ML Dogs Bowl Edition

UTSA

Guarantee they will want to be there. I'd be surprised if anybody opted out of their bowl. We'll have to look for it, but I think they are pretty tight knit group. Had a promo subscription to the San Antonio News Express and read a bunch of stories on them this year.

ULL seems pissed their chance to avenge the Coastal loss and maybe win the Sun Belt got canceled. They canceled that game after ULL had already flown and landed in South Carolina. They might be a little hung up on that. Plus I think ULL has chinks in the armor.
 
Hawaii is another good one.

I have less of a feel for their team, but you know, they are playing Houston...so that being the case, I don't think anyone would be surprised if Houston lost.
 
LaTech I believe should be favored.

A couple factors I can think of why they are not. LT's primary QB will be out with a broken leg injury vs TCU. LT does have another QB who gets a lot of playing time, granted he isn't as good though.

Georgia Southern will probably be without Shai Werts. It sounds like he might try to play, that could be baked into the line some. Hurt shoudler 2.5 games ago. Will have to monitor that. If he can't go they will play a bad QB in Mosley, or a true frosh Kenerson who had never seen action but could be an x factor. Their regular #2 QB Tomlin is out.

Both teams rosters are down on talent with several opt outs and Ga So has some suspensions that will need verified (Kennedy).

LT has the nation's longest active bowl winning streak at 6 and their last 3 have all been as dogs.
 
I know I know....Bama Bama Bama.....but for some reason Notre Dame +454 popped out at me. They have a better scoring defense than Florida does and Florida played them to within a TD. Can we try and make a case for Notre Dame pulling off the upset?

:popcorn:
 
JROCK1966 said:
I know I know....Bama Bama Bama.....but for some reason Notre Dame +454 popped out at me. They have a better scoring defense than Florida does and Florida played them to within a TD. Can we try and make a case for Notre Dame pulling off the upset?

:popcorn:
Click to expand...

This prompted me to think about what have been the largest upsets in bowl history?

So let's just say that Notre Dame's game vs Bama might mirror more of the Georgia-Alabama game? That is probably being generous to Notre Dame's defense comparing it to a healthy Georgia defense...but Notre Dame has a superior QB to what Dawgs fielded. And Bama trailed at halftime but did win by 17.

It's pretty hard to make the case for upset given history. Probably start at an ND cover first and foremost and the liklihood of that and work from there.
 
pressitup said:
Took LaTech +195
Click to expand...

After these first 3 down, I think we are entering into the area where dogs have shots (not really considering Nevada a dog, went off anywhere from -1 to +1.5).

I was just thinking more about this game.

I'm afraid Werts is going to play. We are 3+ weeks since he injured the shoulder. Not sure what is in the kids future, if he wants to keep playing after this year or what, but this could be his last game. Georgia Southern only attempted 13 passes per game on average. So it could be one of those things that he can't injure the shoulder more by playing but he might not be able to throw much, that won't matter though as having him out there running and maybe throwing a short pass here or there would worry me.

If Werts doesn't play, I'm afraid of the freshman QB running like a gazelle or something, total unknown but kid could be dangerous is what I'm afraid of.

One thing I am not afraid of is Mosley at QB...which the staff probably knows too so I think they are going to figure out ways to have other people at QB. If Mosley is the QB I would feel pretty good about the LaTech ML.

This Total seems pretty high at 48.5 given LT's QB situation and opt outs on O and the Ga So QB questions. GS's last two bowl games have combined scores of 39 and 44 and that is with Werts. LaTech beat Miami 14-0 and their 2018 bowl scored 45 pts. All the prior ones were high scoring. I'd be shocked if LaTech contributes to a high scoring game here.
 
s--k said:
After these first 3 down, I think we are entering into the area where dogs have shots (not really considering Nevada a dog, went off anywhere from -1 to +1.5).

I was just thinking more about this game.

I'm afraid Werts is going to play. We are 3+ weeks since he injured the shoulder. Not sure what is in the kids future, if he wants to keep playing after this year or what, but this could be his last game. Georgia Southern only attempted 13 passes per game on average. So it could be one of those things that he can't injure the shoulder more by playing but he might not be able to throw much, that won't matter though as having him out there running and maybe throwing a short pass here or there would worry me.

If Werts doesn't play, I'm afraid of the freshman QB running like a gazelle or something, total unknown but kid could be dangerous is what I'm afraid of.

One thing I am not afraid of is Mosley at QB...which the staff probably knows too so I think they are going to figure out ways to have other people at QB. If Mosley is the QB I would feel pretty good about the LaTech ML.

This Total seems pretty high at 48.5 given LT's QB situation and opt outs on O and the Ga So QB questions. GS's last two bowl games have combined scores of 39 and 44 and that is with Werts. LaTech beat Miami 14-0 and their 2018 bowl scored 45 pts. All the prior ones were high scoring. I'd be shocked if LaTech contributes to a high scoring game here.
Click to expand...
thinking under in the second game.
 
I am MLing Hawaii tomorrow. Like it a good bit. Put some reasons in Br@ssknux thread and the nonplayoff bowl thread.

Short version - I think Hawaii happy to be bowling somewhere other than their own stadium. Todd Graham from Texas, he will want team to perform well in homecoming.

Hawaii probably the tougher and more physical team.

3 huge opt outs for Houston, WR Stevenson and 2 on D in Stuard and Turner.

Houston very inconsistent. Hawaii not incredibly consistent either, but like more of their pieces. Cordeiro's play on early downs will be absolutely critical.
 
s--k said:
I am MLing Hawaii tomorrow. Like it a good bit. Put some reasons in Br@ssknux thread and the nonplayoff bowl thread.

Short version - I think Hawaii happy to be bowling somewhere other than their own stadium. Todd Graham from Texas, he will want team to perform well in homecoming.

Hawaii probably the tougher and more physical team.

3 huge opt outs for Houston, WR Stevenson and 2 on D in Stuard and Turner.

Houston very inconsistent. Hawaii not incredibly consistent either, but like more of their pieces. Cordeiro's play on early downs will be absolutely critical.
Click to expand...
Like it and will throw in a situational bit from my perspective. No one has been hit harder by this pandemic than Hawaii and by a ton. The stress there with tourism people having to leave because they can't make ends meet is much more than any of us will experience. It's simply not enjoyable to be in Hawaii right now. This trip to Texas should actually feel like a vacation for them crazy at it sounds. And Houston on the other hand gets to go to Frisco, can't imagine they give a fukk at all. Get home without a run to the hospital is my guess. Think Bows might well destroy the Cougs.
 
So other than Hawaii, my next target for ML play was UTSA. Citing the fact I know UTSA is excited after the season they had for first year head coach and the success. It is just their second ever bowl game. When their bowl game vs SMU was canceled and they shifted to this game they said they were glad because they hoped to play a higher profile team, at the time it was speculated maybe a Big Xll team. They got a high profile team alright, ULL. I can't say this is the sentiment of the players, but the fan base and if the fan base correctly portrays the sentiment of the team, but ULL is not happy to be playing a team of UTSA's record and stature after the season they have had. It has been said they want to "make an example of UTSA" in order to prove how disrespected they feel. At the same time ULL was supremely disappointed that Coastal canceled the Sun Belt Title game. ULL calls shenanigans saying it was purposeful in order to guarantee their unbeaten record and to not allow ULL to potentially avenge their only loss of the season. The ULL side has all kinds of reasons and conjecture to which I don't know what is true or not. But ULL had already arrived in South Carolina when the game was canceled.

So that is the backstory there on the motivational aspects.

Next...I am seeing CUSA teams get their shit pushed in left and right. And while UTSA did have a very nice season for themselves, they are 1-4 vs FBS teams with winning records. Yeah. ULL? They are 5-1. Hmmmm. Yeah. Now, one thing in UTSA's defense is they only lost by 7 at BYU and 8 at UAB. Lost at home by 12 vs Army in a game I ML'd UTSA in (frustrating game, Army was better, but not 12 points better). And they lost by 21 the week after an emotional win vs LaTech (comeback win)...losing by 21 to FAU is awful. QB Harris was horrible. There was some heavy rain, but it cleared up and they still sucks. So...CUSA football man. UTSA had a run of 3 wins to close the season where they blew out North Texas, UTEP and had a close win vs SMiss as a 9pt road fav.

I've kind of been compelled by this UTSA team this season and I may not be seeing it unbiased.

For a good bit of the season I was betting against ULL weekly with mixed results. ML TxSt against them, got lucky backdoor cover, ML Ark State against them, Ark St legitimately could've or even should've won that game (they led big and still left points off the board allowing ULL to comeback). I don't remember if I ML'd but I think I bet South Bama against ULL and ULL crushed them. It was right about that time I realized that ULL had bottomed out. The Arkansas State game was their low point and after myself and Spottie had called out ULL as being a vulnerable and overrated team when they were failing to look good winning at GaSTate and GaSouthern and UAB, ULL started to play better ball after the Ark State game.

So here they are.

One area of weakness with ULL is run D. They have allowed over 190y rushing in a game six times and no Iowa State wasn't one of them, all vs Sun Belt teams. If one RB had gained 1 extra yard, ULL would've allowed seven 100 yard rushers. This is important because UTSA's Sincere McCormick ranks 5th nationally in rushing ypg. CUSA O POY. And it should be known that he missed a game to be in with his girlfriend for the birth of his child. The game he missed was UTEP where the Roadrunners ran for 288. I can only imagine the numbers McCormick might've posted which could've bumped him into the top 3 yards per game nationally.

That is encouraging for the UTSA side. 3 of their OL were named CUSA 2nd Team.

Frank Harris is the QB now after being injury prone and being banged up this year, he was forced into action at less than 100% due to the QB position being wiped out and he played some good ball down the stretch. Team really rallys behind him as everyone knows he has been through a lot with this team. WRs Cephus and Franklin have both taken the next step from their 2019 freshman seasons.

The D has some pretty decent players in spots. Front 7 is stronger than the pass D, which is good facing ULL. They do have a real good CB Rashad Wisdom who should do well vs whomever he matches up against for ULL. They have some players who can impact like DL Jaylon Haynes when he's been healthy who gets attention to allow other players to make plays as well.

Head coach has positive covid test. Jeff Traylor has done an outstanding job in year 1. OC/QB coach Barry Lunney will coach the team if Traylor is unable to. And if Traylor is positive, what about the rest of the team?

They haven't beaten a lot of good teams, but I've been impressed with UTSA.

While ULL has beaten some good teams, but I've found myself being less than impressed with them at times.

I feel like while this ULL team is more heralded, that they are in fact not as good atleast offensively to their former teams. Their scoring and yardage is down and they don't have the passing game that threatens the same way they did last year. They really never recovered from losing their top 3 receivers off last year's team. Fewer big plays per game for them this year vs last year.

In some ways this play makes no sense. CUSA isn't any good. Sun Belt is very good and ULL is among the very best. Resume and power index would say this game should not be competitive.

So this is a hunch of mine that I will follow. Hard to know which way the motivation cuts for ULL. I remain sure that UTSA will be up for it. It's only their second bowl game ever and one of their biggest games in the short program's history given the rank and stature of this ULL team.

We shall see.
 
s--k said:
I am MLing Hawaii tomorrow. Like it a good bit. Put some reasons in Br@ssknux thread and the nonplayoff bowl thread.

Short version - I think Hawaii happy to be bowling somewhere other than their own stadium. Todd Graham from Texas, he will want team to perform well in homecoming.

Hawaii probably the tougher and more physical team.

3 huge opt outs for Houston, WR Stevenson and 2 on D in Stuard and Turner.

Houston very inconsistent. Hawaii not incredibly consistent either, but like more of their pieces. Cordeiro's play on early downs will be absolutely critical.
Click to expand...
Aside from the guys who opted out that you mentioned, hearing lots of other guys gonna be out due to Covid as well for Houston...... You or anybody else heard any word on any other keys guys on that list?
 
Favs have been crushing it thus far, prob why I’ve only made 2 bets! I am 2-0 with the Nevada over and ga southern yesterday :) trying to be selective and have left 2nd game alone after hitting 1st the last 2 days. I have no idea on Hawaii/Houston? I recall someone saying yesterday houston had bunch of opt outs or other issues? The injury report I generally look at isn’t listing anything but it isn’t the most reliable!

i am higher on the mountain west than the power rankings are that for sure! My concern with Hawaii is they havnt been off the island much and didn’t perform real well when they were losing by big margins to sdst and Wyoming, that is troublesome cause they played much better teams way tougher at home!! They beat Nevada, played boise within a score, they did lose to sjst by 11 but ya’ll know how much I think of them so not a terrible loss. If they can come to mainland and play way they have their last 4 games I’d be thrilled getting more than a td, the question is can they?

Houston does get after the qb ranking top 10 in sack percentage. Hawaii 93rd in protecting the qb so that a big concern. Finally a game that dog or nothing for me but leaning to nothing here.
 
About 1/3 of Houston's sacks and TFLs belong to two guys who aren't playing. They will still have 11 guys out there ,but 2 good ones won't be.

Hawaii was losing somewhat big to both Boise and San Jose at home and had to come back to cover vs Boise (lucky) and make it look closer vs San Jose.

I'd through the Hawaii - Wyoming game out for a few reasons. San Diego State has a very high end defense, something Houston does not have.
 
Really, it's two average to sometimes above average teams depending on the week they play.
 
ProV1Colt said:
I took Hawaii ML +260 & Hawaii +10 early this am.

I’ll make a play on the 1H and play some live Totals during In Game.

Hope we get a good one today
Click to expand...
I got ML Hawaii +260 but Hawaii +8.5 though as I look the ML and points have both gone down since my bet, so wonder if Sharps bets are starting to come in now.
 
Good job on the Hawaii/Houston game, guys. I won a parlay based strictly on the info you guys provided on a game I wasn't even going to bet.

Thought today I might find equally good info on Buffalo/Marshall. I won on both these teams several times early in the season, but lost on both their last game.

Any feelings about this game?
 
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I think Marshall is the better team, but not sure where their heads are at after laying an egg the last 2 games. Of course you might say the same thing for Buffalo after their last game. I lean Marshall.
 
Think Marshall would have benefitted from an actual bowl break as opposed to being thrown right back at it a week later while in a slide. Don't like either side as much as over, no weather concerns.
 
I should've thought about this bowl before now but I haven't. Don't have much time but will try and cram some.

It is odd that the MAC favorite and CUSA favorite both lost, both play here and Buffalo is such a significant favorite. ?

Defenses should be even or edge Marshall. Marshall has capable run game although Buffalo gets more attention due to flashy performances.

Difference is QB. This Wells kid has turned into a total stinker last 2 games. UB QB isn't exactly good, but at least he isn't a basket case right now like Wells is.

If Wells was playing atleast average I'd bet Marshall in a heartbeat at this line. Since he isn't...I agree, not sure where their heads are. Buffalo got upset in MAC Title but Marshall losing those two at home to close season I think may be a harder hurdle to overcome.
 
s--k said:
So other than Hawaii, my next target for ML play was UTSA. Citing the fact I know UTSA is excited after the season they had for first year head coach and the success. It is just their second ever bowl game. When their bowl game vs SMU was canceled and they shifted to this game they said they were glad because they hoped to play a higher profile team, at the time it was speculated maybe a Big Xll team. They got a high profile team alright, ULL. I can't say this is the sentiment of the players, but the fan base and if the fan base correctly portrays the sentiment of the team, but ULL is not happy to be playing a team of UTSA's record and stature after the season they have had. It has been said they want to "make an example of UTSA" in order to prove how disrespected they feel. At the same time ULL was supremely disappointed that Coastal canceled the Sun Belt Title game. ULL calls shenanigans saying it was purposeful in order to guarantee their unbeaten record and to not allow ULL to potentially avenge their only loss of the season. The ULL side has all kinds of reasons and conjecture to which I don't know what is true or not. But ULL had already arrived in South Carolina when the game was canceled.

So that is the backstory there on the motivational aspects.

Next...I am seeing CUSA teams get their shit pushed in left and right. And while UTSA did have a very nice season for themselves, they are 1-4 vs FBS teams with winning records. Yeah. ULL? They are 5-1. Hmmmm. Yeah. Now, one thing in UTSA's defense is they only lost by 7 at BYU and 8 at UAB. Lost at home by 12 vs Army in a game I ML'd UTSA in (frustrating game, Army was better, but not 12 points better). And they lost by 21 the week after an emotional win vs LaTech (comeback win)...losing by 21 to FAU is awful. QB Harris was horrible. There was some heavy rain, but it cleared up and they still sucks. So...CUSA football man. UTSA had a run of 3 wins to close the season where they blew out North Texas, UTEP and had a close win vs SMiss as a 9pt road fav.

I've kind of been compelled by this UTSA team this season and I may not be seeing it unbiased.

For a good bit of the season I was betting against ULL weekly with mixed results. ML TxSt against them, got lucky backdoor cover, ML Ark State against them, Ark St legitimately could've or even should've won that game (they led big and still left points off the board allowing ULL to comeback). I don't remember if I ML'd but I think I bet South Bama against ULL and ULL crushed them. It was right about that time I realized that ULL had bottomed out. The Arkansas State game was their low point and after myself and Spottie had called out ULL as being a vulnerable and overrated team when they were failing to look good winning at GaSTate and GaSouthern and UAB, ULL started to play better ball after the Ark State game.

So here they are.

One area of weakness with ULL is run D. They have allowed over 190y rushing in a game six times and no Iowa State wasn't one of them, all vs Sun Belt teams. If one RB had gained 1 extra yard, ULL would've allowed seven 100 yard rushers. This is important because UTSA's Sincere McCormick ranks 5th nationally in rushing ypg. CUSA O POY. And it should be known that he missed a game to be in with his girlfriend for the birth of his child. The game he missed was UTEP where the Roadrunners ran for 288. I can only imagine the numbers McCormick might've posted which could've bumped him into the top 3 yards per game nationally.

That is encouraging for the UTSA side. 3 of their OL were named CUSA 2nd Team.

Frank Harris is the QB now after being injury prone and being banged up this year, he was forced into action at less than 100% due to the QB position being wiped out and he played some good ball down the stretch. Team really rallys behind him as everyone knows he has been through a lot with this team. WRs Cephus and Franklin have both taken the next step from their 2019 freshman seasons.

The D has some pretty decent players in spots. Front 7 is stronger than the pass D, which is good facing ULL. They do have a real good CB Rashad Wisdom who should do well vs whomever he matches up against for ULL. They have some players who can impact like DL Jaylon Haynes when he's been healthy who gets attention to allow other players to make plays as well.

Head coach has positive covid test. Jeff Traylor has done an outstanding job in year 1. OC/QB coach Barry Lunney will coach the team if Traylor is unable to. And if Traylor is positive, what about the rest of the team?

They haven't beaten a lot of good teams, but I've been impressed with UTSA.

While ULL has beaten some good teams, but I've found myself being less than impressed with them at times.

I feel like while this ULL team is more heralded, that they are in fact not as good atleast offensively to their former teams. Their scoring and yardage is down and they don't have the passing game that threatens the same way they did last year. They really never recovered from losing their top 3 receivers off last year's team. Fewer big plays per game for them this year vs last year.

In some ways this play makes no sense. CUSA isn't any good. Sun Belt is very good and ULL is among the very best. Resume and power index would say this game should not be competitive.

So this is a hunch of mine that I will follow. Hard to know which way the motivation cuts for ULL. I remain sure that UTSA will be up for it. It's only their second bowl game ever and one of their biggest games in the short program's history given the rank and stature of this ULL team.

We shall see.
Click to expand...
Latest thoughts???

:popcorn:
 
Sorry I have not been able to help out here fellas! My capping was based entirely on finding 2-3 certain SDQL trends that included previous & recent matchups between the 2 teams. Bowl games generally don't generally meet this criteria. My next set of criteria was using stats like QB efficiency, total defense, etc. but SDQL stopped providing these features this past year....basically I'm fucked for bowl games.

But! I am possibly coming into my stride where college hoops is concerned and Indiana is certainly a live dog for today....fwiw.

:popcorn:
 
JROCK1966 said:
Latest thoughts???

:popcorn:
Click to expand...

ArtieWins said:
So.... UTSA moneyline??
Click to expand...

Yup. I just put on my Roadrunners shirt.

I think whether or not one decides to play UTSA depends on how vulnerable they believe ULL to be. Houston being a weak favorite isn't the same thing as ULL is. There are some things to like about ULL whereas there was little to like about Houston. I think they could be vulnerable today and I believe in UTSA which leads me to the ML. My only question will be if I put 50 or 100 on the ML.

Otherwise? I do want to take Georgia State but really do not like laying the points there. Dropped from 4 to 3.5, maybe it drops more? The Under in that game as VC has identified does appear to be a solid choice with everything pointing to it.

Brassknux summed up the Coastal and Liberty game like this "in a game with two of the best "Group of 5" teams that pretty much mirror each other, I'll take the one who's getting more than a TD". I concur. His line is 7.5, but I am going to take Liberty at any line available. And sure they could win.

Will have to check twitter for any player updates, not sure there will be any surprises on that front today.
 
Wake Forest the next sizable dog to win? Will have to look into.

I suppose I like Colorado, a little,maybe, but again I don't have any real clue or angles there.
 
Going with $20 on Wake to win 58. Not real high on it, but would seem to have a shot as discussed in other thread.
 
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