MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 Week #2 Record: 0-0 ATS (+0.00 Units)
2006 CFB Season Record: 8-10 ATS (-3.00 Units) 44%
1 Unit = $100
I have very high personal standards when it comes to College Football handicapping and once again I was hit by a horrendous first week, something that has now developped into a trend of mine it seems. My only option is to go back to the drawing board and go back to what I do best and that is cap games the old school way. We now have a few stats and ideas to go by with teams and that should go a long way in helping out this week. I am only down $300 and the stakes are higher this week. I fully expect to hit 80% of my plays this week and anything would be disappointing. Good Luck!
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Thursday, September 7
Oregon State Beavers +8 (5 Units)
The easy cop out for this game and this selection would be to look back at their 2004 matchup here in Boise and see how the Broncos welcomed the Beavers with a big time blowout. Ideally, the Broncos should do the same to Oregon State in this game but I see things quite differently. Oregon State is coming off a 56-17 blowout win over I-AA Eastern Washington last Thursday. Now before we go any further into this writeup, let me explain to you that Eastern Washington was I-AA playoff team last season and although they lost their QB, they are still a decent team. On the flip side of things, Boise State went up against went up against Sacramento State last week, a team that was 2-9 in I-AA play and that came nowhere near the playoffs. Okay now back to business. The last time Oregon State came in here they lost 53-34 and were let down big time by a) their QB and his 4 interceptions and b) their run-defense who could not stop Zabransky from demolishing them on third down. Quartebacking this team in their opener were Matt Moore and Sean Canfield. Both looked good and both will be used in this game. Canfield the freshman should get some playing time in this one seeing that he is very reminiscent of Derek Anderson (ex-Beavers QB). In the 2004 matchup, the Beavers had a total of 58 rushing yards. This time around, RB Yvenson Bernard and his crew are ready to rumble the Boise State D-Line. In the first game, Oregon State got 209 total rushing yards on 5.5 yards per carry. Bernard had 124 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries. Bernard is not so much a speedy or powerful back but his durability is incredible and he is ready for anything when called upon. Boise State's defense was good against the run last time they met here but against Sacramento State they allowed a total of 50 rushing yards. I know that's normally good but it also shows me the holes that should be open for Bernard and his line to punch through. In the air, Moore and Canfield completed 63.3% of their passes for a nice 9.1 yards per pass attempt. Boise State can be creative on defense because they jump from a four-man front to a three-man front all the time and that makes it tougher to handle the different blitz packages. However, the QB protection was great against Eastern Washington. Boise State's defense is virtually untested against a pathetic I-AA team so it makes it hard to tell what the Beavers are going to see. What I really expect from the Beavers here is that they will establish the very good running game early and have their QB's slinging mud by halftime. Coach Mike Riley has not forgotten the game from two years ago and he has mentioned several times that all games between these two teams are usually very close but the one in 2004 was an exception. In last year's Oregon State home win over Boise State, Matt Moore was outstanding (possibly his best start of the year) and Bernard controlled the ground game and extended drives. The Beavers should be ready for this game. They came into the 2004 matchup having lost a war with LSU in overtime. This time things are a lot different and Oregon State has a running game to back up their passing attack. Boise State will stop them at times but not enough to cover this big spread.
The Boise State Broncos are coming off an impressive 45-0 shutout win over Sacramento State. As I mentioned much earlier, Sacramento State were 2-8 last year in I-AA football and this was probably the weakest of all Non-Lined opponents in Week 1. So were you impressed by the Broncos in that win? I wasn't and I don't know if their level of intensity will be high enough to beat the Beavers like they did last time Riley brought his boys to this place. The key to this game for Boise State if they want to win and if they want to cover the spread is going to be the effectiveness of their passing offense. We all know they can light up the scoreboard like no other team but this offense can be ineffective at times if they don't have a running game to back up their passing game. We saw it when Boise went to Oregon State last year and had their run game almost completely shut down. The Broncos had an outstanding 215 rushing yards on 5.1 yards per carry in their first game against Sac State. However, Oregon State's run defense made an early statement last week by allowing -14.0 rushing yard against Eastern Washington on -0.5 yards per carry. QB Jeff Zabransky is a dual threat in the air and on the ground. However, he was held to minus yardage in the visit to Oregon State last year and with the Beavers having the second of third best rush defense in the PAC 10 this season, I think the Broncos are going to frustrated by the ineffectiveness of their run game early and that is when mistakes are made in the air. The Beaver defense also made a big statement in their game last thursday by sacking the EWU quarterback five times while Boise's defense sacked the Sacramento State quarterback a big fat zero times. The Beavers defense allowed only 5.4 yards per pass attempt last week and although their secondary is probably their achilles heel this year, they are starting to get healthy again and I see them holding Boise State to 35 points or less which would mean Oregon State covers because I see them scoring 30. Head Coach Chris Peterson is obviously an offensive minded guy having been the offensive coordinator the last five years but defense is going to have to back up the offense. Boise State won't have problems scoring in this game but they will have problems stopping Oregon State from scoring which means that this game could come down to the wire. This version of Oregon State plays with a lot of energy and a lot of speed, something Boise State has thrived on for years. Zabransky was pretty much not a rushing factor in the first game and seeing that Oregon State now has videotape of Zabransky playing against them two different times, the adjustments should be made to keep this game close and to easily cover the spread and possibly win on the MoneyLine. The irony here is that Boise State has beaten only one PAC 10 team in school history and it was Oregon State back in 2004. Don't expect much of the same this time around as the Beavers are going to be ready this time.
Trend of the Game: Boise State is 1-10 Straight Up and 2-6-1 ATS lifetime versus PAC-10 schools.
Oregon State 38, Boise State 37
Saturday, September 9, 2006
Duke Blue Devils +19 (3 Units)
Believe it or not, I have decided to bet my one and only yearly game on the Blue Devils this week because I really feel like the spot is right and the Blue Devils should be able to cover this amount of points. I know what most of you are thinking...that i'm nuts. However, there are several fundamental factors that helped me come to a decision on this and give a chance to tell you about them. Duke is coming off one of their most embarassing losses in a long time as they were beaten 13-0 by Division I-AA Richmond Spiders at home. Not many excuses can be made for that one but Duke did blow several red zone chances and I am talking about having the ball inside the Richmond 10 yard line twice without scoring a damn point. This was definitely an early turning point in the Duke season because the Blue Devils were supposed to be a little bit better on both sides of the ball this year and to come out flat like that has really given a few of these guys a headshake. What I do know about Duke is that since 2001 they have been shutout in a game twice and the following game have come out with a 29 and 40 point performance. I am by no means saying that they can score either amounts in this game, however, I am saying that when things go that bad for you one week, oddsmakers tend to play around with the line a little bit and make it where the public fades you anticipating much of the same. Well it's a mistake because Duke won't play as badly as they did against Richmond. In that game, the offense was putrid but they did manage 210 total yards on 3.8 yards per play. The Quarterback position is an issue for Duke because Zack Asack was booted from the team in the summer. However, Thaddeus Lewis looked sharp in the Richmond game and sure he didn't lead his team to any points but he did average 6.2 yards per pass attempt. Wake Forest did a fabulous job holding Syracuse to only 136.0 total yards of offense last week. However, will the defense respect Duke enough to make some big plays or will they get too excited and get burned by a bunch of virtual unknowns. In 2004, the Blue Devils had only four starters returning on offense much like this year and somehow went 7-3 ATS that year. Once again, this shows the tremendous lack of respect from oddsmakers when it comes to weak teams like this. I mean these two teams have met every single year for who knows how long and no matter what anyone says, the Blue Devils come to play when they come here. Did you all forget about the 2004 meeting when Wake Forest won 24-22 here as a 17 point favorite? The Deacons defense is very solid but all they did was beat Syracuse and can their offense back up their good play? In the Cuse game, the Deacons defense was rarely on the field because the offense ran so much. I like the Blue Devils to score a touchdown or two in this one and keep it close enough to open some eyes this week.
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons, in case you have been hiding under a rock or don't follow football, are without a quarterback. Junior star starter Ben Mauck broke his arm last game against Syracuse and the Deacons don't have a valid backup ready to lead them to big things this season. After the Mauck injury last week, backup QB Riley Skinner (a freshman making his first start this week) came in and was allowed to throw one measly pass. The Deacons chose not to take any chances of blowing that game away and ended up rushing the ball 49 times in the game for 245 yards. I mean get something straight too, Syracuse is a horrible team. They were 1-10 last season and playing them is almost like playing against Richmond (as Duke). So beating Syracuse 20-10 was not impressive by any standards for Wake Forest and their level of intensity is still not where it should be. I don't see how they can raise their level of game this week with an opponent like Duke. The Deacons are sure to take this game very lightly and come out pretty much flat with a rookie leading them into battle. Once the passing game fails, Jim Grobe is going to turn to RB Micah Andrew who ran for 142 yards last week and was very impressive. Wake Forest averaged 5.0 yards per carry last week but Duke has definitely improved their run defense and I know it's only Richmond, but the Blue Devils held them to only 2.6 yards per carry. Safe enough to say that Duke will load up in the box and make the rookie beat them in the air which he might but I don't see it happening. Also, the Duke pass defense was decent. Mauck was averaging 5.1 yards per pass attempt when he went out and Duke held Richmond to 5.2 yards per pass attempt which is a good sign regardless of who you are playing. CB John Talley is the best cornerback, yes the best, in the ACC and his shutdown work on the Wake receivers should give Duke a shot at the straight up win. The Duke defense should definitely be motivated after a decent game last week and the key in this one is DT Vince Oghobaase who is one of the best D-Liners in the ACC and who can shut Andrews down if he runs up his path. I see Oghobaase recording a few sacks in this one and the Wake Forest offense will be so ineffectve that it might not matter if Duke only scores one touchdown or only scores a Field Goal. I just don't see how Wake can recover from the loss of Mauck that quickly and the underestimation of a rival like the Blue Devils is going to give us a nice cover in this one.
Trend of the Game: Wake Forest is 5-10 ATS in Conference openers since 1991.
Wake Forest 14, Duke 13
Penn State Nittany Lions +8.5 (1 Unit)
The rivalry is back on. After having been called off for the last 14 years for whatever reason, the Nittany Lions and Fighting Irish will meet once again in an attempt to renew some of the big time games they have back in the 1980's and early 1990's. I was too young to remember but from what I have been reading about those games, Penn State never went into South Bend unprepared for a game and Paterno always had his guys ready to face of the most prolific programs in the history of the game. Penn State is coming off a so-so performance in their 34-16 season opening win over the Akron Zips. I was not too impressed that they gave up 16 points to a program that lost their top RB and WR's from last season but when the competition is of low caliber like Akron, most bigger programs stoop down to that level and don't have the best games possible. Here we are this week with Notre Dame. QB Anthony Morelli didn't look horrible but he also didn't look all that great. However, Akron has one of the top pass defenses in the Nation and I give them enough credit for holding Penn State to only 34 points. In that game, Penn State managed 4.8 yards per play while Notre Dame's defense was allowing 5.0 yards per play in their game against Georgia Tech. On the ground, Penn State and RB Tony Hunt have to do a better job of running the ball. I know the O-Line is revamped and lacks experience but Paterno has been working hard on that this week because Notre Dame's defense allowed 119 GTech rushing yards on 4.3 yards per carry. Hunt had only 36 yards against Akron and he will need to do a lot better today if Penn State wants to compete. In the air, Morelli completed only 50% of his passes however he did throw for 3 touchdown passes for 6.4 yards per pass attempt. The Fighting Irish pass defense was great against the Yellow Jackets but they did allow 5.8 yards per pass attempt. Notre Dame really has improved their pass defense and they should give Penn State fits all day. However, this is going to be a tactical chess match as usual and Penn State's running game should be able to keep this game close enough to be a thriller right down to the end.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are coming off a nice 14-10 road win over the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets as eight point road favorites. Sure it wasn't their best performance but what can you do when you have the entire college football world gunning to shoot you down when they play you? USC had to go through it in 2005 and now it's Notre Dame that everyone has their sights set on beating. Test #2 of the season is a little bit easier in this one or is it? Penn State don't have that great of an offense this year but their defense remains a huge part of why they are going to keep games close this season. QB Brady Quinn looked sharp in the opener even though he was held to no touchdown passes. The Irish had 384 total yards of offense in that game on 4.9 yards per play. However, Penn State is one heck of a defensive team and they allowed only 2.9 yards per play against Akron and although the caliber of opponents was very much different, not everyone can say they held their mediocre opponent to only 2.9 yards per play. On the ground, RB Darius Walker had a sub 100 yard rushing game (which was against his goal of rushing for 100+ yards every game) but he was effective at times. He now faced the daunting task fo taking on the Nation's best Linebacker unit with All-American LB Paul Posluszny running the show. The Irish ran for 138 total yards against Georgia Tech on only 3.8 yards per carry. Penn State's defense was able to hold Akron to 33 total rushing yards on 1.0 yards per carry. Tough to run against these guys and Notre Dame will often find themselves having to air out the ball. Penn State's secondary is very young and vulnerable but they did gain a lot of confidence last game by intercepting two passes. Against Georgia Tech, Brady Quinn was sacked twice for 19 total yards of loss and since Penn State have some vicious activity in the middle of their defense, we might see another few key sacks today. Regardless, the Irish passed for 246 yards in their last game for 6.5 yards per pass attempt. As bad as Akron is, Penn State held them to only 4.5 yards per pass attempt. This is not a very good pass defense on the Nittany Lions and if Brady Quinn wants, he can probably make some big plays in this game. However, when you have a bunch of freight trains coming at you from all sides of that defense, making the big plays is not always that easy. Just ask Chad Henne what it was like to host this Penn State team last year. I see the Penn State offense having a decent performance in this game where they will try to run the ball a lot more to keep the Irish off the field offensively. In the end, Brady Quinn will make some big plays but the defense will force mistakes and Penn State will keep this within a touchdown.
Trend of the Game: Penn State is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus Notre Dame (Paterno was coaching all of them).
Notre Dame 21, Penn State 14
Idaho Vandals +17 (5 Units)
Are you kidding me? Shocking line to say the least and although when I capped this game I decided that it was too tough to decided which team was the bigger piece of crap, there is no chance in hell that the line should be this big for a team like Washington State. The Idaho Vandals are back ladies and gentlemen and that is partly thanks to their new (and old) head coach Dennis Erickson who has promised to make this is bigger and better program. The irony of this game is that Erickson used to also coach Washington State and he led them to a Bowl Game back in the 1980's. This rivalry is huge because the school are only a short drive down the highway away from each other and the fanfare is going to be insane on both sides. Idaho fans seem to have regained a new found love for their team now that Erickson has arrived and has shown the fans early that his team can compete with the big boys. That statement was made last week against Michigan State where the Vandals lost 27-17 to Michigan State but gave the Big 10 boys all the could handle. In that game Idaho managed 268.0 total yards of offense on 4.0 yards per play but they are up against a pathetic Washington State defense that allowed 484 total yards of offense against Auburn last week on 7.7 yards per play. On the ground, Idaho ran for 113 yards on 3.1 yards per carry against MSU on RB Jason Bird's 88 yards on 20 carries. Washington State can't stop the run, they have never stop the run and they won't stop the run. They allowed Auburn to tee off for 293.0 rushing yards last week on 6.7 yards per carry which means that Bird and company should have some success running the ball. In the air, Senior QB Steve Wichman played well for the magnitude of the game and completed 54.3% of his passes for 5.0 yards per pass attempt. Well, Christmas has come early because Washington State's defense allowed a whopping 10.1 yards per pass attempt against Auburn and WR Luke Smith-Anderson should be open on the deep ball quite a few times on this night. If Wichman can get some decent protection, the Vandals will have a shot at winning this game no doubt. Washington State do bring a lot of pressure on QB's (4 sacks against Auburn) but Idaho's clock control and ball movement should be enough to keep this thing close.
Washington State are coming off an embarassing 40-14 season opening road loss against Auburn and the Cougards showed clear signs of a team that was going nowhere fast this season without a defense to rely on. In that game against the Tigers, the Cougars managed only 274.0 total yards of offense on 4.5 yards per play but they should be able to do a lot more today against an Idaho defense that allowed 6.6 yards per play against the Spartans last week. This game won't be pretty, it will not be won in a blowout and things are always complicated when two down the street teams play against each other this early in the season. The home field advantage is not that big for Washington State even though Martin Stadium is going to be sold out for the home opener. On the ground, the Cougars were led by RB DeMaundray Woolridge who ran for 86 yards on nine carries against Auburn last week but hurt himself in the process and might not be able to play this week as a result. As a team, the Cougars rushed for 124.0 total yards on 4.4 yards per carry. The Idaho defensive line is the best it has been in years and although the numbers don't look good against MSU, remember that MSU is a big time running school and Idaho held them to only 175.0 rushing yards on 4.9 yards per carry. Idaho has the clearl advantage on the defensive line in this one. In the air, Washington State QB Alex Brink was outstanding in 2005 but did not find his stride against Auburn, going 11 for 24 with one interception, one touchdown and only 67 passing yards. He should have a much easier time today against a Vandals secondary that got burned for 225 passing yards last week on 9.0 yards per pass attempt. However, my question still remains whether or not the Cougars can match Idaho's new levels of intensity. Head Coach Bill Doba was on this coaching staff back when Erickson was the coach and back when Erickson coached the Vandals against the Cougars. These are just too many points to lay on a team like Washington State who have not proven anything yet. Both teams fumbled the ball twice last week in their openers and both teams had the chance to go home this week, rest, practice and come out ready to fight in what should be a great game. Idaho came into this building last year and were 12 point losers. They also kept the games close in 2000 and 1998 and something tells me they have a great shot at pulling the upset in this game.
Trend of the Game: Washington State is 3-10 ATS as a home favorite under head coach Bill Doba.
Idaho 36, Washington State 35
Troy Trojans +30 (5 Units)
The Troy Trojans continue to be a virtual unknown in the world of College Football and college football betting, but that doesn't mean that doesn't mean that they can't bring home the bacon every now and then. In 2004, Troy went 8-3 ATS and shocked the betting world by being one of the best ATS teams in the Country. The Trojans are no strangers to playing against TOP 25 teams or big name schools for that matter. In fact, they are 6-3 ATS since 2000 when playing against a ranked team. This Troy teams resembles the team of 2004 that beat Missouri in their home opener and then almost beat LSU on the road later on in the same season. The Trojans are coming off a season opening (non-lined) game against Alabama State (big rival). In that game, the Trojans amassed 429 total yard of offense (which is impressive regardless of the opponent) on 5.6 yards per play. Playing against FSU in a letdown spot is about as good as it gets for the Trojans because they love the role of the underdog and they love coming into places and shocking big teams by putting up a fight. On the ground, the Trojans rushed for 238.0 total yards on a whopping 6.3 yards per carry. RB Anthony Jones had his best game yet as a Trojan and the best part about Jones in this game is that he is from Florida and will have tons of friends and family in attendance to see him play. However, Florida State's run defense held Miami to 2 rushing yards in the game Monday Night and running on these guys won't be easy. But, Florida State has a shorter week to recover, Houllis and Boston might be out for Noles this week and the Miami win is going to surely impose some kind of hangover on this defense. QB Omar Haugabook is a JUCO transfer who threw for almost 2800 yards and 27 touchdowns last season, threw four touchdown passes in his debut and rushed for 26 yards. Haugabook can move and is one quick son of a gun. Unlike Kyle Wright, he can move and will cause some problems for the FSU defense. He averaged 5.0 yards per pass attempt in his debut and the Noles allowed 4.9 yards per pass attempt against a pathetic looking Miami offense. The defensive performance by the Noles on Monday was as good as it gets and reproducing that type of defense would be next to impossible no matter who the opponent this week. My take is that Haugabook and Jones are going to give the Noles a few more headaches than they wanted in a short week and this number is way too large for the Noles to cover in a letdown spot.
The Florida State Seminoles shocked eveyrone including myself on Monday night when they finally beat the Miami Hurricanes on an almost near perfect performance. The Noles had outstanding defense, their offense was at times shady but came up big when they had to and overall, this was a National Title Contender type of win. Now the letdown. There is no chance in hell that FSU comes into this game with the samy type of intensity as a 30 point favorite. Historically, they are garbage as huge favs at home because it usually means that oddsmakers have overreacted to the previous game's result and have blown up a line to the maximum. Well the Noles are sure to have a letdown with the short week and there is no chance that they cover that large spread. FSU managed only 176.0 total yards of offense against Miami for only 3.1 yards per play. Pathetic it seems but Miami's defense is stout and getting more yards is tough. Several teams played against Non-Lined opponents in Week 1 and Troy was one of them. However, not all teams were impressive against those I-AA opponents but the Trojans and their defense were very impressive. They allowed only 134.0 yards of total offense for 2.4 yards per play. On the ground, the Seminoles had a grand total of 1 rushing yard and even though RB Lorenzo Booker should have a good game in this one, the Trojans allowed only 2.0 yards per carry against Bama State and they have always been known to have a tough defensive line. in the air, QB Drew Weaterford asserted his name into the hero column for the Miami game and although he was only 50% accurate, he did manage to average 5.5 yards per pass attempt. However, Troy's secondary has done a great job over the years and they held Bama State to 69.0 total passing yards on 3.0 yards per pass attempt. I don't doubt that FSU's offense will have some type of success in this game but they will definitely not blow Troy out of Bowden Field in a game that follows a Miami upset win. Like I mentioned earlier, Troy usually gets up for games like this one against ranked opponents while Florida State has a notorious history when it comes to being huge favorites (check my trend below). This game could be a lot closer than people think and no matter how badly FSU wants to assert themselves as National Title Contenders, they just don't have the cadongs to do it this week against a very confident Troy Trojans team. There won't be an upset but the game will be close.
Trend of the Game: Florida State is 0-7 ATS since 2001 when favored at home by 25 or more points.
Florida State 28, Troy 10
Arkansas Razorbacks -28.5 (3 Units)
I am not a big fan of big favorites but is there one big favorite this week that will be more hungry to cover the spread than Arkansas? Only time will tell. Their opponents who need to get blown out for me to win are the Utah State Aggies. I couldn't of picked a better road opponent because they are 12-24 ATS as a road underdog since 1999 and this is a team that is going to struggle big time to score any points this week. The Aggies come in here for their second straight road game of the season as they were blown out by Wyoming last week 38-7. in that game, the Aggies lost on almost every single play as they managed only 129 total yards of offense. I just don't see what the Aggies could change this week that would see them score more than those 7 points and I don't see what they could do to ensure that Arkansas doesn't score about 60-70 points coming off that embarassing loss to USC (again). The Aggies averaged only 2.7 yards per play in that game and although the Razorbacks allowed 5.9 yards per play in their game, we should see some improvements on the Arkansas side of things. On the ground the Aggies rushed for 55.0 total yards on 2.1 yards per carry. Arkansas actually did a decent job against the run in the USC game, allowing a respectable 4.6 yards per carry. Once again, the Aggies don't have a RB threat to get that kind of yardage against the Backs in this game. In the air, QB Leon Jackson III was 10/22 with one interception and a measly 3.4 yards per pass attempt. Arkansas got killed by Booty and Trojans in the air last week but I really don't see it happening again this week. Maybe once for a touchdown but it will end there. The Razorbacks are going to rpessure Jackson all day (they had two sacks against USC) and Jackson tends to make big mistakes when pressured. This should create enough turnovers for the offense to work with. Wyoming brought pressure last week and Jackson was a PICK 6 victim once again. The Razorbacks have 9 starters back on defense and although they were completely flustered against USC, this is the one game where things should finally start to click and we see results from this defense. In the end, the Aggies will be lucky to get any points or even see the ball for that matter. This is going to be a big blowout.
The Arkansas Razorbacks are pissed, embarassed, humiliated...you name it. Another blowout loss to the USC Trojans, this time at home, was enough to have most of these guys give their heads a shake and realize that it's time to start playing some football. We are going to see several changes in the Razorbacks attack plan this week and it all starts with Freshman sensation QB Mitch Mustain and his first career start. Well from what I hear he is starting and if he does, the cover in this game should be absolutely no problem. Mustain took over the Arkansas offense in the fourth quarter and I remember the crowd going nuts when he came in. He drove all the way down the field and score on a four yard run for the touchdown. The kid should come into this game with tons of confidence and with an entire Razorback nation anxious to see him have a great game and give this program some hope. Overall, Arkansas did not have a bad game offensively, averaging 4.9 yards per play. Utah State was just horrendous on defense against Wyoming last week, allowing 460.0 total yards of offense on a whopping 5.9 yards per play. The Arkansas running game will only compliment the play of Mustain in this game and fact that the Aggies have to respect the run makes me think that Mustain could have a 350+ yard game in this one. RB Darren McFadden had a quiet game against USC but this will be his time to shine. The Aggies allowed 221.0 rushing yards last week on 4.3 yards per carry which should be enough room for McFadden to have one of his biggest rushing performances of his career. In the air, Mustain is looking at a Utah State defense that allowed 239.0 passing yards on 8.9 yards per play. The Arkansas receiving corps is experienced and is hungry for a big breakout game. Like I mentioned before, the McFadden factor is going to open up some huge opportunities for Mustain to showcase his hype and I think the kid is really ready for this challenge. He is the highest touted QB in the naton coming out of High School and the fans already love him. As for Utah State, they are hopeless at this point of the season and their defense will not have had time to make any type of adjustments for this game against an pissed of Arkansas team. Blowout time.
Trend of the Game: Utah State is 4-13 ATS their last 17 games versus current BCS schools.
Arkansas 58, Utah State 10
Texas Longhorns -2.5 (10 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
I have been saying since their game last year that I would be pounding the living crap out of Ohio State in the return game but I have since changed my mind. The big day has finally arrived and I don't think there is going to be a more hyped up game than this one all season or even in the National Title game at the end of the year. The Ohio State Buckeyes had me sold last week until they their defense started looking very shaky and their offense somewhat stuttered in the second half. I have memories of last year when Ohio State was shaky against Miami-Ohio the week before the Texas game and then they got their asses handed to them by VY and the eventual National Title champion Longhorns. Ohio State is coming off a 35-12 win over Northern Illinois last week but was anyone really that impressed? I wasn't. The Buckeyes came out of the gates flying but eventually came back down to earth in the second half and failed to show that they can play a full 60 minutes of football at a high intensity. In the game against Northern Illinois, the Buckeyes had 488.0 yards of total offense for 7.7 yards per play. That is some impressive stuff. However, this Texas defense is as good as it gets in the Country right now and they allowed North Texas a measly 2.0 yards per play in their opener. On the ground, the Buckeyes had 173.0 rushing yards on 4.8 yards per carry, thanks in part to Antonio Pittman's ability to hit the hole with such a head of steam. However, the Texas defense faced a very good North Texas rushing game and allowed only 8 total rushing yards on 0.3 yards per carry which is not good news for the Buckeyes. With quite possibly the best D-Line in the Country, I see the Longhorns shutting the Ohio State running game down in this game. In the air, QB and Heisman Trophy hopeful Troy Smith was great in against the Huskies as he passed for 297 yards on 11.7 yards per pass attempt. Wow...those are all the long bombs to WR Teddy Ginn Jr. Once again though, Texas was decent against the pass allowing 4.6 yards per pass attempt. CB Tarell Brown is the one who shut Teddy Ginn down last year and he was supposed to do it again this year. However, he is suspended for the game and Mack is going to have to make adjustments in the secondary (not a problem). Ohio State fumbled the ball twice last week, losing the ball both times and things could get worst this week as Texas forced two fumbles last week and recovered both. This could be one long game for Ohio State if they don't come out with intensity.
The Texas Longhorns...sorry the Nationa Champion Texas Longhorns didn't seem to have missed a single beat from last season as they pummeled North Texas 56-7 in their opener, making an early statement that they were back as Champions and not ready or willing to give up their title. Well, this is the real statement game and once they pull this one off, there will be no stopping this team until USC stops them in the Championship Game. The Longhorns looked just fabulous in the opener going for 410.0 total yards of offense on 5.9 yards per play, and all that with a rookie/frosh QB at the helms. Ohio State allowed 343.0 total yards to Northern Illinois at home last week and I don't see how anyone could back them in this game after seeing how they performed in their opener. They allowed an incredible 5.4 yards per play which tells me that Texas might win this one in a blowout. I know Ohio State probably didn't care much for the game against Northern Illinois but the same could be said about Texas against North Texas but we all saw who left the better impression. On the ground, RB Jamaal Charles and Selvin Young were absolute beasts as the Longhorns amassed 212.0 rushing yards on 4.8 yards per carry. That is a big big problem for Ohio State in this game because the Buckeyes already showed that they can't stop the run. They let Garret Wolfe run all over them last week for 4.6 yards per carry and it is doubtful that the problem could be fixed in time for this game. Charles and Young are going to demolish the Ohio State line to the tune of 200+ yards again. In the air, freshman QB Colt McCoy was so impressive, completing 63.2% of his passes and rushing for another 38 in his debut. He averaged 9.4 yards per pass attempt and is going up against an Ohio State secondary that allowed a whopping 6.4 yards per pass attempt against Northern Illinois last week and who are in way over their heads for this game. The Buckeyes do have a good pass rush and McCoy might make some mistakes. However, the Texas running game is going to be so succesful in this game that McCoy will have all sorts of open looks and this week he should hit his receivers for the big cash money and the seven points. Games of this magnitude are never really that close in the end and I see Texas winning this by a touchdown or more. The spread is very low and the general betting public is going to be on Ohio State for the most part but Texas gave me an answer for this game last week and that answer told me that Mack had the boys more than ready to defend their crown at all cost...even at a Buckeyed price.
Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games versus the Big 12 in the regular season.
Texas 35, Ohio State 24
Oregon Ducks -4.5 (6 Units)
The time has come to start recognize who will contend this year and who will be nothing more than just another team with a wish to be in a bigger and better Bowl Game. The Oregon Ducks are coming off a 48-10 win over the Stanford Cardinals at home last week and what was surely one of the biggest statement games we have seen this season. Oregon don't have the most prolific team in the PAC 10 but several experts are now calling for the Ducks to be the only team with a shot at knocking USC off their PAC 10 title throne and that might just happen. However, let's start by focusing on the task at hand because this is a big game for the Ducks against Pat Hill's always motivated Fresno State Bulldogs. In their win over Stanford, Oregon managed to get a total of 534.0 total yards of offense on a whopping 7.5 yards per play, clearly indicating to the rest of the Country that they have not missed a beat from the 34.5 points per game they were able to score in 2005. On the flip side of things, Fresno State's defense had the daunting task of stopping the Nevada offense (wow...that's hard) and they somewhat failed, almost losing the game while allowing 5.2 yards per play. Allowing that many yards against Oregon is deadly and it will get you in some big time trouble. on the ground, the Ducks were led by RB Jonathan Stewart who rushed for 168 yards and two touchdowns. As a team, the Ducks rushed for a whopping 298.0 yards on a crazy 7.3 yards per carry. The Fresno State defense is in even more trouble now because they had big problems stopping the run against Nevada and they allowed a big 4.9 yards per carry in that game. Stanford isn't that good against the run but neither is Fresno State and no matter where this game is being played, there is no doubt that the Ducks should have another huge rushing game. In the air, QB Dennis Dixon was once again impressive, passing for 236 yards and one touchdown on top of that running game. He averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt and although Fresno State defense did a good job containing Nevada QB Jeff Rowe, they did allow a rather high 5.4 yards per pass attempt and I smell more trouble. Definitely a wakeup call type of game for the Fresno State football program. Dixon used 8 different receivers with a reception in the Stanford game and with that much versatility, the Ducks should have no problems winning this game big whether their defense shows up or not. I see a blowout here or a win by at least 14 points. I was shocked at the low spread and even more shocked that not many people are playing this.
The Fresno State Bulldogs did win their opener against Nevada last week but I still feel like they could have easily lost had Nevada had shown more of a killer instinct. The Bulldogs won eight games last season but they have some personnel changes to make this year and although it didn't have much effect on their first game, we are going to see it this time more than ever. Pat Hill was not satisified with the Nevada game and he has worked hard defensively in practice this week to ensure that the Ducks don't come into his house and unload a 50 spot on them like the Ducks almost did last year. Sure you can call this a revenge game for Fresno having come so close to beating Oregon in their own house last year (losing by three points) but as many coaches have talked about before, revenge ends on the second play of the game and talent over mind eventually takes over. Fresno amassed 336.0 total yards of offense against Nevada on a respectable 5.4 yards per play. Oregon was not fabulous defensively against Stanford but they did hold the Cardinals and their experienced QB to 324.0 total yards on 4.7 yards per play which is a good sign for us. On the ground, RB Dwayne Wright is back in the starting position and he ran for 158 yards and 3 touchdowns. Impressive but what about the Ducks run defense? Well, Oregon allowed 100 yards on the ground to Stanford but also alllowed only 2.9 yards per carry indicating that the transitional D-Line is working just fine for now. Wright could have a big game but once Oregon goes up a touchdown or two, Fresno will have to start throwing the ball. That leads us to QB Tom Brandstater who looked good in his first start and who did all the small things right. He completed 66.7% of his passes but all for short yardage and managed to stay interception free. However, as I mentioned earlier, Oregon's pass defense is very susceptible and vulnerable to QB's who can air it out but it has become evident that Pat Hill does no trust Brandstater with deep bombs which is what you need to trade punches with Oregon. Brandstater might buckle under the pressure of being down a few scores and I can guarantee he gets picked off at least once in this game. The Bulldogs are clearly not going to win the rushing battle in this game and since I see them being down early, they are going to have to rely on new players to get the job done and attempt to keep this one close. I think this is somewhat of letdown game for Fresno State although revenge is on their minds. Oregon is just too good this year and could become one of the most underrated teams in College Football. Expect to see the Ducks ranked a little bit higher than #20 next week as they lay a licking on Fresno State.
Trend of the Game: Oregon is 15-3 ATS on Grass the last six years and 24-5 ATS in their road openers the last 30 years.
Oregon 45, Fresno State 33
RECAP:
Oregon State +8
Duke +19
Penn State +8.5
Idaho +17
Troy +30
Arkansas -28.5
Texas -2.5 (POW)
Oregon -4.5
:cheers:
2006 CFB Season Record: 8-10 ATS (-3.00 Units) 44%
1 Unit = $100
I have very high personal standards when it comes to College Football handicapping and once again I was hit by a horrendous first week, something that has now developped into a trend of mine it seems. My only option is to go back to the drawing board and go back to what I do best and that is cap games the old school way. We now have a few stats and ideas to go by with teams and that should go a long way in helping out this week. I am only down $300 and the stakes are higher this week. I fully expect to hit 80% of my plays this week and anything would be disappointing. Good Luck!
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Thursday, September 7
Oregon State Beavers +8 (5 Units)
The easy cop out for this game and this selection would be to look back at their 2004 matchup here in Boise and see how the Broncos welcomed the Beavers with a big time blowout. Ideally, the Broncos should do the same to Oregon State in this game but I see things quite differently. Oregon State is coming off a 56-17 blowout win over I-AA Eastern Washington last Thursday. Now before we go any further into this writeup, let me explain to you that Eastern Washington was I-AA playoff team last season and although they lost their QB, they are still a decent team. On the flip side of things, Boise State went up against went up against Sacramento State last week, a team that was 2-9 in I-AA play and that came nowhere near the playoffs. Okay now back to business. The last time Oregon State came in here they lost 53-34 and were let down big time by a) their QB and his 4 interceptions and b) their run-defense who could not stop Zabransky from demolishing them on third down. Quartebacking this team in their opener were Matt Moore and Sean Canfield. Both looked good and both will be used in this game. Canfield the freshman should get some playing time in this one seeing that he is very reminiscent of Derek Anderson (ex-Beavers QB). In the 2004 matchup, the Beavers had a total of 58 rushing yards. This time around, RB Yvenson Bernard and his crew are ready to rumble the Boise State D-Line. In the first game, Oregon State got 209 total rushing yards on 5.5 yards per carry. Bernard had 124 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries. Bernard is not so much a speedy or powerful back but his durability is incredible and he is ready for anything when called upon. Boise State's defense was good against the run last time they met here but against Sacramento State they allowed a total of 50 rushing yards. I know that's normally good but it also shows me the holes that should be open for Bernard and his line to punch through. In the air, Moore and Canfield completed 63.3% of their passes for a nice 9.1 yards per pass attempt. Boise State can be creative on defense because they jump from a four-man front to a three-man front all the time and that makes it tougher to handle the different blitz packages. However, the QB protection was great against Eastern Washington. Boise State's defense is virtually untested against a pathetic I-AA team so it makes it hard to tell what the Beavers are going to see. What I really expect from the Beavers here is that they will establish the very good running game early and have their QB's slinging mud by halftime. Coach Mike Riley has not forgotten the game from two years ago and he has mentioned several times that all games between these two teams are usually very close but the one in 2004 was an exception. In last year's Oregon State home win over Boise State, Matt Moore was outstanding (possibly his best start of the year) and Bernard controlled the ground game and extended drives. The Beavers should be ready for this game. They came into the 2004 matchup having lost a war with LSU in overtime. This time things are a lot different and Oregon State has a running game to back up their passing attack. Boise State will stop them at times but not enough to cover this big spread.
The Boise State Broncos are coming off an impressive 45-0 shutout win over Sacramento State. As I mentioned much earlier, Sacramento State were 2-8 last year in I-AA football and this was probably the weakest of all Non-Lined opponents in Week 1. So were you impressed by the Broncos in that win? I wasn't and I don't know if their level of intensity will be high enough to beat the Beavers like they did last time Riley brought his boys to this place. The key to this game for Boise State if they want to win and if they want to cover the spread is going to be the effectiveness of their passing offense. We all know they can light up the scoreboard like no other team but this offense can be ineffective at times if they don't have a running game to back up their passing game. We saw it when Boise went to Oregon State last year and had their run game almost completely shut down. The Broncos had an outstanding 215 rushing yards on 5.1 yards per carry in their first game against Sac State. However, Oregon State's run defense made an early statement last week by allowing -14.0 rushing yard against Eastern Washington on -0.5 yards per carry. QB Jeff Zabransky is a dual threat in the air and on the ground. However, he was held to minus yardage in the visit to Oregon State last year and with the Beavers having the second of third best rush defense in the PAC 10 this season, I think the Broncos are going to frustrated by the ineffectiveness of their run game early and that is when mistakes are made in the air. The Beaver defense also made a big statement in their game last thursday by sacking the EWU quarterback five times while Boise's defense sacked the Sacramento State quarterback a big fat zero times. The Beavers defense allowed only 5.4 yards per pass attempt last week and although their secondary is probably their achilles heel this year, they are starting to get healthy again and I see them holding Boise State to 35 points or less which would mean Oregon State covers because I see them scoring 30. Head Coach Chris Peterson is obviously an offensive minded guy having been the offensive coordinator the last five years but defense is going to have to back up the offense. Boise State won't have problems scoring in this game but they will have problems stopping Oregon State from scoring which means that this game could come down to the wire. This version of Oregon State plays with a lot of energy and a lot of speed, something Boise State has thrived on for years. Zabransky was pretty much not a rushing factor in the first game and seeing that Oregon State now has videotape of Zabransky playing against them two different times, the adjustments should be made to keep this game close and to easily cover the spread and possibly win on the MoneyLine. The irony here is that Boise State has beaten only one PAC 10 team in school history and it was Oregon State back in 2004. Don't expect much of the same this time around as the Beavers are going to be ready this time.
Trend of the Game: Boise State is 1-10 Straight Up and 2-6-1 ATS lifetime versus PAC-10 schools.
Oregon State 38, Boise State 37
Saturday, September 9, 2006
Duke Blue Devils +19 (3 Units)
Believe it or not, I have decided to bet my one and only yearly game on the Blue Devils this week because I really feel like the spot is right and the Blue Devils should be able to cover this amount of points. I know what most of you are thinking...that i'm nuts. However, there are several fundamental factors that helped me come to a decision on this and give a chance to tell you about them. Duke is coming off one of their most embarassing losses in a long time as they were beaten 13-0 by Division I-AA Richmond Spiders at home. Not many excuses can be made for that one but Duke did blow several red zone chances and I am talking about having the ball inside the Richmond 10 yard line twice without scoring a damn point. This was definitely an early turning point in the Duke season because the Blue Devils were supposed to be a little bit better on both sides of the ball this year and to come out flat like that has really given a few of these guys a headshake. What I do know about Duke is that since 2001 they have been shutout in a game twice and the following game have come out with a 29 and 40 point performance. I am by no means saying that they can score either amounts in this game, however, I am saying that when things go that bad for you one week, oddsmakers tend to play around with the line a little bit and make it where the public fades you anticipating much of the same. Well it's a mistake because Duke won't play as badly as they did against Richmond. In that game, the offense was putrid but they did manage 210 total yards on 3.8 yards per play. The Quarterback position is an issue for Duke because Zack Asack was booted from the team in the summer. However, Thaddeus Lewis looked sharp in the Richmond game and sure he didn't lead his team to any points but he did average 6.2 yards per pass attempt. Wake Forest did a fabulous job holding Syracuse to only 136.0 total yards of offense last week. However, will the defense respect Duke enough to make some big plays or will they get too excited and get burned by a bunch of virtual unknowns. In 2004, the Blue Devils had only four starters returning on offense much like this year and somehow went 7-3 ATS that year. Once again, this shows the tremendous lack of respect from oddsmakers when it comes to weak teams like this. I mean these two teams have met every single year for who knows how long and no matter what anyone says, the Blue Devils come to play when they come here. Did you all forget about the 2004 meeting when Wake Forest won 24-22 here as a 17 point favorite? The Deacons defense is very solid but all they did was beat Syracuse and can their offense back up their good play? In the Cuse game, the Deacons defense was rarely on the field because the offense ran so much. I like the Blue Devils to score a touchdown or two in this one and keep it close enough to open some eyes this week.
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons, in case you have been hiding under a rock or don't follow football, are without a quarterback. Junior star starter Ben Mauck broke his arm last game against Syracuse and the Deacons don't have a valid backup ready to lead them to big things this season. After the Mauck injury last week, backup QB Riley Skinner (a freshman making his first start this week) came in and was allowed to throw one measly pass. The Deacons chose not to take any chances of blowing that game away and ended up rushing the ball 49 times in the game for 245 yards. I mean get something straight too, Syracuse is a horrible team. They were 1-10 last season and playing them is almost like playing against Richmond (as Duke). So beating Syracuse 20-10 was not impressive by any standards for Wake Forest and their level of intensity is still not where it should be. I don't see how they can raise their level of game this week with an opponent like Duke. The Deacons are sure to take this game very lightly and come out pretty much flat with a rookie leading them into battle. Once the passing game fails, Jim Grobe is going to turn to RB Micah Andrew who ran for 142 yards last week and was very impressive. Wake Forest averaged 5.0 yards per carry last week but Duke has definitely improved their run defense and I know it's only Richmond, but the Blue Devils held them to only 2.6 yards per carry. Safe enough to say that Duke will load up in the box and make the rookie beat them in the air which he might but I don't see it happening. Also, the Duke pass defense was decent. Mauck was averaging 5.1 yards per pass attempt when he went out and Duke held Richmond to 5.2 yards per pass attempt which is a good sign regardless of who you are playing. CB John Talley is the best cornerback, yes the best, in the ACC and his shutdown work on the Wake receivers should give Duke a shot at the straight up win. The Duke defense should definitely be motivated after a decent game last week and the key in this one is DT Vince Oghobaase who is one of the best D-Liners in the ACC and who can shut Andrews down if he runs up his path. I see Oghobaase recording a few sacks in this one and the Wake Forest offense will be so ineffectve that it might not matter if Duke only scores one touchdown or only scores a Field Goal. I just don't see how Wake can recover from the loss of Mauck that quickly and the underestimation of a rival like the Blue Devils is going to give us a nice cover in this one.
Trend of the Game: Wake Forest is 5-10 ATS in Conference openers since 1991.
Wake Forest 14, Duke 13
Penn State Nittany Lions +8.5 (1 Unit)
The rivalry is back on. After having been called off for the last 14 years for whatever reason, the Nittany Lions and Fighting Irish will meet once again in an attempt to renew some of the big time games they have back in the 1980's and early 1990's. I was too young to remember but from what I have been reading about those games, Penn State never went into South Bend unprepared for a game and Paterno always had his guys ready to face of the most prolific programs in the history of the game. Penn State is coming off a so-so performance in their 34-16 season opening win over the Akron Zips. I was not too impressed that they gave up 16 points to a program that lost their top RB and WR's from last season but when the competition is of low caliber like Akron, most bigger programs stoop down to that level and don't have the best games possible. Here we are this week with Notre Dame. QB Anthony Morelli didn't look horrible but he also didn't look all that great. However, Akron has one of the top pass defenses in the Nation and I give them enough credit for holding Penn State to only 34 points. In that game, Penn State managed 4.8 yards per play while Notre Dame's defense was allowing 5.0 yards per play in their game against Georgia Tech. On the ground, Penn State and RB Tony Hunt have to do a better job of running the ball. I know the O-Line is revamped and lacks experience but Paterno has been working hard on that this week because Notre Dame's defense allowed 119 GTech rushing yards on 4.3 yards per carry. Hunt had only 36 yards against Akron and he will need to do a lot better today if Penn State wants to compete. In the air, Morelli completed only 50% of his passes however he did throw for 3 touchdown passes for 6.4 yards per pass attempt. The Fighting Irish pass defense was great against the Yellow Jackets but they did allow 5.8 yards per pass attempt. Notre Dame really has improved their pass defense and they should give Penn State fits all day. However, this is going to be a tactical chess match as usual and Penn State's running game should be able to keep this game close enough to be a thriller right down to the end.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are coming off a nice 14-10 road win over the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets as eight point road favorites. Sure it wasn't their best performance but what can you do when you have the entire college football world gunning to shoot you down when they play you? USC had to go through it in 2005 and now it's Notre Dame that everyone has their sights set on beating. Test #2 of the season is a little bit easier in this one or is it? Penn State don't have that great of an offense this year but their defense remains a huge part of why they are going to keep games close this season. QB Brady Quinn looked sharp in the opener even though he was held to no touchdown passes. The Irish had 384 total yards of offense in that game on 4.9 yards per play. However, Penn State is one heck of a defensive team and they allowed only 2.9 yards per play against Akron and although the caliber of opponents was very much different, not everyone can say they held their mediocre opponent to only 2.9 yards per play. On the ground, RB Darius Walker had a sub 100 yard rushing game (which was against his goal of rushing for 100+ yards every game) but he was effective at times. He now faced the daunting task fo taking on the Nation's best Linebacker unit with All-American LB Paul Posluszny running the show. The Irish ran for 138 total yards against Georgia Tech on only 3.8 yards per carry. Penn State's defense was able to hold Akron to 33 total rushing yards on 1.0 yards per carry. Tough to run against these guys and Notre Dame will often find themselves having to air out the ball. Penn State's secondary is very young and vulnerable but they did gain a lot of confidence last game by intercepting two passes. Against Georgia Tech, Brady Quinn was sacked twice for 19 total yards of loss and since Penn State have some vicious activity in the middle of their defense, we might see another few key sacks today. Regardless, the Irish passed for 246 yards in their last game for 6.5 yards per pass attempt. As bad as Akron is, Penn State held them to only 4.5 yards per pass attempt. This is not a very good pass defense on the Nittany Lions and if Brady Quinn wants, he can probably make some big plays in this game. However, when you have a bunch of freight trains coming at you from all sides of that defense, making the big plays is not always that easy. Just ask Chad Henne what it was like to host this Penn State team last year. I see the Penn State offense having a decent performance in this game where they will try to run the ball a lot more to keep the Irish off the field offensively. In the end, Brady Quinn will make some big plays but the defense will force mistakes and Penn State will keep this within a touchdown.
Trend of the Game: Penn State is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus Notre Dame (Paterno was coaching all of them).
Notre Dame 21, Penn State 14
Idaho Vandals +17 (5 Units)
Are you kidding me? Shocking line to say the least and although when I capped this game I decided that it was too tough to decided which team was the bigger piece of crap, there is no chance in hell that the line should be this big for a team like Washington State. The Idaho Vandals are back ladies and gentlemen and that is partly thanks to their new (and old) head coach Dennis Erickson who has promised to make this is bigger and better program. The irony of this game is that Erickson used to also coach Washington State and he led them to a Bowl Game back in the 1980's. This rivalry is huge because the school are only a short drive down the highway away from each other and the fanfare is going to be insane on both sides. Idaho fans seem to have regained a new found love for their team now that Erickson has arrived and has shown the fans early that his team can compete with the big boys. That statement was made last week against Michigan State where the Vandals lost 27-17 to Michigan State but gave the Big 10 boys all the could handle. In that game Idaho managed 268.0 total yards of offense on 4.0 yards per play but they are up against a pathetic Washington State defense that allowed 484 total yards of offense against Auburn last week on 7.7 yards per play. On the ground, Idaho ran for 113 yards on 3.1 yards per carry against MSU on RB Jason Bird's 88 yards on 20 carries. Washington State can't stop the run, they have never stop the run and they won't stop the run. They allowed Auburn to tee off for 293.0 rushing yards last week on 6.7 yards per carry which means that Bird and company should have some success running the ball. In the air, Senior QB Steve Wichman played well for the magnitude of the game and completed 54.3% of his passes for 5.0 yards per pass attempt. Well, Christmas has come early because Washington State's defense allowed a whopping 10.1 yards per pass attempt against Auburn and WR Luke Smith-Anderson should be open on the deep ball quite a few times on this night. If Wichman can get some decent protection, the Vandals will have a shot at winning this game no doubt. Washington State do bring a lot of pressure on QB's (4 sacks against Auburn) but Idaho's clock control and ball movement should be enough to keep this thing close.
Washington State are coming off an embarassing 40-14 season opening road loss against Auburn and the Cougards showed clear signs of a team that was going nowhere fast this season without a defense to rely on. In that game against the Tigers, the Cougars managed only 274.0 total yards of offense on 4.5 yards per play but they should be able to do a lot more today against an Idaho defense that allowed 6.6 yards per play against the Spartans last week. This game won't be pretty, it will not be won in a blowout and things are always complicated when two down the street teams play against each other this early in the season. The home field advantage is not that big for Washington State even though Martin Stadium is going to be sold out for the home opener. On the ground, the Cougars were led by RB DeMaundray Woolridge who ran for 86 yards on nine carries against Auburn last week but hurt himself in the process and might not be able to play this week as a result. As a team, the Cougars rushed for 124.0 total yards on 4.4 yards per carry. The Idaho defensive line is the best it has been in years and although the numbers don't look good against MSU, remember that MSU is a big time running school and Idaho held them to only 175.0 rushing yards on 4.9 yards per carry. Idaho has the clearl advantage on the defensive line in this one. In the air, Washington State QB Alex Brink was outstanding in 2005 but did not find his stride against Auburn, going 11 for 24 with one interception, one touchdown and only 67 passing yards. He should have a much easier time today against a Vandals secondary that got burned for 225 passing yards last week on 9.0 yards per pass attempt. However, my question still remains whether or not the Cougars can match Idaho's new levels of intensity. Head Coach Bill Doba was on this coaching staff back when Erickson was the coach and back when Erickson coached the Vandals against the Cougars. These are just too many points to lay on a team like Washington State who have not proven anything yet. Both teams fumbled the ball twice last week in their openers and both teams had the chance to go home this week, rest, practice and come out ready to fight in what should be a great game. Idaho came into this building last year and were 12 point losers. They also kept the games close in 2000 and 1998 and something tells me they have a great shot at pulling the upset in this game.
Trend of the Game: Washington State is 3-10 ATS as a home favorite under head coach Bill Doba.
Idaho 36, Washington State 35
Troy Trojans +30 (5 Units)
The Troy Trojans continue to be a virtual unknown in the world of College Football and college football betting, but that doesn't mean that doesn't mean that they can't bring home the bacon every now and then. In 2004, Troy went 8-3 ATS and shocked the betting world by being one of the best ATS teams in the Country. The Trojans are no strangers to playing against TOP 25 teams or big name schools for that matter. In fact, they are 6-3 ATS since 2000 when playing against a ranked team. This Troy teams resembles the team of 2004 that beat Missouri in their home opener and then almost beat LSU on the road later on in the same season. The Trojans are coming off a season opening (non-lined) game against Alabama State (big rival). In that game, the Trojans amassed 429 total yard of offense (which is impressive regardless of the opponent) on 5.6 yards per play. Playing against FSU in a letdown spot is about as good as it gets for the Trojans because they love the role of the underdog and they love coming into places and shocking big teams by putting up a fight. On the ground, the Trojans rushed for 238.0 total yards on a whopping 6.3 yards per carry. RB Anthony Jones had his best game yet as a Trojan and the best part about Jones in this game is that he is from Florida and will have tons of friends and family in attendance to see him play. However, Florida State's run defense held Miami to 2 rushing yards in the game Monday Night and running on these guys won't be easy. But, Florida State has a shorter week to recover, Houllis and Boston might be out for Noles this week and the Miami win is going to surely impose some kind of hangover on this defense. QB Omar Haugabook is a JUCO transfer who threw for almost 2800 yards and 27 touchdowns last season, threw four touchdown passes in his debut and rushed for 26 yards. Haugabook can move and is one quick son of a gun. Unlike Kyle Wright, he can move and will cause some problems for the FSU defense. He averaged 5.0 yards per pass attempt in his debut and the Noles allowed 4.9 yards per pass attempt against a pathetic looking Miami offense. The defensive performance by the Noles on Monday was as good as it gets and reproducing that type of defense would be next to impossible no matter who the opponent this week. My take is that Haugabook and Jones are going to give the Noles a few more headaches than they wanted in a short week and this number is way too large for the Noles to cover in a letdown spot.
The Florida State Seminoles shocked eveyrone including myself on Monday night when they finally beat the Miami Hurricanes on an almost near perfect performance. The Noles had outstanding defense, their offense was at times shady but came up big when they had to and overall, this was a National Title Contender type of win. Now the letdown. There is no chance in hell that FSU comes into this game with the samy type of intensity as a 30 point favorite. Historically, they are garbage as huge favs at home because it usually means that oddsmakers have overreacted to the previous game's result and have blown up a line to the maximum. Well the Noles are sure to have a letdown with the short week and there is no chance that they cover that large spread. FSU managed only 176.0 total yards of offense against Miami for only 3.1 yards per play. Pathetic it seems but Miami's defense is stout and getting more yards is tough. Several teams played against Non-Lined opponents in Week 1 and Troy was one of them. However, not all teams were impressive against those I-AA opponents but the Trojans and their defense were very impressive. They allowed only 134.0 yards of total offense for 2.4 yards per play. On the ground, the Seminoles had a grand total of 1 rushing yard and even though RB Lorenzo Booker should have a good game in this one, the Trojans allowed only 2.0 yards per carry against Bama State and they have always been known to have a tough defensive line. in the air, QB Drew Weaterford asserted his name into the hero column for the Miami game and although he was only 50% accurate, he did manage to average 5.5 yards per pass attempt. However, Troy's secondary has done a great job over the years and they held Bama State to 69.0 total passing yards on 3.0 yards per pass attempt. I don't doubt that FSU's offense will have some type of success in this game but they will definitely not blow Troy out of Bowden Field in a game that follows a Miami upset win. Like I mentioned earlier, Troy usually gets up for games like this one against ranked opponents while Florida State has a notorious history when it comes to being huge favorites (check my trend below). This game could be a lot closer than people think and no matter how badly FSU wants to assert themselves as National Title Contenders, they just don't have the cadongs to do it this week against a very confident Troy Trojans team. There won't be an upset but the game will be close.
Trend of the Game: Florida State is 0-7 ATS since 2001 when favored at home by 25 or more points.
Florida State 28, Troy 10
Arkansas Razorbacks -28.5 (3 Units)
I am not a big fan of big favorites but is there one big favorite this week that will be more hungry to cover the spread than Arkansas? Only time will tell. Their opponents who need to get blown out for me to win are the Utah State Aggies. I couldn't of picked a better road opponent because they are 12-24 ATS as a road underdog since 1999 and this is a team that is going to struggle big time to score any points this week. The Aggies come in here for their second straight road game of the season as they were blown out by Wyoming last week 38-7. in that game, the Aggies lost on almost every single play as they managed only 129 total yards of offense. I just don't see what the Aggies could change this week that would see them score more than those 7 points and I don't see what they could do to ensure that Arkansas doesn't score about 60-70 points coming off that embarassing loss to USC (again). The Aggies averaged only 2.7 yards per play in that game and although the Razorbacks allowed 5.9 yards per play in their game, we should see some improvements on the Arkansas side of things. On the ground the Aggies rushed for 55.0 total yards on 2.1 yards per carry. Arkansas actually did a decent job against the run in the USC game, allowing a respectable 4.6 yards per carry. Once again, the Aggies don't have a RB threat to get that kind of yardage against the Backs in this game. In the air, QB Leon Jackson III was 10/22 with one interception and a measly 3.4 yards per pass attempt. Arkansas got killed by Booty and Trojans in the air last week but I really don't see it happening again this week. Maybe once for a touchdown but it will end there. The Razorbacks are going to rpessure Jackson all day (they had two sacks against USC) and Jackson tends to make big mistakes when pressured. This should create enough turnovers for the offense to work with. Wyoming brought pressure last week and Jackson was a PICK 6 victim once again. The Razorbacks have 9 starters back on defense and although they were completely flustered against USC, this is the one game where things should finally start to click and we see results from this defense. In the end, the Aggies will be lucky to get any points or even see the ball for that matter. This is going to be a big blowout.
The Arkansas Razorbacks are pissed, embarassed, humiliated...you name it. Another blowout loss to the USC Trojans, this time at home, was enough to have most of these guys give their heads a shake and realize that it's time to start playing some football. We are going to see several changes in the Razorbacks attack plan this week and it all starts with Freshman sensation QB Mitch Mustain and his first career start. Well from what I hear he is starting and if he does, the cover in this game should be absolutely no problem. Mustain took over the Arkansas offense in the fourth quarter and I remember the crowd going nuts when he came in. He drove all the way down the field and score on a four yard run for the touchdown. The kid should come into this game with tons of confidence and with an entire Razorback nation anxious to see him have a great game and give this program some hope. Overall, Arkansas did not have a bad game offensively, averaging 4.9 yards per play. Utah State was just horrendous on defense against Wyoming last week, allowing 460.0 total yards of offense on a whopping 5.9 yards per play. The Arkansas running game will only compliment the play of Mustain in this game and fact that the Aggies have to respect the run makes me think that Mustain could have a 350+ yard game in this one. RB Darren McFadden had a quiet game against USC but this will be his time to shine. The Aggies allowed 221.0 rushing yards last week on 4.3 yards per carry which should be enough room for McFadden to have one of his biggest rushing performances of his career. In the air, Mustain is looking at a Utah State defense that allowed 239.0 passing yards on 8.9 yards per play. The Arkansas receiving corps is experienced and is hungry for a big breakout game. Like I mentioned before, the McFadden factor is going to open up some huge opportunities for Mustain to showcase his hype and I think the kid is really ready for this challenge. He is the highest touted QB in the naton coming out of High School and the fans already love him. As for Utah State, they are hopeless at this point of the season and their defense will not have had time to make any type of adjustments for this game against an pissed of Arkansas team. Blowout time.
Trend of the Game: Utah State is 4-13 ATS their last 17 games versus current BCS schools.
Arkansas 58, Utah State 10
Texas Longhorns -2.5 (10 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
I have been saying since their game last year that I would be pounding the living crap out of Ohio State in the return game but I have since changed my mind. The big day has finally arrived and I don't think there is going to be a more hyped up game than this one all season or even in the National Title game at the end of the year. The Ohio State Buckeyes had me sold last week until they their defense started looking very shaky and their offense somewhat stuttered in the second half. I have memories of last year when Ohio State was shaky against Miami-Ohio the week before the Texas game and then they got their asses handed to them by VY and the eventual National Title champion Longhorns. Ohio State is coming off a 35-12 win over Northern Illinois last week but was anyone really that impressed? I wasn't. The Buckeyes came out of the gates flying but eventually came back down to earth in the second half and failed to show that they can play a full 60 minutes of football at a high intensity. In the game against Northern Illinois, the Buckeyes had 488.0 yards of total offense for 7.7 yards per play. That is some impressive stuff. However, this Texas defense is as good as it gets in the Country right now and they allowed North Texas a measly 2.0 yards per play in their opener. On the ground, the Buckeyes had 173.0 rushing yards on 4.8 yards per carry, thanks in part to Antonio Pittman's ability to hit the hole with such a head of steam. However, the Texas defense faced a very good North Texas rushing game and allowed only 8 total rushing yards on 0.3 yards per carry which is not good news for the Buckeyes. With quite possibly the best D-Line in the Country, I see the Longhorns shutting the Ohio State running game down in this game. In the air, QB and Heisman Trophy hopeful Troy Smith was great in against the Huskies as he passed for 297 yards on 11.7 yards per pass attempt. Wow...those are all the long bombs to WR Teddy Ginn Jr. Once again though, Texas was decent against the pass allowing 4.6 yards per pass attempt. CB Tarell Brown is the one who shut Teddy Ginn down last year and he was supposed to do it again this year. However, he is suspended for the game and Mack is going to have to make adjustments in the secondary (not a problem). Ohio State fumbled the ball twice last week, losing the ball both times and things could get worst this week as Texas forced two fumbles last week and recovered both. This could be one long game for Ohio State if they don't come out with intensity.
The Texas Longhorns...sorry the Nationa Champion Texas Longhorns didn't seem to have missed a single beat from last season as they pummeled North Texas 56-7 in their opener, making an early statement that they were back as Champions and not ready or willing to give up their title. Well, this is the real statement game and once they pull this one off, there will be no stopping this team until USC stops them in the Championship Game. The Longhorns looked just fabulous in the opener going for 410.0 total yards of offense on 5.9 yards per play, and all that with a rookie/frosh QB at the helms. Ohio State allowed 343.0 total yards to Northern Illinois at home last week and I don't see how anyone could back them in this game after seeing how they performed in their opener. They allowed an incredible 5.4 yards per play which tells me that Texas might win this one in a blowout. I know Ohio State probably didn't care much for the game against Northern Illinois but the same could be said about Texas against North Texas but we all saw who left the better impression. On the ground, RB Jamaal Charles and Selvin Young were absolute beasts as the Longhorns amassed 212.0 rushing yards on 4.8 yards per carry. That is a big big problem for Ohio State in this game because the Buckeyes already showed that they can't stop the run. They let Garret Wolfe run all over them last week for 4.6 yards per carry and it is doubtful that the problem could be fixed in time for this game. Charles and Young are going to demolish the Ohio State line to the tune of 200+ yards again. In the air, freshman QB Colt McCoy was so impressive, completing 63.2% of his passes and rushing for another 38 in his debut. He averaged 9.4 yards per pass attempt and is going up against an Ohio State secondary that allowed a whopping 6.4 yards per pass attempt against Northern Illinois last week and who are in way over their heads for this game. The Buckeyes do have a good pass rush and McCoy might make some mistakes. However, the Texas running game is going to be so succesful in this game that McCoy will have all sorts of open looks and this week he should hit his receivers for the big cash money and the seven points. Games of this magnitude are never really that close in the end and I see Texas winning this by a touchdown or more. The spread is very low and the general betting public is going to be on Ohio State for the most part but Texas gave me an answer for this game last week and that answer told me that Mack had the boys more than ready to defend their crown at all cost...even at a Buckeyed price.
Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games versus the Big 12 in the regular season.
Texas 35, Ohio State 24
Oregon Ducks -4.5 (6 Units)
The time has come to start recognize who will contend this year and who will be nothing more than just another team with a wish to be in a bigger and better Bowl Game. The Oregon Ducks are coming off a 48-10 win over the Stanford Cardinals at home last week and what was surely one of the biggest statement games we have seen this season. Oregon don't have the most prolific team in the PAC 10 but several experts are now calling for the Ducks to be the only team with a shot at knocking USC off their PAC 10 title throne and that might just happen. However, let's start by focusing on the task at hand because this is a big game for the Ducks against Pat Hill's always motivated Fresno State Bulldogs. In their win over Stanford, Oregon managed to get a total of 534.0 total yards of offense on a whopping 7.5 yards per play, clearly indicating to the rest of the Country that they have not missed a beat from the 34.5 points per game they were able to score in 2005. On the flip side of things, Fresno State's defense had the daunting task of stopping the Nevada offense (wow...that's hard) and they somewhat failed, almost losing the game while allowing 5.2 yards per play. Allowing that many yards against Oregon is deadly and it will get you in some big time trouble. on the ground, the Ducks were led by RB Jonathan Stewart who rushed for 168 yards and two touchdowns. As a team, the Ducks rushed for a whopping 298.0 yards on a crazy 7.3 yards per carry. The Fresno State defense is in even more trouble now because they had big problems stopping the run against Nevada and they allowed a big 4.9 yards per carry in that game. Stanford isn't that good against the run but neither is Fresno State and no matter where this game is being played, there is no doubt that the Ducks should have another huge rushing game. In the air, QB Dennis Dixon was once again impressive, passing for 236 yards and one touchdown on top of that running game. He averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt and although Fresno State defense did a good job containing Nevada QB Jeff Rowe, they did allow a rather high 5.4 yards per pass attempt and I smell more trouble. Definitely a wakeup call type of game for the Fresno State football program. Dixon used 8 different receivers with a reception in the Stanford game and with that much versatility, the Ducks should have no problems winning this game big whether their defense shows up or not. I see a blowout here or a win by at least 14 points. I was shocked at the low spread and even more shocked that not many people are playing this.
The Fresno State Bulldogs did win their opener against Nevada last week but I still feel like they could have easily lost had Nevada had shown more of a killer instinct. The Bulldogs won eight games last season but they have some personnel changes to make this year and although it didn't have much effect on their first game, we are going to see it this time more than ever. Pat Hill was not satisified with the Nevada game and he has worked hard defensively in practice this week to ensure that the Ducks don't come into his house and unload a 50 spot on them like the Ducks almost did last year. Sure you can call this a revenge game for Fresno having come so close to beating Oregon in their own house last year (losing by three points) but as many coaches have talked about before, revenge ends on the second play of the game and talent over mind eventually takes over. Fresno amassed 336.0 total yards of offense against Nevada on a respectable 5.4 yards per play. Oregon was not fabulous defensively against Stanford but they did hold the Cardinals and their experienced QB to 324.0 total yards on 4.7 yards per play which is a good sign for us. On the ground, RB Dwayne Wright is back in the starting position and he ran for 158 yards and 3 touchdowns. Impressive but what about the Ducks run defense? Well, Oregon allowed 100 yards on the ground to Stanford but also alllowed only 2.9 yards per carry indicating that the transitional D-Line is working just fine for now. Wright could have a big game but once Oregon goes up a touchdown or two, Fresno will have to start throwing the ball. That leads us to QB Tom Brandstater who looked good in his first start and who did all the small things right. He completed 66.7% of his passes but all for short yardage and managed to stay interception free. However, as I mentioned earlier, Oregon's pass defense is very susceptible and vulnerable to QB's who can air it out but it has become evident that Pat Hill does no trust Brandstater with deep bombs which is what you need to trade punches with Oregon. Brandstater might buckle under the pressure of being down a few scores and I can guarantee he gets picked off at least once in this game. The Bulldogs are clearly not going to win the rushing battle in this game and since I see them being down early, they are going to have to rely on new players to get the job done and attempt to keep this one close. I think this is somewhat of letdown game for Fresno State although revenge is on their minds. Oregon is just too good this year and could become one of the most underrated teams in College Football. Expect to see the Ducks ranked a little bit higher than #20 next week as they lay a licking on Fresno State.
Trend of the Game: Oregon is 15-3 ATS on Grass the last six years and 24-5 ATS in their road openers the last 30 years.
Oregon 45, Fresno State 33
RECAP:
Oregon State +8
Duke +19
Penn State +8.5
Idaho +17
Troy +30
Arkansas -28.5
Texas -2.5 (POW)
Oregon -4.5
:cheers:
