MistaFlava's TUESDAY NIGHT ***Power Selection*** (Writeup and Analysis)


2006 CFB Record: 54-40-2 (-52.60 Units)
2006 CFB ATS Record: 44-32-2 ATS (-54.80 Units)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 10-7 (+2.20 Units)

PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 4-4 (-2.00 units)
PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 5-1 (+54.00 Units)
PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 0-2 (-110.00 Units)

42-19-2 ATS (69%) in Football the last four weeks

I had the worst week of my CFB season last week but it's to get back to business tonight with another weekday winner. I have been hitting those left and right and it's time to keep the magic from NFL Sunday and Monday going. Although my big plays have not hit lately, I have still been picking winners.


Tuesday, October 31

UAB Blazers +5 (5 Units)

I most definitely won't be making any forum friends by taking the UAB Blazers but I am getting the feeling that some of you are blindly betting on the SMU Mustangs without really knowing what this game is all about. Hear me out before you snap and say 'Im fading you tonight Flava' or 'SMU is the pick'. SMU won this meeting in Birgmingham last season by a score of 28-27. What people don't know about that game is that the Blazers had the lead with :22 and SMU had the ball on their own 20. The Mustangs somehow drove to midfield before lauching a last second Hail Mary that was caught in the endzone and that won the game. UAB is not as bad as their record speaks. You can't forget that this is the same UAB team that came within a touchdown of beating Oklahoma in their season opener and the same UAB team that has always performed well as an underdog in Conference play. They lost by a touchdown to #3 Tennessee in their season opener last year and beat both Memphis and #24 UTEP as CUSA Conference road underdogs. UAB is a Bowl capable team that badly needs to win 3 of their last 4 games to make the post-season. This is not just a regular season game, this is the season on the line. The Blazers have had 10 days off to regroup and rethink what they need to do to win the games they need to win to make it to a Bowl Game. UAB is averaging 30.7 points per game in their last three on 413.0 total yards of offense and 6.6 yards per play. The SMU Mustangs are horrendous defensively allowing 27.7 points per game in their last three on 374.7 total yards and 5.5 yards per play. On the ground, UAB has the best offensive line in the CUSA and they have let their RB's run for 197.0 rushing yards per game on 5.4 yards per carry in their last three games. Sure SMU allow only 77.3 rushing yards per game in their last three but UTEP, Marshall and East Carolina are all ranked almost dead last in the CUSA when it comes to good offensive lines. In the air, QB Chris Williams has the pleasure of playing behind a great line and he has completede 58.2% of his passes the last three games for a whopping 8.2 yards per pass attempt. Interceptions have been a problem for him but coach Brown has worked on some simple plays for him tonight and as long as his protection is good, he should be able to make the big plays. SMU's secondary is as bad as it gets, ranking something like 117th in the Country against the pass and allowing their last three QB opponents to complete 70.0% of their passes for 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Williams is a senior QB and he should have one more shot at beating SMU and throwing some big yardgae passes. He won't disappoint.

The SMU Mustangs are trying to win this Conference and trying to make it to a Bowl Game. However, they have only four wins to this point and were put in their sorry ass place last time out losing to ECU 21-38. The Mustangs beat UAB last season in Birmingham but it took a miracle Hail Mary to do it. I'm sorry but you don't go from a 20+ point underdog in last season's game to a -5 favorite only because you are playing at home. The level of skill has not changed dramatically enough between these two teams to make a difference and change the line by that many points. UAB is still a team that needs to be respected because when they are on their game, they are on their game big time and can be one of the best teams in this Conference. This is this same damn SMU team that lost 24-6 against NORTH TEXAS (rated one of the worst teams in College Football) earlier this season and that beatup on Sam Houston State and Arkansas State to mark their big wins this season. You also have to keep in mind that this game is being played on National TV and that having a freshman quarterback who is making his first TV appearance is not too inviting. I mean UAB have an experienced Senior who although has not started on TV, has been around for televised games and knows his system. The Mustangs are averaging 24.3 points per game in their last three games but average a pathetic 289.7 total yards per game on 4.7 yards per play. So with a weaker offense than UAB and with a weaker defense than UAB, how does SMU win this game? UAB's defense has underachieved all season so what they did in the 10 days off is work on their defensive schemes to get back to the old UAB defense we saw in certain games this season. Sure they are allowing a ton of yards on the ground lately but their D-Line is still strong and it's time to tighten things up. The SMU Mustangs average only 94.0 rushing yards per game on 2.8 yards per carry. That means everything will have to be done through the air by freshman QB Justin Willis. This kid has been oustanding but again the pressure is on him big time tonight. He is completing 67.1% of his passes for 7.2 yards per pass attempt in his last three games but in those games he was sacked 11 times which is not good because UAB have a decent pass rush and have 6 sacks in their last three games. Willis has thrown all 3 of his interceptions in the last three games and needs to be careful against a UAB secondary that has 5 interceptions in their last three games. SMU have also lost 3 fumbles in their last three games and with big time nerves playing part in tonight's Halloween special, I expect some mistakes. There is too much love for SMU tonight, so give me UAB because they are the better team.

The betting public is pounding SMU without having a single clue as to what they are doing. I don't know why SMU has so much love when they lost to North Texas and have beatup on mediocre teams. I am not falling for this garbage line that keeps climbing because before seeing the line for this game, I knew in my mind that UAB is a better team overall and that if they were dogs, I was pounding it hard. Stop wasting your time and money because I really don't feel like reading all the 'SMU FUCKIN SUCKS' threads or the 'WHY DID I TAKE SMU' threads. SMU lost to North Texas while UAB almost beat Oklahoma...enough said.

Trend of the Game: UAB is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points

UAB 31, SMU 23

My guess is this game is left best unplayed....

I do know that SMU has the better QB and better run game..

I'm undecided if I'm playing or not..

GL bro..
JumpOnBoard said:
My guess is this game is left best unplayed....

I do know that SMU has the better QB and better run game..

I'm undecided if I'm playing or not..

GL bro..

Fair enough...but UAB still have one of the best D-Lines in the CUSA and SMU average 90 rushing yards per game in their last three games.

I don't care about you making forum friends, you just keep on doing what your doing! Great job Mista, GL today and always!
gl we're on the same side..also thinking about the over, hopefully your predicted score is right.. :cheers: