Mlb 6/16

[slim5150]

Another solid day yesterday. All 3 losses were by 1 run. Like a broken record it seems. They all had opportunities to tie or take the lead in 8th or 9th but couldnt get those runners in.

Model says i should be taking colorado and boston. I may, although i have already lost a bit of juice by waiting as the lines were off from where i have them.

Too many unknowns in bos/sea tilt. How will team respond without devers bat in terms of run production. And how will gilbert respond coming back off IR. Giolito has had a couple poor poor showing lately. Need to dig around a little more.

Pretty funny situation when the rox are getting steamed down to only a 148 dog. Palmquist has been hittable, as has irvin. Rox have been turning men on base into runs at a better clip than than washington over the past week. Do the rox stay hot (that was hard to type) or do the nats wake up? Thats the question. Col bullpen has been pretty awful and palmquist has been hit from both sides of the plate home and away.

Just a couple to start. Prob be back with more.

Laa 162 bol
Oak 135 bol
Sdp 135 bol
Tb -103 bol

Yesterday 5-3 + 3.98
Ytd 98-114 +18.28 46% win rate 8.6% roi

 

[slim5150]

Got a good one before oak switched to spence from sears. Spence has much better splits against houstons expected lineup.

Not going to push it with much else. Philly and miami all rests on which alcantra you get. Hes had a couple decent starts lately, well decent for his current form, but those were against a run challenged pittsburgh team and colorado. His outs are at 17.5 -130 so the books are projecting him to maybe get through 6. A parlay of over 4.5ks and 1.5 walks pays 220 and looks tasty. May jump in there for some lunch money.

Colorado and wash would be wash or nothimg for me. Irvin is not a world beater, but his splits against rh batters is decent enough to neutralize those in the col lineup. Or at least limit them. Lefties are his weakness and col doesnt have many that can do sufficient damage. Palmquists aplits away from coors are equally depressing vs lefties and righties. Are we expecting the rox to continue in the form of the last couple games or would it be reasonable to expect wash to improve their offensive production. Im not getting enough on the rox and i sure aint gonna lay 160 or so on wash. Abrahms mignt be good for a hrr prop.

Too many questions on both sides for boston. Giolito is not trending in a good direction and how will boston offense respond to life after devers. Will gilbert return to sominant form. Who knows. Ill watch as a fan. Jp crawford mignt have a night and could be a good hrr candidate.

Gonna do something i dont normally do...not since a philly loser a while back. Going to lay money with the rays. They have really rounded into a good form lately and eflin, while is a good pitxher, has some weaknesses against lefties. Aranda, misner, lowe, lowe...could have good nights and get some hits (aranda and b.lowe moreso). Pepiot has favorable splits against the balt lineup that has recently awoken. But aginst whom? They swept the angels, won one against det, won 1 against oakland, and swept seattle. If you look at the run production of those teams at the time balt caught them all at the right time.

Other notes i jotted down about player props...gavin sheets, jacob wilson and nick kurtz are all worth a look.

Adding
Rays -103 bol