MistaFlava's WEDNESDAY NIGHT ***Power Selection*** (Writeup and Analysis)


2006 CFB Record: 61-46-2 (-36.10 Units)
2006 CFB ATS Record: 51-38-2 ATS (-27.30 Units)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 10-8 (-8.80 Units)

PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 6-5 (+15.50 units)
PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 5-1 (+54.00 Units)
PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-4 (-136.50 Units)

Alright, I am off to a good start this week as my big play on Ball State cashed in. As I stated yesterday, I am aiming for a perfect week this week and have no doubts that I can pull it off and have some nice cash for the Holidays. Money time baby!


Wednesday, November 15

Miami Ohio Redhawks +4 (10 Units)

This is not the type of game I would usually lay cash on if it was being played on a Saturday but since it's a midweek game, I feel the need to challenge myself as a capper and find the best side to put my money on. The Miami Ohio Redhawks have not been kind to bettors this season. Coming into this game, this very young and inexperienced team is 3-7 ATS on the year and are a pathetic 1-9 on the season. However, youth and inexperience quicly turns into ability to adapt with these young teams and I think that with all the time off, the Redhawks probably worked on enough stuff with their eager to learn young players. Not much can be said about betting on a team that is 9-1 on the season but the reality of things is that the Redhawks have kept several games close and slapping them with continuous dog tags like this one tonight is eventually going to backfire. This is the same Redhawks team that lost to Purdue by only seven points, lost to Kent State by two points, lost to Northern Illinois by only three points, came within a point or two of covering against Akron and Cincinnati and more recently are coming off a three point home loss to Ball State and a three point road loss to Western Michigan. You can argue all night that this team is pathetic on the road but as I mentioned, the time off is going to make some of these young players a heck of a lot older. Miami Ohio is averaging 21.8 points per game in MAC Conference play on 346.7 total yards and 5.1 yards per play. Bowling Green's defense is allowing 29.0 points per MAC Conference game (horrendous) on 334.7 total yards and 5.2 yards per play. On the ground, the Redhawks don't have anything special going with RB Brandon Murphy (who has been injured). However his backup Andre Bratton has run quite well on the road averaging 5.2 yards per carry in his last three road games. No concern there because Bowling Green allow 138.8 rushing yards per conference game on 4.0 yards per carry. In the air, QB Mike Kokal has been good this season completing 57.7% of his passes in MAC play for 7.3 yards per pass attempt and several big plays to talk about. He has thrown only 5 interceptions in Conference play but does get sacked alot playing behind a weak offensive line. Bowling Green don't have a secondary to speak of and don't have many big playmakers defensively. Miami Ohio knows they have to run pass pass tonight which shouldn't be a problem at all against this Bowling Green defense allowing MAC opponents to complete 63.3% of their passes for 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Even if they get down, the Redhawks will easily answer the call and make their way back into this thing. Remember the name Ryne Robinson please and thank me later.

The Bowling Green Falcons are on a mission to finish the season strong, get a lot of fans in the stands tonight (NCAA regulations on the line) and give the people of Bowling Green something to be excited about for next season. Easier said than done in the MAC Conference. The Falcons returned only 10 starters this season which is quite close to the 7 starters Miami Ohio returned. So much like their opponents tonight, the Falcons have benefited nicely from the time off to further experience their young players and further advance their complex gameplans. Gregg Brandon is a great coach and should he want to tonight, could easily outcoach the RedHawks and Shane Montgomery. Let's take a close look back at some of the Conference home games for Bowling Green. They just pulled off a win against Buffalo back in September, they got demolished by Kent State to the tune of 38-3 the next home game and then proceeded to beat Eastern Michigan by only three points in their homecoming game (they were 3-1-1 ATS in homecoming games before that). So my point here is that for all of you talking about Bowling Green being 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home finales, toss that trash out the window because Iowa was 13-1 ATS in the same spot and trends like that never stick (players move on and changes are made). The Falcons are averaging 23.0 points per MAC Conference game this season and have done it on 352.8 total yards of offense but only 4.9 yards per play. Miami Ohio's defense is actually quite solid defensively allowing only 24.3 points per game in conference play for 330.5 total yards and 5.3 yards per play. On the ground, Bowling Green love to run the ball. They average 187.7 rushing yards per MAC game on 4.2 yards per carry. Most of that is because of QB Anthony Turner who can run like no other QB in the conference. Miami Ohio is weak against the run allowing 4.1 yards per carry in Conference play. The reason I am not concerned about this is because Turner has run all over his last three opponents yet gone 0-3 in those games because the other team outscores him. Same thing should happen tonight. When Turner goes to the air, he needs to be careful because he completes only 56.0% of his passes for 6.0 yards per pass attempt and is up against a Miami Ohio defense that have 9 interceptions in Conference play. Both teams have big time fumble problems and we are surely going to see turnovers all night long with the bad weather. In the end though, Turner has not shown that he can win games when they are close and the Redhawks are definitely a barking dog in this one. Miami Ohio love to throw the big bomb on offense so I don't know how Bowling Green will respond if they go down by a touchdown early in this game. My guess is...not too well.

Everyone just relax with the weather issues. Bad weather or not, both teams turn the ball over a lot. Both teams are about even when it comes to Conference play. Bowling Green have the better running game while Miami Ohio have the much better passing attack. Neither team can stop the run or the pass in MAC Conference play this season so it's a crapshoot right? Wrong. Teams who can pass like Miami Ohio have a much better chance of playing from behind. As we saw against other teams, BG love to run the ball but have bgi time problems playing from behind. Vegas doesn't really care what side people are on tonight because it's just another MAC game. BG looks like the obvious play but I can't find anyone to give me any valid reasons to back them as favorites (1-4 ATS). You really want cash on a team that sucks when favored? Cmon...get real and grab Miami Ohio.

Trend of the Game: Bowling Green is 1-9 ATS their last 10 games as a favorite.

Miami Ohio 25, Bowling Green 24

GL, I would take the dog too if I had to pick a side in this one but I got the Under so hopefully the score is a little lower than what you predicted.. :shake:
everythingthatsgreen said:
GL, I would take the dog too if I had to pick a side in this one but I got the Under so hopefully the score is a little lower than what you predicted.. :shake:

As we learned in the Chicago-NY Giants game on Sunday night...bad weather leads to stupid turnovers deep in your own zone that result in points.

Bad weather is often one of the most misleading variables when it comes to picking an UNDER bet because anything can happen and defenses can often have problems tackling and so on.

You also have to consider that the game last night almost went to overtime and the game tonight could do the same.

GL buddy!
I love it when we like the same thing!!!! I was thinking over also with the total going down like it is! Some people automatically think that just because the weather is bad it's gonna stay under the total, when actually it seems to help the offense more IMO! GL Flave, I'm riding with you again LET'S MAKE SOME CASH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:shake: :cheers:
Your right, weather can help or hurt you..

However I still think both of these teams are crap and neither one is going to take advantage of turnovers leading to a very boring low scoring game.

Miami has no run game at all but they do attempt it a lot 30 attempts over last 3 games. (Avg 94yd 3y/a) Thus running the clock and BGSU will help milk the clock as well as they're best asset is running.

I can see something like 24-20...
I also think is this case the total has been adjusted due to the bad weather a strong indicator IMO the UNDER is a better play...JMHO
With Miami O at the ML, I'll gladly take that final score, Mista.. :cheers:
And about that attendance thing. Sure they sold tons of tickets and sure tons of fans will be in the stands when the game STARTS, but with the weather...will they be a factor? I don't think so...
Another winner...2-0 on the week and wishing I had tailed some on the UNDER as well. Congrats all Miami Ohio and UNDER backers.