MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 CFB Bowl Record: 8-13 (-$15500)
2006 CFB Bowl ATS Record: 8-13 (-$15500)
2006 CFB Bowl O/U Record: 0-0 (+$0.00)
2006 CFB Season Record: 76-59-3 (-$4700)
1 Unit = $100
Back on track with a win on Nevada last night and now it's time to get the year started off with a big bang on the first of the month. Happy New Year to all and let's make some cash!
---------------------------------
2006 CFB Bowl ATS Record: 8-13 (-$15500)
2006 CFB Bowl O/U Record: 0-0 (+$0.00)
2006 CFB Season Record: 76-59-3 (-$4700)
1 Unit = $100
Back on track with a win on Nevada last night and now it's time to get the year started off with a big bang on the first of the month. Happy New Year to all and let's make some cash!
---------------------------------
Outback Bowl
Penn State Nittany Lions +3.5 (10 Units)
The Penn State Nittany Lions are underdogs in a Bowl Game for the first time since 1997 (10 year anniversary). The Nitts came into this season having lost some big time offense with the departure of QB Michale Robison. The dropoff in offensive production was a full 11.9 points and even at that, people were counting out Joe Paterno's 41st edition of his Nittany Lions because they were brining back only 4 defensive starters. Well the Nittany Lions not only improved on their defense from 2005 but they shaved off 2.2 points per game allowed and are currently ranked #19 in Total Yards allowed, #15 in rushing yards allowed and #14 in points allowed. That's with only 4 returning starters compared to 2005 when they had 9 returning starters and sucked ass in the Orange Bowl. I know Joe Paterno will be there coaching with his messed up leg and all and I am a strong believer in betting on coaches that know how to win Bowl Games. Paterno has taken this team to 32 Bowl Games and is 21-10-1 in those games (3-2 since 1997). It's tough to measure how Penn State is going to matchup with Tennessee because they haven't played anyone like them all year. The closest was Notre Dame and the Nitts got blown out. Penn State is 2-0 lifetime versus the Vols but those games were more than 10 years ago so we can't value them too much. Penn State comes into this game averaging 22.5 points per game and they have done it by averaging 347.4 total yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. Tennessee's defense has allowed 19.5 points per game this season by allowing 323.2 total yards and 5.3 yards per play. On the ground, RB Tony Hunt finally had his breakout year rushing for 1228 yards (he had 1934 rushing yards in his three previous seasons combined). That's 236 yards off the Penn State all-time record so it would be wise not to underestimate Hunt in this game. Tennessee has had problems with tough speedy backs this year (McFadden had 181 yards, LSU's 5 backs had success and Wynn had 104 yards just to name a few). The Vols are allowing 143.7 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry this year. In the air, QB Anthony Morelli never really got in a groove this year completing 53.7% of his passes for 6.2 yards per pass attempt, 10 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Tennessee's secondary has allowed 57.5% of passes to be completed against them for a whopping 7.0 yards per pass attempt meaning Deon Butler, Derrick Williams and Tony Hunt could all have the opportunity to break free and gain some big yardage if Morelli sees them and finds them man not covered by either Hefney or Wade. The Nittany Lions had fumbling problems all season long losing 16 fumbles on the year but as fast as Tennessee's defense is, they managed to recover only 4 fumbles all year long. That won't do them much good in this game. If they can't force turnovers, Tony Hunt is going to run all over them like other teams have this season and that will make things a lot easier on Penn State's defense (something they don't need). I think Hunt is the key to this game and I'll call for him to hit the 100 rushing yard mark in this game.
The Tennssee Volunteers are all about one thing...the good ole 'GUN AND HAVE SOME FUN'. The Vols finished the season with a 9-3 record (7-5 ATS). After such a disappointing season in 2005, Tennessee quickly got back on track but are they that much better than last year's team? I think the level of execution this year was much better and the fact that they had a #1 quarterback all season was definitely the turning point for these guys. I have to admit I was impressed by this team from the getgo this year because not only are they one of the most athletic teams but they have some crazy speed. That's actually the reason I like the Big 10 teams in the Bowl Season is because they are all equally quick this year and anyone who watch Ohio State and Michigan knows that it was a game full of speed. Apart from beating Georgia on the road this year (turned out to not be such a big deal in the end), Tennessee lost to Arkansas, beat South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Memphis. Although not as powerful on the ground as Arkansas, Penn State most resembles the Razorbacks (of all the Tennessee opponents this year) and that could spell trouble for Fulmer and the Vols because Arkansas beat them 31-14 with a similar style of running without a good QB. Tennessee is averaging 29.3 points per game this season and they have done it on 374.3 total yards per game on 6.1 yards per play. However, Penn State is very good defensively and this is LB Paul Poluszsny's last game. He's a tremendous captain on this team and he'll have his defense ready to rumble. The Nittany Lions are allowing only 279.0 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per play so I think they can make some big stops. On the ground, RB Lamarcus Coker is good when they use him but the Vols are more of a passing team. I don't see Coker having much success in this game regardless because Penn State allows 87.8 rushing yards per game and only 2.8 yards per carry this year. These Linebackers are the real deal. In the air, QB Erik Ainge completed 66.9% of his passes for 8.8 yards per pass attempt, 19 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. However, Penn State is allowing only 54.3% of passes to be completed against them for only 5.6 yards per pass attempt this season. Penn State is what I like to call an opportunistic defense because they have 12 interceptions on the year and have forced 22 fumbles. Tennessee will have success only if they stay away from Anthony Scirotto who has 5 interceptions. We all know Ainge is going to be looking for Robert Meacham and Jayson Swain but Penn State's young secondary has played well all season and they should be up for the task in this game. The Vols are a very good team and on normal circumstance they should be able to win this game but could this be the Grande Finale for Joe Paterno if he wins the game? Has he kept it a big secret this entire time? Quite possibly and that is why I really like Penn State here.
We are in for a treat in this game as Phillip Fulmer meets Joe Paterno for the second time ever and that's 56 years combined of coaching these two programs for those guys. Absolute classic. Since it all comes down to program bragging rights between two very good veteran coaches, wouldn't this game be easy to cap if all we had to do was look at which program has won the most Bowl Games and that's who will win this Bowl Game. History is alive and history says Penn State has 24 Bowl Game wins and Tennessee has 24 Bowl Game wins. Tiebreaker? Which coach has the the best winning percentage in Bowl Games? Joe Paterno 68%, Phillip Fulmer 54% (7-6). There ya go. If you're too lazy to do the math or to cap the game to the extreme, just go with the best of the two legendary coaches in Bowl Games. Penn State resembles Arkansas quite a bit and that's really bad not good news for all of you on Tennessee. I say that because Penn State has better defense than Arkansas and they are almost the same on offense. Arkansas had no problems beating Tennessee 31-14 so I expect Penn State to give it a great run and probably lose by 1 or win the game straight up.
Trend of the Game: Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in their las five games versus a team with a winning record.
Penn State 21, Tennessee 16
Cotton Bowl
Auburn Tigers -1.5 (10 Units)
The Nebraska Cornhuskers come into this Cotton Bowl was the underdogs, a spot that has not been all that friendly to them this year. The Huskers are 1-2 ATS this year as underdogs and that doesn't bode well for a team that comes out of the Big 12 (they are 0-2 ATS this season). Nebraska is in the 3rd year of Bill Calahan's offense and as well as they have played this year, I was not impressed with them in big games away from home. The Huskers went to USC earlier in the year and got blown out as 16 point underdogs. They then took their show on the road against Iowa State and Kansas State, beating both by nice margins. However, Oklahoma State killed them on the road and that was the game that perhaps woke this team up. They finished the season on a 3-0 run, including a win in College Station before getting demolished by Oklahoma in the Big 12 Title Game. I really have my doubts about this team peforming well against good defenses because they should have beat Texas at home but choked in that game too. Sure they were great in last year's Alamo Bowl but that was as a huge underdog and this year is not so much the same. The Huskers are 3-2 ATS in their last five Bowl Games but all three ATS wins came in the Alamo Bowl and this is not the Alamo Bowl. The Cornhuskers are comfortable in their third year under Bill Callahan as they average 31.8 points per game on the season for 428.8 total yards per game and 6.2 yards per play. However, Auburn is not the kind of defense you want to mess around with as they have allowed only 13.9 points per game this season for 297.5 total yards and only 5.0 yards per play. On the ground, Nebraska is averaging a whopping 175.6 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry this season. Brandon Jackson, Marlon Lucky and Cody Glenn are all stud running backs but how much damage can they do against an Auburn defense that has allowed only 125.8 rushing yards per game this season on 3.8 yards per carry? In the air, QB Zac Taylor has really developped nicely under Callahan and he has completed 60.0% of his passes this season for 8.4 yards per pass attempt, 25 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions. However, I have big time questions about the offensive line for Nebraska as Taylor has been sacked 26 times this season and Auburn's defense has 28 sacks of their own. Once Nebraska's running game doesn't work, Taylor will probably be under big time pressure in this game as Auburn is allowing only 54.8% of passes to be completed against them for only 6.6 yards per pass attempt. This secondary has underachieved all season with only 9 interceptions to speak of and I expect them to have a big game here today. As long as WR Maurice Purify is not allowed to break free, Auburn should have no problems forcing this team into making mistakes. The Huskers have fumbled 23 times this season and Auburn is one of the best takeaway teams in the Country with 24 fumbles forced and 14 fumbles recovered. Look for the Auburn defense to make things up for a mediocre season with a poweful and dominant performance against a Big 12 offense that isn't hard to figure out.
The Auburn Tigers were supposed to possibly go unbeaten all year long but that plan was somehow rudely derailed when they lost to Arkansas in the first week to October and had to settle for being a 10-2 on the season. However, I read somewhere that over the last three seasons, Auburn is the 3rd best program in the Nation with their 37-5 record over that span which could be concerning considering that they are so good but not in the BCS this season. The reason I am personally not too concerned about this is because Tommy Tuberville is a very good coach and Tommy is now only 4-3 in his seven Bowl Games as the Auburn head coach. The 24-10 loss to Wisconsin as 10 point favorites in last year's Capital One Bowl was as embarassing as it gets and I doubt Tuberville is going to let his team get embarassed against by a weaker conference school. Sure the players might be disappointed at not playing in the BCS but they did come out and play well against Alabama after losing to Georgia the week before and something tells me that this team just wants to win a Bowl Game this year and have pretty much forgotten about the rest. It would be smart if Tuberville made this season all about winning this Bowl game beacause the Tigers need momentum heading into next season. Auburn is averaging 25.4 points per game this season and they have done it by averaging 332.8 total yards per game and 5.8 yards per play. Nebraska's defense is much improved from year's past but they are still allowing 18.4 points per game this season on 343.7 total yards of offense and 5.4 yards per play on the year. On the ground, RBs Kenny Irons and Brad Lester both had very decent seasons. Nebraska allows only 120.4 rushing yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry for the season but if Irons and Lester can both get some big yardage early in this game, the passing attack should be wide open all night. In the air, QB Brandon Cox is not the reason I am on the Tigers because he's just another Sean Glennon to me. Actually, he's much better than that having completed 61.2% of his passes this season for 8.3 yards per pass attempt, 13 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Nebraska's secondary is allowing only 53.6% of passes to be completed against them for 6.8 yards per pass attempt which is why the running game is so important for Auburn in this game. Nebraska have a decent pass rush and Cox has been sacked 29 times this year so he needs to be careful and need to take care of the ball. Nebraska do not have many big play guys in their secondary so Cox might get away with a few bad throws in this game. I also really like that Auburn has lost only 8 fumbles all year long and that they are ranked pretty high in the turnover margin category. The key to this game for Auburn is to run the ball, catch Nebraska sleeping on some play action and keep the ball in your hands as long as possible. This is going to be a dogfight for the Tigers beacause Nebraska is so good on offense but in the end, the Tigers are effective enough to make some plays of their own and I am banking on them scoring enough points to give their defense a good chance to make plays.
Many experts picked Auburn to be in the BCS Championship Game at the end of the year but that obviously didn't happen. Tuberville has a huge challenge ahead of him and that is to keep this team focused long enough to win this Bowl Game and salvage some pride from the season. Auburn can definitely be a big time contender next season but it all starts tonight with a win. If you don't win your Bowl Games, you don't go into the Spring with momentum and one things leads to another. Nebraska had their best year under Bill Callahan but I don't trust them in big games and the fact that they couldn't seal the deal at home against Texas a few months back has me convinced that they are still a few years away from being a National Title Contender. Auburn on the other hand has kind of been forgotten with all the talk of LSU, Florida and Arkansas this season. Well forgetting about them is a big mistake because they are the 3rd best team in the Country over the last three seasons and winning this Bowl game means a lot more to them than we think. GO TIGERS!
Trend of the Game: Auburn is 4-0-1 ATS in their last fives games where they are favored by 0.5 to 3 points.
Auburn 31, Nebraska 24
Gator Bowl
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +9.5 (10 Units)
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets come into their Bowl Game with quite a different story than any other team this season. The Jackets will be without their starting QB of the last three years as Reggie Ball is not academically eligible to play in this game, virtually ending his less than illustrious career at Georgia Tech. Now what I challenge you to figure out is if this is a bad thing for the Yellow Jackets or if this could be a blessing in disguise. Georgia Tech had an impressive 9-4 record this season which turned out to be their best since the year 2000. Sure the ACC was horrendously weak this year but Georgia Tech consistently came through until the ACC Championship Game where they lost an uninspired effort against Wake Forest. Not a big deal. So in comes QB Taylor Bennett who has played in 5 games this season. Bennett had one start in 2005 and was able to attempt 29 passes this season throwing for two touchdowns and one interceptions. Bennett is not the most talented quarterback but the scouting report on him is that he studies film like no other play on this team and spends countless hours reviewing game film in preparation for upcoming games. Now that is something I want to hear coming from a quarterback before I bet on him in a big Bowl Game. The Yellow Jackets come in here averaging only 24.2 points per game this season and they have done it by also averaging 320.2 total yards per game on 5.0 yards per play. West Virginia's defense has been sharp at times but also very weak at times and they have allowed 20.6 points per game on the season for 324.2 total yards and only 5.0 yards per play. Georgia Tech will probably rely heavily on the run game in this one to keep Bennett from making big mistakes and that's not a bad idea. The Jackets average a whopping 162.6 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per carry this season and they have a powerful offensive line. West Virginia is allowing only 87.8 rushing yards per game this season on 2.8 yards per carry so eventually, Georgia Tech will have to start throwing. Like I said before, Bennett has thrown 2 touchdown passes this year and he has completed 55.2% of his passes which is already more than Reggie Ball by about 10%. In the 29 snaps he took this season, Bennett was not sacked once and that's good because West Virginia has a very good D-Line and a very good pass rush. Timing might be off a bit to start the game but Bennett needs to find the time to make his reads and find the open receiver downfield. West Virginia's secondary is solid but they rely on the pass rush and if the pass rush doesn't work, neither does the pass defense. The Mountaineers are allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt this season and they have made 16 interceptions and recovered only 7 fumbles on the year. Georgia Tech has lost only 5 fumbles all season long and the key to this game will be to get RB Tashard Choice going on the ground and protecting Bennett as much as possible so he can hit the BIG 21 downfield for some huge gains. If anyone is going to allow Calvin Johnson to have a huge day, it's West Virginia.
The West Virginia Mountaineers are coming off an excellent 10-2 season but most bettors don't really give a shit because the Mountaineers are only 5-5-1 ATS this season and unless you picked your spots with them on occasion, they didn't make you much money. I know it was going to be a big issue if the Rich Rodriguez coaching change rumors had not been squashed by the man himself but now that he has announced that he is going to be back as head coach for a very long time, his team should be happy and inspired to play for a loyal man like that. However, the only issue I have with this Bowl Game and betting on the easy looking pick of West Virginia is that they are probably going to come in here and badly underestimate how well Georgia Tech's defense can play, making up for all their offensive woes. Louisville and South Florida are the only two teams who managed to beat the Mountaineers and Rutgers was the only other team that came within 10 points of them this year. Like I said earlier though, most people who are about to bet money on this game don't really care how well this team did this year, they care more about if they covered the spread and by how much. Well...they are a lot more used to the large spreads so the attitude might be a bit different. West Virginia comes into this game averaging a whopping 38.9 points per game on 463.0 total yards per game and 7.3 yards per play. However, Georgia Tech's defense is as stout as they get and they have allowed only 16.8 points per game all season long and they have done it by allowing 289.3 total yards on only 4.4 yards per play. We all know how well West Virginia can run the football but the key here will be for DE's and LB's to make their tackles and ensure that Slaton and White don't bust out big 60+ yard rushes because those are just killer. Georgia Tech is allowing only 88.5 rushing yards per game on 2.9 yards per carry this season and although the Mountaineers might have some success, they won't but their usual huge runs. In the air, QB Pat White has been outstanding completing 66.5% of his passes for 9.3 yards per pass attempt, 11 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Well, Georgia Tech's defense is allowing opposing QB's to complete only 51.3% of their passes for only 5.9 yards per pass attempt which doesn't bode well for White when he wants to air one out to Darius Reynaud. I have no doubt that White will try some deep throws but if he makes mistakes, he's going to be in big time trouble against a secondary that has four players with 2 or more interceptions this season. The Yellow Jackets also bring a lot of pressure on opposing QB's with their 34 sacks on the year. They have also forced 23 fumbles on the season and have 13 interceptions to brag about. I don't doubt that West Virginia can get some serious yardage in this game but don't think for one minute that this defense is not ready for it. They will want to do whatever it takes to help the new quarterback get comfortable and that includes getting him the ball as much as possible.
My first thought when I saw that Reggie Ball was out was to go and pound West Virginia with all I had before they moved the line up. However, I sat there for a few minutes and thought about this and it just doesn't make sense at all. Of course the books want us all over the Mountaineers because they have demolished opponents by some 20+ points in most games, their defense is pretty damn good and Georgia Tech is without their starting QB of the last three years. Well...that's the trick and I hope not many have fallen for it. Losing Reggie Ball was probably the best thing that could happen to this team and I say that because Ball was fading fast, he was losing all of us money when we bet on the Jackets and he made way too many mistakes. Bennett comes into a great situation here because Chan Gailey is out there looking for his quarterback of the future and Bennett is right there in front of his eyes. The perception is that this should be a blowout but it won't be and I think Georgia Tech, after being completely embarassed by Utah last year, will be ready for this game and might even take things on the MoneyLine.
Trend of the Game: West Virginia is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games versus the ACC Conference.
Georgia Tech 24, West Virginia 23
Capital One Bowl
Wisconsin Badgers +2.5 (10 Units)
I will be the first one to bash the Big 10 when it comes to the strength of their Conference but there are a few teams that I still have huge amounts of respect for in that Conference and they have proven to be cash money in the past. Wisconsin is one of those teams that flew under the radar in Big 10 play because the big boys Michigan and Ohio State took up most of the media coverage time. Did you all know that Wisconsin is 11-1 on the year with their only loss coming to Michigan? Did you also know that they have been one of the most profitable teams from a betting standpoint of view? The Badgers are 8-2-1 ATS this season and have brought me home some bacon on about 3-4 occasions. I always said to myself that if they make it to a Bowl Game and oddsmakers still don't show them respect by slapping them with a dog tag, I would be pounding the Badgers to the bank. Bret Bielema has done a great job with this team and although he has not bowl game experience, Bielema knows how to get his guys fired up. Both the Seniors and the newcomers all get along very well and although their schedule was as weak as it gets, Wisconsin still managed to win their game big and cover whatever spread Vegas would throw at them. The Badgers come into this game averaging 30.2 points per game on the season and they have done that by averaging 388.6 total yards of offense and 5.8 yards per play. Arkansas' defense is allowing 18.4 points per game this season but they have allowed 307.2 total yards per game on 4.8 yards per play. Alright...to the ground game we go where freshman RB PJ Hill turned out to be the biggest surprise of the Big 10 all season. Hill rushed for 1533 total yards this season, had 15 touchdowns and continued the great string of good running backs that come out of the Univeristy of Wisconsin. The Badgers average 176.7 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry this season and Arkansas is allowing 123.8 rushing yards per game this season on 3.7 yards per carry. I cannot stress how important it is for Wisconsin to stick to the run as much as possible in this game because the air attack will take some time to get going. QB John Stocco is playing in his last game as a Badger so this means a little bit more to him. However, his receiving corps is as young as it gets in the Country and having not played since November 18 might have them a little shaky, dropping balls or running bad routes. That is why the passing game has to gradually be brought in. Stocco completed 61.5% of his passes this season for 8.5 yards per pass attempt, 15 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. He has been sacked only 15 times but the team does have an issue with fumbles. Fortunately, Arkansas defense has recovered only 4 fumbles all season and they don't have many guys who go for the ball only. Arkansas has done a great job defensively this year and opponents have completed only 50.4% of their passes this season for only 6.0 yards per pass attempt. That's impressive and all but if Bret Bielema is smart, he will stick to the running game no matter what the score even if he has to run on all three downs. The objective is to open things up in the air and make sure Stocco is rust free and on the same page as his receivers.
The Arkansas Razorbacks were another one of those teams where back in November, everyone was wondering if they could somehow shock the Nation and make it back to the National Title Game. I mean apart from their season opening 50-14 ass whooping loss to USC, the Razorbacks made it all the way to November 24 without losing another game and that includes huge wins against Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina and Tennessee. However, LSU was another train wreck the Razorbacks could not avoid and they ended up losing that game 31-26 in Little Rock, a game that virtually ended any hopes Arkansas had of playing for the National Title. It's too bad because a lot of things happened in the ensuing weekend and only God knows where Arkansas would be today had they beat LSU that November afternoon. The Razorbacks lost the SEC Championship Game to Florida 38-28 and that was their third straight ATS loss and second straight loss to an SEC opponent. Apart from a few ATS wins here and a few ATS wins there, Arkansas was only 4-7-1 ATS on the year and if the motivation is not there for them, we'll probably know it right away. Arkansas comes into this Bowl Game averaging 30.0 points per game this season and they have done it by averaging 378.8 total yards per game and 6.4 yards per play. However, Wisconsin's defense is allowing only 11.9 points per game, they returned a whopping 9 starters on defense this season and they have held opponents to 245.3 total yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play this season. Wow! On the ground, future Heisman Trophy winner or runner-up RB Darren McFadden is as stud as they get in college football and his backup Felix Jones is just as good but in a different way. Regardless, the key will be for Arkansas to bust through a Wisconsin team that has allowed only 106.8 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry this season. What I do know is that Wisconsin has some very quick LB's and that alone will force Arkansas to at some point throw the ball. In the air, QB Casey Dick is getting the start in this game as he has completed only 50.5% of his passes this season for 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 9 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Not good but not that bad. Wisconsin's defense is going to have to pressure the middle to stop both the run and Dick from getting setup. The Badgers are allowing opponents to complete an NCAA low 47.9% passes per game and they have held those opponents to only 4.7 yards per pass attempt. Now that's incredible. The Badgers also have 28 sacks on the year, 14 interceptions and 20 forced fumbles. Both teams are very good and solid first half teams so this one could turn into much more of a shootout than you think. Regardless of that, Arkansas had their nice run earlier this season but the missing out on the BCS game and the BCS in general has them a little distracted and it's time to cash in on my #1 moneymake this season in the Wisconsin Badgers. PJ Hill will have power yards while McFadden will have total yards...who wins the battle?
It's really not easy for me to go with another Big 10 team over another SEC team (it will be my second today) but I am left with no choice. Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State are the only four legit and historic programs with any kind of hope in that conference. Bowl games mean a lot to these programs for pride reasons and for anyone who says that all SEC teams could come into the Bowl Season and sweep the board, now that's just absurd. Playing in this Bowl Game is not what Arkansas had in mind and this come into this thing having lost to two very big and proud conference rivals. I have a feeling the biterness from missing out on the BCS is still very fresh with the Razorback players and coaches and the Capital One Bowl is definitely not where they wanted to be. It's going to be easy to underestimate Wisconsin in this game because they have not made enough this season but if the Razorbacks don't feel like tackling PJ Hill and if they don't feel like getting physical on his ass from the opening kickoff, Wisconsin is going to come in here and raise some big time hell while sending Arkansas off with a third straight loss.
Trend of the Game: Wisconsin is 8-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference games.
Wisconsin 27, Arkansas 21
Rose Bowl
USC Trojans +1 (100 Units)
The Michigan Wolverines are a good team and make no mistake about that but...the BCS...the Rose Bowl...the Wolverines? Cmon now...I mean if you put a team like Houston in the Big 10, they would probably end up in the BCS as well after a few years. The Big 10 is as pathetic as it gets these days and although Iowa looked good against Texas (or was it that Texas looked bad?), Purdue looked like absolute trash. Let's breakdown the Michigan games this season in order to see how they have performed in different situations. For whatever reason, Lloyd Carr doesn't know how to pull away in games and that is the main reason he could not beat the Buckeyes and that will always be the reason why the last two Bowl Games Carr has coached in have been decided by a grand total of five points. The only big win Michigan has this year was when they went to Notre Dame and spanked the irish and pretty much shocking everyone in the world of college football. However, Notre Dame is not the Notre Dame of old and after compiling some more numbers, the Irish are not in my TOP 20 teams. So much for that. Beating Penn State by only 7 points is nice but not great. Beating Iowa by only 14 points is pathetic. Beating Northwestern by only 14 points is unacceptable and so is barely beating Ball State. Anyways, Michigan is averaging 30.2 points per game this season and they have done it on 374.9 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play. USC's plays in the high scoring PAC 10 and they have allowed only 14.9 points per game this season on 293.8 total yards per game and 4.6 yards per play. Okay, so they key to the game is RB Mike Hart right? Maybe so. Hart and the Wolverines running attack are the heart and soul of this offense and they average 189.2 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry. USC's defense is allowing 97.7 rushing yards per game on only 3.2 yards per carry. Not bad but the Trojans need to lock up the middle while making sure they don't get burned deep. In the air, QB Chad Henne is completing 61.7% of his passes for 7.7 yards per pass attempt with 20 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. USC's defense is allowing opposing QB's to complete 53.7% of thier passes for only 6.0 yards per pass attempt but it is imperative that USC's DB's play some rough football against these speedy Michigan receivers. If you're not going to be physical with them all night long, they can easily burn you. We all know Chad Henne is going to be looking for Manningham and Breaston on the deep ball but don't think for one second that Pete Caroll is going to forget about pressuring Henne who has been sacked 18 times. Get some pressure on him. USC's defense is loaded with talent and I mean loaded. In the end, it will be their big play capability that will determine the outcome of this game. Henne does not throw many interceptions and the Wolverins rarely fumble the ball so this one is on the Trojans defense to try and get something going for the offense. The Trojans have 28 sacks on the year and like I mentioned before, let the Wolverins beat you on the ground if they want but don't allow the big 20+ yard plays like Ohio State did. I don't think Michigan has enough juice to keep up an entire game with the physicality of the USC players in this game. It's going to be rough and tough and in the end, some unusual Michigan turnovers will be the difference in what should be a classic.
USC should be playing in the BCS Championship Game because you and me both know how much better they matchup with the Buckeyes and how much better they would have been. However, this is their own fault for not being there. All they had to do was beat UCLA in their season finale and the matchup was set but just like the Denver Broncos today in the NFL, the Trojans blew it big time and were caught off guards...something Pete Caroll was really not pleased about. It's always nice to be the winningest program the last three years combined but it's not nice to know that you came out of that with only one National Title. This is still virtually a young Trojans team and there is no reason for them not to be excited as hell about playing in the state of California where all their families and friends can come watch them play in the Rose Bowl. We all remember that disastrous loss to Texas in the BCS Championship game last year and that probably still bothers Pete Caroll to this day. The Trojans lost two games this season to Oregon State and UCLA. It is much easier to lose games like that in the Big 10 because 85% of the teams are not competitive while the PAC 10 teams mostly all have some fight in them. The Trojans weren't big moneymakers earlier this season but they finished the year on a 4-1 ATS run that saw them pound the crap out of Oregon, Notre Dame and California and those were probably their most impressive wins of the season. The Trojans average 30.3 points per game this season and they have done it by averaging 387.9 total yards of offense and 5.9 yards per play. Michigan, as well know, has stout defense but dare I say it again? IT'S THE BIG 10 for crying out loud. They allow only 14.6 points per game this season on 254.1 total yards and 4.2 yards per play. On the ground, it's time for someone to have a breakout game. Whether it be Emmanuel Moody or CJ Gable...someone has to do it. Michigan allows only 43.0 rushing yards per game on 1.9 yards per carry this season but the master of trickery himself Pete Caroll will surely pull out his magic wand in this game to loosen up the run defense. In the air, QB John David Booty has done a great job replacing superstat Matt Leinart. He is completing 61.9% of his passes for 7.6 yards per pass attempt this season with 25 touchdown passes and only 9 interceptions. The Wolverines are going to bring the house on Booty sometimes in this game and sacks are not the end of the world. Sure Michigan allows only 53.0% of passes to be completed against them for 5.7 yards per pass attempt but...its the BIG 10. WR's Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett are both TOP 5 receivers in the Nation. If Booty can have some time to throw the ball, I have no doubt in my mind that both Smith and Jarrett are going to have no problems beating the Michigan secondary on the deep ball. Nobody can mess with Jarrett and I mean nobody. He is very underrated and with any kind of time, Booty will find him deep in the endzone. I just love the matchups on all fronts for this game and now it's time to let the party start and let's get some money!
Here it is. My largest wager of the Bowl Season and although my 100 unit plays have not hit at a high rate this season, it's time to finally cash in big one a play I have been waiting to pound on for quite some time. Here's the deal with this game and I know I am going to catch a bunch of heat for this. Anyone, fan or not fan, who watched Michigan-Ohio State at the end of the season knows that Ohio State dominated most of that game but the score was much closer than it really should have been were it not for a few uncharacteristic mistakes by the Buckeyes. I'll be brutally honest when I say that Michigan is not a top 5 team in my mind. They have been up against very weak Big 10 opponents and sure it looks nice and all to kill Northwestern or Indiana but too many times opposing teams kept the game close against the Wolverines who were DD favorites. I just don't see them matching up well at all with USC. The Trojans are the only team who could have given Ohio State a run for the Title and probably beat them. Michigan has been beating up on piece of trash Big 10 opponents all year. USC's receivers are just as good and probably better overall than Ohio State's so making big plays should not be a problem for USC. The Trojans are most definitely not losing two straight Bowl Games in the Rose Bowl and Pete Caroll will once again show us why he is probably the best coach in College Football. How quickly we all forget that Lloyd Carr's ass was on the hotseat before this season began. GO TROJANS!
Trend of the Game: Michigan is 0-6 ATS in their last six versus the PAC 10 Conference.
USC 26, Michigan 23
Fiesta Bowl
Boise State Broncos +7 (10 Units)
The Boise State Broncos did it once again ladies and gentlemen, they ran the table to the bottom and are now sitting pretty at 12-0 on the year with nowhere to go but the BCS Bowl games. Incredible. I just can't believe that with all the coaching changes and all, Boise State was capable of maintaining all levels of focus and effectivness. Boise State is not going to be playing on their SMURF TURF for this game so that could be an immediate concern but they have proven more than once now that they can compete on the road and win games away from that field. This season they went 6-0 on the road with their most impressive wins coming against Wyoming, Utah and Nevada...who they beat by a combined 71 points total. I don't think Oklahoma knows what they are in for against this offense and I don't think they realize that the Broncos have made it this far for a very good reason. Boise State was not the best ATS team to bet on this year but what I have always taken note of is when the oddsmakers disrespect the team and make them underdogs. Since 1999, Boise State is now 10-5-2 ATS as underdogs and since they have not won a game against a ranked opponent since their 2001 35-30 win over the Fresno State Bulldogs, I would say Boise State is going to want to win this game badly. The Broncos have a lot to prove and they are averaging 39.4 points per game this season and they have done that on 424.3 total yards of offense and 6.4 yards per play. Oklahoma's defense has always been good, it will always be good and it is currently very good. They are allowing 15.3 points per game on 280.2 total yards per game and only 4.6 yards per play. This won't be easy for Boise State because they are at a disadvantage at several key positions. However, the Broncos have one of the best RB's in the Country in Ian Johnson. He has rushed for 1613 total yards on the season for 6.4 yards per carry and a whopping 24 rushing touchdowns. Oklahoma's D-Line is as solid as they get as they allow 97.8 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry. I still think Johnson is nifty enough to make some big plays in this game. In the air, QB Jared Zabransky is completing 66.4% of his passes for 9.0 yards per pass attempt, 20 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Oklahoma is a tough team to beat in the passing game because of their great coverage schemes as they allow only 5.9 yards per pass attempt and opponents have completed only 50.7% of their passes against them. This is going to have to be a creative gameplan from Boise State. Drisan James and Legenu Naanee have to be used in this offense and the Broncos have to be ready to play some smashmouth football. If they come out here and look to dipsy doodle here and there, that won't work on this defense. Boise is averaging almost 25 points per 1st half this season and a quick start is a must against this great Oklahoma defense.
The Oklahoma Sooners would love nothing more than to have drawn someone else other than Boise State in this game and I say that for a few reasons. Seeing that Boise State is looking for the big win in terms of the football program, they are going to give it everything they have in this game and they are going to try some tactics at all expenses. Also, Oklahoma definitely does not want to be the team that finally lost to Boise State outside of the minnow Bowl Games. As much as well respect and think Boise State is a very good programs, losing to them would not be a good things for a team like Oklahoma because reputation is everything and you just don't lose to teams from the WAC or the other much weaker conferences. Oklahoma had an up and down year and I say that because they had all the talent and potential in the world to make it to the BCS Championship game but things went sour in a hurry when starting QB Brett Bhomar was kicked off the team and WR Paul Thompson was named the starter. Then came the screwjob loss to Oregon and by the time the Red River Shootout came around, Oklahoma was still reeling from that cheap ass loss and Adrian Peterson was going to be lost for the year a few weeks later. It's tough to think that those were the only two games this team lost because had it not been for the Oregon debacle, the Sooners would be playing for a National Title instead of the Gators. Oklahoma comes into this game averaging 29.4 points per game this season on 365.8 on 5.78 yards per play. Boise State is allowing only 15.6 points per game this season and they have done it by allowing 273.8 total yards of offense and 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, Heeeeeeeeeeee's BACK! Or is he? I think Peterson is playing but regardless, doesn't change my pick. If Peterson is good to go, he'll be rusty and he'll probably get tired. Boise State is tough up front and they allow only 82.3 rushing yards per game on only 3.1 yards per carry. Peterson or Allen Patrick...won't matter who it is. In the air, QB Paul Thompson has done a fine job completing 60.9% of his passes for 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 20 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Boise State is allowing opposing QB's to complete only 56.9% of their passes for only 6.3 yards per pass attempt. The Broncos have 31 sacks on the year and it's time to really go after a QB like Thompson playing in his first Bowl Game. The defense also has 17 inteceptions and if Thompson can be pressured enough in this game, the long passes to Malcoml Kelly won't be possible and this offense is going to stall. Oklahoma just cannot hold on to the ball as they have fumbled 33 times this season and lost a whopping 21 of those fumbles. That should be good because Boise State's defensive efforts as important as it gets in this game and they cannot let Peterson run loose all over the place. Paul Thompson has shown several times this season that he can move out of the pocket and scramble up field with his feet so wrapping up and making tackles is just too important. As long as the Broncos can get a few stops on defense, they should score enough to keep this close and they might even win this game straight up. I really have had fun betting on Oklahoma this season but the good times are done and it's time to fade them.
This is definitely a bettor's worst nightmare. Who the hell do you trust in this game anways? Do you trust that Boise State's offense is so powerful that they can do just about anything they want against any defense in the Country or do you side with the always solid defense of Stoops and his Sooners? The line opened at -8 and has since taken a dip to -7. I trust Boise State's offense a heck of a lot more than this very solid defense but I also think that emotions are going to be running extremely high in this game. Boise State needs a program changing or satisfying win against a big name ranked program and they have yet to get that since I have followed college football. Many experts say other teams should be in the BCS and not teams like Boise State but I think that this kind of criticism can only be good for the Broncos. Motivation is huge, this is a BCS Bowl Game and although Oklahoma could probably kill these guys, I think Zabranksy leaves the college scene with a bang.
Trend of the Game: Boise State is 4-1 ATS in their last five Bowl games.
Boise State 33, Oklahoma 30
:cheers:
