Mistaflava's NFL THURSDAY NIGHT ***Power Pick*** (Writeup and Analysis)


2006 NFL Internet Posted Record: 47-34-6 (-150.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 38-25-4 (-87.50 Units)

2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 9-6-2 (-24.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet Half Record: 0-2 (-38.50 Units)

NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 11-2-1 (+172.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-2 (-335.00 Units)

*Reminder: I post the lines I wagered on. These are my plays and personal thoughts on games. I am not asking everyone to agree, only posting these to help people with information.


Thursday, December 14

Seattle Seahawks -10 (20 Units)

The San Francisco 49ers had their nice little money run at the middle point of the season but that run has quite evidently come to an end recently and they Niners are starting to fade and fizzle. After winning three straight and dreaming of the playoffs with a 5-5 record, Alex Smith and his guys have now lost three straight games and when you lose by 11 to Green Bay at home this later in the year, I am positive that this team couldn't really care less about what happens in this game tonight. The Niners came into Seattle at about the same time of year last year and don't think for one second that Holmgren and the Seahawks have thrown those tapes away. Seattle won that game 41-3 and easily played one of their best games all season. As much as Alex Smith has played and as well as Frank Gore has run the ball, the 1st round pick out of Utah is playing in his first Nationally televised game tonight and nerves are most definitely going to affect him early. With the offensive line losing steam by the week, this could be a very long and rough week for Smith and the O-Line. The Niners are averaging 15.3 points per game in their last three on the road and they have done it by averaging 278.7 total yards per game on 5.1 yards per play. Seattle's defense has underachieved big time all season but could this be the game that catapults them into the playoffs? They have allowed 15.3 points per game in their last three at home by allowing only 264.7 total yards and 4.9 yards per play. On the ground, RB Frank Gore has been one of the best in the NFL this season and he has led this team to 142.0 rushing yards per game in their last three on the road for 4.7 yards per carry. However, I don't know how much the Niners can afford to run if they get behind and Seattle is allowing only 74.3 rushing yards per game in their last three home games. In the air, QB Alex Smith is going to be nervous and nonetheless, he should struggle. He has completed only 55.4% of his passes in the last three road games for 5.5 yards per pass attempt. He has been sacked 7 times in those games and has thrown 5 interceptions. The Seattle defense is allowing their last three home opponents to complete only 57.7% of their passes for only 5.1 yards per pass attempt. The Seahawks have a whopping 15 sacks in their last three home games and have 4 interceptions. With the wet weather, this is going to be a disaster game for the Niners and Alex Smith. The Niners are scoring touchdowns only 28.9% of the time from inside the Red Zone in their last three road games and when you are playing from behind, that kind of stuff just doesn't work (oh yeah and Seattle is allowing touchdowns only 28.9% of the time from inside the Red Zone in their last three home games). With no special teams superstars to save their asses in this one, it's going to be lights out early for the Niners.

The Seattle Seahawks need this game tonight or else they can kiss their playoff hopes buh bye and more importantly they can kiss my ass. This past weekend's road loss to Arizona was unacceptable and you can bet your bottom dollar Mike Holmgren didn't make this week easy for his players. This is a must win situation so you can expect Holmgren to pull out all stops early in this game. Seeing that the weather is probably going to be once again be very bad, it is very important for the Seahakws to jump out to an early lead in this game so they can sit back and let Shaun Alexander run the ball the entire second half. I have to admit that the Seahawks don't really have any big home wins yet this season. This is a great revenge spot on the short week for the Seahawks because at least they go to sleep in their own beds last night while the Niners and their hurting bodies were stuck in a hotel room without the use of their personal training facilities. Things like that matter a lot late in the season. Okay, so there is no excuse whatsoever for not performing to top expectations in this game. Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander are both 100% healthy, WR Bobby Engram is back in the lineup and San Francisco's season is over so I don't see why they would even care about this game. The Seahawks are averaging 24.7 points per game in their last three home games and they have done that by averaging 345.3 total yards and 5.1 yards per play. However keep in mind that this is Hasselbeck's first true home game since coming back from injury. The Niners are allowing 22.3 points per game in their last three road games by allowing 325.0 total yards and 5.4 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Shaun Alexander loves playing against San Francisco and trust me when I say that he won't be held to 37 yards like he was in San Fran a few weeks back. Seattle averages 200.7 rushing yards per game in their last three home games for 5.3 yards per carry. The Niners were okay against the run earlier this season but are now allowing 133.7 rushing yards per road game on 4.6 yards per carry and with the weather being wet and windy, you can definitely where I am coming from when I say that Shaun Alexander probably hits the 150 mark in this game. In the air, Hasselbeck actually played really well last week completing 20 of 28 passes for 243 yards and 3 touchdown passes with no interceptions. San Francisco's last three road opponents have completed a whopping 63.2% of their passes for 6.0 yards per pass attempt. Even if Hasselbeck does make a mistake or two, the Niners have only 2 interceptions in their last three road games and their defense probably care much to put their bodies on the line in a meaningless game like this one. The Seahawks struggles under Seneca Wallace when it came to converting 3rd downs at home but now that Matt is back and healthy, I expect them to make a dent into those numbers against a Niners defense that is allowing their last three road opponents to convert 46.3% of their 3rd down chances. The Niners also allow touchdowns 50.0% of the time once a team enters the Red Zone against them in their last three road games. Showcase the Seahawks all you want in this game because I am calling for a blowout.

In case you haven't clued in on it yet, the new regular Thursday Night Games clearly give the home team a huge advantage. We are very late into the season, guys are hurting more and more and travelling on a short week four days coming off a blowout loss cannot be a pleasant thing to do. My guess is that much like Baltimore (vs. Cincinnati) and much like Cleveland last week (vs. Pittsburgh), the road team on a Thursday is going to have problems recovering in time from the short week and the home team is going to be at an obvious advantage. This is not like the first meeting where Shaun Alexander was making his rusty comeback or where Matt Hasselbeck was still out and the Seneca Wallace show was fading. From what I hear the weather is almost as bad as it was when Green Bay played here on a Monday Night a few weeks back. If that's the case, take the OVER again because it worked last time. Regardless, the Seahawks steamroll tonight. I just don't see how San Fran gives a rats ass about this game tonight.

Trend of the Game: San Francisco is 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a double digit home loss.

Seattle 45, San Francisco 0

final score:
seahawks 34 niners 17

i like seattle tonight!! a possible play on the over too considering, like you said, the weather and how the last game turned out with the same type of weather in seattle.....
Like the play although I don't think the weather will be as bad as some expect. The wind, more than anything, could play a factor as the gusts may get to 50mph.


I heard there is supposed to be 40 to 50 mph winds.. Which means look for gore and alexander to cancel each other out..
SEA wants to create some momentum with the playoffs approaching and will take care of business tonight. I see Alexander having a huge game and Alex Smith won't be able to play catchup. BOL to us :cheers:

I have 2 units on this game and I will be adding 2 more units. You have me CONVINCED and I agree with your analysis.