Mistaflava's SUNDAY NIGHT ***Power Pick*** (Writeup and Analysis)


2006 NFL Internet Posted Record: 26-16-5 (+14.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 18-11-3 (+13.10 Units)

2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 8-5-2 (+1.70 Units)

PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 5-0-1 (+25.00 Units)
PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 0-1 (-11.00 Units)

26-8-2 ATS in Football the last two weeks

*Reminder: I post the lines I wagered on. These are my plays and personal thoughts on games. I am not asking everyone to agree, only posting these to help people with information.


Oakland-Denver 'UNDER' 37 (1 Unit)

The Oakland Raiders are by far the most pathetic team in the NFL but they have to start somwhere when it comes to fixing this team. Usually when you want to improve on something, you improve on defense first and then you worry about the offense. The Raiders probably already know that they can't do much scoring in Denver tonight so the secret will be to get things going defensively which is more than possible against the Broncos. The Raiders are 0 for the season and need a win badly. I was a little bit tempted to take them in this game but how can you take these ass clowns to cover or win anything? The Raiders came into Denver in 2005 and managed to score only 3 points against a Denver defense that was still in the Shanahan works. I don't see how they can come into Denver this time around, struggling as they are struggling and come out with any kind of points equalling more than a touchdown. When the Raiders went to Baltimore earlier this season, they managed to score only 6 points which should be what we see tonight. Again, I was very tempted to take the Raiders on the points but how can you back a team like this? They are averaging only 15.7 points per game in their last three games on only 257.3 total yards per game and 4.9 yards per play. Making things bad is that Denver is allowing only 5.3 points per game in their last three and they are well rested at home. They allow only 4.7 yards per play in their last three games. On the ground, the Raiders have had tons of success running the ball for 5.3 yards per carry in their last three. I expect them to run tons of ball tonight but they won't do much against a Broncos defense that allows only 99.3 rushing yards per game in their last three. QB Andrew Walter doesn't have much more of a chance at success if Air McNair didn't have a shot at it last week. Expect the Raiders to keep things on the ground and play for field position. He is completing only 44% of his passes this season and the team is converting only 27.3% of his third down chances in the last three games. The Raiders average only 4.6 yards per pass attempt while the Broncos allow only 5.4 yards per pass attempt in their last three. I see the Raiders having some success on offense but once they approach the Red Zone and waste time, it's gonna be lights out for them and I dont see many points.

The Denver Broncos are on fire. They made me some nice cash last week with a big win and cover over the Ravens last week. They are making a serious case for one of the best defensive teams in the NFL. The Bears have that all locked up right now but if the Broncos know anything it's how to play solid ass defense. The only concern I have with the UNDER is that the Broncos decide to run the score up and make this a big time blowout but I think their running attack is going to keep the clock rolling long enough for us to have some success. The Broncos have allowed 9 total points in two home games this season so what makes anyone think a rookie QB would walk in here and score some damn points against them? Also, with Randy Moss running loose on the field and with Jerry Porter out, CB Champ Bailey should have another impressive performance where he shows the world why he is the best shut down corner in the NFL. Bailey has been slammed for his performances on National TV and he made up for it big time last year. KC and Baltimore both have better offense than Oakland but what people don't realize is that Oakland is not all that bad on defense. Sure they allow a lot of points but thats because their offense puts them on the field all game long and leaves them with horrendous field position. The Broncos still have problems on offense though. They average only 13.0 points per game in their last three games on only 313.3 total yards per game. What people don't know is that Oakland allows 28.7 points per game in their last three but on only 292.3 total yards of offense and 4.6 yards per play. That means that as along as the offense keeps them away from bad field position and turnovers, the Raiders defense has been pretty damn good. Thats better numbers than the Broncos. For all the running Shanahan likes to do, the Broncos average only 4.1 yards per carry in their last three while the Raiders allow only 3.8 yards per carry in their last three. In the air, QB Jake Plummer has not looked all that great guys. He is completing only 52.4% of his passes in his last three games but his line is damn good. As for the Oakland secondary, they allow a lot of passes to be completed but only 5.6 yards per pass attempt and 1.3 interceptions per game which tells me that they should stop the Broncos enough times to keep the clock running. The Broncos are pathetic at times with the ball and I see their stalled drives being the big difference in the game tonight.

Vegas has the line the lowest it has been in years of this series trying to get people to jump on the OVER. Well it has worked but what I don't understand is why? Sure the Broncos are going to score but their pride and joy is their defense this season and Vegas knows that very well. They also know that people are probably going to clean up and win on Denver -14 so the screw job comes on the total where everyone expects an OVER. Well this is going to be a low scoring and frsutrating game where we dont see many points and have a little bit of fun with the UNDER.

Trend of the Game: The UNDER is 6-1 in Denver's last seven home games.

Denver 24, Oakland 10

I agree with ya. Why 1 unit only on a Power Play?

Been thinking about adding it myself....

Good Luck
SportsNut said:
I agree with ya. Why 1 unit only on a Power Play?

Been thinking about adding it myself....

Good Luck

we got jobbed by Nick Saban's coaching today and im still sick over that garbage so 1 unit. Good Luck.
Mista ~

Tell me about. Great job with those 4th and short calls. My best was on 3rd down and 2 from the 33 he decided he needs to throw when brown cant be stopped all day...Real happy the saved that timeout and had 30 something seconds left when they ran that ball.

My day when straight DOWNHILL after the Sea game in which sea led 27-21 , dominanted the 2nd H(even with a missed 35 yd fG) and Maurice Morris makes the 1st down but fumbles at the STL 7 with less then 3 to play. That was game over if they hold onto the ball...1st and goal atthe 7...tick,tick , tick.. well on 2and 15 holt goes for a 67 yard TD. Then the guy who misses a 35 yd chip shot hits from 54...and my -2.5 ticket is useless basically a 13 unit swing....the Miami which I have luckily some at +3 for 8 units and 4 units on the ML.

There is just so much about the Miami game I hated...but I am taking DET +3.5 next week.....they still stink IMO...Brown was a beast.....silly bad breaks....