MistaFlava's CFB Week 9 ***Power Selections*** (Writeups and Analysis)


2006 CFB Record: 53-36-2 (+20.40 Units)
2006 CFB ATS Record: 43-28-2 ATS (+18.20 Units)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 10-7 (+2.20 Units)

PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 4-4 (-2.00 units)
PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 4-0 (+50.00 Units)
PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 0-1 (-55.00 Units)

37-14-2 ATS (73%) in Football the last four weeks

I am coming off a huge 20 unit win on Thursday's Virginia Tech win and coming off a huge 10 unit on my UTEP play last night. I am taking a different approach to the games this week because the lines are getting sharp and it's now a question of finding the bogus lines and pounding the crap out of them. Good Luck guys!


Saturday, October 28

Purdue Boilermakers +3 (10 Units)

Alright...so why would I pick this game out of all the early games? Well it's quite clear and simple...the line is wrong. Sure Penn State deserves to be favored in this game for the simple fact that oddsmakers don't know which team is worse than the other but considering what both teams did last week, I was expecting the Boilermakers to be sucking the three points this week but it went the other way. Penn State is in a re-building year with only 9 starters back from the team that went an impressive 11-1 and then won in the Orange Bowl against FSU. Well that team is gone and Paterno's guys have struggle to find any kind of rythm this year. They are 5-3 coming into this game and are obviously heading to another Bowl Game. What I can't seem to understand though is why a team like Penn State who's only road win came on a bad penalty call and a missed extra point in Minnesota, would be favored in this game. It looks easy to take Penn State but the betting public is taking the Penn State of years past and they are no longer the flavor of the month. The Nittany Lions are 0-2-1 ATS on the road this season and they have done nothing to show me that they can compete in the Big 10 at a high level. The Nitts average only 17.0 points per road game this season on 354.0 total yards and 5.0 yards per play. Purdue's defense is atrocious allowing almost 30 points at home and 5.7 yards per play but it's not like Penn State can take advantage of this. On the ground, the Nitts are averaging a pathetic 58.0 rushing yards per game on 2.0 yards per carry in their last three which is bad because Purdue's line is allowing well over 200 rushing yards per game in the last three. Mind you, Wisconsin had a superstar rusher, Penn State does not. In the air, QB Anthony Morelli is good to go and is completing 59.4% of his passes on the road for 6.1 yards per pass attempt. However, he has thrown 5 interceptions on the road (only 1 at home) and has been sacked 6 times on the road. Purdue's secondary is young and they are full of holes but they do make some big plays and have 7 interceptions at home and a whopping 15 sacks in Ross-Ade Stadium. The secondary allows big plays but Morelli is going to feel the pressure big time today and seeing that he looked very hesitant last week (following the huge hit the week before), I think Morelli is going to have a nightmare of a game. Sure the Nittany Lions and Paterno have been succesful in West Lafayette but that was with good teams and this team is not that good.

The Purdue Boilermakers goal is to finish #3 or #4 in the Big 10 which is still very possible. Before I get into more information about this team, we all remember the matchup in State College where the Nitts demolished Purdue 33-15. Well looking back on that, losing by 16 points to a team that went to a BCS Bowl game was nothing bad at all, specially considering that the game was on the road. The last time Paterno and his guys were here, Penn State came to this house with about the same caliber team as they have now and got spanked 28-14, mind you Purdue had a much better team but you know what I mean. The Boilermakers have the firepower to win this game big regardless of how good Penn State's defense is. Sure they are coming off a very tough home loss to Wisconsin 24-3 last week but it's not like the plays were not there for the taking. The timing between receiver and QB was way off and the Boilermakers worked very hard on timing and speed in practice this week which means we should see some drastic changes. Joe Tiller is in his 10th season as Purdue coach and he has been a home underdog only 9 times. He is 6-3 ATS in those games and seeing that the home doggie loss to Wisconsin last week was his first since 1999 as a home dog, I don't see Tiller losing another one. Believe it or not, his only two other home dog loses in 10 years were both against Penn State. Well, time to avenge that baby. The Boilermakers average 33.2 points per game at home this season on 426.4 total yards and 6.6 yards per play. Penn State's defense is always solid but their ineffectiveness on offense makes the defense allow 33.0 points per game on the road on 355.0 total yards and 5.5 yards per play. On the ground, RB Jaycen Taylor has big day potential as the rushing attack averages 151.0 rushing yards per home game on 5.0 yards per carry while Penn State have some active LB's who can shut things down. However, having seen tough LB play last week against Wisconsin, this should be nothing new for the Purdue offense. In the air, QB Curtis Painter was disappointed after last weeks loss but he will only come back stronger. He is completing 61.3% of his passes at home for a whopping 8.0 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown a lot of interceptions (1.2 per home game) but has a great offensive line who have allowed only 5 sacks at home. Penn State's secondary has been torched for 8.0 yards per pass attempt on the road this season and their road opponent QB's are completing 66.0% of their passes. Seeing that Penn State's secondary is young and inexperienced and have only 2 interceptions away from home, this could be a huge day for Painter if his timing is on and if he can have enough time to get rid of the ball. As long as Purdue can get to Morelli early and possibly come out with some big time momentum building drives, I don't see how they can lose this game.

Trend of the Game: Purdue is 6-3 ATS as home underdogs with Joe Tiller as head coach.

Purdue 35, Penn State 25

Miami Hurricanes +4.5 (50 Units) ***UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE YEAR***

The Miami Hurricanes are back. No I'm serious...all they're guys are back from the Brawl suspensions and as much as most of you want to believe that the Hurricanes are going to go back to their thug ways and put up another pathetic performance for Coker...forget about it. What I noticed after the nasty brawl incident is that the University of Miami stuck up for it's players no matter how bad the tape looked and that should have the returning starters all fired up for this huge and I mean huge ACC encounter. No matter what happens down the road, the Hurricanes need to win this game to have a shot at being in the ACC Title game once all is said and done. Now wouldn't that be something if they could skip away from all the criticism and get a sweet road win here to setup an incredible matchup with the Hokies next weekend? Miami looked pathetic at Duke last week, almost losing the game but who can blame them with all the suspensions. Who would want to play against Duke to begin with? I can't recall a single game this season where the Hurricanes looked good which means they are seriously underachieving and we may see a side of this Canes team we have not seen all season, at any given point. In his 6 years of coaching the Canes, Coker is 4-1 ATS as a road underdog with the only loss coming against Louisville earlier this season. All I can say is that Miami's season begins today and the Canes better be ready. In their last three games, the Canes are averaging 27.3 points per game on 310.7 total yards per game and 5.2 yards per play. Georgia Tech's defense is allowing a whopping 27.0 points per game in their last three games on 361.3 total yards and 5.6 yards per play. On the ground, the Canes are averaging only 88.5 rushing yards per game in the last three but freshman RB Javarris James has explosive speed and is due against a GT defense that allows a whopping 4.5 yards per carry the last three games. In the air, QB Kyle Wright will have to be good to win. He is completing 60.2% of his passes over the last three games for 7.2 yards per pass attempt and only one interception. He has been sacked only 4 times the last three games which is good because GT's pass rush is ferocious. The Yellow Jackets don't allow many completions but they do allow a rather high 6.7 yards per pass attempt the last three games and are not a team that makes big plays on defense like they were earlier this season. You can bet your bottom dollar the Canes remember last year's home loss to GTech and now it's revenge time baby!

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are in primetime possession of the ACC Coastal Division lead which kind of scares me because I don't want a team like this to make it to the ACC Title Game. The Jackets are 5-2 on the season and 3-3 ATS but let me tell you that this is the most dangerous game on their schedule. I say that because Miami is going to be jacked up, fresh and relaxed with all their players back from suspension and eager to make an apologetic statement on field. I mean we are talking about the same Georgia Tech team that has been horrendous as of late, almost losing at home against Maryland three weeks ago (allowing 23 points to Maryland at home is a no-no, doesn't matter what team you are) and how about last Sunday's 31-7 loss at Clemson? That one must of hurt because the Jackets did everything wrong and the loss was still stinging this week in practice. Making things a lot worst for the home team is that Miami is intimidating and Miami has a lot more to play for in the sense that their reputation is in question, their coach is in question and they are one hell of a team under Coker when pegged as underdogs. Did you all know that Reggie Ball can't play against Miami? I'll explain later. The Jackets average 24.0 points per game in their last three on 306.7 total yards and 5.0 yards per play. However, Miami's defense is still TOP 10 in the Country and they are allowing only 7.3 points per game in their last three on 246.0 total yards of offense and only 3.9 yards per play. On the ground, the Jackets average a decent 4.0 yards per carry in their last three games but Miami's run defense is solid as nails allowing only 2.1 yards per carry on 60.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games. That means Reggie Ball is going to have to throw the ball a lot and that's bad news. In his only two games against Miami, he is averaging only 113.5 passing yards per game, completing only 34.5% of his passes and has 0 touchdowns to 3 interceptions. The Jackets are screwed big time in this game. Ball is completing only 50.0% of his passes the last three games for 6.7 yards per pass attempt and has thrown 3 interceptions in those games. Miami's secondary gets a bunch of fresh legs for this game and they are allowing their last three opponent QB's to complete only 45.1% of their passes for only 5.5 yards per pass attempt. The Hurricanes have 8 interceptions in their last three games and Reggie Ball is going to get massacred in half here. I also like the fact that Miami has forced 8 fumbles the last three games because once the turnovers start going their way in this game, the offense is going to easily click on the short field and win this game big for the U.

Trend of the Game: The Hurricanes are 4-1 ATS as road underdogs the last six years under coach Larry Coker.

Miami 24, Georgia Tech 10

UCLA Bruins -1.5 (10 Units)

The Washington State Cougars are one win away from being a TOP 25 team if you ask me but how gas do they have left in their tanks? Something tells me that it's not much and I say that because they are coming off some tough ass games against USC, Oregon State, Cal and Oregon last weekend. The Cougars are definitely one of the top teams in the PAC 10 season and they are on a mission to show that they are going to be big time competitors in this conference for years to come. Bill Doba's group has been as impressive as it get and their #6 toughest schedule in the Country makes what they have done all that more impressive. Apart from the season opening 40-14 loss at Auburn, the Cougars have since beat Stanford and Oregon State on the road but like I mentioned before, they gave it their all to beat USC on Sept.30 without success, then beat the Beavers in a huge effort, then played in their homecoming special at home as 9.5 point underdogs but got crushed by Cal and then went to Oregon last week and pulled off the huge upset of the year in the PAC 10 Conference. Can the Cougars keep the intensity and beat the Bruins on homecoming week? Washington State is averaging only 21.0 points per game on the road this season for 365.7 total yards and 5.1 yards per play. However, UCLA's defense has been kick ass at home this year (yeah im aware of their shitty opponents) and they are allowing only 8.3 points per home game on only 214.8 total yards and 3.6 yards per play. On the ground, Washington State are averaging only 3.9 yards per carry on the road while UCLA allow only 1.8 yards per carry in the Rose Bowl this season. In the air, QB Alex Brink is a guy I would only bet on at home. He is completing 57.0% of his passes on the road for 6.5 yards per pass attempt but has been sacked 11 times in three road games. UCLA's defense is very solid this season for some reason and they average 3.5 sacks per home game (14 sacks at home) and opposing road QB's are completing only 49.2% of their passes against the Bruins for only 5.4 yards per pass attempt. UCLA's secondary also has 6 interceptions at home and they will constantly be trying to knock the ball loose against a Washington State team that turns the rock over 1.3 times per road games and fumbles 2.7 times per road game. This is a game the Cougars can win but it's homecoming for UCLA and they will be eager to win after the shocking loss to Notre Dame last week. Letdown spot here before they play Arizona, Arizona State and Washington to close out their season.

The UCLA Bruins were pegged to be PAC 10 Conference basement dwellers before the season started. Sure they are an impressive 4-3 on the season and 4-3 ATS but what has been more impressive is their ability to cover the spread at home under Karl Dorrell. The UCLA coach has his team 3-1 ATS this season when favored in the Rose Bowl and since he came here in 2003, the Bruins are 12-6-2 ATS as home favorites which goes a long way into showing how he has his guys prepared for big home games. Alright...Washington State have won the last two times they played here and Dorrell made it clear all week that the Bruins need to put an end to this madness. Sure they managed to beat the Cougars in overtime on the road last year but that's not good enough because Dorrell is a believer in the saying 'WE MUST PROTECT THIS HOUSE'. Since Dorrell was hired, the Bruins are also 18-4 straight up at home which is quite impressive despited the Bruins not making much noise in the Conference. Anyways. The loss to Notre Dame last week was a shocker for all and I say that because UCLA had the game in the bag but they blew it and Brady Quinn pulled off another crazy win in South Bend. Dorrell knows what a loss like that did for Michigan State and he has stressed that the same not happen to his team this week or the next. With some tough games coming up, Dorrell knows this is a must win. The Bruins are averaging 28.8 points per home game this season on 376.8 total yards per game and 5.5 yards per play. Washington State's defense is tough as nails and they allow only 18.7 points per road game on only 322.0 total yards and 5.3 yards per play. On the ground, RB Chris Markey has rushed for 600+ yards but been rewarded with only one touchdown. The Bruins average 153.8 rushing yards per home game on 4.1 yards per carry but are up against a Wazzou defense allowing only 3.7 yards per carry on the road. QB Ben Olson should be back for this game after having missed the last two games with an injury. He is completing 65.7% of his passes at home this season for 7.1 yards per pass attempt while being sacked only 5 times and throwing only 3 interceptions. Olson might be out of rythm early but look for his to find his groove and expose a Wazzou secondary that allow 7.4 yards per pass attempt on the road this season but that has a relentless pass rush. As long as Olson has time to throw which he should, the Wazzou secondary doesn't have any big playmakers and turnovers will be the difference. Both teams have had fumble problems but I like UCLA to control this game on defense and take advantage of a few costly turnovers to win this game.

Trend of the Game: UCLA is 18-4 straight up at home since the arrival of Karl Dorrell in 2003.

UCLA 22, Washington State 6

***Depending on the outcome of the first two games, I will be posting a big play for the Hawaii Midnight game.

Good Luck to all!

Good luck this week man.....no way you can lose 2 weeks in a row on your big ACC plays, and I hope you're right....I've got a 4 team all underdog ml's riding on Miami ML....5 to win 300 so it'd be huge....jus wish I put more on it :-\
GL Flava.......J/C...does your record include the 50 (55 w/ juice) unit loss on FSU last week?

If you look at the Plays of the year at the top, it says -55 units, Im sure that is included in the record.

Flava--Im on Purdue and the U as well. GL!
I was feeling Miami... GT seems tooo easy... don't know how they move the ball though... Miami has trouble against worse defenses here... but let's cash this one.

Whats the play 2-nite....bout to be out for the day.....local has 27.5...bout to hit the potato boys!