MLB Discussion for the Week of 5/16/2016

Niese has had 5 days rest, 5 days rest and now 6 days rest
Last year on 6 he had a 2.13 ERA based on 38 innings
 
Perez and Atlanta are very confusing but if he has Pierzynski catching on a short game sample he is dangerous with a 1.12 ERA based on 8 innings
 
Don't really see anything I like today. Could see Boston finally having a letdown now that they're on the road but I'm not getting on that
 
this is Porcello on 4 days 4-0 2.00 ERA playing on the road in May. That would be 14-5 on the road in May. KC is 0-4 on Monday this season. Ventura is also on best rest but has a 5.40 night ERA
 
tuck321 said:
Perez and Atlanta are very confusing but if he has Pierzynski catching on a short game sample he is dangerous with a 1.12 ERA based on 8 innings
Click to expand...

How can someone be dangerous on an 8 inning sample? Seems far more dangerous to draw any sort of conclusion from such a sample.

Kc game not looking like it will play, rain all day and night there from what I can tell.
 
If it werent for injuries, matt shoemaker would be in AAA by now. take advantage of the fact that due to the situation, they are still throwing him out there and we get to fade him. Dodger TT over and Dodgers RL. Seriously, this guy throws junk worse that the stuff I faced in high school. May be the most hittalbe pitcher in the game.
 
triceratops said:
How can someone be dangerous on an 8 inning sample? Seems far more dangerous to draw any sort of conclusion from such a sample.

Kc game not looking like it will play, rain all day and night there from what I can tell.
Click to expand...

making any sort of assessment after 8 innings is foolish, imo. but thats what these discussiosn are for...some ppl have different views on small sample sizes, day stats, etc. were all after the loot.
 
D-Woww said:
making any sort of assessment after 8 innings is foolish, imo. but thats what these discussiosn are for...some ppl have different views on small sample sizes, day stats, etc. were all after the loot.
Click to expand...
Translation: some people grasp at straws. Personally I don't care if they want to bet their money based on such but to post it here like it is in any way relevant does everyone who reads it a disservice.
 
I guess I am a minority. You have a pitcher who has pitched poorly with his regular catcher. He gets innings with someone else and pitches massively better and drawing a conclusion that he is likely to pitch better with number 2 is OUT OF LINE. Very interesting conclusion.
 
tuck321 said:
I guess I am a minority. You have a pitcher who has pitched poorly with his regular catcher. He gets innings with someone else and pitches massively better and drawing a conclusion that he is likely to pitch better with number 2 is OUT OF LINE. Very interesting conclusion.
Click to expand...

its not that the conclusion is out of line at all. heck, tons of pitchers have personal catchers who arent usually the starter but always start for them. all we are saying is you can't draw that conclusion after 8 innings. now if in august he has 50 innings with AJ and his ERA is still significantly better with him, then you can start drawing conclusions. but over 8 innings, the casue for his success could be anything from weak lineups faced to dumb luck
 
edou1x said:
like PIT1St5 ML, KC ML and TEX-OAK O 1St5
Click to expand...

Why KC? After a 13 inning game where their starter went 3 innings. Alexander tossed 39 pitches the other 7 took lesser hits and the last memory of Boston is Ventura beating them in Boston. Boston by the way is 4-2 away in first game of a road series
 
D-Woww said:
its not that the conclusion is out of line at all. heck, tons of pitchers have personal catchers who arent usually the starter but always start for them. all we are saying is you can't draw that conclusion after 8 innings. now if in august he has 50 innings with AJ and his ERA is still significantly better with him, then you can start drawing conclusions. but over 8 innings, the casue for his success could be anything from weak lineups faced to dumb luck
Click to expand...
Wait for August and a 50 inning sample. Sorry but I think the stylistic difference here will not go away
 
tuck321 said:
I guess I am a minority. You have a pitcher who has pitched poorly with his regular catcher. He gets innings with someone else and pitches massively better and drawing a conclusion that he is likely to pitch better with number 2 is OUT OF LINE. Very interesting conclusion.
Click to expand...

You also didn't specify this 8 inning sample only applies to 2016 and vs the Phillies one game. He was with pierzynski plenty last year including a start vs Philly where he and aj gave up 8 runs in 4 innings. This is all likely a moot point as they are facing niese and flowers will likely start vs the righty.
 
triceratops said:
You also didn't specify this 8 inning sample only applies to 2016 and vs the Phillies one game. He was with pierzynski plenty last year including a start vs Philly where he and aj gave up 8 runs in 4 innings. This is all likely a moot point as they are facing niese and flowers will likely start vs the righty.
Click to expand...

Exactly. It's easy to find reasons to bet, and stats that may back that bet up, when you selectively look at the stats and use sample sizes of 8 innings.
 
tuck321 said:
I guess I am a minority. You have a pitcher who has pitched poorly with his regular catcher. He gets innings with someone else and pitches massively better and drawing a conclusion that he is likely to pitch better with number 2 is OUT OF LINE. Very interesting conclusion.
Click to expand...
SMH...

2015

By Catcher

Direct Link · Glossary · SHARE · Embed · CSV · Export · PRE · LINK · ?

[TABLE="class: sortable stats_table"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="class: tooltip sort_default_asc, align: left"]Split[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]G[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]IP[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]ER[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals, align: center"]ERA[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]PA[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]AB[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]R[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]H[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]2B[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]3B[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]HR[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]SB[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]CS[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]BB[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]SO[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center"]SO/W[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center"]BA[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center"]OBP[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center"]SLG[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center"]OPS[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]TB[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]GDP[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]HBP[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]SH[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]SF[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]IBB[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]ROE[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center"]BAbip[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]tOPS+[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]sOPS+[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Christian Bethancourt[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 27.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 4.61[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]123[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]107[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]32[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]20[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.67[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].299[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].369[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].421[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].789[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]45[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].337[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]96[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]107[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan Lavarnway[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 10.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 5.91[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]51[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]44[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].318[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].412[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].386[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].798[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].350[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]99[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]117[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]A.J. Pierzynski[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 78.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]41[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 4.69[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]340[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]295[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]39[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]84[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]35[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]49[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.40[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].285[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].367[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].451[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].818[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]133[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].310[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]102[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]112[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
2016

By Catcher

Direct Link · Glossary · SHARE · Embed · CSV · Export · PRE · LINK · ?

[TABLE="class: sortable stats_table"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="class: tooltip sort_default_asc, align: left"]Split[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]G[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]IP[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]ER[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals, align: center"]ERA[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]PA[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]AB[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]R[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]H[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]2B[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]3B[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]HR[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]SB[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]CS[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]BB[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]SO[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center"]SO/W[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center"]BA[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center"]OBP[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center"]SLG[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center"]OPS[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]TB[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]GDP[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]HBP[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]SH[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]SF[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]IBB[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]ROE[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center"]BAbip[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]tOPS+[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]sOPS+[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tyler Flowers[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 12.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 5.11[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]58[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]46[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.75[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].283[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].400[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].413[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].813[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]19[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].308[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]156[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]111[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]A.J. Pierzynski[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 8.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 1.12[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]25[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]25[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].080[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].080[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].200[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].280[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].050[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-14[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-22[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 
I read an article on Robbie Ray last week in which the author stated that "yes, it's true sample size is an issue at this point." That seems like an appropriate response to people.
 
The information in the Toronto game is a little vague. Smly seems to be playing on slightly worst rest but Happ worries me more. Happ did not pitch a complete game shut out. He did go 8 with a 111 pitches giving up 0 and looking at his game logs last 2 years that worries me a lot. Just an avoid here
 
Through seven starts at Triple-A, Green dominated right-handed hitters (.159 opponent batting average) but allowed lefties to tattoo him (.319 opponent batting average). Arizona third baseman Jake Lamb (.830 OPS) is the lefty slugger that Green must be careful with on Monday night.
 
Under texas
under dogers

its 50/50 wasting your time capping to long goodluck
 
Lol i decided to hold some of his latest bets now im getting hammered lol over tampa toronto the kid is on a roll unlike any i have ever seen
 
Lol zimmerman didnt even matter they hit the over inn the first inning detroit
 
Goodluck hae didnt bet that game suprised he even noticed green didnt have any starts lol
 
Roof closed but you get cb

what would you rather have?

Roof open eddings lol
 
it's hard to cap based on run support but one of Ray's downfalls has been run support. Ray gives up a shitload of runs but is only 9-20-1 O/U with the D-Backs due to the lack of runs
 
just an fyi, the roof is open at Chase. directv is showing a "rain" delay but the delay is actually due to an on-field ceremony. roof is open
 
nbafan88 said:
Through seven starts at Triple-A, Green dominated right-handed hitters (.159 opponent batting average) but allowed lefties to tattoo him (.319 opponent batting average). Arizona third baseman Jake Lamb (.830 OPS) is the lefty slugger that Green must be careful with on Monday night.
Click to expand...

Lamb 3-for-3 with a bomb and a double in the fifth, nice crystal ball, nba.
 
Lol tip that was a copy paste. But glad it panned out. Need one more run. Was looking for over/under props for Lamb but couldn't find any. Green is very unfortunate to draw CB for his first start.
 
And he's very fortunate the Snakes have no left handed bats. Except Lamb. Almost woulda expected him to be pitched around with the way the lineup stacks up.
 
Thanks. Just gotta stay disciplined and not force anything. Playing a lot of sides in bases in the past has really made me get overloaded and drained. Totals just make so much more sense to me and the juice is basically nothing.
 
Finally this guy gets a loss

oak tex under he wins easy

angels get two huge innings to push this over

sheesh probably not holding anymore of these just figured the guy had to stop winning up over 38k now sick run
 
Early leans

Daniel Murphy prop overs. He's gonna demolish the mets this series.
White Sox over
Diamondbacks over
 
Ausmus' tirade yesterday was hilarious. Lit a fire under the team.

Phil Hughes sucks right now. 0 confidence. Pelfrey has sucked as well but the confidence is still there judging by his quotes. I also learned last start that pelfrey is getting more ground balls this year than years past. His results should be better than he has pitched.

Will definitely be on the Tigers TT over. The team needs to get on a roll so I don't see a letdown. Full game over isn't a bad idea either. The Tigers bullpen should help as usual
 
tuck321 said:
Why KC? After a 13 inning game where their starter went 3 innings. Alexander tossed 39 pitches the other 7 took lesser hits and the last memory of Boston is Ventura beating them in Boston. Boston by the way is 4-2 away in first game of a road series
Click to expand...

because,
12-0 (3.42, 100.0%) avg line: -127.0 / 115.5 on / against: +$1,227 / -$1,257 ROI: +77.0% / -100.0%
11-1 (2.67, 91.7%) avg line: 129.4 / -142.8 on / against: +$1,483 / -$1,596 ROI: +109.7% / -87.3%
4-7-1 (-0.21, 36.4%) avg total: 7.5 over / under: -$365 / +$275 ROI: -27.4% / +21.0%

<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]SU:[/TH]

[TH="align: center"]RL:[/TH]

[TH="align: center"]OU:[/TH]

</tbody>
5.310.20.52.45.89.25.56.6
1.95.60.73.28.89.54.16.8

<tbody>
[TH="align: center"][/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Runs[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Hits[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Errors[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Walks[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Strike Outs[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Ground Balls[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Fly Balls[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Team LOB[/TH]

[TH="align: center"]Team[/TH]

[TH="align: center"]Opp[/TH]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]starter = Yordano Ventura and H and s:SHA >= 6 and date >= 20140725[/TH]

</tbody>
porcello allowed 10 runs last 2 vs KC. BOS is due for a letdown soon offensively du to scoring 10+ runs in 5 of their last7
KC should not be underdog. they are underdog because of red sox hot run last 10 games
 
24-29 (-0.45, 45.3%) avg line: -160.2 / 145.8 on / against: -$2,142 / +$1,744 ROI: -25.3% / +32.9%
14-29 (-2.24, 32.6%) avg line: 145.2 / -160.1 on / against: -$877 / +$651 ROI: -19.9% / +9.4%
33-16-4 (1.91, 67.3%) avg total: 8.4 over / under: +$1,535 / -$2,035 ROI: +26.3% / -34.9%

<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]SU:[/TH]

[TH="align: center"]RL:[/TH]

[TH="align: center"]OU:[/TH]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]po:team = Dodgers and p:AW and HF[/TH]

</tbody>
clearly,after beating kershaw and co in LA you have a letdown. already like COL+180 today, but like it even more.

the more you stay in hollywood the tougher it is to come back home with a good jet lag for cardinals:
0-5 (-4.60, 0.0%) avg line: -129.7 / 119.7 on / against: -$623 / +$588 ROI: -100.0% / +109.9%
0-5 (-4.90, 0.0%) avg line: 115.7 / -128.8 on / against: -$620 / +$594 ROI: -100.0% / +82.2%
4-1-0 (1.90, 80.0%) avg total: 7.5 over / under: +$295 / -$350 ROI: +55.1% / -61.9%

<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]SU:[/TH]

[TH="align: center"]RL:[/TH]

[TH="align: center"]OU:[/TH]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]po:team = Dodgers and ppppo:team = Angels and H[/TH]

</tbody>
 
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