ML Dogs Week 3 Edition

CPA-hole said:
Granted it's usually a marquee or top 10 opponent. But still. Just food for thought.
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for sure. I just dunno much bout auburn this year as they just blowing out scrubs thus far. I thought psu was pretty much ass in the red zone vs ball st. Their red zone d been fantastic the 1st couple weeks so barring any big plays the under def makes some sense.
 
2daBank said:
for sure. I just dunno much bout auburn this year as they just blowing out scrubs thus far. I thought psu was pretty much ass in the red zone vs ball st. Their red zone d been fantastic the 1st couple weeks so barring any big plays the under def makes some sense.
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Sandwich my brah
 
2daBank said:
Should udub really be laying 17 to a team with a very capable offense? Arky st defense isn’t good but I dunno if that means huskies crappy offense can hang a 40 s burger?!?? This could either be a game udub takes out their early season frustrations or they could really go into the tank! Think almost worth sprinkling the huge ml in case it the latter.
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You know I was thinking about this exact game earlier today. Can't know where Washington's heads are so hard to make a play on the basis of that. This Arkansas State D is bad, very bad. I feel lucky to have got the ATS cover with them last week as Memphis could've run for 500y if they wanted to. Fortunately Ark St had an O that was clicking - they have been better in the 2nd Hs this year, a lot better week 1 2nd H and a little better last week 2nd H. Montana I'm sure has a better front 7 and run D that Ark St has. At a lower number I'd bet Washington, I say lower number just because I hate laying 3 scores most of the time. But if somebody is thinking this Washington team has given up and thrown in the towel then a little bit of change on the ML can't hurt I guess.
 
2daBank said:
for sure. I just dunno much bout auburn this year as they just blowing out scrubs thus far. I thought psu was pretty much ass in the red zone vs ball st. Their red zone d been fantastic the 1st couple weeks so barring any big plays the under def makes some sense.
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No doubt. That's the question. We don't have any clue what Auburn will be.

Penn St has playmakers on D. #17 from Clemson is a stud. But they were still on the field for most of that game vs Wisky. Also Wisky blew 4 chances inside the PSU 30.
 
CPA-hole said:
No doubt. That's the question. We don't have any clue what Auburn will be.

Penn St has playmakers on D. #17 from Clemson is a stud. But they were still on the field for most of that game vs Wisky. Also Wisky blew 4 chances inside the PSU 30.
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for sure, don’t think I can recall another game a team who had 90+ offensive plays lost!
 
2daBank said:
didn’t pen st cover tho? I dunno, I know I needed ball st to score on that last garbage drive since psu settled for so many stinking Fgs in red zone, missed over by 1 damn point.
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Yep but I've had Auburn at PSU circled this year. Usually not a big PSU guy but I really like this team and Auby comes in so overrated for reasons we all know
 
s--k said:
You know I was thinking about this exact game earlier today. Can't know where Washington's heads are so hard to make a play on the basis of that. This Arkansas State D is bad, very bad. I feel lucky to have got the ATS cover with them last week as Memphis could've run for 500y if they wanted to. Fortunately Ark St had an O that was clicking - they have been better in the 2nd Hs this year, a lot better week 1 2nd H and a little better last week 2nd H. Montana I'm sure has a better front 7 and run D that Ark St has. At a lower number I'd bet Washington, I say lower number just because I hate laying 3 scores most of the time. But if somebody is thinking this Washington team has given up and thrown in the towel then a little bit of change on the ML can't hurt I guess.
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yea it impossible to say what their mindset is and I’m with ya the arky st d is very bad. I do think they will be able to put up around 20 tho. I just dunno if huskies offense gonna hang a huge number even against a bad d? I have to look a little more but I do think lake was a awful hire.
 
KJ said:
Yep but I've had Auburn at PSU circled this year. Usually not a big PSU guy but I really like this team and Auby comes in so overrated for reasons we all know
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havbt seen your thread yet. So you laid the 6.5 w psu? Freaking impossible to know anything bout auburn at this point, gotta give psu the advantage that they have played some real teams, even ball st was much tougher team than anyone auburn has played.
 
Bo Nix on the road:

Nix has played in 12 games away from Jordan-Hare in 2-plus years as Auburn’s starting quarterback. His numbers are cringe-worthy. He’s never thrown for 300 yards on the road, and his career-high for TD throws is 3, a figure he’s reached just once.

In 2019, his freshman season, Nix recorded a quarterback rating of 112.76 in 6 road games.

For reference, that rating today would rank 95th among QBs nationally.

Most thought those numbers would improve in 2020, but that’s not what happened. Nix digressed and he posted a QB rating of 106.56 away from Jordan-Hare.

Where would that rank today? Try 99th nationally.

How does that compare with his rating in home games? Well, Nix compiled a mediocre 133.68 rating his freshman year. But as would be expected, he improved the following year to 155.05. In 2 games this season Nix has a QB rating of 199.17, which ranks 5th in the nation.

It’s a minor miracle that the Tigers were able to actually win 5 of those 12 road games. But Auburn has won only twice in the past 8 road/neutral games; both were last season and both in the state of Mississippi. Auburn defeated Mississippi State, 24-10, despite Nix completing just 15-of-42 passes for 125 yards and topped Ole Miss, 35-28, with Nix throwing for 238 yards (23-of-30).
go

It was 1 of only 4 road games in which Nix has thrown for more than 200 yards. That’s the kind of performance Auburn needs to see from Nix on Saturday if the Tigers hope to spring the upset.
But there may be light at the end of the tunnel. Nix’s most recent game away from home was perhaps his best, at least statistically. Auburn was hammered by Northwestern, 35-19, in last year’s Citrus Bowl, but Nix put up fairly impressive numbers. He threw for 292 yards, a career-high away from Jordan-Hare. He completed 25-of-42 passes (59.5 percent). He threw 1 touchdown and did not toss a pick.
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2daBank said:
havbt seen your thread yet. So you laid the 6.5 w psu? Freaking impossible to know anything bout auburn at this point, gotta give psu the advantage that they have played some real teams, even ball st was much tougher team than anyone auburn has played.
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Was always gonna be a blind PSU wager up to 13
 
Frank Costanza said:
No shit. Any time I play an under I'll rarely watch it on tv and will just wait to check on the score in the 2H or even wait until it's final to see if I got a cover.
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Thing is they're much more dramatic than overs, especially if you like defense
 
KJ said:
Thing is they're much more dramatic than overs, especially if you like defense
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No doubt. But on the flip side the (obvious) wonderful thing about overs is seeing a ticket cash with 4 minutes left in the third quarter.
 
Frank Costanza said:
No doubt. But on the flip side the (obvious) wonderful thing about overs is seeing a ticket cash with 4 minutes left in the third quarter.
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that is true. It is nice having a play cash in 3rd qrtr opposed to sweating out every last minute! Of course most the overs I play im mostly just cussing at the offenses for 4qrts! Lol
 
So with SDQL no longer available, I've had to figure out a different way to start capping. Just to get a feel for what dogs the lines-makers may not be willing to give much odds to, I have charted the Sagarin Differences between the favs and dogs (above +200 ML odds mostly) and the ML odds. I don't know, maybe this just gives me a feel for where there may be a situation. For example, take a look at the home dog chart below. Some teams are well below the trend line average for odds for the week. Teams such as Louisville, Hawaii, Illinois.....

Take an especially close look at Vandy...they're a difference of -106 but the odds are +328 which is really not that far off from the aformentioned teams who Sagarin differences are more like -52, -46, and -31.......wtf?? Vandy? So the linesmakers, IMHO are not willing to give much ML odds to Vandy of all fucking teams? This leads me to think can they really knock off Stanford? Stanford has shown they do not like traveling east...they lost to KState already and got hammered a couple years ago at UCF. But this is Vandy....even so, oddsmakes are not giving that much better odds than teams with half the Sagarin difference. Will there be a letdown from the combination of a big win over USC and then having to travel east again? Interesting....to be continued.

homedogs.jpg
 
More likely Vandy loses by 50 than covers 12 but both teams in terrible situations
 
Here is my away dog chart.....the teams I circled in green are teams such as Sparty, Purdue, FSU....but look at the one really wild outlier in the center under 500 and to the left of -75...that is Colorado State. Isn't it somewhat uncanny it seems that the two most extreme outliers (Vandy from my previous post) just got thru playing each other?? In this case, Toledo is CSU's opponent and they just lost a tough one on the road at ND?? They may have a tough time getting up for this game? 2 years ago they inexplicably lost to Bowling Green at home so they have shown they are capable of laying a dud....can it happen again this Saturday?

:popcorn:

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If you made it this far and read my last few posts, you prolly can imagine how bad my card is going to look this weekend....

:hang:
 
I like it @JROCK1966 - you are breaking new ground!

Now, for me, I like the data, but can there be something tangible we can point to on the teams that we could possibly like. I'd like to use the data you are putting together to provide further evidence or confidence in a team instead of starting with it.

So let's see if we have anything we can like about CSU or Vandy.

CSU disappointed me pretty bad week 1 (SD St) - but SD St is good and all, I thought CSU just was quite visibly the worse team both physically, executionally and coaching wise, I thought CSU would win and the game wasn't close...I think CSU might lose 10 out of 10 vs South Dakota. One thing I can say that I like (or did like) about CSU is their DL and a step further, I think their run D and front 7 is pretty good oveall...not that it showed up vs South Dakota St, but it should have. Personnel wise, they have players in those defensive groups who should hold up. So that is something if I was going to back CSU that I would look for giving me hope they will compete. What I don't like is their QB, their coach and now their #1 WR is out...and South Dakota St bottled up David Bailey like a top flight ACC D would - so their run blocking was concerning as well (which it shouldn't be but they aren't as good as they should be on OL). Tell me you like CSU and I will tell you their run D should give you hope.

If we were going to try and find something "good" about Vandy what is it? Physically not situationally? Last week I said I thought their QB (he's had some 300y games so some level of competency) and receivers could find some success vs CSU (CSU pass D is their worst aspect of D). If we assume that Seals and the Vandy receivers are somewhat capable, is that enough this week vs Stanford? I don't think so. Tell me you like Vandy this week and I don't think I have anything to offer, but maybe somebody else could. Vandy is only tempting to play ATS because of the spread they are throwing out there, but I can't bet Vandy to win and Stanford to lose to them and I'm not sue I even want to take them ATS, but might have to do the hold my nose thing.

Not that I want to talk anybody out of anything, just looking for something on-field, personnel, coaching edge or some roster or style of play strength justification - it's hard pressed to do that with Vandy.
 
s--k said:
I like it @JROCK1966 - you are breaking new ground!

Now, for me, I like the data, but can there be something tangible we can point to on the teams that we could possibly like. I'd like to use the data you are putting together to provide further evidence or confidence in a team instead of starting with it.

So let's see if we have anything we can like about CSU or Vandy.

CSU disappointed me pretty bad week 1 (SD St) - but SD St is good and all, I thought CSU just was quite visibly the worse team both physically, executionally and coaching wise, I thought CSU would win and the game wasn't close...I think CSU might lose 10 out of 10 vs South Dakota. One thing I can say that I like (or did like) about CSU is their DL and a step further, I think their run D and front 7 is pretty good oveall...not that it showed up vs South Dakota St, but it should have. Personnel wise, they have players in those defensive groups who should hold up. So that is something if I was going to back CSU that I would look for giving me hope they will compete. What I don't like is their QB, their coach and now their #1 WR is out...and South Dakota St bottled up David Bailey like a top flight ACC D would - so their run blocking was concerning as well (which it shouldn't be but they aren't as good as they should be on OL). Tell me you like CSU and I will tell you their run D should give you hope.

If we were going to try and find something "good" about Vandy what is it? Physically not situationally? Last week I said I thought their QB (he's had some 300y games so some level of competency) and receivers could find some success vs CSU (CSU pass D is their worst aspect of D). If we assume that Seals and the Vandy receivers are somewhat capable, is that enough this week vs Stanford? I don't think so. Tell me you like Vandy this week and I don't think I have anything to offer, but maybe somebody else could. Vandy is only tempting to play ATS because of the spread they are throwing out there, but I can't bet Vandy to win and Stanford to lose to them and I'm not sue I even want to take them ATS, but might have to do the hold my nose thing.

Not that I want to talk anybody out of anything, just looking for something on-field, personnel, coaching edge or some roster or style of play strength justification - it's hard pressed to do that with Vandy.
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Excellent stuff as always!
 
JROCK1966 said:
Who is SVP??
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He is not always the most 'sound' picker, but he is a funny, liked and longtime ESPN personality. Scott Van Pelt, that probably sounds more familiar now. Most people refer to him as SVP. He frequently will take ugly dogs and then deadpan it and say just because that's what we do.
 
I'm kind of dipping my toe back in on Louisiana Tech, but I am a little scared of the match up vs SMU.

LaTech D last week was not good and LT nearly lost to SE La...even though my limited FCS knowledge tells me SE La is pretty good and has the Walter Payton spring award winner at QB and a powerful O...seeing LT allow 609 TY and 7ypp is alarming. I could say they had a hangover from the Miss St loss and maybe the team wasn't as sharp as they could've been. I could say that. I could also say the LT D was poor last year and this game is an indication that it will be poor again.

SMU is going to be a challenge and brings a much stronger rushing game threat than the first two LT opponents.

When I look at SMU last week, they held North Texas to just 12 points, sounds good right? But North Texas has over 500y! Not often will you see a team have that kind of yardage and only score 12 points (NT 2 FGs from inside the 5 and 0-4 4th down all in SMU territory). SMU O played an uneven game themselves so they come in here not off their best effort.

I probably shouldn't worry about this, but things like this stick in my head. Sonny Dykes took over SMU in the bowl game of the 2017 season if you remember. And if you remember they faced LaTech and LT just kicked the shit out of them 51-10 and benefited from 6 turnovers. I mention this because while I remember it, I think Dykes also remembers it and while it might play no role in the game, I also think it might be a case where if Dykes is in a position or his team is capable, he would love to return the favor (Dykes was also once the HC at LaTech). That is a psychological angle that works against me some, but again, it might not matter.

When picking LaTech 2 weeks ago vs Miss St I cited Skip Holtz' ability to pull some upsets, he nearly knocked off Miss St week 1. Holtz has 5 wins as a dog in his last 9 tries vs non-P5 teams including win over UAB last year as DD dog and beat NTex as TD dog the year NT won 9 games.

It's going to take a little bit of faith that this LT team is actually better with more potential than last week's game vs SE La showed. Anyone have opinion on this game?
 
Another one I like who appears to be the inferior team is Southern Miss taking on Troy. Troy is just further along in their systems and roster strength than Southern Miss is who is in game 3 of the new coaching staff and trying to figure out what pieces fit where and how to use them all.

Southern Miss' week 1 game was a 7-31 loss at South Alabama. USA was also changing coaches and SM and USA should be closer than that score showed. Well, they actually were closer than the 24 point loss that showed on the scoreboard. TY in that game was 300-258, good in the sense that USA didn't necessarily dominate them, but bad in the fact that USM only gained 258 yards! USM did turnover on downs and fumble inside the USA 10 yard line!

I really liked Southern Miss last week after some public comments from new HC Will Hall (former Tulane and Memphis OC) about how much pressure and how much of a failure he felt like so far. In the home opener I felt confident they were going to give it their all vs Grambling...and they only led 10-0 HT...but did blow them out as expected in the 2nd H.

Clearly, Southern Miss is still figuring it out. Troy has Missouri transfer QB and is in off a tight loss vs Liberty. Troy did gain only 232 total yards vs Liberty, Troy was sacked 5x! Liberty is pretty good as we know. Troy is breaking in a mostly new receiver group (3 of top 4 LY gone) and with a first time starting QB there they do have some learning curve bumps too.

Some QB question for USM, Lowe had an ankle or something 1st H last week and Keyes played the 2nd H. Not sure which one gives USM a better chance, Lowe appears to be a better passer with Keyes being more dangerous runner. Eagles do get third leading returning WR back (Robinson) for some more weapons out there (4 of top 5 receivers from LY return). Plenty of experience on the OL although their new blocking schemes have been a little hit and miss. When they get it right Gore is plenty capable.

Troy D did have 10 TFLs last week vs Liberty and occasionally made some things tough on them. Troy is road favorite for a reason, they should win. Southern Miss could win because they have the pieces to do so, I just worry some if they are ready to win vs a quality team.

I don't know if anyone can tell, but sometimes I'm figuring out how much I like the game as I'm typing.
 
I feel more confident with Utah State. Fall camp reports can be a little too optimistic at times, but I had posted that I liked what I was reading on them and if things go right, if they survive their tough games their over win total looked attainable. Well, they actually have opened 2-0 with the win last week over respectable North Dakota. In a season where several FCS programs have knocked off FBS, I was a little worried about USU and they didn't get off to a great start but settled in, adjusted to what ND was doing and won big pulling away in the 2nd H.

Sometimes you get a feel for a team and I think I might have that with Utah State having won on their ML week 1 vs Wazzou and also backed them last week.

I believe many people still look at Utah State as last year's Utah State when there is actually very little resemblance. The local paper in Colorado Springs seems to be taking Utah St for granted, rather than acknowledging this year is a different team they point out AF has outscored USU 66-14 the last 2 seasons while running down the softer part of AF's upcoming schedule. AF athletic department tweeted out a 35-7 image, the score of last year's game, which I don't know why they think that is significant to promote this week's game, kind of shows lack of respect for opponent. This Utah St team has a new coach, new QB and new attitude.

Air Force may also be feeling a little too good about themselves posting a 35-14 win over Lafayette and dominating win at Navy. Can't read too much into FCS games, but I will say that North Dakota who USU beat 48-24 is good, Lafayette is not good. The AF D really did a number on Navy O...but same time, AF only accumulated 225 total yards vs a Navy team that gained 1 first down over the 1st 3 Q. I know option teams typically do well defending the other team's offense, but 225 total yards for AF is pretty low. AF after Navy is 2-3 ATS and have lost straight up as a favorite 2 of last 4 post Navy (-7.5 at San Jose and -11.5 at Wyoming).

USU transfer QB Logan Bonner is the third highest rated passer in the MWC (ahead of Carson Strong) while they still sprinkle in a little Peasley at QB who is just 50% (only 16att) but has run for over 100y in two games. Bonner came over with new HC Blake Anderson and has passed for over 3000 career yards with a strong 30-9 ratio there.

AF naturally leads the MWC in rushing ypg, but USU isn't far behind at #3 219.5 and ran for 222 on Wazzou. It's going to be a test for the USU D who has not faced much of a rushing team yet, at the same time, this game is going to be an equally challenging test for AF who have yet to see any kind of QB or skill players yet this season. USU has newcomer Justin Rice at LB and guy is just a stud, of course he is already leading the team in tackles. He has been All Conference everywhere he has played, 1st Tm MWC when at Fresno, 1st Tm Sun Belt when at Arkansas State and last week was named MWC D POW. Transfers on the DL Joyner (orig Miami Fl) and DL Vaughns (orig Texas) are having an impact.

Utah State beating Washington State week 1 with all the unknowns was a little bit of a surprise. Now that I know more about them, frankly, I expect them to win Saturday.
 
Some of the big dogs that maybe, just maybe...anytime you get over 20 points it is a pretty unlikely upset, but it is fun to dream. Let's see if there are any angles here.

NIU - no
Uconn - no

UMass - yes! Maybe! Already posted about it somewhere on page 1. The freshman is starting for UMass. It's about +900 right now.

Nebraska - no

New Mexico - yes! Oh man, would this be something. I know Gonzales and Long know how to make a defensive gameplan here, but do they have the Lobos to do it with? Doubtful. Consider this, Texas A&M only led Kent St 10-0 at halftime week 1. So week 1. ok, but Kent St not known for defense. 2nd H aTm did what a P5 team should do vs a lesser opponent outscored them 31-7 2nd H. So, you know, I'm talking about an almost 30 point dog here. Win? That Terry Wilson led Lobo O...probably the best offense a New Mexico team has had for several years. Last time these two played was 2017 and they lost 14-55, but NM was awful team that year who lost 7 straight games. This NM team is actually on a 4 game winning streak! Really the aTm O has been rough, very rough. The OL, not good. Aggies should be able to just run the ball every play and win, but yes I do believe in miracles. ML all over the board anywhere from +1500-3000

GT - I don't think so, but I haven't seen Clemson play one snap this season

Kent State - yes! I just got down saying Kent St D isn't good, and they aren't. Another game where a team could in theory be able to run the ball every down and win if they want. Not a good matchup for Kent vs Iowa, but neither was Kent vs Texas A&M and they held up, for a little bit. Iowa off two pretty important and tough games, Big Ten game to open against a team ranked higher than them and ofcourse off CyHawk trophy game. Normally Iowa schedules lesser opponents after ISU and normally takes care of business, except the year they lost to North Dakota St (2016 NDSt lost FCS Title game). The last 3 non-P5 opponents Iowa has faced after ISU have been won by a combined 117-31 (NTex, UNI, MTSU) - oh boy. What am I doing here saying why I'm saying Kent will win or lose? Kent St to win the game is an unbelievably unlikely upset. But because sometimes they do happen and I like trying to pick out ahead of time when they do, I will put a little something on it. About +1000 right now.

Tulsa - no, maybe if OSU had won last week, but no not now
Georgia Southern - no not for me
Old Dominion - no I don't know enough about them
FIU - no, I actually might like TT
South Carolina - no
Rice - no
UNLV - no

So I might have a little something something on UMass, NewMex and Kent as my big dogs.

Never mind the little MLs, let's take it up a notch? Who's got the big dogs?
 
i have kent st with the points on my list of leans so i will look closer at that one.. kinda think this the week aggies put together a big effort, they gotta clean things up before they go into conf play or they doomed! maybe they just not as good as we thought tho?
 
2daBank said:
who is umass playing this week?
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They are home vs EMich


2daBank said:
i have kent st with the points on my list of leans so i will look closer at that one.. kinda think this the week aggies put together a big effort, they gotta clean things up before they go into conf play or they doomed! maybe they just not as good as we thought tho?
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It's not the best situation to go against them off the CU game. Ags know they need to pick it up. NewMex appears to be improved. Not improved as much as they would need to be to do the impossible. Just having some fun but I will risk $10 each on those.
 
s--k said:
They are home vs EMich



It's not the best situation to go against them off the CU game. Ags know they need to pick it up. NewMex appears to be improved. Not improved as much as they would need to be to do the impossible. Just having some fun but I will risk $10 each on those.
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right on,, im still thinking bout 50 or something on arky st but dunno if im burning money? lol.. think we will know really quickly either way,, i dont like lake at all so i could def see this spiraling if arky st is able to come in and put up a few quick scores.. of course as you mentioned udub might just be able to push around a crappy arky st d.
 
2daBank said:
i wanted to like utah st but last years game vs air force doesnt inspire much confidence,,
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True but different variables this year.


2daBank said:
right on,, im still thinking bout 50 or something on arky st but dunno if im burning money? lol.. think we will know really quickly either way,, i dont like lake at all so i could def see this spiraling if arky st is able to come in and put up a few quick scores.. of course as you mentioned udub might just be able to push around a crappy arky st d.
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Yeah, it's tough to just think a team can flip a switch and turn it on because it isn't that easy. ArkSt is unsettled at QB. One week Hatcher is the guy and the next week Blackman is the guy. You will need whoever starts to be good from jump. I like Hatcher better but Blackman surprised last week 2nd H.
 
s--k said:
True but different variables this year.




Yeah, it's tough to just think a team can flip a switch and turn it on because it isn't that easy. ArkSt is unsettled at QB. One week Hatcher is the guy and the next week Blackman is the guy. You will need whoever starts to be good from jump. I like Hatcher better but Blackman surprised last week 2nd H.
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i want to say it not exactly a unsettled thing at qb, i think they have went with a 2 qb approach the last few seasons, i dont really like it but guess it works out for them? i suppose the one upside to that is when one isnt playing well they can go to the other and it not a shock of any kind since that how they always operate. i still think it better to have 1 guy! what the saying "if ya have 2 qbs you really dont have any"? something like that..
 
You are right in that it's a new staff except for OC so I might've thought it was more a prior HC philosophy but maybe OC likes it too. Last year it worked as both Bonner (now at USU) and Hatcher had their moments. This year though they brought in James Blackman and to their credit it's worked in both games. The QB in the 2nd H has done better both games. This UW D though will be tougher. I can't take ArkSt even though some things point that way. UW O should find their way here and UW D I expect to show up. They have P12 Cal opener on deck, they must get it figured out here to build on for a run in P12. I'm sure coaches are still selling the kids winning division and league. So normally this would be sandwich game (Cal won last 2), now it's a full focus game. Assuming they aren't demoralized to the point of not focusing.
 
s--k said:
You are right in that it's a new staff except for OC so I might've thought it was more a prior HC philosophy but maybe OC likes it too. Last year it worked as both Bonner (now at USU) and Hatcher had their moments. This year though they brought in James Blackman and to their credit it's worked in both games. The QB in the 2nd H has done better both games. This UW D though will be tougher. I can't take ArkSt even though some things point that way. UW O should find their way here and UW D I expect to show up. They have P12 Cal opener on deck, they must get it figured out here to build on for a run in P12. I'm sure coaches are still selling the kids winning division and league. So normally this would be sandwich game (Cal won last 2), now it's a full focus game. Assuming they aren't demoralized to the point of not focusing.
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i thought same until did some reading last week and saw what you did with holdover OC.. udub defense could absolutely be too much for their line to block. im def worried the huskies offense could really have their way, i do feel like if Lake is able to get them focused they should win by margin.,. that said the 1st time i heard lake my initial thought was "this guy a clown, i think they made a mistake with him", lol.. really need arky st to come out and help put more doubt in their heads. kinda a tough offense to prepare for if they not focusing in practice. even as bad the arky st defense is if the offense can get me 20 think 17.5 be a tough cover.. if it is close think i would regret not having a taste the ml. it certainly one these game where my bet could look really dumb really fast..
 
ULM is favored I think, that means that Jackson State and Coach Prime are ML potential

JSU (2-0) is seeking its first win against an FBS program since at least 1978, according to NCAA.com, when it faces ULM (0-1) at 7 p.m. Saturday in Monroe. ULM has lost 12 straight games, tied for the longest losing streak in the nation, and Jackson State has emerged as one of the premier programs at Historically Black Colleges and Universities.
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sports.yahoo.com

Deion Sanders not buying Jackson State's role in next matchup: 'We get paid to get beat, right?'

Jackson State football coach Deion Sanders said he's not a fan of the losing that often comes with college football's "guarantee game" model.
sports.yahoo.com sports.yahoo.com

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Adding....3, 4, & 5-teamer RRs....Risking $18.24 ($1.14 Each Parlay):

To Win $11,212.24:
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To Win $3,831.10:
parlay5.jpg

Ugly looking for sure!! :oops:

BOLTA!!
 
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s--k said:
ULM is favored I think, that means that Jackson State and Coach Prime are ML potential


sports.yahoo.com

Deion Sanders not buying Jackson State's role in next matchup: 'We get paid to get beat, right?'

Jackson State football coach Deion Sanders said he's not a fan of the losing that often comes with college football's "guarantee game" model.
sports.yahoo.com sports.yahoo.com

View attachment 58789
Click to expand...
Yep….I’m eyeing this game. Gotta see how I do in the earlier games. BM +5 and BoL +4….both have no ML……
 
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