Mistaflava's NFL MONDAY NIGHT ***Power Pick*** (Writeup and Analysis)


2006 NFL Internet Posted Record: 44-30-6 (-39.30 Units)
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 35-22-4 (+24.00 Units)

2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 9-6-2 (-24.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet Half Record: 0-2 (-38.50 Units)

NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 11-2-1 (+172.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-1 (-170.00 Units)

*Reminder: I post the lines I wagered on. These are my plays and personal thoughts on games. I am not asking everyone to agree, only posting these to help people with information.


Monday, December 4

Carolina Panthers -3 (25 Units)

The Carolina Panthers, much like seasons past, need some wins badly in December to have a shot at the playoffs. Since the 2002-2003 season, the Panthers are 12-5 in December and have been one of the best teams to bet on. Jake Delhomme is one of the best December QB's in the NFL today. You don't believe me? How do you think the Panthers get into the playoffs every year with a mediocre record come December? Check these numbers out:

Active QB Career December Stats

Carson Palmer, 97.2 Rating (7.7 yards per pass attempt)
Jake Delhomme, 94.7 Rating (8.0 yards per pass attempt)
Peyton Manning, 92.0 Rating (7.7 yards per pass attempt)
Matt Hasselbeck, 90.0 Rating (7.7 yards per pass attempt)
Tom Brady, 87.0 Rating (6.7 yards per pass attempt)
Steve McNair, 86.6 Rating (7.1 yards per pass attempt)
Brett Favre, 85.9 Rating (6.9 yards per pass attempt)
Drew Brees, 81.9 Rating (6.4 yards per pass attempt)

My point here is that when you least expect it and when you badly need the Panthers to win a game, Delhomme is the guys to take them out of hole and gain a lot of respect for doing it. As bad as the Panthers looked last week, that's only one game and everyone is already giving up on these guys. Not many teams (apart from Atlanta) have walked into Washington and won games by more than one or two points this season. Carolina's defense is still one of the best in the NFL. The Panthers are averaging 17.3 points per game in the last three games on 331.0 total yards of offense and 5.1 yards per play. Philadelphia's defense has allowed 26.3 points per game in their last three games on 330.3 total yards and 5.6 yards per play. On the ground, RB DeAngelo Williams is in for Deshaun Foster and that's a good thing. Williams is running the ball a lot better and was probably the best overall RB in college football last season. The Panthers can run all night on this Philly defense as they allow a whopping 197.3 rushing yards per game in their last three for 5.7 yards per carry. I expect Williams to easily hit 100 yards tonight. In the air, Jake Delhomme is still completing almost 60.0% of his passes the last three games. Philadelphia's defense is good against the pass but their inability to stop the run is going to open up some huge passing plays to Steve Smith (who loves the spotlight of Monday Nights). Carolina is converting 40.0% of third downs the last three weeks while Philly is allowing other teams to convert 38.9% of them. Philly's last three opponents have scored TD's 75% of the time when entering the Red Zone. I just don't see how the Carolina offense doesn't kick things into 5th gear tonight.

The Philadelphia Eagles season is on the line or so everyone has talked about all weekend. I don't buy that at all. Judging by the way the defense played last week and judging by some interviews this week, the Philadelphia Eagles season ended when Donovan McNabb went down and nothing is going to change. This team knows they are going nowhere with Jeff Garcia, as well as he has played in the NFL, and it has shown in their recent play. With both teams needing a win badly tonight, Carolina definitely has the big advantage. The Eagles have now lost two straight games and have lost five of their last six. Take away their heart and soul in McNabb and there is no end in sight for a team that is completely free falling. Like I said before, the Eagles need to win this game tonight or they can kiss their season goodbye. The only issue I have with that is since they couldn't get up to play for five of their last six games, I don't see why this game would make them want to show up and win, specially not after a demoralizing road loss in Indianapolis. The Eagles average 20.3 points per game in their last three on 363.3 total yards and 5.3 yards per play. Carolina's defense however has been one of the best in the NFL the last three games as they have allowed only 9.0 points per game on 195.3 total yards and 3.8 yards per play. On the ground, the Eagles had success running the ball last week which is the only reason they scored points. Carolina's defense however allows only 81.0 rushing yards per game in their last three. In the air, Garcia will have his hands full. The Panthers have 11 sacks in their last three games, they have intercepted 4 passes and opposing teams are completing only 52.8% of their passes for 3.7 yards per pass attempt. Philly is converting 43.8% of third downs the last three weeks but Carolina is allowing only 22.5% to be converted against them in those three games. There is no way this Philly offense comes alive on a Monday Night against the hottest defense in the NFL.

I am not usually one to jump on the public train usually destined for the slaughter house but I don't believe in this Philly team at all. You have to understand that John Fox/Jake Delhomme and this Carolina team are one of the best in December over the last three of four years. The line does seem too low and the public is all over it but I just can't bet against the Panthers in this spot because they have too much sleeping ammunition and its Monday Night. Tonight will be the DeAngelo Williams NFL breakout party and this is one game Vegas doesn't mind losing with the majority of people losing money on the weekend. Carolina's defense is #1 in the NFL over the last three weeks allowing less than 200 yards per game. Big win for the Panthers.

Trend of the Game: Carolina is 5-2-1 ATS in December the last two seasons.

Carolina 28, Philadelphia 6

Wish you good health but the home dogs are just barking too loud this week for me and on the big stage of Monday night I can't go against em
Kmacc said:
Wish you good health but the home dogs are just barking too loud this week for me and on the big stage of Monday night I can't go against em

Fair enough but I have yet to see decent arguments as to why Philly is a play tonight. I just don't understand apart from them being a home dog.

carolina's offensive line isn't as good as last year. don't get me wrong i'm not saying the eagles is the play but it's something to put into consideration
I play devils advocate here.......

The Eagles at 5-6 with with a win are still alive in the playoff picture!! If they won NYG , Car , Atl & Philly would be tied at 6-6!!!!!! How scary is that!!! Then they get to play @ Wash next week...

The way I see it Carolina backers have to be concerned with there offense lately while Eagle backers have to be concerned with phillys defensive woes...

The Panthers away are 2-3 SU with losses of 3 , 3 , and 4. They have wins of 2 @ Balt and 2 @ TB...allowing both teams to comeback late. So laying points with them is risky on the road from that standpoint but I would never say previous outcomes correlate to future outcomes...its more a measuring stick of how good this team is or isnt. You do get CAR in a great spot off a bad loss to Wash.

However I saw that Was was -1 this week vs Philly which says neutral field Eagles are 2 pt better...which I think we all agree on. Now if Car is to fat @ -4 in washington AND since Philly is 2 pts better it should read closer to Car -2 here. Now since I felt the Car line in Wash was fat maybe adjust this down one pt further so we should see Carolina -1 here not the -3...

They do say QB's play better iin there second game and that seems to have held true with Romo and some of other guys... and IMO Garcia wasnt the problem its was Eagles run defense...

With Carolina they are always a 2nd H team but look at this...
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow1 align=right height=16><TD class=yspscores align=left>Last 4 Games Delhomme </TD><TD class=yspscores>4</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=yspscores>69.4</TD><TD class=yspscores>75</TD><TD class=yspscores>128</TD><TD class=yspscores>58.6</TD><TD class=yspscores>748</TD><TD class=yspscores>187.0</TD><TD class=yspscores>5.8</TD><TD class=yspscores>4</TD><TD class=yspscores>5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Also since the BYE they hoste TB at home and were far from impressive not being able to do anything on offense , they hosted the RAms and managed 15 pts!!!!!!!!! Then they traveled to Wash and scored 13 pts!!!

This is not a trend anymore and include the DAllas game in this. The Panthers are having significant trouble on OFFENSE.......Not sure what the weather will be like tonite but you have to think near freezing for a warm weather Carolina team could be an issue.....

Still looking at this game. However do I lean towards Philly here and think the UNDER is a soild / strong play...

GL all
Good discussions all around... Not sure I have seen this board this divided over a game. I guess the good thing is about half of us are guaranteed to win...wonder which half?

BOL fella's:cheers:
Fort Worth Horn said:
Good discussions all around... Not sure I have seen this board this divided over a game. I guess the good thing is about half of us are guaranteed to win...wonder which half?

BOL fella's:cheers:

Well, with the line at 3, we could get a push... That way, no one really wins, or loses! I lean towards Carolina, but that is more of a heart play. I may sit this one out as I haven't been doing all that well with the NFL this year. If I do bet, I will definitely pay some extra juice to get this number off the 3!
I am not sure about the UNDER after seeing the following, I'm gonna play the OVER...

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Carolina's last 21 games on the road

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 9 games at home
Flava and The Rest Of Ya Carolina Backers I'M With ya but gonna go on the over,im thinking philly D is soft , Carolina breaks out runs Forever and smith ,johnson big games as well carolina 31- PHILLY 17 GL ALL