ML Dogs Week 0-1

JROCK1966

JROCK1966

Big Blue Nation
@ProV1Colt @B.A.R. where you guys at with this thread? I couldn't wait any longer so I had to post it!

What dogs are barking first week of the season boys?? I hate to say it but my Cats are looking like an upset candidate....lost a lot on defense and basically the entire offense has been replaced. Large chance of lack of cohesion against Toledo who got votes in the pre-season top 25 AP poll.

:oops: 🤔😬
 
Worth a shot small at least:

USF ..... NW .....UTEP .......TEXAS
* also : Toledo ..... Buffalo!

Consider maybe very small / lottery type parlay : EMU ... S Miss ... Va Tech

Spread/ML play?: Iowa State ... Baylor ... LSU ..... Miami,F
 
I grabbed a +220…


The transfer(which one lol?!) got dinged…expected BYU Retz to start anyway but still….
I’ve heard 6-6 by many I respect. I just believe in Sumrall so much, but that’s for later. I’ll likely be at this game and Duke game for sure
 
FCS wins vs FBS, a lot of people have said that it is harder now for various reasons. While I do not know the overall % of wins FCS has vs FBS in a given year, we can easily find out how many of their wins occurred vs Power Conference type teams by looking at various lists on the web (NCAA.com and others). What certainly has changed is who the wins come against.

Last 16 years FCS wins over FBS (and % of wins vs at the time Power conference teams)

2009 - 5 (2 = 40%)
2010 - 7 (4 = 57%)
2011 - 6 (3 = 50%)
2012 - 10 (1 = 10%)
2013 - 16 (4 = 25%)
2014 - 8 (1 = 12.5%)
2015 - 9 (3 = 30%)
2016 - 10 (5 = 50%)
2017 - 9 (1 = 11%)
2018 - 7 (1 = 14%)
2019 - 3 (1 = 33%)
2020 - covid 2 (0 = 0%)
2021 - 13 (4 = 30.7%)
2022 - 8 (1 = 12.5%)
2023 - 4 (1 = 25%)
2024 - 6 (0 = 0%)

First 8 seasons 71 wins, 23 vs P5 (32.4%)
Last 8 seasons 52 wins, 9 vs P5/4 (17.3%)
 
Having said that, can anyone help me better understand how likely SFA over Houston would be or SLU over LaTech. I think both SFA and SLU are pretty capable if the opponent is equally vulnerable to having it happen.
 
s--k said:
FCS wins vs FBS, a lot of people have said that it is harder now for various reasons. While I do not know the overall % of wins FCS has vs FBS in a given year, we can easily find out how many of their wins occurred vs Power Conference type teams by looking at various lists on the web (NCAA.com and others). What certainly has changed is who the wins come against.

Last 16 years FCS wins over FBS (and % of wins vs at the time Power conference teams)

2009 - 5 (2 = 40%)
2010 - 7 (4 = 57%)
2011 - 6 (3 = 50%)
2012 - 10 (1 = 10%)
2013 - 16 (4 = 25%)
2014 - 8 (1 = 12.5%)
2015 - 9 (3 = 30%)
2016 - 10 (5 = 50%)
2017 - 9 (1 = 11%)
2018 - 7 (1 = 14%)
2019 - 3 (1 = 33%)
2020 - covid 2 (0 = 0%)
2021 - 13 (4 = 30.7%)
2022 - 8 (1 = 12.5%)
2023 - 4 (1 = 25%)
2024 - 6 (0 = 0%)

First 8 seasons 71 wins, 23 vs P5 (32.4%)
Last 8 seasons 52 wins, 9 vs P5/4 (17.3%)
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Thanks for compiling this.
 
Weber State and Nicholls State are at the top of my list.

Weber is 0-3 versus JMU, including a home loss in 2021 and playoff losses in 2019 and 2017. This is a big game for them, while JMU has moved on and looks forward to a huge challenge at Louisville.

Nicholls and Troy have played five times, from 1997 to 2001. Nicholls won the first game; Troy took the next four by a combined 118-22. Last meeting was a 26-0 shutout. Will be easy for Troy to overlook the Thibodaux team with a trip to Clemson up next, especially with the misleadingly close final score last time giving them hope for an upset.
 
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M.W. said:
Weber State and Nicholls State are at the top of my list.

Weber is 0-3 versus JMU, including a home loss in 2021 and playoff losses in 2019 and 2017. This is a big game for them, while JMU has moved on and looks forward to a huge challenge at Louisville.

Nicholls and Troy have played five times, from 1997 to 2001. Nicholls won the first game; Troy took the next four by a combined 118-22. Last meeting was a 26-0 shutout. Will be easy for Troy to overlook the Thibodaux team with a trip to Clemson up next, especially with the misleadingly close final score last time giving them hope for an upset.
Click to expand...
Good stuff
 
I was worried about Toledo before reading Phil Steel's writeup and now I'm dialing 911 after reading his writeup. He picks Toledo to win the MAC and have DD's in the win column putting them in position for a shot at the playoffs! :oops: The Rockets are no stranger to SEC home stadiums as they won at Mississippi State to begin the year last year if you all recall. They have 13 starters back whereas my Cats completely overhauled the roster and brought in 50-something new faces. Calzada is a playmaker at QB....I saw it with my own eyes when he led aTm to that win over Bama a few years back but I'm not sure were going to holdup on the defensive end. We lost some studs off our defense last year and have only 5 starters back and I just have to wonder how many games it's going to take before all those new players start to gel and begin playing well together. Not a great opponent to begin our year with at all and if you're a Toledo backer in this game then you'll get no argument from me!

☹️😣
 
This is my favorite trend over the years for Week 1. Basically it is favored teams coming off a season where they had a losing record. It always seems to hit a big one during week 1. Couple years ago you all might remember Texas State winning at Baylor as a 26pt dog. Last year it did tighten up a bit as only Sam Houston won at Rice as a 9pt dog. But I'm going to roll it again....guess who is at the top of the list? 😭

Already write up above my feelings about my Cats. I've read through Phil Steele's writeups of the other big favs and I think best guess might be Purdue who is on upset watch. Purdue's defense really got smashed last year and to be honest, I'm not a big fan of Barry Odom. What did he do at Missouri? Yeah, kudos to him for rebuilding UNLV and he did bring in some transfers from there to help. PS writes folks in W. Lafayette are pointing to what IU did with JMU's transfer class last year. PS also writes however JMU's class of transfers were from one school and thus worked well together when they came to IU. Purdue's transfers are "mostly from all over." Ball State is not a world-beater by any stretch but the new coach thing going on here for the Boilers and the fact they are playing in-state little brother may make this a big game for Ball State. This is the best chance out of the other games on the list below if you ask me. According to PS, Mississippi State, Maryland, and FIU are much improved from last year. Kent State is downright awful and has no shot at Wake and I am not betting against Coach Smith at Sparty. I did not bother with looking at Kansas/Wagner matchup. BOL in what you decide!

🍀

week1.jpg
 
JROCK1966 said:
This is my favorite trend over the years for Week 1. Basically it is favored teams coming off a season where they had a losing record. It always seems to hit a big one during week 1. Couple years ago you all might remember Texas State winning at Baylor as a 26pt dog. Last year it did tighten up a bit as only Sam Houston won at Rice as a 9pt dog. But I'm going to roll it again....guess who is at the top of the list? 😭

Already write up above my feelings about my Cats. I've read through Phil Steele's writeups of the other big favs and I think best guess might be Purdue who is on upset watch. Purdue's defense really got smashed last year and to be honest, I'm not a big fan of Barry Odom. What did he do at Missouri? Yeah, kudos to him for rebuilding UNLV and he did bring in some transfers from there to help. PS writes folks in W. Lafayette are pointing to what IU did with JMU's transfer class last year. PS also writes however JMU's class of transfers were from one school and thus worked well together when they came to IU. Purdue's transfers are "mostly from all over." Ball State is not a world-beater by any stretch but the new coach thing going on here for the Boilers and the fact they are playing in-state little brother may make this a big game for Ball State. This is the best chance out of the other games on the list below if you ask me. According to PS, Mississippi State, Maryland, and FIU are much improved from last year. Kent State is downright awful and has no shot at Wake and I am not betting against Coach Smith at Sparty. I did not bother with looking at Kansas/Wagner matchup. BOL in what you decide!

🍀

View attachment 101201
Click to expand...
LOL....just realized Kennesaw State is playing Wake and not Kent St. 🤣 🤕 The "KENST" got me.....I do not know anything about Kennesaw St.
 
bookieassassin said:
Worth a shot small at least:

USF ..... NW .....UTEP .......TEXAS
* also : Toledo ..... Buffalo!

Consider maybe very small / lottery type parlay : EMU ... S Miss ... Va Tech

Spread/ML play?: Iowa State ... Baylor ... LSU ..... Miami,F
Click to expand...

Man ya’ll know I love the doggies but I’m having a really hard time not loving clemson (already have them to cap several parlays) and Irish to a lesser extent. I just can’t get behind lsu with 4 new oline dudes against that clemson defensive front, just feels like nussmeyer gonna be under a lot of pressure, can’t recall ever being impressed w lsu week 1 under kelly in these kinda games, I guess it not super important to either since I assume Clemson gonna smash acc competition and be in playoffs by winning conf I do think lsu has a lot more chances to look good on a big stage than Clemson does.

At Miami I can see reasons to like them far more than lsu but damn if I don’t think that a massive caching mismatch favoring Irish, not sure I ever liked the canes qb all that much at Uga, and I’ve been hearing Irish ppl that know more than me say they really like their new qb. It prob Irish or pass, think I’ll be able to find some bigger dogs with the points like ecu and buffalo yesterday but I had a very hard time finding anything I loved outright far as ml dogs this weekend.
 
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