Mistaflava's NFL MONDAY NIGHT ***Power Pick*** (Writeup and Analysis)


2006 NFL Internet Posted Record: 33-18-5 (+114.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 24-13-3 (+112.10 Units)

2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 9-5-2 (+2.70 Units)

NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 8-0-1 (+105.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)

48-22-2 (69%) ATS in Football the last five weeks

*Reminder: I post the lines I wagered on. These are my plays and personal thoughts on games. I am not asking everyone to agree, only posting these to help people with information.


Monday, November 6

Seattle Seahawks -7 (10 Units)

The Oakland Raiders are a bad team with or without some of their big name players. Did you know that the Raiders won their game last week against the Steelers on only 93 total yards of offense which would probably lead a lot of people to think they can do the same tonight if their defense makes as many big plays as they made in that game. Well what have learned about this Raiders team anyways? Their defense is the only reason they have won big games and the two teams they have beat this year are Pittsburgh and Arizona (combined 3 wins in 16 games). Like I said, they have a very good and well coached defensive unit but things can get frustrating when the offense is living without a pulse...literally. The weather is going to be horrendous for the game tonight so that means that both teams will have to show their ability to run the ball and complete the short pass. The Raiders have not shown the ability to pass the ball nor have they shown the ability to run the ball unless starting with possession off a turnover caused by the defense. QB Andrew Walter got his chance against the Seahawks starting defense in the pre-season and he went 3 for 8 with 26 passing yards. If you were to ask me right now, Walter had not made any strides whatsoever since that game so the Seahawks know what they have to do with the weather in order to force him into horrible decisions. The Raiders are averaging only 9.7 points per road game this season on 258.7 total yards and 4.7 yards per play. The Seahawks defense has been horrendous this year but were pegged as a TOP 5 defense before the season started. They are allowing 23.7 points per game at home this season but on only 308.3 total yards and 5.6 yards per play. Time to step things up for this D. On the ground (which is essential to winning the game tonight), the Raiders are averaging only 92.7 rushing yards per road game on 3.8 yards per carry while Seattle is allowing a whopping 4.8 yards per carry at home this year. No worries, they will shut the holes down tonight. In the air, Walter has been horrendous on the road. He is completing only 48.2% of his passes for 5.9 yards per pass attempt but has no protection from his pathetic O-Line. The Seahawks have great blitz packages with LB Julian Peterson and they should easily get to Walter forcing big time turnovers. Oakland's line have allowed 11 sacks on the road while Seattle have 10 home sacks. Walter has also thrown 8 interceptions on the road this year while Seattle's underachieving secondary have 4 interceptions at home. Walter won't be called on to pass much in this one but when he does, he will either fumble the snap, let the ball slip out when he is hit by heavy blitzing or throw very bad interceptions. Walter does not have the ability to run which is a big time handicap here.

The Seattle Seahawks have all the odds stacked against them in this game and on the season. RB Sean Alexander starter the disaster by letting the living legend of the Madden cover curse live on beyond past years. The came the injury to QB Matt Hasselbeck who is also out for quite a bit of time so it's time to concentrate on the task at hand. The Seahawks are only 4-3 on the season and still have a great chance to make the playoffs if they can win games like this. Andrew Walter (Raiders QB) has been given plenty of opportunities to show he can start in the NFL and as a starter he has thrown 6 interceptions and has lost 3 fumbles. He's not ready for this kind of game. Seattle QB Seneca Wallace on the other hand, has a lot more potential for a game like this. I say that because Wallace really showed great poise and potential in his first NFL start last week. He managed to lead the offense to 28 points in a very boisterous and hostile environment in KC. Sure he threw 2 INT's but he also threw 3 TD passes and showed us some serious speed running for 21 yards on 3 carries. The key to this game? Wallace running the ball. Some of you don't know this but Wallace was a college star at Iowa State. In 25 games with Iowa State, Wallace ran for 912 yards, 15 TD's and passed for 5289 yards (2nd all time in school history). Not only is he capable of running the ball and keeping the Raiders defense off-balance but he is also able to throw it but needs to cut down on mistakes. Did you know that Seneca Wallace led the Seahawks offense in the 30-7 pre-season rout of Oakland by completing 8 of 13 passes. He also had an impressive 21 yard run in that game. The Seahawks are going up against the elements and the Raiders who allow 25.0 points per road game on only 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, Seattle has not been able to generate much since Alexander's injury but like I said earlier, I expect Wallace to run a lot tonight and since the Raiders will stack the box with eight guys, Wallace should be able to complete short passes. Oakland's run defense has not been the same on the road as it has at home as they are allowing 149.0 rushing yards per road game and 4.3 yards per carry away from home. Wallace is going to have to be smart tonight. Oakland is allowing more than 40% of third downs to be converted on the road this season and I would love for Wallace to run the ball instead of passing it when the lane is open. Oakland's defense is going to blitz just as much as Seattle's defense in an attempt to throw the inexperienced QB off his tracks. However, the fact that Wallace can move and the fact that Mike Holmgren knows how to coach young QB's is definitely going to be a positive for not only the team but for the passing game as well. WR Deion Branch is the perfect kind of receiver in a game like this before he runs short routes perfectly and makes things easy for a QB like Wallace. I like Seattle to win this game.

The public has spent countless hours today talking about the bad weather and the UNDER. I agree, good move. However, it seems like with all the clowns playing in this game we could be in for a lot of bad punts, blocked punts, fumbled snaps, fumbles that roll near the endzone and so on. However, I disagree big time with all you Oakland backers because of one reason...the pre-season meeting between these two teams. Seattle's starters barely played in that game so it was Andrew Walter versus Seneca Wallace with both starting defenses playing most of the game. The Seahawks won 30-7 and Wallace was the hero. As a 49ers fan growing up in California, he always hated the Raiders. This line is bogus, it should be a lot lower than 7 with neither team being much better than the other. The Raiders look like the easy play but they are far from that. 10 of 13 underdogs won this weekend, which means Vegas is setting some up for a dog trap tonight. I'll be damned if 11 of 14 dogs hit this week.

Trend of the Game: Oakland is 0-5 ATS in their last five Monday Night games.

Seattle 24, Oakland 13

home team is 10-0 ATS in 10 meetings. over last 5 meetings and 7 outta last 10.

this is what i think will happen for 4 full quarters.

Seattle: run, run, pass incomplete, punt
Oakland: run, run, look for moss - incomplete, punt
Seattle: pass, run (loss of yards), shotgun run, punt
Oakland: run, hail mary to moss - incomplete, incomplete, punt

final score is something like 14-10 or 17-9

its either oakland or no play for me.

best of luck mistaflava
I'm witcha Flave on Seahawks! I liked already and with you one em, that just helps my decision! On the over here too!! GL and keep up the good work.:shake:
Another trend for the game Mista: Oak 7-2 ats last 9 away in Nov, also Oak 7-2 last 9 ats vs Seattle. Very nice call with Indy last night, keep up the solid work.
D-Lone said:
Good call Flava! I'm liking NIU tommorrow night! Hopefully you are too!!!!

I have a big play in hoops tomorrow so will most likely be counting my winnings from the pigskin weekend and dropping a load on NBA. See you guys on Thursday for the Rutgers-Louisville game.
Nice call Flava. Had Oak +7 and really don't know what I was thinking. Oak is a bad football team. Glad I played it small.