MLB Monday: new week, new start!
- Thread starter Satyr
- Start date
reNew Orleans
Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
good night man, you should mellow out... if ya know what i mean.
tuck321
Not all those who wander are lost
Been debating whether to comment. Generally when someone is losing a polite gl and going away is good idea. But you are a very regular bettor and a nice guy so I am going to make a stab at it. You bet a road favorite whose pitcher had a 5ish road era at Cleveland with one of the best home records in baseball who had been in a slump but was 3-2 the five games before today. You bet the Cardinals who had just gone thru an incredible energy draining 4 games vs Oakland and KC against a KC team that was 6-4 last 10 and had won 3 series in a row. You bet an Angels team after it had completed a incity rivalry series with the Dodgers as a large favorite even though they recently suffered serious injuries and were playing a Houston team that was 6-4 its last 10 with probably its best pitcher when they were hitting the best they have this year. In every game you bet against teams that were playing well when your team had secondary disadvantages. These games were not easy. I never even posted a side play today today because I knew the situations were confusing but you as handicapper have to know that laying money odds against teams that are playing well is just losing strategy. Thing is I believe you have a personal concept that you normally only bet teams of a certain elite status. Problem is while using a filter like that is not actually that bad in the course of a season the teams that belong in that elite category shift for periods of time so its hard to keep your category straight. Its really not an issue of dogs or favorites its keeping track of current form and situation and looking at how much the bets cost compared to reward. The big edge in baseball is that the lines they put up are frequently very unrealistic which you can feed off of if you keep your eyes open. Whitesoxs and Mets both had been going bad but were playing teams and pitchers that were really struggling. An enterprising minus 2.5 betting on an aroused home favorite would have made big money. Not saying it was clear action but long term I think actions like that are a lot more likely to make you money than laying against teams that are going well. Hope this was helpful and that you start a big winning streak.
Satyr
Paster of Muppets
Tuck, thanks for the comments. I will definitely think about what you said.
I think that would explain tonight, as you said. All these 3 bets have different angles as well. I was counting on (except from what I've already explained in my opening post):
1)Cleveland's 7-9 in June, to prolong their downtrend, the Phillies hit Lee, Hamels doesn't have a complete meltdown. None of the above happened. Phillies scored ONE run, Hamels as I said after inning one, completely fell apart, and Indians scored 10.
2)St Louis: revenge spot, they're coming back home (I knew they were coming off an emotional series against the A's since La Russa used to coach there and it certainly is important for them to beat them, but how many times this year was a team coming from an "emotional series" and kept on winning? countless times. I looked at the pros and cons, and to me the pros outweighed the cons in this situation. And the pros were: Odalis Perez is a gas can, Kansas on the road, St Louis hitting like crazy, would've SWEPT the A's had it not been for their surge in Game 1 (totally untypical of the A's)
Well I thought STL will step up.
3)As far as Houston is concerned, I explained that one as well. Of course turned out to be wrong, but hey 10:9.
Anyways, I thought (and still think, time will tell whether it was a good call or not) that Houston's run was a bit bogus. Seattle is in a complete mess right now, and sweeping a team whose pitching has deteriorated (look at Baek and Washburn for example) and who are hitting .190 in last 6 or 7 games isn't much of an accomplishment.
They caught them offguard. I don't get people who say "Seattle were rocking before their trip to Houston": no they weren't. They started to go on a decline earlier.
But anyways. All I'm doing is, trying to mix favorites with valuable dogs. And so far it was a good mix. Now it's not any more.
However, I have to admit this is only my 3rd season betting on MLB, 4th year following it. As opposed to the NBA, I've been watching hoops since I was a 10 year old kid.
It's no wonder I have no full understanding of baseball, if you asked me 5 years ago what a strikeout was, and who Roger Clemens was, I wouldn't have known.
That's probably the answer why this would never happen in the NBA. Because I obviously have a partially false perception of the teams, of the sport, etc...
That's why I let others influence me, and I've seen A LOT of guys who are MLB betting veterans on the Cards and the Angels.
I didn't simply tail, but the fact some experienced punters were on those bets affected my thinking as well.
Anyways, this shows I'm nowhere near some of you guys here. Guys like DaBestBody4Life, Hile79, you Tuck, Unicorn, Fondy, ReNew, Green, and others I can't remember at the moment...
These guys really know baseball. I'm seriously considering of calling it quits in a few days, if this keeps going bad.
Anyways, thanks for the comment Tuck, it's highly appreciated. :shake:
I think that would explain tonight, as you said. All these 3 bets have different angles as well. I was counting on (except from what I've already explained in my opening post):
1)Cleveland's 7-9 in June, to prolong their downtrend, the Phillies hit Lee, Hamels doesn't have a complete meltdown. None of the above happened. Phillies scored ONE run, Hamels as I said after inning one, completely fell apart, and Indians scored 10.
2)St Louis: revenge spot, they're coming back home (I knew they were coming off an emotional series against the A's since La Russa used to coach there and it certainly is important for them to beat them, but how many times this year was a team coming from an "emotional series" and kept on winning? countless times. I looked at the pros and cons, and to me the pros outweighed the cons in this situation. And the pros were: Odalis Perez is a gas can, Kansas on the road, St Louis hitting like crazy, would've SWEPT the A's had it not been for their surge in Game 1 (totally untypical of the A's)
Well I thought STL will step up.
3)As far as Houston is concerned, I explained that one as well. Of course turned out to be wrong, but hey 10:9.
Anyways, I thought (and still think, time will tell whether it was a good call or not) that Houston's run was a bit bogus. Seattle is in a complete mess right now, and sweeping a team whose pitching has deteriorated (look at Baek and Washburn for example) and who are hitting .190 in last 6 or 7 games isn't much of an accomplishment.
They caught them offguard. I don't get people who say "Seattle were rocking before their trip to Houston": no they weren't. They started to go on a decline earlier.
But anyways. All I'm doing is, trying to mix favorites with valuable dogs. And so far it was a good mix. Now it's not any more.
However, I have to admit this is only my 3rd season betting on MLB, 4th year following it. As opposed to the NBA, I've been watching hoops since I was a 10 year old kid.
It's no wonder I have no full understanding of baseball, if you asked me 5 years ago what a strikeout was, and who Roger Clemens was, I wouldn't have known.
That's probably the answer why this would never happen in the NBA. Because I obviously have a partially false perception of the teams, of the sport, etc...
That's why I let others influence me, and I've seen A LOT of guys who are MLB betting veterans on the Cards and the Angels.
I didn't simply tail, but the fact some experienced punters were on those bets affected my thinking as well.
Anyways, this shows I'm nowhere near some of you guys here. Guys like DaBestBody4Life, Hile79, you Tuck, Unicorn, Fondy, ReNew, Green, and others I can't remember at the moment...
These guys really know baseball. I'm seriously considering of calling it quits in a few days, if this keeps going bad.
Anyways, thanks for the comment Tuck, it's highly appreciated. :shake:
reNew Orleans
Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
it's a little easier to cap when you grow up with it... yea
wish I could cap european soccer but we don't get that on tv here cus americans dont know whats best for them :down:
you do have that my friend, and for that, you are better than us. lol :smiley_acbe:
wish I could cap european soccer but we don't get that on tv here cus americans dont know whats best for them :down:
you do have that my friend, and for that, you are better than us. lol :smiley_acbe:
reNew Orleans
Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
i think you should just wait out interleague and then start up again. probably would be the safest way to go.
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
Satyr - Enjoy your break and come back when you feel ready, I will prob be gone by then.
About two of the plays we had yesterday, I have been thinking about them as well, the Phillies and the Cards. We had two NL teams laying chalk vs. two AL teams. Do you have the interleague record right now for the AL vs. NL?
About two of the plays we had yesterday, I have been thinking about them as well, the Phillies and the Cards. We had two NL teams laying chalk vs. two AL teams. Do you have the interleague record right now for the AL vs. NL?
Satyr
Paster of Muppets
No, I can dig it out but I'm too down at the moment 
I will tell you the same thing I said after 1st inning in Cleveland-Philly game.
I took the wrong side.
But I won't and can't say I took the wrong side in STL. Laying chalk. Hm...you're not saying Odalis Perez should have been laying chalk to Pujols and co.?
Ok the rivalry is weird between two teams, but the thing is, I think the price was right and the pick was right. I can't cap Encarnacion's TWO DOUBLE PLAYS with bases loaded, I can't cap Pujols' 0-for-2 against a guy he's hit 5 homers off in 19 at bats (.684 BA), I can't cap this.
I also can't cap the Angels having 19 hits and winning by one. Barely winning actually. 19 hits and ZERO homers. How often do we see that?
I also have to say, I've rarely seen someone pull off something worse than I did in the past 15 days.
I will tell you the same thing I said after 1st inning in Cleveland-Philly game.
I took the wrong side.
But I won't and can't say I took the wrong side in STL. Laying chalk. Hm...you're not saying Odalis Perez should have been laying chalk to Pujols and co.?
Ok the rivalry is weird between two teams, but the thing is, I think the price was right and the pick was right. I can't cap Encarnacion's TWO DOUBLE PLAYS with bases loaded, I can't cap Pujols' 0-for-2 against a guy he's hit 5 homers off in 19 at bats (.684 BA), I can't cap this.
I also can't cap the Angels having 19 hits and winning by one. Barely winning actually. 19 hits and ZERO homers. How often do we see that?
I also have to say, I've rarely seen someone pull off something worse than I did in the past 15 days.
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
Well you have your points about St. Louie but I didn't bet Wainwright the previous time he faced the Royals and it never occured to me to check what the line was on the road. I am pretty sure it was Wainwright -110 and bet down to +100.. I paid -162 yesterday, if the Cards got 40 for homefield than there was an overlay of 12 yesterday without factoring the bet down. Something I should have known before the game, not saying it would have kept me off the game but that is something I do like to know, where pitchers have been priced at, especially facing a team for the 2nd time in a week. Going from a 1hitter to 5er is a pretty extreme turn around as well.
