohtani showed out on his fastball a couple nights ago. Other than that he's just a pitcher that hits his spots with good pitches, kinda Glavine like from what I've seen
 
KJ said:
Will the buy your generator back?
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Lmao, I doubt it. I was in lowes and asking the person if this one had enough watts to do what I needed and such, after decided on this one I said “well if it not enough I’ll bring back and get a bigger one”, it said 30 day return policy right on it, but the Mfer says once the box is opened I can’t return!’ They had to open the box to get It in my car so I’m not real sure bout that!! Im sure ppl try to use them as a rental company all the time wjen this happens. I’ll prob just keep it, they come In handy for other things too, no sense arguing with them bout it. I’ll get use out of it and it I ever need the money they usually have good resale value.
 
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