MLB Predictions + Analysis

[Loves2kickass]

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
May 23, 2025 4:05 PM
George M. Steinbrenner Field

Toronto’s surging offense (3rd in May wRC+), success against Rasmussen (Bichette’s .300 BA), and the Rays’ struggles vs. lefties (71 wRC+) give the Blue Jays an edge. Lauer’s historical issues vs. Tampa (8.76 ERA) are concerning, but his 2025 form (2.25 ERA, 0.83 WHIP) and Tampa’s .095 ISO vs. LHP mitigate this. Rasmussen’s pitch count limit (likely 80-85) and recent extra-base hit issues (11 in 5 starts) favor Toronto’s hot bats. The Blue Jays’ 51.7% underdog win rate (+121) and 3-game win streak outweigh the Rays’ 44.4% favorite win rate (-135).

Toronto Blue Jays +121

 

[KJ]

Lauer is going to have to go deep. Toronto burned through 7 bullpen pitchers yesterday. Not playing Rays against lefty so hope it hits for you but the situation is less than ideal for the Blow Jays.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Lauer is going to have to go deep. Toronto burned through 7 bullpen pitchers yesterday. Not playing Rays against lefty so hope it hits for you but the situation is less than ideal for the Blow Jays.

The Blue Jays should capitalize on Rasmussen’s regression and their offensive momentum, while Lauer should limit Tampa’s weak lefty-hitting lineup.

 

[slim5150]

Im on toronto as well, for reasons far less than the analysis you provided. I love every bit of it, so thanks for providing the detail.

As of this writing tor is down 3 zip off 2 home runs. 1 each to a lefty and a righty. I guess the slight helping wind finally helped thw rays out here at home. Still time, but they have some work to do yet