Loves2kickass
Here to cap the games
Tue, June 24
Methodology (Implied probability, pitching matchups/bullpen, individual/team batting stats, trends, weather, value estimation)
Best Value Bets (estimated win probability exceeds the implied probability by a significant margin (typically 5%+ to account for vig).
1. Phillies +134 @ Astros (Estimated win probability: 48% vs. 42.7% implied; strong value)
2. Reds +140 @ Yankees (Estimated win probability: 45% vs. 41.7% implied; strong value)
3. Rangers +119 @ Orioles (Estimated win probability: 48% vs. 45.7% implied; good value)
4. Royals -130 @ Rays (Estimated win probability: 62% vs. 56.5% implied; good value)
Top Recommendation
The Philadelphia Phillies +134 @ Houston Astros offers the best value. Ranger Suarez’s 2.20 ERA and 9.0 K/9 give Philly a strong chance against Framber Valdez, whose groundball style is less dominant. The +134 odds undervalue Philly’s upset potential in a near-toss-up game, providing a significant edge.
Methodology (Implied probability, pitching matchups/bullpen, individual/team batting stats, trends, weather, value estimation)
Best Value Bets (estimated win probability exceeds the implied probability by a significant margin (typically 5%+ to account for vig).
1. Phillies +134 @ Astros (Estimated win probability: 48% vs. 42.7% implied; strong value)
2. Reds +140 @ Yankees (Estimated win probability: 45% vs. 41.7% implied; strong value)
3. Rangers +119 @ Orioles (Estimated win probability: 48% vs. 45.7% implied; good value)
4. Royals -130 @ Rays (Estimated win probability: 62% vs. 56.5% implied; good value)
Top Recommendation
The Philadelphia Phillies +134 @ Houston Astros offers the best value. Ranger Suarez’s 2.20 ERA and 9.0 K/9 give Philly a strong chance against Framber Valdez, whose groundball style is less dominant. The +134 odds undervalue Philly’s upset potential in a near-toss-up game, providing a significant edge.
