MNF wk1

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tee*dub

tee*dub

Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
2007 posted on ctg:

ATS 28-19 , +26100
ML dogs 4-2, +14400
Teasers 2-7, -6800
ML favs 1-1, +300
Totals 5-8,-4450
HT wager 16-7, +18,500
Props 0-1, , -1600

2007 Overall NFL 56-45, +46,350
______________________________

2008 posted on CTG

ATS 5-1, $+6300

_________________________________________________

Perfect 4-0 yesterday picking up 13 units. Pretty good weekend in all sports.. Buyer beware-- it doesn't work that way every weekend.

Raiders +3 -115, 4 units

I'll adress the first game briefly.. I lean the Vikings but it seems too much like gambling to me, so I'll watch the first half and see if value presents itself at HT.. Way too much love around here on the Packers IMO. You can't run on the Vikings and not many teams will try. With the addition of Allen on the edge and the fact that Rogers will be wearing diapers so he doesn't shit his pants in his first start I do not see how anyone can be comfortable that the packers are going to move the ball via the pass.. Just my opinion and yes Jackson scares me enough to stay off this game but if I knew he was 100% healthy I would jump the Vikes. I will definately be looking to get involved at HT.

Denver/Oakland--

Head scratcher and a fun game to cap. How do you make Oakland a home dog here? A few points :

  • Cutler faded bad last year. Turns out he had diabetes that apparently has been corrected. He has problems tonight. First, WR Marshall (102 receptions LY) is serving one game suspension tonight so rookie Royal get the start opposite Darrell Jackson.
  • Second, Denver O-line doesn't have a single starter back from LY.
  • Third-- Denver RB corps are very thin after losing two in the preseason
  • Broncos Defense, although they have attempted to revamp, it allowed nearly 150 YPG rushing LY. I like the DBs for Denver but feel they will be overmatched tonight if the weak Denver D-line can't pressure Russell, and I don't think they will.
  • Oakland--
  • I like Russel and he got a cup of coffee at the end of the year to build some confidence.. Was 23-31 in last game v. SD , granted SD did not play a lot of starters.
  • Welcome to the NFL Darren Mcfadden who has absolutely no pressure because he will split time with Justin Vargas who by the way rushed for 146 in the Raiders 34-20 win vs Denver LY.
  • Better team is Oakland and we got them at home, on Monday night..Yep
Considered the Raiders ML but decided the 3 points might come in handy in a pretty low scoring game..

GL all..:cheers:
 
Russell can throw the ball through the torso of a Denver LB, and it will still have enough mustard on it to reach his WR 10 yds deep.

No one called more rushing plays last year than Oakland. Fargas is a security blanket, but the Razorback stud will shine.

On it as well. GL to us, tee
 
Good Luck Tee. FYI GB has 3 of there starting O-line out.

Allen has been preaching about this game since the first day he arrived in Minnesota. I haven't heard alot of news about T-Jack, but rust will be a factor.

Either way, has there ever been as much pressure this season on one player to perform well, as there is tonight?

He can't fail, otherwise the Packers Fans will have his head on a platter.

AP hurt his knee in last years game, so maybe a little revenge will be in order.
 
Marlo Stanfield said:
Good Luck Tee. FYI GB has 3 of there starting O-line out.

Allen has been preaching about this game since the first day he arrived in Minnesota. I haven't heard alot of news about T-Jack, but rust will be a factor.

Either way, has there ever been as much pressure this season on one player to perform well, as there is tonight?

He can't fail, otherwise the Packers Fans will have his head on a platter.

AP hurt his knee in last years game, so maybe a little revenge will be in order.
Click to expand...

Ya, I do like the Vikes but can't get it off of "lean" staus.. Like the late play much better so rolling with that.
 
Good Luck Tee . Thinking opposite here of you in the NFL.

One thing with Rodgers and you said you respect the Den CBs is well he torched Denvers 1st team defense in preseason game #3 going 16-19 vs the starters for 178 yds 1 TD . Then he followed it up in his tuneup by throwinga 68YD TD to Jennings 1st play of the game and took the rest of the night off. Dont see why Rodgers throwing the ball is a concern or why after unleashing him all preseason they would suddenly hold him back . Serious question , do you see why they would ?? He already played in a big PRIMETIME game @ DALLAS in relief and shined so why would he be scared ? I really dont think a highly touted athlete like him is worried about Brett Favre's shadow . Unlike OAK who didnt even up th eoffense in xhibition football unlikely they would here vs Denver .......

Denver line is just fishy as was Philly and Dallas both seemed way to strong and got stronger as the week progressed...same here...

So DEN is missing its CENTER and stud WR but the line went higher ?? Do like Jackson , Stokely , Royal and Scheffler though in the passing game.....Oak's offense sputtered all preseason so cant expect it to just find its groove because the stats count now . DEN will always be able to run the ball no matter who is on the OL and taking the handoffs IMO and OAK is just poor vs the run and if there intention is to allow Wilson to sneak up then CUtler will exploit that IMO......

I think the close games last year skew OAKs strength. They did run all over Denver but Cutler has progressed and should be much better away from DENVER . I think @ Denver the Broncos were coasting and the long Porter TD gave OAK some life which they then scored then next 10 points off of there defense...Walker is huge here and not sure how healthy he is . Without him there WRs are worse then last year ...scary thought . Even scarier is Josh McNown might be a better option at QB then Russell is now. The fact OAK beat them badly last meeting makes me think DENVER jumps out here ( 4turnovers that game) ...Plus that OAK game was off that TOUGH OT loss on MNF to Chicago( blew a 2 TD lead in 10 minutes) definite FLAT spot where OAK had more to gain being the underdog in the rivalry and having Russell make his NFL debut ...just think OAK didnt play as well as it looks vs DEN last year and nothing has really changed in OAK where as DEN had high expectation coming into 07 and there seems to be little chatter about them now.

Before that loss DEN had really played well @ OAKLAND in recent years ..

W22-8 -3
W31-3 -2.5
W 31-17 -3
W17-13 -9
L34-20 -3.5

Looks like small chalk for me today ....GL bro..nothing crazy though ...:cheers:
 
On another note does anyone feel Cutler playing with untreated diabetes in 07 and now having that under control alone makes for a better QB? I think so because he probably felt sluggish last season...

Peyton Hillis @ FB ...kid did block for Felix Jones and McFadden and unseat Cecil Sapp..

Eddie Royal @ WR ...almost everyone forget how talented he was because VT QB stunk in past seasons...

Nalen is out but exBear and Cheif Weigmann is in...

They lost Torain but Selvin Young , Andre Hall and all purpose Michael Pittman make for a very good stable with high upside..

speaking of WRs...Royal , DJ , Stokely , Colbert pretty solid w/o Barndon Marshall..

just some shit to think about it will be interesting to see how the DEN OL plays...

OAK offense just a HUGE ISSUE for me ..

18 pts 1st preseason game but TD on a punt return

17 the next game 3 on a 56 ydFG

shutout in the pivotal 3rd preseason game( home vs Zona McFadded 12c 40yds but worse Russell 28 attempts and 140yds ...

16 pts in the finale where Russell sat ..again 50yd FG of the 3 FGs and TD with2 minutes left in the game.....

Just hard to see OAK scoring even 17 pts and not sure how 14 pts wins Oak this game or a cover

Also OAK played weak preseason teams and offenses SF Ten ARI SEA:cheers:
 
Agree to disagree Nut. Use preseason very little in my capping. Very misleading info esp. If you are only looking at the numbers. GL
 
Nice pick on the Cards regular season wins. Too bad they won't be there in October. Fan since the 67 world series.
 
tee*dub said:
Agree to disagree Nut. Use preseason very little in my capping. Very misleading info esp. If you are only looking at the numbers. GL
Click to expand...

Well I agree and disagree with that . Players that are unproven and have done nothing to dismiss that will continue to have low expectations in my book . Players that have done it before (ie: the vets) then you dont take much stock in it . Players who need to step up and do at least they have taken a step in teh right direction. It may be smoke and mirrors but they are still ahead of the guy who didnt perform in exhibition season..

Its all about how one uses things and no one seems to even acknowledge his late play in the exhibition season which makes relevant . If everyone starts relying on the preseason stats ( as in say the DET LIONS) then it becomes irrelevant IMO...

I really think every NFL team played like did it in the preseason if you look at it team by team...minus the extremes ..never that good and never that bad type performances...

:cheers:
 
SportsNut said:
Well I agree and disagree with that . Players that are unproven and have done nothing to dismiss that will continue to have low expectations in my book . Players that have done it before (ie: the vets) then you dont take much stock in it . Players who need to step up and do at least they have taken a step in teh right direction. It may be smoke and mirrors but they are still ahead of the guy who didnt perform in exhibition season..

Its all about how one uses things and no one seems to even acknowledge his late play in the exhibition season which makes relevant . If everyone starts relying on the preseason stats ( as in say the DET LIONS) then it becomes irrelevant IMO...

I really think every NFL team played like did it in the preseason if you look at it team by team...minus the extremes ..never that good and never that bad type performances...

:cheers:
Click to expand...

bro more than 50% of the snaps are by players who aren't even on the rosters now.. Evaluating a players Health etc is a worthwhile preseason study.. The rest is very misleading and can lead to very bad decisions in wk one IMO.. How did Bulger look in week 3 against Balty (his last appearance).. All Pro material right? Why?- he plays against a Balty defense that pulled all its starters very early and didn't play Ed reed at all.. How did Bulger look this week? You mentioned Rogers went 16-19 or something in preseason game.. Great but that is not transferrable and unless you discount that, all I am saying is I see more mistakes by cappers using that info than almost anything else.. Lets drop it.. It is a pet peave of mine and I can tell you feel strongly about it also.. We definately disagree on the subject.:shake:
 
looks like Rogers is settling in. Glad I stayed off this game.. 2nd game can't start soon enough for me.:smiley_acbe:
 
Ya nothing in the HT IMO.. Think Peterson has looked pretty good and with the missed FG Vikes should have some momentum.. Jackson is just brutal though...

Oakland Raiders :smiley_acbe::smiley_acbe:
 
BTW-- promise to get rid of the annoying Cardinals season win "signature" as soon as STL wins game #78 .. Hopefully tommorow..
 
Just observing the Viking game.. Why go for two there? Way too early.. Now if the Pack come back and kick a fg, its an 8 point game as opposed to a 7 pt game..

Amazes me how often NFL coaches get that wrong, and announcers.. Only go to the chart under 6 mintutes to play:hang:
 
Tee,

Been leaning Raiders all day but haven't pulled the trigger. Due to me dragging my feet, the best price I can get now is -3 -125. At that juice I think I'd rather take the ml @ +120.

My only worries are that this is a division rivalry with an inexperienced QB in Russell...those 3 pt's might come in handy.

Thoughts?
 
HookEm811 said:
Tee,

Been leaning Raiders all day but haven't pulled the trigger. Due to me dragging my feet, the best price I can get now is -3 -125. At that juice I think I'd rather take the ml @ +120.

My only worries are that this is a division rivalry with and inexperienced QB in Russell...those 3 pt's might come in handy.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

I'd pay the tariff but having said that I fully expect the raiders to win.. Just like the out at +3.. You said -3 above.. assume you mean +3.. GL bro:cheers:
 
Blue_Chip said:
Are you going to the CTG get together?
Click to expand...
No, that weekend won't work. I have a diving problem and will be in the keys-- hurricane willing.. My host at the Wynn got laid off and they are getting real tight so may switch off.. I have always used the same host for years and have always been RFB. She was at Mirage b4 Wynn.. Sports gamblers don't get alot of status at major casinos but my host helped get me what I needed as she knew the level I played.. Things have changed apparently with the economy out there.. May go back to Ceasars.:cheers:
 
tee*dub said:
bro more than 50% of the snaps are by players who aren't even on the rosters now.. Evaluating a players Health etc is a worthwhile preseason study.. The rest is very misleading and can lead to very bad decisions in wk one IMO.. How did Bulger look in week 3 against Balty (his last appearance).. All Pro material right? Why?- he plays against a Balty defense that pulled all its starters very early and didn't play Ed reed at all.. How did Bulger look this week? You mentioned Rogers went 16-19 or something in preseason game.. Great but that is not transferrable and unless you discount that, all I am saying is I see more mistakes by cappers using that info than almost anything else.. Lets drop it.. It is a pet peave of mine and I can tell you feel strongly about it also.. We definately disagree on the subject.:shake:
Click to expand...

It's 2 entirely different situations though . First Bulger was home vs Balt and it doesnt take much research to know who played and didnt . You know me long enough to at least acknowledge I wouldnt be some dope drooling over stats in the preseason . You cant compare Bulger at home vs BALT (whose defense drops off away) playing against Joe Flacco to Bulger playing @ Philly( STL on grass on teh road whats there record last 10 years) . How did Bulger look before that ? Like shit as the Rams offense always does . It's fine if we disagree and dont mean to argue nonsense with you but just wanted to clarify what I was trying to say . My quoting the stats I was simply trying to say he executed as well as one could possibly do leading his teams to points in 5 of 6 drives . I would never weigh stats for any player versus 3rd snd 4th stringers ...the stuff on Rodgers was all vs 1st stringers

Not arguing with you Tee . Justed wanted you to understand where I was coming from ....:cheers:
 
You were right about this Raider game Sportsnut. The Raiders continue to compete for the Rams as the worst team in the NFL.
 
wiseplayer said:
You were right about this Raider game Sportsnut. The Raiders continue to compete for the Rams as the worst team in the NFL.
Click to expand...

Yep, Nut was right.

As the caveman vs Billy Jean king says: "I get it, I quit, but I get it"

I am out of here for awhile guys.. :shake: GL on the season.
 
raiders r just god awful...with all the youth there still is no glimmer of hope, they are undisciplined and cant execute....


u can't cap Raider ineptness:hang:

get em next time TDub:shake:
 
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TEE is the best this is a marathon not a sprint, no one can pick every game, but after the fact everone looks like a genius-- TEE is the man,he wins , even if he doesent win he is stil the man because he does his research and invests and does not gamble
 
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