MLB 1st 5 Innings

Mobile right now so not sure but i know they stated today will be fleming pitching a portion too

That what I hate bout openers. I expect to see 5-6 pitchers out of pen, in rays case that fine but most teams don’t have enough pen quality for that to work, then a team tricks me and brings a starter in after the 1st pen guy pitches a inning or 2 and he ends up giving them 4-5 innings which makes it more like a typical game.
 
MIN -0.5 -135 4.05-3

STL +0.5 -115 1.15-1
NYM TTO 2.5 -125 1.25-1
TEX TTU 1.5 -140 1.4-1


Lean laa, over in bal/det, under in nyy/tex

KC projected to trot out just 3 righties vs Mahle is a MISTAKE, plus Grienkes metrics are much worse than his ERA
 
I like the cardinals today also.

I dunno how the grienke has managed to get guys out throwing the junk he been reduced to the last several years?!? I do think he a guy I’d be scared of betting on regression to the advanced numbers cause he clearly knows how to pitch, doesn’t mean he won’t struggle at times with good lineups but I’d bet his surface numbers probably remain better than his metrics all season. Those advanced stats just don’t give guys enough credit for knowing how to pitch and ability to get outs with contact, values k’s way too much imo. I prefer charting pitchers stuff these days and judging them without results of a at bat at all! Of course grienke isn’t gonna impress anyone from a stuff standpoint either!! Lol
 
4-0 +6
43-24-2 +17.85 Total

CLV ML -140 2.8-2
CWS TTU 1.5 +105 2-2.1
LAA TT O2.5 +120 2-2.4

PHI/HOU U3.5 -105 1.05-1
STL/LAD O4.5 -120 1.2-1


very close to playing mia/chc under, or atleast mia under but passing for now, lean mets +.5, I really want to play yanks under 0.5, wish I could do a juiced 1.5 as insurance, but i'll just pass for now,

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Man, I lean opposite in the cardinals game. I just don’t see them scoring much off May, for whatever reason the offense which I thought be good been as garbage as the pitching! Flaherty all over the place but his last few been better, he has always pitched well when coming home to la, of course it fair to wonder if he that same guy anymore? But the pitcher friendly park and with dodgers not getting a day off coming home from out east I feel like this about as good a spot he have to succeed. Feel like both pitchers more than capable of holding these offenses to 2 runs each thru 5, at most!

I know May’s metrics havnt been good but I actually think I like him more now than years past as he now throwing a 4 seamer way more often than sinker. Theoretically that should lead to more swing and miss/strikeouts, certainly hasn’t been the case up to this point but I think it coming. Don’t see him regressing to the xfip, I see the k:bb improving a ton and his xfip dropping cause I prefer his new pitch mix. Maybe I’m way off, his swinging strike cut in half to a terrible 6%! It just doesn’t make sense to me, more 4seamsrs and less sinkers should = more swinging strikes. Not like he doesn’t have a good 4 seamer, it looks really good to me!!

I do like the cws tt under. I been debating between that and Efflin ov 4.5 k’s. Not a shock the Rays have taken efflin pitch mix and made it way more optimal! Why wouldn’t they? Everything rays do comes up roses!! How do you make a 29 year old perform better than ever before? Send him to rays and let their smart ppl tinker with his pitches and mix!!!! Chisox don’t hit rhp for shit, he should dominate them once again!!
 
Man, I lean opposite in the cardinals game. I just don’t see them scoring much off May, for whatever reason the offense which I thought be good been as garbage as the pitching! Flaherty all over the place but his last few been better, he has always pitched well when coming home to la, of course it fair to wonder if he that same guy anymore? But the pitcher friendly park and with dodgers not getting a day off coming home from out east I feel like this about as good a spot he have to succeed. Feel like both pitchers more than capable of holding these offenses to 2 runs each thru 5, at most!

I know May’s metrics havnt been good but I actually think I like him more now than years past as he now throwing a 4 seamer way more often than sinker. Theoretically that should lead to more swing and miss/strikeouts, certainly hasn’t been the case up to this point but I think it coming. Don’t see him regressing to the xfip, I see the k:bb improving a ton and his xfip dropping cause I prefer his new pitch mix. Maybe I’m way off, his swinging strike cut in half to a terrible 6%! It just doesn’t make sense to me, more 4seamsrs and less sinkers should = more swinging strikes. Not like he doesn’t have a good 4 seamer, it looks really good to me!!

I do like the cws tt under. I been debating between that and Efflin ov 4.5 k’s. Not a shock the Rays have taken efflin pitch mix and made it way more optimal! Why wouldn’t they? Everything rays do comes up roses!! How do you make a 29 year old perform better than ever before? Send him to rays and let their smart ppl tinker with his pitches and mix!!!! Chisox don’t hit rhp for shit, he should dominate them once again!!

I feel you on that, the stats I look at now cover 2022 through 23, at some point it'll just be 23, and maybe May's numbers will improve as the season progesses, but as of now I see 2 pitchers where their metrics are much worse than their ERA going against 2 offenses that are pretty good vs RHP (Btw the Cards offensive numbers vs lefties may be highest i've seen to date, but regardless, still good numbers vs righties).... just need 1 to get rocked, but could see both letting some go.

lmao on efflin, but ya I agree, he still may not be good vs lefties though, but CWS only rolling out with 3? none of which have power, and only 1 currently has a good wOBA
 
What cards hitting compared to their actual output just don’t jive. They put a few big games out there to skew numbers a bit but overall it really hard to trust them to actually score runs at the moment. It’s pretty frustrating.
 
3-2 +-0
46-26-2 +17.85 Total

CIN -0.5 -110 3.3-3

COL TT O3.5 +110 2-2.2

CHC/MIA O4.5 -120 1.2-1
PHI/HOU U3.5 -110 1.1-1
STL +0.5 -120 1.2-1


1682790374334.png
 
2-3 -4.5
48-29-2 +13.35 Total

BOS TT O2.5 +115 1-1.15
CIN TT U1.5 -120 1.2-1


Lean NYY, hou tt u,

1682976509396.png
 
NYM TT O2.5 -115 1.15-1
PIT/TBR O4.5 -120 1.2-1
CLV/NYY U3.5 -110 1.1-1
BAL TT O2.5 -115 1.15-1
TEX TT U1.5 -135 1.35-1
PHI ML +115 1-1.15
 
SFG/HOU U3.5 -105 2.1-2

BAL TT O2.5 -120 1.2-1


I lean LAD TT U but I can't get that team right.... May add to balty, take over, and/or bal rl...
 
Nola hasn’t exactly been consistent either. I didn’t think lad would run strahm from last nights game so soon.
 
1-1 +0.8
51-35 +10.4 Total

CIN TT U2.5 -150 3-2
MIN TT O2.5 +105 2-2.1
HOU/SEA U3.5 -125 2.5-2

BOS/PHI U4.5 -105 1.05-1
ATL -0.5 -160 1.6-1


Lean col tto, was rl, lad/sdp u, mil ml

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Thanks guys!

Solid 0-5 -10.15 yesterday

51-40 +0.25 Total

MIN/CLV U4 -125 2.5-2
WAS ML -105 2.1-2

CIN ML -145 1.45-1
SDP ML -125 1.25-1


1683404563668.png
 
I was a tad concerned bout gray, not great numbers in this park and figure he bound to have a bad game sooner or later but I been eying that Ff under in cle too. Glad to see you like it as well.

I actually like the white Sox for the game tonight, prob bodes well for you cause they never win when I trust them! I don’t like clevenger so understand the Ff. Lodolo a much better pitcher than him, I think cws couod be a tough matchup for him but I’d be happy just to be close once pens get involved. Gl
 
3-1 +3.75
54-41 +4.0 Total

MIN -0.5 -115 2.3-2

BOS TT O2.5 -110 1.1-1
NYY ML -140 1.4-1
SFG -0.5 -110 1.1-1
SFG TT O2.5 -105 1.05-1



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