Mlb 4/28

[slim5150]

Last day of the 2 week trial. Some interesting observations have come up that i hope will bode well in the next run.

Todays plays all from Bol

Wash 139
Balt 113
Cin -116
Col 152
Mia 244
Tx -101
Det 109

Yesterday 2 -5 -3.11
Season 49 -65 -10.23 43% win rate
Yesterday oppo 5-2 +2.79
SEason oppo 65 -49 +6.08 57% win rate

I went and tracked the same systemic plays the model was picking, but looked at 1st 5 inning plays only. This way it eliminated bullpen and kept it based on starting pitcher

Season 39 -56 -19.56 41% win rate
Season oppo 56-39 +9.95 59% win rate

 

[slim5150]

Adding...both ftom bm

Tx -101
Det 109

 

[slim5150]

This test run comes to a close. Ive learned a good bit and am going to pit some actual money on the next series of plays. There will be 2 different looks. Basically the opposite of my original choices and the 1st 5 money line for each of those as well.

The goal was to try and find the best value...and the current iteration of plays qas way too heavy on favorites and big ml dogs. Those are great when they hit...but they are not hitting at a good enough clip to be profitable. Not being on the right side strained the profitability as well.

Yesterday 2 -5 -2.88
Season 51 -70. -13.11 42% win rate
YEsterday oppo 5-2 +2.76
Season oppo 70-51 +8.84. 58% win rate