MLB opening week discussion

2daBank

2daBank

2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Didn’t see a thread up yet so thought I’d get started. Didn’t know if anyone wanted to do daily but figured we could at least put the 1st few days in one place. I usually tread pretty lightly the 1st few starts thru rotation but ramp up pretty quick once we get into middle of April and into May.

Doubt I’ll play anything tonight but have a few dogs I’ll prob be on thu/fri and possibly a few props, one jumped out to me when I started looking today:

Liberatore ov 3.5 k’s -162

Ya’ll know I don’t lay this kinda juice very often outside the occasional out total I think justifiable. Don’t love doing this right out the gates when it a pretty good bet pitchers won’t be maxing out, I’ve also been pretty skeptical of this kid since cards traded for him. All that said he has looked like a different pitcher this spring with a better looking change up and vastly improved swing and miss numbers which is kinda a carryover from looking fairly decent at the end last season where he fanned 4+ in 6 his last 7 w 5 games of 5+. His command appears better this spring as well so I don’t expect we have to worry bout his pitch count getting away early and a short outing, think it a safe bet he goes at least 5 innings and if the spring numbers any indicator we won’t see this low a number on him many times. Not opposed to 5+ at +142 either cause I had 4.5 -115 jotted down when I went thru card, just feel like 3.5 more a slam dunk than -162 indicates.
 
Trevor rogers ov 15.5 outs -115

Liked his ov 4.5 k’s also but played with my food and it shot up to -148 on me. Again be easy on these to start the season cause it tough to say how many pitches they go. That said he threw 82 pitches his last spring start going 5.1 innings so think it safe to assume 85-90 pitches long as he not being overly stressed and it not like teams want their starters getting pulled at 5 innings and the pens having to carry a huge load right out the gates either. He went at least 5.1 in 15 his 18 starts last season and was very efficient with his pitches as he only threw more than 100 3x and all those got him 6+ innings. He was fantastic in day starts and at Camden park all season hitting this mark in every home start! Always been a fan this dude it just took 3-4 years and a team change to be right! 😂
 
One thing I didn’t do before playing these is look at weather at all. That probably isn’t the best idea as weather can kill these things, overly excited I guess 😂 Don’t see any rain issues. Gonna be redic warm here in stl but that not bad, ball might carry more than lot of opening days here but also prob better for pitchers arm.
 
Bos/cincy ov 8

Warm day in cincy I just can’t pass up a number this low in that band box on a warm and humid day. Neither pitcher has looked all that sharP this spring either but this really just bout park, weather, and low number.
 
Well that what I get for putting any faith in Liberatore, he was actually worse than his stat line.

Rogers was pretty much on point, had a few times he lost command but was still efficient and got out of any trouble he put himself in.
 
Joecar said:
Do you have any sides you like today? Or you just do props mostly?
Click to expand...

pretty mixed bag. I play a bunch of 1st 5 team totals and pitcher props (some hitter props but far less) but throughout year ton of sides/totals also, mostly dogs. I just like to wait a few weeks/couple times thru rotation before I start firing away. I do way better with volume than trying to pick and choose and just don’t want to be making 5-6-7 plays a day until I see a few starts.
 
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