I agree with your analysis as that was my initial review of the game last night.
Games with both pictures pitching:
Godley: Away: 8.73 runs per game / Day Games: 11.5 runs / L3: 6.0 runs
Chatwood: Home: 10.82 runs / Day Games: 10.4 runs / L3: 11.0 runs
The reason why I liked the under in this game, was I was assuming if the total was 10 or higher would signal an over call for me.
But, the fact that it opened at 9.5 and got worked to 9 earlier signals under to me.
Plus, mixed in with this is the umpire.. who's been 4-14 O/U with an average of 7.39 runs. And, his last 10 matches have gone 1-9 O/U with an average score of 3.3 - 3.8 = 7.1 runs per game..