ML Dogs Week 4 Edition
- Thread starter ProV1Colt
- Start date
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Yes. Continuing to fade IU as Penix on one leg hurts his team just as much as he helps it. Team plays hard but it's simply average and laying 9, on the road, against a capable team that would love nothing more than to take down a Big 10 opponent? Sign me up.
Vasherized
Well-Known Member
Arkansas
Wiscy
Baylor
Stanford
K State
WVU
Wiscy
Baylor
Stanford
K State
WVU
Rusty Trombone
Pretty much a regular
NCST gotta be on the list.....Clemson has looked lost on offense.....
opcorn:
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Yeah I liked both of those.... :shake:
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I'm looking at lines for first time here, I don't like the small ones, here are about a TD and up dogs might win I;ll be weighing:
Marshall has a shot. App St has probably been thinking about that loss last year in Huntington an awful lot though.
I wouldn't actually bet UNLV to win, but how is Haener feeling...on a short week no less?
Texas State - off a tough loss for them. Eastern is solid but nothing special (as noncovering win vs UMass showed). Incarnate Word might actually have a better offense than Eastern Michigan fields.
Kent State - yup, again. I was wrong, they did not have a shot at beating Iowa last week, but without changing much in that game, pretty easy to see how the final could've been 28-14 instead of 30-7 and it's not even a stretch to say that. Maryland WRs are going to be a challenge. After playing Texas A&M D and Iowa D, Kent should have a little more success here.
FIU - this one will require some looking into. I know #24 for FIU is a player! I worry that he is all their offense has. Can't really see CMich as DD fav so probably just more of an ATS play.
Miami Oh - they've nearly done it before at West Point (lost by 1 2018).
Utah State - ride that train! I'm betting Utah State every game and money lining every dog role! Note, USU has been trailing at HT in all 3 games this year. Outscored WSt 21-17, North Dakota 28-3 and AF 36-21 after halftime to win all 3.
Colorado State - the Rams D played like it should've all year last week. Or was that more of a Toledo thing. Iowa O is averaging just 22.6 ppg after 3 games this year when you take out defensive scores. Problem is, I don't know where CSU's O comes from.
WKU - agree with all previous comments on WKU
Crazy to see Hawaii this big of a fav at NMSt. I don't see myself ML this though.
Colorado - Arizona State sucks - CU gotta find something off that abysmal effort at home last week, right? ASU will probably do something to beat themselves and be called for 12 or more penalties like they have in every game this year.
Oregon State - I would like to feel better about the Ore St QB situation before I did this. Doesn't really matter if Slovis can go or not. USC is now a plug and play system with Harrell as OC. The other kid, Dart, he is a little wild, a little reckless perhaps, so maybe we want him to be the QB for Trojans. Then again, Slovis hasn't been really consistently good for two years so maybe it doesn't matter.
Texas Tech - Horns aren't anything special, TTech isn't though either
SMU - I think SMU might be better than their game last week
Baylor - is this Dave Aranda D up for the challenge? I'll say yes. Now can their O do enough, if ISU limits the Baylor run game, can Bears win it with their QB? Not sure.
Georgia State - because, who doesn't like a 27 pt dog to win! This was an identified upset spot in the summer. GaState hasn't quite been as good as expected (although there is no reason for them not to be) and Auburn has looked better than anticipated. Tough sandwich spot for Auburn with SEC opener vs LSU on deck. This is likely a game Georgia State is going to care a lot about. This GaState team beat Tennessee in 2019 as 26pt dog and Auburn albeit with a different coaching staff only beat Southern Miss by 11 laying 27 in 2018 and went to OT with Jax ST laying 47 in 2015. Now, GaSt did lose by 42 at UNC 2 weeks ago...so there is that.
Old Dominion - Buffalo is proving to be better than what I thought they would be. Still, not sure this version of UB football should be laying 2 TDs on the road. I am totally uneducated on ODU, so will require some research to actually come up with something to point to.
North Texas - rough game for NT last time out vs mad UAB. UAB, the Georgia game not withstanding, is a high quality G5 team. NTex might have some problems. Played a tough game vs SMU 2 weeks ago though. LaTech despite nearly pulling 2 upsets this year as DD dogs losing both on final plays of game, LT isn't the kind of team I look to play as a favorite often.
Cal - one game and UW all better now? Cal has beat Washington back-to-back. 2019 it was all, 'oh UW mad, they gonna get revenge this year' and nope, Cal beat them again. One thing I don't like, Cal DC who part of those games is gone (in Oregon now). Wilcox still D master, but would prefer all hands on deck.
Marshall has a shot. App St has probably been thinking about that loss last year in Huntington an awful lot though.
I wouldn't actually bet UNLV to win, but how is Haener feeling...on a short week no less?
Texas State - off a tough loss for them. Eastern is solid but nothing special (as noncovering win vs UMass showed). Incarnate Word might actually have a better offense than Eastern Michigan fields.
Kent State - yup, again. I was wrong, they did not have a shot at beating Iowa last week, but without changing much in that game, pretty easy to see how the final could've been 28-14 instead of 30-7 and it's not even a stretch to say that. Maryland WRs are going to be a challenge. After playing Texas A&M D and Iowa D, Kent should have a little more success here.
FIU - this one will require some looking into. I know #24 for FIU is a player! I worry that he is all their offense has. Can't really see CMich as DD fav so probably just more of an ATS play.
Miami Oh - they've nearly done it before at West Point (lost by 1 2018).
Utah State - ride that train! I'm betting Utah State every game and money lining every dog role! Note, USU has been trailing at HT in all 3 games this year. Outscored WSt 21-17, North Dakota 28-3 and AF 36-21 after halftime to win all 3.
Colorado State - the Rams D played like it should've all year last week. Or was that more of a Toledo thing. Iowa O is averaging just 22.6 ppg after 3 games this year when you take out defensive scores. Problem is, I don't know where CSU's O comes from.
WKU - agree with all previous comments on WKU
Crazy to see Hawaii this big of a fav at NMSt. I don't see myself ML this though.
Colorado - Arizona State sucks - CU gotta find something off that abysmal effort at home last week, right? ASU will probably do something to beat themselves and be called for 12 or more penalties like they have in every game this year.
Oregon State - I would like to feel better about the Ore St QB situation before I did this. Doesn't really matter if Slovis can go or not. USC is now a plug and play system with Harrell as OC. The other kid, Dart, he is a little wild, a little reckless perhaps, so maybe we want him to be the QB for Trojans. Then again, Slovis hasn't been really consistently good for two years so maybe it doesn't matter.
Texas Tech - Horns aren't anything special, TTech isn't though either
SMU - I think SMU might be better than their game last week
Baylor - is this Dave Aranda D up for the challenge? I'll say yes. Now can their O do enough, if ISU limits the Baylor run game, can Bears win it with their QB? Not sure.
Georgia State - because, who doesn't like a 27 pt dog to win! This was an identified upset spot in the summer. GaState hasn't quite been as good as expected (although there is no reason for them not to be) and Auburn has looked better than anticipated. Tough sandwich spot for Auburn with SEC opener vs LSU on deck. This is likely a game Georgia State is going to care a lot about. This GaState team beat Tennessee in 2019 as 26pt dog and Auburn albeit with a different coaching staff only beat Southern Miss by 11 laying 27 in 2018 and went to OT with Jax ST laying 47 in 2015. Now, GaSt did lose by 42 at UNC 2 weeks ago...so there is that.
Old Dominion - Buffalo is proving to be better than what I thought they would be. Still, not sure this version of UB football should be laying 2 TDs on the road. I am totally uneducated on ODU, so will require some research to actually come up with something to point to.
North Texas - rough game for NT last time out vs mad UAB. UAB, the Georgia game not withstanding, is a high quality G5 team. NTex might have some problems. Played a tough game vs SMU 2 weeks ago though. LaTech despite nearly pulling 2 upsets this year as DD dogs losing both on final plays of game, LT isn't the kind of team I look to play as a favorite often.
Cal - one game and UW all better now? Cal has beat Washington back-to-back. 2019 it was all, 'oh UW mad, they gonna get revenge this year' and nope, Cal beat them again. One thing I don't like, Cal DC who part of those games is gone (in Oregon now). Wilcox still D master, but would prefer all hands on deck.
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s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
How much you trust the Pack O after seeing the game in Starkville?
Each week and each game is different, so we don't have to hinge everything on that. Clemson D though...NC St QB good enough for this?
Rusty Trombone
Pretty much a regular
Leary is a gamer and gets to play at home, so thats a bonus. The Pack D has given up only 31 points in 3 games (24 to MSU)....So if the Pack can win the turnover battle and get good field position, I think this is their best chance to beat Clemson in quite some time.....Of course Clemson won't go down easy...but they've only scored 17 points in their 2 real games (UGA/GT)......Should be a good game.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Good point about quality NC St D...they are without LB Wilson who I think was their leader, but still a quality unit there. One of the TDs allowed vs MissSt was a KO return, which Clemson could do that, but I always viewed punt and kick TDs as fluky...so could say NcSt D only yielded 17 to MSU. Gotta be an under type game you think? Total pretty low already...47
Rusty Trombone
Pretty much a regular
I dont see how anyone could play the over. I see lots of running and short passes....Leary won't have time and Ugoloouilooiu doesn't have the talent to throw the ball past 20 yards....I think 24 could win the game....
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Yes, under, but Clemson just lost its best defensive player Tyler Davis for 7 or 8 weeks with a torn biceps. However, he missed the Georgia game as well, and the D help up just fine. I doubt this one gets to 30.
Also, TB Dixon just entered the portal.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I think Utah st worth another crack after paying off on road vs Air Force last week, now they get boise at home and imo Boise has not been impressive at all. Utah st quickly becoming this years dog darlings with 2 wins as very sizable doggy’s!! Best wazzu as 17 point dogs and AF as 9 point dogs!! I don’t see any reason they can’t clip boise and their garbage qb!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Appears we agree on Utah st, no reason to not continue riding them!
I have Kent st with the points as a play, Terps actually a big step down for them after already facing AM and iowa. Both games they kinda hung in for awhile. Their offense should have considerably more success against a Terps d that not very good, playing aggies and iowa will do a number on anyone’s offensive output!!
Think im more likely to continue playing the wku overs than a side, although I do think they will compete here.
Kinda thought same thing when I saw tcu as a dd fav. I haven’t seen tech at all this year, just a tcu fade if I play.
Def like the idea of continuing to fade udub, dunno what happened to Arky st other qb but they were doomed with Blackmon playing the entire game. Cal defense has not been as good as I would have expected tho.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I was incredibly disappointed in NCst offense in starksville, I generally think they call a really good offensive game plan/scheme and didn’t see much of it in that one. I can’t stand watching games in starksville, those obnoxious cow bells should be banned! If it bothers me on tv I’m sure it can effect a team coming in!! Clemson defense has been really good so I def worry bout ncst. Love their 2 running backs tho and like I said I typically think they call a really good game plan. Almost feel like there some value on tigers here, I know they have looked pretty awful on offense but when the last time you could get clemson-10 vs any acc team?
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s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
The Kelly Bryant year, 2017, the last time they weren't lethal on offense.
Very true. Gives some hesitation on Cal in this game. The unknown is, will last week be a spring board for UW?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Yea it tough to say with udub, I lean to no as I’ve mentioned several times I think they made a really bad hire with Lake. Cal defense has been way way worse than I anticipated they be, I easily covered with them vs tcu but gotta admit I’m shocked the way I got it, I expected the defense to keep that game close, not the offense putting up 32 points! I gave them a pass for allowing Nevada to pass for over 300 as I’m a huge fan of that offense and qb! Allowing tcu to rush for almost 300 yards a problem tho, then last week Sacramento state passed for 370!! As crazy as it feels I actually think the over might be the best play vs udub, unless something drastically changes with start of conf play 46.5 feels really short!! I thought udub passing game showed signs of improvement in 2nd half the Michigan game, throwing for 367 vs Arky st isn’t all that impressive but still think another good sign now going up against a cal d that been getting torched thru the air! I think with the improvement Garber been showing Cal be able to score some points/think they have to hang in this one after watching their d thus far. Think this total is based more off expectations/perception than the performance of either defense thus far.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I didn’t really hold the Uga game against Clemson too much, that dawgs defense is nasty and that a brutal game to start your season with. Obviously the gtech game was concerning but I know this qb is talented and I still trust Dabo to get things figured out, how can ya not? When DJ had to play for Lawrence last year the offense still performed really well, so I gotta think there reasons other than qb they struggling? Seems they miss Etienne a bunch! I assume they still have talented wrs and other rbs?
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
The only team that challenged UW pass D all season was Ark St. Be that as teams didn't think they were best suited to attack it or the gameplan was to just run it and play to their own strengths. UW pass D should matchup well vs most receivers and QBs. You could say that Garbers is the best QB UW secondary has faced. I tend to think UW can handle it.
It is weird to say it and maybe I'm thinking myself out of taking Cal, but I think the offense with the best chance for success in this game is UW even after what I saw week 1 and week 2. I might respect the UW D too much.
It is weird to say it and maybe I'm thinking myself out of taking Cal, but I think the offense with the best chance for success in this game is UW even after what I saw week 1 and week 2. I might respect the UW D too much.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
@MW can offer insight.
Clemson lost top 2 WRs and Etienne major contributor in passing game. That is top 3 receivers that DJ could rely on last year when he was in that aren't there. Maybe he is succumbing to pressure, maybe off field distractions have hurt him...like if Clemson were to give Phommachann a shot, would Dr Pepper pull the NIL deal?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
True, I mean Michigan just destroyed them on the ground and got the early lead so they really had no reason to throw the ball. I would have liked to seen Hatcher last week and not just Blackmon (still dunno what happened there?). Not that I love the cal offense but do think it be the most capable passing attack they have seen (since Hatcher didn’t play last week). Cal has a ok rushing attack so not like they one dimensional like Arky st so gives the udub defense more things to worry bout. I think you def making the case to pass on Cal! Lol. I just think this a game that played in mid 20s so 46.5 seems very attainable. After watching a lot of Cal this year I certainly can’t disagree udub offense should have success. I think they outta be able to score somewhere between 27-31 on the Cal d, If that happens I think cal would be able to give us the 20 to get over.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Maybe it not correct to just assume Clemson reloads with new weapons when they lose 3 guys? That is def how I thought bout them coming into the year. Could still be correct and it just taking some time? Good point about the pressure, I think NIL def brings a whole new thing into all this.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
It's cut-down day, revising my list from post #11
Texas State
Kent State (just a little)
Utah State
WKU
New Mexico State
SMU
Baylor
Georgia State (just a tiny bit)
Of those, Utah State, SMU and Baylor are playing good football this year. They happen to play teams that are supposed to be stronger than them, hence the dog spot. Utah St and Baylor are at home. SMU is on the road, but that hasn't mattered in this series (road team 5-0-1 ATS). SMU won at TCU as 8pt dog in 2019. Alot of times we get teams that aren't playing well and that is why they are dogged. How about a favorite who isn't playing well..Hawaii! New Mexico St is not a good team, but did hang with San Diego St and New Mexico as big dogs. Eastern Michigan has been home fav vs FBS nine times the last five years and have lost 5 straight up. Texas St is better than a bad MAC team which is who EM is normally home chalk vs. WKU has the potential we all like about them this year and as has been pointed out, rough spot for Indiana who is not playing very well. Kent and Georgia St satisfy guilty pleasures. Kent would seem like the more likely of the two, at least they aren't playing at a top 10 team this time! Close ATS losses at aTm and Iowa (were covering in each until the 4th Q). Georgia St winning is crazy town, I'm still taking it.
Texas State
Kent State (just a little)
Utah State
WKU
New Mexico State
SMU
Baylor
Georgia State (just a tiny bit)
Of those, Utah State, SMU and Baylor are playing good football this year. They happen to play teams that are supposed to be stronger than them, hence the dog spot. Utah St and Baylor are at home. SMU is on the road, but that hasn't mattered in this series (road team 5-0-1 ATS). SMU won at TCU as 8pt dog in 2019. Alot of times we get teams that aren't playing well and that is why they are dogged. How about a favorite who isn't playing well..Hawaii! New Mexico St is not a good team, but did hang with San Diego St and New Mexico as big dogs. Eastern Michigan has been home fav vs FBS nine times the last five years and have lost 5 straight up. Texas St is better than a bad MAC team which is who EM is normally home chalk vs. WKU has the potential we all like about them this year and as has been pointed out, rough spot for Indiana who is not playing very well. Kent and Georgia St satisfy guilty pleasures. Kent would seem like the more likely of the two, at least they aren't playing at a top 10 team this time! Close ATS losses at aTm and Iowa (were covering in each until the 4th Q). Georgia St winning is crazy town, I'm still taking it.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Texas State lost to Incarnate Word in an embarrassing loss 34-42. Texas St was an 11pt favorite. I'm going to attempt to explain some of that away and apply it to this week. Incarnate Word has a pretty good QB, in fact Cameron Ward won the 2021 spring Jerry Rice Award which is given to the best FCS Freshman (2260 PY with 24-4 ratio in just 6 games). He started this season with 560 PY and a 7-0 ratio in two games before TxSt played him. Incarnate Word averaged 552 ypg and 42 ppg in the pring FCS season. This was a pretty capable O led by a pretty good QB that Texas State lost to.
Eastern Michigan does not possess a very explosive or dynamic offense, I'd say that Texas State in fact played a better offense last week than they will here.
Texas State found out last Friday morning before the IUW game that 24 players would be out due to covid contract tracing protocol, 15 of those players were in the 2-deep and among them were the Offensive and Defensive team captains! The number of players impacted this week will still be a challenge. Names were not given, but HC Spavital says 10 of the 24 will be available for the game, however none are practiced until Thursday, most will not practice and 6 will have to fly commercially day of game.
Texas State returned home after an OT win at FIU. Texas State is not a team accustomed to handling success and it is possible they didn't respect their FCS opponent properly.
Prior to the UIW loss and FIU win, Texas State played Baylor fairly tough week 1, losing just 20-29 (+14, gave up safety on final play).
They were feisty at times last year as a dog, going 5-5 ATS with a near miss at BC (lost 21-24) and were only outgained by 6 yards vs App St despite losing by 21.
But obviously Texas State was not a good team last year and had a lot of work to do. They signed a huge number of transfers and started the season with 10 new starters.
They play at Eastern Michigan this week, who also was not a good team last year, 2-4.
Eastern Michigan is 0-3 ATS this year underperforming in a week 1 20 pt win over St Francis laying 32, got blown out worse than the final vs Wisconsin and last week beat UMass 42-28 (22pt fav), but check that EM allowed 209 (6.15) rushing yards to a UMass team that hasn't rushed for over 200y in a game since 2019 when they did it vs Akron and UConn! UMass RB Merriweather 23att-144 (6.26) - that is more than his previous 6 games combined! UMass QB was a tr frosh making his second career start and he passed for 23-39-310-2-1. I think reflects negatively on the EM D.
The Texas St O should be bringing plenty of ability here. QB Brady McBride can be wild at times with the throws, but is also capable of making big plays happen with his scrambling ability bring a lot to the table. TxSt has a 3-headed RB attack who can all carry the load. Barbee was the #1 WR last year and a pretty good one, he's off to a good start leading the way again. The OL needed improvement, and 3 of those 10 new starters overall are on the OL with some of last year's starters bumped down to second team.
The Texas St offense should be on par with the upper-middle to lower-upper tier MAC team, and better than what several MAC teams field like the ones Eastern Michigan is used to being favored against. As I mentioned last week typing about a possible UMass upset, that UMass team just is not ready to win a game vs a team who is better than them. Here I don't believe Eastern Michigan is actually better than Texas State. But Eastern Michigan historically plays in a ton of close games. All their games this year have been decided by double digits, but entering this season 42 of the last 48 were 1 score games! And EM lost straight up 3 times as a favorite in 2019.
Normally this would be a small home favorite spot for Eastern Michigan, with Texas State's loss last week, the line has been adjusted, but I think incorrectly so. Other than the customary homefield advantage, I don't think Eastern Michigan is actually better than Texas State. The covid protocol player availability is a bit of a wildcard. Outside of that, I think Texas State can bounce back with a win this week, have a bye on deck and look to get back on the right track.
Eastern Michigan does not possess a very explosive or dynamic offense, I'd say that Texas State in fact played a better offense last week than they will here.
Texas State found out last Friday morning before the IUW game that 24 players would be out due to covid contract tracing protocol, 15 of those players were in the 2-deep and among them were the Offensive and Defensive team captains! The number of players impacted this week will still be a challenge. Names were not given, but HC Spavital says 10 of the 24 will be available for the game, however none are practiced until Thursday, most will not practice and 6 will have to fly commercially day of game.
Texas State returned home after an OT win at FIU. Texas State is not a team accustomed to handling success and it is possible they didn't respect their FCS opponent properly.
Prior to the UIW loss and FIU win, Texas State played Baylor fairly tough week 1, losing just 20-29 (+14, gave up safety on final play).
They were feisty at times last year as a dog, going 5-5 ATS with a near miss at BC (lost 21-24) and were only outgained by 6 yards vs App St despite losing by 21.
But obviously Texas State was not a good team last year and had a lot of work to do. They signed a huge number of transfers and started the season with 10 new starters.
They play at Eastern Michigan this week, who also was not a good team last year, 2-4.
Eastern Michigan is 0-3 ATS this year underperforming in a week 1 20 pt win over St Francis laying 32, got blown out worse than the final vs Wisconsin and last week beat UMass 42-28 (22pt fav), but check that EM allowed 209 (6.15) rushing yards to a UMass team that hasn't rushed for over 200y in a game since 2019 when they did it vs Akron and UConn! UMass RB Merriweather 23att-144 (6.26) - that is more than his previous 6 games combined! UMass QB was a tr frosh making his second career start and he passed for 23-39-310-2-1. I think reflects negatively on the EM D.
The Texas St O should be bringing plenty of ability here. QB Brady McBride can be wild at times with the throws, but is also capable of making big plays happen with his scrambling ability bring a lot to the table. TxSt has a 3-headed RB attack who can all carry the load. Barbee was the #1 WR last year and a pretty good one, he's off to a good start leading the way again. The OL needed improvement, and 3 of those 10 new starters overall are on the OL with some of last year's starters bumped down to second team.
The Texas St offense should be on par with the upper-middle to lower-upper tier MAC team, and better than what several MAC teams field like the ones Eastern Michigan is used to being favored against. As I mentioned last week typing about a possible UMass upset, that UMass team just is not ready to win a game vs a team who is better than them. Here I don't believe Eastern Michigan is actually better than Texas State. But Eastern Michigan historically plays in a ton of close games. All their games this year have been decided by double digits, but entering this season 42 of the last 48 were 1 score games! And EM lost straight up 3 times as a favorite in 2019.
Normally this would be a small home favorite spot for Eastern Michigan, with Texas State's loss last week, the line has been adjusted, but I think incorrectly so. Other than the customary homefield advantage, I don't think Eastern Michigan is actually better than Texas State. The covid protocol player availability is a bit of a wildcard. Outside of that, I think Texas State can bounce back with a win this week, have a bye on deck and look to get back on the right track.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Pretty fucking stellar write-up per usual!
:shake:
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Wish I was faster at them like @VirginiaCavs I don't know how he gets so many write ups done in such a short period of time
I'm surprised I am as fast with them as I am because I don't know nearly as much about these teams as you do :cheers6:
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
How will Kent State beat Maryland? Let's look at the Kent offense first.
Kent State has moved the ball ok at times vs tough defenses at Texas A&M and Iowa this season, a couple of the top two defenses in the entire country in some stadiums that can make it tough on the opponents. Kent had trouble finishing drives, which, a lot of teams would.
Vs Texas A&M
- 10p68y to the AM13 = FG
- 9p53y to the AM22 = INT
- 10p75y = 1y TD run
- possessions started at AM06 and AM30 result in missed FG
Vs Kent St
- 5p75y = 23y TD pass
- 7p46y to the I34 = punt (were at the 28 but sacked)
- 7p 40y to the I35 = SOD
- 15p 75y to the I01 = fumble into EZ
Against Texas A&M they had 3 legitimate scoring drives that ended in 10 points. Against Iowa they had 4 legitimate scoring drives end in 7 points. Together it is 7 drives where they got just 17 points out of. What if Kent played a lesser defense?
Looking at Maryland, in their game vs Illinois the Illini had 4 drives that penetrated the UMD 40 yard line and ILL scored on all 4.
- 9p 77y to the M08 = FG
- 10p 73y to the M07 = FG
- 8p 93y = 38y run for TD
- 3p 46y = 30y run for TD
That’s 100% points off drives penetrating the Maryland 40. There was a drive that started at the M25 after a fumble recovery, but ILL gave it right back with INT.
Hopefully what all this means is that an offense that has shown to be productive in the past, has a decent QB, can continue to move the chains and convert some drives in opponent territory into more points.
Last year Buffalo was Kent’s toughest opponent. Kent had the following drives penetrate the 40:
- 9p 47y to the B10 = FG
- 6p 80y = 3y TD pass
- 9p 48y to the B27 = missed FG
- 3p 75y = 42y TD pass
- 10p 75y = 20y TD run
- 9p 68y to the B17 = SOD
- 5p 75y = 1y TD run
- 8p 47y to the B18 = FG
- 10p 70y = 20y TD pass
Kent was able to get points on 7 of 9 drives past the UB 40. So evidence suggests that Kent can cash their drives in for points...when they aren’t playing top 10 ranked teams. Comparing Buffalo to Maryland’s defense isn’t exactly fair either. However, I think comparing Illinois offensive capabilities to Kent’s is also unfair. Unless I am over estimating the effectiveness of the Kent offense. We were talking that what we saw last year out of a lot of G5 teams was only G5 vs G5 games and perhaps that has created a false assumption that these teams can capably produce vs P5 teams.
The total thinks that Kent State is going to be able to score better this game as well.
Now, how will Kent State's defense do? Tricky. I initially was afraid that Maryland WRs are going to be a problem, on paper they should be. However, the Kent pass D has done pretty well. And not because teams can run all over Kent, we'll get to that later, but when tested, Kent pass D has responded well.
The Kent State D has the 16th rated pass eff D. Playing VMI helps, but how about 4 INTs at aTm? Kent allowed a high completion % vs Iowa, but they were all short passes. Iowa didn't have any better ypa numbers vs Kent than they did vs Indiana or vs Iowa State.
No doubt, the challenge vs Maryland will be Kent's toughest. Obviously aTm was starting a first time QB and Iowa, well it's Iowa so plays in the passing game isn't exactly what they do. It is what Maryland does and as a group, the Maryland WRs are outstanding and Lia has been really really good. No matter how good the pass D looked vs Texas A&M or Iowa, this is still a worry.
And run D, let's face it, Kent has never been strong run D especially against a P5 opponent. So I don't hold out a ton of hope here, except that Iowa is a strong running team and except for one big misdirection outside toss play Kent held up ok, atleast in limiting big plays.
Bottom line, the hope is that Kent State can limit big plays and make Maryland earn their points and yards and maybe Kent has a bounce or two goes their way. And then Kent absolutely needs to be super efficient with their possessions. Some people might read this and think it makes a case for the over, and it looks like it does, but I am going to be hoping for Kent RZ success on D and a few turnovers to keep Terp pts off the board.
Kent State has moved the ball ok at times vs tough defenses at Texas A&M and Iowa this season, a couple of the top two defenses in the entire country in some stadiums that can make it tough on the opponents. Kent had trouble finishing drives, which, a lot of teams would.
Vs Texas A&M
- 10p68y to the AM13 = FG
- 9p53y to the AM22 = INT
- 10p75y = 1y TD run
- possessions started at AM06 and AM30 result in missed FG
Vs Kent St
- 5p75y = 23y TD pass
- 7p46y to the I34 = punt (were at the 28 but sacked)
- 7p 40y to the I35 = SOD
- 15p 75y to the I01 = fumble into EZ
Against Texas A&M they had 3 legitimate scoring drives that ended in 10 points. Against Iowa they had 4 legitimate scoring drives end in 7 points. Together it is 7 drives where they got just 17 points out of. What if Kent played a lesser defense?
Looking at Maryland, in their game vs Illinois the Illini had 4 drives that penetrated the UMD 40 yard line and ILL scored on all 4.
- 9p 77y to the M08 = FG
- 10p 73y to the M07 = FG
- 8p 93y = 38y run for TD
- 3p 46y = 30y run for TD
That’s 100% points off drives penetrating the Maryland 40. There was a drive that started at the M25 after a fumble recovery, but ILL gave it right back with INT.
Hopefully what all this means is that an offense that has shown to be productive in the past, has a decent QB, can continue to move the chains and convert some drives in opponent territory into more points.
Last year Buffalo was Kent’s toughest opponent. Kent had the following drives penetrate the 40:
- 9p 47y to the B10 = FG
- 6p 80y = 3y TD pass
- 9p 48y to the B27 = missed FG
- 3p 75y = 42y TD pass
- 10p 75y = 20y TD run
- 9p 68y to the B17 = SOD
- 5p 75y = 1y TD run
- 8p 47y to the B18 = FG
- 10p 70y = 20y TD pass
Kent was able to get points on 7 of 9 drives past the UB 40. So evidence suggests that Kent can cash their drives in for points...when they aren’t playing top 10 ranked teams. Comparing Buffalo to Maryland’s defense isn’t exactly fair either. However, I think comparing Illinois offensive capabilities to Kent’s is also unfair. Unless I am over estimating the effectiveness of the Kent offense. We were talking that what we saw last year out of a lot of G5 teams was only G5 vs G5 games and perhaps that has created a false assumption that these teams can capably produce vs P5 teams.
The total thinks that Kent State is going to be able to score better this game as well.
Now, how will Kent State's defense do? Tricky. I initially was afraid that Maryland WRs are going to be a problem, on paper they should be. However, the Kent pass D has done pretty well. And not because teams can run all over Kent, we'll get to that later, but when tested, Kent pass D has responded well.
The Kent State D has the 16th rated pass eff D. Playing VMI helps, but how about 4 INTs at aTm? Kent allowed a high completion % vs Iowa, but they were all short passes. Iowa didn't have any better ypa numbers vs Kent than they did vs Indiana or vs Iowa State.
No doubt, the challenge vs Maryland will be Kent's toughest. Obviously aTm was starting a first time QB and Iowa, well it's Iowa so plays in the passing game isn't exactly what they do. It is what Maryland does and as a group, the Maryland WRs are outstanding and Lia has been really really good. No matter how good the pass D looked vs Texas A&M or Iowa, this is still a worry.
And run D, let's face it, Kent has never been strong run D especially against a P5 opponent. So I don't hold out a ton of hope here, except that Iowa is a strong running team and except for one big misdirection outside toss play Kent held up ok, atleast in limiting big plays.
Bottom line, the hope is that Kent State can limit big plays and make Maryland earn their points and yards and maybe Kent has a bounce or two goes their way. And then Kent absolutely needs to be super efficient with their possessions. Some people might read this and think it makes a case for the over, and it looks like it does, but I am going to be hoping for Kent RZ success on D and a few turnovers to keep Terp pts off the board.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I def thought bout over but then I saw where it was! That little higher than I’m comfy with! I think it def speaks to Kent st ability to score on Terps tho! Terps without a doubt (in my mind) have the scariest passing attack Kent will see all year, they got some dudes on outside that will for sure be playing on Sunday’s. I don’t think Terps rushing attack is really good tho, I don’t have my laptop on me so not gonna look till morning but my perception is I don’t worry bout them just running it down their throats, just not their identity from what I’ve seen. Gotta believe Terps feeling themselves a bit and if there ever a game I could see a team get caught looking past it this one for Terps.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I got a new longshot...Kansas!
Duke played a very bad defensive game vs Charlotte week 1. They played an awful 1st H vs NC A&T week 2 and played an awful 2nd H vs Northwestern week 3. Duke has some ok players, the real threat is their running game with RB Durant. He went off vs Charlotte, but has been quieter since. Duke built such a big lead last week vs NW thanks to 4 1st H turnovers.
Kansas and run defense have never liked eachother much and they don't again. That's the hurdle to get across.
It's just weird that Duke would be this large of a favorite vs most any FBS, except, well Kansas! Jason Bean does give Kansas some potential at QB, mostly when he runs. We saw some of that at Coastal. Kansas didn't cover at Coastal depending what your full game line was (either 26.5 or 27 at close). They did play a respectable 1st H I thought.
Kansas has been so bad for so long, it would be a surprise if Duke lost to them, but then again, we've seen Duke play the last 1+ years and they are slipping themselves.
Could happen. Duke would fall into the "weak or poor favorite" category. Duke lost as DD fav vs Syracuse in 2019 and DD fav vs WF in 2018. Duke is only 6-8 straight up as a favorite the last 3 years including a 1/4 of this year.
Duke played a very bad defensive game vs Charlotte week 1. They played an awful 1st H vs NC A&T week 2 and played an awful 2nd H vs Northwestern week 3. Duke has some ok players, the real threat is their running game with RB Durant. He went off vs Charlotte, but has been quieter since. Duke built such a big lead last week vs NW thanks to 4 1st H turnovers.
Kansas and run defense have never liked eachother much and they don't again. That's the hurdle to get across.
It's just weird that Duke would be this large of a favorite vs most any FBS, except, well Kansas! Jason Bean does give Kansas some potential at QB, mostly when he runs. We saw some of that at Coastal. Kansas didn't cover at Coastal depending what your full game line was (either 26.5 or 27 at close). They did play a respectable 1st H I thought.
Kansas has been so bad for so long, it would be a surprise if Duke lost to them, but then again, we've seen Duke play the last 1+ years and they are slipping themselves.
Could happen. Duke would fall into the "weak or poor favorite" category. Duke lost as DD fav vs Syracuse in 2019 and DD fav vs WF in 2018. Duke is only 6-8 straight up as a favorite the last 3 years including a 1/4 of this year.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
with you on utah st and i think kent (def with the points), im gonna do one of these also but really dont wanna go more than 4 teams deep as it gets too pricey with too many parlays after 4!! lol.. no clue on irish but i suppose the plus money the right way to go about if i think it kinda a toss up! havnt looked at texas st or miami oh, miami playing army right? how their run defense?
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
I played KU +16 just out of principle.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
This one doesn't exactly feel right...Tennessee anybody?
It feels like Florida beat Alabama, I mean the sentiment and talk and relief and almost satisfaction in the fans of losing close. This might be more of a flat spot for Gators than I originally thought depending how the players are reacting.
So we are talking about upset wins, but consider, Florida didn't cover vs USF or FAU and Emory Jones was a turnover machine with 2-4 ratio in those games. If AR15 is playing I would totally lay off any ML angle, so I don't know his status.
Vols haven't needed to do a whole lot vs BG and Tenn Tech. Gave Pitt a game for a bit. Haven't faced any semblance of a rushing attack and I'm not sure how Vols will respond on D vs that.
In the weird crazy world of college football these are the kind of things that happen Florida nearly beats Alabama gashing them on the ground in the process and follows it up by losing to a team Florida has owned. In reality Florida usually crushes them and wins most by DD. Playing this is the definition of faith in the unexpected nature of college football. Vols expected to get some players back this week and hopefully Hooker gets the keys at QB for full game.
It feels like Florida beat Alabama, I mean the sentiment and talk and relief and almost satisfaction in the fans of losing close. This might be more of a flat spot for Gators than I originally thought depending how the players are reacting.
So we are talking about upset wins, but consider, Florida didn't cover vs USF or FAU and Emory Jones was a turnover machine with 2-4 ratio in those games. If AR15 is playing I would totally lay off any ML angle, so I don't know his status.
Vols haven't needed to do a whole lot vs BG and Tenn Tech. Gave Pitt a game for a bit. Haven't faced any semblance of a rushing attack and I'm not sure how Vols will respond on D vs that.
In the weird crazy world of college football these are the kind of things that happen Florida nearly beats Alabama gashing them on the ground in the process and follows it up by losing to a team Florida has owned. In reality Florida usually crushes them and wins most by DD. Playing this is the definition of faith in the unexpected nature of college football. Vols expected to get some players back this week and hopefully Hooker gets the keys at QB for full game.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Not sure how well they stop the run but They hung with them 2 years ago and Miami has played a much
Tougher schedule that’s why I rolled with them.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
long as Hooker qb i like vols, sounds like it will be hooker.. i was on pitt against them but i was worried when hooker came into game, had he played entire game i dunno if pitt wins? really liked hooker at vatech and vols sure look more formidable to me with him at qb!! not only do i think gators will have a really hard time getting back up for this one but i also think playing bama really takes it out of ya as that was a pretty physical game!!
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Kansas only trailed Baylor 7-14 HT last week (lost 7-45).
Kansas only trailed Coastal 22-28 early 3rd Q (lost 22-49)
There is both some good and bad in those points
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Kent State...absolutely!! Vols are not going to win in the swamp...if ya hafta take the Vols then go with the 1st half....FWIW I've come around on the Kent State idea....methinks they are live today!
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Tennessee doesn't have the D to stop this Florida Offense for the entire game....I just can't see it....I can, however, see a 1st Half ML win by the Vols due to a Gator letdown, hangover, whatever after playing Bama last week....if ya gotta play the Vols roll 1st Half....just my $0.02 worth.
