Monday 4/29 MLB Discussion

[Play2win]

Cain's been struggling (6 hr's allowed L3 starts), Arz just faced him... for starters

Sf cold on road and Arz hot at home lately.

Arz crushing RHP, 12-5 L17 and 8-2 L10 home vs RHP
Arz 18-7 L25 Kennedy home starts, Arz 8-0 L8 Kennedy starts vs SF

 

[GWarner27]

surprised STL isn't getting a little more love in here.....

Like em just don't think this sport is profitable above -120

 

[Play2win]

some other scattered random crap:

Min: 5-12 L17 gm 1's
Det: 12-4 L16 gm 1's

Mets: 10-3 L13 vs Mia
Mia: 7-21 L28 after a win

Cle: 7-24 after scoring 5 or more runs in previous game, 2-7 L9 @ KC and 2-10 L12 Ubaldo/Road starts

SD: 4-10 L14 gm 1's, 1-5 L6 @ Chi
Cubs: 8-3 L11 home vs LHP

A's: 14-4 L18 after scoring 5 or more runs in previous game, 48-23 L71 home games, 6-2 L8 Straily starts
Laa: 1-6 L7 vs A's

Pit: 4-12 L16 Mon, 5-22 L27 gm 1's, 7-44 L51 @ Mil
Mil: 15-7 L22 gm 1's, 35-17 L52 Gallardo home starts

Balt: 22-4 L26 after a loss, 22-7 L29 after allowing 5 or more runs in previous game, 7-3 L10 Britton/Road starts, 8-0 L8 vs Sea, 5-0 L5 @ Sea
Sea: 3-7 L10 vs LHP, 23-49 L72 home vs LHP, 1-8 L9 after a win

Reds: 24-52 L76 @ StL
StL: 14-6 L20 Mon, 9-2 L11 Wainwright home starts

Col: 6-21 L27 Road vs LHP
LaD: 12-4 L16 Lilly starts, 6-1 L7 Lilly starts vs Col

 

[SportsNut]

The crappiest card in awhile imo --

Before anyone gets crazy w anything involving Detroit and Minnesota, know one thing. Pelfrey has this odd history of being fairly solid on 5 days rest and today is his 1st start on 5 days this season. He has been poor, no doubt ...just a fyi that one can do their due diligence on .....

The Astros stink but a pitch to contact pitcher is always their best bet of success. Yanks trailed alm 4 games vs Jays and basically stole the last 2 games. Now the difference between boston and yanks is boston's lineup is hitting and deep --yank are shorthanded as hell nd gettng timely hitting. Actually think here there is some value in terrible Houston.

Upton claims the braves were tired this weekend from their long road trip. Today they wont fell any better if true so no interest and they have won all of Teheran starts, so not much aiding Atlanta imo.

Harvey was bailed out last strt and Wright sits. Mets lookes awful v Fernndez at home but curious how he adjusts the 2nd time around more then anything...

Sd caught fire and question is -- has richard regained his strength after the flu?

Brewers and cubs both back from long trips.

 

[SportsNut]

Went with --

Astros F5, ml and +1.5 all for 2 u each
F5 Twins 1u
Nationals ml 3u
Miami ml 3u
Over Miami 5u
Padres ml 4u, F5 2u.
over @ chicago 4u , parlay 1u
Under @kc 2u
Over 8 Arizona 5u
Giants ml 6u, reverse 1u

That's all not super confident in anything. GL

 

[The_HAMMER]

Went with --

Astros F5, ml and +1.5 all for 2 u each
F5 Twins 1u
Nationals ml 3u
Miami ml 3u
Over Miami 5u
Padres ml 4u, F5 2u.
over @ chicago 4u
Under @kc 2u
Over 8 Arizona 5u
Giants ml 6u, reverse 1u

That's all not super confident in anything. GL

Nut - gimme somethin' else on Miami brother...terrible Bats...I expect Harvey to be fairly sharp after last shaky start...

 

[SportsNut]

I really don't have much to go on. Mets aren't playibg well and minus Wright here vs a SP capable of matching or exceeding Harvey. Love Harvey and really can't offer much negative on him. Stanton probably heating up w the 3hrs. I kinda made this play mentally last week, had huge mets and over play when they git the walkoff grand slam...

 

[SportsNut]

Guess that's why I like the over - if I'm wrong and Fernandez doesn't make adjustments which I possible then mets will score 4-5 run prob ly

 

[The_HAMMER]

Hear ya...seems like everyone and their mother is on'm...harvey is a pimp but I guess he's gotta lose sometime...good luck meng!

 

[SportsNut]

Hear ya...seems like everyone and their mother is on'm...harvey is a pimp but I guess he's gotta lose sometime...good luck meng!

Did not realize that. Try my hardest not to read anything before I decide my plays and just go with what I feel. So outside opinion doesn't usually influence me. I know people for whatever reason seem to treat + signs as freedom to gamble on low probability plays. Like I said I was fading Harvey basically after last week but interesting to find out people like a team who has won 24% of their games because they are getting forty cents extra...I don't get the obsession w price and value to be honest. Honestly, can't believe GW doesn't feel like one can be successful playing games above -120. That' s the thing with gambling there is no formula for success, sometimes you have to bet favorites ...the ability to adjust quickly to what is happening is so key. I don't have any limits on what plays I make or guidelines but I rarely play anything above -140 or even around at...its about trying to get your money in situations where you have an edge -- like counting cards in blackjack...you push and press when you identify an edge....betting on sports is the same imo...

Then again, in defense of GW I never understood the way people traded stocks or bonds( professionally) Which is what got me going hard into sports gambling anyway.

Good Luck too...sorry for the ramble

 

[nbafan88]

The Yankees still suck vs pitchers they've never seen before. Done with sides.

 

[SportsNut]

Really they were down 3-0 before they took a swing but yeah still a valid point

 

[nbafan88]

The Astros hits are ridiculously hard. They must be pumped to be in NYC

 

[nbafan88]

Really they were down 3-0 before they took a swing but yeah still a valid point

Past couple years they haven't been good vs pitchers they see for the first time.

 

[nbafan88]

Yanks over cashes

 

[SportsNut]

Who do you think discovered that trend...lol...its much more then a few years. My point was different game when you get to throw your 1st pitch up 3-0. -- something I would look at it when reviewing a pitchers start.Definite letdown spot for yanks, sweep divisional rival jays in 4 game series for 1st time since 95..but they won didn't exactly beat the jays and we get the extreme result

 

[SportsNut]

P.S.--- starting to feel old. When I think about how long I have been posting and worse gambling. Fuck time flies

 

[bet10heinekens]

Anyone think the O's series price -120 is super cheap

they got their top 2 pitchers Chen and Hammel vs the back end of the M's rotation, no King Felix and Iwakuma

 

[SportsNut]

Only negative would be Saunders returns now for seattle. Only down 1 starter now. Would it be easier at that price to play indivual games?

 

[bet10heinekens]

Only negative would be Saunders returns now for seattle. Only down 1 starter now. Would it be easier at that price to play indivual games?

Yeah, I see he has one good game a Safeco and his teams record is 7-0 vs the O's

I still think he's a gas can

 

[SportsNut]

Sorry, meant Michael Saunders returning from the DL and the missing starter was Franklin Gutierrez. At one point those two were out, Morse had the broken pinky and Ackley was ice cold + Montero as well. Lineup is slowly improving for seattle. Not a Joe Saunders fan but he likes pitching at Safeco ( stastically speaking). Balt crushing LH and Seattle near the bottom vs LH.

One issue could be Britton last start 4/18, just 13 inn pitched and long is 6 inn. Sure he has been getting his side work in though.

Just throwing shit out there - have no plays or bias. GL

 

[guinness]

Nut...you are young and full of off the cuff thinking, and I for one..doubtfully one...appreciate your input...don't post much but love the small ball and appreciate your input

 

[SportsNut]

Thanks guinness. Creeping up on 39 and 20 years of gambling like this ..that's what makes me feel old. Think I started posting in 2002 at blankets ...seems like a million years ago. Really don't feel my age though ....when you thinl about it kind of lke a wow moment..

On a gambling note played SF TT over for 3u.

 

[SportsNut]

Colorado playing w Tulo already struggling vs LHP

Just 1-4 away

L2-4 and2-3 to corbin and miley
W2-1 vs richard
L0-10 vs zito and 2-4 baumgarner

 

[SportsNut]

Have so many regrets for plays I passed on today, so wondering what's really worth playibg at this point?

With that in mind -- angels ml 2u --though w struggling parker tmrw and hnson back from bereavement list here not a great spot

Dodgers -1.5 +140 3u-- the whoke LHP thing and maybe Rocks step up minus Tulo but decided to gamble anyway

Over 7-130 Baltimore 2u ---maybe a shit spot w saunders getting ripped lately but couldn't pass it up

 

[SportsNut]

my regrets fww -- the under @ Detroit, over @ Milwaukee, away teams ml, and under@ st.louis...sucks when tht happens

 

[SportsNut]

Awful for anyone to lose money on that miami game. I'll certainly take it after sd couldn't win or get the over despite numerous chances late.

 

[SportsNut]

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[TD="class: yspscores"]19[/TD]
[TD="class: yspscores"]13[/TD]
[TD="class: yspscores"]4[/TD]
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[TD="class: yspscores"]30[/TD]
[TD="class: yspscores"]1.71[/TD]
[TD="class: yspscores"]1.13[/TD]
[TD="class: yspscores"].219


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[/TR]
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Joe Saunders @ Safeco before today

Thats 7-0 in 11 starts