MLB in August

byrd430

byrd430

Pretty much a regular
Want to start off by saying that I'm not, by any stretch, a professional capper. I gamble quite a bit however through the locals, but I wanted to start posting my plays for personal purposes. I wouldn't advise anybody to tail me. I read a post from someone saying that posts are made to offer differences of opinion, so maybe one of my posts will help somebody here. If they don't, then they don't. If they do, then at least I've done something good.

I didn't bet a single baseball game during the first half. I started after the all-star break, and for the month of July I was dipping in the negatives until a 0-7-1 day set me back pretty bad. I'll hopefully avoid more of those days...

July record: 22-32-1 (-8.3u)

All my plays will be for 1 unit (that is RISKING 1 unit) unless otherwise stated.


I realize that the day has come and gone, but I'd like to post my plays from August 1st and hope that I don't offend anybody by doing so. I just want to keep the entire month together.


August 1st plays:

Arizona-Texas UNDER 8.5 (WIN)
St. Louis-Pittsburgh OVER 8 (WIN)
Seattle -110 (LOSS) --- (WTF?!)
Chicago Cubs +130 (LOSS)
Toronto-L.A. Angels OVER 8.5 (WIN)

3-2 (+0.9U)


I'll return later for Aug. 2nd plays.
 
On the early game. Was tempted to go back to the well and grab the Cubs for the same price as yesterday, but I really liked them in Game One of the series but they lost and Dodgers 11-game win streak is enough to keep me off the play. Will kick myself if the Cubs come through...I like the pitching matchup.

Instead, I'll take:

Chicago Cubs/Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 9
 
Thanks, blood, and BOL to you as well.

Rest of the card:

Tampa Bay -150
Houston-Minnesota UNDER 8
St. Louis-Cincinnati OVER 8
Pittsburgh -1.5 (+130)

1/2 Unit Play:

Atlanta-Philadelphia UNDER 8.5
 
Not hitting my sides at all...Got lucky on the Dodgers Under, Houston bullpen made me sweat out their under, St. Louie took their game over pretty quickly. Still a winning day so you won't hear me complain.

Last night: 3-3 (+.2U)
August: 6-5 (+1.1U)


Not in love with today's card, but I'm taking a stab at it...

Seattle-Baltimore OVER 9................1/1.8
St. Louis-Cincinnati UNDER 8............1/1.9
NY Yankees-San Diego OVER 7..........1/1.8
Los Angeles Angels -1.5...................1/2.2


Half-Unit Plays

Texas +100.................................. .5/1
Atlanta-Philadelphia OVER 9........... .5/.9
 
Had a lean, see a couple other people on it, so I'm going to go ahead and play it for a half unit...

LA Dodgers-Chicago Cubs OVER 7.5.............. .5/.9
 
2-4-1 last night, lost a full unit. 8-9-1 on the month, +.1 units.

Today:

Detroit -1.5........ 1/1.9


Will add more in a few minutes after I finalize some plays.
 
Rest of the day:

Washington-Milwaukee UNDER 8................... 1/1.9
LA Dodgers -120......................................... 1/1.8
Toronto-LA Angels UNDER 8......................... 1/1.9
NY Yankees -110........................................ 1/1.9
 
Thanx Blood.


Ate it this weekend, especially Sunday as I just got clobbered on almost every game. Looked like a majority of my leans came through, but my wagers didn't as I fell to 1-4 for the day, down 3.2 units. That puts my August record at:

9-13-1 (-3.1U)


Eating a lot of chalk today...

Detroit -115....................1/1.8
Kansas City -165..............1/1.6
Seattle -135.....................1/1.7
St. Louis -145...................1/1.6
Atlanta -105.....................1/1.9

Half Unit Play:

LA Angels -110.................. .5/.9
 
Last Night: 3-3 (-0.2U)
August: 12-16-1 (-3.4U)

Ugh, I really could use a good night to turn this around...


August 6th Plays:

Miami-Pittsburgh UNDER 7 (1/1.9)
Cincinnati -155 (1/1.6)
Colorado-NY Mets UNDER 7.5 (1/1.8)
NY Yankees-Chicago White Sox UNDER 6.5 (1/2)
St. Louis +140 (1/2.4)
Baltimore -140 (1/1.7)
Seattle -1.5 (1/2.1)
Texas-LA Angels UNDER 7 (1/2)


Few Notes:
* I really could've bet every single game on the slate Under tonight. Lots of quality pitchers, porous offenses, and Under teams cashing in lately.

* Not in love with the Cards tonight, especially against Kershaw, but I think StL is the team to end the Dodgers streak. If the Cards fail tonight, I'm doubling up on them tomorrow.


**EDIT FOR ADDITIONAL NOTE**

*Am going to keep track of a FADE record where I basically put the same amt. of units on the opposite play. Just curious to see how it turns out...
 
Thanks, blood. You're like the old man greeter at Wal-Mart, always popping in to wish me a good shopping experience, lol!

It was a pretty good night overall: 5-2-1 (+2.5U)
August Record: 17-18-2 (-0.9U)

FADE record (since Aug 6): 2-5-1 (-3.5U)


Totally slipped my mind that the Reds/A's game was playing so early today so I couldn't get any action on them. Balls! Anywho, looking at the other two day games, I'm prepared to hit:

Toronto-Seattle OVER 8.5.................1/1.9
San Diego Padres +1.5 RL..................1/1.6


Be back shortly with more.
 
The Over cashes in easily, but still need a couple from the Padres to cover that one...

Rest of the Card:

Colorado +1.5 (1/1.6)
Tampa Bay -135 (1/1.7)
LA Dodgers-St. Louis UNDER 7.5 (1/1.9)
Houston-Boston OVER 8.5 (1/1.8)

Half Unit Plays
Houston +1.5 (.5/.9)
Minnesota +125 (.5/1.1)
 
Barely got the play in on the

NY Mets -160 1/1.6


Record for yesterday: Got smoked, 2-6 for -3.6U
Monthly Record: Getting smoked, 19-24-1 -4.5U

Fade Record (since Aug. 6): (-1.5U)
 
Good for me, the Mets came through. Let's hope I can get something going on the three night games, eh?

Detroit-Cleveland UNDER 7.5 (1/1.9)
Kansas City +1.5 (1/1.6)

Half-Unit Play:
LA Dodgers-St.Louis OVER 8 (.5/1)

Notes:

*Scherzer the main reason for the under play as Clevelanders have not hit well against him. Scherzer's last 2 games were brilliant, but let's not get carried away - they came against the Phils and White Sox. Still, Indians batters have 210 at-bats against the ace and are batting just .210 against him. On the flip side, McAllister has pitched well enough against the Tigers that I believe we'll see a small score here, not to mention they played an extra half a game last night. Looking for tired bats tonight. Almost a play on Detroit as well, but I'm rooting for the Tribe to get at least one win here.

*KC - I hated taking the runline on this one and would much rather have taken the ML but my local didn't offer it. I am at least a little worried about this play, especially when KC playing against a left-hander pitcher who stats suggest is due for a good start. Chen, however, is a winning pitcher and with Boston having a hard fought series in Houston and traveling overnight to KC, I think it just puts the Sox in a bad spot. Looking for Chen and Royals bats to at least keep this one close. Both pitchers pitched against each other last season with Chen winning at home 4-3 and Lester winning at home, 4-3.

*I don't feel great about taking the Dodgers-Cards OVER the total, but I have a rule that if the total is under half of what the teams scored the previous night, I always bet the OVER. Ergo, the Cards-Doyers scored 17 last night. The total is set at 8 (or less than half of 17). I bet the Over. Instead of putting a full unit on it, I'll just take my chances with a half unit play (which by the way have been crushing me this year...).
 
Thanks, Trey. Would've been a profitable night if my FRICKIN LOCALS would've given me a moneyline on KC. I gave 'em an earful today, and I don't think that'll be a problem anymore, lol.

Went 2-2 last night as Detroit carried the total over by themselves by the 4th inning and the Cards failed to put up anything to even make it interesting. Only down .3 Units, but still needing some profitable days if I want to bounce back. This has been one of my worst years in baseball since I began, as I'm not having very many big profit days, and all my small profit days are getting smashed by big losing days. Starting to get discouraged, but I love gambling, and I'll keep at it.

August Record: 21-26-2 (-4.8U)
Fade Record (since Aug. 6): -2.2U <----jeezus, I can't even profit if I fade myself?

8/9 Plays:

Philadelphia +1.5 (1/1.7)
Cleveland -110 (1/1.9)
Indians-Angels UNDER 7.5 (1/1.9)
Athletics-Blue Jays OVER 9 (1/1.8)
Cubs-Cardinals OVER 8 (1/1.9)
Pirates-Rockies UNDER 8.5 (1/2)
Arizona -1.5 (1/2)

*Notes:

*Had leans on the Fish RL and the A's but ultimately laid off.

*I like Lannan against his former team. He always seems to pitch well against them. I considered the ML, but I can also see the Nats winning a 1-run game, so I'll try to cover my bases there.

*Indians play is backed by Cleveland coming back home needing to make up some ground after a disappointing series in Detroit. They play better at home for one, and there's a post in the main thread about Weaver that backed this play as well. Angels coming off a disappointing series themselves, so I'll give in to the home team.

*Regardless of Weaver's stats, he's still Weaver, and Kazmir has been pitching his best ball in quite a while. I don't think the Angels will score much, and I doubt Weaver will get blitzed here, just allow enough to lose. Winner scores 4 runs max IMO.

*The Oakland total kind of scares me but I'm fading both pitchers here. Most of the games in this series tend to go over the total, and the last two have stayed under.

*Hoping the Cards bats erupt tonight after a tough series against LAD. Lynn may not give up too many runs, but I'm hoping the Cubbies can score at least 2 and let the Cards take care of the rest.

*De La Rosa has struggled in his last 2, but I think he'll right the ship today at home where he's 6-1 with a 2.65 ERA. Liriano meanwhile deserves to be mentioned in the Cy Young race with overall numbers of 12-4 and a 2.02 ERA and he is crushing left-handed batters so far this year.
 
Tuck had a nice find on Arroyo, so I'm going to take a chance with him.

Reds-Padres UNDER 8.5 (1/1.9)
 
Pounded again. 2-6 last night, -4.1 Units. Total August record of 23-32-2 for -8.9U.
My FADE record if finally pushing into the positives however, up .4U since Aug. 6th.


Only early play, I'm going back to the well again as well as following one of my own rules. Ump looks good for me in this spot too, so unless Buehrle throws a gem, I think I'll be okay...

A's-Jays OVER 9 (1/1.8)
 
Taking Some Shots on the Afternoon Games:

Orioles-Giants UNDER 7 (1/1.9)
Orioles -125 (1/1.8)
Dodgers -150 (1/1.6)
Twins-White Sox UNDER 8.5 (1/1.8)
 
Jays Total Pushes, Twins Total Bites me in the ass, O's-Giants still have a chance, and Dodgers looking good atm.

Few more for the night, just because I feel like blowing money I guess?

Padres-Reds UNDER 8 (1/1.8)
Red Sox-Royals UNDER 8.5 (1/1.8)
Mets-Diamondbacks UNDER 8 (1/2.1)

Half-Unit Plays: (Feel free to fade these...I haven't hit a half unit play in ages!)
Indians -110 (.5/.9)
Brewers-Mariners OVER 7.5 (.5/1)
Rangers-Astros UNDER 8.5 (.5/.9)
 
Took the day off yesterday for personal reasons. Can't really cap games very well when I'm pissed off, so rather than bet foolishly, I decided to save my money.

6-4-1 on Saturday plays for 1.7 units of profit, but still got a ways to go to get back on the positive side for the month.
29-36-3 for -7.2 Units for August.


Looking things over today, and everything I like comes with a hefty price tag to it. Debating whether I want to lay such heavy chalk on teams like the Rox, Dodgers, Braves, and even the Reds. Only one play for me so far:

Twins-Indians UNDER 8 (1/1.9)
 
2-0 last night, hit both unders with EASE.

August record: 31-36-3 for -5.5U


8/13 Plays: I don't really know what the hell I'm doing today...

Washington -130 (1/1.7)
Nationals-Giants UNDER 6.5 (1/2)
Atlanta RL -1.5 (1/1.8)
Kansas City -136 (1/1.7)
Minnesota -120 (1/1.8)
Pittsburgh RL +1.5 (1/1.7)
Rockies-Padres UNDER 10 (1/1.9)
LA Dodgers -120 (1/1.8)
Astros-Athletics OVER 7.5 (1/1.8)
 
I may not have had an idea what I was doing yesterday, but I still profited. Works for me. :)

6-3 (+1.8U)
August Record: 37-39-3 (-3.7U)


8/14 Plays:

Rangers-Brewers UNDER 8.5 (1/1.9)
Tampa Bay RL -1.5 (1/1.7)
Giants-Nationals UNDER 7 (1/2)
Houston RL +1.5 (1/2)
Astros-Athletics UNDER 7.5 (1/1.8)
Yankees -120 (1/1.8)


Thoughts:

Texas is just an Under team this year and they've got their second ace on the mound tonight. Garza got knocked around a bit last time out, but I think he can tame this Brew Crew lineup pretty easily. Thornburg, meanwhile, has been pretty good himself, giving up 1 run in his last 13 innings, and 0 in 18 road innings this year.


I was worried about making a bet on the Rays RL considering they are struggling right now, but M's are 0-3 against the RL as a >+200 dog.


I'll continue to jump on the G-Men Unders until something changes. Lincecum has been getting back to form lately, and the offense won't get much off Zimmerman esp. if Posey continues to struggle.


Cosart has been a tough pitcher to go against for the Stros. In his last 3 starts, his team lost by 2, 1, and 1, and Cosart himself is 1-0 with a whole bunch of ND's. I expect him to keep this one close and hope the bp doesn't blow it too bad.

Riding against the trend on the A's-Stros Under. I believe 9 of last 13 games in this series has gone over, and both teams in particular have been on over streaks in the last few games. Even when Cosart and Parker faced off earlier this season, the game went over (5-4 A's win). All the numbers say over... But I'm playing this one off my gut (which kills me sometimes.)

Yanks - Simply playing the hot team vs. the slumping team.
 
3-3 Last night as the Astros game saved my ass. -.4U for the evening.

Early games today:

Angels-Yankees OVER 8.5 (1/1.9)
Giants-Nationals UNDER 8.5 (1/1.9)
 
Thanks TD.

Cashed in the Yanks total and Nats total looks good, barring a major collapse. I've got quite a few I like for tonight, but I think I'll just stay in the positives and only play one.

Reds-Brewers UNDER 7.5 (1/1.9)


FWIW, I like the Tigers Under, Twins Under, White Sox +, Rays Over.
 
Early game play:

Boston-NY Yankees UNDER 8.5 (1/1.8)

Ump is 9-15 O/U this year, but more importantly is the eye-popping stats from the SP. Kuroda is 4-18 O/U and 1-11 O/U in road starts. Lackey is 3-17 O/U and 1-6 O/U in home starts. I'm a bit worried that Yanks can hit Lackey today who has a 4.05 ERA in his last 3, but too many numbers point to the under in this game.

Also, canceled the NYY lean. Boston 4-0 after 3 straight losses this season.


St. Louis-Chicago Cubs OVER 8 (1/2)

Kind of a tail play. Wood has pitched to 4 straight unders, but that also came against Latos (CIN), Hamels (PHI), Ryu (LAD), and Lincecum (SF). Wood is 4-1 O/U vs. St. Louie the since '11. Kelly has 1 start against the Cubs, but that game also went over. Decent ump behind the plate (13-12 O/U). I'll take the chance.
 
Last edited:
Was leanin the Yanks also but still might play em with Kuroda on the hill and the hot offense. GL today Byrd :thumbsup2:
 
byrd430 said:
Early game play:

Boston-NY Yankees UNDER 8.5 (1/1.8)

Ump is 9-15 O/U this year, but more importantly is the eye-popping stats from the SP. Kuroda is 4-18 O/U and 1-11 O/U in road starts. Lackey is 3-17 O/U and 1-6 O/U in home starts. I'm a bit worried that Yanks can hit Lackey today who has a 4.05 ERA in his last 3, but too many numbers point to the under in this game.

Also, canceled the NYY lean. Boston 4-0 after 3 straight losses this season.


St. Louis-Chicago Cubs OVER 8 (1/2)

Kind of a tail play. Wood has pitched to 4 straight unders, but that also came against Latos (CIN), Hamels (PHI), Ryu (LAD), and Lincecum (SF). Wood is 4-1 O/U vs. St. Louie the since '11. Kelly has 1 start against the Cubs, but that game also went over. Decent ump behind the plate (13-12 O/U). I'll take the chance.
Click to expand...

like them both

GL byrd
 
BOL Trey if you do play them. I still lean Yanks FWIW.

Thanks Blood. Always good to see us on the same side.
 
Screw it, I got my 'Boys preseason football game coming up and UFC later tonight, so just went ahead and locked in these plays.

Braves -120 (1/1.8)
Rays-Jays OVER 8.5 (1/1.8)
Twins-White Sox UNDER 7 (1/1.8)
Marlins +110 (1/2.1)
Rangers-Mariners UNDER 8 (1/1.9)
Astros-Angels OVER 8 (1/1.8)

Half-Unit Sys. Play:

Giants-Marlins OVER 7 (.5/.9)
 
My apologies for not being on site lately. Really between trying to make some money (ya know..the "honest" way) and trying to build up a bankroll for college football, I just had to leave things alone for a little bit.

After a nice run, I took a beating the last time out - 3-6 for -4U, which brought my August record to:

46-48-3 for -5.4U

My fade record still looks worse at -7.9U. (Jeez, how did that happen?)


Anyways, I'm back especially now that football season is in t-minus 1 hour, 40 minutes. :)
I missed out on the early plays today (aw shucks), but here's a three pack for the evening.

August 29th Plays:

Atlanta-Cleveland UNDER 8 (1/1.8)
Seattle-Houston OVER 9 (1/2)
Nationals -1.5 RL (1/2)
 
2-1 yesterday for +.8U.

About an hour left before the evening's opening games, and they're not much on the plate that I feel comfortable betting on. Still looking things over and may play a couple half-unit plays just to get some action, or I may just sit the night out. Still debating.
 
Meh, not playing any NCAAF tonight, so I gotta get something on the board...

Half-Unit Plays:

St. Louis +100 (.5/1)
Braves-Marlins UNDER 6.5 (.5/.9)
Atlanta -140 (.5/.8)
Reds-Rockies UNDER 9.5 (.5/.9)
Arizona -120 (.5/.9)

Got my eye on the Stros/M's game. Won't play it, but got a hypothetical wager on M's and Under.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

mrpickem
MLB in July ⚾
2
Replies
77
Views
2K
mrpickem
mrpickem
Wiretowire
MLB Monday 6/3
Replies
12
Views
249
Wiretowire
Wiretowire
Wiretowire
MLB Saturday 7/13
Replies
5
Views
122
Wiretowire
Wiretowire
P
Monday April 22nd-Tuesday April 30th MLB Picks
2 3
Replies
107
Views
4K
wiseplayer
wiseplayer
Wiretowire
MLB Friday 5/17
Replies
8
Views
211
Wiretowire
Wiretowire
Back
Top