MLB

Loves2kickass

Here to cap the games
WED, JUNE 25, 2025

1. Oakland Athletics (+160) vs. Detroit Tigers

Jacob Lopez (1.4 ERA, 4.25 ERA) is in top form, with 1 ER over 12 IP and 19 strikeouts in his last three starts. Jack Flaherty (5-8, 4.83 ERA) is struggling, allowing 15 runs over 7 innings recently, making him vulnerable to the Athletics’ hot bats.

The Athletics’ lineup features Brent Rooker (1.084 OPS) and Nick Kurtz (5 HR last 12 games), capable of capitalizing on Flaherty’s mistakes. Detroit’s offense is solid, but Lopez’s recent dominance could keep them in check early.

The Athletics’ bullpen is the league’s worst (ERA ~5.97), but if Lopez goes 6+ innings, this minimizes their impact, reducing the risk. Detroit’s bullpen is average performance, is not a significant advantage.

The Athletics have been a sneaky underdog, with their improving offense and scrappy play style. The +160 odds offer excellent value for an upset, especially given Flaherty’s struggles against left-handed hitters like Rooker.

Comerica Park’s pitcher-friendly conditions (70°F, light wind) favor Lopez’s ground-ball approach, potentially keeping the Tigers’ power in check, potentially leading to a low-scoring game.

At +160, the Athletics offer the best risk-reward balance. A $100 bet returns $160 profit if they win, and their chances are boosted by Lopez’s form and Flaherty’s struggles. Even if they lose, the odds justify the bet’s value.

2. Washington Nationals (+120) vs. San Diego Padres

If you prefer a safer underdog, the Nationals are a strong alternative. MacKenzie Gore’s high strikeout rate and ability to limit the Padres’ offense, combined with Washington’s improving lineup, make them a competitive underdog. Petco Park’s pitcher-friendly environment supports a low-scoring game, increasing the Nationals’ chances of an upset. The +120 odds offer solid value.
 
Might take a stab on Gore ks after the first inning if he doesn't get one. SD is a tough team to strikeout so I'm guessing that will be reflected in the number but finding 5 ks should be doable if he can go 6 innings.
 
Recap: Oakland Athletics vs Detroit Tigers
The Oakland Athletics cash my best risk/reward bet today, 3-0, as a very nice +160 underdog, returning $160 on a $100 bet.

As mentioned - Jacob Lopez continued his recent hot form, giving up just 3 hits, 0 earned runs with 6 strikeouts in 7 innings.

As mentioned - Nick Kurtz added to his recent long ball tendencies with a 438 foot 2 run home run to center field in the top half of the 3rd inning.

As mentioned - Jack Flaherty continued his recent struggles allowing 3 runs on 5 hits with 4 walks in 6 innings of work. Those numbers could have been worse if not for the 6 runners stranded for Oakland.

Recap: Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres
The Washington Nationals came up a run short, losing 1-0 to the San Diego Padres in my less confident, second choice today.

As mentioned - MacKenzie Gore continued his high strikeout rate, fanning 6 Padres hitters in 6 innings of work.

As mentioned - The Washington Nationals were a competitive underdog.

As mentioned - low scoring game which increased their chance of winning, they just couldn't get a runner across the plate.
 
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