MLB Offseason Thread

you'd have to guess that he's not really a 6 WAR player. His offensive numbers were basically identical in 14, 15, and 16. Hard to believe his defense was really that much better last year to make him a 6 WAR player. He's likely a 3.5 WAR player, still pretty good, but not Top 5. Not outside the top 30 either of course.
 
cubsker said:
you'd have to guess that he's not really a 6 WAR player. His offensive numbers were basically identical in 14, 15, and 16. Hard to believe his defense was really that much better last year to make him a 6 WAR player. He's likely a 3.5 WAR player, still pretty good, but not Top 5. Not outside the top 30 either of course.
Click to expand...


Yeah, I don't think he's a 6. He's been 3.1, 3.7, and 6 the past 3 years. I've read a lot about the "noise" in his defensive stats from 15 and it seems to be an outlier (some contributed it to a shoulder injury, but i have no clue). If you think he's a 3.5 WAR player (reasonable argument), that would total 10.5 over the past 3 years. (actual is 12.8)

I compare him to a Ben Zobrist type with better defense. He's firmly one of the top 15 outfielders, imo. I don't think people realize how good he is.
 
1. Betts
2. Adam Jones
3. Trumbo
4. Bautista
5. Maybin
6. J. Upton
7. Gordon
8. Cain
9. Beltran
10. Desmond
11. Mazara
12. Cruz
13. Trout
14. Calhoun
15. Springer
16. Harper
17. Turner
18. Inciarte
19. Kemp
20. Cespedes
21. Granderson
22. Stanton
23. Yelich
24. Ozuna
25. Bruce
26. Fowler
27. Zobrist
28. Piscotty
29. Cutch
30. Polanco
31. Marte
32. Braun
33. Pence
34. Puig
35. Dahl
36. Blackmon
37. Cargo
38. Pollock

...and i'm sure i forgot some
 
GWarner27 said:
1. Betts
2. Adam Jones
3. Trumbo
4. Bautista
5. Maybin
6. J. Upton
7. Gordon
8. Cain
9. Beltran
10. Desmond
11. Mazara
12. Cruz
13. Trout
14. Calhoun
15. Springer
16. Harper
17. Turner
18. Inciarte
19. Kemp
20. Cespedes
21. Granderson
22. Stanton
23. Yelich
24. Ozuna
25. Bruce
26. Fowler
27. Zobrist
28. Piscotty
29. Cutch
30. Polanco
31. Marte
32. Braun
33. Pence
34. Puig
35. Dahl
36. Blackmon
37. Cargo
38. Pollock

...and i'm sure i forgot some
Click to expand...


I don't know what to say other than that list is terrible.

I could go through a list of all, but that seems pointless. The most egregious errors are:

Cameron Maybin- career .259/.322/.373 hitter iwth league average (now below) defense
Cain- pretty much the same player... a little better defense, little worse offense
Desmond- Woah
Beltran- too old. Defense is terrible. Silghy better offense though.
Mazera- might get there. Must worse offensively and defensively in 2016 though
Calhoun- basically Eaton offensively but, much worse defensily.
Inciarte- a little better defensively, much, much worse offensively.
Kemp- Not sure where this comes from. Not as good offensively and a trainwreck on defense
Granderson- similar on offense- bad on defense
Bruce?- that might be the worst on the group. He's played to the level of a replacement player over the past 3 years.
Ozuna- Far worse offensively. Worse defensively.
Fowler-Really similar shown in article above.
Polanco- not even close at this point


There are others on the list that Eaton is clearly better than, but the ones listed were odd choices. I'm still laughing over Jay Bruce and Matt Kemp though.
 
i wonder if we're even talking about the same guy at this point

Eaton doesn't hit for power, doesn't hit for average, doesn't steal bases, maybe walks a bit more than average? So he's basically nothing at the plate and got moved out of CF despite having good speed
 
GWarner27 said:
i wonder if we're even talking about the same guy at this point

Eaton doesn't hit for power, doesn't hit for average, doesn't steal bases, maybe walks a bit more than average? So he's basically nothing at the plate and got moved out of CF despite having good speed
Click to expand...

Agreed. There is no chance that Eaton is anywhere near a top 10 OF in the league (let alone a top 5), and it'd be tough to see him being in the top 20, to be honest.
 
there's a bunch on there that are way worse than adam eaton...

Puig - good god, he doesn't even start half the time.
inciarte - never had a year as good as eaton's last 3.
mazara - i guess he is better, as long as you don't count hitting or defense or baserunning.
ozuna - no
dahl - he's played half a season
piscotty - offense basically the same, eaton miles better on d and baserunning.
granderson - i hope you're kidding.
jay bruce - is this 2010?
 
GWarner27 said:
i wonder if we're even talking about the same guy at this point

Eaton doesn't hit for power, doesn't hit for average, doesn't steal bases, maybe walks a bit more than average? So he's basically nothing at the plate and got moved out of CF despite having good speed
Click to expand...

"doesn't hit for power"- This is probably the most legitimate criticism. He is not a power hitter. He's more of a 10 homerun, a bunch of doubles type hitter.
"doesn't hit for average"- Eaton has the 13th highest batting average for outfielders over the past 3 years at .290.
"doesn't steal bases"- Eaton is 21st in stolen bases among outfielders over the past 3 years. But, he's baserunning numbers far exceed that because of his ability to take extra bases.


Eaton is a guy that does everything well, but doesn't stand out because he doesn't have huge homerun totals. Over the past 3 years, he has hit .290/.362/.422 with a 117wRC+. Which means, instead of being a basically nothing at the plate, he's 17% better than the league average hitter. Here are some of the guys you listed:

Beltran-115
Calhoun 115
Caub 113
Trumbo 110
Blackmon 110
Gordon 109
Cargo 106
Ozuna 105
Desmond 99
Maybin 98
Polanco 98
Inciarte 95
Bruce 94

So hes a really good defensive outfielder that is a better hitter than most of the guys you had on that list.
 
Pretty spirited discussion about Adam Eaton. I've always thought his defense to be his calling card and kind of considered him a disappointment at the plate, but dollaz makes some good points. Tribe could use him, I'll say that much.
 
surprised no EE post, Tip. you get Carrasco, Salazar, and maybe even Brantley back. the OF needs a tweak, not knowing what to expect from Brantley, but the lineup will still be very solid. the staff, starters and pen, will be outstanding. miller was/is a difference maker there. gonna be a good '17 for you.
 
yeah no idea what to expect from Brantley, Carrasco should come back healthy but i'm also unsure about Salazar
 
GWarner27 said:
he's a bigger threat in a lineup and hits the ball out of the ballpark, more than you can say about Eaton
Click to expand...

He hits the ball out of the ballpark more often yes, but homeruns are not the only judge of offensive production. And that ignores the extreme negative that Kemp is on defense.


Over the past 3 years, Eaton has hit .290/.362/.422 with a .344 wOBA and 117 wRC+.
Over the past 3 years, Kemp has hit .273/.319/.482 with a .342 wOBA and 119 wRC+.

Kemp has more power, but he also gets on base way less. There is nothing more important to offense than not getting out. Power is a nice compliment.
 
agreed OBP is important, but Eaton doesn't run once he gets on and is reliant on others to knock him in while Kemp does it himself so I will forever consider him a bigger threat in a lineup (which is how I went about my list).

Happy to move on :shake:
 
GWarner27 said:
agreed OBP is important, but Eaton doesn't run once he gets on and is reliant on others to knock him in while Kemp does it himself so I will forever consider him a bigger threat in a lineup (which is how I went about my list).

Happy to move on :shake:
Click to expand...

Happy to move on after I have last word :rofl: You are discounting base running. There is a lot of value in baserunning outside of stealing bases. A team full of high on base low sluggers would outscore low obb high sluggers.

I just don't think people understand the value of guys that get on base a lot. :cheers3:


onto the Indians. Geez, they should be loaded.
 
GWarner27 said:
1. Betts
2. Adam Jones
3. Trumbo
4. Bautista
5. Maybin
6. J. Upton
7. Gordon
8. Cain
9. Beltran
10. Desmond
11. Mazara
12. Cruz
13. Trout
14. Calhoun
15. Springer
16. Harper
17. Turner
18. Inciarte
19. Kemp
20. Cespedes
21. Granderson
22. Stanton
23. Yelich
24. Ozuna
25. Bruce
26. Fowler
27. Zobrist
28. Piscotty
29. Cutch
30. Polanco
31. Marte
32. Braun
33. Pence
34. Puig
35. Dahl
36. Blackmon
37. Cargo
38. Pollock


...and i'm sure i forgot some
Click to expand...


omg this can't be real.


Dollaz said:
He hits the ball out of the ballpark more often yes, but homeruns are not the only judge of offensive production. And that ignores the extreme negative that Kemp is on defense.




Over the past 3 years, Eaton has hit .290/.362/.422 with a .344 wOBA and 117 wRC+.
Over the past 3 years, Kemp has hit .273/.319/.482 with a .342 wOBA and 119 wRC+.


Kemp has more power, but he also gets on base way less. There is nothing more important to offense than not getting out. Power is a nice compliment.
Click to expand...


actually, your last statement is incorrect. wRC+, RC, wOBA, etc are all weighted runs created. having an equal wRC+ means they are equally valuable at creating runs. In your example, they do it in different ways, as you pointed out, but it's not more valuable to get on base if the guy who gets on base at a lesser clip hits for more power...


------
That being said, as it stands now, the Cubs, Dodgers, and Indians should all be heavy favorites for the division with the Nats as a good favorite but having the mets within striking distance. Obviously injuries will happen, but it looks like each NL division race could potentially be decided by mid August as things stand now.
 
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<iframe frameborder="0" src="https://tpc.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-5/html/container.html#xpc=sf-gdn-exp-1&p=https%3A//www.washingtonpost.com" id="google_ads_iframe_/701/wpni.sports/blog/dc-sports-bog_2" title="3rd party ad content" name="" scrolling="no" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" width="200" height="60" data-is-safeframe="true" style="box-sizing: border-box; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; vertical-align: bottom;"></iframe>








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Nationals GM Mike Rizzo told Fantasy Sports Radio on Monday that Shawn Kelley, Blake Treinen, and Koda Glover are competing to be the team's closer.

Rizzo also said that he's had no recent trade talks for relief help, so the job will probably go to one of these three. Kelley figures to be the front-runner here in February after registering a strong 2.64 ERA, 0.897 WHIP, and 80/11 K/BB ratio in 58 innings last season for Washington. It's a story we'll be tracking all spring.
Source: Jim Bowden on Twitter
 
Nationals manager Dusty Baker indicated Tuesday that the club is likely to trade Derek Norris after reaching an agreement with free agent catcher Matt Wieters.

Baker said "there's always someone looking for a front line catcher." The Nationals apparently didn't feel secure enough with Norris as their primary backstop, but the feeling is that he'll end up playing elsewhere in 2017 rather than serve as Wieters' backup. The 28-year-old batted just .186/.255/.328 last season, but he's capable of better and he's owed just $4.2 million in 2017. He could draw some interest in the days ahead.
 
Kelley seems like the guy, but man i can't ever understand what WSH is doing. Going for it and not going for it with deal after deal that go in opposite directions
 
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