MLB Discussion Aug 29 ~ Can the Mets beat the Cubs?

Mets LH Jason Vargas (4-8, 6.96 ERA) vs. Cubs RH Alec Mills (0-0, 1.17)


Vargas has lowered his season ERA nearly two runs with three straight strong outings. The 35-year-old has allowed four runs over 17 1/3 innings across his last three starts and won the last two after holding Washington to three hits over six scoreless frames Friday. Vargas is 2-0 with a 4.35 ERA in five starts against the Cubs.


Mills earned another turn in the rotation with an outstanding effort in his first big-league start Friday against Cincinnati. The 26-year-old struck out eight and held the Reds to one run and three hits over 5 2/3 innings. Mills has 10 strikeouts and one walk over 7 2/3 innings in the majors this season.
 
mrpickem said:
Mets LH Jason Vargas (4-8, 6.96 ERA) vs. Cubs RH Alec Mills (0-0, 1.17)


Vargas has lowered his season ERA nearly two runs with three straight strong outings. The 35-year-old has allowed four runs over 17 1/3 innings across his last three starts and won the last two after holding Washington to three hits over six scoreless frames Friday. Vargas is 2-0 with a 4.35 ERA in five starts against the Cubs.


Mills earned another turn in the rotation with an outstanding effort in his first big-league start Friday against Cincinnati. The 26-year-old struck out eight and held the Reds to one run and three hits over 5 2/3 innings. Mills has 10 strikeouts and one walk over 7 2/3 innings in the majors this season.
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Maddon hinted at a really funky lineup today. Under is the only thing I could play. Not really because of the pitchers, but just all the other factors involved here.
 
yeppers, definitely looking at under..wind in from left, didn't even think could be less than top lineup..but thats even better
 
afternoon weather
82112c8c-e54a-47b2-b00e-f36dbb2f261c.png
 
cahill 10-21 in road day games alltime...won last 2 including at HOU but lost 15 of 16 before that

f8f4657b-addb-4bf5-8415-95e0c4b17132.png
 
CHC -1 -150...still pondering this one or under 8.5
mainly a fade of Vargas and the Cubs being the better team. Vargas has been absolutely terrible pitching away games, as well as day games and that makes it hard to take under with vargas era near 7 and 12.91 in day games

Min/Cle F5 over 5.5
Both pitchers have been giving up a lot of runs lately and both teams are better against righties

SF +112
Rodriguez has been fantastic at home this season and hasn't allowed a single Dbacks run this season in close to 30 AB's...really surprised getting plus money here

Phi -1 +116
Arietta is much better at home and night games, while Gio is much worse at night games. I also think the Phillies will bounce back tonight after a blown lead last night.Laying run for value, but playedboth ways w/M:

Hou -1 -110
Small play here backing one of the best teams in baseball going against a pitcher who has pitched extremely poorly on the road this season. I really like a's a lot, just not cahill
 
Pirates (T. Williams) at Cardinals (Mikolas):

In their last 7 starts:
Williams
6.0 IP, 1 ER
7.0 IP, 1 ER
7.0 IP, 0 ER
5.0 IP, 2 ER
6.0 IP, 0 ER
6.0 IP, 0 ER
5.0 IP, 0 ER

*splits vs Cards: 29-88, 13R, 12K
Mikolas
4.2 IP, 4 ER
6.0 IP, 1 ER
7.0 IP, 4 ER
7.0 IP, 2 ER
7.0 IP, 1 ER
6.0 IP, 2 ER
5.0 IP, 2 ER

*splits vs Pirates: 11-70, 8R, 14K

**In the last 14 games; Pirates average run scored/9 2.64 vs 3.14 against. Cardinals have scored on average 5.14 vs given up 3.42

***In last 14 games; pirates average run scored/first 5 is 1.14 vs. 2.21 against. Cardinals have scored on average 3.5 vs 1.28 against.

LEAN FIRST 5 UNDER
 
i like the Dereck Rodriguez idea, but Cahill is nasty and the line has dropped a quarter since last night when i went to sleep
 
Day game after a night game / getaway day / efficient pitchers + relatively in form bullpens / extremely meaningful game that could be tightly managed feels like an under in Houston. Also feels like too short a line and backwards movement to make sense fading Cahill on the road against the best team in baseball, just feels off.
 
Fulmer's pitch counts for High-A Lakeland rehab appearances:

1st outing: 18
2nd outing: 56

Tigers were shooting to keep Fulmer around 70 in his return vs CHW and he ended up tallying 77. I'd imagine he'll be stretched out to around 90 or so this afternoon. Fulmer's velocity is up a tick and he says this is the best he's felt in a long time coming off the oblique injury. His numbers during his rehab stint and given how sharp he was in his return seem to indicate that.
 
A little depressed. Houston has 1 major problem. Stupidity. Dallas much better with Mald as opposed to Stassi. The right catcher and I hit 2.5, Still should win with Cahills problems with the ump and himself but why is something always wrong
 
Still need to think about the Saint Louis situation. Pitt pitcher is loaded but another homer ump
 
tuck321 said:
A little depressed. Houston has 1 major problem. Stupidity. Dallas much better with Mald as opposed to Stassi. The right catcher and I hit 2.5, Still should win with Cahills problems with the ump and himself but why is something always wrong
Click to expand...

Because it's baseball. Anything can happen. But you already know this.
 
Maldonado been there for a month. Not nearly enough data to conclude Keuchel has pitched better because of him. Stassi the better overall player and Maldonado getting a break after a night game.
 
Fulmer should go 90-100 like grind said. Hit the tigers game and TT over 4 even pretty hard. I like our numbers against Duffy as we are very comfortable at Kauffman.
BOL all
 
For whatever it's worth.

My database has two Padres games this seasons with moves identical to today. They lost by three runs both games.

NEVERMIND, SCATCH THAT!!!!
 
Keuchel already throwing his arms up in the air on the 4th pitch being called a ball when the same pitch was called a strike on pitch 1. LOL.
 
mrpickem said:
afternoon weather
Click to expand...

Miss you posting this in the ump/weather thread, very important and helpful...always forget the site and often have to look last minute although the ramping down has begun tremendously...Sept callups in a couple days and I'll be nothing but discussion worthy at best. Lots and lots of bullpen innings upcoming.
 
I have a three teamer with Boston, Cleveland and St Louis and a four teamer with those same three teams and Baltimore.
 
raems said:
Maldonado been there for a month. Not nearly enough data to conclude Keuchel has pitched better because of him. Stassi the better overall player and Maldonado getting a break after a night game.
Click to expand...
I see a 1.93 ERA after 14 innings with one
3.39 ERA large sample with the other. What is the point of this kind of statement?
 
tuck321 said:
I see a 1.93 ERA after 14 innings with one
3.39 ERA large sample with the other. What is the point of this kind of statement?
Click to expand...

"Not nearly enough data to conclude Keuchel has pitched better because of him"

This was the point of raems statement, and it's a very valid point imo
 
CWS/NYY

Sabathia awful history with major over ump, Brian Knight, large sample, 28IP 5.72/1.51. Does not pitch well with Romine, 153IP 5.33ERA. Dominated the Sox in Chicago on 8/7 5.2ip 12K 1ER.

Lopez faced CC and the Yanks in Chicago on 8/7 went 7 innings gave up 1 run, striking out 6, walking 2. Shittier night and away has never pitched in NY. He's been up and down and all over the place in his starts, can't really read him. Has never seen umpire.

Sox bats are still feisty and probably pissed about giving away game last night.

All that said, it's still hard for me to take the over because I don't like either offense. Maybe I'm over thinking it.
 
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