ML Dogs Bowl & Championship Week Edition

bones said:
I like U.H. Their offense can keep up easily. I need to study first on match ups. I have been generally impressed with their competitiveness
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If you like UH offense to be better than UC defense, Cougs are the only way to go imo

I just think UC defense is as professional a side you'll see on the field outside of UGA and Bama in a big game the rest of the way
 
Next tier defense for me defensively are Okie Lite, Iowa/Mich and standing outside SDSU

Strange thing for big 10 imo is Mich coming in off a massive win and Iowa coming in off a crazy comeback but a full day of digesting it before finding out miraculously they have a game this week. Strange phenomenon there. Not like Mich won't be motivated of course but Iowa can somehow be in the Rose Bowl? Crazy.
 
I tend to like UH as well. Cincy just seems to be sleepwalking and playing undisciplined football more than it should. They tend to kick it into gear when needed but all the pressure is on them this game and UH should be loose and I think they'll play well.
 
Frank Costanza said:
I tend to like UH as well. Cincy just seems to be sleepwalking and playing undisciplined football more than it should. They tend to kick it into gear when needed but all the pressure is on them this game and UH should be loose and I think they'll play well.
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I'll put all I know on CFB (might be shit) on Cinci boat racing. This isn't a close talent matchup, I damn near applaud them for making it through the dregs of the season without worse damage than they took. This is an incredibly talented defense and an offense that should destroy UH physically and mentally.
 
KJ said:
I'll put all I know on CFB (might be shit) on Cinci boat racing. This isn't a close talent matchup, I damn near applaud them for making it through the dregs of the season without worse damage than they took. This is an incredibly talented defense and an offense that should destroy UH physically and mentally.
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I'll defer to your knowledge. I probably like UH a bit more than you and like CIncy a bit less.
 
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Frank Costanza said:
I'll defer to your knowledge. I probably like UH a bit more than you and like CIncy a bit less.
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They'd compete for any P5 championship but unfortunately they have to go undefeated and dress appropriately to act like they belong at the table. Yay playoff!
 
Agree with KJ here. Thought last week against ECU was the potential sleepwalk game where ECU covers and Cincy had none of it. They have been laser focused the last couple weeks and will be for sure this week. Don’t forget they went into south beat and beat Notre Dame pretty easily… that looks to be a really good win right now.
 
C-MAN said:
Agree with KJ here. Thought last week against ECU was the potential sleepwalk game where ECU covers and Cincy had none of it. They have been laser focused the last couple weeks and will be for sure this week. Don’t forget they went into south beat and beat Notre Dame pretty easily… that looks to be a really good win right now.
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For this cat they will be played a lot of ways that says 55-16 or so

This isn't a run for them, it's been a project and I won't hesitate to bet them in the semis if it makes sense
 
KJ said:
For this cat they will be played a lot of ways that says 55-16 or so

This isn't a run for them, it's been a project and I won't hesitate to bet them in the semis if it makes sense
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Completely agree. Houston OOC schedule this season was a joke (tx tech Loss, rice, grambling, uconn). They are an absolute fraudulent 11-1. Paper tiger, and will get kicked in the teeth by cincy. The fickell to ND rumors worry me a little, but I don’t think this is enough to distract him/his team from the task at hand. Another potential motivation factor will be tonight’s rankings. If they are somehow ranked 5th tonight, big time bump for cincy imo. They are good enough to win by as many as they want in most games, added motivation would be dangerous. But either way, they will need to win convincingly and they know that and will have it preached to them all week.
 
Concur. Houston is not that good. Cincy D might be living in the backfield when UH runs and passes.
 
2daBank said:
seems like the plan to me.. now i just gotta find some!!! this will shock nobody, i like wku as small dogs!
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The first dog on the schedule I would bet to win straight up is Western Kentucky. I do not see motivation being a problem. All their transfer players have elected to play this game. Last year an offensively challenged WKU team lost to an up-and-coming Georgia State team. I think WKU knows this has been a special year and they are looking to finish it off right. OC Kittley is coaching too.

Not quite sure App State will have the same motivations, actually having won 6 bowls straight (maybe taking it for granted?), but this year have a huge drop off at QB compared to their prior bowl teams. They played some of those bowls as Sun Belt Champs 2016-2017-2018-2019. 2020 they were not SBC champs, but played a weak North Texas team. App State looks down a touch and the bowl opponent this year is stronger.

I do have a big concern about the App State D and maybe their run game vs WKU D. I am not concerned about App St pass game and frankly, I don't fear or respect it at all. ULL D must have the key to shutting down this App State team, so it can be done. Can WKU copy that?

App State is like a lesser version of UTSA in my eyes. WKU did lose to UTSA twice. WKU outgained them in both games with better or even YPPs but lost by 6 and 8. Defensively it seems like App State is a team that can get some stops and force some FGAs. So that worries me. Still, WKU scored 46 and 41 pts on UTSA. Nobody at the Group of 5 level has consistently stopped WKU. Getting "some stops" and "consistently stopping WKU" are two different things. WKU should get theirs unless it is a turnover fest.
 
s--k said:
The first dog on the schedule I would bet to win straight up is Western Kentucky. I do not see motivation being a problem. All their transfer players have elected to play this game. Last year an offensively challenged WKU team lost to an up-and-coming Georgia State team. I think WKU knows this has been a special year and they are looking to finish it off right. OC Kittley is coaching too.

Not quite sure App State will have the same motivations, actually having won 6 bowls straight (maybe taking it for granted?), but this year have a huge drop off at QB compared to their prior bowl teams. They played some of those bowls as Sun Belt Champs 2016-2017-2018-2019. 2020 they were not SBC champs, but played a weak North Texas team. App State looks down a touch and the bowl opponent this year is stronger.

I do have a big concern about the App State D and maybe their run game vs WKU D. I am not concerned about App St pass game and frankly, I don't fear or respect it at all. ULL D must have the key to shutting down this App State team, so it can be done. Can WKU copy that?

App State is like a lesser version of UTSA in my eyes. WKU did lose to UTSA twice. WKU outgained them in both games with better or even YPPs but lost by 6 and 8. Defensively it seems like App State is a team that can get some stops and force some FGAs. So that worries me. Still, WKU scored 46 and 41 pts on UTSA. Nobody at the Group of 5 level has consistently stopped WKU. Getting "some stops" and "consistently stopping WKU" are two different things. WKU should get theirs unless it is a turnover fest.
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Wku center pretty much killed them in the second utsa game, ended 2 1st half drives with snaps over qb head and got them in a hole they couldn’t get out of, had they had another qrtr think they run away, that was the second game in a row they were sloppy and pretty awful in the 1st half, Marshall couldn’t bury them and wku crushed them in 2nd. Utsa got a big margin and they couldn’t complete the comeback (mostly thanks to a muffed punt right after half after d came out and got a stop!). I will most likely bet them before game but probably not worst idea to possibly live bet if they get off to a slow start. It wasn’t just group of 5s, they hung 30+ on a couple big10 schools also. This team can score on anyone.
 
Played a 3 team parlay with one spot open…MTSU ML and NIU ML to start. Shits and giggles type play but currently would pay 32-1 with the open play.
 
The drawback I see with W Kentucky is they are located right in the epicenter of tornado destruction. No power, the city badly damaged, people dead, massive destruction. Graduation cancelled, classes cancelled, the biggest disaster in their lives just occurred right at their door.

How do you figure that into the equation?
 
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s--k said:
The first dog on the schedule I would bet to win straight up is Western Kentucky. I do not see motivation being a problem. All their transfer players have elected to play this game. Last year an offensively challenged WKU team lost to an up-and-coming Georgia State team. I think WKU knows this has been a special year and they are looking to finish it off right. OC Kittley is coaching too.

Not quite sure App State will have the same motivations, actually having won 6 bowls straight (maybe taking it for granted?), but this year have a huge drop off at QB compared to their prior bowl teams. They played some of those bowls as Sun Belt Champs 2016-2017-2018-2019. 2020 they were not SBC champs, but played a weak North Texas team. App State looks down a touch and the bowl opponent this year is stronger.

I do have a big concern about the App State D and maybe their run game vs WKU D. I am not concerned about App St pass game and frankly, I don't fear or respect it at all. ULL D must have the key to shutting down this App State team, so it can be done. Can WKU copy that?

App State is like a lesser version of UTSA in my eyes. WKU did lose to UTSA twice. WKU outgained them in both games with better or even YPPs but lost by 6 and 8. Defensively it seems like App State is a team that can get some stops and force some FGAs. So that worries me. Still,
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TahoeLegend said:
The drawback I see with W Kentucky is they are located right in the epicenter of tornado destruction. No power, the city badly damaged, people dead, massive destruction. The biggest disaster in their lives just occurred right at their door.

How do you figure that into the equation?
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You have to believe they’re distracted as much as a team can be.
 
TahoeLegend said:
The drawback I see with W Kentucky is they are located right in the epicenter of tornado destruction. No power, the city badly damaged, people dead, massive destruction. Graduation cancelled, classes cancelled, the biggest disaster in their lives just occurred right at their door.

How do you figure that into the equation?
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Hard to say. WKU basketball upset Ole Miss the day after the tornado.

"Before the game started, I said I'm dedicating every last one of my points to the people and families in Bowling Green," Sharp said.

"It was definitely an emphasis for us to just come out and play hard and just give the folks back in Bowling Green something good to look forward to," Anderson said.
 
www.bgdailynews.com

WKU playing Boca Raton Bowl 'for everybody that was affected' by tornadoes

BOCA RATON, Fla. – Western Kentucky will have its hometown on its mind when it takes the field at FAU Stadium on Saturday to face Appalachian State in the Boca
www.bgdailynews.com www.bgdailynews.com

Maybe it gives them more to play for?

It's so tough to say. Bigger things than football going on for them. But then again, sports gives people something to rally around. I'm not sure I would factor it either way. If they win the players and coaches will all be saying something about how they were playing for the people back home. If they lose then it could've been a distraction.
 
UAB is 3-1 ATS as a dog this year with 2 upsets and a near upset at UTSA. Their lone ATS loss as dog was at Georgia. BYU is just 3-6 ATS as a fav this year (spread losses on lines of -12, -23.5, -6, -4, -20, -7), but only were upset once as a fav (Boise).

UTEP is 3-3 ATS as dogs this year, but when you look at just their bowl opponents, their dog record falls to 0-3 ATS. Fresno was upset twice at Haw and vs Boise.

Liberty has lost 4x as a favorite this year (Cuse, ULM, ULL, Army). EM just 3-3 ATS as dog, but all 3 of their covers they won straight up.

Utah State has pulled 5 upsets in 7 dog roles. The other two they did not cover (Boise and BYU). Ore St is 4-3 ATS as a fav and was upset 3x (Wazzou, Cal, Colo).

Marshall has only been a dog once all season (lost 30-31 at App St +7). ULL is just 3-6 ATS as a fav (spread losses on lines of -26, -14, -12.5, -18, -13, -21.5) - they won all those games.
 
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i like utah st, think they could pull it off. dunno if ill play ml or just stick to taking the points? i suppose might as well play a bit on the ml..
 
im assuming McCormick not playing is why this line has moved to sdst -3? plu i dont see any props for him so thinking that why. i he the only guy not playing? i honestly dont think it a big deal, he great and will be playing on sundays but the way to attack sdst is thru the air. i still like utsa to win.
 
2daBank said:
im assuming McCormick not playing is why this line has moved to sdst -3? plu i dont see any props for him so thinking that why. i he the only guy not playing? i honestly dont think it a big deal, he great and will be playing on sundays but the way to attack sdst is thru the air. i still like utsa to win.
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The McCormick news is maybe a week old. UTSA was still favored after he announced.
 
s--k said:
The McCormick news is maybe a week old. UTSA was still favored after he announced.
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i prob wasnt paying attention but not having him doesnt matter all that much to me, i actually think it makes sense for him to opt out. running backs only got so many carries in them, he for sure good enough to be playing sundays, and it was gonna be tough sledding vs sdst d anyways, stopping the run the one area i do think they are bout as strong as the stats suggest.
 
Imo it really boils down to whether the coach is already downplaying all of this if they lose or using it as a rallying point. I love capping motivation and have zero clue about how this goes...

Haven't heard one word about SDSU, they rather be home than at this game? I would if I lived there.
 
KJ said:
Imo it really boils down to whether the coach is already downplaying all of this if they lose or using it as a rallying point. I love capping motivation and have zero clue about how this goes...

Haven't heard one word about SDSU, they rather be home than at this game? I would if I lived there.
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i hate capping motivation! the one bowl i tried it was yesterday with odu! lol
 
2daBank said:
i hate capping motivation! the one bowl i tried it was yesterday with odu! lol
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I love it and this one is a disaster for it lol

Everything says UTSA but the coach sounds like he's been defeated which is usually cool...except he just got some ridiculous contract for a program of that size.

It's head scrabble for me
 
UTSA is gonna be missing more than Mccormick....so the one phase they had the advantage in is now even....SDST was half sick vs Utah St, but will be healthy and they have the best weapon in the nation on special teams with their punter....SDSt will play good D and win by 10-17....Harris is decent, but without a safety valve hes gonna struggle to carry this squad...
 
Araiza is amazing as a Punter.

But both teams will have outstanding Punters. UTSA's Lucas Dean was a Ray Guy semi-finalist last year, wasn't as good thisyear, but still good (Sporting News 2nd Tm AA).

Makes me think, with two punters this good in a game should create several long fields, ie Under!
 
Rusty Trombone said:
UTSA is gonna be missing more than Mccormick....so the one phase they had the advantage in is now even....SDST was half sick vs Utah St, but will be healthy and they have the best weapon in the nation on special teams with their punter....SDSt will play good D and win by 10-17....Harris is decent, but without a safety valve hes gonna struggle to carry this squad...
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i disagree about the one place utsa had a advantage, i think their passing game has a pretty big advantage over a vastly overrated aztecs pass d. i think Harris will throw all over them as every solid passing attack they have faced has done to them all year. i kinda like it seems everyone likes sdst tho. they way overrated imo. it does suck i dont know how much utsa cares to be there now but i still dont trust aztecs crappy offense to score all that much and i know they can be thrown on.
 
2daBank said:
i disagree about the one place utsa had a advantage, i think their passing game has a pretty big advantage over a vastly overrated aztecs pass d. i think Harris will throw all over them as every solid passing attack they have faced has done to them all year. i kinda like it seems everyone likes sdst tho. they way overrated imo. it does suck i dont know how much utsa cares to be there now but i still dont trust aztecs crappy offense to score all that much and i know they can be thrown on.
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LOL no one likes SDSU and even I wanted to avoid them even though UTSA is the public freak

But I simply can't now

SDSU should score 31 minimum
 
KJ said:
LOL no one likes SDSU and even I wanted to avoid them even though UTSA is the public freak

But I simply can't now

SDSU should score 31 minimum
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lol, i gotta see them score close to that to believe it,,, every post on every forum is on sdst, so yea what i go off they clearly the side being played.
 
them scoring a lot would prob serve my purposes a great deal tho, they score that pretty much a lock harris throws a ton, still doubt they will unless utsa just quits.
 
KJ, I know I don't have to tell you, but the San Diego State O is bad.
 
Going forward the only time the next few months I'll look at % stuff to consider will be the Sweet 16 games

There ya go
 
2daBank said:
i disagree about the one place utsa had a advantage, i think their passing game has a pretty big advantage over a vastly overrated aztecs pass d. i think Harris will throw all over them as every solid passing attack they have faced has done to them all year. i kinda like it seems everyone likes sdst tho. they way overrated imo. it does suck i dont know how much utsa cares to be there now but i still dont trust aztecs crappy offense to score all that much and i know they can be thrown on.
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Game played out exactly as I thought it would. UTSA played ok, but Harris couldn't do it all and missed Sincere on screen passes and his threat running the ball. SDST to win by 10-17....I guess 14 will have to do....
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Game played out exactly as I thought it would. UTSA played ok, but Harris couldn't do it all and missed Sincere on screen passes and his threat running the ball. SDST to win by 10-17....I guess 14 will have to do....
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Are you looking for a cookie?

Good on you dude but the look at me bullshit needs to hit the highway
 
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