MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 CFB Record: 42-40-3 (+68.40 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 42-37-2 (+74.30 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2-1 (-0.40 Units)
COLLEGE GAMEDAY PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 5-1 ATS (+125.00 Units)
Week 1: (No Play)
Week 2: Louisiana State -11
Week 3: USC -9.5
Week 4: Georgia +3.5
Week 5: California +6.5
Week 6: Purdue +7
Week 7: Missouri +12
Week 8: Kentucky +6.5
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. Not the kind of start I was looking for but after observing and watching things play out this past weekend, I think it helped a lot of grow as cappers and Im a big believer in the 'watch and learn' type of theory. The rule changes didn't make much of a difference, well not yet anyways and every single week that goes by brings a new lesson in the world of college football betting. Best of luck to all this week!
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South Florida Bulls -2 (10 Units)
The South Florida football program did not exist just 12 years ago and now they find themselves in a position to play for the National Title Game should they run the table and beat some heavy hitting opponents. Isn't it incredible that on September 6, 1996, the first ever football practice was held for this team and they have built themselves all the way up to this? I know there have been accusations that they accept players who don't have the grades to get into Florida, Miami and Florida State but I don't buy into those things and I think some of the other Florida schools are starting to worry a bit that they have to possibly be concerned with a fourth State of Florida powerhouse program. The Bulls are #2 in the BCS right now and I can't say they don't deserve it. They are coming off a 64-12 win over Central Florida as a -10 and those are the kinds of wins Championship contending programs get under their belts. If that doesn't impress you, how about the 26-23 win over Auburn on the road earlier this season (Auburn is pretty damn good in the end aren't they?) or the 37-10 win over North Carolina or the 21-13 win over West Virginia? They are 4-1 ATS on the year, 6-0 straight up and looking pretty damn good. The Bulls come into this PRIMETIME GAME averaging 35.2 points per game this season and they have done that on 393.5 total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play while facing the 31st toughest schedule in the Nation. Rutgers defense has allowed 17.2 points per game this season against weak opposition and they have also allowed 296.8 total yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play. South Florida is not big on the running game but they do use it efficiently as they average 180.5 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry and are up against a Rutgers defense that is somewhat untested and has allowed 139.2 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry. In the air, QB Matt Grothe has completed 59.1% of his passes this season for 1121 passing yards, 6.6 yards per pass attempt and 7 touchdowns (3 interceptions). Rutgers has been solid against the pass allowing opponents to complete only 52.9% of their passes this season for 5.6 yards per pass attempt. They have a good pass rush that has generated 16 sacks in six games this season but the Bulls offensive line has allowed only 7 sacks all season. The big problem on South Florida this season has been the amount of time they have fumbled (14 fumbles in six games) but Rutgers defense has not been forcing fumbles as they have recoverd only 3 fumbles in six games this season. There is no messing around in this game for the Bulls. They are going to thrive on the performance of their defense and should have no problems scoring 30+ points against a Rutgers team that allowed 24 against Navy, 34 against Maryland and 28 against Cincinnati.
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are coming off an 11-2 season that had everyone running for the season ticket gates but for some reason they have not been the same as last season and it's hard to explain what has gone wrong. Sure they are 4-2 coming into this game and sure they are 3-2 against the spread in those games but they have lost two of their last three games to Maryland and Cincinnati, both at home and they went down 14-0 to Syracuse last week before boucing back and scoring 38 unanswered points to win and cover that game. Now lets go back to Cincinnati and Maryland for a bit. The Bearcats are my #9 ranked team in the Country and they beat Rutgers 28-23. Maryland is my #49 ranked team and they beat Rutgers 34-24. South Florida is my #7 ranked so why should they not come in here and win by at least 5 like those teams just did? I don't know how many of you know this but Rutgers has 20+ players on their roster that hail from the State of Florida and im pretty sure Jim Leavitt (USF head coach) knows a thing or two about some of them having recruited them in the past. So the edge works both ways on that one. Rutgers comes into this game averaging 37.2 points per game this season and they have done it on 489.7 total yards of offense and 7.2 yards per play. However, South Florida is the best defense Rutgers has seen all season by a mile. Not only do they allow only 15.7 points per game and 284.3 total yards of offense on 3.4 yards per play but they have done against one of the 40 toughest schedules in the Nation while Rutgers has played their defense against weak opponents. We all know how much Rutgers relies on their running attack with RB Ray Rice and his 13 touchdowns as they average 182.2 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry. However, South Florida's run defense has been outstanding and they have allowed only 106.3 rushing yards per game on 2.9 yards per carry and are as tested as it gets having faced West Virginia. So the only chance Rutgers has in this one is in the passing game with QB Mike Teel who has completed 62.5% of his passes this season for 1817 passing yards, 10.8 yards per pass attempt, 12 touchdown and 6 interceptions on the year. That's at least one interception per game for Teel who could be in big time trouble against a Bulls defense that has 12 interceptions on the season and that has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 51.5% of their passes this season for 4.7 yards per pass attempt. Teel is used to having deep options open and he is used to making big yardage passes. Well in this one he is going to be under constant pressure against a Bulls pass rush that has 20 sacks in six games and I have noticed in the past that when Teel is forced to shorten his game, he tends to make a lot more mistakes. Rutgers has not fumbled much this season but the Bulls have forced 12 fumbles on the season and I think turnovers by the Scarlet Knights are going to be what decided this game and the spread in the end.
I guess you could call this the most anticipated WEEKDAY game of the college football season so far because it comes fresh off the heels of the first BCS Standings release party and if the season were to end right now, the South Florida Bulls would be playing for the BCS Championship aka the National Title. Not only that, Rutgers has been a very popular public play the last few years because of what they can do so you are sure to have a lot of people on the home underdog in this one. The reason I trust South Florida can pull this game off and prove all nay-sayers wrong is because they have pulled off big upsets and won huge game year in and year out. We are not pulling trigger on them and hoping for a lucky shot because we know what they have done and what they can do. The Bulls come into this game seeking revenge for the very exciting home loss to Rutgers last season and motivation is going to be sky high for many different reasons. South Florida averages 35.2 points per game and Rutgers averages 37.2 points per game. However, the Bulls have faced the 31st toughest schedule in the Nation while Rutgers has faced the 101st toughest schedule in the Nation this season and if you look at the stats based on that, you'll realize that South Florida has really dominated good teams while Rutgers hasn't really been tested and when they have, they have lost at home both times. South Florida is a proven winner, Jim Leavitt is a very good coach who keeps turning down jobs at Miami, Alabama and a bunch of other schools and he has a group of guys who can do some big time things this season. Some experts even picked them as Darkhorse National Title contenders before the season started. South Florida makes another statement tonight. Let me introduce all of you to my little friend...the South Florida defense baby!
Trend of the Game: South Florida is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as the favorite.
South Florida 33, Rutgers 22
Connecticut Huskies +3 (25 Units)
The Lousiville Cardinals are going to continue to attract National attention because of the things they have done the past 2-3 seasons but don't you think that's just wrong considering the way they have played this season and the amount of times you have bet on them and been disappointed? The Cardinals are coming off a rather impressive win by their standards this year as they beat Cincinnati 28-24 on the road as +8 point underdogs but all that is going to do is have a bunch of public bettors back on their side in this one. Make no mistake about it guys, Louisville is not a good football team this year and Steve Kragthorpe is having a very tough time getting a good hold on how things work in the Big East compared to how things work in the Conference USA. I say that because Louisville is still 2-4 ATS on the season and although they have strangely won two of their three road games this season, they are still not worthy of being favored by that many points in this game versus a virtual unknown to the betting public. Louisville has won all three lifetime meetings by at least 20+ points and that is kinda scary for UConn bettors but this Louisville team once again is nothing like that of years past that won nine games in every season since 2003. The Cardinals come into this game averaging 41.7 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging a whopping 559.6 total yards of offense per game on 7.1 yards per play. It would be easy to assume that the Cardinals can just trample over any of their opponents this season but they better be careful against UConn in this one because the Huskies have allowed only 12.1 points per game this season and allowed only 264.2 total yards of offense on 4.1 yards per play in their games. On the ground, the Cardinals have been as dominant as the last four seasons as they average 161.9 rushing yards per game and only 4.5 yards per carry (they averaged at least 4.8 in each of their last four seasons). Connecticut's run defense has really been impressive holding opponents to 99.0 rushing yards per game and only 2.9 yards per carry so they can make things tough for Louisville in this one. QB Brian Brohm is still considered one of the best quarterbacks in the Nation and his numbers don't lie. He has completed 67.5% of his passes this season for 2765 passing yards, 9.3 yards per pass attempt, 23 touchdown passes and only 4 interceptions. Connecticut's pass defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete only 57.5% of their passes for 5.5 yards per pass attempt which should keep the Cardinals in check and should force enough 3rd downs that the Huskies have a chance to make some plays. The Huskies are a very aggressive defense that has 16 sacks in six games this season so getting some pressure on Brohm is always good if you want to attempt to force turnovers. The Huskies also have an impressive 13 interceptions on the season so it could be that one big play that changes the complexion of this game tonight. The Cardinals continue to have all kinds of problems with penalties this season as they average 8.0 penalties per game for 73.0 penalty yards per game. UConn's defense has a chance to make some plays in this one and I think you'll be rather impressed by how aggressive they can be. Their linebackers are very quick and good in coverage so the Cardinals should be worried.
Indiana Hoosiers +7.5 (5 Units)
Purdue Boilermakers -7 (10 Units)
Florida State Seminoles -5 (5 Units)
The Miami Hurricanes are having yet another nightmare of a season and like I predicted before this season started, new head coach Randy Shannon is not meant for this program, he is not meant for this offense and he is not meant to run this team. The Canes have not improved any on last year's 6-6 team that was led into battle by Larry Coker. The Canes are 4-3 on the season (2-5 ATS) and with games coming up against Virgina Tech and Boston College to close out the year, there is a very good chance that this Hurricanes team misses out on a Bowl Game for the first time in who knows how long. So you could call this the biggest game of their season because it will ultimately determine what kind of futility they can either reach or avoid. In their only two road games this season the Hurricanes lost both times, the first time to Oklahoma 51-13 and the second time to North Carolina 33-27. That makes them 0-2 straight up and 0-2 ATS on the road this season. Prior to the last two seasons, Miami had dominated this matchup and won six straight games but they have lost two in a row now including last year's 13-10 loss where they had 21 first downs and Florida State only had 9 first downs. The Hurricanes come into this game today averaging only 23.7 points per game this season and they have done that on 339.1 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play. The Seminoles defense has played well enough to keep them in games this season as they have allowed only 17.0 points per game on the year and allowed only 318.0 total yards of offense and 4.4 yards per play. Miami's running game seems to be working just fine but Randy Shannon has no idea when and how to use it. The Canes average 157.7 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry this season but it's going to be tough to get anything going in this game as Florida State has allowed only 98.2 rushing yards per game this season and allowed only 2.9 yards per carry. Do you really feel comfortable knowing that QB Kyle Wright is going to lead this team into battle today? He has completed 62.1% of his passes this season for 1152 yards, 8.7 yards per pass attempt, 9 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions. Florida State allows a lot of completion as opposing QB's have completed 58.0% of their passes against them but they don't allow big yardage plays and have held teams to 5.8 yards per pass attempt which should pretty much send the Hurricanes to a bunch of three and outs. The Seminoles pass rush has been good this season as they have 15 sacks in six games and should be able to put some pressure on the unsteady Kyle Wright. They also have 7 interceptions this season which is a bit of an underchievement but I expect them to make some big plays in this game. The Seminoles are very tough to play against, they have forced 12 fumbles this season and I think much like the last two years they can hold Miami to 10 points or less and runaway with this thing sometime in the second half.
The Florida State Seminoles have not been a cash money cow for me like they used to be 4-5 years ago but I'll still take my chances in what I think can be a season changing win if they can pull it off here. Bobby Bowden and his boys come into this game with a 4-2 record on the year and despite losing to Clemson on opening night and Wake Forest last week (both on the road), they have looked half decent in Tallahassee and I really think they can put things together for a big win here. The only issue I have with the Seminoles in this game is that their level of competition has been putrid at best at home as they beat UAB and NC State, two teams I don't even think belong in I-A football this season. However they did look pretty damn solid in their game against Alabama in Jacksonville and I actually see that game being quite like this one in the end. The key for this team is going to be to shut down the Canes offense, which shouldn't be too hard and then make sure they keep this game a two score game right up until the fourth quarter. The last six meetings have all been decided by 8 points or less which makes the underdog a good value play but trends don't last forever and seeing how both teams suck, this could be the first blowout game in a long time. The Seminoles come into this game with offensive problems of their own as they average only 22.8 points per game this season and have done that by also averaging 342.7 total yards of offenser per game and 5.2 yards per play. Miami's defense has suffered this season because their offense is so ineffetive. They have allowed an unsual 20.7 points per game and allowed 318.6 total yards of offense on 4.9 yards per play which is still pretty good. Unlike the Canes the Seminoles have not found a consistent ground attack as they average only 108.3 rushing yards per game and only 3.2 yards per carry. That should make it easy for the Canes who have allowed only 133.1 rushing yards per game but only 3.3 yards per carry. In the air, QB Xavier Lee is the man and the more he is trusted the better he is going to get. Lee has completed 56.5% of his passes this season for 764 yards, 8.3 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions (two last game against Wake Forest). However, Miami's pass defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 57.9% of their passes this season for a whopping 7.3 yards per pass attempt. There is you x-factor. Miami gives up way too many deep throws for first downs and Xavier Lee loves throwing for 10+ yards at a time. Lee is a lot more mobile than Weatherford which is good because the Seminoles have allowed 12 sacks on the year and Miami's pass rush is pretty damn good with 22 sacks in seven games. I have been impressed with the way Florida State has held onto the ball this season as they have lost only 5 fumbles all season and have not thrown that many interceptions. I know the Seminoles offense can be as useless as Miami's at times but this is a bit different and I think the Noles are going to open that playbook up a bit and Jimbo Fisher is going to show Randy Shannon a thing or two about playcalling when it counts.
Notre Dame Irish +17 (10 Units)
The Southern California Trojans are having big time problems these days and I'm not sure why. I know the whole Reggie Bush has really impacted some of the uppoer powers of this program because it directly involves a lot of people and a lot is a stake when the committee makes its final decision on the matter. Pete Carroll has been rumored to be gone after this season and now that the Trojans are looking like crap week after week, the wheels could really start to come off the dynasty wagon. USC is coming off a lacklustre 23-10 win over Arizona as a -21 favorite at home last week and that was fresh off the heels of their embarassing loss to Stanford as a -40 point favorite once again at home. So now that this team has pretty much fallen off the BCS map, where do they go from here? They have to fly accross the country and play against a Notre Dame team that is getting hungrier and hungrier by the game. The Trojans are also going to be without Heisman Trophy favorite QB John David Booty unless he somehow recovers in time from his fracture finger. I don't think he will. I know USC has won five straight in this series with four of those games being by 20 points or more but the Trojans just don't look the same this year. They come into this game averaging 34.0 points per game on the season and they have also averaged 430.2 total yards of offense per game and 5.8 yards per play. Notre Dame's defense has played pretty damn well all season and despite allowing 28.4 points per game (mainly because of their offense), they have allowed only 360.0 total yards of offense per game and allowed only 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, USC continues to run laps around opponents as they average 199.8 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry but they have slowed down a bit as of late. Notre Dame has allowed 186.7 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry so as long as USC doesn't run all over them they will be fine. The Trojans will turn once again to QB Mark Sanchez who made his debut last week and now has completed 61.8% of his passes this season for 153 yards, only 4.5 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions. Not good and not worthy of this many points on the road. Notre Dame's pass defense is ranked #12 in the Country as they have allowed opposing QB's to complete only 52.9% of their passes this season for only 5.8 yards per pass attempt. That should slow the game down big time. USC has had a problem with interceptions thrown all season as their QB's have thrown 12 interceptions (compared to only 10 all of last season) and Notre Dame has 9 interceptions on the season so I think they can make a few big plays in this one. The Irish have also forced 12 fumbles on the year and they play aggressive enough to get their offense some good field position once in a while. I think USC struggles once again this week.
Kentucky Wildcats +6.5 (50 Units)
Texas Tech Raiders +3.5 (5 Units)
The Texas Tech Red Raiders cost me some cash last week and not because I bet on them...because I bet against them like an idiot. Well I am not making that same mistake this week as they stroll into Columbia and take on the big bad Tigers. Texas Tech runs one of the most high powered offenses in the Country and despite returning only 10 combined starters on offense and defense from last year, they have done quite the job this season. The knock on this team has always been that they can't play on the road but I don't really see how that can be as they are 19-22 straight up away from home the last seven seasons and 20-21 ATS in those games so a 50% winning percentage and spread cover is not too bad at all. The big question mark for this Red Raiders team has been their strength of schedule. Sure they are 6-1 straight up on the year and an impressive 4-2 ATS (including 2-1 ATS on the road) but they are ranked only #119 in strength of schedule which means that this is their biggest test of the season. The odds are stacked against Mike Leach and his guys because they are young, inexperienced and have not been succesful in Columbia or against the Tigers. I still think they can make a game out of this and take a shot at the Big 12 South (as crazy as it sounds). The Red Raiders come into this game averaging 50.0 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 580.6 total yards of offense per game and 7.5 yards per play on the year. Wow! Missouri's defense is good but they have allowed 24.5 points per game this season and allowed 403.2 total yards of offense per game on 5.2 yards per play which could be a problem. On the ground, the Red Raiders have not cared much to run the ball as they average 22.6 attempts per game, 80.1 rushing yards and 3.6 yards per carry. Missouri is tough against the run as they have allowed 137.8 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry. Well none of that matters when you have QB Graham Harrell who has been outstanding and who has completed 74.4% of his passes this season for a whopping 3151 passing yards, 9.1 yards per pass attempt, 31 touchdown passes and only 3 interceptions. WOW! He is up against a Missouri secondary that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 61.8% of their passes this season for 6.7 yards per pass attempt. Harell has outstanding pocket presence, has great protection from his line and should have no problems carving big time holes into this Missouri pass defense that ranks 101st in the Nation. The only issue I have with the Red Raiders is the 9.1 penatlies per game they take but Leach knows what he is doing and I think he has his boys ready to rock n roll.
Ohio State Buckeyes -17.5 (10 Units)
The Michigan State Spartans looked pretty damn good four games in this season as they were 4-0 straight up with new head coach Mark Dantonio, life was beautiful and some East Landsin faithful were already calling this a succesful season. However, things went a bit bad after that 4-0 start as the Spartans lost to Wisconsin on the road and then returned home and lost to a Big 10 minnow Northwestern. I was impressed by the way they bounced back last week crushing Indiana 52-27 but I don't know that they can go on the road and play as well as they have at times this season. Mark Dantonio makes yet another return to The Ohio State University as he was the defensive coordinator here in 2002 when they won the National Title. This is his third time playing against his old team and old head coaching buddy Jim Tressel as he faced them in 2004 and lost 27-6 as a -14 and then faced them in 2006 and lost 37-7 as a -29 favorite. If you're concerned that Tressel will take it easy on his old buddy, think again because in last year's game, Tressel called for a 50+ yard field goal attempt with his team up by 27 points and barely any time left in the game. Sure enough he hit it and the Buckeyes covered the spread in magical fashion. Michigan State comes into this game averaging 36.9 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 467.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.2 yards per play. Ohio State's defense has impressed me this season as they have allowed only 6.6 points per game on the year and have allowed only 215.9 total yards of offense and 3.3 yards per play. That ranks them #1 in points allowed and #1 in yards allowed. On the ground is where Michigan State does the most damage averaging 242.7 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry. However, Ohio State is stout against the run and have allowed only 66.9 rushing yards per game for 2.2 yards per carry this season. In the air, QB Brian Hoyer has completed 61.2% of his passes this season for 1476 passing yards, 7.9 yards per pass attempt, 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Well his long passing plays won't work in this one as Ohio State has held opposing QB's to a 52.9% pass completion rate this season on only 4.3 yards per pass attempt. The Spartans have struggled to protect Hoyer as he has been sacked 14 times on the year and is up against a pass rush that has recorded 21 sacks in seven games. Dantonio always has very disciplined teams that listen to their coaches, that don't take dumb penalties and that don't turn the ball over. It looks like he has that again here but seeing how teams like Minnesota, Purdue and Washington were all held to 14 points or less, I don't know how much more the Spartans can pull off in this game.
Kansas Jayhawks -3.5 (10 Units)
The Kansas Jayhawks take their very impressive circus act on the road for a BIG 12 NORTH showdown in this one. You may call me an idiot or think im crazy for this one but I have Kansas ranked #4 in the Nation right now despite having one of the worst/easiest strengtg of schedule ratings. So the question on everyone's mind is...is this team the real deal or and they just pretenders who won't be in the TOP 25 by the end of the year? Well Kansas is one of those remaning 6-0 straight up teams and on top of that they are 5-0 ATS in those games. So oddsmakers have doubted them all season and the Jayhawks have answered in a big time way. Everyone expected the Jayhawks to be 5-1 coming into this game but they beat Kansas State on the road 30-24 as +3.5 road underdogs and looked pretty damn good doing so. The reason I have them ranked so high in my Rankings is because of the way they have beat opponents. They beat Central Michigan by 45 points, they beat SE Louisiana by 62 points, they beat Toledo by 32 points, they beat Kansas State by 6 and they beat Baylore by 48 points. No matter how weak the opposition, Kansas' offense is the real deal. They come into this game averaging 50.3 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 515.8 total yards of offense per game and 6.7 yards per play. Colorado's defense has allowed 24.4 points per game this season and 330.3 total yards of offenser per game on 5.0 yards per play. The Jayhawks love running the ball as they average 218.8 rushing yards per game this season and 5.2 yards per carry. RB's Jake Sharp and Brandon McAnderson have combined for 12 rushing touchdowns and average more than 6.0 yards per carry each. Colorado has allowed 122.4 rushing yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry which could slow down the Jayhawks a bit. However, QB Todd Reesing was the surprised QB1 choice for the season and he has not disappointed completing 56.8% of his passes for 1652 yards, 8.7 yards per pass attempt, 16 touchdowns and 4 interceptions making Mark Mangino look like a genius for picking him. Colorado's pass defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 52.9% of their passes but for 6.6 yards per pass attempt which is a bit too much seeing how Reesing has three guys who have caught 20+ passes this season and all three are deep threats. Colorado does not have much of a pass rush nor have they intercepted many passes this season which can't be good against a Kansas team that does not turn the ball over and that has not made many mistakes on the year. The Jayhawks have been one of the most disciplined teams in the Country averaging only 3.7 penalties per game and that goes a long way when it comes to winning games on the road. The Jayhawks are 2-1 ATS under Mark Mangino as road favorites and I think he has this team doing special things once again this weekend.
Virginia Cavaliers +4 (5 Units)
The Virginia Cavaliers most definitely do not deserve to be the #24 ranked team in the Country (don't worry I am not bashing them throughout this writeup) but one thing is for sure...they most certainly do not deserve to be four point underdogs against this particular Maryland team. Virginia is off and running to a 6-1 start this season which is impressive considering they won only 5 games last season and failed to reach a Bowl Game for the first time since 2001. Phil Steele had these guys on his list of most improved teams in the Country before the season started and how could you not when they are returning a whopping 19 starts combined on both sides of the ball and have a ton of experience playing for a decent coach? Their only blemish on the season was a 23-3 season opening road loss to Wyoming and I love to see that matchup again now. Virginia moved on from the loss and beat Duke at home the following week, went on the road and beat North Carolina, came back home and beat both Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh in impressive fashion, went on the road and eeked out a win over Middle Tennessee and are most recently coming off a 17-16 win over Connecticut. So it's fair to say that they pretty much keep every single game close and have won straight up both times they have been underdogs this season. The Cavaliers come into this game averaging 23.0 points per game this seaosn and they have done that by averaging 310.9 total yards of offense per game and 4.5 yards per play. Not too impressive but it doesn't need to be against the Terps. Maryland has allowed 22.7 points per game this season and allowed 345.2 total yards of offense per game on 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, Virginia has run the ball a bit too much for my liking but it seems to be working as they average 131.4 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry but are 6-1 on the season. Maryland has had problems with the run as they have allowed 146.8 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry this season. In the air, QB Jameel Sewell has not been great but he has been efficient when needed. He has completed 58.1% of his passes this season for 996 passing yards, 5.8 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Maryland has allowed opposing team's QB's to complete 57.6% of their passes this season for 6.7 yards per pass attempt and they don't have much of a pass rush to make Sewell uncomfortable. Sewell has already looked better than last season where he had only 5 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions and I really like the way he has run this team rushing for 140 yards on top of his passing yards and making things happen at the right time in games. This might not be a pretty performance by the Cavaliers offense but again they don't have to do much against Maryland and Sewell will be the reason they win this game.
The Maryland Terrapins have built quite the bandwagon the last two weeks as they are coming off wins at Rutgers (doesn't look so good now does it) and a home win over Georgia Tech both as underdogs. Well they are not underdogs in this game, they are back to being favorites where they are 0-1 ATS on the season and were 1-5 ATS last season. So they have won and covered only one of their last seven games as a favorite and that should be a big time red flag for everyone betting on this team. Georgia Tech is a bit better than Virginia this season and Maryland managed to beat them by only two points last week. I have to admit I was impressed with the win over Rutgers but again it was a one time shot and I really don't think Maryland can pull this off with the game being played on National TV unlike the one against Rutgers. You have to also keep in mind that Virginia was beating Maryland 20-0 at home last season before the Terps got their groove on and rallied for the big 28-26 win. They have not beat Virginia three straight years since the 1985-1987 stretch of seasons and I don't see it happening here either. The Terrapins come into this game averaging 26.2 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 347.2 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play. Virginia's defense is very experienced and they have allowed only 18.6 points per game this season and allowed only 325.7 total yards of offense per game on 4.6 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Maryland is averaging 46.0 rushes per game but I don't quite understand why seeing how they average only 3.5 yards per carry and 162.0 rushing yards per game. Virginia has been very good against the run allowing only 110.7 rushing yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry so Maryland will now be forced to throw a lot more than they wanted to. That means that QB Jordan Steffy, who suffered a concussion last week and might not play, will have to do it all himself. He has completed 68.0% of his passes this season for 675 yards, 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions. The alternate option to Steffy is Chris Turner who has probably looked sharper anyways but it doesn't matter who plays because Virginia is allowing opposing QB's to complete only 54.9% of their passes this season for 6.2 yards per pass attempt and they have been very good with the pass rush. The Maryland offensive line has allowed 22 sacks in six games this season and that's not good news because Virginia has 18 sacks in seven games and are very aggressive when it comes to blitz packages and attacking the opposing QB. Maryland has fumbled 10 times this season in six games and I think they are going to make a lot of mistakes in this games with the added pressure of an injured QB and the problems Maryland has on the offensive line. The Terps will probably struggle to score in this game as Virginia is the most experienced defense in the Conference and they will make it tough to operate.
Illinois Fighting Illini +2.5 (5 Units)
Marshall Thundering +3.5 (100 Units)
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MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 42-37-2 (+74.30 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2-1 (-0.40 Units)
COLLEGE GAMEDAY PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 5-1 ATS (+125.00 Units)
Week 1: (No Play)
Week 2: Louisiana State -11
Week 3: USC -9.5
Week 4: Georgia +3.5
Week 5: California +6.5
Week 6: Purdue +7
Week 7: Missouri +12
Week 8: Kentucky +6.5
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. Not the kind of start I was looking for but after observing and watching things play out this past weekend, I think it helped a lot of grow as cappers and Im a big believer in the 'watch and learn' type of theory. The rule changes didn't make much of a difference, well not yet anyways and every single week that goes by brings a new lesson in the world of college football betting. Best of luck to all this week!
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Thursday, October 18
The South Florida football program did not exist just 12 years ago and now they find themselves in a position to play for the National Title Game should they run the table and beat some heavy hitting opponents. Isn't it incredible that on September 6, 1996, the first ever football practice was held for this team and they have built themselves all the way up to this? I know there have been accusations that they accept players who don't have the grades to get into Florida, Miami and Florida State but I don't buy into those things and I think some of the other Florida schools are starting to worry a bit that they have to possibly be concerned with a fourth State of Florida powerhouse program. The Bulls are #2 in the BCS right now and I can't say they don't deserve it. They are coming off a 64-12 win over Central Florida as a -10 and those are the kinds of wins Championship contending programs get under their belts. If that doesn't impress you, how about the 26-23 win over Auburn on the road earlier this season (Auburn is pretty damn good in the end aren't they?) or the 37-10 win over North Carolina or the 21-13 win over West Virginia? They are 4-1 ATS on the year, 6-0 straight up and looking pretty damn good. The Bulls come into this PRIMETIME GAME averaging 35.2 points per game this season and they have done that on 393.5 total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play while facing the 31st toughest schedule in the Nation. Rutgers defense has allowed 17.2 points per game this season against weak opposition and they have also allowed 296.8 total yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play. South Florida is not big on the running game but they do use it efficiently as they average 180.5 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry and are up against a Rutgers defense that is somewhat untested and has allowed 139.2 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry. In the air, QB Matt Grothe has completed 59.1% of his passes this season for 1121 passing yards, 6.6 yards per pass attempt and 7 touchdowns (3 interceptions). Rutgers has been solid against the pass allowing opponents to complete only 52.9% of their passes this season for 5.6 yards per pass attempt. They have a good pass rush that has generated 16 sacks in six games this season but the Bulls offensive line has allowed only 7 sacks all season. The big problem on South Florida this season has been the amount of time they have fumbled (14 fumbles in six games) but Rutgers defense has not been forcing fumbles as they have recoverd only 3 fumbles in six games this season. There is no messing around in this game for the Bulls. They are going to thrive on the performance of their defense and should have no problems scoring 30+ points against a Rutgers team that allowed 24 against Navy, 34 against Maryland and 28 against Cincinnati.
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are coming off an 11-2 season that had everyone running for the season ticket gates but for some reason they have not been the same as last season and it's hard to explain what has gone wrong. Sure they are 4-2 coming into this game and sure they are 3-2 against the spread in those games but they have lost two of their last three games to Maryland and Cincinnati, both at home and they went down 14-0 to Syracuse last week before boucing back and scoring 38 unanswered points to win and cover that game. Now lets go back to Cincinnati and Maryland for a bit. The Bearcats are my #9 ranked team in the Country and they beat Rutgers 28-23. Maryland is my #49 ranked team and they beat Rutgers 34-24. South Florida is my #7 ranked so why should they not come in here and win by at least 5 like those teams just did? I don't know how many of you know this but Rutgers has 20+ players on their roster that hail from the State of Florida and im pretty sure Jim Leavitt (USF head coach) knows a thing or two about some of them having recruited them in the past. So the edge works both ways on that one. Rutgers comes into this game averaging 37.2 points per game this season and they have done it on 489.7 total yards of offense and 7.2 yards per play. However, South Florida is the best defense Rutgers has seen all season by a mile. Not only do they allow only 15.7 points per game and 284.3 total yards of offense on 3.4 yards per play but they have done against one of the 40 toughest schedules in the Nation while Rutgers has played their defense against weak opponents. We all know how much Rutgers relies on their running attack with RB Ray Rice and his 13 touchdowns as they average 182.2 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry. However, South Florida's run defense has been outstanding and they have allowed only 106.3 rushing yards per game on 2.9 yards per carry and are as tested as it gets having faced West Virginia. So the only chance Rutgers has in this one is in the passing game with QB Mike Teel who has completed 62.5% of his passes this season for 1817 passing yards, 10.8 yards per pass attempt, 12 touchdown and 6 interceptions on the year. That's at least one interception per game for Teel who could be in big time trouble against a Bulls defense that has 12 interceptions on the season and that has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 51.5% of their passes this season for 4.7 yards per pass attempt. Teel is used to having deep options open and he is used to making big yardage passes. Well in this one he is going to be under constant pressure against a Bulls pass rush that has 20 sacks in six games and I have noticed in the past that when Teel is forced to shorten his game, he tends to make a lot more mistakes. Rutgers has not fumbled much this season but the Bulls have forced 12 fumbles on the season and I think turnovers by the Scarlet Knights are going to be what decided this game and the spread in the end.
I guess you could call this the most anticipated WEEKDAY game of the college football season so far because it comes fresh off the heels of the first BCS Standings release party and if the season were to end right now, the South Florida Bulls would be playing for the BCS Championship aka the National Title. Not only that, Rutgers has been a very popular public play the last few years because of what they can do so you are sure to have a lot of people on the home underdog in this one. The reason I trust South Florida can pull this game off and prove all nay-sayers wrong is because they have pulled off big upsets and won huge game year in and year out. We are not pulling trigger on them and hoping for a lucky shot because we know what they have done and what they can do. The Bulls come into this game seeking revenge for the very exciting home loss to Rutgers last season and motivation is going to be sky high for many different reasons. South Florida averages 35.2 points per game and Rutgers averages 37.2 points per game. However, the Bulls have faced the 31st toughest schedule in the Nation while Rutgers has faced the 101st toughest schedule in the Nation this season and if you look at the stats based on that, you'll realize that South Florida has really dominated good teams while Rutgers hasn't really been tested and when they have, they have lost at home both times. South Florida is a proven winner, Jim Leavitt is a very good coach who keeps turning down jobs at Miami, Alabama and a bunch of other schools and he has a group of guys who can do some big time things this season. Some experts even picked them as Darkhorse National Title contenders before the season started. South Florida makes another statement tonight. Let me introduce all of you to my little friend...the South Florida defense baby!
Trend of the Game: South Florida is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as the favorite.
South Florida 33, Rutgers 22
Friday, October 19
***WEEKDAY PLAY OF THE WEEK****
The Lousiville Cardinals are going to continue to attract National attention because of the things they have done the past 2-3 seasons but don't you think that's just wrong considering the way they have played this season and the amount of times you have bet on them and been disappointed? The Cardinals are coming off a rather impressive win by their standards this year as they beat Cincinnati 28-24 on the road as +8 point underdogs but all that is going to do is have a bunch of public bettors back on their side in this one. Make no mistake about it guys, Louisville is not a good football team this year and Steve Kragthorpe is having a very tough time getting a good hold on how things work in the Big East compared to how things work in the Conference USA. I say that because Louisville is still 2-4 ATS on the season and although they have strangely won two of their three road games this season, they are still not worthy of being favored by that many points in this game versus a virtual unknown to the betting public. Louisville has won all three lifetime meetings by at least 20+ points and that is kinda scary for UConn bettors but this Louisville team once again is nothing like that of years past that won nine games in every season since 2003. The Cardinals come into this game averaging 41.7 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging a whopping 559.6 total yards of offense per game on 7.1 yards per play. It would be easy to assume that the Cardinals can just trample over any of their opponents this season but they better be careful against UConn in this one because the Huskies have allowed only 12.1 points per game this season and allowed only 264.2 total yards of offense on 4.1 yards per play in their games. On the ground, the Cardinals have been as dominant as the last four seasons as they average 161.9 rushing yards per game and only 4.5 yards per carry (they averaged at least 4.8 in each of their last four seasons). Connecticut's run defense has really been impressive holding opponents to 99.0 rushing yards per game and only 2.9 yards per carry so they can make things tough for Louisville in this one. QB Brian Brohm is still considered one of the best quarterbacks in the Nation and his numbers don't lie. He has completed 67.5% of his passes this season for 2765 passing yards, 9.3 yards per pass attempt, 23 touchdown passes and only 4 interceptions. Connecticut's pass defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete only 57.5% of their passes for 5.5 yards per pass attempt which should keep the Cardinals in check and should force enough 3rd downs that the Huskies have a chance to make some plays. The Huskies are a very aggressive defense that has 16 sacks in six games this season so getting some pressure on Brohm is always good if you want to attempt to force turnovers. The Huskies also have an impressive 13 interceptions on the season so it could be that one big play that changes the complexion of this game tonight. The Cardinals continue to have all kinds of problems with penalties this season as they average 8.0 penalties per game for 73.0 penalty yards per game. UConn's defense has a chance to make some plays in this one and I think you'll be rather impressed by how aggressive they can be. Their linebackers are very quick and good in coverage so the Cardinals should be worried.
The Connecticut Huskies are a virtual unknown to most joe public bettors so taking the Cardinals at -3.5 looks pretty damn easy doesn't it? Well NOT SO FAST YOU CARDINALS bettors. I actually have the UConn Huskies ranked higher in my standings than the Louisville Cardinals as they are my surprise #23 team in the Country while the Cardinals are my #33 ranked team in the Nation. So you think im crazy for having the Huskies in the TOP 25 but why would that be so crazy? I mean in their season opener they played none other than Duke (who has been close to all their opponents this season) and beat them 45-14. They looked like crap against Temple playing down at their level but bounced back with a 20+ point win at Pitt before going home, blowing out Akron by 34 points and then losing to a pretty damn good Virginia team on the road last week by a score of 17-16 as +3 point udnerdogs. So in other words the Huskies have competed hard this season and have been rewarded with a 4-1 ATS record which should have some of you Cardinals bettors rethinking you strategy in this one. Connecticut was embarassed by Louisville last year allowing 48 points for the first time since 2002 and this is a great spot to get some revenge. The Huskies come into this game averaging a very nice 33.2 points per game this season and that spells big time trouble for the Cardinals in this one. UConn also averages 375.2 total yards of offenser per game and 5.2 yards per play and are up against a Cardinals defense that has been horrendous this season allowing 29.7 points per game on 446.7 total yards of offenser per game and 6.4 yards per play. On the ground, the Huskies have averaged 163.7 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry and have run the ball more than 40 times per game this season. However, Louisville's run defense has been like swiss cheese as they have allowed 157.6 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry on the year. RB's Donald Brown II and Andre Dixon have combined for 6 rushing touchdowns, 786 rushing yards and they average 5.3 yards per carry. In the air, QB Tyler Lorenzen was an outstanding JUCO before his career at UConn and he has completed 61.9% of his passes this season for 1259 passing yards, 7.5 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Well for a guy who passed for 3000 yards and 26 touchdowns at a JUCO last year, he should enjoy facing a Cardinals defense that has allowed opponents to complete 62.8% of their passes this season for a whopping 8.2 yards per pass attempt. The Huskies have had problems protecting Lorenzen as he has been sacked 13 times in six games but the Cardinals pass rush has been dormant and they have only 8 sacks in six games which should allow Lorenzen to pick his spots and make some plays. The Cardinals have only 5 interceptions on the season and Lorenzen is not a guy who makes a lot of mistakes. In general, UConn has all it takes to win this game as they have fumbled only 4 times all season and have thrown only three interceptions which makes them one of those teams that wins turnover battles more often than not. The Huskies are going to have a coming out party in this game.
HOMECOMING BABY! Yeah I know it's not that big of a deal anymore but this is the biggest game of the season for the Huskies and if my memory serves me well they had a few of these big games at home last year against Pittsburgh (+7 and they won 46-45) and Cincinnati (+5 and they lost 26-23). It's easy to look at last season's big 48-17 season ending loss at Louisville but what you have to know about the 2006 edition of this Connecticut team that went 4-8 is that they lost 44 starts to injury which is a huge number and which is one of the main reasons bettors have had such a hard time getting a grip on how this team works. This game is the start of a three game home stretch for the 5-1 Huskies who once again have exceeded all expectations this season and who have been overlooked by just about everyone reading this right now. Randy Edsall has been coaching this team for 9 years now and in the last seven seasons has led them to a 9-5 ATS record as a home underdog with some straight up wins. Louisville continues to be a public darling because of what they have done in years past and I don't know what it's going to take for some of you to realize that those days are gone, the Cardinals should never be favored on the road and the Huskies are going to shock a lot of people by winning this game.
Trend of the Game: Connecticut is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games that follow a game where they scored 20 points or less.
Connecticut 29, Louisville 27
Saturday, October 20
The Penn State Nittany Lions have been tearing up BIG TEN opponents all season and that will probably have a lot of people betting on them in this game. However, let me tell you guys that this one of the only SANDWICH spots for the Nittany Lions all season. What I mean by that is that they are coming off a huge game and win over the Wisconsin Badgers at home, they have to go on the road to play a weaker conference opponent and most important of all...they have the Ohio State Buckeyes (#1 team in the Country) waiting in the shadows in a home game next Saturday. I can pretty much tell you right now that Penn State is completely overlooking this game and their gameplan in practice is already shifted and focused with a bullseye right on that Buckeyes encounter. Don't believe me? Watch and learn guys. It's not like these two teams play each other much but Penn State is 10-0 lifetime against the Hoosiers and I think winning the game by a field goal would be just as satisfying as a blowout as long as nobody gets hurt. Penn State is 4-3 ATS on the season but 0-2 ATS on the road where they lost to Michigan 14-9 as a -2 favorite and lost to Illinois 27-20 as a -3 favorite. So apart from winning and covering at home, these guys haven't done crap on the road. The Nittany Lions come into this game averaging 32.7 points per game this season and they have done that on 408.6 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play which is impressive. Indiana's defense however has been intriguing as they have allowed 25.3 points per game on the season but allow only 384.9 total yards of offense per game and allow only 5.0 yards per play which is quite low for a team that allows so many points. On the ground, Penn State is averaging 185.4 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry but Indiana's front line has been tough and despite being rushed on 40+ times per game this season, has held up and allowed only 3.8 yards per carry on 154.9 rushing yards per game. So this goes to the air where QB Anthony Morelli has completed only 58.1% of his passes this season for 1544 yards, 7.2 yards per pass attempt, 11 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. He is up against an Indiana defense that has allowed opponents to complete 58.7% of their passes for only 6.3 yards per pass attempt which should cut down on some of the long bombs Morelli likes to go for. The Hoosiers have one of the best pass rushed in the Country as they have 30 sacks on the year (7 games) and are going to come at Morelli with everything they have. The Nittany Lions have had problems protecting him in blitz schemes as he has been sacked 14 times in seven games. This defense has been very agressive as they have 10 interceptions and 12 forced fumbles to go along with those sacks. I think Penn State is in trouble in this game...bad bad matchup.
The Indiana Hoosiers came into this season on a very emotional note as they had to do it after the death of their head coach Terry Hoeppner in the off-season. Well not only did they come out with a bang and beat their first opponent 55-7 in a non-lined game but they have been riding the emotional train all season and have a very impressive 5-2 record on the year. Needing one or two more wins to get to a Bowl Game for the first time since 1993, this team is going to be playing some motivated football the next few weeks with games against Penn State (obviously), Ball State and Northwestern (both of those are very winnable and should seal the deal on a Bowl Game). The fans in Bloomington are very excited with what they have seen as the Hoosiers have already matched last year's 5 wins and return a whopping 16 starters from that team that came so close to the Bowl Berth. Apart from their game against Illinois, Indiana has been good at home beating Minnesota by 20 and Akron by 17. This is homecoming for the Hoosiers and although it was against different opponents, they have now won three straight homecoming games and a win in this one would pretty much guarantee them that Bowl Game regardless of what happens next week. The Hoosiers come into this game averaging some 36.0 points per game and averaging 411.6 total yards of offense per game on 5.6 yards per play. That's exactly what you need against Penn State seeing how they have allowed only 12.7 points per game on the year and have allowed only 264.3 total yards of offense per game on 4.0 yards per play. On the ground the Hoosiers have rushed for 176.1 rushing yards per game this season on 4.4 yards per carry but running the ball might be tough against a defense that allows only 81.4 rushing yards per game and 2.3 yards per carry on the season. In the air however, QB Kellen Lewis has played pretty damn well completing 61.3% of his passes for 1634 yards, 7.5 yards per pass attempt, 15 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. Penn State has allowed opponents to complete 53.9% of their passes this season for 5.8 yards per pass attempt. The Nittany Lions, much like the Hoosiers, have an outstanding pass rush with 29 sacks in seven games and Kellen Lewis has been sacked 14 times this season. However Lewis is a lot more mobile than Anthony Morelli and I think he's going to be ready for what the Nitts send at him. Much like Penn State the Hoosiers have had problems holding onto the ball this season but their defense does have the advantage when it comes to the turnover battle so I think it will even out. All in all, Indiana is going to have to make sure they take advantage of the good field position they will probably have everytime Marcus Thigpen touches the ball and returns it deep into Penn State terriroty. I know his angle has been bothering him but lets hope he is good to go. This is an experienced offense and I have no doubts in my mind that they can ball with the Nittany Lions in this one.
You just can't bet on a team that has yet to prove themselves outside of Beaver Stadium. There is no forecast for a whiteout and for those of you still taking Penn State after reading what I had to say, I suggest you go make a sandwich, take a good look at that sandwich and think of it as Penn State's gameplan. Do you really want your hard earned money to be on a team that is only 6-8 ATS as a road favorite the last seven seasons and that is 0-2 ATS in that spot this year? It's a clear sign that the Nittany Lions are a much better team at home and that this game is going to be a lot closer than most people think. Traditionally the Hoosiers have never been a good home underdog at Memorial Stadoum depite the good turnouts but seeing how Illinois had a tougher time than expected against them back in September, I think this team has come a long way since then and like I have said so many times, they catch Penn State at the perfect time. This is an experienced bunch of guys who thrive on making big special teams plays and seeing how Penn State just wants to come in here and make it out alive, I am calling for Indiana to score enough points to keep this close and avoid being blown out like they have so many times in years past.
Trend of the Game: Penn State is 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
Indiana 29, Penn State 25
The Iowa Hawkeyes were one of my big plays last week but that was purely situational and now this is a new week. The Hawkeyes are not a good team this year but they did manage to put things together for last week's home game as an underdog against Illinois and were rewarded with a 10-6 win. However, it's very important for fundamental bettors to keep in mind that this is the same Iowa Hawkeyes team that lost 15-13 in their first road game of the season as -17.5 favorties against Iowa State and the same Hawkeyes team that lost 27-7 in their most recent away game against Penn State as a +10 underdog. Not even close in that game. They are now 3-4 straight up on the year and 4-3 ATS in those games but have failed to cover two of their last three games. Iowa is 1-3 against Purdue in West Lafayette the last 11 years and despite their 47-17 home blowout win over the Boilermakers last season, it's going to be tough to reproduce those kinds of numbers seeing how a) Drew Tate is gone and b) the score was misleading in that game as Iowa won the first down battle 25-24 which is a pretty damn close margin. With a fairly easy schedule ahead of them, the Hawkeyes figure they can lose this game and win the next four against much weaker teams which would make the Bowl Eligible. The Hawkeyes come into this game averaging only 16.3 points per game this season and they have done that on 313.9 total yards of offense and 4.6 yards per play. Purdue's defense has allowed 24.7 points per game this season but their schedule has been tough. They have allowed 394.4 total yards of offense per game on 5.4 yards per play this season. On the ground, Iowa is going to have to have a big game if they want to keep up with the Purdue offense. Right now they average only 121.6 rushing yards per game on only 3.3 yards per carry and that's thanks to a weak passing attack. Purdue is not exactly tough against the run but they have contained teams and allowed only 143.9 rushing yards per game and only 4.0 yards per carry this season. That means Iowa's offensive production depends on QB Jake Christensen who has completed only 55.8% of his passes this season for 1334 yards, 6.1 yards per pass attempt, 11 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Purdue has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 58.4% of their passes this season for 6.0 yards per pass attempt. Iowa's big problem has been pass protection as they have allowed other teams to sack Christensen 27 times and Purdue's pass rush has 11 sacks on the year so if they're smart, they'll come after him all afternoon and pressure him into mistakes. The Boilermakers defense is aggressive as they have 9 interceptions and 12 forced fumbles on the year so expect them to be rowdy in front of the home fans. Iowa is just too ineffective on offense and now that LT Dace Richardson is gone for the year, I think Christensen is in big time trouble in this game. Don't forget they are still without starting TE Tony Moeaki and starting WR's Dominique Douglas and Andy Brodell. Iowa is screwed here.
The Purdue Boilermakers had things served on a silver platter for them about three weeks ago as they were 5-0 straight up on the season heading into two big games against Ohio State and Michigan. The Boilermakers figured they could win one of those games and make a serious run at the BIG 10 Title should they sweep the board the remainder of the way. Well that all came to a crashing halt as Ohio State beat them 23-7 at home and Michigan beat them 48-21 last week in Ann Arbor. Prior to that the Boilermakers had won all their games by at least 13 points against Notre Dame, Central Michigan, Minnesota, Eastern Illinois and Toledo so if you think they can win this game you might as well go for the spread because they more often than not win by 10 or more points. Joe Tiller seems to have a thing for hosting Ferentz and the Hawkeyes as he is 3-1 lifetime versus Iowa even though Purdue is only 4-15-1 lifetime versus the Hawkeyes. Purdue is now 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall after starting the season 2-0 ATS and they are now back in Ross-Ade Stadium and should find it a lot easier to play against Iowa than they did to play against Ohio State and Michigan, scoring a combined 28 points in those two games. The Boilermakers come into this game averaging a whopping 36.4 points per game this season and they have done that on 434.7 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play. Iowa, like always, has been solid defensively pretty much all season as they have allowed only 15.7 points per game this season and allowed only 301.9 total yards of offense and 4.7 yards per play. However, after playing against Ohio State and Michigan, im pretty sure the Boilermakers will find it easier to make things work against a team with no offense to counter their own misses. On the ground, Purdue is averaging 139.0 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry which should get them enough yardage against an Iowa defense that allows 117.1 rushing yards per game on 3.2 yards per carry. In the air, QB Curtis Painter has completed 63.2% of his passes this season for 1923 passing yards, 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 19 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Iowa's pass defense is definitely their weakness and the only reason Illinois couldn't expose that last weak is because Juice Williams is not a good passes. Curtis Painter is...and he should have no problems exploiting an Iowa defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 59.9% of their passes for 6.7 yards per pass attempt which should allow Purdue to move the chains all afternoon since they pass before they run. Painter has been very well protected all season long by his offensive line and Iowa's pass rush is nothing special so it shouldn't be a problem. Purdue has had problems holding onto the ball this season but Iowa has recovered only 6 fumbles all season and something tells me the Boilermakers are going to have their way in this game. Homecoming is only one week away and please don't forget that over the last seven seasons, Purdue is 35-14 straight up at home. This is a tough place to play.
Well the tables are set. We all know that Joe Tiller has a thing for beating the Hawkeyes at home in his career and I am pretty sure that after playing so well against them last year and losing on the road, the Boilermakers are going to be jacked up for this one. They are coming off two expected losses against Ohio State and Michigan, they have not covered the spread since September 15 against Central Michigan and some of these 18 returning starters are fed up with it. Iowa was a good play last week but that was a one time thing. The Hawkeyes are a spot team and betting on them as home underdogs was as golden as it gets. So was betting against them when they played against Iowa State because you knew it was a rivalry that never gets out of hand. Don't forget that this is the same Iowa team that lost by 10 against Minnesota on the road late last year and that has looked like crap in two of their three away games this season. Purdue has a better offense than Wisconsin does (Badgers beat Iowa 17-13 at home) so I don't see why Curtis Painter and the guys shouldn't explode for points in this game. Purdue it is.
Trend of the Game: Iowa is 1-8 ATS in their last nine games that follow a straight up win.
Purdue 34, Iowa 14
The Miami Hurricanes are having yet another nightmare of a season and like I predicted before this season started, new head coach Randy Shannon is not meant for this program, he is not meant for this offense and he is not meant to run this team. The Canes have not improved any on last year's 6-6 team that was led into battle by Larry Coker. The Canes are 4-3 on the season (2-5 ATS) and with games coming up against Virgina Tech and Boston College to close out the year, there is a very good chance that this Hurricanes team misses out on a Bowl Game for the first time in who knows how long. So you could call this the biggest game of their season because it will ultimately determine what kind of futility they can either reach or avoid. In their only two road games this season the Hurricanes lost both times, the first time to Oklahoma 51-13 and the second time to North Carolina 33-27. That makes them 0-2 straight up and 0-2 ATS on the road this season. Prior to the last two seasons, Miami had dominated this matchup and won six straight games but they have lost two in a row now including last year's 13-10 loss where they had 21 first downs and Florida State only had 9 first downs. The Hurricanes come into this game today averaging only 23.7 points per game this season and they have done that on 339.1 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play. The Seminoles defense has played well enough to keep them in games this season as they have allowed only 17.0 points per game on the year and allowed only 318.0 total yards of offense and 4.4 yards per play. Miami's running game seems to be working just fine but Randy Shannon has no idea when and how to use it. The Canes average 157.7 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry this season but it's going to be tough to get anything going in this game as Florida State has allowed only 98.2 rushing yards per game this season and allowed only 2.9 yards per carry. Do you really feel comfortable knowing that QB Kyle Wright is going to lead this team into battle today? He has completed 62.1% of his passes this season for 1152 yards, 8.7 yards per pass attempt, 9 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions. Florida State allows a lot of completion as opposing QB's have completed 58.0% of their passes against them but they don't allow big yardage plays and have held teams to 5.8 yards per pass attempt which should pretty much send the Hurricanes to a bunch of three and outs. The Seminoles pass rush has been good this season as they have 15 sacks in six games and should be able to put some pressure on the unsteady Kyle Wright. They also have 7 interceptions this season which is a bit of an underchievement but I expect them to make some big plays in this game. The Seminoles are very tough to play against, they have forced 12 fumbles this season and I think much like the last two years they can hold Miami to 10 points or less and runaway with this thing sometime in the second half.
The Florida State Seminoles have not been a cash money cow for me like they used to be 4-5 years ago but I'll still take my chances in what I think can be a season changing win if they can pull it off here. Bobby Bowden and his boys come into this game with a 4-2 record on the year and despite losing to Clemson on opening night and Wake Forest last week (both on the road), they have looked half decent in Tallahassee and I really think they can put things together for a big win here. The only issue I have with the Seminoles in this game is that their level of competition has been putrid at best at home as they beat UAB and NC State, two teams I don't even think belong in I-A football this season. However they did look pretty damn solid in their game against Alabama in Jacksonville and I actually see that game being quite like this one in the end. The key for this team is going to be to shut down the Canes offense, which shouldn't be too hard and then make sure they keep this game a two score game right up until the fourth quarter. The last six meetings have all been decided by 8 points or less which makes the underdog a good value play but trends don't last forever and seeing how both teams suck, this could be the first blowout game in a long time. The Seminoles come into this game with offensive problems of their own as they average only 22.8 points per game this season and have done that by also averaging 342.7 total yards of offenser per game and 5.2 yards per play. Miami's defense has suffered this season because their offense is so ineffetive. They have allowed an unsual 20.7 points per game and allowed 318.6 total yards of offense on 4.9 yards per play which is still pretty good. Unlike the Canes the Seminoles have not found a consistent ground attack as they average only 108.3 rushing yards per game and only 3.2 yards per carry. That should make it easy for the Canes who have allowed only 133.1 rushing yards per game but only 3.3 yards per carry. In the air, QB Xavier Lee is the man and the more he is trusted the better he is going to get. Lee has completed 56.5% of his passes this season for 764 yards, 8.3 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions (two last game against Wake Forest). However, Miami's pass defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 57.9% of their passes this season for a whopping 7.3 yards per pass attempt. There is you x-factor. Miami gives up way too many deep throws for first downs and Xavier Lee loves throwing for 10+ yards at a time. Lee is a lot more mobile than Weatherford which is good because the Seminoles have allowed 12 sacks on the year and Miami's pass rush is pretty damn good with 22 sacks in seven games. I have been impressed with the way Florida State has held onto the ball this season as they have lost only 5 fumbles all season and have not thrown that many interceptions. I know the Seminoles offense can be as useless as Miami's at times but this is a bit different and I think the Noles are going to open that playbook up a bit and Jimbo Fisher is going to show Randy Shannon a thing or two about playcalling when it counts.
You know what's funny about this game? It used to be one of the most hyped up games on the college football schedule year in and year out but that has since changed big time. Both Florida programs have taken a back seat this season to the likes of South Florida and Florida so think of this game how you want but I'm telling you right now that it's no longer that big of a deal. Both teams have taken too many steps in the wrong direction over the last few years and changes are coming soon to both programs. In the end though, Florida State has looked significantly better on both sides of the ball than Miami. Unlike the Canes the Seminoles are almost guaranteed another Bowl Berth this season. I have the Noles ranked #44 in the Country while Miami is my #65 team. The Noles ranked in the TOP 50 when it comes to strength of schule while Miami has had it much easier and are not in the TOP 50 when it comes to that category. Believe it or not the Canes have been underdogs on the road only eight times the last seven seasons and they are 0-1 ATS in that spot this year. I actually think both teams are almost carbon copies of each other but once again I trust Florida State a lot more with Jimbo Fisher hooking with Xavier Lee to make things happen. Should be a good one and Noles should come out on OOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHH OOOHH OHHHHHHHH top.
Trend of the Game: Miami is 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 ACC Conference games.
Florida State 20, Miami 10
The Southern California Trojans are having big time problems these days and I'm not sure why. I know the whole Reggie Bush has really impacted some of the uppoer powers of this program because it directly involves a lot of people and a lot is a stake when the committee makes its final decision on the matter. Pete Carroll has been rumored to be gone after this season and now that the Trojans are looking like crap week after week, the wheels could really start to come off the dynasty wagon. USC is coming off a lacklustre 23-10 win over Arizona as a -21 favorite at home last week and that was fresh off the heels of their embarassing loss to Stanford as a -40 point favorite once again at home. So now that this team has pretty much fallen off the BCS map, where do they go from here? They have to fly accross the country and play against a Notre Dame team that is getting hungrier and hungrier by the game. The Trojans are also going to be without Heisman Trophy favorite QB John David Booty unless he somehow recovers in time from his fracture finger. I don't think he will. I know USC has won five straight in this series with four of those games being by 20 points or more but the Trojans just don't look the same this year. They come into this game averaging 34.0 points per game on the season and they have also averaged 430.2 total yards of offense per game and 5.8 yards per play. Notre Dame's defense has played pretty damn well all season and despite allowing 28.4 points per game (mainly because of their offense), they have allowed only 360.0 total yards of offense per game and allowed only 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, USC continues to run laps around opponents as they average 199.8 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry but they have slowed down a bit as of late. Notre Dame has allowed 186.7 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry so as long as USC doesn't run all over them they will be fine. The Trojans will turn once again to QB Mark Sanchez who made his debut last week and now has completed 61.8% of his passes this season for 153 yards, only 4.5 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions. Not good and not worthy of this many points on the road. Notre Dame's pass defense is ranked #12 in the Country as they have allowed opposing QB's to complete only 52.9% of their passes this season for only 5.8 yards per pass attempt. That should slow the game down big time. USC has had a problem with interceptions thrown all season as their QB's have thrown 12 interceptions (compared to only 10 all of last season) and Notre Dame has 9 interceptions on the season so I think they can make a few big plays in this one. The Irish have also forced 12 fumbles on the year and they play aggressive enough to get their offense some good field position once in a while. I think USC struggles once again this week.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish may not win more than one or two games all season but I am starting to see some changes in the way this team plays. They started the year off with an 0-4 ATS record and looked like one of those teams that would be a good fade the rest of the year. However, they somewhat turned things around when they went to West Lafayette and gave Purdue a run for their money and since that game they have a) grabbed their first win of the year, b) played very tough against a very Boston College team last week and c) are now 3-0 ATS in their last three games. I don't know that I see them winning this game, well actually I do, but its going to take some magic stuff from the coaching staff and some of the players. I was on the Irish last week and when the eeked out a cover against Boston College. Notre Dame is now 7-5 ATS the last seven seasons as a home underdog and only once on those years did they lose more than once the home dog role (they already have one ATS loss this season against Michigan). The Irish have a BYE WEEK coming up so this is their biggest game of the season. With John David Booty out for USC, the playing field is closer to even and the Irish should be jacked up for big things. Notre Dame comes into this game averaging only 11.4 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging only 190.9 total yards of offense per game. USC's defense has been stout as usual allowing 19.3 points per game this season on 266.7 total yards of offense per game and 3.9 yards per play. Yeah it sounds impossible for Notre Dame but it's not. On the ground, the Irish have rushed for only 32.1 yards per game and only 1.0 yard per carry this season but RB James Aldridge lookeed good the five times he carried the ball against Boston College and might get more touches in this one. However, USC is not a team you really want to run on as they have allowed only 66.8 rushing yards per game this season and 2.3 yards per carry but the Irish can't adandon their attempts to run it. In the air, QB Evan Sharpley is the man on Saturday as Claussen takes a seat on the bench. Sharpley has completed 54.4% of his passes this season for 479 passing yards, 6.1 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Believe me when I say he is an upgrade on Claussen and he has the better ability and presence to throw the ball against this USC defense. The Trojans have allowed opposing QB's to complete 54.5% of their passes this season for 5.1 yards per pass attempt so Sharpley defefinitely has his work cutout for him. Luckily for the Irish who have allowed 28 sacks this season, USC's pass rush is not as good as last year and they have only 12 sacks in six games. Sharpley most definitely has the better arm of the three QB's who started the year and I think he is going to do just fine. Despite all the problems at the QB spot the Irish have not thrown many interceptions and they have lost only 6 fumbles all season. USc has a very good defense but I am very confident in Sharpley this time around because I think he knows that if he can play well in this game and keep leading the team to touchdown drives like he has done in the games he has played, the QB job could be his to keep after this game.
The opening line for this was right around -20 for the Trojans but it has since been dropped down to this number and I am not surprised. USC doesn't look like they have that swagger of the last few years and this could be the beginning of the end when it comes to the dynasty that Pete Carroll built. I have been saying it almost all year while betting on the Irish that their defense is notches above what it has been in years past and that if only they had some kind of offense going, they would have one of the best teams in the Country. Their defense can definitely ball with the Trojans in this game and keep the number at a respectable level. We already know Sharpley is the QB for Notre Dame in this game while it is not certain who will QB the Trojans in this game as John David Booty has not really decided if he can go or not. Regardless, I think the Irish are going to be up for this game with the BYE WEEK on deck. I don't know how far back you guys can remember but USC has been costing bettors over and over again when they are favored by more than 10 points and in case you forgot they did not cover a single game in October last year. If the matchup is Sharpley versus Sanchez, believe it or not, the Irish have an edge.
Trend of the Game: Notre Dame is 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a home underdog of 10.5 points or more.
Southern California 23, Notre Dame 19
***COLLEGE GAMEDAY PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Florida Gators probably don't get the respect they deserve seeing how they are ranked as the #14 team in the Country yet I think they are definitely TOP 10 worthy and should probably be in the 7-8 spot ahead of some other teams. What is a bit scary about this game is that Florida is coming off a BYE WEEK where they probably worked really hard on the gameplan for this game but my guess is that at the beginning of the season, their plan for that off week was to prepare for the upcoming game against Georgia and they probably had no idea they would have to be preparing for this Kentucky game just as much. Urban Meyer's teams are 21-2 lifetime when coming out of an off week so we know that he is a good coach when he comes in prepared but will he survive the surgence of the Wildcats? In their two road games Florida looked only so-so as they struggled against Ole Miss winning only 30-24 as -23.5 point favorites and they put up a huge fight against Louisiana State a few weeks ago (I was on them large) but it wasn't enough and they lost. This may come as a surprise but Florida is 0-8 ATS as a road favorite with Urban Meyer. Wow...so as good as he is coming out of preparation weeks, he doesn't seem to know how to motivate these guys on the road when they are supposed to win. The Gators come into this game averaging 39.7 points per game this season and they have done that on 449.5 total yards of offense per game and 7.1 yards per play. Kentucky's defense is not prolific by any means but they have allowed 26.4 points per game, which sounds back, but on only 381.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play. Florida loves to run the ball, much like LSU and they average 202.8 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry. I have no doubt they can trample the Wildcats on the ground as Kentucky allows 194.7 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry. However, the Wildcats offense scores a lot so if you're the opposing team, you can't just run all night. QB Tim Tebow has completed 65.5% of his passes this season for 1455 passing yards, 9.8 yards per pass attempt, 13 touchdown passes and only 3 interceptions. That's impressive to say the least. However, Kentucky's pass defense has allowed opponents to complete only 52.7% of their passes this season for only 5.8 yards per pass attempt and that should help cutdown on some of the long ass passing plays Urban Meyer has designed for this offense. Tebow rarely gets sacked but the Wildcats do have 16 sacks on the year and could put some pressure on him. My big issues with Florida has been penalties as they have taken a whopping 8.5 penalties per game this season for 66.7 penalty yards per game and that just doesn't cut it when you want to win on the road in hostile environments like Commonwealth Stadium. The Gators are going to score but they'll have a tough time against this Wildcat resurgence.
The Kentucky Wildcats are on CLOUD NINE right now and who can blame them? There was nothing cheap about their huge win over #1 LSU last week and although I thought the refs were a bit shady, nothing bad happened in overtime and Kentucky really deserved the big win. A lot of people are arguing that the Wildcats don't deserve the #13 ranking that they currently have but I beg to differ as I have them ranked #14 in my rankings as the third best team in the SEC right now which is pretty far from what experts had predicted for these guys before the season started. Rich Brooks has done a fantastic job with this team despite not having all the tools necessary to win big games like the LSU game. I also heard a lot of people talking about a big letdown after the win last week but why would there be a letdown? KU has been waiting for the Florida game a lot more than they have been waiting for the LSU game and beating the Gators would not only make them a TOP 10 team but it would also mean they have a shot at the SEC East Title and it would mean that their win last week was not a fluke. It has been since 1986 that Kentucky beat the Gators so the stage is set and we'll see what these guys can do when the pressure is on. The Wildcats come into this game averaging a very impressive 42.7 points per game this season and they have done that on 460.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.1 yards per play. Florida doesn't have many starters back on defense this season but it hasn't really shown as they have allowed only 21.0 points per game this season on 324.2 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play. On the ground, the Wildcats have a brusing rushing attack that is almost as good if not better than Florida's as they have averaged 200.0 rushing yards per game this season and 5.1 yards per carry. Unlike Kentucky, Florida is very good against the run and they have allowed only 94.0 rushing yards per game this season on 2.9 yards per carry but that doesn't concern me because the Wildcats have one of the best quarterbacks in the Nation. QB Andre Woodson has been outstanding this season completing 63.7% of his passes for 1786 total yards, 7.3 yards per pass attempt, 21 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions. The Gators pass defense has allowed opponents to complete 59.5% of their passes and they have a very young secondary that has also allowed 6.7 yards per pass attempt, which is just the way Woodson likes it. I say the secondary is vulnerable because although they do make some stops, they don't make big plays and have only 5 interceptions in six games this season which is well below the conference average for picks. This defense has also recovered only 3 fumbles all year and when you don't make big plays on defense and force turnovers, you're not going to win on the SEC road no matter anyone thinks. The Wildcats have all the fire power in the world to keep up in this game and I think they are going to have just as big a game as last week.
Here it is once again folks...my COLLEGE GAMEDAY PLAY OF THE WEEK! You better enjoy this one because I don't know how much longer ESPN can choose a location where the underdog covers the spread. This is Week 8 of COLLEGE GAMEDAY action and the underdog is now 5-2 ATS and has covered four straight times. I think the logic behind that is that the location chosen has all eyes on them in the week leading up to the game and all that does is jack up the team that is considered the underdog. ESPN is basically telling the Nation that the underdog is a worthy dog because why else would they have picked that spot if they didn't see the upset as a possibility? The hype is going to be even bigger this week because it's the Gators coming to town and we all know how things are between Kentucky and Florida when it comes to sports. Kentucky has not beaten Florida in football since 1986 and have lost every game since by a margin of 23 points per game. Sure that's not encouraging but none of those Kentucky teams had a guy called Andre Woodson and none of those teams were coached by Rich Brooks who has done a great job. The Wildcats have their best team ever and the excitement from last week's win has kept Lexington buzzing all week and this should be another classic game. GET READY FOR THIS ONE BABY!
Trend of the Game: Florida is 0-8 ATS as a road favorite with Urban Meyer as head coach.
Kentucky 36, Florida 25
The Texas Tech Red Raiders cost me some cash last week and not because I bet on them...because I bet against them like an idiot. Well I am not making that same mistake this week as they stroll into Columbia and take on the big bad Tigers. Texas Tech runs one of the most high powered offenses in the Country and despite returning only 10 combined starters on offense and defense from last year, they have done quite the job this season. The knock on this team has always been that they can't play on the road but I don't really see how that can be as they are 19-22 straight up away from home the last seven seasons and 20-21 ATS in those games so a 50% winning percentage and spread cover is not too bad at all. The big question mark for this Red Raiders team has been their strength of schedule. Sure they are 6-1 straight up on the year and an impressive 4-2 ATS (including 2-1 ATS on the road) but they are ranked only #119 in strength of schedule which means that this is their biggest test of the season. The odds are stacked against Mike Leach and his guys because they are young, inexperienced and have not been succesful in Columbia or against the Tigers. I still think they can make a game out of this and take a shot at the Big 12 South (as crazy as it sounds). The Red Raiders come into this game averaging 50.0 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 580.6 total yards of offense per game and 7.5 yards per play on the year. Wow! Missouri's defense is good but they have allowed 24.5 points per game this season and allowed 403.2 total yards of offense per game on 5.2 yards per play which could be a problem. On the ground, the Red Raiders have not cared much to run the ball as they average 22.6 attempts per game, 80.1 rushing yards and 3.6 yards per carry. Missouri is tough against the run as they have allowed 137.8 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry. Well none of that matters when you have QB Graham Harrell who has been outstanding and who has completed 74.4% of his passes this season for a whopping 3151 passing yards, 9.1 yards per pass attempt, 31 touchdown passes and only 3 interceptions. WOW! He is up against a Missouri secondary that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 61.8% of their passes this season for 6.7 yards per pass attempt. Harell has outstanding pocket presence, has great protection from his line and should have no problems carving big time holes into this Missouri pass defense that ranks 101st in the Nation. The only issue I have with the Red Raiders is the 9.1 penatlies per game they take but Leach knows what he is doing and I think he has his boys ready to rock n roll.
The Missouri Tigers were my 50 unit COLLEGE GAMEDAY PLAY OF THE WEEK last week and they came through for me big time as a road underdog in Norman. The Tigers are one of the only unbeaten ATS teams left in the Country right now and as tempting as it is to take them as short point favorites in a very tough Memorial Stadium, I am going to have to stick to my guns and call for them to lose this week. Missouri won 38-21 at Texas Tech last season as +5 point road underdogs but before you go crazy about the final scoreline let it be known that the Tigers scored 28 of those points on four Graham Harrell turnovers alone so things could have gone either way had it not been for those turnovers (something Harell has not forgotten and something he has not done this year). I was knocking Texas Tech for having a weak schedule to this date but Missouri is ranked only #60 in strength of schedule and I don't trust them in a game like this. My TOP 25 rankings have them #15 in the Nation while I have Texas Tech at #12. Missouri's toughest home opponent was Nebraska and they beat them 41-6 but let's face it guys, Nebraska is #69 in my rankings and Texas Tech is a gazillion times better than them. The Tigers come into this game averaging 40.0 points per game this season and they have done that on 533.5 total yards of offense per game and 6.5 yards per play in those games. Texas Tech's defense is young and untested but they have allowed only 20.7 points per game this season and have allowed only 341.9 total yards of offense per game and 4.7 yards per play in those games. Missouri's strength has been their ground attack as they have run for 175.3 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry this season. However, Texas Tech has been rigid against the run allowing 163.3 rushing yards per game but only 3.7 yards per carry. In the air, QB Chase Daniel is probably exhausted after last week. He has completed 68.9% of his passes this season for 2073 yards, 7.7 yards per pass attempt, 16 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. He is up against a tough secondary that has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 51.2% of their passes this season for only 6.0 yards per pass attempt which should cut into Missouri's deep passing plans. What I like about this Texas Tech defense is that they have been agressive and despite having only 6 interceptions on the season, they have forced a whopping 17 fumbles this year and that could make a huge difference in this game. I am not saying that Texas Tech can stop Missouri because I think this is going to be a shootout but I think their offense can do well enough to have the defense ready to go out and make some big plays with so much on the line.
So you have the best passing offense in college football going up against the #101 passing defense in college football and you are telling me that Missouri should win this easily??? NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND! I feel Texas Tech probably feels a bit disrespected with their #21 ranking in the Nation considering how they have beat teams and how good they have looked doing it regardless of how bad their opponents were. Like I said earlier I have them at #12 which is one step away from the TOP 10 and if they can pull this off, Mike Leach will find himself right where he belongs. Coming into this season Texas Tech was 11-10 ATS as an away underdog which is pretty good and worth putting some money on. Neither one of these teams has really taken a hold of their own season and won some statement like games but this is a big chance for Texas Tech to ruffle a few Big 12 feathers. I know Missouri comes into this game hungry for a win after the loss against Oklahoma but I just don't think they are that many points better than Texas Tech and although I am not a fan of betting on the Red Raiders away from home, I really think they can come out and open some eyes in this one. Everything points to a Missouri win and cover but im not on that bandwagon, im on the other side. The line is just wrong here.
Trend of the Game: Texas Tech is 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 month of October games.
Texas Tech 36, Missouri 35
The Michigan State Spartans looked pretty damn good four games in this season as they were 4-0 straight up with new head coach Mark Dantonio, life was beautiful and some East Landsin faithful were already calling this a succesful season. However, things went a bit bad after that 4-0 start as the Spartans lost to Wisconsin on the road and then returned home and lost to a Big 10 minnow Northwestern. I was impressed by the way they bounced back last week crushing Indiana 52-27 but I don't know that they can go on the road and play as well as they have at times this season. Mark Dantonio makes yet another return to The Ohio State University as he was the defensive coordinator here in 2002 when they won the National Title. This is his third time playing against his old team and old head coaching buddy Jim Tressel as he faced them in 2004 and lost 27-6 as a -14 and then faced them in 2006 and lost 37-7 as a -29 favorite. If you're concerned that Tressel will take it easy on his old buddy, think again because in last year's game, Tressel called for a 50+ yard field goal attempt with his team up by 27 points and barely any time left in the game. Sure enough he hit it and the Buckeyes covered the spread in magical fashion. Michigan State comes into this game averaging 36.9 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 467.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.2 yards per play. Ohio State's defense has impressed me this season as they have allowed only 6.6 points per game on the year and have allowed only 215.9 total yards of offense and 3.3 yards per play. That ranks them #1 in points allowed and #1 in yards allowed. On the ground is where Michigan State does the most damage averaging 242.7 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry. However, Ohio State is stout against the run and have allowed only 66.9 rushing yards per game for 2.2 yards per carry this season. In the air, QB Brian Hoyer has completed 61.2% of his passes this season for 1476 passing yards, 7.9 yards per pass attempt, 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Well his long passing plays won't work in this one as Ohio State has held opposing QB's to a 52.9% pass completion rate this season on only 4.3 yards per pass attempt. The Spartans have struggled to protect Hoyer as he has been sacked 14 times on the year and is up against a pass rush that has recorded 21 sacks in seven games. Dantonio always has very disciplined teams that listen to their coaches, that don't take dumb penalties and that don't turn the ball over. It looks like he has that again here but seeing how teams like Minnesota, Purdue and Washington were all held to 14 points or less, I don't know how much more the Spartans can pull off in this game.
The Ohio State Buckeyes are the new #1 team in the Nation and despite probably being very happy with that status, im willing to bet Jim Tressel wishes his guys were ranked anywhere else in the TOP 5 but in the top spot. I say that because a lot changes when you're number one and some players tend to react differently. I'm not too concerned about that however as this team that returns 11 starters from last season went 9-3 ATS as the #1 team in 2006 and they know what they have to do to win and to win big. Apart from their lacklustre performance against Akron in their I-A home opener, Ohio State has since blown the socks off both Northwestern and Kent State winning by a combined total of 96 points and covering the spread in both games. That now makes them 29-19-1 ATS as a home favorite over the last seven seasons. I enjoy watching this team but to be honest with you, I have them ranked #2 in the Country behind Oklahoma who should probably still be undefeated. Ohio State has now won five straight games against Michigan State and those games were won by 31 points last year, 11 points in 2005, 13 points in 2004, 10 points in 2003 and 14 points in 2000. Well since this team ressembles the 2006 team, I would say another blowout is in store here. The Buckeyes come into this game averaging 35.7 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 416.1 total yards of offense per game and 6.0 yards per play in those games. Michigan State's defense has allowed 24.9 points per game this season and they have allowed 332.6 total yards of offense per game on 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, Ohio State is averaging 197.3 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry and have 11 rushing touchdowns on the year. Michigan State however has been pretty good against the run allowing 101.4 rushing yards per game on 3.0 yards per carry but I think the Buckeyes can bust through at home. In the air, QB Todd Boeckman has completed 65.4% of his passes this season for 1346 yards, 8.5 yards per pass attempt, 16 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. Boeckman should have a lot of chances to make big plays in this game as the Michigan State defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 63.2% of their passes this season for a whopping 7.3 yards per pass attempt which should allow Jim Tressel to run a few big plays in this one. The Spartans do have a good pass rush that has 21 sacks on the season but Ohio State has not allowed more than one sack per game and Boeckman will have time. Much like the Spartans, the Buckeyes are a very disciplined team that doesn't take many penalties, doesn't fumble the ball much and doesn't just give it away to opposing teams. The Spartans has a chance in this one but seeing how they have recovered only 5 fumbles in seven games and intercepted only 7 passes this season tells me that the breaks are not going their way and they are going to need every break they can in this game if they want to win. Buckeyes should dominate in the trenches and then connect on most of their deepl plays, putting this game away.
Ohio State is back where they were last season, in the #1 spot in the Country, now the question is can they hold on long enough with only five games left on the schedule? It won't be easy to play for the first time as the top team in the Country but when you're so well coached it doesn't really matter. 14 of Ohio State's last 16 home wins (dating back to 2005) have been won by at least 17 points or more so why in the world would you ever bet against them when the spread is under the three touchdown mark? They are not one of those powerhouse offenses that just jumps out to big leads and hopes their defense can keep up. The Buckeyes do everything with class and Jim Tressel knows exactly when and how to put a game away with a few long scoring drives. Michigan State is going to get a lot better with Dantonio running the show but it takes a bit of time and it takes a few years. I like what they have done this season but this is going to be a bit too much for them as the Buckeyes are looking to make a statement as the #1 team in the Country knowing they have games against Penn State and Wisconsin coming up in the next two weeks.
Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games when favored by 10.5 or more.
Ohio State 35, Michigan State 13
The Kansas Jayhawks take their very impressive circus act on the road for a BIG 12 NORTH showdown in this one. You may call me an idiot or think im crazy for this one but I have Kansas ranked #4 in the Nation right now despite having one of the worst/easiest strengtg of schedule ratings. So the question on everyone's mind is...is this team the real deal or and they just pretenders who won't be in the TOP 25 by the end of the year? Well Kansas is one of those remaning 6-0 straight up teams and on top of that they are 5-0 ATS in those games. So oddsmakers have doubted them all season and the Jayhawks have answered in a big time way. Everyone expected the Jayhawks to be 5-1 coming into this game but they beat Kansas State on the road 30-24 as +3.5 road underdogs and looked pretty damn good doing so. The reason I have them ranked so high in my Rankings is because of the way they have beat opponents. They beat Central Michigan by 45 points, they beat SE Louisiana by 62 points, they beat Toledo by 32 points, they beat Kansas State by 6 and they beat Baylore by 48 points. No matter how weak the opposition, Kansas' offense is the real deal. They come into this game averaging 50.3 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 515.8 total yards of offense per game and 6.7 yards per play. Colorado's defense has allowed 24.4 points per game this season and 330.3 total yards of offenser per game on 5.0 yards per play. The Jayhawks love running the ball as they average 218.8 rushing yards per game this season and 5.2 yards per carry. RB's Jake Sharp and Brandon McAnderson have combined for 12 rushing touchdowns and average more than 6.0 yards per carry each. Colorado has allowed 122.4 rushing yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry which could slow down the Jayhawks a bit. However, QB Todd Reesing was the surprised QB1 choice for the season and he has not disappointed completing 56.8% of his passes for 1652 yards, 8.7 yards per pass attempt, 16 touchdowns and 4 interceptions making Mark Mangino look like a genius for picking him. Colorado's pass defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 52.9% of their passes but for 6.6 yards per pass attempt which is a bit too much seeing how Reesing has three guys who have caught 20+ passes this season and all three are deep threats. Colorado does not have much of a pass rush nor have they intercepted many passes this season which can't be good against a Kansas team that does not turn the ball over and that has not made many mistakes on the year. The Jayhawks have been one of the most disciplined teams in the Country averaging only 3.7 penalties per game and that goes a long way when it comes to winning games on the road. The Jayhawks are 2-1 ATS under Mark Mangino as road favorites and I think he has this team doing special things once again this weekend.
The Colorado Buffaloes have been tough to figure out this season as they have shown both their Jekyll and Hyde sides over and over again so as tempting as it might be to take them as home underdogs, this could be one of the worst possible matchups for them and I personally don't see them pulling it off. Colorado is 4-3 on the season straight up and 4-3 ATS at the same time and they do have some pretty big wins over Oklahoma (I think it was a fluke), Colorado State and Miami Ohio but hold a second her. Apart from that win over the Sooners which was really a loss, the Buffaloes have won against teams I rank #95 (Colorado State), #97 (Miami Ohio) and #129 (Baylor). Wow...that's some pathetic stuff right there. Kansas is my #4 team and Colorado has pretty much been blownout by all the legit teams they have faced like Arizona State, Florida State and Kansas State last weekend. Colorado has been one of the best home teams when it comes to hosting opponents from the BIG 12 NORTH but times are changing and the Hawkins era is not off to a dream start (6-13 now with this team). I just don't see how Colorado can ball with a good team like Kansas regardless of who they have beat. The Buffaloes are my #43 team in the Country and they are 6-5 ATS as a home underdog the last seven seasons. Colorado comes into this game averaging 26.1 points per game on the season as they have averaged 384.1 total yards of offense per game on the year and 5.0 yards per play. Well the Kansas defense has 8 returning starters and they have been outstanding allowing only 9.5 points per game this season and 240.0 total yards of offense per game on 3.6 yards per play. On the ground, Colorado has struggled to establish a very effective rushing attack as they have run for 143.7 rushing yards per game but only 3.8 yards per carry which won't fly against a Jayhawks defense that has allowed only 80.0 rushing yards per game on 2.8 yards per carry. In the air, QB Cody Hawkins (Coaches son) is still learning the ropes and he has completed only 55.4% of his passes this season for 1673 yards, 6.4 yards per pass attempt, 11 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions which has cost them big time this season. Kansas has a very aggressive secondary with some ALL-CONFERENCE candidate players who have intercepted 12 passes in six games and who have forced nine fumbles in those games as well. They have allowed opposing QB's to complete only 55.5% of their passes this season for only 4.2 yards per pass attempt which should force a lot of third down situations. Colorado is going to try and run the ball a lot but it won't work which means they are going to probably play from behind and let Cody Hawkins try and play catchup. That is probably the worst possible scenario for the Buffaloes because Hawkins has not done well under pressure and he has not dont well against very tough secondaries like that of Kansas. This should be interesting and I think Kansas dominates the trenches in this one.
So the matchup is set. Are we talking about a Kansas team that is going to be playing for the BIG 12 TITLE come the end of the season or are we looking at a Jayhawks team that is about to be exposed and is about to lose the toughest games they have had this season against Colorado, Texas Tech, Missouri and Nebraska? Only time will tell but right now they are a better team than Colorado, better team than Missouri, better team than Texas Tech and certainly better than Nebraska so BCS Bowl games...watch the hell out. I don't know about you guys but I have tried betting on Colorado as an underdog in recent weeks and at times last year and Hawkins just doesn't have these guys motivated enough to pull it off. I think apart from their miracle win and cover against the Sooners, Colorado has lost something like six straight covers as an underdog and they are just not worth my time or yours if they can't perform well when everyone thinks they are dogs. They are only 22-31 ATS over the last seven season as an underdog and despite playing well at times this year, are in way over their heads against a Kansas team that everyone thinks does not belong in the TOP 25. Well the Jayhawks are not here to win, they are here to win big like they have all season and I don't see why they can't do it.
Trend of the Game: Kansas is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.
Kansas 31, Colorado 18
The Virginia Cavaliers most definitely do not deserve to be the #24 ranked team in the Country (don't worry I am not bashing them throughout this writeup) but one thing is for sure...they most certainly do not deserve to be four point underdogs against this particular Maryland team. Virginia is off and running to a 6-1 start this season which is impressive considering they won only 5 games last season and failed to reach a Bowl Game for the first time since 2001. Phil Steele had these guys on his list of most improved teams in the Country before the season started and how could you not when they are returning a whopping 19 starts combined on both sides of the ball and have a ton of experience playing for a decent coach? Their only blemish on the season was a 23-3 season opening road loss to Wyoming and I love to see that matchup again now. Virginia moved on from the loss and beat Duke at home the following week, went on the road and beat North Carolina, came back home and beat both Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh in impressive fashion, went on the road and eeked out a win over Middle Tennessee and are most recently coming off a 17-16 win over Connecticut. So it's fair to say that they pretty much keep every single game close and have won straight up both times they have been underdogs this season. The Cavaliers come into this game averaging 23.0 points per game this seaosn and they have done that by averaging 310.9 total yards of offense per game and 4.5 yards per play. Not too impressive but it doesn't need to be against the Terps. Maryland has allowed 22.7 points per game this season and allowed 345.2 total yards of offense per game on 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, Virginia has run the ball a bit too much for my liking but it seems to be working as they average 131.4 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry but are 6-1 on the season. Maryland has had problems with the run as they have allowed 146.8 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry this season. In the air, QB Jameel Sewell has not been great but he has been efficient when needed. He has completed 58.1% of his passes this season for 996 passing yards, 5.8 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Maryland has allowed opposing team's QB's to complete 57.6% of their passes this season for 6.7 yards per pass attempt and they don't have much of a pass rush to make Sewell uncomfortable. Sewell has already looked better than last season where he had only 5 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions and I really like the way he has run this team rushing for 140 yards on top of his passing yards and making things happen at the right time in games. This might not be a pretty performance by the Cavaliers offense but again they don't have to do much against Maryland and Sewell will be the reason they win this game.
The Maryland Terrapins have built quite the bandwagon the last two weeks as they are coming off wins at Rutgers (doesn't look so good now does it) and a home win over Georgia Tech both as underdogs. Well they are not underdogs in this game, they are back to being favorites where they are 0-1 ATS on the season and were 1-5 ATS last season. So they have won and covered only one of their last seven games as a favorite and that should be a big time red flag for everyone betting on this team. Georgia Tech is a bit better than Virginia this season and Maryland managed to beat them by only two points last week. I have to admit I was impressed with the win over Rutgers but again it was a one time shot and I really don't think Maryland can pull this off with the game being played on National TV unlike the one against Rutgers. You have to also keep in mind that Virginia was beating Maryland 20-0 at home last season before the Terps got their groove on and rallied for the big 28-26 win. They have not beat Virginia three straight years since the 1985-1987 stretch of seasons and I don't see it happening here either. The Terrapins come into this game averaging 26.2 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 347.2 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play. Virginia's defense is very experienced and they have allowed only 18.6 points per game this season and allowed only 325.7 total yards of offense per game on 4.6 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Maryland is averaging 46.0 rushes per game but I don't quite understand why seeing how they average only 3.5 yards per carry and 162.0 rushing yards per game. Virginia has been very good against the run allowing only 110.7 rushing yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry so Maryland will now be forced to throw a lot more than they wanted to. That means that QB Jordan Steffy, who suffered a concussion last week and might not play, will have to do it all himself. He has completed 68.0% of his passes this season for 675 yards, 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions. The alternate option to Steffy is Chris Turner who has probably looked sharper anyways but it doesn't matter who plays because Virginia is allowing opposing QB's to complete only 54.9% of their passes this season for 6.2 yards per pass attempt and they have been very good with the pass rush. The Maryland offensive line has allowed 22 sacks in six games this season and that's not good news because Virginia has 18 sacks in seven games and are very aggressive when it comes to blitz packages and attacking the opposing QB. Maryland has fumbled 10 times this season in six games and I think they are going to make a lot of mistakes in this games with the added pressure of an injured QB and the problems Maryland has on the offensive line. The Terps will probably struggle to score in this game as Virginia is the most experienced defense in the Conference and they will make it tough to operate.
The betting public is in love with the Maryland Terrapins after only two games where they have looked half decent. It's funny how things workout because Virginia is the team they should be loving as they are 2-0 ATS and 2-0 Straight Up as an underdog this season having beat both North Carolina and Georgia Tech when oddsmakers gave them no chance in hell. In case you didn't know, Virginia has not lost three straight games to Maryland in more than 20 years and after blowing a big lead like they did against the Terps in last year's meeting, I think the Cavaliers come to Byrd Stadium with nothing but revenge on their minds. They have enough guys back from last season to pull it off and I think they matchup very well with this Maryland team. The quarterback position is a big question mark for Maryland this week so like I said before, this is Jameel Sewell's game to lose because he knows he has the defense to back him up this week against a poor offensive team and now all he has to do is execute the play calls and the Cavaliers should have no problems avenging last season's devastating loss that utimately was the reason they missed out on a Bowl Game.
Trend of the Game: Maryland is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as the home favorite.
Virginia 26, Maryland 23
The Michigan Wolverines are probably back on everyone's good side since the early season fiasco that had everyone calling for coach Lloyd Carr's head. Since their season opening losses to both Appalachian State and Oregon, the Wolverines have gone 5-0 straight up and 3-2 ATS in those games but their spread record tells me that oddsmakers are still giving them way too much credit. You have to really consider what Michigan has done away from home and the only game they played outside of Ann Arbor was against Northwestern who they had problems beating and won by only 12 points as 16.5 point favorites in that game. The Wolverines are 11-14-1 ATS the last seven seasons as favorites away from home and had it not been for their 3-0 ATS record in that department last year, they would be in a lot worst shape than that. I mean take a look at some of their games since those two early season losses. They managed to beat Eastern Michigan by only 11 points as a 28 points favorite and the only game they looked really good in was last week's meeting with Purdue where they blew the socks off the Boilermakers and recorded their biggest win of the year. Well the Wolverines come into this game averaging 28.6 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 408.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.3 yards per play. They are going up against an Illinois defense that has allowed only 18.6 points per game this season, huge improvement on last year's team, and allowed 361.9 total yards of offense per game on 4.9 yards per play. On the ground, Michigan will have sensational RB Mike Hart even though he hurt himself last game as he leads this team to 201.3 rushing yards per game this season on 4.4 yards per carry but might be hampered by his right ankle injury (not good for a running back). Illinois has been very good against the run this season as they have allowed only 106.4 rushing yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry which puts Michigan in trouble if Hart is not running at 100%. In the air, QB Chad Henne is back in business and he has completed 61.7% of his passes this season for 1057 passing yards, 7.5 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Illinois's pass defense was not ranked highly coming into the season but they have held opponents to a 59.0% pass completion rate and have allowed a respectable 6.7 yards per pass attempt this season. I know the Michigan offensive line has done a great job protecting the QB's this season but Illinois comes at teams really hard and they have 22 sacks in seven games this season which could get to Henne is the running game is not as effective as usual. The Illini have also forced 13 fumbles this season which could benefit them greatly since Michigan has fumbled 14 times of their own and lost seven of those fumbles. Illinois' defense is going to feed off the crowd and their energy and I despite allowing some points, I think they are going to have their biggest game of the year and bounce back from last week's loss.
The Illinois Fighting Illini are the real deal regardless of what happened to them last week against Iowa. I personally went against them in the early afternoon game and took Iowa on the ML and the spread as a home dog but that was purely situational and I think Illinois can bounce back big time tonight. The last two seasons have seen Illinois be one heck of a home underdog team as they are now 3-0 ATS as a home underdog since the start of last season beating Penn State straight up earlier this year, losing to Ohio State by only seven points as a +24 point underdog late last year and covering the 21 points against Iowa at the beginning of 2006. Well Zook has done a great job with this team and he has the luxury of returning 17 combined starters on both sides of the ball. Memorial Stadium is not usually a tough place to play but with Illinois contending for the BIG TEN title this season it is going to be packed with 69 000+ in this game and they are going to be hungry for the program's first home win over Michigan since 1983. Keep in mind that everyone doubted Illinois when they were home underdogs against Penn State and everyone doubted them against Missouri earlier this season as well as against Indiana as a 1.5 point favorite on the road. Illinois come into this game averaging 26.7 points per game on the season and they have done it by averaging 394.6 total yards of offense per game and 5.6 yards per play on the season. Michigan has been good as usual on the defensive side of things as they have allowed only 20.1 points per game this season and also allowed 339.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.0 yards per play. On the ground, Illinois has been one of the best rushing teams in the Country as they average 243.4 rushing yards per game with several ground attack threats and also average 5.5 yards per carry. We all remember what happened to Michigan against teams who could run like that and the Wolverines are going to struggle again as they allow 126.9 rushing yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry. In the air, QB Juice Williams can be just as effective as the Dennis Dixon's of college football (both Michigan losses have been against black quarterbacks who can run the ball and pass it so WINK WINK, love those guys) as he has completed 55.5% of his passes this season for 716 passing yards, 5.2 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Michigan's pass defense has allowed opponents to complete 57.7% of their passes this season for 6.5 yards per pass attempt so Juice is defintiely going to have some room to make plays. The offensive line has been outstanding and that's good news because Michigan has 24 sacks in seven games this season but his mobility is going to get him out of a lot of trouble in this game. The Illini have to be very careful with the ball in this game because Michigan is one of the teams that forces the most turnovers in the Country. Juice Williams is a playmaker and playmakers are the guys who can beat Michigan. I really like what this team has done this season and coming off a loss last week, I like them even more in what should be one hell of a Saturday Night football game.
Ron Zook has been trying to beat Michigan for years now but has not had any success as he is 0-4 lifetime versus the Wolverines, none of them as head coach of Illinois. Well Zook is gonna get another shot and this time it's on PRIMETIME NATIONAL TELEVISION which is where Zook has always liked being. I have Michigan ranked #20 in the Country despite their two losses this season and I have Illinois ranked somewhere around #34. However, the home advantage and the fact that this game is on late at night for the primetime audience to watch has me thinking that Illinois has a big advantage here and I don't doubt they guys are going to be crazy pumped up for this game. The BIG TEN Conference has not been as good this season as it has been in the past as I have them ranked the #5 conference in the Country. However, the top five teams are all pretty damn close to each other and anything can happen. Had this game not been televised on one of the National TV networks, I would not be touching this thing because some of these kids are not as motivated for early afternoon games that nobody watches. All eyes are on both programs tonight and I really like having Ron Zook on my side for this game.
Trend of the Game: Illinois is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games versus a team with a winning record.
Illinois 35, Michigan 32
Sunday, October 21
***CONFERENCE USA PLAY OF THE YEAR***
The Southern Mississippi Eagles have been there and done this a few times already this season. This is now their third non-Saturday game of the year and judging by the way things have gone in the first two, I don't know that the Eagles want to be road favorites in a game like this. Their first weekday game was at Boise State a few weeks ago where they were a +10 points underdog but got crushed and lost by 22 points. The following week they had to play on a Wednesday as 20.5 point favorites and they lost that game straight up to Rice 31-29. That makes this team 3-3 on the season and that is a huge disappointment because many experts picked them to clean house in CONFERENCE USA and top last year's nine win total. Well that's not going to happen and it looks like a lot of people were wrong about the way this team operates. Sure they are coming off a nice 28-9 win over SMU at home as a nine point favorite but all that does is put more public bettors on this team. Southern Miss won big over Marshall in 2006 but things have not rolled their way this season and teams in the CUSA get way too much credit sometimes and I don't like betting road favorites from this Conference. Southern Miss comes into this game averaging 25.8 points per game this season and they have done that on 387.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play. Marshall's defense has had it's fair share of problem stopping teams this season as they have allowed 38.2 points per game on the year and allowed 468.8 total yards of offense per game on 6.4 yards per play. However, they have had the #25 ranked toughest schedule in the Country so the numbers are misleading. On the ground, Southern Miss has averaged 176.7 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry this season while Marshall has been terrorized but the run allowing 224.0 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry. You do have to consider however that they played against Miami, West Virginia, Cincinnati and Tulsa. In the air, QB Jeremy Young is probably out for this game so in comes QB Stephen Reaves who has completed 56.5% of his passes for 466 yards, 5.5 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Marshall's pass defense has had problems allowing opponents to complete 64.7% of their passes for 8.0 yards per pass attempt but Stephen Reaves is nothing special and should be one of the easiest QB's they have played against this season. He is not a deep threat and Marshall has been killed by the deep ball. Southern Miss has fumbled 11 times in six games this season and for Marshall to win this game, they are going to have to have some help from their defense in terms of forcing turnovers...something they have not done this season. With Reaves the starter (5 interceptions), I think Marshall makes some big plays on defense and helps the offense take control of this game.
The Marshall Thundering Herd are an embarassing 0-6 on the season but when you look back at what they have done and the way they have played, I'm not sure they are as bad as their record says. The one and only time we saw them on National TV on a non-Saturday was a few weeks ago against Memphis, which was definitely one of the games they should have won. I also go back to the game against West Virginia earlier this season where the Thundering Herd were threatening to win all game until they self imploded in the fourth quarter and ended up losing by 25 points which was definitely not the way the game went (they led in the third quarter). I also like what they did last week against Tulsa as they were a 14 point road underdog and they played their asses off and came within a touchdown of the Golden Hurrican (who are probably going to win the CUSA Conference anyways). So after all they have gone through this season, I think Marshall is destined to win this game. They have homecoming next week and would love to grab that first win of the year before getting the chance to win another and maybe a few more before the year is done. Marshall comes into this game averaging 21.2 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 394.8 total yards of offense per game and 5.6 yards per play. That's actually better than the Southern Miss offense who are without their QB. The Eagles have allowed 24.8 points per game this season and they have also allowed 354.8 total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play on the year. On the ground, Marshall has not been efficient enough running the football as they average only 118.0 rushing yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry but RB Darius Marshall has been outstanding rushing for 6.1 yards per carry. I would feed him the ball against a Southern Miss defense that has allowed 150.0 rushing yards per game this season and 4.1 yards per carry. In the air, QB Bernard Morris wants this one bad. He is a Senior and he wants it bad. He has completed 66.3% of his passes this season for 1567 yards, 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 11 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Southern Miss has had big time problems in their secondary as they have allowed opposing QBs to complete 59.3% of their passes for 6.8 yards per pass attempt this season. Marshall big problem has been their QB protection as the QB's have been sacked 18 times in six games but Southern Miss doesn't have a pass rush so Morris should have a lot of time in this game. I also really like the fact that despite all the losses this season, Marshall has lost only three fumbles all season and they have done a bunch of things right and worthy of a rewarding win. It's only a matter of time before they get it together and this is the game they finally win.
Bernard Morris and company are not going 0-7. Not here, not now and certainly not in the spotlight of SUNDAY NIGHT LIGHTS. We all saw what the underdog did last week when Nevada almost knocked off Boise State and don't be surprised when Marshall comes out for this game and knocks the socks off this Southern Miss team that has already looked like trash twice this season in non-Saturday games. Looking at strenth of schedule is very important because stats can be misleading in college football and that seems to be the case in this game. Marshall has played against some tough ass teams on their way to the 25th toughest schedule in the Country while Southern Miss has played bad football depiste having the #112 rank in the strength of schedule department. The problem with betting on Southern Miss in this game is that a) their starting QB is out and probably would only come in as an emergency and b) he is their third leading rusher and top touchdown rusher with 3 on the year. Believe it or not this is Marshall coach Mark Snyder's best team in his three years here but they have been unlucky and unable to close out games. That all ends tonight as Marshall is was 5-0 ATS the last seven seasons as home underdogs coming into this game.
Trend of the Game: Marshall is 5-1 ATS the last seven seasons as a home underdog.
Marhsall 27, Southern Miss 21
RECAP
South Florida -2
Connecticut +3 ***WEEKDAY PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Indiana +7.5
Purdue -7
Florida State -5
Notre Dame +17
Kentucky +6.5 ***COLLEGE GAMEDAY PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Texas Tech +3.5
Ohio State -17.5
Kansas -3.5
Virginia +4
Illinois +2.5
Marshall +3.5 ***CONFERENCE USA PLAY OF THE YEAR****
Connecticut +3 ***WEEKDAY PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Indiana +7.5
Purdue -7
Florida State -5
Notre Dame +17
Kentucky +6.5 ***COLLEGE GAMEDAY PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Texas Tech +3.5
Ohio State -17.5
Kansas -3.5
Virginia +4
Illinois +2.5
Marshall +3.5 ***CONFERENCE USA PLAY OF THE YEAR****
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
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