Mistaflava's NFL SUNDAY NIGHT ***Power Pick*** (Writeup and Analysis)


2006 NFL Internet Posted Record: 30-18-5 (+54.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 21-13-3 (+52.10 Units)

2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 9-5-2 (+2.70 Units)

NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 6-0-1 (+55.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)

40-19-2 (68%) ATS in Football the last four weeks

*Reminder: I post the lines I wagered on. These are my plays and personal thoughts on games. I am not asking everyone to agree, only posting these to help people with information.


Sunday, October 29

Dallas Cowboys +4 (25 Units) ***PRIMETIME PLAY OF THE WEEK***

The Dallas Cowboys were my flavor of the month on Monday Night last week and it cost me big time. Sure I only had 5 units on them for that game but nonetheless it was a pissoff and im sure it got other people going as well. However, Dallas is back in business this week with a new QB in Tony Romo and even though he looked like shit at many times last week, he still managed to throw 3 touchdown passes trying to get the Cowboys back in the game and I was impressed. Not only that, did you guys know that Terrell Owens gave Romo his blessing this week and TO said several times to the media that he completely approved of the move to make Romo the starter. Watching last week's game, the Cowboys should have called TO's number so many more times than they did but instead Bledsoe chose to throw the ball to a bunch of chumps while throwing like a chump himself. Not happening this week. Young QB's like Romo are easily influenced by big name players like Owens and whenever Romo goes to the air, it's going to be for a big pass to Owens. Enough about that. Since the 2004 disaster season for the Cowboys, Bill Parcells has reacted extremely well to losses. Counting last season and this season, the Cowboys are 7-1 straight up following a loss which tells me that this group of guys he is coaching respond well to his week of practice off a loss. Cmon guys...Parcells is still a good coach whether you like it or not. The Cowboys are much better off on the road. The Cowboys average a whopping 28.7 points per game on the road and ironically enough, some of the players were talking about liking the grass surface better than the home turf. Anyways. In those road games the Cowboys average 346.3 total yards per game on 5.4 yards per play. Carolina's defense is not what it used to be in past years (seems ever since Dan Morgan went down) and they are allowing 16.7 points per home game on 346.7 total yards and 5.3 yards per play at home. Alright guys. It's Julius Jones time tonight. Jones ran for 194 yards when the Cowboys won here last year but get this...Jones is rushing for 141.0 yards per game and 3 touchdowns in his career against NFC South teams. Also, Jones is averaging 91.7 rushing yards per game on grass with 7 touchdowns in 10 grass games, while in 17 games played on turf, Jones averages only 83.5 yards per game for the same 7 touchdowns. Well the Panthers are weak up the middle allowing 135.3 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry at home this season. Expect Jones to rush for another 100+ tonight to ease things up on Romo. Speaking of Romo, he's now had a full week of practice to get comfortable and there is no need to remind anyone what happened to the last guy that stepped in to replace Drew Bledsoe (Tom Braday ladies and gentlemen). Carolina's allows a ton of yards in the air at home as their visiting QB's have completed 62.1% of their passes for 6.2 yards per pass attempt. The Panthers have only 2 interceptions at home and only 4 sacks in three home games. The offensive line has issues for Dallas but once again, expect the Tuna to pound things up the middle all night while unleashing Romo on some play action to TO. What I really like about the Cowboys is that they are converting a whopping 41.9% of third downs on the road this season and Parcells is not shy to go for it on 4th down if he has to (he's done it enough times this season). This should be a nice bounce back game for the Cowboys and Terrell Owens who is dying to have some big plays to make up for the dropped pass on 4th down last week.

The Carolina Panthers are unfortunately not what they used to be. Ever since LB Dan Morgan was announced to be out for the season, it seems like this team has lost their defensive swagger and intensity which seems kind of weird but would make sense when you lose a leader like Morgan. The Panthers are sitting at 4-3 on the season right now but they have not played well enough for me to ever back them at this price. The Panthers have lost two of their last three home games against Dallas and with the Tuna coming into Carolina in a bad ass mood, I feel bad for these Carolina players because things are really not going to go their way tonight. The Panthers struggled to beat both New Orleans and Cleveland at home while losing badly to the only good running team they have faced in Atlanta earlier this season. Stopping the run is what got the Panthers in trouble against the Cowboys last season and seeing that nothing has been fixed in terms of the run defense for Carolina (it's actually notches worse because of the Morgan injury), I see a repeat performance of last season. Steve Smith has always been the spotlight when PrimteTime games come to television but now that Owens is the center of attention, Smith is going to probably bug Delhomme all night to match what Romo and Owens have going which should result in turnovers. The Panthers are averaging a pathetic 15.7 points per home game this season on only 275.7 total yards per home game and 4.9 yards per play. The Cowboys defense seems to play a lot better on grass allowing 25.3 points per game but on only 306.3 total yards per game and 5.3 yards per play. On the ground, the Panthers RB Deshaun Foster is useless. Sure the Panthers average 4.8 yards per carry at home but Foster averages only 18.7 rushing yards in 3 night time games. That's horrible. Also, Foster is averaging only 2.8 yards per carry and only 37.7 rushing yards per game against NFC East teams. Seeing that Dallas is allowing only 69.3 rushing yards per road game this season on 2.7 yards per carry, it's safe to say that the honus is on QB Jake Delhomme to make some plays. He does complete a high percentage of passes at home but Delhomme is passing for only 4.9 yards per pass attempt at home and is getting sacked about twice per game. Delhomme has played three times against Dallas with a QB Rating of 83.0 and a completion rate of only 47.6% for 8.7 yards per pass attempt. So it's basically home run ball or nothing. In 7 games versus the NFC East, Delhomme has thorwn 10 TD passes but 10 interceptions as well. The Dallas defense is allowing over 7.0 yards per pass attempt on the road but they need to be careful and make sure Steve Smith is well covered by Terence Newman and Anthony Henry. They both have to be around when Smith breaks loose and they have to communicate well to avoid getting burned. Carolina is converting only 18.2% of third downs on at home this season and that would be because they are way too often stuck in 3rd and long situations. None of that should change tonight and the Cowboys are going to ensure that Smith is shut down tonight by playing some two deep zone and two deep man coverage. Enough said...Dallas makes a statement this week like the Giants made a statement last week.

Trend of the Game: Dallas is 7-1 straight up the last two seasons following a straight up loss.

Dallas 27, Carolina 20


Baltimore +1 WIN
Arizona +3.5 LOSS
Cleveland -1.5 WIN
Dallas +4.5

Good Luck to all in this game!

I like the way you think! That is what I decided to go with. I am not sure if this is good or bad news for you!:cheers:
i like dallas also, but i worried about the pass rush and the fact that this is romo's first start. not to mention on the road
JC88 said:
i like dallas also, but i worried about the pass rush and the fact that this is romo's first start. not to mention on the road

Parcells is a good coach, I have faith in him.
I also have props on the following (1 unit each)
Witten over 48.5 yards receiving (based this on the fact that Romo and Witten are best friends)
TO over 5.5 receptions
Romo over 271 yards passing (he threw for around 250 in the second half last week against the Giants)
I also Parlayed Dallas and the over. Good luck to everyone. Go Cowboys!!!
BOL tonight, Flava. You must really feel strongly to be risking almost half of your total profit for the season to date on it. My lean is on a 'Boys SU loss in an ATS cover.

WOW I SUCK AT LIFE :down:violin