• Time to make 1st round picks for the College Football Playoff Contest!

ML Dogs Week 0-1

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
DID SOMEONE SAY ML DOGS???
HAS ANYONE HEARD ANY DOGS BARKING!!

That is right! We are back fellow CTG'ers !!! The College Football season is right around the corner ( 50 Days )
We still have the British Open, LLWS and Olympics this year to tide us over until then....

I thought I would go ahead and get this thread up & going early.

Let's discuss FIRE AWAY!

and don't forget our UNDERDOG CONTEST too! Details to come......
 
ProV1Colt said:
DID SOMEONE SAY ML DOGS???
HAS ANYONE HEARD ANY DOGS BARKING!!

That is right! We are back fellow CTG'ers !!! The College Football season is right around the corner ( 50 Days )
We still have the British Open, LLWS and Olympics this year to tide us over until then....

I thought I would go ahead and get this thread up & going early.

Let's discuss FIRE AWAY!

and don't forget our UNDERDOG CONTEST too! Details to come......
Click to expand...
GT
FAU
ODU
 
steponaduck said:
Underdog ML parlay candidates. Week 0-1.

*** not official plays. Just ideas. Let’s hear YOURS TOO***

FAU +350
Stanford +260
WVU +300
Miami OH +150
Hawaii +470
Charlotte +245
USC +168

Maybe New Mexico +235 week 0
Click to expand...
georgia tech maybe worth a flyer. georgia southern.

i'm rolling with miami oh, hawaii, usc, arizona state.....when i look at this schedule it's mostly fcs matchups - so the upsets will probably be coming from there

Also - I believe the gap between the haves and have nots is widening.
 
Pretty interesting game between Montana St and UNM (okay to me it is). MSU coach Brett Vigen was nearly hired to replace Gonzales at UNM before Bronco Mendenhall threw his hat in the ring.

I dont know how much motivation that is for Vigen, but my source said Vigen was the guy and it was all but a done deal.
 
CPA-hole said:
Pretty interesting game between Montana St and UNM (okay to me it is). MSU coach Brett Vigen was nearly hired to replace Gonzales at UNM before Bronco Mendenhall threw his hat in the ring.

I dont know how much motivation that is for Vigen, but my source said Vigen was the guy and it was all but a done deal.
Click to expand...
The whole thing is so intriguing. What's crazy is I feel like I know a lot more about Montana State than I do about UNM.
 
KJ said:
The whole thing is so intriguing. What's crazy is I feel like I know a lot more about Montana State than I do about UNM.
Click to expand...
UNM will at least be better coached and have more discipline. That's a start. They really need to win this game if they want to cash their over win total which is 1.5.
 
CPA-hole said:
I see 7.5. Brad Powers said on a podcast, he had MSU -10
Click to expand...
That makes some sense

It's incredibly difficult to line the FCS power vs the FBS team that struggles. I have to believe that both of them think it's a winnable game so what happens after kickoff is tricky and definitely not my strong suit.
 
bookieassassin said:
THAT ..... would be 3+ my man ha
> line (should) be around 6-7 probably - typically shaded to the FBS team so who knows / might get an early mistake
Click to expand...
I'm not remotely good at this which is why I laughed

There are no power numbers in this dojo
 
Speaking of power ratings.....

Brad Power's preview is up - his website for $50 or (you know where) for free. No FCS numbers yet but all FBS, with predicted lines for every game this year and much more. Top notch stuff - he works really hard, watches a ton of film (all-22).

FCS numbers are much more readily available than years past (Sagarin and Massey only). Collin Wilson has current numbers up at AN, as does Massey as usual (not bad this year). If needed, you can use 2023 numbers and adjust - for Sagarin, Steele, and Bill C.

Shortcut to Bill C's stuff : https://docs.google.com/document/d/1BKvo23DyGppxvRifqFgwkUoflPLQX5wabjUDIV4qUZA/edit

For FBS I would use, pretty much in this order : judged how close they are to Vegas' opening numbers mostly

Bill C - great except for schools with a ton of changes - just skip then (early in the season) -eg. Michigan - Bama - UCLA, etc
Brad Powers - really solid week to week - maybe best week 1
ESPN FPI - horrible at first, not bad currently - watch out for outliers tho
Collin Wilson (AN) - too far from Vegas' probably IMO- but check his outliers for predictive value - (he knows his stuff)
* Then the above guys are fine - Sagarin > Steele > Massey

A few CW outliers for week 1 - Vegas line in ()
Jax St -15 (5)
Fla St -20 (13')
TCU -3 (8')
Sparty -6' (11)
Indy -28 (19)
Neb -35 (28)
HOUSTON -15 (3)
UCLA -7 (13')
JMU -3' (10)
Wyoming -1 (+7)

*agree with several of those ......




edit: forgot about this guy - comparing his numbers to most all else - probably the closest to Vegas' numbers - and FREE

kfordratings.com

KFord Ratings

kfordratings.com kfordratings.com
 
Last edited:
What would be a ML Dog thread on CTG without one of my RR’s?? Welcome back everyone! It’s nice to read your posts again. FWIW, I just played this 2, 3, & 4-teamer RR:

Georgia Tech +360
FIU +980
FAU +360
Stanford +255
Risked $2 per parlay to Win $3,318.34

BOLTA!
 
JROCK1966 said:
What would be a ML Dog thread on CTG without one of my RR’s?? Welcome back everyone! It’s nice to read your posts again. FWIW, I just played this 2, 3, & 4-teamer RR:

Georgia Tech +360
FIU +980
FAU +360
Stanford +255
Risked $2 per parlay to Win $3,318.34

BOLTA!
Click to expand...
Just stopping by to give a bit of a write-up on my picks from yesterday. I got lucky with Ga. Tech based off my reading of Phil Steel's write-ups. My favorite trend (see pic 1 below) in weeks 0 & 1 is to look for teams that are favored and coming off losing seasons. Last year this trend produced upsets of Texas State over Baylor & N. Illinois over BC. In 2022, it had Delaware over Navy and Northwestern over Nebraska. In 2021, it had ETSU over Vandy and N. Illinois over Ga. Tech....you get the idea....there is almost always a couple of DD Dogs in this trend to back. I still have to pick 'em though as there are other plenty of favorites as well that will win. I try my best to read what Phil Steel says about each team to get a feel for which favorite might be ripe for an L.

FIU @ Indiana - I have to play FIU here at +980 odds. FIU's write-up from Phil Steele is very bright and positive. This is year 3 for Coach MacIntyre at FIU. He was 1-12 in his first year at San Jose St. and 11-2 in year 3. Among other things, Phil Steele says it is his Coach MacIntyre's "time to shine." He adds FIU is stronger on both sides of the ball and at QB. IU also had a positive write-up from PS but are coming off a 3-9 year. Key statement for me is PS saying Coach Curt Cignetti "faces tougher opponents here without the personnel advantage he had there." <= Contrasting his IU stint vs. JMU stint. If IU was playing someone like OSU the 2nd game and it was an obvious loss, then I might not back FIU....but they are playing Western Illinois their 2nd game so there might not be a sense of this game vs. FIU being a "must win or we go 0-2" scenario. New coach might take a few games to get everyone gelled so I think the ingredients are all here for and upset and there is a lot of value with FIU. Pick: Panthers +980

FAU @ Michigan State - Fade the new coach angle here again and I for sure took notice @M.W. is on FAU. I love it when my trends match @M.W. 's picks! PS says that FAU has a very athletic defense, one of the AAC's best, their offense is improved, and they made PS's most improved list. Pick: FAU +360

TCU @ Stanford: Since 2019, away favorites who are coming off a losing season in week 0 or 1 (see pic 2 below) are 7-7 SU for 50% I'll take 50% all day any day when trying to pick ML upsets. Stanford is an auto-play for me. Pick: Stanford +255

A bit about the rest why I don't like them....UNLV & Houston aren't worth the ML, PS has South Carolina reaching 9-3 and, if so, I don't see them losing to ODU. Ohio has basically a rebuild year and Cuse has the Ohio State QB transfer coming in. Nebraska is supposed to be solid. Kent State is awful and finally Coach Prime showed last year he will have his boys ready for game 1. Therefore, I think our best bets for ML wins from this list are FIU, FAU, and Stanford. Good luck in what you decide!

tpsW-tpsL.jpg

tpsW-tpsLAF.jpg
 
JROCK1966 said:
What would be a ML Dog thread on CTG without one of my RR’s?? Welcome back everyone! It’s nice to read your posts again. FWIW, I just played this 2, 3, & 4-teamer RR:

Georgia Tech +360
FIU +980
FAU +360
Stanford +255
Risked $2 per parlay to Win $3,318.34

BOLTA!
Click to expand...
I played all but Stanford in a four-teamer with ODU. Have a round-robin of two-teamers with ODU, Ga State, and Ga Tech (v. FSU)
 
Adding this 2, 3, & 4-teamer RR...played at DK (just trying to follow the rules man!):

E. Illinois 1st Half +1000
FAU +360
FIU +750
Stanford +300
Risked $22 ($2 per parlay) to Win $8,348.49

PS - put $10.50 down on E. Illinois FG +3000 FG to win $315.00....played it at FD (Am I doing this right man?)

BOLTA!!
 
JROCK1966 said:
Adding this 2, 3, & 4-teamer RR...played at DK (just trying to follow the rules man!):

E. Illinois 1st Half +1000
FAU +360
FIU +750
Stanford +300
Risked $22 ($2 per parlay) to Win $8,348.49

PS - put $10.50 down on E. Illinois FG +3000 FG to win $315.00....played it at FD (Am I doing this right man?)

BOLTA!!
Click to expand...
Let's go!
 
Very late but there a delay. I played gophers ml, no great reason just think unc will struggle w new qbs and trust minny to get ground game going.
 
E. Illinois was cannon fodder last night for their big brother....no worries as tonight is when it gets real. Stanford & FAU let's go!!
 
Added two more 2, 3, & 4-teamers with the following (played at DK):

UConn 1st Quarter +360
FIU +950
FAU +440
Stanford +240
Risked $11 ($1 per Parlay) to Win $1,788.59

UConn 1st Half +500
FIU +950
FAU +440
Stanford +245
Risked $11 ($1 per Parlay) to Win $2,266.28

UConn @ Terps: Maryland breaking in a new OLine and QB. Their defense is their strength according to PS. Locksley is 4-0 SU in home openers at MD so I'm staying away from the FG ML. UConn surprised the shit out of Utah State (as a 24pt dog) a couple years ago jumping out to a 14-0 lead and did so with a much worse team than Coach Mora will field Saturday. I'm hoping lightning strikes twice and UConn gets off to a good start. PS has positive writeups for UConn on both sides of the ball and says they are improved and they stand a good chance of going bowling. 5th year QB Fagnano was supposed to take over the reins again this year according to PS but recently Mora announced the Wisky transfer Nick Evers will be starting QB for UConn. I think that sounds like a positive development seeing as Evers beat out a 5th year grad transfer and hopefully bodes well for the UConn O. We'll see...like I said earlier I'm hoping for a 2nd lightning strike as Maryland hopefully fumbles around in the 1st half breaking in a new QB and OLine. Pick: UConn 1st Quarter +360 & 1st Half +500
 
Whelp yesterday sucked. FAU most def had some chances...down by 6 they got the ball back 3 different times in the last 10 minutes but just could not get the final TD needed. Stanford covered but lost SU. If you're keeping track of my picks ATS then that is 3-0 ATS so far this season FWIW and we have FIU and UConn 1Q & 1H to go today. ;) I went back to my fav query and check it out below....so far, Favs coming off a losing season, in week <2, are 9-0 SU. I went back the last 10 years in my query and found there has been at least 1 DD Dog win each year since 2014. So chances are still good at least 1 of the dogs left to play today will win. A new team popped up this morning I have not seen before. That is Marshall but I quickly checked Stony Brook's schedule last season and they went winless so that game is a non-starter. Cincy lost 9 of their last 10 games last year and I would not mind seeing Satterfield get tripped up in game 1. Towson was not terrible last season but PS has Cincy as a much improved team so I'm not sure this is the game to pick an upset in therefore I will pass. Portland State is interesting as PS's writeup of Wazzou has them basically rebuilding their defense and while their QB Mateer has taken some snaps, he's not very experienced. Port. State has 14 starters returning including a 3 year QB. They have the in-state big-brother motivation going on. And Port. State has beaten Wazzou before so there is a history there. I still think, though, the best bet is FIU for the ATS & SU win tonight.

updatedquery.jpg
 
Posted losses this week =-$116.50. Pretty awful. I've been using my queries for at least 4-5 years and specifically had been dialed in to my "favorites coming off of losing seasons query" to begin each season It was producing at least 1 DD dog win every year each of the past 4-5 years and I was learning what to look for and really thought I was dialed in for this weekend. I backtracked this query and you have to go all the way back to 2014 to find a week 0 or 1 that did not produce a DD dog upset. Just my effing luck this year was the first time in 10 years all these favorites won. See pick below. Effing hell, I guess that's gambling for ya! :mad:

updatedquery2.jpg
 
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