ML Dogs Week 1

Ordinarily I would have a moderate play against Fresno in this spot, but the fact that UConn cancelled its season last year introduces a number of unknowns that I will have to look into.
 
Ordinarily I would have a moderate play against Fresno in this spot, but the fact that UConn cancelled its season last year introduces a number of unknowns that I will have to look into.
Think Frez scores 50+ and starting from there
 
MLs are out at BOL...Here are the +200 or more dogs that I think show the most promise...

Illinois +225 vs Nebraska
Temple +450 at Rutgers
ECU +335 vs App
Charlotte +215 vs Duke
ULL +270 at Texas
Oregon State +235 at Purdue

I won't be on any of these as I am not really a dog ML player, but I enjoy reading the discussion and wouldn't be surprised if 1-2 of these hit. What do you guys think?
 
I think Illinois could beat Nebraska week 0 and then UTSA could upset them week 1 (+195).

Having a hard time really falling in love with any, but I am a day of game player so I have lots of time to develop some picks.

Duke looks vulnerable, line has dropped below 7 now. I'd worry that Duke has a similar advantage in the trenches like they did last year. Otherwise, Duke's O doesn't strike much fear into opponents.

Michigan State definitely still on my radar, but odds suck now...+150.

FAU has me thinking a little bit as a big dog (+24.5 at UF)...need to see if I can justify that at all. Seems unlikely, which is the way I like it! If they can just get some QB play this year! The D might be able to hold up their end.

I like what I have been reading out of Utah State's camp, I hesitate with a tough early schedule and that they might put together a nice run later in the year and it is too much to expect them to fire on all cylinders week 1 vs a P5 opponent for an upset. Washington State has a few quality players sprinkled throughout the OL and Defense, but they are pretty weak units relatively speaking especially on D. Utah St is a dog I could be on and might put a little on the ML just in case (+605). That is a leap of faith with all new coaching staff, but there is familiarity with some transfers following Anderson and other coaches over. Like FAU, they were dreadful on offense last year - although this year I think a lot of things will be better for them there. USU Defense is more of the concern in this one.

There really isn't a ton that interests me week 0 / week 1 otherwise.
 
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I think Illinois could beat Nebraska week 0 and then UTSA could upset them week 1 (+195).

Having a hard time really falling in love with any, but I am a day of game player so I have lots of time to develop some picks.

Duke looks vulnerable, line has dropped below 7 now. I'd worry that Duke has a similar advantage in the trenches like they did last year. Otherwise, Duke's O doesn't strike much fear into opponents.

Michigan State definitely still on my radar, but odds suck now...+150.

FAU has me thinking a little bit as a big dog (+24.5 at UF)...need to see if I can justify that at all. Seems unlikely, which is the way I like it! If they can just get some QB play this year! The D might be able to hold up their end.

I like what I have been reading out of Utah State's camp, I hesitate with a tough early schedule and that they might put together a nice run later in the year and it is too much to expect them to fire on all cylinders week 1 vs a P5 opponent for an upset. Washington State has a few quality players sprinkled throughout the OL and Defense, but they are pretty weak units relatively speaking especially on D. Utah St is a dog I could be on and might put a little on the ML just in case (+605). That is a leap of faith with all new coaching staff, but there is familiarity with some transfers following Anderson and other coaches over. Like FAU, they were dreadful on offense last year - although this year I think a lot of things will be better for them there. USU Defense is more of the concern in this one.

There really isn't a ton that interests me week 0 / week 1 otherwise.
Good stuff man…I pretty much just play favs as that is what has brought me success over the years, but every once in a while I find a dog here and there, and I agree with you about FAU as I have mentioned that I have had my eye on them for a while now.

The line has been static at 24.5 so been waiting before I pull the trigger, but if I play a dog in week 1 it will be those guys.
 
There is a site with a lot of FAU content. FAUowlsnest.com

Florida's D wasn't good last year. I might assume some improvement, but frankly Florida isn't a very scary 24 pt favorite.
 
I think those dastardly Cards from Loserville might deserve a closer look/discussion. Here's a few snippets of what PS says about them and Miss.

Cards O: "They have a veteran OLine and Satterfield's Offense always puts up big plays but they figure to take a step back in 2021."
Cards D: "This year 6 starters are back but lose 5 out of 7 of their top tacklers so they may take a step back."

PS says they will take a step back on both O & D but he also goes on to say for 2021: "they are poised to rebound and 5 of my 9 sets of power ratings call for them to get back to a bowl this year."

Miss O: "This year 8 starters are back but they do lose their top 2 receivers, but they will remain among the nation's best."
Miss D: "allowed 519 ypg and 38.3 ppg. This year 9 starters are back after their top tackler transferred to Kentucky. They will be much tougher in 2021."

Louisville gave up an average of 26ppg last year on defense....that's a 13ppg gap! How much can Miss close this gap?

I also found these trends that support a play on the Cards....

Lane Kiffin is 1-3 ATS on rest of more than 14 days....he is also 3-12-1 ATS in weeks 2 or less. That is easily THE worst trend I can remember seeing out of LK.
Scott Satterfield is 4-0 ATS on rest of greater than 14 days....he is also 9-4 ATS in weeks 2 or less.

:popcorn:
Better yet:

coach = Lane Kiffin and game number < 3 and -27 < line < 27
SU:8-6-0 (-4.64, 57.1%)Teaser Records
ATS:1-12-1 (-11.07, 7.7%) avg line: -6.4 +6: 4-10-0 (28.6%) -6: 1-13-0 (7.1%) +10: 6-8-0 (42.9%) -10: 0-14-0 (0.0%)
O/U:5-9-0 (-2.54, 35.7%) avg total: 58.5+6: 4-9-1 (30.8%) -6: 7-6-1 (53.8%) +10: 3-11-0 (21.4%) -10: 8-6-0 (57.1%)

Also:

coach = Lane Kiffin and game number < 6 and line < 22 and total > 44.5
SU:22-16-0 (3.37, 57.9%)Teaser Records
ATS:8-28-2 (-5.24, 22.2%) avg line: -8.6 +6: 21-16-1 (56.8%) -6: 6-32-0 (15.8%) +10: 24-14-0 (63.2%) -10: 4-34-0 (10.5%)
O/U:17-21-0 (0.49, 44.7%) avg total: 58.7+6: 12-25-1 (32.4%) -6: 24-13-1 (64.9%) +10: 10-28-0 (26.3%) -10: 26-12-0 (68.4%)
 
And Fresno.
And Hawaii. Hawaii (three times under Rolovich and once under Graham) has opened the last four seasons with an upset win (including three on the mainland):

2020 -- 34-19 +2.5 at Fres
2019 -- 45-38 +11 v. Ariz
2018 -- 43-34 +16 at CSU
2017 -- 38-35 +3 at Mass

Why not this year, with the big LSU game ahead of the Bruins?
 
I've always liked Satterfield when he was at Appy State and I don't think anyone should underestimate him. I read the Ky football forums a lot and his name is pretty much mud with all those UK fans (as one might expect) but I am not of that line of thinking. I think his offense will run the ball and own the clock to keep the Ole Miss offense off the field.....

:popcorn:
 
1st Lotto Ticket of the season.....

Big shoutout to @M.W. for this one:

2, 3, & 4-Teamer RR:
Hawaii +670
Rice +815
Fresno State +960
Louisville +295
Risking $44.00 (11 Parlays @ $4.00 Each) to Win $20,108.29


clover
 
Let’s go Illini!

could we get our 1st ML Dog Bark of the season
I'm just on the fence with Illinois....I would like to pull the trigger but my gut is telling me that this is a fairly big game for Scott Frost as a loss here might get his coaching seat quite hot....I'm thinking the Huskers will be ready. Am I wrong? Right?


:popcorn:
 
I'm just on the fence with Illinois....I would like to pull the trigger but my gut is telling me that this is a fairly big game for Scott Frost as a loss here might get his coaching seat quite hot....I'm thinking the Huskers will be ready. Am I wrong? Right?


:popcorn:

I think both teams will be ready. The whole must win thing, it's the same with bowl eligibility, it's way too simple to boil it down to "must win therefore bet". It is a huge game for Frost and Nebraska just because of everything, but it is an equally big game for Illinois for different reasons. Home opener in a new era, trying to turn the page and create something with a lot of experienced players who are hungry for success. This can be spun however we want. I do not think Frost prepared or is going to coach in this game any differently than if they had been to bowl games his previous seasons. He wants to win regardless, period. Does he want to win more because he might be on the hotseat? I'd hope not. His job is to win. He is a competitive person, competitive people want to win. Coaches want success, players want success and they want to win.

I don't feel like in total these teams are all that different. I don't know if Nebraska deserves to be a road favorite of this size, but I get that they are. I don't think Nebraska really has a bunch better players than Illinois does. Nebraska has better depth and will have a better grasp on their assignments, what their jobs and roles are and in some specific areas are more talented.

I think Nebraska wins this game, but I do expect it to be a competitive game.
 
I'm just on the fence with Illinois....I would like to pull the trigger but my gut is telling me that this is a fairly big game for Scott Frost as a loss here might get his coaching seat quite hot....I'm thinking the Huskers will be ready. Am I wrong? Right?


:popcorn:
I'm on Nebraska thinking if Frost loses this one its over for him. I still believe he can coach and he has to know how big of a game this is for him. Then again I'm always wrong so fade away.
 
1st Lotto Ticket of the season.....

Big shoutout to @M.W. for this one:

2, 3, & 4-Teamer RR:
Hawaii +670
Rice +815
Fresno State +960
Louisville +295
Risking $44.00 (11 Parlays @ $4.00 Each) to Win $20,108.29


clover

I might throw SUU, SJSU, UC-Davis, C Ark, and a couple others into the mix. Best of luck -- I'll be on all those as well.
 
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Wut the hell....I'm gambling this week. Adding:

Lotto Ticket #2

3, 4, 5, & 6-teamer RR:

Illinois +205
Hawaii +670
UL-Laf +270
Utah State +570
FSU +250
SJ State +560
Risking $42.00 ($1 each on 42 Parlays) to Win $43,139.25


1630171197997.png
 
I have a lot of interest in UTSA this week. In the summer looking at the schedules the game immediately jumped out. I did expect Nebraska to win last week, but acknowledged it could be a competitive game and could see Illinois winning week 0 and then losing week 1 to UTSA. So the first part has happened.

Now, this isn't a situational let down angle, or look ahead angle. Purely speaking Illinois still is not that good and UTSA is coming.

The UTSA offense bottomed out in 2018. That opened the door for true freshman to contribute immediately in 2019 showing an uptick in the offense. They went from 14ppg to 20ppg 2018 to 2019 with the likes of Sincere McCormick, Zakhari Franklin, Joshua Cephus breaking onto the scene around a revolving door of injured QBs and young OL. It's almost hard to believe that a similar jump was seen from 2019 to 2020 with a new coaching staff with the lack of conventional offseason camps and practices last year. But UTSA did improve similarly again on offense going from 20ppg to 28ppg. 8 of their 11 starters on O were recognized as All Conf players last year. It is now one of the more experienced OLs in the country (120 starts), talented skill players entering year 3, some untapped potential at TE and hopefully some healthy QBs. QB health has been an ongoing issue and limiting factor for UTSA for years now. Atleast right now for game #1, we can say, they are healthy and that is all we need vs Illinois. Frank Harris, while beloved by fans and team mates, isn't the best QB in CUSA and at times leaves some plays on the table, but when he gets going he keys an offense that, at times, can be explosive. When he is not, they can he frustrating.

The offense is one year ahead of the defense. The Roadrunner D bottomed out in 2019, the final year of the Frank Wilson era. Holding teams below 35 points was a challenge vs just about anyone. It was equally shocking that again, first year coaching staff in the covid year was able to get this defense to perform at the level it did. They cut their ppg allowed from 34 to 25.7. They cut their total yards allowed from 429 to 383 trimming a full yard off the ypp and rushing ypc allowed. The pass D and sack numbers mostly stayed the same. For their efforts 7 of the 11 starters were recognized with some sort of All Conf recognition. And that doesn't include impact freshman LB Jamal Ligon who burst on the scene as their #3 tackler and sack leader. The front 7 should continue their improvement vs the run. The secondary needs to get better. Expectations are that it will. CB Tariq Woolen (made Bruce Feldman's freak list at #6) switched from WR to CB last year and also played part of the season injured. Now healthy and gaining a year of starting CB under his belt, he can use that experience to go with his incredibly dynamic athletic ability (4.34 40 time and 11' 5" high jump). The other 2 primary CBs showed ability, Robinson was a Fr who started last year. S Wisdom leads the unit and is PFF's 73rd best rated draft prospect. UTSA added 6'5" Clifford Chattman to the already veteran safety unit. If this defense can show similar improvement in year 2 of this coaching staff it showed in year 1, it will be a tough D.

Special teams are special for UTSA. They have excellent K Duplesis and P Dean. Dean was a 4th Tm AA!

So this UTSA team is one to keep an eye on.

We saw Illinois last week, and honestly, I didn't make much of their win. Nebraska appeared to be the better team throughout the 1st H yet in typical Nebraska fashion helped their opponents continually. The 3rd Q was a nice one for Illinois in what looked like the Huskers had left their heart in their halftime lockers. Speaking of Hart, one of Illinois most impactful newcomers and week 0 performers left last week with an injury and his status is unknown. We do know that QB Brandon Peters is out and while Sitkowski has evolved into somewhat of a 'serviceable' QB he certainly isn't going to be responsible for many victories on his own.

I really do not see Illinois as being much better at all in any way than UTSA. I do think that Illinois will be feeling good and the week 0 win can be wind under their wings and boost their confidence in good ole Bert. Really though, I have to like this UTSA staff and what they were able to accomplish last year with this bunch in some really difficult circumstances.

Is a game under their belt a big advantage for Illinois? Normally I would say it is an advantage. But with one exception here. Illinois had the benefit of surprise vs Nebraska. So much so that Nebraska was unprepared and unable to adjust to Illinois D that it relegated half of their offense unsuitable! Well, that is all on tape now for UTSA to study and prep for. Sure I'm sure every coach has more wrinkles up their sleeve, but the element of catching UTSA off guard has gone down substantially.

UTSA gave BYU and UAB some pretty tough games last year on the road. And was a little misleading, but hung tough with ULL in the bowl.

The key is going to be UTSA QB Frank Harris. UTSA has all the tools and personnel to win this game, we just need Harris to also do his part, which at times, has been inconsistent. Assuming he atleast is equally 'serviceable' I will definitely be putting some action on the UTSA ML which looks to be about +175!
 
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I have a lot of interest in UTSA this week. In the summer looking at the schedules the game immediately jumped out. I did expect Nebraska to win last week, but acknowledged it could be a competitive game and could see Illinois winning week 0 and then losing week 1 to UTSA. So the first part has happened.

Now, this isn't a situational let down angle, or look ahead angle. Purely speaking Illinois still is not that good and UTSA is coming.

The UTSA offense bottomed out in 2018. That opened the door for true freshman to contribute immediately in 2019 showing an uptick in the offense. They went from 14ppg to 20ppg 2018 to 2019 with the likes of Sincere McCormick, Zakhari Franklin, Joshua Cephus breaking onto the scene around a revolving door of injured QBs and young OL. It's almost hard to believe that a similar jump was seen from 2019 to 2020 with a new coaching staff with the lack of conventional offseason camps and practices last year. But UTSA did improve similarly again on offense going from 20ppg to 28ppg. 8 of their 11 starters on O were recognized as All Conf players last year. It is now one of the more experienced OLs in the country (120 starts), talented skill players entering year 3, some untapped potential at TE and hopefully some healthy QBs. QB health has been an ongoing issue and limiting factor for UTSA for years now. Atleast right now for game #1, we can say, they are healthy and that is all we need vs Illinois. Frank Harris, while beloved by fans and team mates, isn't the best QB in CUSA and at times leaves some plays on the table, but when he gets going he keys an offense that, at times, can be explosive. When he is not, they can he frustrating.

The offense is one year ahead of the defense. The Roadrunner D bottomed out in 2019, the final year of the Frank Wilson era. Holding teams below 35 points was a challenge vs just about anyone. It was equally shocking that again, first year coaching staff in the covid year was able to get this defense to perform at the level it did. They cut their ppg allowed from 34 to 25.7. They cut their total yards allowed from 429 to 383 trimming a full yard off the ypp and rushing ypc allowed. The pass D and sack numbers mostly stayed the same. For their efforts 7 of the 11 starters were recognized with some sort of All Conf recognition. And that doesn't include impact freshman LB Jamal Ligon who burst on the scene as their #3 tackler and sack leader. The front 7 should continue their improvement vs the run. The secondary needs to get better. Expectations are that it will. CB Tariq Woolen (made Bruce Feldman's freak list at #6) switched from WR to CB last year and also played part of the season injured. Now healthy and gaining a year of starting CB under his belt, he can use that experience to go with his incredibly dynamic athletic ability (4.34 40 time and 11' 5" high jump). The other 2 primary CBs showed ability, Robinson was a Fr who started last year. S Wisdom leads the unit and is PFF's 73rd best rated draft prospect. UTSA added 6'5" Clifford Chattman to the already veteran safety unit. If this defense can show similar improvement in year 2 of this coaching staff it showed in year 1, it will be a tough D.

Special teams are special for UTSA. They have excellent K Duplesis and P Dean. Dean was a 4th Tm AA!

So this UTSA team is one to keep an eye on.

We saw Illinois last week, and honestly, I didn't make much of their win. Nebraska appeared to be the better team throughout the 1st H yet in typical Nebraska fashion helped their opponents continually. The 3rd Q was a nice one for Illinois in what looked like the Huskers had left their heart in their halftime lockers. Speaking of Hart, one of Illinois most impactful newcomers and week 0 performers left last week with an injury and his status is unknown. We do know that QB Brandon Peters is out and while Sitkowski has evolved into somewhat of a 'serviceable' QB he certainly isn't going to be responsible for many victories on his own.

I really do not see Illinois as being much better at all in any way than UTSA. I do think that Illinois will be feeling good and the week 0 win can be wind under their wings and boost their confidence in good ole Bert. Really though, I have to like this UTSA staff and what they were able to accomplish last year with this bunch in some really difficult circumstances.

Is a game under their belt a big advantage for Illinois? Normally I would say it is an advantage. But with one exception here. Illinois had the benefit of surprise vs Nebraska. So much so that Nebraska was unprepared and unable to adjust to Illinois D that it relegated half of their offense unsuitable! Well, that is all on tape now for UTSA to study and prep for. Sure I'm sure every coach has more wrinkles up their sleeve, but the element of catching UTSA off guard has gone down substantially.

UTSA gave BYU and UAB some pretty tough games last year on the road. And was a little misleading, but hung tough with ULL in the bowl.

The key is going to be UTSA QB Frank Harris. UTSA has all the tools and personnel to win this game, we just need Harris to also do his part, which at times, has been inconsistent. Assuming he atleast is equally 'serviceable' I will definitely be putting some action on the UTSA ML which looks to be about +175!

Love this play. I don't see a great bounce back from Illinois and I doubt Traylor will have to throw out half his game plan after one or two series.
 
Love this play. I don't see a great bounce back from Illinois and I doubt Traylor will have to throw out half his game plan after one or two series.

I don't think this effects either side, but one interesting fact, Traylor came to Arkansas as RB coach in 2018 immediately after the Bielema firing.

That staff in San Antonio has it going on. We just need Frank Harris to come through for us and should be good!
 
My favorite thread on the net!!! Good to be back and see ya’ll on the grind!

I love me some San Jose st +14 vs usc! Love this team, they brought back virtually everyone and they had to deal w so much adversity last year! Love that they got a game under their belts in week 0! I think they gonna give the Trojans everything they want and then some!
 
I know nothing about UCLA but someone entertain me.

They will certainly be dogs as LSU travels to LA, the other one. Ya know because SEC teams don’t travel….not this team tho.

UCLA will have had one game under the belt already and this is LSU opener

most the offseason I was thinking ucla might have a good shot in this game but honestly after watching them whip Hawaii I’m not nearly as confident! The qb just isn’t a very accurate throwing imo, I don’t believe for 1 second Bruins gonna have those gaping run lanes you could drive a truck thru against Hawaii, if lsu is able to bottle up the run game im just not convinced Bruins will be able to score a whole lot. I was impressed with the Bruins defense tho, I think the under 66 is the best play in this one.
 
^ I think the LSU/UCLA under sounds good as well. UCLA's D might be better than some give them credit for and LSU's D should make Bruins work and earn everything.
 
^ I think the LSU/UCLA under sounds good as well. UCLA's D might be better than some give them credit for and LSU's D should make Bruins work and earn everything.

no doubt. while watching the Hawaii game (another under i played, lol) i couldnt help but think bruins offense might have a pretty tough time vs lsu,, there just no way do i see them having those monster rushing lanes for backs to run thru. i dont trust thompson-robinson to be able to keep the chains moving consistently thru the air, he was incredibly inaccurate last week even with guys wide open which you certainly wouldnt expect much of in this one!! i was impressed with bruins defense tho, and with the line being what it is ya gotta expect this to be close, for that to happen i think it needs to be a game played more in the high 20s than the 30s.. 31-27 type game feels right to me..
 
^ I think the LSU/UCLA under sounds good as well. UCLA's D might be better than some give them credit for and LSU's D should make Bruins work and earn everything.

I think unders as a whole probably solid bets this week, they def were good plays in week 0! Other than the sjst game all the others the offenses got off to pretty slow starts. Well, I suppose ucla didn’t really start slow but that was mainly a product of Hawaii doing really dumb things that gave Bruins crazy good field position! Like the punter taking a knee!! Lol, that drove me crazy!
 
Yeah UCLA exploded 1st Q. Then UCLA O only scored 1 TD (and 1 blk'd punt TD) 2nd H but they very clearly shut it down come end of 3rd Q. UCLA might not have "monster" lanes vs LSU, but they will find some success running it vs them.
 
Yeah UCLA exploded 1st Q. Then UCLA O only scored 1 TD (and 1 blk'd punt TD) 2nd H but they very clearly shut it down come end of 3rd Q. UCLA might not have "monster" lanes vs LSU, but they will find some success running it vs them.


im good with them having some success on the ground, just dont want to see them taking every hand off to the house like they were on Hawaii! lol.. actually think it be better for the under if they able to get some 1st downs on the ground, keep that clock ticking!! Hawaii really helped them get going with that goofy punter taking a knee when fielding the snap then another hawaii turnover allowing bruins to start in plus territory. i was pretty nervous bout the under when that started happening,, lol. bruins defense was the more impressive unit imo. they were living in the backfield vs hawaii.. obviously they wont be taking their foot off the gas as they did in that game but dont see them jumping out to all those early points either,, i really have no idea far as who gonna win this game, i dont know what lsu gonna look like this year, im just assuming the defense will be much better than last season, if not bruins will roll them and the under be toast!!
 
I haven't really gotten into any of my SDQL yet but one trend that uncovered a couple of gems the last couple of years was favorites that had a losing record the previous season.

Last year was a wash of course but two years ago it picked Nevada over Purdue and Central Ark over W. Ky....3 years ago it had NC A&T over ECU and Nicholls St. over Kansas as some examples....

It's not active yet but I was just wondering if anyone knows or sees any favs that had a losing record last year?

Here's the link:


i think wku had a losing record last season and they -22 tonight!! they had a ton of changes to this team tho. brought in new coaching staff along with all houston baptist players! so dunno if that really applicable?
 
I had to see what PS said of these two teams after M.W. graced us with his presence....

Rice Offense: "This year 9 starters are back, plus they get WR Rozner (2nd Team CUSA '19) back and they will easily have their best offense in the past 5 years."
Rice Defense: "This year they lose Aldredge but have 10 starters back and remain one of the top units in CUSA."

Ark Offense: "Look for more QB runs this year and they have 9 returning starters on offense including 2nd Tm SEC WR Treylon Burks but they also break in a new QB."
Ark Defense: "They have 10 starters back and my computer is calling for their best ppg allowed in 6 years at 29.8."

29.8ppg on defense?? And that's supposed to be their best in 6 years and with 10 starters coming back? I know they play in the SEC West and all but if they average 29.8ppg allowed then a line of 20 seems an awful lot to cover to me considering they are breaking in a new QB..... @M.W. might be on to something here and has certainly peaked my interest.

:popcorn: :shake:

i hope rice offense better than it been of late cause they drove me freaking crazy last year,, i dunno how many times they controlled games but continually failed to put points on the board!! i do like their defense tho so if they do improve offensively they should be pretty tough.. 20 def seems like a lot with texas on deck for arky.. think it was 2 years ago i took rice as 20 point dogs to open the season vs one the military academies and it was really close (forget who even won. lol)..
 
Hate to say it, but UGA for me.

kinda feels more important to them doesnt it? we know clemson gonna roll thru rest their schedule and most likely acc championship which will most likely put them in playoff,, gotta figure uga gonna take a loss at some point in sec play so they cant afford to lose this one.
 
I think those dastardly Cards from Loserville might deserve a closer look/discussion. Here's a few snippets of what PS says about them and Miss.

Cards O: "They have a veteran OLine and Satterfield's Offense always puts up big plays but they figure to take a step back in 2021."
Cards D: "This year 6 starters are back but lose 5 out of 7 of their top tacklers so they may take a step back."

PS says they will take a step back on both O & D but he also goes on to say for 2021: "they are poised to rebound and 5 of my 9 sets of power ratings call for them to get back to a bowl this year."

Miss O: "This year 8 starters are back but they do lose their top 2 receivers, but they will remain among the nation's best."
Miss D: "allowed 519 ypg and 38.3 ppg. This year 9 starters are back after their top tackler transferred to Kentucky. They will be much tougher in 2021."

Louisville gave up an average of 26ppg last year on defense....that's a 13ppg gap! How much can Miss close this gap?

I also found these trends that support a play on the Cards....

Lane Kiffin is 1-3 ATS on rest of more than 14 days....he is also 3-12-1 ATS in weeks 2 or less. That is easily THE worst trend I can remember seeing out of LK.
Scott Satterfield is 4-0 ATS on rest of greater than 14 days....he is also 9-4 ATS in weeks 2 or less.

:popcorn:

is it really fair to compare their ppg allowed last season when ville was playing the acc while ol piss was playing the sec? gotta figure that gap isnt that great when ya factor the competition no? should be a really fun game tho, scoreboard will look like a pinball machine!!
 
i really liked wvu defense last year and im sure i will like them as dogs several times this year but is their offense strong enough to be road favs at maryland? terps have some weapons and what could be a star qb..terps have 10 guys back on defense that wasnt good last year but did improve as the season went on. normally i prefer defense to offense but im just not convinced wvu can shut terps down and i dont trust them to score all that much even against weaker defenses.
 
Call me crazy but Zona worth a look. BYU lost a lot of offensive production and Zona got addition by subtraction by unloading Sumlin.
 
As far as LSU D goes….the Dline should be best in years. The CBs are the best duo in nation and the Safety and Nickel should be great too. LB a concern

Biggest thing: NO Pelini.
 
Call me crazy but Zona worth a look. BYU lost a lot of offensive production and Zona got addition by subtraction by unloading Sumlin.

i don’t think it all that crazy. Like you said byu lost a lot and not like they played anyone last year either.
 
As far as LSU D goes….the Dline should be best in years. The CBs are the best duo in nation and the Safety and Nickel should be great too. LB a concern

Biggest thing: NO Pelini.

i just need them to slow down bruins rushing attack/not allow the 50+ yard home runs. as long they do that i think under should have a pretty good chance.. if their secondary is that good i would expect DTR to struggle, he is not very accurate, last week he was missing/sailing the ball to wide open guys!! What lsu offense gonna look like? they gonna go fast or be more traditional?
 
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