Mistaflava's NFL SUNDAY AFTERNOON ***Power Picks*** (Writeups and Analysis)

MistaFlava

Cheerleader
2006 NFL Internet Posted Record: 45-31-6 (-41.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 36-23-4 (+21.50 Units)

2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 9-6-2 (-24.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet Half Record: 0-2 (-38.50 Units)

NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 11-2-1 (+172.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-1 (-170.00 Units)


*Reminder: I post the lines I wagered on. These are my plays and personal thoughts on games. I am not asking everyone to agree, only posting these to help people with information.

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Sunday, December 10


Houston Texans -1 (150 Units) ***PLAY OF THE YEAR***

The Tennessee Titans are rolling and I believe this game has the best story line of all the games this week. Yay yay, everyone is jumping up and down at the fact that the hometown boy Vince Young is making his return to the State that saw him win a National Title last season. That's really nice and all but this is the NFL and if I have learned one thing over the years it's that these guys are all professionals and the Texans don't really give a rats ass who is coming in their house for this game. Tennessee has won three straight games as they trampled over the Eagles, ending McNabb's season, they beat out the Giants and they pulled off a miracle win over Indianapolis last week. The Titans have also won three straight games against Houston but I hate the spot they are in this week because the line and the spot have failure written all over them. You guys do know that the Titans are 2-4 on the road this season right? The Titans beat an Ealges team that had lost McBabb to injury and they beat a pathetic Washington team on the road. That was it, that was all. Let me ask you this, had the Titans not won their last three games or had they won just one of those, what would the line be? Exactly. Tennessee is averaging only 15.5 points per game on the road this season but have averaged 299.7 total yards on 4.8 yards per play the last three away from home. Houston's defense has been getting better by the week and they allow only 15.3 points per home game in their last three. They also allow only 304.0 total yards per game and 5.5 yards per play in their last three home games. On the ground, RB Travis Henry and Vince Young have both been running wild recently averaging 170.3 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry. Although Houston allows a few big running plays per game at home, they are allowing only 80.3 rushing yards against in their last three home games. Vince Young is completing a pathetic 43.4% of his passes in the last three road games for only 4.7 yards per pass attempt. He has been sacked 8 times in those games and thrown 3 interceptions. Houston's defense has been bad against the pass but they are improving and they do have 8 sacks in their last three home games. With the pressure they can get on Vince Young, I expect this secondary to make some plays (interceptions) in this game. Houston is one of the best home teams on 3rd down defense at home, allowing only 26.3% of 3rd downs to be converted in the last three home games. That's good news because the Titans are converting only 28.3% of 3rd downs in their last three road games. The Titans have had some luck on the road but their luck runs out this week and they go back to being a team we all like to fade.

The Houston Texans are probably on most of your blacklists for NFL teams by now. I mean how can you back a team that is 5-7 ATS on the season, that has won only four games on the season and that is going to miss the playoffs for who know how many straight seasons now? Well I have found a way. This is definitely the game of the year for this Texans team because all week they have had to hear about the return of the prodigal son Vince Young and all week they have had to listen to their own fans talk about how they can't wait for Young to play in front of them again. Well if that's not motivation for these guys, I don't know what it. The Texans are coming off a big confidence boosting win in Oakland last weekend as they managed to beat a tough Raiders team by 9 points on the road. In their last home game, the Texans had the game all locked up until a very late collapse saw Buffalo sneak a touchdown in at the last second and steal the game away from the Texans. You can't forget that Houston beat the Jaguars twice this season and Vince Young is a bit like both Garrard and Leftwich. The Texans average 21.7 points per game in their last three at home for 340.7 total yards and 5.5 yards per play. Tennessee have allowed 24.0 points per game in their last three road games. On the ground, Wali Lundy and company are rushing for 128.0 yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry in their last three home games. Believe it or not, Tennesse is horrendous against the run allowing 140.3 rushing yards per game in their last three away for 4.9 yards per carry. In the air, QB David Carr has been outstanding, completing 77.0% of his passes for 6.9 yards per pass attempt the last three home games. Tennessee has a good secondary but they don't pressure opposing QB's and have only 2 sacks in their last three road games. Houston is converting 46.5% of 3rd downs in their last three home games while Tennessee allows 41.7% of 3rd downs to be converted against them in their last three away games. I don't know what else to say...the Texans are going to rock the living shit out of Tennessee in this game.

Alright...so everyone loves Vince Young, they love the Tennessee Titans, they love the way this team has been playing and they have fallen in love with the Titans playing in Houston, the hometown of VINCE YOUNG himself. Alrighty then...suite yourselves and swallow the pill before the game even starts. This is the one spot you do not want a rookie QB like Vince Young playing in because a) He's too cocky right now to play in front of family and friends and b) He's going to try and do way too much back in his hometown. You just can't have a rookie thinking he is God like VY thinks he is God right now. I respect his game a lot but the three straight wins have most certainly gone to his head and don't think for one minute that Houston isn't sitting there waiting to pounce on him and his little homecoming party. David Carr is playing The public has lost their minds here. Call me the PARTY CRASHER because I am calling for Vince Young's return home to be a disaster.

Trend of the Game: Tennessee is 3-14 SU in their last 17 away games.


Houston 34, Tennessee 13




Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (25 Units)

The Atlanta Falcons need this game badly to keep their season alive and to keep all playoffs hopes going. If they lose this game, it's lights out basically and the Falcons will go home for another year pondering what the hell went wrong. I mean the Falcons were 5-2 about a month ago this week or a little bit more but they are 1-4 in their last five games and I just don't see how they can go on the road two weeks in a row and win. Every year we have teams like the Falcons in this 6-6 position at this time of the year. These are the teams that people expect to walk all over their opponent that week but this is the NFL...this is not college. There is too much pride on the line for a team like Tampa Bay just lay there and die. Vick has been heavily criticized for his actions on the field as well has his play on the field and the Falcons, for whateve reason, seem to play a lot better against non-division opponents. You could take a look at this game and see that the Falcons are 3-4 ATS in their last seven games but each and everyone of those covers has come as an underdog and not as a favorite. This will be the third time this season that Atlanta is favored on the road and they are 0-2 ATS in that spot. The Falcons average 16.7 points per game on the road this season on 318.0 total yards and 5.5 yards per play. Tampa Bay's defense has not been as stout as in past season but they are getting healthy and healthy means dangerous. They allow 22.5 points per game at home this season but on only 341.2 total yards and 5.6 yards per play. Now we all know that the Falcons will run, can run and do run. They averages 172.8 rushing yards per road game on 5.2 yards per carry. Tampa Bay's defense now has both Wyms and Quarles back in the lineup which should help the 3.5 yards per carry they allow at home. Michal Vick is completing only 52.0% of his passes on the road this season for 5.8 yards per pass attempt. Tampa's defense has struggled badly against the pass at home this season but Vick doesn't have the tools to expose the secondary like Philly and New Orleans were able to do. Tampa has forced 2.2 fumbles per home game and are very aggresive when it comes to tackling. The Falcons have been horrendous on 3rd downs on the road this season, converting only 31.6%. Vick has always had problems winning in Tampa Bay and that shouldn't change in this game.

I have to start by saying that Tampa Bay has seen it all at home this season. They have faced the #1 offense in the NFL, the have faced the #2 offense in the NFL and they have faced the #8 offense in the NFL. All those games were at home and every offense that has played in this stadium has been a TOP 20 offense in the NFL. So do you really think the healthy Tampa Bay defense is going to be worried about playing against the #9 offense in the NFL in this game? Nope. The Buccaneers are 3-9 on the season and with nothing else to play for this season, the Bucs are not going to want to lose another game to Atlanta. Since Michael Vick has been on the Falcons, Tampa Bay has never been swept in the two game series against the Falcons and I don't see it happening this year with so much on the line. I can only count two games this season where Tampa Bay wasn't competitive at home. Apart from the Baltimore and New Orleans games, the Bucs lost to Carolina by two, beat the Bengals and Eagles and then beat Washington...all at home. So the Bucs have now won 3 of their last 4 home games and you can probably make that 4 of 5 once this is all said and done. The Bucs average 19.0 points per game in their last three home games but average only 260.3 total yards per game and 4.6 yards per play in those games. Atlanta's defense has allowed 22.7 points per game in their last three on the road for 381.3 total yards and 5.8 yards per play. On the ground, RB Cadillac Williams loves running against the Falcons, averaging 101.0 yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry. Atlanta's last three road opponents have rushed for 135.7 and 4.4 yards per carry against them so Cadillac should have a big game. In the air, QB Bruce Gradkowski is completing 57.7% of his passes in his last three home games for 5.4 yards per pass attempt. The offensive line is going to have to play tough in this game. What I really like is that Gradkowski has thrown only 1 interception the last three home games. Atlanta's pass defense is allowing a whopping 7.1 yards per pass attempt the last three road games while they allow 47.6% of 3rd downs to be converted. With Gradkowski feeling the heavy pressures of a possible Chris Simms return next season, I expect the rookie to have one of his best games this season.

The general public is pounding Atlanta assuming that because they beat a hapless Washington team on the road last week, they can walk into Tampa Bay and walk all over a team that has nothing to lose. As a matter of fact, Tampa Bay has a great chance to avenge a 14-3 loss earlier in the year by beating the Falcons right out of the playoff race. The Buccaneers have won two straight at home against Atlanta. I find it quite funny that the general public sheep forgave the Falcons for being 1-4 in their last five games while Tampa Bay has the same record. This line doesn't make any sense and you can expect Cadillac Williams to have one of his best days of the season. If you take Atlanta here, you obviously don't know much about sucker or bad lines.

Trend of the Game: Tampa Bay is 9-0 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.


Tampa Bay 28, Atlanta 21




Jacksonville Jaguars +1 (50 Units)

The Indianapolis Colts had to be furious after last week's stunning last second 60 yard field goal loss to the lowly but surging Tennessee Titans. I mean the expression on Peyton Manning's face said it all and all I could think of was that commercial where he says "When they stopped calling me Archie's boy" or something like that. Haha. Anyways. As much as many of you don't want to admit it and as much as you guys can't accept it, the Indianapolis Colts are not the same team as they have been in year's past and they are probably about to lose a few more games before this season is all said and done. The Colts two losses have come on the road this season and now they have to play another very tough road game against a Jackonsville team that has everything on the line. The Titans were able to beat the Colts by running the into the ground, something Jacksonville should have no problems doing while being physical with Manning and his colts. So aside from beating Buffalo by 1 and smacking around a McNabb-less Eagles team, what the hell has Indy done lately? The Colts are averaging only 19.3 points per game in their last three road games on 380.0 total yards and 6.3 yards per play. However, Jacksonville is allowing only 10.0 points per game in their last three at home and allowing only 271.7 total yards per game and 4.1 yards per play in those games. On the ground, do you all remember the Joseph Addai hype a few weeks back? Well the Colts average only 80.3 rushing yards per game in their last three on the road and Jacksonville allows only 3.2 yards per carry in their last three home games. Manning is completing 59.2% of his passes in his last three road games for 8.7 yards per pass attempt. However, he has thrown 5 interceptions and been sacked 5 times in those games. Jacksonville is allowing their last three home opponents to complete only 45.5% of their passes for only 4.8 yards per pass attempt. In those three games, they have 5 sacks and 5 interceptions. The X-Factor in this game will be Jacksonville's ability to hold opponents to only 16.7% touchdown conversions in the Red Zone in their last three home games. They are also good at stopping third downs and the Colts are probably not going to know what hit them after this one.

The Jacksonville Jaguars love to play rough, they love to play tough and they love to play some old school smashmouth kick ass football which is exactly what Peyton Manning and his Colts don't want to see in their second straight road game. Jacksonville is sitting at 7-5 on the year right now and in a good spot to make the playoffs should they win this game and another two after that. So basically Jack Del Rio said that this was the biggest game of the year for the Jaguars because should they lose, there would be too much pressure to win out on the season and he doesn't want that to happen. So it's time to rumble and the Jaguars are going to be ready for the Colts. Jacksonville is coming off a huge 24-10 win in Miami last week and without much travelling to do during the week, they should be well rested, well prepared and extremely well motivated to win this game and shock the NFL world. The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS at home this season and they are getting absolutely no respect from oddsmakers. Sure they went to Buffalo and lost by three a couple of weeks back but that game was a game off for most players. Prior to that, the Jaguars smoked the Giants at home and are happily waiting for Manning and friends. Jacksonville is averaging 24.3 points per game in their last three home games on 359.3 total yards and 6.0 yards per play. The Colts are allowing 20.3 points per game in their last three on the road for 357.7 total yards and 5.7 yards per play. On the ground, RB Fred Taylor has led this team to 152.0 rushing yards on 5.0 yards per carry in their last three home games. Indianapolis is dead last in the NFL against the run and Taylor could possibly rush for 175+ in this game. QB David Garrard has not played all that well but the running game has made up for it. He has completed only 52.3% of his passes the last three weeks at home for 7.1 yards per pass attempt but has thrown 4 interceptions. The good news is that Indianapolis has allowed their last three road opponents to complete 65.1% of their passes for 7.1 yards per pass attempt and they have only 1 sack in those games. This is clearly a defense that is fading and I don't see them being able to handle the big dose of Fred Taylor in this game. Indy's last three road opponents have converted more than 50% of their 3rd down chances while the Jaguars have converted 46.3% of those third downs themselves. I have a feeling this is going to be a shootout and the Jaguars are going to make bigger plays on defense.

Oh boy...the public perception is a disaster this week because everyone is saying to themselves that Indianapolis can't possibly lose a second straight game. Well that's just too bad for you guys because losing two games would not be the end of the world and until the Colts can play another home game and look good like they did against Philly, their defensive flaws are going to continue being exposed. In the first meeting of the season between these two teams, the Colts were outrushed by 128 yards and although that kind of crap works at home sometimes, it sure as hell doesn't work on the road. Newsflash guys...the Colts have too many problems on defense and this is a Jacksonville team that doesn't just hit hard, but they throw sloberknocker punches on every single play. Give me another Colts loss. Smashmouth football always prevails over fundamental football. After this game, im calling him Archie's boy again.

Trend of the Game: Jacksonville is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.


Jacksonville 28, Indianapolis 25




:cheers:
 
"Let me ask you this, had the Titans not won their last three games or had they won just one of those, what would the line be?"

And what happens if the Cowboys didnt win the last three games? They wouldn't be in first place. And what happens if the Texans would have drafted Reggie Bush? And what if, and what if.........
Just saying
 
uncballa16 said:
"Let me ask you this, had the Titans not won their last three games or had they won just one of those, what would the line be?"

And what happens if the Cowboys didnt win the last three games? They wouldn't be in first place. And what happens if the Texans would have drafted Reggie Bush? And what if, and what if.........
Just saying


I think you misunderstood me. What I meant to say is that Tennessee probably should have lost two of those three games which would have made this a completely different betting environment.


GL
 
ill be at the game tomorrow rootin the Texans on (maybe with a brown bag over my head) and i just hope that VY doesnt unleash his wrath

my gut and every chromosome tell me that Tenn wins this so I feel pretty strong about Texans covering in this one
 
:nervous:mad: the Houston play, considering I'm on Tennesee...

GL on everything else, LOVE the Jacksonville play man

'an_horse'
 
With you on Houston and Tampa Bay. I keep going with Indy tho. Maybe someday I will take enough beats from them to stop, just haven't gotten that smart yet. Good Health!!
 
bol although i only disagree with TB, well i should say i have no feelings either way its a fishy line and that usually means take the dog like you are.BOL today 3-0
 
RobertoFiory, whom I have much respect for, has the same picks as you on another website. I like your writeups and his trends so I'm just going to tail you guys today. I also have GB +4.5, AZ +3, BAL/KC O36, DAL/NO U47, and parlayed KC -3 with BAL/KC O36. You've helped me out greatly so far Flavor Flav and I have a good feeling about today. Thank you and BOL:cheers:
 
MistaFlava, this won't really be a road game for the Titans. At least half that crowd will be cheering for the Titans. Also, I don't know where you're getting this VY thinks he is God and the wins have gone to his head talk. What do you have to back that up? I understand where you're coming from situation wise but its not worth "150 units" and the play of the year.
 
albyman32 said:
MistaFlava, this won't really be a road game for the Titans. At least half that crowd will be cheering for the Titans. Also, I don't know where you're getting this VY thinks he is God and the wins have gone to his head talk. What do you have to back that up? I understand where you're coming from situation wise but its not worth "150 units" and the play of the year.

It's just a theory my friend...young QBs tend to get overexcited and its possible that VY was distracted most of the week.
 
Do or die in OT Mista. All about who gets this stupid ass coin toss. God I need this! GL
 
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