MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 CFB Record: 60-46-2 (-56.10 Units)
2006 CFB ATS Record: 50-38-2 ATS (-47.30 Units)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 10-8 (-8.80 Units)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 5-5 (-4.50 units)
PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 5-1 (+54.00 Units)
PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-4 (-136.50 Units)
Alright, I am coming off a horrible week in CFB but a good week in the NFL. It's crunch time right now for me because all the big money is made at this time of the year and I feel like I can definitely contribute some winners. My goal for this week? I want to sweep the board and have a perfect week.
-------------------------------------
Tuesday, November 14
Ball State Cardinals +4.5 (20 Units) ***PLAY OF THE MIDWEEK***
The Ball State Cardinals were definitely a team I considered Bowl worthy before this season started but they had a few tough non-conference games where they lost but kept it close and although they have played tough in MAC Conference play, they have not been able to win many games. This team is currently 3-3 in Conference play this year which tells me right off the bat that they are a team I would consider betting on as underdogs. I mean you are not 3-3 in MAC Conference play for no reason and I think the Cardinals have potential. Their conference losses came against Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Northern Illinois. Those three teams are all going to be Bowl Eligible at the end of the season so I value that once again when it comes to betting on a team considered the underdog. What you have to understand about Ball State is that they can definitely score points, having been held to under 20 points only once this year. How about Ball State's effort against Michigan last week? I mean nobody has come close to scoring that many points on the Wolverines this year but the Cardinals did. Their confidence is sky high right now. The Cardinals are averaging 29.2 points per MAC Conference game this season on 346.0 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play. Toledo's defense is allowing a whopping 27.2 points per Conference game on 315.0 total yards and 5.2 yards per play. On the ground, the Cardinals have struggled to move the ball well but it won't matter. Toledo does allow 3.9 yards per carry in Conference play but like I said, the Cards are throwing, throwing and throwing some more tonight. And that's a good thing because freshman QB Nate Davis is one of the best QB's in the Conference. He is completing 68.6% of his passes in MAC conference play for 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Sure he gets careless with the ball but he makes up for it by making big plays. Toledo's secondary is very suspect and they have been shredded for 6.8 yards per pass attempt in conference play. They have only 5 interceptions in Conference play. It's okay if Davis makes mistakes because he is good enough to recover and he can strike just as fast as he can crash. The Cardinals are much better than the public perception makes them out to be.
The Toledo Rockets have sure looked pretty damn good lately but hold your horses on this one. Before I get into anything, did you know that Toledo average 7.5 penalties per conference game costing them 73.8 yards per game? Did you also know that Ball State average only 5.3 penalties per conference game for a loss of only 48.3 yards per game? Big difference here. The Rockets are 2-4 in MAC Conference play but how quickly have you all forgotten that they were 0-4 in Conference play a few weeks ago and that their two wins came as underdogs. Well the party is over for you Toledo people. Freshman QB Aaron Opelt was highly recruited by Ball State but chose Toledo instead and you know Brady Hoke has that on the back of his mind. Not only that, Opelt was ranked #260 in the High School rankings while Ball State QB Nate Davis was ranked #35 coming out of High School. So I mean it's no wonder Davis went to Ball State and that the Cardinals didn't mind seeing Opelt choose Toledo. The Rockets are coming off a huge win over Northern Illinois last week but how much will the emotions of that game effect this one? Toledo is currently averaging only 18.2 points per game in MAC Conference play so there is that problem again. Ball State scored 20+ in all but one of their games this season so how does Toledo keep up with them? The Rockets average only 4.5 yards per play in Conference play which is pretty damn pathetic. Ball State's defense allows a whopping 6.3 yards per play in Conference play but their defense does enough damage to compensate for that. On the ground, Toledo love to run the ball but average only 3.9 yards per carry against MAC Conference teams. Sure Ball State have been demolished on the ground this season but I wish everyone would shutup about that because the only two RB's to really demolish this defense were Michigan's Mike Hart and Northern Illinois's Garret Wolfe (two of the top 5 RB's in all of college football). Toledo does not have a TOP 5 RB in the Nation, they don't even have a TOP 25 RB in the Nation. Everyone calm down. In the air, Toledo QB's are completing only 55.4% of their passes in MAC Conference games for only 5.4 yards per pass attempt which is bad if they play from behind. Ball State are horrendous at stopping the pass as well but can Toledo exploit that? Ball State does have very solid Linebacker play which could cause problems for Opelt if he gets careless and runs up the middle like he has done in the past. Toledo have fumbled 13 times (losing 6) in MAC conference games while Ball State has fumbled only 6 times. As much as Toledo has played well, they don't have the offense to exploit this Ball State defense and if they get down, they can't get back up.
The public will play this game tonight because a) It's football and it's the only football on this Tuesday and b) because they feel the line is soft enough that they can sit back, bet on Toledo, have a beer and enjoy the -5 that has been a winner twice for the home team on a Tuesday this year. It's your mistake guys. Ball State's conference losses have been against Bowl bound teams while Toledo lost to the 1-9 Eastern Michigan Eagles and struggled against other MAC teams. The line is a big fat trap for blind bettors because you are banking on Toledo's defense to win this but do you know that Ball State has scored 20+ points in all their games with the exception of one. So that would mean that Toledo has to score 30+ in this one (something they have done only once in 6 conference games)??? Get real and bet the Cardinals.
Trend of the Game: Ball State is 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
Ball State 27, Toledo 24
:cheers:
2006 CFB ATS Record: 50-38-2 ATS (-47.30 Units)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 10-8 (-8.80 Units)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 5-5 (-4.50 units)
PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 5-1 (+54.00 Units)
PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-4 (-136.50 Units)
Alright, I am coming off a horrible week in CFB but a good week in the NFL. It's crunch time right now for me because all the big money is made at this time of the year and I feel like I can definitely contribute some winners. My goal for this week? I want to sweep the board and have a perfect week.
-------------------------------------
Tuesday, November 14
Ball State Cardinals +4.5 (20 Units) ***PLAY OF THE MIDWEEK***
The Ball State Cardinals were definitely a team I considered Bowl worthy before this season started but they had a few tough non-conference games where they lost but kept it close and although they have played tough in MAC Conference play, they have not been able to win many games. This team is currently 3-3 in Conference play this year which tells me right off the bat that they are a team I would consider betting on as underdogs. I mean you are not 3-3 in MAC Conference play for no reason and I think the Cardinals have potential. Their conference losses came against Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Northern Illinois. Those three teams are all going to be Bowl Eligible at the end of the season so I value that once again when it comes to betting on a team considered the underdog. What you have to understand about Ball State is that they can definitely score points, having been held to under 20 points only once this year. How about Ball State's effort against Michigan last week? I mean nobody has come close to scoring that many points on the Wolverines this year but the Cardinals did. Their confidence is sky high right now. The Cardinals are averaging 29.2 points per MAC Conference game this season on 346.0 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play. Toledo's defense is allowing a whopping 27.2 points per Conference game on 315.0 total yards and 5.2 yards per play. On the ground, the Cardinals have struggled to move the ball well but it won't matter. Toledo does allow 3.9 yards per carry in Conference play but like I said, the Cards are throwing, throwing and throwing some more tonight. And that's a good thing because freshman QB Nate Davis is one of the best QB's in the Conference. He is completing 68.6% of his passes in MAC conference play for 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Sure he gets careless with the ball but he makes up for it by making big plays. Toledo's secondary is very suspect and they have been shredded for 6.8 yards per pass attempt in conference play. They have only 5 interceptions in Conference play. It's okay if Davis makes mistakes because he is good enough to recover and he can strike just as fast as he can crash. The Cardinals are much better than the public perception makes them out to be.
The Toledo Rockets have sure looked pretty damn good lately but hold your horses on this one. Before I get into anything, did you know that Toledo average 7.5 penalties per conference game costing them 73.8 yards per game? Did you also know that Ball State average only 5.3 penalties per conference game for a loss of only 48.3 yards per game? Big difference here. The Rockets are 2-4 in MAC Conference play but how quickly have you all forgotten that they were 0-4 in Conference play a few weeks ago and that their two wins came as underdogs. Well the party is over for you Toledo people. Freshman QB Aaron Opelt was highly recruited by Ball State but chose Toledo instead and you know Brady Hoke has that on the back of his mind. Not only that, Opelt was ranked #260 in the High School rankings while Ball State QB Nate Davis was ranked #35 coming out of High School. So I mean it's no wonder Davis went to Ball State and that the Cardinals didn't mind seeing Opelt choose Toledo. The Rockets are coming off a huge win over Northern Illinois last week but how much will the emotions of that game effect this one? Toledo is currently averaging only 18.2 points per game in MAC Conference play so there is that problem again. Ball State scored 20+ in all but one of their games this season so how does Toledo keep up with them? The Rockets average only 4.5 yards per play in Conference play which is pretty damn pathetic. Ball State's defense allows a whopping 6.3 yards per play in Conference play but their defense does enough damage to compensate for that. On the ground, Toledo love to run the ball but average only 3.9 yards per carry against MAC Conference teams. Sure Ball State have been demolished on the ground this season but I wish everyone would shutup about that because the only two RB's to really demolish this defense were Michigan's Mike Hart and Northern Illinois's Garret Wolfe (two of the top 5 RB's in all of college football). Toledo does not have a TOP 5 RB in the Nation, they don't even have a TOP 25 RB in the Nation. Everyone calm down. In the air, Toledo QB's are completing only 55.4% of their passes in MAC Conference games for only 5.4 yards per pass attempt which is bad if they play from behind. Ball State are horrendous at stopping the pass as well but can Toledo exploit that? Ball State does have very solid Linebacker play which could cause problems for Opelt if he gets careless and runs up the middle like he has done in the past. Toledo have fumbled 13 times (losing 6) in MAC conference games while Ball State has fumbled only 6 times. As much as Toledo has played well, they don't have the offense to exploit this Ball State defense and if they get down, they can't get back up.
The public will play this game tonight because a) It's football and it's the only football on this Tuesday and b) because they feel the line is soft enough that they can sit back, bet on Toledo, have a beer and enjoy the -5 that has been a winner twice for the home team on a Tuesday this year. It's your mistake guys. Ball State's conference losses have been against Bowl bound teams while Toledo lost to the 1-9 Eastern Michigan Eagles and struggled against other MAC teams. The line is a big fat trap for blind bettors because you are banking on Toledo's defense to win this but do you know that Ball State has scored 20+ points in all their games with the exception of one. So that would mean that Toledo has to score 30+ in this one (something they have done only once in 6 conference games)??? Get real and bet the Cardinals.
Trend of the Game: Ball State is 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
Ball State 27, Toledo 24
:cheers:
