ML Dogs Week 2 Edition

2daBank said:
gotcha. Yea, never have. It is odd since I’m all about interesting sayings to Describe teams and results!

I’m not real confident in that game, line keeps getting bet up, if I can get a +10 don’t think I can pass on appy state. Some teams im confident will bounce back after a ass kicking or just a loss, not so sure bout canes? 50/50 on whether they play angry or demoralized? If app st comes out and punches them in the mouth I have a feeling the wheels might fall off! App st certainly the kind of team who could do just that!
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Can't disagree. Complete layoff for me.
 
KJ said:
Bunch of sandwich games this week, love the card knock on wood
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lol. Figures! It not necessarily a bad thing that I don’t like card as much. More times than not the tougher a card looks the better I do. It those cards that just look fantastic when i struggle. Lol
 
The last Miami - App State game was 2016 just to clear that up.
 
s--k said:
I kinda want to think Toledo is capable of giving ND a game. The ND OL that lost 3 NFL draft picks plus a 4th who was an UFA player didn't look so good vs FSU. That TE Mayer would be hard to deal with. FSU run game really gashed them...suppose nobody on that team is happy with that performance and this would be their game to atone for that.

Feel like I have lost a handle on this Toledo team. On paper they appear strong. Not sure what I think of their QB. I know Koback, he's a good RB. Phil Steele likes their WRs, none of them ever left a memory with me like Toledo WRs of years past. Phil Steele likes their OL and calls their DL and DBs the best in the MAC while LB unit comes in #2. They always routinely land the some of the best recruiting classes in the MAC.

The problem is they don't really play that well all the time, even in the MAC. They should be better but are always dropping games they shouldn't. And vs Power 5 and good nonconference teams they don't do well...even though they should.

Guess I'm talking about it to see if anyone else has an opinion. I'm like, if Toledo were to beat Notre Dame I wouldn't at all be surprised, but at the same time, I can't tell anyone how or why it might happen. ND getting whipped at the LOS again would have to be it?
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I really wasn’t sure Irish deserved their ranking coming into the season, I’m still not but gotta say one the biggest concerns for me was qb. I thought a kid from wiscy would be a game manager At best and thought Irish would need more, Coan looked to be more tho! Like wiscy might be better off if he was running their offense!! I can’t imagine Irish get beat up at Los again. You gotta believe they will make a concerned effort to get Williams going this week and a Toledo team who gave up 147 on the ground to Norfolk state (in fairness 52 came on 1 play) seems like a prime candidate for him to bust out for 200. Certainly could see a cover but I trust Irish enough that I used their ml in the 1st fav parlay I started for the week.
 
I agree with whomever mentioned we might be giving csu to hard a time despite the fact South Dakota st did beat the brakes off them. Just think South Dakota st was a team a lot of fbs schools woulda struggled with, the jackrabbits were flying all over the field. No interest in backing vandy.
 
S-k, concerning the Irish game dont you get the feel it one these games where if the dog covers it should fly over?
 
^ The UAB comparison actually isn't horrible though because the quality level UAB plays D at, one can see what this team Miami is capable of vs a high level Group of 5 D (495 yards, 25 first downs).
 
I keep getting hung up on Vandy. Man I know their talent is down, the lowest I can every remember I think. And while I do like some of the spots on CSU (except I hate their QB and coach continues to prove he is a bonehead), man...does Vandy not compete better in this game? Seals had a few 300y games last year. Secondary the most vulnerable part of CSU D. A couple Vandy receivers decent. OL is big problem and DL is CSU strength (in theory, not in reality vs South Dakota St).

I just can't find many reasons to make the case for Vandy, but an average to below average MWC team laying 7 to a bad SEC team still seems wrong and Vandy actually winning could happen, but how do they do it? Cenetio continually sucking is the only one I got.
 
Texas / Arkansas is a tossup and I'll be surprised if the latter doesn't win. I was thrilled with the LaLa result and love what Sarkisian is bringing to the table - last week was a crisp and well-coached performance. Something we've rarely seen in Austin in the last 10 years. But I'm not sure this (young) Texas team is ready to play in a hostile road environment. The players said last weekend they were a bit taken aback playing at home in front of a big crowd. Fayettville at night? Horns have better talent and coaching but there's more to the equation.

Hope I'm wrong.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Texas / Arkansas is a tossup and I'll be surprised if the latter doesn't win. I was thrilled with the LaLa result and love what Sarkisian is bringing to the table - last week was a crisp and well-coached performance. Something we've rarely seen in Austin in the last 10 years. But I'm not sure this (young) Texas team is ready to play in a hostile road environment. The players said last weekend they were a bit taken aback playing at home in front of a big crowd. Fayettville at night? Horns have better talent and coaching but there's more to the equation.

Hope I'm wrong.
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i just dont think this a good matchup for hogs,, they dependent on that qb running around and i think texas new scheme was designed with stopping running qbs in mind,, the dc has a pretty good history vs these kinds of qbs.. love the way sark got that bad ass rb the ball all over the field!! im not gonna lay it but i do like your horns,, point of the road game is well taken and why i wont be playing them,. the under kinda interesting to me as i feel like if you right and hogs do win defense gonna have to be the driving force cause i do have faith horns defense will keep jefferson in the pocket or really limit him when he tries to run. i think texas biggest problem is gonna be pass protection, the little i saw last week the young qb was facing a lot of pressure! now to your point about the road they will have to get off at the snap and block without being able to hear!!
 
2daBank said:
i just dont think this a good matchup for hogs,, they dependent on that qb running around and i think texas new scheme was designed with stopping running qbs in mind,, the dc has a pretty good history vs these kinds of qbs.. love the way sark got that bad ass rb the ball all over the field!! im not gonna lay it but i do like your horns,, point of the road game is well taken and why i wont be playing them,. the under kinda interesting to me as i feel like if you right and hogs do win defense gonna have to be the driving force cause i do have faith horns defense will keep jefferson in the pocket or really limit him when he tries to run. i think texas biggest problem is gonna be pass protection, the little i saw last week the young qb was facing a lot of pressure! now to your point about the road they will have to get off at the snap and block without being able to hear!!
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This is another one when regarding value, last Friday I took Ark +3.5, after games Sat I took +6 on Sunday, now at 7. Perception on one game shifted this line heavily.
 
KJ said:
This is another one when regarding value, last Friday I took Ark +3.5, after games Sat I took +6 on Sunday, now at 7. Perception on one game shifted this line heavily.
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I was surprised you liked the look ahead at 3.5. I remember I guessed it be texas -7 (although I wasn’t positive it was a hogs home game), so my perception didn’t change much. as I said I think horns defense is a bad matchup for Jefferson. That said who knows how Card will handle 1st road game? Hogs gonna have to get penetration and obviously they gotta keep Robison in check especially when sark puts him out in slot, thought he was clever how used him last week. I played under 56.5. I think hogs have to keep this lower scoring to have a chance cause I don’t trust Jefferson to put up points with his arm all that much and don’t believe he have success as a runner. In a perfect world hogs keep everything in front of them and force horns to settle when they get into scoring range, offensively they gonna have to get 100+ from rb and think they need to force a turnover or 2. Keep it in the low to mid 20s and we both be happy.
 
Weird...found two games where the dog has a higher Sagarin rating than the fav....N. Illinois is rated 12 spots higher than Wyoming but is dogged by a TD.....Buffalo has the largest spread at 2 TDs but they sit 37 spots higher than the Huskers....what to make of that?

:popcorn:
 
JROCK1966 said:
Weird...found two games where the dog has a higher Sagarin rating than the fav....N. Illinois is rated 12 spots higher than Wyoming but is dogged by a TD.....Buffalo has the largest spread at 2 TDs but they sit 37 spots higher than the Huskers....what to make of that?

:popcorn:
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Buffalo is a bit of a mystery to me. I was down on them entering 2021 with the late coaching change and some roster attrition. They still have some good quality players and if the new coaches run it right, they could be a threat to a poor Nebraska team. I'm not playing anything there.

Northern Illinois has my interest. Wyoming O is pretty well limited to just effectively running the ball. Being one dimensional should help NIU, although they let GT run fro bunches of yards last week. NIU is not as bad as predicted this year, seeing some growth on that team. Not sure they are good enough to beat a physical and solid Wyoming team, but also don't think Wyoming should be laying 7 to them on the road. Wyoming has been horrible on the road. They lost 3 of their 4 road games last year including losses vs New Mex and CSU. In 2019 they lost 5 of their 6 road games, the only win was 23-14 over Texas State. Craig Bohl is just 10-29 straight up on the road with Wyoming!
 
Big line in ABQ for a rivalry game:

2019 NM -4.5 55-52
2018 NM -3 42-25
2017 NMSU +7 30-28
2016 NMSU +12.5 32-31
2015 NM -12.5 38-29
2014 NM -3 38-35
2013 NM -11 66-17
2012 NM +6.5 27-14
2011 NMSU +1 42-28

New Mexico won 6 of last 9 but just 3-5-1 ATS. All told, 4 upsets in the last 9

Historically speaking, today's line is huge. It's the biggest line since 2005 when New Mexico was -21.5 home (won 38-21, Aggies 0-12 that year, Lobos were 8-5 and MWC champs that year).
 
2daBank said:
Played this one....3, 4, & 5-teamer RR


It’s crazy owls are so bad Akron might win a game! Lol. Gl today
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That's what I'm thinking.... @s--k said in another thread that finding a bad favorite is half the battle....Temple absolutely qualifies as a bad favorite. The trick here, of course, is that Akron is pitiful LOL....the Zips have to see this as a game they can win though, correct?? They should be at least somewhat motivated, correct?

:popcorn:
 
I might guess that Akron will be ok defensively, which is almost never the case. My worry is the Temple D which I still believe is pretty solid. If Dollard was still on Akron's team I would be on them. Without him they just don't have anyone to hang their hat on. If QB Kato Nelson has a big day, Zips have a shot.
 
s--k said:
Big line in ABQ for a rivalry game:

2019 NM -4.5 55-52
2018 NM -3 42-25
2017 NMSU +7 30-28
2016 NMSU +12.5 32-31
2015 NM -12.5 38-29
2014 NM -3 38-35
2013 NM -11 66-17
2012 NM +6.5 27-14
2011 NMSU +1 42-28

New Mexico won 6 of last 9 but just 3-5-1 ATS. All told, 4 upsets in the last 9

Historically speaking, today's line is huge. It's the biggest line since 2005 when New Mexico was -21.5 home (won 38-21, Aggies 0-12 that year, Lobos were 8-5 and MWC champs that year).
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I still don't know specifically how NMSU scored 10 points in the 1h against SDSU, guessing something flukish but I wouldn't be surprised if they get blanked today and in the win column on the season. UTEP holding them to 3 pts tells you everything. Will certainly be surprised if they win a game this season.
 
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s--k said:
Big line in ABQ for a rivalry game:

2019 NM -4.5 55-52
2018 NM -3 42-25
2017 NMSU +7 30-28
2016 NMSU +12.5 32-31
2015 NM -12.5 38-29
2014 NM -3 38-35
2013 NM -11 66-17
2012 NM +6.5 27-14
2011 NMSU +1 42-28

New Mexico won 6 of last 9 but just 3-5-1 ATS. All told, 4 upsets in the last 9

Historically speaking, today's line is huge. It's the biggest line since 2005 when New Mexico was -21.5 home (won 38-21, Aggies 0-12 that year, Lobos were 8-5 and MWC champs that year).
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I like my Lobos this year, but like last week, I'm not laying 3 tds with them.

This year feels like an under game but historically this game soars over.
 
s--k said:
Big line in ABQ for a rivalry game:

2019 NM -4.5 55-52
2018 NM -3 42-25
2017 NMSU +7 30-28
2016 NMSU +12.5 32-31
2015 NM -12.5 38-29
2014 NM -3 38-35
2013 NM -11 66-17
2012 NM +6.5 27-14
2011 NMSU +1 42-28

New Mexico won 6 of last 9 but just 3-5-1 ATS. All told, 4 upsets in the last 9

Historically speaking, today's line is huge. It's the biggest line since 2005 when New Mexico was -21.5 home (won 38-21, Aggies 0-12 that year, Lobos were 8-5 and MWC champs that year).
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Terry Wilson still sucks...he is not calm at all in the pocket, can't handle the pressure, and continually makes poor reads as a result. This is not coming from me....I recall where I learned this was on the Ky message boards, there was another dude (I have long since forgotten his handle) who had a high football IQ would post video analysis of many Ky football plays with Terry Wilson at the helm. This dude would dissect and show exactly why Terry Wilson sucked...it was amazing...he continually would make bad reads and play after play would blow up as a result. I know you posted previously that it's not SEC quality defenses he's playing against which of course is true...but I still am of the opinion he's gonna fuck it up for UNM somehow.

PS - NMSt is on my ML list (FWIW) for an evening play today if I can make it that far today...;)
 
JROCK1966 said:
Weird...found two games where the dog has a higher Sagarin rating than the fav....N. Illinois is rated 12 spots higher than Wyoming but is dogged by a TD.....Buffalo has the largest spread at 2 TDs but they sit 37 spots higher than the Huskers....what to make of that?

:popcorn:
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I played NIU. Let down spot, I get it. I thought flukey win vs Ga Tech. Offense went 3 and out 8 of 12 drives.

But I'm not laying 7 on Wyo away from Laramie.
 
KJ said:
I still don't know specifically how NMSU scored 10 points in the 1h against SDSU, guessing something flukish but I wouldn't be surprised if they get blanked today and in the win column on the season. UTEP holding them to 3 pts tells you everything. Will certainly be surprised if they win a game this season.
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NMSt outgained Aztecs 246-115 in the 1st H
 
s--k said:
NMSt outgained Aztecs 246-115 in the 1st H
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Just want to know how, I didn't watch a second of it and there isn't much chance SDSU gives up 246 in a half again this season, there has to be a reason that a malnourished NMSU actually did that
 
NMSU wasn't terrible vs UTEP. They had a poor call on a TD ruled OOB that it really looked like receiver got foot in bounds, but replay upheld the onfield no TD decision. Then they had illegal downfield on a nice design long TD play negated. So they were close to having 2 TDs vs UTEP. I myself did not watch the 1st H vs San Diego State either.
 
I had some wagers on games like Arkansas, Stanford, Oregon and Vandy with the spread - but it's weird the adreneline of a ML win is more than just an ATS win. An ATS win is like 'ok that's good' and a ML win is exhilarating and fun and hard and feels rewarding. I decided a long time ago that I can't play the ML for every dog I bet, because I bet 21 dogs yesterday so I guess that is just part of the choices.
 
s--k said:
I had some wagers on games like Arkansas, Stanford, Oregon and Vandy with the spread - but it's weird the adreneline of a ML win is more than just an ATS win. An ATS win is like 'ok that's good' and a ML win is exhilarating and fun and hard and feels rewarding. I decided a long time ago that I can't play the ML for every dog I bet, because I bet 21 dogs yesterday so I guess that is just part of the choices.
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All of this. ML Dogs in CFB probably hottest thread on CTG. It’s the greatest
 
twinkie13 said:
…….tell me someone had it
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a few of us had it in the underdog contest...I had it in a couple of my unpublished parlays but didn't matter as the other teams in same parlays lost....as far as anyone directly winning money off of it I do not know of any... :(
 
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