Mistaflava's NFL SUNDAY NIGHT ***Power Pick*** (Writeup and Analysis)


2006 NFL Internet Posted Record: 50-39-6 (-256.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 41-30-4 (-193 .50 Units)

2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 9-6-2 (-24.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet Half Record: 0-2 (-38.50 Units)

NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 11-2-1 (+172.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-2 (-335.00 Units)

*I am in the midst of a 3-4 week freefall in the NFL and in College football. I have nobody to blame but myself. I spent a few good hours thinking about what to do for the remaining few weeks and I have decided to go back to the basics of capping. Just good hardcore capping, no thinking, just bet with the gut and some stat support.


Sunday, December 17

Kansas City-San Diego 'OVER' 46.5 (50 Units)

The Kansas City Chiefs lost a leader and very popular figure in the NFL this week when owner Lamar Hunt passed away. The Chiefs have dedicated this game to Hunt and everything they have done this week was for Hunt. I am not usually a fan of theories like this but emotions are everything in football and when teams play with a lot of emotion or with a lot of passion, they do one of two things: a) they turn the ball over or b) they score a bunch of points and pull off a huge win as a memorial. The Chiefs have scored 20 points or more only once in their last five games which is quite concerning because the Chiefs had scored 20+ points in five games prior to that bad streak but they have yet to find their scoring touch. This could have to do with the fact that Damon Huard quarterbacked this team most of the year but the rusty Trent Green is now back and I think he is ready to go. In the first meeting of the season between the two teams, Kansas City won 30-27 and there is no reason why they can't score just as many points in the return game. Kansas City is only 3-10 in their last 13 December road games so I dont' know why anyone would be on the Chiefs. I don't see them having to score more than 17 points because the Chargers should score at least 30. The Chiefs average 23.0 points per game in their last three games for 333.0 total yards and 5.9 yards per play. San Diego's defense has allowed 19.7 points per game in their last three games, allowing 288.7 total yards per game and 4.7 yards per play. On the ground, RB Larry Johnson averages only 82.5 rushing yards per game when playing on National TV so I don't know how effective Johnson is going to be. He has neve run well versus the Chargers (apart from their first meeting this year). The Chiefs average 130.0 rushing yards per game in their last three and they have done it on 4.7 yards per carry. The Chargers have had problems stopping the run their last three games, allowing 4.1 yards per carry. In the air, QB Trent Green is starting to find his form again as he has completed 57.6% of his passes the last three weeks for 7.2 yards per pass attempt. Green has been sacked 7 times the last three weeks and that's not good because San Diego has 14 sacks the last three weeks. Expect some mistakes by Green. I still see him having success though because the Chargers have allowed some big plays recently. KC is converting 43.6% of their 3rd downs the last three weeks which is encouraging should we need some garbage time points. This game means a lot to the Chiefs and since their defense isn't that good, expect the offense to come out with tons of energy.

The San Diego Chargers are one of the top three teams in the NFL at this point in the season and since they have alreay clinched a playoff spot, this divisional rivalry game doesn't mean as much to them as it usually would. However, we could be wrong on that because the Chargers remember when Kansas City beat them at Arrowhead earlier this year with their backup QB Damon Huard. The Chargers also have interest in this game because the home field advantage is up for grabs now that Indianapolis has been losing games, San Diego has a great shot at the much needed home field throughout the playoffs. With the Colts not playing until tomorrow night, a win and big performance tonight would definitely put some pressure on Manning and his guys which is exactly what San Diego wants. With the way the Bears played earlier this afternoon, the Chargers can definitely takeover the top spot in the NFL if they win big in this game. San Diego has won seven straight games heading into this game but they can't afford to lose focus. I can actually picture the Chargers falling behind in this game because we all know how much energy the Chiefs are going to come out with. The Chargers are averaging 33.7 points per game at home this season and they have done it by averaging 382.7 total yards and 6.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, I don't really have time to talk about the best running back in the NFL today (LT) because I if you don't already know, you shouldn't be betting on this game. The Chargers are averaging 170.5 rushing yards per home game this season on an amazing 5.5 yards per carry. Kansas City has allowed 137.0 rushing yards per road game this season on 4.2 yards per carry. If Tomlinson wants to have his way tonight, he'll most definitely have it. In the air, QB Philipp Rivers has been outstanding in his debut season as a starter. He is completing 63.1% of his passes at home for 7.1 yards per pass attempt and is being sacked only 1.8 times per home game. Rivers has thrown only 2 of his 7 interceptions on home turf. Kansas City have allowed their road opponents to complete 65.0% of their passes on the road this season for 7.3 yards per pass attempt. The Chiefs average only 1.5 sacks per home and have intercepted only 3 passes on the road all season. The Chargers should easily have their way on 3rd downs as they convert 40%+ at home this season while Kansas City allows 40%+ conversions on the road. I really like the Chargers to make yet another statement tonight even though Kansas City might get their early share of the points shootout. Give me the points in this one because I don't trust large favorites.

This is not the most intriguing game of the day to bet on and we all know I have been slumping lately but seeing that this is an important game for both teams and the emotion meter is going to be at it's highest of the season for the Chiefs because of the Lamar Hunt passing, it would be ridiculous not to take the OVER in this game. I really like the Chargers to win and cover the game tonight but the fact that I like the OVER means that the Chiefs are also going to score some points and that would make it scary to be on the spread. When two teams want a game so bad like the teams will in this game, the OVER is the way to go. The Chiefs have not done a lot of scoring lately but the pace of the game will be fast and the teams should trade enough touchdowns to reach the number.

Trend of the Game: The OVER is 18-6 in Kansas City's last 24 December games.

San Diego 31, Kansas City 19

Curious, 19 pts does not represent a particularly strong offensive performance IMO. Also, should the KC def. be motivated as well? I lean under tonight, but BOL nonetheless.
I can't pick winners for shit...I badly need a break from this shit.
I've completely lost my right capping mind.
Dont worry about it, MistaFlava. If anything, I enjoy your write-ups the most on this board. Everyone has a slump at somepoint in the season. I went 2-3 today (damn Saints killed me). By the way, your location is the Poinsettia Bowl? I go to TCU and wish so badly I could go to the game but I cant. I will be going to the Alamo Bowl though. Go Frogs/Horns!
Keep posting them bro.

Get it back tonight (lean to Cincy myself at this point).


I'm new to this site, but I have been reading your stuff for a couple of weeks, and it is great stuff. Keep it coming, I might not always agree with you, but everyone has their opinion, but that is just it, opinions are like assholes, everyone has one, but you are a GREAT capper. I can't stand people who bash you just because you are cold, don't let people like that bother you, do what you do best and that is CAP!!!!!
What is NT??? I have been playing my own picks for the entire year and getting killed and thougt I would check out this website a friend told me about, it is pretty cool other that the people who bash!!! No one told them to bet those games, I have bet Flava's picks for about 3 weeks, but he didn't make me bet that money, I like his info and style, and I will keep tailgating him, if I like his picks.