Mistaflava's NFL MONDAY NIGHT ***Power Pick*** (Writeup and Analysis)


<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->2006 NFL Internet Posted Record: 50-40-6 (-311.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 41-30-4 (-193 .50 Units)

2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 9-7-2 (-79.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet Half Record: 0-2 (-38.50 Units)

NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 11-2-1 (+172.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-2 (-335.00 Units)

*I am in the midst of a 3-4 week freefall in the NFL and in College football. I have nobody to blame but myself. I spent a few good hours thinking about what to do for the remaining few weeks and I have decided to go back to the basics of capping. Just good hardcore capping, no thinking, just bet with the gut and some stat support.


Monday, December 18

Cincinnati Bengals +3 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***

The Cincinnati Bengals need to win tonight if they want to keep their wildcard playoff hopes alive. It has been a long and testing season for these guys but they look to be back in 2005 form and if they can control the ground game and pound away on the Indianapolis defense, I think they can win this game. The Bengals have now won four straight games and are looking like the team nobody is going to want to face in the first round of the playoffs. We all know that Cincinnati is going to want to run the ball in a game like tonight because Jacksonville, Dallas and Tennessee all stomped on the Colts by running the ball. I have heard a lot this week about how the rush defense can be fixed on the Colts side of things and how the Colts are ranked #2 in pass defense in the NFL. Well the only reason they are ranked #2 is because of the amount of times opposing teams run on them. The pass defense stat is about as useless as it gets because Indianapolis is #2 and opposing QB Ratings against them are 79.8 while the New England Patriots are ranked #13 against the pass but opposing QB Ratings are only 63.5 against them. Don't get caught up reading some crazy stats like that. The Bengals are averaging 23.3 points per game in their last three games for 373.7 total yards and 5.8 yards per play. On the ground, RB Rudi Johnson loves running indoors but has struggled his last three games so hopefully the indoor confines get him back on his high horse. I say that because the Colts have allowed 247.7 rushing yards against on 7.3 yards per carry the last three weeks and I doubt you can fix that with a week's worth of practice. Whatever it is the Colts may try to fix, it will open things up in the air for Carson Palmer who has played two career indoor games. In those games his QB Rating is 109.3 with 6 touchdowns, a 68.9% completion rate and 9.0 yards per pass attempt. In his last three games, Palmer has completed 72.6% of his passes for 8.6 yards per pass attempt. The Colts secondary is allowing 67.6% of passes to be completed against them the last three weeks for 5.7 yards per pass attempt. They have only three sacks in those games so Palmer should have time to throw the ball deep to OCHO CINCO! Cincinnati is converting 47.4% of their 3rd downs the last three weeks while Indianapolis is allowing 46.9% to be completed against them. The Bengals are on too much of a hot streak to stop now and I would take the Palmer/Ocho/Cincinnati defense in December combination anyday over the Manning/Harrison/Run Defense.

The Indianapolis Colts are now 10-3 on the season, quickly fading out of the top two spots in the AFC and if they keep this up, they won't make it past their first round in the playoffs. I know the Colts want to get back on track in this game but why should they give a damn? They have already won their division with the Jaguars losing yesterday. It is also highly unlikely that they can get homefield advantage now that the Chargers won their Sunday Nighter so why should the Colts come out here and waste all they have to win this game by more than a few points? I don't question their motivation here because I have no doubt that after being embarassed last week, they are going to come out guns blazing but the question remains, can their defense hold long enough or hold enough times for the offense to be have a shot in this one? I mean Manning and the offense would blink once last week and they would be down a touchdown. They would blink twice and be down two touchdowns...and so on. The Colts only have 4 home wins of more than three points this season and those were against Houston, Jacksonville (w/Leftwich), Washington and Philadelphia. Apart from a then pathetic Jacksonville team, they've only beat up at home on NFC Teams. Tennessee and Buffalo were the only AFC home opponents and they both lost by one point. The Colts are averaging 26.3 points per game on 403.3 total yards and 6.4 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. However, Cincinnati's defense is playing as well as they have played in the last few years, allowing 5.7 points per game in their last three games on only 247.3 total yards and 4.6 yards per play. On the ground, rookie RB Joseph Addai has not run well since his big game against Philly and the Colts average 123.7 rushing yards per game in their last three. Cincinnati has allowed only 61.7 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry in their last three games. In the air, Peyton Manning is starting to get pissed off. He is completing 61.2% of his passes the last three weeks for 8.2 yards per pass attempt but he has thrown 3 interceptions and has only one win. Cincinnati's pass defense is not the best but they have held their last three opponents to 5.0 yards per pass attempt. In their last three games they have recorded 8 sacks, have recovered 3 fumbles and have 5 interceptions. This defense is playing with big time confidence. They are allowing only 38.1% of 3rd downs to be converted against them the last three weeks and I see the Indianapolis offense having yet another frustrating week where they score points but their defense can't stop the opponent.

What makes all you Indianapolis bettors so sure that the Colts are not going to come back home after two straight losses and win this game by either 1 or 2 points like they did in two of their last four home games (versus Buffalo and Tennessee). Indianapolis is still DEAD LAST in the rush defense standings and the only reason they have three losses this season is because they got demolished on the ground. What you Indianapolis Colts backers need to understand is that the Colts are not the same as they were in 2005 or 2004 or 2003. This is a much weaker team and if the last month didn't prove anything to you, I'm not too sure why you still trust them. I am guessing Vegas doesn't care much for the side in this game because we all seem to be split 50/50. So much like last night, this game will probably stay UNDER the number and that will be where Vegas made their cash. Oddsmakers doubted Cincinnati by slapping them with the +3.5 in New Orleans about a month ago and the Bengals answered that with a 31-16 win. Who dey! Who dey! Who dey think gonna beat dem Bengals? NOBODY!

Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games versus a team with a winning home record.

Cincinnati 27, Indianapolis 26

I agree with raider I think the Colts come out fireing at home and roll these Jabronis... so I have to fade but gl anyway
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u know what i've noticed....we are both dog bettors (i prefer them in cbb while you take them in nfl.) law of averages is kicking us in the sack right now (i have no idea how this football game is going considering both espn and espn2 just turned black.) just stating an obvious notation i wondered if you've considered.
Sorry im hammered, I was trying to copy and paste a comment from another forum and respond to it but I obvioulsy posted it here instead. Sorry.
Mista ...

I feel I know why you are struggling. Its quite simple you are out thinking yourself and trying to play the role of contrarian. Everytime I open your thread I know who your gonna be on ...the side that seems less public..get that mess out of your head and get back to the basics..

Your just 'thinking' to much at this point..BOL

I would have to agree with Sportnut regarding his comments. I to also think that you may be over analyzing the games. Over analyzing games happens to everybody and it has happened to me ALSO. Anyway, Hope you SNAP OUT OF IT SOON as I KNOW you are a VERY WELL RESPECTED CAPPER.

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