Monday(11-6-06) NBA Plays and Analysis

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Alright, 2-1 yesterday but down (0.02) units with the bigger play on Orlando.

Sitting at 38-17-4 with 20.28 units to the good side

Lets go ahead and dive into Monday's card...

New York Vs San Antonio

Alright, I first want to go through the Spurs road history from last season a bit. There is always talk about the Spurs struggling on B2B's so I went game by game through last season and found this..

-First, the Spurs(unless I missed something) only play one set of 'four in five nights'. Thats amazing. I looked 3 times so I may have missed something but do not think that I did. They finished off that set against the Clippers at home. They lost 92-100 laying 8 points.

-Second, back to backs where the second leg was on the road. Before we go into the numbers, this is as far as I went with this. You could also see how they performed the day before in relation to the B2B result. I will look into that more when this current 06-07 edition has played a few of those this season. i think the general breakdown can be applied to this team. Alright...

*Spurs were 4-7 SU last year on B2B games where 2nd game was on road
*Spurs were 3-8 ATS in those same eleven games

San Antonio was never a dog in these games. They always layed chalk except for a PK game at Phoenix they lost. Here are the games, with lines.

11-12-05 @ Washington 95-110(-4.5)
12-10-05 @ Atlanta 84-94(-10)
12-18-05 @ New Orleans 76-89(-6)
12-21-05 @ New York 109-96(-5)
1-7-06 @ Phoenix 86-91(PK)
1-25-06 @ New Orleans 94-68(-4)
2-2-06 @ Golden State 89-86(-7.5)
2-13-06 @ Cleveland 87-101(-2)
3-9-06 @ LA Clippers 85-99(-2.5)
3-18-06 @ Houston 92-77(-5.5)
3-22-06 @ Denver 92-104(-2)

I have taken the liberty of highlighting the SU/ATS wins. Notice the NY in there(lol).

Basically, we have a few games to compare from last year. The game at Golden St, the NY game, the Atlanta game and perhaps the first NOK game:

The Spurs lost 3 of those SU. Clearly at that point inferior opponents.

Heres the situations we have set up:

1.) The old four in five situation
2.) Back to Back games
3.) San Antonio already 0-1 on b2b this season(regardless of venue)

Situationally, I really like the Knicks here. I also like the pressure NY is under. After Saturday's game they better come in with a sense of energy or it will get ugly in MSG quick. New York will push the ball and I think Spurs get heavy legs come 4th quarter. This could be an upset in the making.

New York +6 +107

Dallas vs Golden State

I won't be as long and boring with this write-up. This is a few things colliding together...

-Dallas sitting at 0-2 and coming out with fire
-Golden State not being that good of a team

I think its time to get over last season Dallas. While I guess we can expect a sluggish November ats and even su from Dallas I think they burn off some of that tonight at home. This is still too good of a team do lose how they did Saturday night.

Dallas -9.5 -103

Utah vs Detroit

Alright, nice little situation seting up here. This is no technical situation. Its forces converging for what should be an easy play.

First of all, Detroit has struggled for 20 years it seems playing in the Delta Center or old Salt Palace. Its just always been a struggle out there. I can guess many of you folks remember last years game. Detroit was up nicely at half and Utah blew them outta the water in the 2nd half. It was quite the infamous game. I am not sure if DET was the first team but others complained as well about the higher pressure in balls used at the Delta Center. Its a good approach for Utah. Long rebounds for a very good rebounding team. That game last year Utah had a shitload of offensive rebounds. Detroit couldn't buy a jumper in the second half either. You could tell the balls were bouncing a bit stronger off those rims.

Second point, Utah's front line should have huge advantage over Detroit's. Now, the Stons are not chopped liver even w/o Ben up front. I just think the Jazz have one of the better frontlines in the enitre association. Mehmet, Boozer and AK are a great line-up. All can score, rebound and impact defensively in their own unique ways.

Utah has had a most impressive start to the season. Detroit is 2-1 but those wins were against two of the worst 5 teams in the league right now IMO. They will only get better as season lets on. This has been a tough venue for Detroit and I think its an excellent spot here for the Jazz. There is a reason they are favored. Remember, they also beat Stons ta Palace last year in OT. Its one of those teams we have trouble with

Utah -3 -105 3 units


Best of luck nba monday all!:cheers:
 
hey big al, what do you think of sacto tomorrow? they're awesome at home after coming from a su road loss...
 
glad to see that you are on utah man.. i NEVER bet against pistons but i was leaning strongly and waitin to see if u agreed.... lets go MEHMET
 
linewatcher said:
hey big al, what do you think of sacto tomorrow? they're awesome at home after coming from a su road loss...

I do lean Sacramento linewatcher. Its not like they are coming off a long road trip from East coast like it would be in the middle of the season. This was a few games out east with some rest in between.

Seattle showed tonight the old home and home(or within week rematch) angle still works pretty well. Clips showed that Saturday night.

I never mess with Minny games anymore(on or against)..so I will have to pass here.

GL
 
Like the Utah play. Bet the Knicks early at 7 minus 10 and ran off at minus 7 plus 11 cents. Think on the general situation Knicks should cover but in the same 4 in 5 spot Spurs crushed them last year and Pop and Brown were friends. Whatever happens they will be going home to play Suns in the 5 in7 spot so they really should want to win here. Bottom however is the Knicks position looks reasonable but while seeing 6.5s in 6 locations I am also seeing Pinnacle sticking with the 7 and just increasing the amount they charge. My only conclusion is they are making a plus money bet on the Spurs to cover and intend to move the line only after acquiring enough money on the Knicks to suit them. I tend to think of Pinnacle as a true Sharp and am ducking out of that game. Still hope you win it. GL
 
Agree on it all, very nice write up on the Jazz game. Makes me more confident in my play on the Jazz.

GL tomorrow, it lookgs great.
 
Hey Glad to see your on Utah as well, thought your gonna be my devils advocate on this play. Was lucky enough to grab it while it was @1.5

BOl to US!
 
BAR, those plays look all rock-solid. Utah, Sac, and Dallas JUMPED out to me. GS had some success against Dallas last season which concerns me... but this is a completely different team that is just not finding their groove right now. Will probably play that Dallas spread 1Q, HALF, and game equally. GS no no size and it's showing.. they are a few weeks off from even being close to running that offense effectively.

Utah is another nice one... long trip for Detroit.. 2nd home game in a row for the Jazz which IMO will be a top 4 seed out West. Nazr is due to struggle offensively.. and when he does I don't see the other 4 putting up enough points to compete here...
 
5 is quite high fellas. I don't know. I would still play it but not for as many units
 
Mattingly said:
BAR...like the Utah play. i may add it later...on the Bucks right now

thoughts?

Heres my thoughts on the Bucks.

-play very hard
-Hustle more than in recent years
-Bogut looks much improved
-Excellent pickup in Charlie V.
-Outside game is horrid


That last point is my main point. Outside of Mike Redd they have very little shooting. In halfcourt sets they will a hard time against bigger teams that defende the paint well.

That would be my issue in this game and ultimateyl why I layed off. Now, if the bucks push the ball enough I think they can be right in it. Be an interesting match for me to learn from.
 
DuY! said:
Hey Glad to see your on Utah as well, thought your gonna be my devils advocate on this play. Was lucky enough to grab it while it was @1.5

BOl to US!

Awesome bro. Wow, that game certainly has been steamed up.
 
tuck321 said:
Like the Utah play. Bet the Knicks early at 7 minus 10 and ran off at minus 7 plus 11 cents. Think on the general situation Knicks should cover but in the same 4 in 5 spot Spurs crushed them last year and Pop and Brown were friends. Whatever happens they will be going home to play Suns in the 5 in7 spot so they really should want to win here. Bottom however is the Knicks position looks reasonable but while seeing 6.5s in 6 locations I am also seeing Pinnacle sticking with the 7 and just increasing the amount they charge. My only conclusion is they are making a plus money bet on the Spurs to cover and intend to move the line only after acquiring enough money on the Knicks to suit them. I tend to think of Pinnacle as a true Sharp and am ducking out of that game. Still hope you win it. GL


Very interesting thoughts Tuck. Thats some good stuff regaring the lines and hoiw they price them. Something to watch for sure.
 
BossUp said:
glad to see that you are on utah man.. i NEVER bet against pistons but i was leaning strongly and waitin to see if u agreed.... lets go MEHMET

Good to see bro. We all know Detroit's history out there. It isn't pretty. In fact 2 years ago Ben sat out after the deatch of his mother and they got torched. Good comparison there as well.
 
BAR - Going to disagree with you on the Bucks outside shooting ability. Both Charlie Bell and Steve Blake can provide the outside shot off the bench and Mo Williams has improved every year. Villanueva can hit them from outside and when Simmons comes back from his injury he'll provide another punch. In half court game, both Bogut and Chilla are good with jump shots which pulls the defense out a bit, even if they're not 40% shooters from 3's.
 
Fondybadger said:
BAR - Going to disagree with you on the Bucks outside shooting ability. Both Charlie Bell and Steve Blake can provide the outside shot off the bench and Mo Williams has improved every year. Villanueva can hit them from outside and when Simmons comes back from his injury he'll provide another punch. In half court game, both Bogut and Chilla are good with jump shots which pulls the defense out a bit, even if they're not 40% shooters from 3's.

Key there is WHEN Simmons gets back

Also, Charlie can get hot but he isn't consistent enough YET

Mo Williams can make them but again inconsistent.

I guess I could clarify that better. Inconsistent outside of Mike with jumpshots. It showed to me twice this year that it is something to be concerned with.
 
B.A.R. said:
Very interesting thoughts Tuck. Thats some good stuff regaring the lines and hoiw they price them. Something to watch for sure.

I disagree with tuck here. I understand his point about Pinnacle but disagree. Pinnacle simply doesnt take sides often and does offer a 'sharp' line in regards to the flow they see. No way was Pinny taking a position last nite on NY. Why? Cause no matter what the number its clearly going to be SA money heavy on this game. They rarely take positions but when they do and its more obvious then a half point flow...they must have been getting enough SA -7 money to keep it there. I remember early in the NFL Lions @ bears ...no one trusted Chi yet and the line was 9.5 as the public continually pounded DET at every book and we saw 8 and 7.5 Pinny kept that 9.5 up there just increasing the vig to -130 and I posted that here they were doing that. Thats taking a position not this...

You know how you know a team is PUBLIC or not? Which I shouldnt even share but....look at who BoDog and SportsInteraction is shading. They are crooks and jack up the side they are getting the heavy action on.(if its the fav its a 1/2 pt here if its the dog its a1/2 pt lower then everywhere else)..but they are great for guys like me who play a ton of dogs and I get a little extra value...

BTW SA is 7 @ SIA now....Pinny is not taking a position on SA here IMHO.... it was just a case of them getting a decent two way flow. Many sharps will not play SA here and wont put there money on NY here either.
 
The other books going to 6.5 early actually shows that NYK would be a play the "sharps/pros" bang. Thats why they shaded it first cause they dont want the pro money at NYK +7 and they want the square money to start pouring it at 6.5...if they have 6.5 first SA backers will go there first at least in theory..

its there defense mechanism...trust me here my forte is reading screens and markets....

You actually(tuck) made the point why even the books think NYK is the play here....doesnt mean NY wins it means books rather have SA money here. GL
 
Utah at -5 over priced IMO and I am looking at DET...not sure it was steamed by the right people...

And If I need to better explain the move and situation on NYK and SA I certainly can and will
 
I don't think Pinny is taking a position either. They moved back down with the market.

In Utah, I made the Jazz -2.5, which I believe to be the fair number. Gotta look at Det now that it's up to 5.

Respect your opinion on the Pistons BAR, so I gotta ask: Would you still play the Jazz at -5?
 
smh212 said:
I don't think Pinny is taking a position either. They moved back down with the market.

In Utah, I made the Jazz -2.5, which I believe to be the fair number. Gotta look at Det now that it's up to 5.

Respect your opinion on the Pistons BAR, so I gotta ask: Would you still play the Jazz at -5?

certainly not 3 units. It would be a flat play at most
 
GL today B.A.R...I'm looking at Washington big...I need to get back on track after a lousy weekend in NBA and NCAA, BOL today man
 
BAR...nice writeup with Spurs/Knicks...check mine out. I swear I didnt read yours first. FYI the loss at knicks was the only time spurs were coming off a loss (in OT at MIL)
Im on Dallas but playing it 1h and GDS under points
I lean UTAH but missed the better line and not sure if I will play at 5
GL...basically identical cards
 
Lunchbox said:
BAR...nice writeup with Spurs/Knicks...check mine out. I swear I didnt read yours first. FYI the loss at knicks was the only time spurs were coming off a loss (in OT at MIL)
Im on Dallas but playing it 1h and GDS under points
I lean UTAH but missed the better line and not sure if I will play at 5
GL...basically identical cards

Excellent stuff Lunch. I did forget to put that into there about the NYN last year,. I do apologize but it helps our case even more so.

As for Dallas, excellent trend there.
 
Adding...............

New York +6 +102 1/2 unit
Dallas 1H -6 +103
GS Under 95 -104


Please see Lunchbox thread for good stuff about both games

http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6675


I honestly see like a 108-78 kind of game in Dallas tonight. I think it gets ugly early and often. My only hesistation on playing side bigger is they could still be in that hangover. I highly doubt it though
 
Thanks BAR...thats exactly what Im hoping for. They had a lot of games like that on the log last year home after a loss.
 
witcha on tha knicks, great info on tha game man. good luck on ur other games dog.
 
I'll be the first to admit I was a deer in headlights with this NYK game. All I saw was teh situation and dint look to realize how low this line was shaded for that already. I mean SA was 7.5 in Tor yesterday and its no news flash how weak my NYK are...+3 @ ATL...

Sorry guys..it aint over but it mine as well be. I felt SA would be up in teh 1st H but fail to pull away...I was so wrong
 
Well, looking like a horrid night to say the least.

Knicks are well...the Knicks

Golden State is shooting 64 percent...cannot miss..looking like 0-2 to start that game and if this keeps up 0-3

In SLC, Utah is getting the offensive boards but DEt playing solid now. Still like my end there
 
hope UTAH sticks it out here,
NYK is fading here...
hoping to bounce back on SAC-4.5 and PORT+11
 
Spurs shooting over 50% from three and the bulls missing 10 ft's .. not a good combo
 
sorry about the GDS analysis Big Al....on pace to allow by far more than any other time last year in this spot. Thought 59 from mavs would get the 1h play...mavs prolly cover now...under points is gone..terrible call...maybe the knicks can get lucky for us
 
Damn man, sorry about the allas game.., not often we completely disagree on a game STill a lot of time left. G luck hittin that Jazz play that should ease some of the pain with a nice cash...
 
My Mavs are giving me heartburn. I think its time we stop expecting something out of the Mavs until they show otherwise.
 
albyman thats what i have been sayin since the last preseason game. They looked uninterested and unmotivated in the preseason. Terry came in out of shape. And i think they still have that hangover from blowing the finals.. I didnt like their offseason moves at all.. Still think this is a good team but lets not kid ourselves, the spurs are the best team in the west when healthy.
 
Thats the catch with the Spurs abcs. With all those old guys when are they ever healthy. Mavs will be fine by the end of the year. I'll respectfully disagree about the offseason moves. I loved the moves and it only made the team even deeper. We go 10 or 11 deep with NBA vets. Problem right now is that the offense is too stagnant. Its a carbon copy of games 3-6 of the NBA finals minus the phantom calls for the other team (yes the fix was in by Stern). Too much standing around with iso plays and settling for jumpers. We're not getting to the line enough and relying on hitting shots too much. I think its partly because we're integrating a lot of new pieces into the team. The D will still be good as it was last year. Tonight is an aberration. We always hemorrhage points to the Warriors for whatever reason. I think its cuz of their athleticism. This team will be fine but for now its time to lay off. At worst, even if they don't take it to the hoop more, the shots will start to fall since its early in the year and players are probably still getting backin into shooting rhythm.
 
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