MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 CFB Record: 24-17-2 (+8.80 Units)
2006 CFB ATS Record: 17-15-2 ATS (+3.50)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 7-2 (+5.30 Units)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 0-1 (-5.50 units)
Week 1: 8-10
Week 2: 7-3
Week 3: 5-2
Week 4: 4-1-2
This Week: 0-1 (with picks pending)
16-7-2 the last 4 weeks
Things are starting to really pick up for me in College Ball. I usually have about 7-8 plays per week but this is one of the juiciest looking cards I have seen all year and I am betting on 16 games this week. I am going to drop a lot of one unit plays in order to play more games and I hope to win at least 13-14 games out of the 16. Good luck to all who follow and please keep in mind that I post information in order to help others.
***I have hedged out of my BYU-TCU 'Over' because the status of QB John Beck is not known.
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Thursday, September 28
Auburn-South Carolina 'OVER' 37 (2 Units)
Alright so I am betting on my third total of the week as well as my third OVER of the week and as improbable as this seems, I don't really care because nobody is Vegas is saying that sequences don't exist and this might be my version of hitting three straight on the roulette table. Whatever. Auburn come into this game off a rather leisurely win over the Buffalo Bulls on Saturday as they cruised to a 38-7 win. They lost the cash on the ATS level but that was pretty much an indication that they were saving everything they had for this South Carolina game which is important because it leads the Tigers into three straight home games. The Florida game is not until two weeks from now so the Tigers can concentrate on pounding the Cocks (uh...) as much as they want in this game. Apart from the LSU game where Auburn managed only 7 points but still got the win, the Tigers have been on a tear this season and they have been scoring more than 30 points per game. With so many senior players back on the offensive side of things, this is an Auburn team that should score more than the 32.2 points per game they managed last season. In their last three games, Auburn have scored 29.8 points per game and are averaging 367.0 total yards of offense on a whopping 6.1 yards per play. They are up against a South Carolina defense that is allowing 11 points per game over their last three but that have faced three teams that won't score more than 20 points per game this year. The Cocks are allowing 286.5 total yards on 4.6 yards per play in those games but they should get torched in this one. On the ground, this is payback time for RB Kenny Irons because he transferred from SC for lack of playing time. Irons and the Tigers average 184.3 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry over their last three games and Irons should run for 200+ yards in this game. I say that because South Carolina is allowing 176.0 rushing yards per game over their last three on 4.2 yards per carry. Irons is going to explode in this one. In the air, QB Brandon Cox has completed 63.5% of his passes over the last three games for 8.6 yards per pass attempt. I know SC allows only 5.5 yards per pass attempt over their last three but with Irons tearing things up on the ground, Cox is going to have a field day against the SC secondary. South Carolina don't have much of a pass rush and I don't see how they can keep Auburn from scoring 30 points. Auburn is very good at taking care of the ball, they rarely fumble and Tuberville has stressed the importance of winning this game big. I say Auburn is going to do most of the dirtywork for the OVER in this game and they should score the 30 points I have been talking about.
South Carolina were big time moneymakers for me in their last game because I had cash on the OVER and the Cocks came out with 45-6 win over Florida Atlantic. It was a sweet total to bet on and now that the Cocks are the underdog, the total has been lowered by 4 points. I don't know what to think of this Spurrier offense. Even though they did put up 45 points in that game and have 72 points in their last two games, I am not convinced that they can run an effective gameflow. I mean Georgia walked in here two weeks ago and completely shut these guys out 18-0. Auburn is much better than Georgia defensively so there is that danger of getting shut out again but I don't see that happening. South Carolina score 7 points in their 38-7 road loss to Auburn last year and this is somewhat of a revenge game where I see the score being a lot closer. Not to say Auburn won't score points but it's more like South Carolina will find a way to score points and keep things close until Auburn pulls away late in the game. Steve Spurrier wants his guys to be a high powered offense but apart from jump balls tossed to Sidney Rice, the Gamecocks don't have much to speak of on offense. They are averaging 21.8 points per game over their last three and that is on 344.3 total yards of offense on 5.8 yards per play. Not too bad actually. However, Auburn is allowing only 3.9 yards per play in their last three games and Spurrier is really going to have to unleash some of his trick plays for SC to score 14 or more. This kind of reminds me of the Bama home game for SC last year where they came out of their offensive shells and socred 14 points while allowing 37. This could be the same type of game and that would make me happy. You can forget about the run game because RB Mike Davis is only good for a few yards per carry and Auburn is very stout against the run allowing only 2.7 yards per carry. This will all come down to QB's Blake Mitchell and Syvelle Newton (not sure who is starting). They need to find a way to move the ball against Auburn's secondary. The Cocks have a powerful passing attack mainly because of Rice's ability to go deep and make some big plays. They are averaging 7.9 yards per pass attempt over their last three games and get to face a tough Auburn defense that allows only 5.1 yards per pass attempt over their last three. The line is going to have to be tough in this game because Auburn can come at you hard. Newton has not thrown many picks the last three weeks and Auburn have not picked off many passes in their last three games. I do see South Carlina fumbling the ball deep in their zone a few times which should result in Auburn points and more South Carolina problems. What those turnovers also do is tire the Auburn defense enough that they start getting lazy and should give up some points by the time this is all said and done. The OVER might not hit until late but I like my chances on a very very low number that should be a few points up.
Trend of the Game: The OVER is 18-3 in Auburn's last 21 games that follow a 200+ rushing yards performance.
Auburn 34, South Carolina 10
Friday, September 29
Rutgers Scarlet Knights -3.5 (1 Unit)
Since those of you who are going to be betting on this game tonight probably bet on the Tuesday night game and possibly got burned by taking Southern Mississippi...this is the public favored road fav that is going to take home the cash this week. Forget about Southern Miss because that game is too risky and UCF has a bunch of experienced guys on their sideline. The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 4-0 to kick off the year and they managed to make their way into the TOP 25 for the first since 1976 or something like that. The New Jersey Univsersity as most like to call them are the real deal and they are using their first Bowl appearance in 27 years last year to their advantage. The reason the line is so low is because Rutgers are going to be without WR Sean Tucker who broke his ankle in last week's 56-7 win over Howard. This is still an exciting bunch of receivers on this team and I am looking for some of the other guys to carry the load for Tucker. Rutgers are 2-0-1 ATS this season and are looking like they are going to make a run for the Big East title. Sure that's almost impossible to do with Louisville and West Virginia on the schedule but you never know what Greg Schiano and his guys are capable of. Over their last three games, the Scarlet Knights are averaging 37.7 points per game and average 322.7 total yards of offense per game on 5.1 yards per play. That's nothing spectacular but they get the job done regardless. South Florida's defense is very underrated I believe but they have some weak spots. Sure they allow only 337.7 total yards per game over their last three games but Rutgers is a very smart team. Rutgers have a running game that USF has yet to see this season as RB Raymell Rice has 604 rushing yards after only four games and he leads the nation with 9 rushing touchdowns. Wow. How about FB Brian Leonard who has 116 yards on the year and two touchdowns? Talk about guys who can move the chains and win the time of possession game for you. They average 199.3 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry over their last three games and will be looking to make a hole in a USF run defense allowing less than 100 rushing yards per game over their last three games. QB Mike Teel has not exactly played well which is why Rutgers has to run the ball a lot more than they would like. Teel has thrown two touchdowns and five interceptions but has been better in his last three games. I see Teel having some success passing as the Knights average 6.4 yards per pass attempt over their last three games while USF is allowing 6.3 yards per pass attempt over their last three. Teel is going to have tons of time and tons of room to make plays and hopefully he is jacked for this one and wants to look good on National TV. The best part about Rutgers is that with Rice running the ball the way he has, Brian Leonard is almost always open off a block and he is capable of some big time yardage of a screen or dump pass. Look for that in this game because nobody has been able to stop it and I don't think USF have the personel to make a stop on that either. TE Clark Harris can catch any ball you throw his way and I look for him to have a huge game as well as Teel looks for big easy targets up the middle. It's time for Rutgers to prove they belong in the TOP 25 and they should do it on a National stage today. This is also a revenge game for the Scarlet Knights who lost 45-31 to South Florida at home last season.
The South Florida Bulls are a team to watchout for over the next 3-4 years but for now they will have to take a back seat to teams like Rutgers and other big powerhouses in the Big East. We all remember the game last year when USF walked into New Brunswick and demolished Rutgers to the point of a blowout win. Well back then Pat Julmiste was the QB for the Bulls and he was outstanding in that game playing a mistake free four quarters which was almost always unsual for him. However, this year, Julmiste is the backup on this team, Rutgers is about 10 times better than last year and Matt Grothe is the new QB for the Bulls. Oh my how things have changed. South Florida scored 28 points off six Rutgers turnovers last year and unless that happens again today, I don't think the Bulls can keep the same level of intensity and gameplay as the much better Scarlet Knights. The Bulls are 1-4 ATS the last two seasons when pegged as the home underdog and I am fading them to the bank one more time in a situation where Rutgers wants revenge and they want it against somewhat of a different USF team than last year. The Bulls are averaging 17.3 points per game over their last three games while the Rutgers defense has been just outstanding allowing 4.7 points per game over that same period of time. The Bulls average 346.0 total yards of offense on 5.3 yards per play over their last three but have their hands full in this one against a Rutgers defense that yields only 139.0 total yards of offense for 2.6 yards per play over their last three games. That's incredible stuff. On the ground, USF don't have much of a rushing attack as they average only 111.7 rushing yards per game over their last three on 3.3 yards per carry. Doesn't really matter because Rutgers have allowed 36.0 rushing yards per game over their last three and USF is going to be forced to air the ball out. Grothe has done a great job so far but he is a rookie/frosh playing on National TV for the first time and nerves are going to kick in. He is passing for 7.5 yards per pass attempt over his last three games but Rutgers is allowing opposing QB's to complete only 43.4% of their passes over the last three games and allowing only 4.1 yards per pass attempt. This is going to be a rough one for South Florida. Rutgers average 1.7 interceptions per game over their last three and with the pressure they bring to Grothe, he will surely add to his total of 5 interceptions on the season. This time around it will be Rutgers that score all the points off USF turnovers and like I said many times before, all the fundamental factors of this game point towards a Rutgers win. Seeing that this is a public play, I am laying only one unit. The Bulls are coming off a road loss to Kansas on the weekend and although they are 3-1 on the season, Rutgers is very far from being on the same level as McNeese State, FIU and Central Florida (the three wins by USF). End of story...Rutgers wins and covers.
Trend of the Game: South Florida is 0-6 ATS in their last six games as underdogs of 3.5-10 points.
Rutgers 28, South Florida 17
Saturday, September 30
Wisconsin Badgers -11 (1 Unit)
I think it's pretty much safe to say that the Wisconsin Badgers are a team that has made me some mad cash this season and they are the team I have bet on the most. I was on them 2-3 times already this season and I can't say they have lost me any cash. Well it's time to hop back on the Wisky train for another week and see how things go. The Badgers are 2-0-1 ATS this season which is what my record is betting on them. The Badgers are coming off a tough loss at Michigan and although they did all they good in that game, I still feel that Bielema needs to let this offense loose a little bit more than he has. He ran the Vanilla offense against SDTS a few weeks back (thanks Pags) and he seem to run it in the 2nd half of the Michigan game too. The difference between the two games was that it worked against a useless SDST team but Michigan was smart enough to put things together and blow away the Badgers in the second half of that game. Bielema has had the guys practicing hard all week in preparation for this game because this is a game they should definitely not lose if they want to contend in the BIG 10. In their last three games, Wisky is averaging a decent 20.3 points per game on 318.7 total yards of offense and 4.7 yards per play. Although that is nothing spectacular, Indiana's defense is allowing 24.0 points per game over their last three games and are allowing 329.0 total yards per game on 5.2 yards per play. On the ground is where the Badgers have to win the game and demolish Indiana. Freshman RB PJ Hill is a monster. He has rushed for 469 yards this season and the team is averaging 136.0 rushing yards per game over their last three for 3.7 yards per carry. Well that should all change today as Indiana is allowing a whopping 181.3 rushing yards per game over their last three games on 4.4 yards per carry and Hill should have another 100+ yard game. In the air, QB John Stocco needs to use this game to re-connect with his very young WR's. The connection has not been there this year. Expect Stocco to have his best game of the season as he is going up against an Indiana defense that is allowing 6.7 yards per pass attempt over their last three games and that is allowing opposing QB's too much room for success. Stocco has been good when it comes to making the right decision when under pressure. This is a good chance for Wisconsin's offense to make a statement and show that they are better than the 13.5 points per game they have averaged the last two games. With Northwestern on deck (an easy win), the Badgers need to make sure they have a big time game and head into that game with a 1-1 conference record. I know their ATS record is pathetic against Indiana but this number is too low and I just don't see how the Badgers don't score at least 24+ points.
Did you guys know that Indiana is 15-33 ATS in their last 48 BIG 10 Conference games? Well that only starts things when it comes to this team. The Hoosiers are 2-2 on the season but have lost games to I-AA Southern Illinois and Connecticut in their last two and I don't see how they could come close to winning this game. Sure you could argue that Big 10 openers are always big for teams like Indiana but seeing that the Hoosiers have the even more pathetic Fighting Illini on deck next week, they might give it all they have knowing they are not going to win this game. Now Indiana did win as a 12.5 point underdog at home against Wisconsin back in 2002 so yeah there is that chance the Hoosiers do have a great deal of confidence coming into this thing but once again, I don't see them matching well at all against Wisconsin and their lack of experience on defense is going to cost them big time. This is Indiana's fourth home game of the season already and the Hoosiers should be pumped up to play Wisky. However, they have looked brutal in their last two games and I don't see what would be different in this one. The Hoosiers do have 19.7 points per game in their last three but they have done that on only 296.3 total yards of offense per game on only 4.3 yards per play. Even after playing against Michigan, Wisconsin's defense is allowing only 12.3 points per game over their last three and that was done on only 227.7 total yards per game and 3.8 yards per play. Safe enough to say that this defense is pretty damn stout (well Bielema is a pure defense kind of guy). The Hoosiers need a rushing attack to have any success in this game and rushing attack they don't have. RB Demetrius McRay leads the team with 108 rushing yards. Huh? As a team, the Hoosiers run for only 82.7 yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry over their last three games and that's bad news because Wisconsin's defense is allowing only 68.0 rushing yards per game on 2.3 yards per carry over their last three games. Now that is solid. In the air, QB Blake Powers should get the start in this game but his ratio is 1-2 and he has completed only 51.7% of his passes. Between him and Kellen Lewis, the Hoosiers have completed only 47.8% of their passes over the last three games and that's for 5.6 yards per pass attempt. They have thrown 1.3 interceptions per game over the last three. Wisconsin's pass defense is allowing only 5.1 yards per pass attempt over their last three games and they have been able to intercept six passes over the same period of time. Wisconsin is going to bring a lot of pressure in this game and regardless who the QB is for Indiana, he is going to make mistakes and put his team in bad situations. Wisconsin is going to come out hard in this game unlike in 2002 when they walked in here after a loss at home to Penn State. Indiana is horrendous as a home underdog and I have absolutely no problem fading them in this game with their putrid offense. As you can see by my trend below, September is always the time to bet the Badgers.
Trend of the Game: Wisconsin is 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 September games.
Wisconsin 34, Indiana 17
Tennessee-Memphis 'OVER' 44.5 (5 Units) ***O/U PLAY OF THE WEEK***
This is the kind of game I was talking about last time for those of you who followed me on the Tulane-LSU 'OVER' last week. This is yet another State rivalry and regardless of where the two teams are ranked and regardless of what has happened to either team this season, this is going to be a high scoring game. I say that because you have to understand that when two in-state teams play against each other, several players on both teams know each other from High School and they get really jacked up to play against their old teammates and/or friends. This is huge. Tennessee is hitting the road for the first time this season after coming away with a 3-1 record to kick off the season. They were only 5-6 last season and are obviously a much improved team. In theory, they should really be 4-0 at this point but some late blunders against Florida has them pegged down with a loss and has them coming into this game having to prepare for a big game in Georgia next week. Tennessee is 19-1 lifetime against Memphis but have never covered the spread (0-6 ATS) and that's another way of telling that this game is going to have a lot of points and is going to be a lot closer than we think. Tennessee comes into this game averaging 28.0 points per game in their last three games. They are also averaging a whopping 355.3 total yards per game on 6.3 yards per play over that same period of time. What you have to love about that is that Memphis is allowing 25.7 points per game over their last three and they have allowed 333.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.5 yards per play over those same three games. On the ground, Tennessee have had problems running the ball but RB Lamarcus Coker (highly touted out of high school) had a breakout game last time against Marshall and is averaging 10.5 yards per carry. This kind has explosive speed. However, the Vols might have RB Adrian Foster back for this one and they need it because they average only 81.3 rushing yards per game over their last three on 3.1 yards per carry. Foster and/or Coker should both have big games because Memphis is horrendous against the run allowing 185.0 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry over their last three games. Ouch. In the air, QB Erik Ainge has been outstanding completing 67.4% of his passes over the last three games for a whopping 9.2 yards per pass attempt. He has great line protection will have tons of time to make big plays because Memphis doesn't have a pass rush to speak of. Also, the Tigers are allowing 6.3 yards per pass attempt over their last three games and once Tennessee starts running the ball effectively and for some big yardage, the passing game is going to be wide open and the countless Tennessee touchdowns are going to start early in this one. This is the first road game of the season for Fulmer's boys and he is going to want to win big knowing that some of his guys will try to relax and take it easy against their old buddies. Tennessee will score big time in this one.
The Memphis Tigers returned only 13 starters this season and although we all expected them to lose two of their first three games, I guess you could say that their offense has played a lot better than some of us would have expected. Apart from losing superstar RB DeAngelo Williams, the Tigers have actually moved a few notches up at all other positions and I see them coming out flying in this game and putting up some nice points. The Tigers have not played since their loss at East Carolina back on September 16 and they have had more than 10 days to prepare their attempt on what many would consider the biggest upset of the season if Tommy West can pull this thing off. Like I said when talking about the Vols, several players on this Memphis team know a bunch of the guys on Tennessee and having had an entire two weeks to prepare for this and go over strategy with the coaching staff, you better believe that Memphis is going to be ready for a dog fight. You probably think I'm crazy but take a look at some of the things they have done. Like I said, apart from losing Williams, they have actually gotten better on offense and should average more than 27.2 points per game last year. The Tigers are averaging 26.0 points per game so far this season and they have done that on an impressive 397.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play. As well as Tennessee has played (all at home), they have allowed 19.3 points per game over their last three games and done so on 321.3 total yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. Safe enought to say that Memphis can score some points in this game. On the ground, RB Jason Doss has some big shoes to fill and the Tigers are averaging only 114.3 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry. Tennessee's run defense is pretty good and they are allowing only 3.8 yards per carry over their last three games. Don't expect much on the ground but that's a good thing because the clock won't run much. In the air, QB Martin Hankins has been both very good and very bad. Hankins is a guy that passed for 7777 yards at SE Louisiana University the last two years (65 touchdowns). He is completing 62.7% of his passes this year for six touchdowns and 770 passing yards but he has thrown six interceptions. He is passing for 7.8 yards per pass attempt and has the pleasure of facing a very suspect Tennessee secondary that is allowing a whopping 9.1 yards per pass attempt over their last three games and that have picked off only two passes. Memphis has a good offensive line and the coaches have worked hard with Hankins this week to avoid those costly turnovers. Like I said before, Tennessee's defense has been very suspect at times and seeing that Memphis have an improved offense, they should be able to put up enough points to keep this close and easily put the total OVER.
Trend of the Game: The OVER is 7-0 in Memphis' last seven games that follow a game where they passed for 280+ yards.
Tennessee 42, Memphis 32
LSU Tigers -32 (1 Unit)
Uh oh...I hope Sylvester Croom and his boys didn't happen to catch a glimpse of last Saturday's LSU game against Tulane because if they did, they may not want to show up for this one. Many had talked about LSU going easy on Tulane because of the whole Katrina thing and all but the Tigers blew them out by 42 points and I don't know how Mississippi State is going to avoid having the exact same thing happen to them. Mississippi State are playing their second straight road game in this one and they are coming off a very surprising 16-10 win over UAB...a game where they were the 9.5 point underdogs. That was quite possibly the shocker of the week in Week 4 and how quickly people forget what Mississippi State did the first three weeks of the season. The Bulldogs failed to score a single point against South Carolina's defense (pathetic) and they failed to score a single point against Auburn's defense (which held LSU to only three points). What I am trying to get to here is that LSU's defense is just as solid as Auburn's, if not better and there is no chance in hell that Mississippi State will have any luck moving the ball in this game. None whatsoever. Get this, Mississippi State is 1-13 ATS in their last 14 games against LSU and the Bulldogs have lost the last five games against them by an average of 35 points. Offensively, the Bulldogs average only 15.0 points per game over their last three and they did so by averaging only 264.0 total yards per game on 4.1 yards per play. No points for them today as LSU is allowing only 188.3 total yards of offense per game over their last three and they have allowed only 5.7 points per game over that same period of time. The Tigers have yet to pitch a shutout this season but it's coming. On the ground, Mississippi State do average 114.3 rushing yards per game over their last three on 3.1 yards per carry but they run too much. LSU allows only 73.0 rushing yards per game over their last three on 2.3 yards per carry. In the air, QB Tray Rutland is going to get eaten alive in this game. He is a freshman who was not supposed to start this year but injuries gave him a chance. He is completing only 43.5% of his passes and has thrown three interceptions and no touchdowns. Yikes. Can you imagine what will be going through Rutland's mind when the LSU defense come at him? The Tigers are allowing oppsing QB's to complete only 44.3% of their passes over the last three games for only 3.9 yards per pass attempt. They bring a very heavy pass rush and have six interceptions in the last three games. Seeing that they held a Senior Tulane QB in check last week, they are going to maul this Rutland kid and the blowout is going to start pretty damn early.
The LSU Tigers had their fun last week and they probably wished that the Florida game could be played right here, right now. Not happening. Now I know a lot of people are going to stay away from LSU in this game because they have Florida on deck but I remember the 2004 game against the Bulldogs where the Tigers won 51-0 even though they had #3 Georgia on deck the following week. It didn't matter because Saban and the boys poored it on for a big win. LSU is now 3-0 ATS at home this season with big wins over UL Lafayette, Arizona and Tulane last week. They have covered spreads of 17 or more points in each of those games and this game should be no different. Like I said before, LSU is 13-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings with the Bulldogs and for whatever reason, they have always taken pleasure in knocking the teeth right out of Mississippi State. The last five times the teams have met, LSU has won by a combined total of 202-26 and they will definitely add to that nice total today. Les Miles has talked about the importance of staying focused even though Florida does stand in the on-deck circle. LSU are averaging 32.3 points per game over their last three games and they have done it on 381.7 total yards of offense per game and 6.3 yards per play. Now that is some good stuff considering the Auburn game is included in those stats. Mississippi State's defense is allowing 25.5 points per game over their last three games and that was against Auburn, Tulane and UAB. Ouch again. They are allowing 341.7 total yards per game on 5.5 yards per carry over their last three and I expect the bad times to continue in this game. On the ground, RB Charles Scott has been outstanding this season and the Tigers are averaging 148.3 rushing yards per game over their last three games on 4.8 yards per carry. Mississippi State have done a nice job stopping the run and allowing only 111.3 rushing yards per game over their last three but today their luck runs out. Charles can have a mediocre game and things will still be open for QB JeMarcus Russell to make big plays. The Tigers are completing 61.4% of their passes over the last three games for 8.0 yards per pass attempt. The line has allowed only two sacks over that same period of time. Mississippi State's defense is allowing their last three opposing QB's to complete 61.0% of their passes for an incredible 8.4 yards per pass attempt. This game is going to get ugly fast because Russell is going to air it out all day and all night and even if Matt Flynn comes in for the fourth quarter, he is going to want to pad his stats and make things look even prettier for the Florida game. There is no doubt in my mind that LSU can win this game by 40+ points and the oddsmakers have not learned from past meetings that you don't make LSU an underdog of less than 40 points when they play against little minnow teams like Mississippi State. I am calling for a shutout/blowout.
Trend of the Game: Mississippi State is 0-9 ATS in their last nine games on Grass.
LSU 50, Mississippi State 0
New Mexico-Air Force 'OVER' 50 (1 Unit)
The New Mexico Lobs have slowly but surely started to pick things up this season. This is no longer a run happy team like we have most of Rocky Long's coaching career here at Nex Mexico. The Lobos are now a pass first team and that should definitely help in games that have high scoring potential like this one. New Mexico showed some seriously nice signs of developping that passing game in their last three outings. They are coming off their most impressive win in a long time as they beat the heavily public favored UTEP Miners by a score of 26-13 and they carry a lot of momentum in this big time rivalry against Air Force. The Lobos finished their 2005 season with a 6-5 record but were somehow overlooked for a Bowl Game and were one of the only teams left without an invitation but with bowl eligibility. That pissed off a lot of people on the New Mexico side of things and they have since comeback and are now 2-2. The Lobos have lost two straight games to Air Force, getting blown out in their finally last year (costing them then invitation to a Bowl) and losing here in Colorado Springs back in 2004 on a late touchdown by the Falcons. In their last three games, the Lobos are averaging 25.7 points per game and have amassed 305.3 total yards of offense on 5.2 yards per play. That's not bad at all for this pass first offense and things might get better as Air Force have allowed 27.5 points per game this season on 329.0 total yards per game and 6.4 yards per play. On the ground, the Lobos are no longer looking to attack teams with 200+ yards rushing games. They are averaging only 111.7 total yards of rushing per game over their last three on only 3.4 yards per carry but once again, they are a pass first team and should have some big plays. Air Force does not yield yardage on the ground so it's probably a good thing that New Mexico has to pass a lot in this game. In the air, QB Chris Nelson is the main guy right now and he not been impressive accuracy wise but he has thrown six touchdown passes. Nelson does have a good arm and big plays are going to be in the cards for this game. New Mexico is averaging 7.4 yards per pass attempt in their last three games while the Air Force defense has allowed a whopping 10.0 yards per pass attempt. Nelson does not throw many intecerptions which is going to be important in this game if New Mexico is going to match Air Force for each and every one of their scores. It is important that New Mexico keep the attack balanced and Nelson is going to have to make sure he gets the ball to WR Marcus Smith who is a track star with out of sight speed and who has 5 touchdowns this season. Also available is WR Travis Brown who has great across the field power and speed. The Lobos will definitely score their fair share of points in this one.
The Air Force Falcons have for whatever reason only played two games this season and they have no excuse to come out flat or anything like that. The Falcons were impressive in both their games so far this season and I wouldn't be surprised if they impressed us with another big win in this game. Whatever happens to Deberry's boys in this game, I don't personally care because I would rather see them score tons of points. In their last five games hosting New Mexico, the Falcons have scored 35.6 points per game and have always been the ones to start the shootout. I mean why not shoot things out when you are returning only 4 starters on defense and you risk potentially losing games if you don't have your offense slinging mud from the opening kickoff? What I really like is that the Falcons came within an extra point of going to overtime and possibly beating Tennessee and last week the came off a BYE week and beat the crap out of a very good Wyoming team in Wyoming. Impressive to say the least but this is what you get from a very balanced rushing attack that gains tons of yards per game and that keeps opposing defense gasping for air more than they have all season. The Falcons are averaging 30.5 points per game this season and they have done it on 387.5 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play. New Mexico's defense is not that good and they have allowed 22.7 points per game in their last three games while allowing 389.7 total yards per game on 5.2 yards per play. Safe enough to say Air Force will score in the 30's. On the ground, the Falcons are averaging 60.5 run plays per game this year and 304.0 total rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry. New Mexico has done a good job stopping the run and holding teams to under 100 yards rushing per game in their last three but their good fortunes end in this game and the Falcons are going to have some huge plays. When QB Shaun Carney decides its time to go to the air, which he does do about 7-8 times per game, he is going to go deep and throw a big trick play. Carney is averaging a nice 10.4 yards per pass attempt and New Mexico's defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete a whopping 67.7% of their passes over the last three games for a big 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Ouch. Carney should have his biggest day of the season in the air and on the ground and once Air Force starts turning small plays into big plays, the floodgates are going to open and we are going to see some huge plays in this game. This is the home opener for the Falcons and it is also HomeComing week which is huge with these military academies. The crowd is going to be wild, the fans are going to make sure this place is loud and even though Navy is coming up next week, Air Force is going to want to flex a little bit of muscles before their academy opening game. Well they have a chance here against a vulnerable New Mexico team that might surprise quite a few by keeping this close and scoring big time points.
Trend of the Game: The OVER is 7-0 in Air Force's last seven games that follow an ATS win.
Air Force 38, New Mexico 28
Akron-Kent State 'UNDER' 42
The Akron Zips come into this game knowing very well that Kent State is going to be a pissed off football team. I say that because it was just last November that Akron beat Kent State on a snowy 11:00am morning game. That was the game that would determine which one of these two teams would be playing in the MAC Conference Title Game against Northern Illinois. Since the Zips won the game and forced a tie with Kent State for the East Division lead, the Zips went through on some tiebreakers and the Kent State Golden Flashes have not forgotten about that. Akron have opened the season with a respectable 2-2 record but when you look at the big picture of things, they should have beat Central Michigan following their NC State win. I guess the two cancel each other out because nobody expected them to beat NC State so a 2-2 record is where everyone saw this team before the season started. Alright. I will remind everyone of this every single time I bet on an UNDER in an Akron game. The Zips lost all their fire power from last year when RB Brett Biggs (1339 yards and 10 TD's, 535 receiving yards and 4 TD's) and WR Domenik Hixon (1210 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns) both graduated. Even with those two guys the team averaged only 23.6 points per game. In their last three games, the Zips have averaged 24.7 points per game on 365.0 total yards of offense and 5.4 yards per play. However, Kent State are returning 9 starters on defense this season and allowing only 11.3 points per game in their last three games. They are allowing only 285.0 total yards per game on 3.8 yards per play over their last three and could be called the MAC's most improved defense. On the ground, RB Dennis Kennedy is out for the game and the Zips average only 93.3 rushing yards per game in their last three. Kent State is allowing 153.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games so the fact that Akron have no proven RB to run the ball is bad news. In the air, QB Luke Getsy is pretty damn good but he is completing only 53.1% of his passes over the last three games and has thrown five interceptions already this season. He averages 8.3 yards per pass attempt in his last three games but Kent State are allowing only 4.2 yards per pass attempt over their last three games and have six interceptions over that same time period. Getsy is definitely going to try and do to much, like he has been all season, and it's going to cost him against a pretty damn good Kent State defense. This is a game where Akron is going to struggle to score points but they might still win a low-scoring game because Kent State are the kings of blowing games.
The Kent State Golden Flashes have impressed everyone with their two big recent wins over Bowling Green and Miami Ohio but can you really say that those two opponents are in the top tier of the MAC teams? Nope. Sure the Flashes came within a missed FG of tying Army and possibly going to overtime where they could come into this game at 3-1 but that didn't happen and what matters is this game right here. The Flashes remember very well what happened to them in Akron at the end of last season and Doug Martin has been talking all week about how this is the game that will determine if the Flashes get into the MAC Title game this season. In all likelyhood it will come down to Kent State making it or missing it by one game again and Martin doesn't want to take any chances so he is going to make sure his guys are ready for this game. In their last four games hosting Akron, the Golden Flashes have not done much on offense and they have managed to score only 12.8 points per game in those meetings. This game is for the Wagon Wheel for those of you who didn't know but don't get too exicted because Kent State are a horrible home team. They average a nice 22.7 points per game in their last three games on 341.3 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play but don't look for that kind of success in this one. Akron have a pretty good defense that has kept them in games all season. They are allowing only 18.0 points per game in their last three and allowing only 289.3 total yards of offense per game on 4.5 yards per play. That is about 10 times better than what Kent State saw when they played against BG and Miami Ohio the last two weeks. On the ground, the Golden Flashes are going to look for success as RB Eugene Jarvis and company have rushed for 182.3 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry in their last three games. The Flashes love running the ball and that should kill a lot of time on the clock. Akron allow only 3.7 yards per carry in their last three games and they should slow down the running game enough to force Kent to throw the ball, something they don't want to do. When they do go to the air, QB Julien Edelman has not been that good, completing 55.7% of his passes but throwing five interceptions and only three touchdowns. In their last three games, the Flashes have passed for 7.1 yards per pass attempt but their luck should run out against Akron who have one of the best secondaries in the country and allow only 5.3 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. They have also picked off 1.3 passes per game in their last three and once they send pressure on the Sophomore QB, he is going to make mistakes and the Zips should be able to force turnovers. I don't see Kent State winning this game. Akron have lost a lot of fire power but they have the better coach and they should win.
Trend of the Game: The UNDER is 7-0 in Kent State's last seven games.
Akron 17, Kent State 14
Texas Tech-Texas A&M 'UNDER' 57.5 (2 Units)
This kind of game might be what you call Sports Gambling suicide if you are like me and want to take the UNDER in a game that could potentially feature 100 points or more like it has in the past but when a total is released and it is almost at 60, you have to pick your spots and pound the UNDER when necessary. Well now is the time to take this UNDER. The Texas Tech Red Raiders and their powerhouse offense roll into College Station this week looking to kick some big time ass. However, are you guys all that convinced that Tech can score big time points on the road like they score at home? Did you see what TCU did to Leach's offense a few weeks back when they held them to only 3 points? That was incredible seeing that Texas Tech had scored in double digits every single game since the 2001 42-7 loss to Texas. Well the streak is over now and although it won't happen again this season, it tells me that Tech's offense is the weakest it has been since the 2000 and 2001 seasons which means that oddsmakers are exagerating and overreacting when they slap such big totals on games between these two teams. The Red Raiders are averaging 34.3 points per game in their last three games which is pretty damn impressive but you have to keep in mind that they scored 62 last week against a I-AA SE Louisiana team. They average 410.0 total yards per game on 6.1 yards per play in their last three games but did I mention that Texas A&M have allowed only 15 points per game in their last three and that their defense is solid returning 7 starters? The Aggies are allowing only 263.0 total yards of offense in their last three and allowing only 4.5 yards per play. The problem I have with Tech this year is that they don't have a rushing attack to rely on. They average only 82.3 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry over their last three which shows me they miss Taurean Henderson and Cody Hodges. That's really good news for the Aggies defense because they allow 135.7 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry over their last three and TT might be forced to run the ball in this one for success. In the air, QB Graham Harrell has been great but this is going to be a test for him. He is completing 65.3% of his passes for 6.8 yards per pass attempt over the last three games but the trouble starts when I tell you that the Aggies secondary is just nasty. They allowed their last three QB opponents to complete only 42.1% of their passes for only 5.0 yards per pass attempt. For such a high total, that's some low numbers. The Aggies also intercept at least one pass in their last three games. I see Texas Tech having problems at times in this game. For this total to go OVER, the Red Raiders would have to score points on almost all their possessions and I don't see that happening after their 3 point debacle at TCU. This is the first time in years that a Senior QB is not running the team and College Station is a place that takes experience to succeed in. The Aggies fans are going to be going crazy and the Red Raiders are going to have enough problems to keep this high total UNDER.
The Texas A&M Aggies are coming off a 5-6 season which is not acceptable by their standards. It was tough on the team, the fans and the school and they have responded by starting the year 4-0 and are ready for their biggest test to date. Did you know that prior to the 2001 season, the Aggies and Texas Tech averaged only 39 points per game in their meetings and that was from 1981 to 2001. Now that both teams are sporting Sophomore QB's instead of Senior QB's like the past 4 years they have met, we are surely going to see another dropoff in the big point games and I have a feeling that oddsmakers have not adjusted to the changes these teams have made. The Aggies are coming off a win over Louisiana Tech that saw them enjoy themselves at the expense of their much weaker opponent. The Aggies have not really faced any team worthy of TOP 50 ranking and the #28 Texas Tech Raiders are going to be a huge challenge for a team that is looking to improve on their 31.2 points per game allowed in 2005. College Station is going to be rocking for this huge rivalry and I expect the fans to have an impact on the final score. The Aggies are averaging 41.3 points per game in their last three games but those were against three garbage teams. They average 448.7 total yards of offense per game on 6.9 yards per play over those three games but have to face a Texas Tech defense that is allowing only 298.3 total yards per game on 4.6 yards per play and only 15.7 points per game over their last three games. On the ground, the Aggies love to run the ball and RB Jovorskie Lane has been their leader. The Aggies average 212.3 rushing yards per game on 5.4 yards per carry but must now face a very good Texas Tech defense that is allowing only 119.3 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry over their last three games. Lane has speed but TT's D-Line is much improved this season and they are some quick big guys. In the air, QB Stephen McGee is quick and he can pass. He has been outstanding this season completing 68.1% of his passes for 820 passing yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions. He is passing for 9.3 yards per pass attempt over the last three games and he should have another fine day of passing the football. The Red Raiders defense allows only 5.7 yards per pass attempt over their last three games and they have been good with pressure, recording an impressive and unprecedented (for them anyways) 2.3 sacks per game over their last three. This is the biggest start of McGee's young career and nerves will factor in to his early struggles which should settle down by the second half. Hopefully by then it will be too late and the UNDER will be nice and safe. With two young QB's going at it we should be good in this one and I don't think we are going to have to sweat things out. As for the Aggies winning or covering this game, I think they can do it. The road team has won only 2 of the last 10 meetings and I expect A&M to be underdogs in this game but they are favored and I like them a lot more when the points are on their side. This is going to be a tough one for McGee looks to be the real deal and we should see a good game but not in your typical TT shootout.
Trend of the Game: The UNDER is 7-0 in Texas Tech's last seven games that follow a game where they allowed 275 total yards or less.
Texas A&M 28, Texas Tech 24
Central Michigan Chippewas +6.5 (2 Units)
The Central Michigan Chippewas come into this game on a two game win streak and to tell you the truth about these guys, they looked pretty damn good in both their losses. In their season opener against Boston College, the Chipps managed to score 24 points and kept the game close before heading out to Ann Arbour and putting up 17 points on what looks to be a very good Michigan defense. This is a big game for Chippewas and the MAC division because if they play like they have the rest of the season, CMU can make a serious case that the MAC is becoming a much better conference. The Chipps beat a very good Akron team at home in Week 3 and are now coming off a sweet 24-17 overtime win over Eastern Michigan last week. That would put the team on an all-time confidence high heading into this SEC Stadium. Interestingly enough, CMU are playing on grass for the first time this season and their track record on grass is not that good. However, this is a different team and things change. The Chipps are 4-0 ATS this season and I still can't believe it seeing that this team was 9-33 ATS the last seven seasons before this. You have to be tough in trenches to compete with SEC teams and CMU is very tough in the trenches. They come in here averaging 21.7 points per game in their last three games on 315.7 total yards of offense and 4.9 yards per play in those games. Kentucky have been decent lately allowing only 15.7 points per game in their last three but two of their opponents were a joke and that would explain things. What tells the real story is that in their last three games, they allow 373.0 total yards per game on a whopping 6.1 yards per play. That's some bad defense. On the ground is where CMU needs to attract attention. RB Ontario Sneed has struggled badly in his sophomore year and has not passed 50 rushing yards in a game this year. Well this is the time to shine boy because Kentucky is allowing 165.0 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry over their last three games and Sneed should have a big time breakout game in this one. This is still the kid that ran for 1065 yards as a freshman last year. Watch out. In the air, it looks like QB Brian Brunner is back in charge. That's probably good because he has completed 69.0% of his passes and has not thrown an INT all season (he missed a few games anyways). Brunner should have a good game because the Chipps average 6.0 yards per pass attempt in their last three games while Kentucky has been torched more times than not and allow 7.7 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. The O-Line is pretty damn good and unless Kentucky can mount some kind of pressure that we haven't seen in past weeks, CMU has a great shot at winning this game and shocking the football world. This is going to be a landmark game for the Chippewas and for the MAC Division and we should see some breakout performances by some of the players on CMU.
The Kentucky Wildcats come into this game with a very respectable 2-2 record and I say that because they only had three wins all year in 2005 and now they have almost matched that total. Something they can do tonight but don't be so sure about it. The line opened at some books at -6.5 and at some books lower. However, the play has been hit hard by the public and the line is now at -7.5 but I have already bet on the game at 6.5 and have no intentions of hedging or backing out of this thing. The Wildcats are coming off a rough and tough game against rivals Florida and I don't know how mentally prepared they are going to be for this game. That loss brought them all back down to earth and now they have to face a team they don't really care about playing against. Not only that, CMU is a pumped up and confident team that can strike when you least expect it so this has now turned into somewhat of a matchup you would expect to see in a Bowl Game in Decemeber. Kentucky is 0-3 ATS lifetime against Central Michigan while their last game against a MAC team was in 2004 when they lost to Ohio at home 28-16. Can you say repeat or what? The Wildcats have a decent offense this year as they average 26.3 points per game in their last three and go up against a defense that has allowed just as many per game in their own last three. The Cats average 355.0 total yards per game on 5.5 yards per play in their last three games while CMU's defense is allowing 389.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.1 yards per play (which is 1.0 yards per play less than Kentucky's defense) over their last three games. The ground game has badly struggled for Kentucky as they average only 102.3 rushing yards per game on 3.2 yards per carry over their last three games. CMU is a team you want to beat on the ground to setup a pass attack because they allow 167.0 rushing yards per game. However...the Chippewas have had opponents attempt 42.7 rushes per game against them over the last three and allow only 3.9 yards per rush. So it's a bit misleading. In the air, QB Andre Woodson is playing very well this season and he is the only reason the Wildcats will win this game. He has 10 touchdown passes with one interception and he has completed 60.9% of his passes. He averages 7.7 yards per pass attempt over the last three games but the Chippewas are decent defensively and allow only 6.7 yards per pass attempt over their last three games. Kentucky's O-Line is very sketchy though and if the Chippewas send a lot of pressure like they usually like to do, Woodson is going to go down quite a few times in this game. Like I said before, the Wildcats might still be a little hungover from the Florida game and practicing for a MAC conference opponent is nothing to get excited about. Well this MAC opponent is red hot right now and don't be shocked if the Wildcats lose.
Trend of the Game: Central Michigan is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games that follow a game where they had 450+ yards of offense.
Kentucky 24, Central Michigan 21
Arkansas State-Florida International 'UNDER' 45 (2 Units)
The Arkansas State Indians are definitely not the team they were last year having lost players like QB Nick Noce, RB's Antonio Warren and Shamar Bracey as well as some key members of their special teams. Well let me tell you that 66-24 home win by Arkansas State over this same Florida International team is not going to happen again. In fact, the Indians will be lucky if they can score 20 points in this game because they haven't done it this season and I don't see them doing it here against a much improved FIU. That was just ridiculous to score 66 points like that (it was a school record versus a I-A school). Now the Indians hit the road to Miami where FIU stadium should be jam packed with fans who want revenge for that embarassing loss. The Indians returned only six starters on offense and are coming off a 55-9 loss against a pathetic SMU team. Prior to that thry beat Army at home in their season opener before losing to Oklahoma State 35-7 in Week 2 action. This is make or break time for Steve Roberts and I have a feeling his point of focus in practice this week was to cut down on the points allowed and concentrate more on the fundamentals of football. The Indians come in averaging only 10.0 points per game this season on 256.3 total yards of offense and 4.3 yards per play. The bad news is that FIU's defense has been their strong point this season and they have allowed only 22.7 points per game in their last three (I say only because it was against Maryland, BG and South Florida) and they have allowed only 4.7 yards per play on 327.3 total yards of offense per game in their last three. On the ground, the Indians have struggle badly to replace Warren and as much as they have tried to run, they average only 3.2 yards per carry this season and rush about 40+ times per game. Florida International have been very good against the run this season allowing 3.5 yards per carry to their opponents. In the air is where things get tricky because QB's Travis Hewitt and Corey Leonard have both been ineffective over their last few games. They have combined for a 49.2% completion rate this season and have passed for 5.8 yards per pass attempt. The problem is that the O-Line is weak and opponents average 4.7 sacks per game against these guys. FIU don't have much of a pass rush but their secondary makes up for it as they allow opposing QB's to complete only 53.8% of their passes over the last three weeks for 6.2 yards per pass attempt. They also have 1.7 interceptions per game over their last three and should be able to shut down the Indians in this game. Without any experience at the QB level and without a good running game to speak of, the Indians are going to have problems in this game. Making things worst, WR Levi Dejohnette (team's #1 receiver in 2005) is out with a concussion and the Indians will continue to have problems putting points on the board and winning games for that matter. The honus will be 100% on the defense to win them games this season but that doesn't always work and although their defense is solid, FIU should get their revenge.
The Florida International Golden Panthers (why are all these teams called Golden?) made me money their last time out as they easily covered an 18.5 point underdog spread and came very close to beating the Maryland Terrapins in Maryland. That was one heck of an impressive outing and this is a team that is about 10 times better than their 0-4 record shows and I say that because they lost by 1 to Middle Tennessee in the opener, lost 1 at South Florida in week 2, lost by 5 at home against Bowling Green and lost by in Maryland last week. So now they have four losses by a total of 11 points which is usually an indication that a team is due for good fortune and what better game to pick for a win than a game where they are trying to exact revenge on a 66-24 drubbing at the hands of these same Indians in 2005. That game ugly and I can tell you now that several guys on both sides of the ball remember that game quite well and that has been circled on their calendars for quite some time. Don Strock (ex Dolphins QB) is a good coach and although his team is young, they have done him proud. The only problem is that their defense is solid as rocks but their offense returned only 4 starters and can't seem to score enough points to give them the win. The Panthers average 19.3 points per game in their last three games but that was done on only 301.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.4 yards per play. Now I know Arkansas State have given up 32.0 points per game this season but they still have one of the best defenses in the Sun Belt with the best LB unit in the Conference as well as one of the best secondaries. On the ground, FIU have really struggled as they have rushed for 100.0 rushing yards on 3.8 yards per carry over their last three games. We might see FIU go to the ground a lot more in this one because Arkansas State's weakness is the run defense which is allowing 155.3 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry in their last three games. RB A'Mod Ned is a solid RB averaging 6.5 yards per carry and I expect him to milk a lot of clock with his constant running of the ball. I think the Panthers are going to run a lot in this one because QB Josh Padrick has thrown 5 interceptions this season and is completing only 54.4% of his passes. If he does go to the air, he is averaging 6.7 yards per pass attempt but that was because of a few long bombs last week. Arkansas State need to start showing their strength in the secondary and this is the game to do it. Sure they allow more than 7.0 yards per pass attempt but Padrick is skeptical when throwing the ball and the Indians already have six interceptions on the season. I see this happening several times over the course of this game. We should see some fumbles and turnovers on both sides of the ball this week and even if both teams get a lot of positive yardage, those turnovers will pretty much cancel all that out and have more time tick off the clock for no reason (since the time runs on a change of possession). Our best friend in this game is the defenses and their abilities to create enough turnovers. We all know Arkansas State won't score many points in this one seeing that 42 of their 66 points came off turnovers in the last meeting. The emphasis in this game will be on clock control, ball movement and heads up football which usually means we are in for a fundamental sleeper.
Trend of the Game: The UNDER is 7-0 in Arkansas State's last seven games after allowing 40+ points the game before.
Florida International 17, Arkansas State 16
Clemson Tigers -33 (1 Unit)
The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs can only hope that Clemson would go easy on them in a game like this but with the Tigers having Wake Forest and Temple on game, this is a great chance for Tommy Bowden's guys to really pad their stats over the next three weeks and make sure they lead the nation in several offensive categories. The Bulldogs are 0-2 ATS this season and although they are 1-2 on the year, winning more than a few games is going to be a challenge and I say challenge because they almost lost to I-AA Nicholl State back on September 18. This is definitely a team that is rebuilding because even though their offense brought back 8 starters, their defense is going to get mashed up in this one as they managed to return only 2 starters. Ouch. So far this season we have observed Jack Bicknell's guys allow more than 21 point in all three of their games and we have seen them struggle to score more than a touchdown per game (something they somehow managed to do twice this year but it was lucky, believe me). They can only come into games like this and pray that their opponents don't score 50+ points but when you return only 2 guys on defense, good teams are going to blow you out of the sky. Sure the Bulldogs have managed to average 18.3 points per game this season but they have done so on 329.3 total yards per game and 5.7 yards per play which is pretty damn good (but once again the defense kills that). Clemson's defense have allowed 20.3 points per game in their last three but look for them to come out strong at home as they have allowed only 225.3 total yards of offense per game in their last three on a nice 3.8 yards per play. On the ground, RB Patrick Jackson and company average only 106.0 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry and you can forget about running the ball against Clemson because they allow only 88.7 rushing yards per game on 2.7 yards per carry in their last three games. As for the pass attack, QB Zac Champion is far from being a champion and he is completing only 47.5% of his passes but has thrown 4 touchdown passes and only one interception. The Bulldogs do average 7.8 yards per pass attempt this season but the problem in this game is that Clemson allow opposing QB's to complete only 49.4% of their passes over their last three games and they allow only 5.1 yards per pass attempt over that same period of time. The problem with Louisiana Tech's offense has been turnovers. They average 2.3 fumbles per game this season which is bad news against a Clemson defense that have forced 2.3 fumbles per game in their last three games. The Tigers are going to pressure champion all night long and that should result in some big mistakes and another blowout loss to a TOP 25 team for the Bulldogs. They being WAC Conference play next week but even that looks bad as they have to play their opener in Boise State. This is a disaster season for the Bulldogs and the blowouts like this one will be a rude reminder that we are going to make money off of quite a few times this year. The offense is too young to keep up and I don't know how the defense is going to stop the Clemson attack.
The Clemson Tigers are starting to like home games because after their most recent blowout win against North Carolina, the Tigers have won their last five home games (against Temple, Duke, Florida State, Florida Atlantic and most recently North Carolina) by an average margin of 34.6 points per game which impresses the hell out of me because they had FSU in there and North Carolina is never a pushover. Well now is the time to extend that streak and let the blowouts at home continue because their next home opponents after this are Georgia Tech, Maryland, NC State and South Carolina. Now that I look at it, Clemson have a great chance at winning all their remaining games this season and it's too bad that a small blunder in overtime cost the Tigers the in in Boston College back on week 2 of the season. What could have been we will never know but one thing I know is that the Tigers are one heck of a solid squad this year. They return 8 starters on offense and it has shown in their relentless attacks this season. Their goal is still to win the ACC which at this point I definitely see happening because nobody has looked as impressive as them. These are the games where the Tigers have to make sure they maintain focus and keep pounding teams into the ground. They have average 37.3 points per game in their last three games and that was done on a whopping 442.7 total yards of offense per game and 6.1 yards per play. Things could get really nasty in this game because Louisiana Tech return only two starters on defense and they have allowed 38.3 points per game this season on 432.3 total yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. So I believe it's safe enough to assume that Clemson is going to score 50 points in this game and hopefully their defense is up for the shutout task. On the ground, RB's James Davis and Reggie Merriweather should both rush for 100+ yards in this one as the Tigers have busted some big runs this year and average 203.7 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry in their last three games. Louisiana Tech have not been able to stop mediocre running attack this season and they allow a whopping 182.0 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry and both Davis and Merriweather should have some runs to remember in this one. In the air, QB Will Proctor has passed for 837 yards, is completing 60.7% of his passes and has thrown six touchdown passes. I call him a darkhorse to win the Heisman Trophy depending on what the Tigers do from here on in and what they do in the ACC Title Game. Proctor has passed for a nice 7.9 yards per pass attempt in his last three games and has been picked off only once since his interception in the opener. The good news here is that Louisiana Tech have been torched through the air this season and are allowing 9.4 yards per pass attempt (ouuuuch) and dont' have any kind of QB pressure or tough secondary to speak of. WR's Chansi Stuckey and Rendrick Taylor could both have career games in this one and I see Stuckey catching at least three touchdown passes here. Like I said before, if Clemson wants a piece of the pie in any given way at the end of the season, these are the games where they have to make statement after statement and show that they can roll with all the big boys. They have an easy schedule to finish the year and guys should be happy to have a good chance to pad their stats big time and look good for the next NFL draft or for National Title implications if it ever comes to that. The Tigers are 3-0 ATS lifetime against WAC teams and have covered each of those games by at least 12 points. That is some impressive stuff and says a lot about how Bowden keeps his guys focused.
Trend of the Game: Louisiana Tech is 0-7 ATS in their last seven September games.
Clemson 50, Louisiana Tech 9
USC-Washington State 'OVER' 51 (2 Units)
The USC Trojans come into this game looking to regain that offensive swagger they displayed in their opener at Arkansas and if Pete Caroll was looking to score another 50 points on a certain tean, the Washington State Cougars are the team to do it against. Since their season opening 50-14 win over Arkansas, the Trojans have been held to under 30 points in their other two games. I'm not too concerned about that because Nebraska and Arizona are very good defensively and USC still managed to score 20 points or more in both games. I am very aware that superstar WE Dwayne Jarrett is going to miss this game but with the depth the USC Trojans have at every single position, I have no doubt that the next guy in line is just as ready to step up. WR Patrick Turner is his replacement and he is a 6'5 player with great hands who was also a supestar in High School (which means this is his big chance to show the world what he can do). In the meantime, the Trojans hope Iowa can help them out this week by beating Ohio State which would immediately make the Trojans #1 in the polls next week if they can win this game here. The last five times USC played here in Pullman, Washington, they scored 29, 42, 31, 27 and 42 points which pretty much tells me that they are good for at elast 34 points in this game. They have also allowed 21.6 points per game played here in the last five and Washington State have an offense that can score some points. The Trojans average 32.7 points per game this season and although Washington State are allowing only 11.7 points per game in their last three, this is by far the best offense they have faced all season. The Trojans average 417.3 total yards per game on 5.5 yards per play in their last three while Washington State have flexed some defensive muscle and allowed only 4.0 yards per play. Impressive yes, butno when you consider their last three opponents were Idaho, Baylor and Stanford. On the ground, RB Emmanuel Moody has led the way and the Trojans average 178.7 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry this season. Washington State have not been tested on the ground and currently allow only 33.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games. Look for USC's strong rushing attack to crush those numbers and open things up in the air. QB John David Booty is completing 64.9% of his passes this season and is passing for 6.3 yards per pass attempt. Washington State have been good to this point but are allowing 5.8 yards per pass attempt in their last three games (again it was against weak opponents) and the USC offensive line will prove to be too big and too tough for Washington State to generate the kind of pressure they want to. Make no mistake about it, Washington State have a much better defense than last year's 31.5 points per game allowed. However, the excitement will be too much and USC will finally find their offensive groove as several of their young players are going to step things up and make some huge plays. It's tough to lose a guy like Dwayne Jarett but as I mentioned earlier, the Trojans are very deep at every position and for every injury they have, there is one special player sitting in the on-deck circle waiting to make his big impact. Remember when Reggie Bush came in for Lendale White and was a virtual nobody? Well we should welcome Patrick Turner to the squad in a big way and Booty is sure to find him in the endzone a few times in this game. I like USC to score their usual big points and assure that this thing goes OVER by the time we hit the fourth quarter.
The Washington State Cougars don't suck but they aren't that good either. I can't say they suck and I can't say they won't give USC problems early on in the game because the Cougars are coming off three impressive wins over mediocre opponents which tells me that they are a focused team. I don't mean that they can come close to beating USC in this game so don't go betting on the Cougars to cover but I mean more that they can definitely put more points on the board than Arizona did against the Trojans last week or that anyone has all year for that matter. Okay maybe not but regardless, it will be their point total (being 7 or 20 points) that should help put this total way over. We all remember the game in Los Angeles last year where the Cougars allowed 745 yards of offense to USC and although we won't see that happen again, the Cougars don't stand a chance of playing small ball against this USC offense. If the Cougars want any shot at winning this game they have to be the ones putting big numbers on the board and making USC match them score for score. If they think they can win a defensive battle, they are going to get blown out and they can forget about covering the spread. In their only home game of the season, the Cougars scored 56 points against Idaho. In their last three games they average 36.3 points per game on a whopping 480.3 total yards of offense per game on 6.5 yards per play (that might be the best in the Nation over the last three games). USC's defense is stout but they tend to allow more points on the road. They are allowing only 9.0 points per game this season on 217.3 total yards per game which is impressive but can it hold up all year? The Trojans are playing their second straight road game and injuries are starting to pile up on the defensive side of things. On the ground, the Cougars have 3 RB's capable of rushing for 100 yards + every game and that should give USC some problems. The Cougars average 211.7 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry over their last three games. USC have done a great job against the run so far, allowing only 2.2 yards per carry this season but the triple threat running attack of Washington State could open up some holes for the Cougars and I see them having some big plays on the ground in this one. QB Alex Brink is much improved from his first two seasons as he has passed for 777 yards, six touchdowns and has completed 62.5% of his passes. The Cougars average 8.5 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and with a very good offensive line in front of him and two years of experience, Brink should have some success throwing the long pass and completing big plays. The USC secondary is allowing 6.4 yards per pass attempt this season but they are dangerous and could easily intercept some Brink passes and take them to the house. That's what I like about the OVER. USC either make the big play and return a pick 6 or they allow the long bomb downfield. They are risk takers and that works to our advantage in this game. The atmosphere should have the Cougars pumped up for the game and their dangerous ground attack will have USC respecting them and allowing more yards than usual. I think Washington State can score 20 points in this game but I don't think they have shot at winning the game but ya just never know with the PAC 10. Regardless, this is a shootout and I am getting my OVER.
Trend of the Game: The OVER is 9-0 in Washington State's last nine night games.
USC 42, Washington State 21
Michigan-Minnesota 'OVER' 50.5 (2 Units)
The Michigan Wolverines are coming off a very mediocre game against Wisconsin and it almost looked as if they were holding back on big plays. However, you can't bash the Wisconsin defense who were definitely the best defensive team the Wolverines have seen all year and even then, Michigan managed to score a nice 27 points against a stout defense. They come into this game 4-0 on the season with some big time National Title aspirations if they can go undefeated. I think it may all come down to the finale against Ohio State but if Michigan don't take some other teams more seriously, they are going to get caught sleeping and lose one of these Big 10 games against Michigan State or Iowa. Regardless, Minnesota is on the platter for the Wolverines in this game and Michigan is probably the best ATS road team in Big 10 Conference games which tells me they are going to be up for the task and have another great game. They have not been held to under 27 points all season and Minnesota is a team that can't hold off some of the worst offenses in the NCAA I-A football. The Wolverines have scored 40+ points here in two of their last four visits and if the cycle of points continues, they usually follow up a sub 30 points peformance here with a 40+ point performance which I see happening today. The Wolverines average 349.3 total yards of offense on 5.3 yards per play in their last three games and they average a whopping 38.3 points per game over that same time span. Wow. Minnesota's defense is allowing 23.0 points per game in their last three games and they have also allowed 369.7 total yards per game on 5.6 yards per play in those three games. On the ground, RB Mike Hart should have a huge bounce back game this week after being held to minimal yardage against the Badgers last week. Seeing that Minnesota allow 156.7 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per carry in their last three games, I think it's safe to say that Hart should rush for 100+ yards in this one. Even if Hart doesn't rush for 100 yards, his ability to move the chains will have Minnesota committing to the run game and leaving things open in the air. QB Chad Henne should have a big game as he is completing 64.7% of his passes in the last three games and is averaging 8.3 yards per pass attempt over the same period of time. That's great news because Minnesota's secondary is atrocious and they have allowed their last three QB opponents to complete 64.8% of their passes for a whopping 7.3 yards per pass attempt. Henne is going to have tons of time to find Breaston and Manningham with the deep ball and his WR's really owe for all the drops last week. I expect the air attack to have their best game yet this year which means we might see the Wolverines score something like 45 points in this shootout. Regardless, I think Lloyd Carr feels the need to flex a little bit of muscle after the conservative game he called last week against Wisky and now would be the time to do it with Michigan State coming to Ann Arbour next week in what should be an epic battle. This could be a breakout game for several offensive stars on the Michigan team.
The Minnesota Golden Gophers have one hell of an offense when they want but their defense is pretty damn useless and their defense is the reason why I am going to be on several OVERS this season. The two shutouts they have pitched were against a MAC conference team and against a Temple team that is going to get shutout in 90% of their games this season. I don't see any reason why they wouldn't get blown out of the house in this one. Minnesota have always had problems on the ATS level when it comes to playing against Michigan and like I have said several times before, I don't see why that would change this week. However, Michigan have shown that they are not the best defensive team around and scoring points at home for Minnesota has never been a problem. In their six home games of 2005, they scored at least 31 points in each game and in their only home game this year, they ended up scoring 62 points. In the last three seasons, there are only two games where Minnesota was held to under 30 points at home and that is pretty damn impressive. That would mean that they have scored 30+ points in 18 of their last 20 home games. Minnesota is averaging 33.3 points per game in their last three games and they have done it on 407.0 total yards per game and an impressive 5.9 yards per play. Michigan's defense on the other hand is allowing 17.0 points per game in their last three outings and they have done it on allowing only 232.3 total yards of offense per game and 3.6 yards per play. Well that's about to change for this defense. On the ground, the Gophers average 195.0 rushing yards per game over their last three games and that came on 4.8 yards per carry. I know Michigan have one of the best run defenses in the Country but can their numbers get any better than allowing only 10.7 rushing yards per game in their last three? Not really. I remember the game last year in Ann Arbour where the Gophers rushed for 264 total yards. In the air, QB Bryan Cupito has been outstanding passing for 742 total yards, completing 62.0% of his passes and throwing 7 touchdown passes. Over the last three games he is averaging 7.5 yards per pass attempt and should have a good game against a Michigan defense that has been stout but are bound to have a letdown game at some point in time. The Wolverines allow only 5.1 yards per pass attempt in their last three, have a great pass rush defense but are going to have to change their ways against a team that can really run the football. With such a good rushing attack, the Wolverines will make themselves vulnerable to the long bomb and Cupito has shown in the past that he can make some big passing plays. He has two Senior WR's (well Spaeth is a Tight End) in Logan Payne and Matt Spaeth and both players have combined to catch six of Cupito's seven TD passes this season. Payne has outstanding speed on the deep ball and look for him to make at least 2-3 huge catches on third down. Minnesota doesn't have to come close to winning but they need to score their usual 30+ points at home and the OVER should be a cetainty. I have no doubts that the game will be high paced and we should see tons of points by the time we hit the half. This is Cupito and Payne's last chances at beating Michigan and I am sure they would love to end things with a bang. I don't see it happening but ya never know and all I care about are the points.
Trend of the Game: The OVER is 9-0 in Minnesota's last nine games as a home underdog.
Michigan 37, Minnesota 31
UTEP Miners -16.5 (5 Units) ***ATS PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The New Mexico State Aggies are not only bad but they are downright brutal. I don't really care that they blew out Texas Southern by 34 points in their last game because there is no difference between what they did in that game and what this team has done the last 4-5 years. The bottom lines remains that Nex Mexico State was 0-12 last year and even though they have 2 wins in Non-Lined games against I-AA teams this season, they should still suck ass against Division I-A teams. It is a know fact that the Aggies don't play well coming off a BYE week as they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games coming off that BYE week. Sure the extra time to prepare for UTEP should really help these guys but they got smoked the last time they played and they are going to get smoked this game as well. New Mexico State are supposed to be having a turnaround year and although I don't doubt that they can win more games this season, this is the wrong spot for them and the line in this game is a big mistake by Vegas oddsmakers. The Aggies are not used to playing on artificial turf (they have played on grass in all their games this season) and are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 artificial turf games. In their three games this season, the Aggies are averaging 35.3 points per game but you have to understand that they have played against two I-AA teams and those numbers come from those blowouts. The Aggies average 522.3 total yards of offense per game on 6.3 yards per play which is #3 in the Country but they have yet to face a good defensive team and their level of intensity won't be up to par with UTEP's defense. The Miners have allowed an out of character 30.3 points per game in their last three but are still one of the best defense in CUSA and it's time to show it. No more of this allowing 384.0 total yards per game on 5.5 yards per play. The Aggies don't have a running game whatsoever, averaging only 103.3 rushing yards per game. If you come to El Paso and you don't have a running game, you can forget about winning games or even scoring points. The Miners have allowed only 3.7 yards per carry this season and once they shut down the run game with easy, they can take care of the Aggies in the air. QB Chase Holbrook is familiar with this offense and he has an incredible 1200 passing yards this season with nine touchdown passes. Well are you ready for the letdown big boy? UTEP are coming to be sending a crazy pass rush to Holbrook in this game it will be interesting to see how he reacts. He has been sacked 3.7 times per game, does not have an Offensive Line that can protect him and UTEP pass rush has not been as good as it should be up to this point. Expect the Miners to send the house to Holbrook at times creating turnovers and getting good field position. The Miners do average 1.3 interceptions in their games this season and have some underrated CB's that are going to benefit from the intensified pass rush of the LB unit. New Mexico State has big time fumbling problems as they have fumbled 3.3 times per game this season and have lost at least 3.0 fumbles per game. Wow...that's incredible and UTEP should have a field day blowing these clowns out and creating several fumbles that should set them up for some big points. I have all the confidence in the world that New Mexico State come nowhere near what they have done in their first two games and this pissed off UTEP team is going to absolutely trash the Aggies.
The UTEP Miners were everyone's big time play last week but let me tell you guys something, Nex Mexico made them look like a team starting a bunch of freshman. They were favored by 9.5 points and ended getting blown out by 13 points. Well let me tell you that team is pissed off, their fans are pissed off, Mike Price is pissed and I wouldn't want to be UTEP's opponent this week when they come out guns blazing and arms swinging. This is a team with a bunch of Senior players on offense who can score 45 points on any given night but who sometimes let their heads get in the way of big wins. They are now barely 1-2 on the season but come into a great spot to play the Aggies. Sure the Miners are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games against New Mexico State but did I mention that the two teams have scored an average of 66 points per game in their last five meetings and if this thing is another shootout, the Miners will definitely cover the spread. This was supposed to be the year that Mike Price and his boys win about 10 games for the first time in who knows how long and looking at their schedule and reading some of the stuff from this past week, Price has told his team and made them believe that this game is the beginning of their new season. Their remaning opponents are all beatable and they can finish the year on a 9-0 run to get that 10 win season like they had wanted before the season started. The Miners have scored 27.3 points per game this season so things are definitely clicking on offense. They have also averaged 326.3 total yards of offense per game on 5.3 yards per play but that was against some pretty good defensive teams. On the ground is where the Miners have to pick things up. RB Marcus Thomas needs to have a breakout game. Thomas has less than 200 rushing yards on the season and is averaging only 2.5 yards per carry (he averaged 5.3 last year). He is a much more powerful back this season who has to learn to use his new size to his advantage. Well the time is now. I know Nex Mexico State allow only 3.4 yards per carry and less than 84.0 rushing yards per game but once again that is against I-AA teams. Thomas should have a huge game. QB Jordan Palmer has been the reason for the two losses this season, throwing six interceptions. However, Palmer is still a very good QB and this should be his best game of the season. He is completing 68.4% of his passes this season and apart from the INT's has played very well. He is averaging 6.8 yards per pass attempt but once again, he needs to be smart about the way he plays and he needs to cut down on the INT's and boneheaded mistakes. The Nex Mexico State defense is allowing 7.0 yards per pass attempt this season and although they generated good pass rush pressure against I-AA teams, the UTEP offensive line is good and will give Palmer the time he needs to find his receivers. What I really like about UTEP is that apart from the interceptions, they have not turned the ball over via fumbles and in games like this, they should crush New Mexico State in the turnover battle. Palmer is going to have a very good bounce back game in this one and I see the Miners winning huge to start their brand new season. In what should be a makeup for their disaster last week, the Miners are going to bring home the bacon for the third time this season as people seem to forget that they are 2-1 ATS and almost beat Texas Tech. Play of the Week is on the Miners. There are 29 seniors on this team and that means a lot when bouncing back from a big loss. That is a huge amount when it comes to experience and UTEP should win this in a blowout.
Trend of the Game: New Mexico State is 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.
UTEP 47, Nex Mexico State 17
RECAP:
Southern Miss-UCF 'Over' 46.5 LOSS
Auburn-South Carolina 'Over' 37
Rutgers -3.5
Wisconsin -11
Tennessee-Memphis 'Over' 44.5 ***O/U POW***
LSU -32
New Mexico-Air Force 'Over' 50
Akron-Kent State 'Under' 42
Texas Tech-Texas A&M 'Under' 57.5
Central Michigan +6.5
Arkansas State-Florida International 'Under' 45
Clemson -33
USC-Washington State 'Over' 62
Michigan-Minnesota 'Over' 50.5
UTEP -16.5 ***ATS POW***
Good Luck to all this week!
:cheers:
2006 CFB ATS Record: 17-15-2 ATS (+3.50)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 7-2 (+5.30 Units)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 0-1 (-5.50 units)
Week 1: 8-10
Week 2: 7-3
Week 3: 5-2
Week 4: 4-1-2
This Week: 0-1 (with picks pending)
16-7-2 the last 4 weeks
Things are starting to really pick up for me in College Ball. I usually have about 7-8 plays per week but this is one of the juiciest looking cards I have seen all year and I am betting on 16 games this week. I am going to drop a lot of one unit plays in order to play more games and I hope to win at least 13-14 games out of the 16. Good luck to all who follow and please keep in mind that I post information in order to help others.
***I have hedged out of my BYU-TCU 'Over' because the status of QB John Beck is not known.
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Thursday, September 28
Auburn-South Carolina 'OVER' 37 (2 Units)
Alright so I am betting on my third total of the week as well as my third OVER of the week and as improbable as this seems, I don't really care because nobody is Vegas is saying that sequences don't exist and this might be my version of hitting three straight on the roulette table. Whatever. Auburn come into this game off a rather leisurely win over the Buffalo Bulls on Saturday as they cruised to a 38-7 win. They lost the cash on the ATS level but that was pretty much an indication that they were saving everything they had for this South Carolina game which is important because it leads the Tigers into three straight home games. The Florida game is not until two weeks from now so the Tigers can concentrate on pounding the Cocks (uh...) as much as they want in this game. Apart from the LSU game where Auburn managed only 7 points but still got the win, the Tigers have been on a tear this season and they have been scoring more than 30 points per game. With so many senior players back on the offensive side of things, this is an Auburn team that should score more than the 32.2 points per game they managed last season. In their last three games, Auburn have scored 29.8 points per game and are averaging 367.0 total yards of offense on a whopping 6.1 yards per play. They are up against a South Carolina defense that is allowing 11 points per game over their last three but that have faced three teams that won't score more than 20 points per game this year. The Cocks are allowing 286.5 total yards on 4.6 yards per play in those games but they should get torched in this one. On the ground, this is payback time for RB Kenny Irons because he transferred from SC for lack of playing time. Irons and the Tigers average 184.3 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry over their last three games and Irons should run for 200+ yards in this game. I say that because South Carolina is allowing 176.0 rushing yards per game over their last three on 4.2 yards per carry. Irons is going to explode in this one. In the air, QB Brandon Cox has completed 63.5% of his passes over the last three games for 8.6 yards per pass attempt. I know SC allows only 5.5 yards per pass attempt over their last three but with Irons tearing things up on the ground, Cox is going to have a field day against the SC secondary. South Carolina don't have much of a pass rush and I don't see how they can keep Auburn from scoring 30 points. Auburn is very good at taking care of the ball, they rarely fumble and Tuberville has stressed the importance of winning this game big. I say Auburn is going to do most of the dirtywork for the OVER in this game and they should score the 30 points I have been talking about.
South Carolina were big time moneymakers for me in their last game because I had cash on the OVER and the Cocks came out with 45-6 win over Florida Atlantic. It was a sweet total to bet on and now that the Cocks are the underdog, the total has been lowered by 4 points. I don't know what to think of this Spurrier offense. Even though they did put up 45 points in that game and have 72 points in their last two games, I am not convinced that they can run an effective gameflow. I mean Georgia walked in here two weeks ago and completely shut these guys out 18-0. Auburn is much better than Georgia defensively so there is that danger of getting shut out again but I don't see that happening. South Carolina score 7 points in their 38-7 road loss to Auburn last year and this is somewhat of a revenge game where I see the score being a lot closer. Not to say Auburn won't score points but it's more like South Carolina will find a way to score points and keep things close until Auburn pulls away late in the game. Steve Spurrier wants his guys to be a high powered offense but apart from jump balls tossed to Sidney Rice, the Gamecocks don't have much to speak of on offense. They are averaging 21.8 points per game over their last three and that is on 344.3 total yards of offense on 5.8 yards per play. Not too bad actually. However, Auburn is allowing only 3.9 yards per play in their last three games and Spurrier is really going to have to unleash some of his trick plays for SC to score 14 or more. This kind of reminds me of the Bama home game for SC last year where they came out of their offensive shells and socred 14 points while allowing 37. This could be the same type of game and that would make me happy. You can forget about the run game because RB Mike Davis is only good for a few yards per carry and Auburn is very stout against the run allowing only 2.7 yards per carry. This will all come down to QB's Blake Mitchell and Syvelle Newton (not sure who is starting). They need to find a way to move the ball against Auburn's secondary. The Cocks have a powerful passing attack mainly because of Rice's ability to go deep and make some big plays. They are averaging 7.9 yards per pass attempt over their last three games and get to face a tough Auburn defense that allows only 5.1 yards per pass attempt over their last three. The line is going to have to be tough in this game because Auburn can come at you hard. Newton has not thrown many picks the last three weeks and Auburn have not picked off many passes in their last three games. I do see South Carlina fumbling the ball deep in their zone a few times which should result in Auburn points and more South Carolina problems. What those turnovers also do is tire the Auburn defense enough that they start getting lazy and should give up some points by the time this is all said and done. The OVER might not hit until late but I like my chances on a very very low number that should be a few points up.
Trend of the Game: The OVER is 18-3 in Auburn's last 21 games that follow a 200+ rushing yards performance.
Auburn 34, South Carolina 10
Friday, September 29
Rutgers Scarlet Knights -3.5 (1 Unit)
Since those of you who are going to be betting on this game tonight probably bet on the Tuesday night game and possibly got burned by taking Southern Mississippi...this is the public favored road fav that is going to take home the cash this week. Forget about Southern Miss because that game is too risky and UCF has a bunch of experienced guys on their sideline. The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 4-0 to kick off the year and they managed to make their way into the TOP 25 for the first since 1976 or something like that. The New Jersey Univsersity as most like to call them are the real deal and they are using their first Bowl appearance in 27 years last year to their advantage. The reason the line is so low is because Rutgers are going to be without WR Sean Tucker who broke his ankle in last week's 56-7 win over Howard. This is still an exciting bunch of receivers on this team and I am looking for some of the other guys to carry the load for Tucker. Rutgers are 2-0-1 ATS this season and are looking like they are going to make a run for the Big East title. Sure that's almost impossible to do with Louisville and West Virginia on the schedule but you never know what Greg Schiano and his guys are capable of. Over their last three games, the Scarlet Knights are averaging 37.7 points per game and average 322.7 total yards of offense per game on 5.1 yards per play. That's nothing spectacular but they get the job done regardless. South Florida's defense is very underrated I believe but they have some weak spots. Sure they allow only 337.7 total yards per game over their last three games but Rutgers is a very smart team. Rutgers have a running game that USF has yet to see this season as RB Raymell Rice has 604 rushing yards after only four games and he leads the nation with 9 rushing touchdowns. Wow. How about FB Brian Leonard who has 116 yards on the year and two touchdowns? Talk about guys who can move the chains and win the time of possession game for you. They average 199.3 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry over their last three games and will be looking to make a hole in a USF run defense allowing less than 100 rushing yards per game over their last three games. QB Mike Teel has not exactly played well which is why Rutgers has to run the ball a lot more than they would like. Teel has thrown two touchdowns and five interceptions but has been better in his last three games. I see Teel having some success passing as the Knights average 6.4 yards per pass attempt over their last three games while USF is allowing 6.3 yards per pass attempt over their last three. Teel is going to have tons of time and tons of room to make plays and hopefully he is jacked for this one and wants to look good on National TV. The best part about Rutgers is that with Rice running the ball the way he has, Brian Leonard is almost always open off a block and he is capable of some big time yardage of a screen or dump pass. Look for that in this game because nobody has been able to stop it and I don't think USF have the personel to make a stop on that either. TE Clark Harris can catch any ball you throw his way and I look for him to have a huge game as well as Teel looks for big easy targets up the middle. It's time for Rutgers to prove they belong in the TOP 25 and they should do it on a National stage today. This is also a revenge game for the Scarlet Knights who lost 45-31 to South Florida at home last season.
The South Florida Bulls are a team to watchout for over the next 3-4 years but for now they will have to take a back seat to teams like Rutgers and other big powerhouses in the Big East. We all remember the game last year when USF walked into New Brunswick and demolished Rutgers to the point of a blowout win. Well back then Pat Julmiste was the QB for the Bulls and he was outstanding in that game playing a mistake free four quarters which was almost always unsual for him. However, this year, Julmiste is the backup on this team, Rutgers is about 10 times better than last year and Matt Grothe is the new QB for the Bulls. Oh my how things have changed. South Florida scored 28 points off six Rutgers turnovers last year and unless that happens again today, I don't think the Bulls can keep the same level of intensity and gameplay as the much better Scarlet Knights. The Bulls are 1-4 ATS the last two seasons when pegged as the home underdog and I am fading them to the bank one more time in a situation where Rutgers wants revenge and they want it against somewhat of a different USF team than last year. The Bulls are averaging 17.3 points per game over their last three games while the Rutgers defense has been just outstanding allowing 4.7 points per game over that same period of time. The Bulls average 346.0 total yards of offense on 5.3 yards per play over their last three but have their hands full in this one against a Rutgers defense that yields only 139.0 total yards of offense for 2.6 yards per play over their last three games. That's incredible stuff. On the ground, USF don't have much of a rushing attack as they average only 111.7 rushing yards per game over their last three on 3.3 yards per carry. Doesn't really matter because Rutgers have allowed 36.0 rushing yards per game over their last three and USF is going to be forced to air the ball out. Grothe has done a great job so far but he is a rookie/frosh playing on National TV for the first time and nerves are going to kick in. He is passing for 7.5 yards per pass attempt over his last three games but Rutgers is allowing opposing QB's to complete only 43.4% of their passes over the last three games and allowing only 4.1 yards per pass attempt. This is going to be a rough one for South Florida. Rutgers average 1.7 interceptions per game over their last three and with the pressure they bring to Grothe, he will surely add to his total of 5 interceptions on the season. This time around it will be Rutgers that score all the points off USF turnovers and like I said many times before, all the fundamental factors of this game point towards a Rutgers win. Seeing that this is a public play, I am laying only one unit. The Bulls are coming off a road loss to Kansas on the weekend and although they are 3-1 on the season, Rutgers is very far from being on the same level as McNeese State, FIU and Central Florida (the three wins by USF). End of story...Rutgers wins and covers.
Trend of the Game: South Florida is 0-6 ATS in their last six games as underdogs of 3.5-10 points.
Rutgers 28, South Florida 17
Saturday, September 30
Wisconsin Badgers -11 (1 Unit)
I think it's pretty much safe to say that the Wisconsin Badgers are a team that has made me some mad cash this season and they are the team I have bet on the most. I was on them 2-3 times already this season and I can't say they have lost me any cash. Well it's time to hop back on the Wisky train for another week and see how things go. The Badgers are 2-0-1 ATS this season which is what my record is betting on them. The Badgers are coming off a tough loss at Michigan and although they did all they good in that game, I still feel that Bielema needs to let this offense loose a little bit more than he has. He ran the Vanilla offense against SDTS a few weeks back (thanks Pags) and he seem to run it in the 2nd half of the Michigan game too. The difference between the two games was that it worked against a useless SDST team but Michigan was smart enough to put things together and blow away the Badgers in the second half of that game. Bielema has had the guys practicing hard all week in preparation for this game because this is a game they should definitely not lose if they want to contend in the BIG 10. In their last three games, Wisky is averaging a decent 20.3 points per game on 318.7 total yards of offense and 4.7 yards per play. Although that is nothing spectacular, Indiana's defense is allowing 24.0 points per game over their last three games and are allowing 329.0 total yards per game on 5.2 yards per play. On the ground is where the Badgers have to win the game and demolish Indiana. Freshman RB PJ Hill is a monster. He has rushed for 469 yards this season and the team is averaging 136.0 rushing yards per game over their last three for 3.7 yards per carry. Well that should all change today as Indiana is allowing a whopping 181.3 rushing yards per game over their last three games on 4.4 yards per carry and Hill should have another 100+ yard game. In the air, QB John Stocco needs to use this game to re-connect with his very young WR's. The connection has not been there this year. Expect Stocco to have his best game of the season as he is going up against an Indiana defense that is allowing 6.7 yards per pass attempt over their last three games and that is allowing opposing QB's too much room for success. Stocco has been good when it comes to making the right decision when under pressure. This is a good chance for Wisconsin's offense to make a statement and show that they are better than the 13.5 points per game they have averaged the last two games. With Northwestern on deck (an easy win), the Badgers need to make sure they have a big time game and head into that game with a 1-1 conference record. I know their ATS record is pathetic against Indiana but this number is too low and I just don't see how the Badgers don't score at least 24+ points.
Did you guys know that Indiana is 15-33 ATS in their last 48 BIG 10 Conference games? Well that only starts things when it comes to this team. The Hoosiers are 2-2 on the season but have lost games to I-AA Southern Illinois and Connecticut in their last two and I don't see how they could come close to winning this game. Sure you could argue that Big 10 openers are always big for teams like Indiana but seeing that the Hoosiers have the even more pathetic Fighting Illini on deck next week, they might give it all they have knowing they are not going to win this game. Now Indiana did win as a 12.5 point underdog at home against Wisconsin back in 2002 so yeah there is that chance the Hoosiers do have a great deal of confidence coming into this thing but once again, I don't see them matching well at all against Wisconsin and their lack of experience on defense is going to cost them big time. This is Indiana's fourth home game of the season already and the Hoosiers should be pumped up to play Wisky. However, they have looked brutal in their last two games and I don't see what would be different in this one. The Hoosiers do have 19.7 points per game in their last three but they have done that on only 296.3 total yards of offense per game on only 4.3 yards per play. Even after playing against Michigan, Wisconsin's defense is allowing only 12.3 points per game over their last three and that was done on only 227.7 total yards per game and 3.8 yards per play. Safe enough to say that this defense is pretty damn stout (well Bielema is a pure defense kind of guy). The Hoosiers need a rushing attack to have any success in this game and rushing attack they don't have. RB Demetrius McRay leads the team with 108 rushing yards. Huh? As a team, the Hoosiers run for only 82.7 yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry over their last three games and that's bad news because Wisconsin's defense is allowing only 68.0 rushing yards per game on 2.3 yards per carry over their last three games. Now that is solid. In the air, QB Blake Powers should get the start in this game but his ratio is 1-2 and he has completed only 51.7% of his passes. Between him and Kellen Lewis, the Hoosiers have completed only 47.8% of their passes over the last three games and that's for 5.6 yards per pass attempt. They have thrown 1.3 interceptions per game over the last three. Wisconsin's pass defense is allowing only 5.1 yards per pass attempt over their last three games and they have been able to intercept six passes over the same period of time. Wisconsin is going to bring a lot of pressure in this game and regardless who the QB is for Indiana, he is going to make mistakes and put his team in bad situations. Wisconsin is going to come out hard in this game unlike in 2002 when they walked in here after a loss at home to Penn State. Indiana is horrendous as a home underdog and I have absolutely no problem fading them in this game with their putrid offense. As you can see by my trend below, September is always the time to bet the Badgers.
Trend of the Game: Wisconsin is 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 September games.
Wisconsin 34, Indiana 17
Tennessee-Memphis 'OVER' 44.5 (5 Units) ***O/U PLAY OF THE WEEK***
This is the kind of game I was talking about last time for those of you who followed me on the Tulane-LSU 'OVER' last week. This is yet another State rivalry and regardless of where the two teams are ranked and regardless of what has happened to either team this season, this is going to be a high scoring game. I say that because you have to understand that when two in-state teams play against each other, several players on both teams know each other from High School and they get really jacked up to play against their old teammates and/or friends. This is huge. Tennessee is hitting the road for the first time this season after coming away with a 3-1 record to kick off the season. They were only 5-6 last season and are obviously a much improved team. In theory, they should really be 4-0 at this point but some late blunders against Florida has them pegged down with a loss and has them coming into this game having to prepare for a big game in Georgia next week. Tennessee is 19-1 lifetime against Memphis but have never covered the spread (0-6 ATS) and that's another way of telling that this game is going to have a lot of points and is going to be a lot closer than we think. Tennessee comes into this game averaging 28.0 points per game in their last three games. They are also averaging a whopping 355.3 total yards per game on 6.3 yards per play over that same period of time. What you have to love about that is that Memphis is allowing 25.7 points per game over their last three and they have allowed 333.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.5 yards per play over those same three games. On the ground, Tennessee have had problems running the ball but RB Lamarcus Coker (highly touted out of high school) had a breakout game last time against Marshall and is averaging 10.5 yards per carry. This kind has explosive speed. However, the Vols might have RB Adrian Foster back for this one and they need it because they average only 81.3 rushing yards per game over their last three on 3.1 yards per carry. Foster and/or Coker should both have big games because Memphis is horrendous against the run allowing 185.0 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry over their last three games. Ouch. In the air, QB Erik Ainge has been outstanding completing 67.4% of his passes over the last three games for a whopping 9.2 yards per pass attempt. He has great line protection will have tons of time to make big plays because Memphis doesn't have a pass rush to speak of. Also, the Tigers are allowing 6.3 yards per pass attempt over their last three games and once Tennessee starts running the ball effectively and for some big yardage, the passing game is going to be wide open and the countless Tennessee touchdowns are going to start early in this one. This is the first road game of the season for Fulmer's boys and he is going to want to win big knowing that some of his guys will try to relax and take it easy against their old buddies. Tennessee will score big time in this one.
The Memphis Tigers returned only 13 starters this season and although we all expected them to lose two of their first three games, I guess you could say that their offense has played a lot better than some of us would have expected. Apart from losing superstar RB DeAngelo Williams, the Tigers have actually moved a few notches up at all other positions and I see them coming out flying in this game and putting up some nice points. The Tigers have not played since their loss at East Carolina back on September 16 and they have had more than 10 days to prepare their attempt on what many would consider the biggest upset of the season if Tommy West can pull this thing off. Like I said when talking about the Vols, several players on this Memphis team know a bunch of the guys on Tennessee and having had an entire two weeks to prepare for this and go over strategy with the coaching staff, you better believe that Memphis is going to be ready for a dog fight. You probably think I'm crazy but take a look at some of the things they have done. Like I said, apart from losing Williams, they have actually gotten better on offense and should average more than 27.2 points per game last year. The Tigers are averaging 26.0 points per game so far this season and they have done that on an impressive 397.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play. As well as Tennessee has played (all at home), they have allowed 19.3 points per game over their last three games and done so on 321.3 total yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. Safe enought to say that Memphis can score some points in this game. On the ground, RB Jason Doss has some big shoes to fill and the Tigers are averaging only 114.3 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry. Tennessee's run defense is pretty good and they are allowing only 3.8 yards per carry over their last three games. Don't expect much on the ground but that's a good thing because the clock won't run much. In the air, QB Martin Hankins has been both very good and very bad. Hankins is a guy that passed for 7777 yards at SE Louisiana University the last two years (65 touchdowns). He is completing 62.7% of his passes this year for six touchdowns and 770 passing yards but he has thrown six interceptions. He is passing for 7.8 yards per pass attempt and has the pleasure of facing a very suspect Tennessee secondary that is allowing a whopping 9.1 yards per pass attempt over their last three games and that have picked off only two passes. Memphis has a good offensive line and the coaches have worked hard with Hankins this week to avoid those costly turnovers. Like I said before, Tennessee's defense has been very suspect at times and seeing that Memphis have an improved offense, they should be able to put up enough points to keep this close and easily put the total OVER.
Trend of the Game: The OVER is 7-0 in Memphis' last seven games that follow a game where they passed for 280+ yards.
Tennessee 42, Memphis 32
LSU Tigers -32 (1 Unit)
Uh oh...I hope Sylvester Croom and his boys didn't happen to catch a glimpse of last Saturday's LSU game against Tulane because if they did, they may not want to show up for this one. Many had talked about LSU going easy on Tulane because of the whole Katrina thing and all but the Tigers blew them out by 42 points and I don't know how Mississippi State is going to avoid having the exact same thing happen to them. Mississippi State are playing their second straight road game in this one and they are coming off a very surprising 16-10 win over UAB...a game where they were the 9.5 point underdogs. That was quite possibly the shocker of the week in Week 4 and how quickly people forget what Mississippi State did the first three weeks of the season. The Bulldogs failed to score a single point against South Carolina's defense (pathetic) and they failed to score a single point against Auburn's defense (which held LSU to only three points). What I am trying to get to here is that LSU's defense is just as solid as Auburn's, if not better and there is no chance in hell that Mississippi State will have any luck moving the ball in this game. None whatsoever. Get this, Mississippi State is 1-13 ATS in their last 14 games against LSU and the Bulldogs have lost the last five games against them by an average of 35 points. Offensively, the Bulldogs average only 15.0 points per game over their last three and they did so by averaging only 264.0 total yards per game on 4.1 yards per play. No points for them today as LSU is allowing only 188.3 total yards of offense per game over their last three and they have allowed only 5.7 points per game over that same period of time. The Tigers have yet to pitch a shutout this season but it's coming. On the ground, Mississippi State do average 114.3 rushing yards per game over their last three on 3.1 yards per carry but they run too much. LSU allows only 73.0 rushing yards per game over their last three on 2.3 yards per carry. In the air, QB Tray Rutland is going to get eaten alive in this game. He is a freshman who was not supposed to start this year but injuries gave him a chance. He is completing only 43.5% of his passes and has thrown three interceptions and no touchdowns. Yikes. Can you imagine what will be going through Rutland's mind when the LSU defense come at him? The Tigers are allowing oppsing QB's to complete only 44.3% of their passes over the last three games for only 3.9 yards per pass attempt. They bring a very heavy pass rush and have six interceptions in the last three games. Seeing that they held a Senior Tulane QB in check last week, they are going to maul this Rutland kid and the blowout is going to start pretty damn early.
The LSU Tigers had their fun last week and they probably wished that the Florida game could be played right here, right now. Not happening. Now I know a lot of people are going to stay away from LSU in this game because they have Florida on deck but I remember the 2004 game against the Bulldogs where the Tigers won 51-0 even though they had #3 Georgia on deck the following week. It didn't matter because Saban and the boys poored it on for a big win. LSU is now 3-0 ATS at home this season with big wins over UL Lafayette, Arizona and Tulane last week. They have covered spreads of 17 or more points in each of those games and this game should be no different. Like I said before, LSU is 13-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings with the Bulldogs and for whatever reason, they have always taken pleasure in knocking the teeth right out of Mississippi State. The last five times the teams have met, LSU has won by a combined total of 202-26 and they will definitely add to that nice total today. Les Miles has talked about the importance of staying focused even though Florida does stand in the on-deck circle. LSU are averaging 32.3 points per game over their last three games and they have done it on 381.7 total yards of offense per game and 6.3 yards per play. Now that is some good stuff considering the Auburn game is included in those stats. Mississippi State's defense is allowing 25.5 points per game over their last three games and that was against Auburn, Tulane and UAB. Ouch again. They are allowing 341.7 total yards per game on 5.5 yards per carry over their last three and I expect the bad times to continue in this game. On the ground, RB Charles Scott has been outstanding this season and the Tigers are averaging 148.3 rushing yards per game over their last three games on 4.8 yards per carry. Mississippi State have done a nice job stopping the run and allowing only 111.3 rushing yards per game over their last three but today their luck runs out. Charles can have a mediocre game and things will still be open for QB JeMarcus Russell to make big plays. The Tigers are completing 61.4% of their passes over the last three games for 8.0 yards per pass attempt. The line has allowed only two sacks over that same period of time. Mississippi State's defense is allowing their last three opposing QB's to complete 61.0% of their passes for an incredible 8.4 yards per pass attempt. This game is going to get ugly fast because Russell is going to air it out all day and all night and even if Matt Flynn comes in for the fourth quarter, he is going to want to pad his stats and make things look even prettier for the Florida game. There is no doubt in my mind that LSU can win this game by 40+ points and the oddsmakers have not learned from past meetings that you don't make LSU an underdog of less than 40 points when they play against little minnow teams like Mississippi State. I am calling for a shutout/blowout.
Trend of the Game: Mississippi State is 0-9 ATS in their last nine games on Grass.
LSU 50, Mississippi State 0
New Mexico-Air Force 'OVER' 50 (1 Unit)
The New Mexico Lobs have slowly but surely started to pick things up this season. This is no longer a run happy team like we have most of Rocky Long's coaching career here at Nex Mexico. The Lobos are now a pass first team and that should definitely help in games that have high scoring potential like this one. New Mexico showed some seriously nice signs of developping that passing game in their last three outings. They are coming off their most impressive win in a long time as they beat the heavily public favored UTEP Miners by a score of 26-13 and they carry a lot of momentum in this big time rivalry against Air Force. The Lobos finished their 2005 season with a 6-5 record but were somehow overlooked for a Bowl Game and were one of the only teams left without an invitation but with bowl eligibility. That pissed off a lot of people on the New Mexico side of things and they have since comeback and are now 2-2. The Lobos have lost two straight games to Air Force, getting blown out in their finally last year (costing them then invitation to a Bowl) and losing here in Colorado Springs back in 2004 on a late touchdown by the Falcons. In their last three games, the Lobos are averaging 25.7 points per game and have amassed 305.3 total yards of offense on 5.2 yards per play. That's not bad at all for this pass first offense and things might get better as Air Force have allowed 27.5 points per game this season on 329.0 total yards per game and 6.4 yards per play. On the ground, the Lobos are no longer looking to attack teams with 200+ yards rushing games. They are averaging only 111.7 total yards of rushing per game over their last three on only 3.4 yards per carry but once again, they are a pass first team and should have some big plays. Air Force does not yield yardage on the ground so it's probably a good thing that New Mexico has to pass a lot in this game. In the air, QB Chris Nelson is the main guy right now and he not been impressive accuracy wise but he has thrown six touchdown passes. Nelson does have a good arm and big plays are going to be in the cards for this game. New Mexico is averaging 7.4 yards per pass attempt in their last three games while the Air Force defense has allowed a whopping 10.0 yards per pass attempt. Nelson does not throw many intecerptions which is going to be important in this game if New Mexico is going to match Air Force for each and every one of their scores. It is important that New Mexico keep the attack balanced and Nelson is going to have to make sure he gets the ball to WR Marcus Smith who is a track star with out of sight speed and who has 5 touchdowns this season. Also available is WR Travis Brown who has great across the field power and speed. The Lobos will definitely score their fair share of points in this one.
The Air Force Falcons have for whatever reason only played two games this season and they have no excuse to come out flat or anything like that. The Falcons were impressive in both their games so far this season and I wouldn't be surprised if they impressed us with another big win in this game. Whatever happens to Deberry's boys in this game, I don't personally care because I would rather see them score tons of points. In their last five games hosting New Mexico, the Falcons have scored 35.6 points per game and have always been the ones to start the shootout. I mean why not shoot things out when you are returning only 4 starters on defense and you risk potentially losing games if you don't have your offense slinging mud from the opening kickoff? What I really like is that the Falcons came within an extra point of going to overtime and possibly beating Tennessee and last week the came off a BYE week and beat the crap out of a very good Wyoming team in Wyoming. Impressive to say the least but this is what you get from a very balanced rushing attack that gains tons of yards per game and that keeps opposing defense gasping for air more than they have all season. The Falcons are averaging 30.5 points per game this season and they have done it on 387.5 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play. New Mexico's defense is not that good and they have allowed 22.7 points per game in their last three games while allowing 389.7 total yards per game on 5.2 yards per play. Safe enough to say Air Force will score in the 30's. On the ground, the Falcons are averaging 60.5 run plays per game this year and 304.0 total rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry. New Mexico has done a good job stopping the run and holding teams to under 100 yards rushing per game in their last three but their good fortunes end in this game and the Falcons are going to have some huge plays. When QB Shaun Carney decides its time to go to the air, which he does do about 7-8 times per game, he is going to go deep and throw a big trick play. Carney is averaging a nice 10.4 yards per pass attempt and New Mexico's defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete a whopping 67.7% of their passes over the last three games for a big 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Ouch. Carney should have his biggest day of the season in the air and on the ground and once Air Force starts turning small plays into big plays, the floodgates are going to open and we are going to see some huge plays in this game. This is the home opener for the Falcons and it is also HomeComing week which is huge with these military academies. The crowd is going to be wild, the fans are going to make sure this place is loud and even though Navy is coming up next week, Air Force is going to want to flex a little bit of muscles before their academy opening game. Well they have a chance here against a vulnerable New Mexico team that might surprise quite a few by keeping this close and scoring big time points.
Trend of the Game: The OVER is 7-0 in Air Force's last seven games that follow an ATS win.
Air Force 38, New Mexico 28
Akron-Kent State 'UNDER' 42
The Akron Zips come into this game knowing very well that Kent State is going to be a pissed off football team. I say that because it was just last November that Akron beat Kent State on a snowy 11:00am morning game. That was the game that would determine which one of these two teams would be playing in the MAC Conference Title Game against Northern Illinois. Since the Zips won the game and forced a tie with Kent State for the East Division lead, the Zips went through on some tiebreakers and the Kent State Golden Flashes have not forgotten about that. Akron have opened the season with a respectable 2-2 record but when you look at the big picture of things, they should have beat Central Michigan following their NC State win. I guess the two cancel each other out because nobody expected them to beat NC State so a 2-2 record is where everyone saw this team before the season started. Alright. I will remind everyone of this every single time I bet on an UNDER in an Akron game. The Zips lost all their fire power from last year when RB Brett Biggs (1339 yards and 10 TD's, 535 receiving yards and 4 TD's) and WR Domenik Hixon (1210 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns) both graduated. Even with those two guys the team averaged only 23.6 points per game. In their last three games, the Zips have averaged 24.7 points per game on 365.0 total yards of offense and 5.4 yards per play. However, Kent State are returning 9 starters on defense this season and allowing only 11.3 points per game in their last three games. They are allowing only 285.0 total yards per game on 3.8 yards per play over their last three and could be called the MAC's most improved defense. On the ground, RB Dennis Kennedy is out for the game and the Zips average only 93.3 rushing yards per game in their last three. Kent State is allowing 153.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games so the fact that Akron have no proven RB to run the ball is bad news. In the air, QB Luke Getsy is pretty damn good but he is completing only 53.1% of his passes over the last three games and has thrown five interceptions already this season. He averages 8.3 yards per pass attempt in his last three games but Kent State are allowing only 4.2 yards per pass attempt over their last three games and have six interceptions over that same time period. Getsy is definitely going to try and do to much, like he has been all season, and it's going to cost him against a pretty damn good Kent State defense. This is a game where Akron is going to struggle to score points but they might still win a low-scoring game because Kent State are the kings of blowing games.
The Kent State Golden Flashes have impressed everyone with their two big recent wins over Bowling Green and Miami Ohio but can you really say that those two opponents are in the top tier of the MAC teams? Nope. Sure the Flashes came within a missed FG of tying Army and possibly going to overtime where they could come into this game at 3-1 but that didn't happen and what matters is this game right here. The Flashes remember very well what happened to them in Akron at the end of last season and Doug Martin has been talking all week about how this is the game that will determine if the Flashes get into the MAC Title game this season. In all likelyhood it will come down to Kent State making it or missing it by one game again and Martin doesn't want to take any chances so he is going to make sure his guys are ready for this game. In their last four games hosting Akron, the Golden Flashes have not done much on offense and they have managed to score only 12.8 points per game in those meetings. This game is for the Wagon Wheel for those of you who didn't know but don't get too exicted because Kent State are a horrible home team. They average a nice 22.7 points per game in their last three games on 341.3 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play but don't look for that kind of success in this one. Akron have a pretty good defense that has kept them in games all season. They are allowing only 18.0 points per game in their last three and allowing only 289.3 total yards of offense per game on 4.5 yards per play. That is about 10 times better than what Kent State saw when they played against BG and Miami Ohio the last two weeks. On the ground, the Golden Flashes are going to look for success as RB Eugene Jarvis and company have rushed for 182.3 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry in their last three games. The Flashes love running the ball and that should kill a lot of time on the clock. Akron allow only 3.7 yards per carry in their last three games and they should slow down the running game enough to force Kent to throw the ball, something they don't want to do. When they do go to the air, QB Julien Edelman has not been that good, completing 55.7% of his passes but throwing five interceptions and only three touchdowns. In their last three games, the Flashes have passed for 7.1 yards per pass attempt but their luck should run out against Akron who have one of the best secondaries in the country and allow only 5.3 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. They have also picked off 1.3 passes per game in their last three and once they send pressure on the Sophomore QB, he is going to make mistakes and the Zips should be able to force turnovers. I don't see Kent State winning this game. Akron have lost a lot of fire power but they have the better coach and they should win.
Trend of the Game: The UNDER is 7-0 in Kent State's last seven games.
Akron 17, Kent State 14
Texas Tech-Texas A&M 'UNDER' 57.5 (2 Units)
This kind of game might be what you call Sports Gambling suicide if you are like me and want to take the UNDER in a game that could potentially feature 100 points or more like it has in the past but when a total is released and it is almost at 60, you have to pick your spots and pound the UNDER when necessary. Well now is the time to take this UNDER. The Texas Tech Red Raiders and their powerhouse offense roll into College Station this week looking to kick some big time ass. However, are you guys all that convinced that Tech can score big time points on the road like they score at home? Did you see what TCU did to Leach's offense a few weeks back when they held them to only 3 points? That was incredible seeing that Texas Tech had scored in double digits every single game since the 2001 42-7 loss to Texas. Well the streak is over now and although it won't happen again this season, it tells me that Tech's offense is the weakest it has been since the 2000 and 2001 seasons which means that oddsmakers are exagerating and overreacting when they slap such big totals on games between these two teams. The Red Raiders are averaging 34.3 points per game in their last three games which is pretty damn impressive but you have to keep in mind that they scored 62 last week against a I-AA SE Louisiana team. They average 410.0 total yards per game on 6.1 yards per play in their last three games but did I mention that Texas A&M have allowed only 15 points per game in their last three and that their defense is solid returning 7 starters? The Aggies are allowing only 263.0 total yards of offense in their last three and allowing only 4.5 yards per play. The problem I have with Tech this year is that they don't have a rushing attack to rely on. They average only 82.3 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry over their last three which shows me they miss Taurean Henderson and Cody Hodges. That's really good news for the Aggies defense because they allow 135.7 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry over their last three and TT might be forced to run the ball in this one for success. In the air, QB Graham Harrell has been great but this is going to be a test for him. He is completing 65.3% of his passes for 6.8 yards per pass attempt over the last three games but the trouble starts when I tell you that the Aggies secondary is just nasty. They allowed their last three QB opponents to complete only 42.1% of their passes for only 5.0 yards per pass attempt. For such a high total, that's some low numbers. The Aggies also intercept at least one pass in their last three games. I see Texas Tech having problems at times in this game. For this total to go OVER, the Red Raiders would have to score points on almost all their possessions and I don't see that happening after their 3 point debacle at TCU. This is the first time in years that a Senior QB is not running the team and College Station is a place that takes experience to succeed in. The Aggies fans are going to be going crazy and the Red Raiders are going to have enough problems to keep this high total UNDER.
The Texas A&M Aggies are coming off a 5-6 season which is not acceptable by their standards. It was tough on the team, the fans and the school and they have responded by starting the year 4-0 and are ready for their biggest test to date. Did you know that prior to the 2001 season, the Aggies and Texas Tech averaged only 39 points per game in their meetings and that was from 1981 to 2001. Now that both teams are sporting Sophomore QB's instead of Senior QB's like the past 4 years they have met, we are surely going to see another dropoff in the big point games and I have a feeling that oddsmakers have not adjusted to the changes these teams have made. The Aggies are coming off a win over Louisiana Tech that saw them enjoy themselves at the expense of their much weaker opponent. The Aggies have not really faced any team worthy of TOP 50 ranking and the #28 Texas Tech Raiders are going to be a huge challenge for a team that is looking to improve on their 31.2 points per game allowed in 2005. College Station is going to be rocking for this huge rivalry and I expect the fans to have an impact on the final score. The Aggies are averaging 41.3 points per game in their last three games but those were against three garbage teams. They average 448.7 total yards of offense per game on 6.9 yards per play over those three games but have to face a Texas Tech defense that is allowing only 298.3 total yards per game on 4.6 yards per play and only 15.7 points per game over their last three games. On the ground, the Aggies love to run the ball and RB Jovorskie Lane has been their leader. The Aggies average 212.3 rushing yards per game on 5.4 yards per carry but must now face a very good Texas Tech defense that is allowing only 119.3 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry over their last three games. Lane has speed but TT's D-Line is much improved this season and they are some quick big guys. In the air, QB Stephen McGee is quick and he can pass. He has been outstanding this season completing 68.1% of his passes for 820 passing yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions. He is passing for 9.3 yards per pass attempt over the last three games and he should have another fine day of passing the football. The Red Raiders defense allows only 5.7 yards per pass attempt over their last three games and they have been good with pressure, recording an impressive and unprecedented (for them anyways) 2.3 sacks per game over their last three. This is the biggest start of McGee's young career and nerves will factor in to his early struggles which should settle down by the second half. Hopefully by then it will be too late and the UNDER will be nice and safe. With two young QB's going at it we should be good in this one and I don't think we are going to have to sweat things out. As for the Aggies winning or covering this game, I think they can do it. The road team has won only 2 of the last 10 meetings and I expect A&M to be underdogs in this game but they are favored and I like them a lot more when the points are on their side. This is going to be a tough one for McGee looks to be the real deal and we should see a good game but not in your typical TT shootout.
Trend of the Game: The UNDER is 7-0 in Texas Tech's last seven games that follow a game where they allowed 275 total yards or less.
Texas A&M 28, Texas Tech 24
Central Michigan Chippewas +6.5 (2 Units)
The Central Michigan Chippewas come into this game on a two game win streak and to tell you the truth about these guys, they looked pretty damn good in both their losses. In their season opener against Boston College, the Chipps managed to score 24 points and kept the game close before heading out to Ann Arbour and putting up 17 points on what looks to be a very good Michigan defense. This is a big game for Chippewas and the MAC division because if they play like they have the rest of the season, CMU can make a serious case that the MAC is becoming a much better conference. The Chipps beat a very good Akron team at home in Week 3 and are now coming off a sweet 24-17 overtime win over Eastern Michigan last week. That would put the team on an all-time confidence high heading into this SEC Stadium. Interestingly enough, CMU are playing on grass for the first time this season and their track record on grass is not that good. However, this is a different team and things change. The Chipps are 4-0 ATS this season and I still can't believe it seeing that this team was 9-33 ATS the last seven seasons before this. You have to be tough in trenches to compete with SEC teams and CMU is very tough in the trenches. They come in here averaging 21.7 points per game in their last three games on 315.7 total yards of offense and 4.9 yards per play in those games. Kentucky have been decent lately allowing only 15.7 points per game in their last three but two of their opponents were a joke and that would explain things. What tells the real story is that in their last three games, they allow 373.0 total yards per game on a whopping 6.1 yards per play. That's some bad defense. On the ground is where CMU needs to attract attention. RB Ontario Sneed has struggled badly in his sophomore year and has not passed 50 rushing yards in a game this year. Well this is the time to shine boy because Kentucky is allowing 165.0 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry over their last three games and Sneed should have a big time breakout game in this one. This is still the kid that ran for 1065 yards as a freshman last year. Watch out. In the air, it looks like QB Brian Brunner is back in charge. That's probably good because he has completed 69.0% of his passes and has not thrown an INT all season (he missed a few games anyways). Brunner should have a good game because the Chipps average 6.0 yards per pass attempt in their last three games while Kentucky has been torched more times than not and allow 7.7 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. The O-Line is pretty damn good and unless Kentucky can mount some kind of pressure that we haven't seen in past weeks, CMU has a great shot at winning this game and shocking the football world. This is going to be a landmark game for the Chippewas and for the MAC Division and we should see some breakout performances by some of the players on CMU.
The Kentucky Wildcats come into this game with a very respectable 2-2 record and I say that because they only had three wins all year in 2005 and now they have almost matched that total. Something they can do tonight but don't be so sure about it. The line opened at some books at -6.5 and at some books lower. However, the play has been hit hard by the public and the line is now at -7.5 but I have already bet on the game at 6.5 and have no intentions of hedging or backing out of this thing. The Wildcats are coming off a rough and tough game against rivals Florida and I don't know how mentally prepared they are going to be for this game. That loss brought them all back down to earth and now they have to face a team they don't really care about playing against. Not only that, CMU is a pumped up and confident team that can strike when you least expect it so this has now turned into somewhat of a matchup you would expect to see in a Bowl Game in Decemeber. Kentucky is 0-3 ATS lifetime against Central Michigan while their last game against a MAC team was in 2004 when they lost to Ohio at home 28-16. Can you say repeat or what? The Wildcats have a decent offense this year as they average 26.3 points per game in their last three and go up against a defense that has allowed just as many per game in their own last three. The Cats average 355.0 total yards per game on 5.5 yards per play in their last three games while CMU's defense is allowing 389.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.1 yards per play (which is 1.0 yards per play less than Kentucky's defense) over their last three games. The ground game has badly struggled for Kentucky as they average only 102.3 rushing yards per game on 3.2 yards per carry over their last three games. CMU is a team you want to beat on the ground to setup a pass attack because they allow 167.0 rushing yards per game. However...the Chippewas have had opponents attempt 42.7 rushes per game against them over the last three and allow only 3.9 yards per rush. So it's a bit misleading. In the air, QB Andre Woodson is playing very well this season and he is the only reason the Wildcats will win this game. He has 10 touchdown passes with one interception and he has completed 60.9% of his passes. He averages 7.7 yards per pass attempt over the last three games but the Chippewas are decent defensively and allow only 6.7 yards per pass attempt over their last three games. Kentucky's O-Line is very sketchy though and if the Chippewas send a lot of pressure like they usually like to do, Woodson is going to go down quite a few times in this game. Like I said before, the Wildcats might still be a little hungover from the Florida game and practicing for a MAC conference opponent is nothing to get excited about. Well this MAC opponent is red hot right now and don't be shocked if the Wildcats lose.
Trend of the Game: Central Michigan is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games that follow a game where they had 450+ yards of offense.
Kentucky 24, Central Michigan 21
Arkansas State-Florida International 'UNDER' 45 (2 Units)
The Arkansas State Indians are definitely not the team they were last year having lost players like QB Nick Noce, RB's Antonio Warren and Shamar Bracey as well as some key members of their special teams. Well let me tell you that 66-24 home win by Arkansas State over this same Florida International team is not going to happen again. In fact, the Indians will be lucky if they can score 20 points in this game because they haven't done it this season and I don't see them doing it here against a much improved FIU. That was just ridiculous to score 66 points like that (it was a school record versus a I-A school). Now the Indians hit the road to Miami where FIU stadium should be jam packed with fans who want revenge for that embarassing loss. The Indians returned only six starters on offense and are coming off a 55-9 loss against a pathetic SMU team. Prior to that thry beat Army at home in their season opener before losing to Oklahoma State 35-7 in Week 2 action. This is make or break time for Steve Roberts and I have a feeling his point of focus in practice this week was to cut down on the points allowed and concentrate more on the fundamentals of football. The Indians come in averaging only 10.0 points per game this season on 256.3 total yards of offense and 4.3 yards per play. The bad news is that FIU's defense has been their strong point this season and they have allowed only 22.7 points per game in their last three (I say only because it was against Maryland, BG and South Florida) and they have allowed only 4.7 yards per play on 327.3 total yards of offense per game in their last three. On the ground, the Indians have struggle badly to replace Warren and as much as they have tried to run, they average only 3.2 yards per carry this season and rush about 40+ times per game. Florida International have been very good against the run this season allowing 3.5 yards per carry to their opponents. In the air is where things get tricky because QB's Travis Hewitt and Corey Leonard have both been ineffective over their last few games. They have combined for a 49.2% completion rate this season and have passed for 5.8 yards per pass attempt. The problem is that the O-Line is weak and opponents average 4.7 sacks per game against these guys. FIU don't have much of a pass rush but their secondary makes up for it as they allow opposing QB's to complete only 53.8% of their passes over the last three weeks for 6.2 yards per pass attempt. They also have 1.7 interceptions per game over their last three and should be able to shut down the Indians in this game. Without any experience at the QB level and without a good running game to speak of, the Indians are going to have problems in this game. Making things worst, WR Levi Dejohnette (team's #1 receiver in 2005) is out with a concussion and the Indians will continue to have problems putting points on the board and winning games for that matter. The honus will be 100% on the defense to win them games this season but that doesn't always work and although their defense is solid, FIU should get their revenge.
The Florida International Golden Panthers (why are all these teams called Golden?) made me money their last time out as they easily covered an 18.5 point underdog spread and came very close to beating the Maryland Terrapins in Maryland. That was one heck of an impressive outing and this is a team that is about 10 times better than their 0-4 record shows and I say that because they lost by 1 to Middle Tennessee in the opener, lost 1 at South Florida in week 2, lost by 5 at home against Bowling Green and lost by in Maryland last week. So now they have four losses by a total of 11 points which is usually an indication that a team is due for good fortune and what better game to pick for a win than a game where they are trying to exact revenge on a 66-24 drubbing at the hands of these same Indians in 2005. That game ugly and I can tell you now that several guys on both sides of the ball remember that game quite well and that has been circled on their calendars for quite some time. Don Strock (ex Dolphins QB) is a good coach and although his team is young, they have done him proud. The only problem is that their defense is solid as rocks but their offense returned only 4 starters and can't seem to score enough points to give them the win. The Panthers average 19.3 points per game in their last three games but that was done on only 301.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.4 yards per play. Now I know Arkansas State have given up 32.0 points per game this season but they still have one of the best defenses in the Sun Belt with the best LB unit in the Conference as well as one of the best secondaries. On the ground, FIU have really struggled as they have rushed for 100.0 rushing yards on 3.8 yards per carry over their last three games. We might see FIU go to the ground a lot more in this one because Arkansas State's weakness is the run defense which is allowing 155.3 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry in their last three games. RB A'Mod Ned is a solid RB averaging 6.5 yards per carry and I expect him to milk a lot of clock with his constant running of the ball. I think the Panthers are going to run a lot in this one because QB Josh Padrick has thrown 5 interceptions this season and is completing only 54.4% of his passes. If he does go to the air, he is averaging 6.7 yards per pass attempt but that was because of a few long bombs last week. Arkansas State need to start showing their strength in the secondary and this is the game to do it. Sure they allow more than 7.0 yards per pass attempt but Padrick is skeptical when throwing the ball and the Indians already have six interceptions on the season. I see this happening several times over the course of this game. We should see some fumbles and turnovers on both sides of the ball this week and even if both teams get a lot of positive yardage, those turnovers will pretty much cancel all that out and have more time tick off the clock for no reason (since the time runs on a change of possession). Our best friend in this game is the defenses and their abilities to create enough turnovers. We all know Arkansas State won't score many points in this one seeing that 42 of their 66 points came off turnovers in the last meeting. The emphasis in this game will be on clock control, ball movement and heads up football which usually means we are in for a fundamental sleeper.
Trend of the Game: The UNDER is 7-0 in Arkansas State's last seven games after allowing 40+ points the game before.
Florida International 17, Arkansas State 16
Clemson Tigers -33 (1 Unit)
The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs can only hope that Clemson would go easy on them in a game like this but with the Tigers having Wake Forest and Temple on game, this is a great chance for Tommy Bowden's guys to really pad their stats over the next three weeks and make sure they lead the nation in several offensive categories. The Bulldogs are 0-2 ATS this season and although they are 1-2 on the year, winning more than a few games is going to be a challenge and I say challenge because they almost lost to I-AA Nicholl State back on September 18. This is definitely a team that is rebuilding because even though their offense brought back 8 starters, their defense is going to get mashed up in this one as they managed to return only 2 starters. Ouch. So far this season we have observed Jack Bicknell's guys allow more than 21 point in all three of their games and we have seen them struggle to score more than a touchdown per game (something they somehow managed to do twice this year but it was lucky, believe me). They can only come into games like this and pray that their opponents don't score 50+ points but when you return only 2 guys on defense, good teams are going to blow you out of the sky. Sure the Bulldogs have managed to average 18.3 points per game this season but they have done so on 329.3 total yards per game and 5.7 yards per play which is pretty damn good (but once again the defense kills that). Clemson's defense have allowed 20.3 points per game in their last three but look for them to come out strong at home as they have allowed only 225.3 total yards of offense per game in their last three on a nice 3.8 yards per play. On the ground, RB Patrick Jackson and company average only 106.0 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry and you can forget about running the ball against Clemson because they allow only 88.7 rushing yards per game on 2.7 yards per carry in their last three games. As for the pass attack, QB Zac Champion is far from being a champion and he is completing only 47.5% of his passes but has thrown 4 touchdown passes and only one interception. The Bulldogs do average 7.8 yards per pass attempt this season but the problem in this game is that Clemson allow opposing QB's to complete only 49.4% of their passes over their last three games and they allow only 5.1 yards per pass attempt over that same period of time. The problem with Louisiana Tech's offense has been turnovers. They average 2.3 fumbles per game this season which is bad news against a Clemson defense that have forced 2.3 fumbles per game in their last three games. The Tigers are going to pressure champion all night long and that should result in some big mistakes and another blowout loss to a TOP 25 team for the Bulldogs. They being WAC Conference play next week but even that looks bad as they have to play their opener in Boise State. This is a disaster season for the Bulldogs and the blowouts like this one will be a rude reminder that we are going to make money off of quite a few times this year. The offense is too young to keep up and I don't know how the defense is going to stop the Clemson attack.
The Clemson Tigers are starting to like home games because after their most recent blowout win against North Carolina, the Tigers have won their last five home games (against Temple, Duke, Florida State, Florida Atlantic and most recently North Carolina) by an average margin of 34.6 points per game which impresses the hell out of me because they had FSU in there and North Carolina is never a pushover. Well now is the time to extend that streak and let the blowouts at home continue because their next home opponents after this are Georgia Tech, Maryland, NC State and South Carolina. Now that I look at it, Clemson have a great chance at winning all their remaining games this season and it's too bad that a small blunder in overtime cost the Tigers the in in Boston College back on week 2 of the season. What could have been we will never know but one thing I know is that the Tigers are one heck of a solid squad this year. They return 8 starters on offense and it has shown in their relentless attacks this season. Their goal is still to win the ACC which at this point I definitely see happening because nobody has looked as impressive as them. These are the games where the Tigers have to make sure they maintain focus and keep pounding teams into the ground. They have average 37.3 points per game in their last three games and that was done on a whopping 442.7 total yards of offense per game and 6.1 yards per play. Things could get really nasty in this game because Louisiana Tech return only two starters on defense and they have allowed 38.3 points per game this season on 432.3 total yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. So I believe it's safe enough to assume that Clemson is going to score 50 points in this game and hopefully their defense is up for the shutout task. On the ground, RB's James Davis and Reggie Merriweather should both rush for 100+ yards in this one as the Tigers have busted some big runs this year and average 203.7 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry in their last three games. Louisiana Tech have not been able to stop mediocre running attack this season and they allow a whopping 182.0 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry and both Davis and Merriweather should have some runs to remember in this one. In the air, QB Will Proctor has passed for 837 yards, is completing 60.7% of his passes and has thrown six touchdown passes. I call him a darkhorse to win the Heisman Trophy depending on what the Tigers do from here on in and what they do in the ACC Title Game. Proctor has passed for a nice 7.9 yards per pass attempt in his last three games and has been picked off only once since his interception in the opener. The good news here is that Louisiana Tech have been torched through the air this season and are allowing 9.4 yards per pass attempt (ouuuuch) and dont' have any kind of QB pressure or tough secondary to speak of. WR's Chansi Stuckey and Rendrick Taylor could both have career games in this one and I see Stuckey catching at least three touchdown passes here. Like I said before, if Clemson wants a piece of the pie in any given way at the end of the season, these are the games where they have to make statement after statement and show that they can roll with all the big boys. They have an easy schedule to finish the year and guys should be happy to have a good chance to pad their stats big time and look good for the next NFL draft or for National Title implications if it ever comes to that. The Tigers are 3-0 ATS lifetime against WAC teams and have covered each of those games by at least 12 points. That is some impressive stuff and says a lot about how Bowden keeps his guys focused.
Trend of the Game: Louisiana Tech is 0-7 ATS in their last seven September games.
Clemson 50, Louisiana Tech 9
USC-Washington State 'OVER' 51 (2 Units)
The USC Trojans come into this game looking to regain that offensive swagger they displayed in their opener at Arkansas and if Pete Caroll was looking to score another 50 points on a certain tean, the Washington State Cougars are the team to do it against. Since their season opening 50-14 win over Arkansas, the Trojans have been held to under 30 points in their other two games. I'm not too concerned about that because Nebraska and Arizona are very good defensively and USC still managed to score 20 points or more in both games. I am very aware that superstar WE Dwayne Jarrett is going to miss this game but with the depth the USC Trojans have at every single position, I have no doubt that the next guy in line is just as ready to step up. WR Patrick Turner is his replacement and he is a 6'5 player with great hands who was also a supestar in High School (which means this is his big chance to show the world what he can do). In the meantime, the Trojans hope Iowa can help them out this week by beating Ohio State which would immediately make the Trojans #1 in the polls next week if they can win this game here. The last five times USC played here in Pullman, Washington, they scored 29, 42, 31, 27 and 42 points which pretty much tells me that they are good for at elast 34 points in this game. They have also allowed 21.6 points per game played here in the last five and Washington State have an offense that can score some points. The Trojans average 32.7 points per game this season and although Washington State are allowing only 11.7 points per game in their last three, this is by far the best offense they have faced all season. The Trojans average 417.3 total yards per game on 5.5 yards per play in their last three while Washington State have flexed some defensive muscle and allowed only 4.0 yards per play. Impressive yes, butno when you consider their last three opponents were Idaho, Baylor and Stanford. On the ground, RB Emmanuel Moody has led the way and the Trojans average 178.7 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry this season. Washington State have not been tested on the ground and currently allow only 33.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games. Look for USC's strong rushing attack to crush those numbers and open things up in the air. QB John David Booty is completing 64.9% of his passes this season and is passing for 6.3 yards per pass attempt. Washington State have been good to this point but are allowing 5.8 yards per pass attempt in their last three games (again it was against weak opponents) and the USC offensive line will prove to be too big and too tough for Washington State to generate the kind of pressure they want to. Make no mistake about it, Washington State have a much better defense than last year's 31.5 points per game allowed. However, the excitement will be too much and USC will finally find their offensive groove as several of their young players are going to step things up and make some huge plays. It's tough to lose a guy like Dwayne Jarett but as I mentioned earlier, the Trojans are very deep at every position and for every injury they have, there is one special player sitting in the on-deck circle waiting to make his big impact. Remember when Reggie Bush came in for Lendale White and was a virtual nobody? Well we should welcome Patrick Turner to the squad in a big way and Booty is sure to find him in the endzone a few times in this game. I like USC to score their usual big points and assure that this thing goes OVER by the time we hit the fourth quarter.
The Washington State Cougars don't suck but they aren't that good either. I can't say they suck and I can't say they won't give USC problems early on in the game because the Cougars are coming off three impressive wins over mediocre opponents which tells me that they are a focused team. I don't mean that they can come close to beating USC in this game so don't go betting on the Cougars to cover but I mean more that they can definitely put more points on the board than Arizona did against the Trojans last week or that anyone has all year for that matter. Okay maybe not but regardless, it will be their point total (being 7 or 20 points) that should help put this total way over. We all remember the game in Los Angeles last year where the Cougars allowed 745 yards of offense to USC and although we won't see that happen again, the Cougars don't stand a chance of playing small ball against this USC offense. If the Cougars want any shot at winning this game they have to be the ones putting big numbers on the board and making USC match them score for score. If they think they can win a defensive battle, they are going to get blown out and they can forget about covering the spread. In their only home game of the season, the Cougars scored 56 points against Idaho. In their last three games they average 36.3 points per game on a whopping 480.3 total yards of offense per game on 6.5 yards per play (that might be the best in the Nation over the last three games). USC's defense is stout but they tend to allow more points on the road. They are allowing only 9.0 points per game this season on 217.3 total yards per game which is impressive but can it hold up all year? The Trojans are playing their second straight road game and injuries are starting to pile up on the defensive side of things. On the ground, the Cougars have 3 RB's capable of rushing for 100 yards + every game and that should give USC some problems. The Cougars average 211.7 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry over their last three games. USC have done a great job against the run so far, allowing only 2.2 yards per carry this season but the triple threat running attack of Washington State could open up some holes for the Cougars and I see them having some big plays on the ground in this one. QB Alex Brink is much improved from his first two seasons as he has passed for 777 yards, six touchdowns and has completed 62.5% of his passes. The Cougars average 8.5 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and with a very good offensive line in front of him and two years of experience, Brink should have some success throwing the long pass and completing big plays. The USC secondary is allowing 6.4 yards per pass attempt this season but they are dangerous and could easily intercept some Brink passes and take them to the house. That's what I like about the OVER. USC either make the big play and return a pick 6 or they allow the long bomb downfield. They are risk takers and that works to our advantage in this game. The atmosphere should have the Cougars pumped up for the game and their dangerous ground attack will have USC respecting them and allowing more yards than usual. I think Washington State can score 20 points in this game but I don't think they have shot at winning the game but ya just never know with the PAC 10. Regardless, this is a shootout and I am getting my OVER.
Trend of the Game: The OVER is 9-0 in Washington State's last nine night games.
USC 42, Washington State 21
Michigan-Minnesota 'OVER' 50.5 (2 Units)
The Michigan Wolverines are coming off a very mediocre game against Wisconsin and it almost looked as if they were holding back on big plays. However, you can't bash the Wisconsin defense who were definitely the best defensive team the Wolverines have seen all year and even then, Michigan managed to score a nice 27 points against a stout defense. They come into this game 4-0 on the season with some big time National Title aspirations if they can go undefeated. I think it may all come down to the finale against Ohio State but if Michigan don't take some other teams more seriously, they are going to get caught sleeping and lose one of these Big 10 games against Michigan State or Iowa. Regardless, Minnesota is on the platter for the Wolverines in this game and Michigan is probably the best ATS road team in Big 10 Conference games which tells me they are going to be up for the task and have another great game. They have not been held to under 27 points all season and Minnesota is a team that can't hold off some of the worst offenses in the NCAA I-A football. The Wolverines have scored 40+ points here in two of their last four visits and if the cycle of points continues, they usually follow up a sub 30 points peformance here with a 40+ point performance which I see happening today. The Wolverines average 349.3 total yards of offense on 5.3 yards per play in their last three games and they average a whopping 38.3 points per game over that same time span. Wow. Minnesota's defense is allowing 23.0 points per game in their last three games and they have also allowed 369.7 total yards per game on 5.6 yards per play in those three games. On the ground, RB Mike Hart should have a huge bounce back game this week after being held to minimal yardage against the Badgers last week. Seeing that Minnesota allow 156.7 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per carry in their last three games, I think it's safe to say that Hart should rush for 100+ yards in this one. Even if Hart doesn't rush for 100 yards, his ability to move the chains will have Minnesota committing to the run game and leaving things open in the air. QB Chad Henne should have a big game as he is completing 64.7% of his passes in the last three games and is averaging 8.3 yards per pass attempt over the same period of time. That's great news because Minnesota's secondary is atrocious and they have allowed their last three QB opponents to complete 64.8% of their passes for a whopping 7.3 yards per pass attempt. Henne is going to have tons of time to find Breaston and Manningham with the deep ball and his WR's really owe for all the drops last week. I expect the air attack to have their best game yet this year which means we might see the Wolverines score something like 45 points in this shootout. Regardless, I think Lloyd Carr feels the need to flex a little bit of muscle after the conservative game he called last week against Wisky and now would be the time to do it with Michigan State coming to Ann Arbour next week in what should be an epic battle. This could be a breakout game for several offensive stars on the Michigan team.
The Minnesota Golden Gophers have one hell of an offense when they want but their defense is pretty damn useless and their defense is the reason why I am going to be on several OVERS this season. The two shutouts they have pitched were against a MAC conference team and against a Temple team that is going to get shutout in 90% of their games this season. I don't see any reason why they wouldn't get blown out of the house in this one. Minnesota have always had problems on the ATS level when it comes to playing against Michigan and like I have said several times before, I don't see why that would change this week. However, Michigan have shown that they are not the best defensive team around and scoring points at home for Minnesota has never been a problem. In their six home games of 2005, they scored at least 31 points in each game and in their only home game this year, they ended up scoring 62 points. In the last three seasons, there are only two games where Minnesota was held to under 30 points at home and that is pretty damn impressive. That would mean that they have scored 30+ points in 18 of their last 20 home games. Minnesota is averaging 33.3 points per game in their last three games and they have done it on 407.0 total yards per game and an impressive 5.9 yards per play. Michigan's defense on the other hand is allowing 17.0 points per game in their last three outings and they have done it on allowing only 232.3 total yards of offense per game and 3.6 yards per play. Well that's about to change for this defense. On the ground, the Gophers average 195.0 rushing yards per game over their last three games and that came on 4.8 yards per carry. I know Michigan have one of the best run defenses in the Country but can their numbers get any better than allowing only 10.7 rushing yards per game in their last three? Not really. I remember the game last year in Ann Arbour where the Gophers rushed for 264 total yards. In the air, QB Bryan Cupito has been outstanding passing for 742 total yards, completing 62.0% of his passes and throwing 7 touchdown passes. Over the last three games he is averaging 7.5 yards per pass attempt and should have a good game against a Michigan defense that has been stout but are bound to have a letdown game at some point in time. The Wolverines allow only 5.1 yards per pass attempt in their last three, have a great pass rush defense but are going to have to change their ways against a team that can really run the football. With such a good rushing attack, the Wolverines will make themselves vulnerable to the long bomb and Cupito has shown in the past that he can make some big passing plays. He has two Senior WR's (well Spaeth is a Tight End) in Logan Payne and Matt Spaeth and both players have combined to catch six of Cupito's seven TD passes this season. Payne has outstanding speed on the deep ball and look for him to make at least 2-3 huge catches on third down. Minnesota doesn't have to come close to winning but they need to score their usual 30+ points at home and the OVER should be a cetainty. I have no doubts that the game will be high paced and we should see tons of points by the time we hit the half. This is Cupito and Payne's last chances at beating Michigan and I am sure they would love to end things with a bang. I don't see it happening but ya never know and all I care about are the points.
Trend of the Game: The OVER is 9-0 in Minnesota's last nine games as a home underdog.
Michigan 37, Minnesota 31
UTEP Miners -16.5 (5 Units) ***ATS PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The New Mexico State Aggies are not only bad but they are downright brutal. I don't really care that they blew out Texas Southern by 34 points in their last game because there is no difference between what they did in that game and what this team has done the last 4-5 years. The bottom lines remains that Nex Mexico State was 0-12 last year and even though they have 2 wins in Non-Lined games against I-AA teams this season, they should still suck ass against Division I-A teams. It is a know fact that the Aggies don't play well coming off a BYE week as they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games coming off that BYE week. Sure the extra time to prepare for UTEP should really help these guys but they got smoked the last time they played and they are going to get smoked this game as well. New Mexico State are supposed to be having a turnaround year and although I don't doubt that they can win more games this season, this is the wrong spot for them and the line in this game is a big mistake by Vegas oddsmakers. The Aggies are not used to playing on artificial turf (they have played on grass in all their games this season) and are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 artificial turf games. In their three games this season, the Aggies are averaging 35.3 points per game but you have to understand that they have played against two I-AA teams and those numbers come from those blowouts. The Aggies average 522.3 total yards of offense per game on 6.3 yards per play which is #3 in the Country but they have yet to face a good defensive team and their level of intensity won't be up to par with UTEP's defense. The Miners have allowed an out of character 30.3 points per game in their last three but are still one of the best defense in CUSA and it's time to show it. No more of this allowing 384.0 total yards per game on 5.5 yards per play. The Aggies don't have a running game whatsoever, averaging only 103.3 rushing yards per game. If you come to El Paso and you don't have a running game, you can forget about winning games or even scoring points. The Miners have allowed only 3.7 yards per carry this season and once they shut down the run game with easy, they can take care of the Aggies in the air. QB Chase Holbrook is familiar with this offense and he has an incredible 1200 passing yards this season with nine touchdown passes. Well are you ready for the letdown big boy? UTEP are coming to be sending a crazy pass rush to Holbrook in this game it will be interesting to see how he reacts. He has been sacked 3.7 times per game, does not have an Offensive Line that can protect him and UTEP pass rush has not been as good as it should be up to this point. Expect the Miners to send the house to Holbrook at times creating turnovers and getting good field position. The Miners do average 1.3 interceptions in their games this season and have some underrated CB's that are going to benefit from the intensified pass rush of the LB unit. New Mexico State has big time fumbling problems as they have fumbled 3.3 times per game this season and have lost at least 3.0 fumbles per game. Wow...that's incredible and UTEP should have a field day blowing these clowns out and creating several fumbles that should set them up for some big points. I have all the confidence in the world that New Mexico State come nowhere near what they have done in their first two games and this pissed off UTEP team is going to absolutely trash the Aggies.
The UTEP Miners were everyone's big time play last week but let me tell you guys something, Nex Mexico made them look like a team starting a bunch of freshman. They were favored by 9.5 points and ended getting blown out by 13 points. Well let me tell you that team is pissed off, their fans are pissed off, Mike Price is pissed and I wouldn't want to be UTEP's opponent this week when they come out guns blazing and arms swinging. This is a team with a bunch of Senior players on offense who can score 45 points on any given night but who sometimes let their heads get in the way of big wins. They are now barely 1-2 on the season but come into a great spot to play the Aggies. Sure the Miners are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games against New Mexico State but did I mention that the two teams have scored an average of 66 points per game in their last five meetings and if this thing is another shootout, the Miners will definitely cover the spread. This was supposed to be the year that Mike Price and his boys win about 10 games for the first time in who knows how long and looking at their schedule and reading some of the stuff from this past week, Price has told his team and made them believe that this game is the beginning of their new season. Their remaning opponents are all beatable and they can finish the year on a 9-0 run to get that 10 win season like they had wanted before the season started. The Miners have scored 27.3 points per game this season so things are definitely clicking on offense. They have also averaged 326.3 total yards of offense per game on 5.3 yards per play but that was against some pretty good defensive teams. On the ground is where the Miners have to pick things up. RB Marcus Thomas needs to have a breakout game. Thomas has less than 200 rushing yards on the season and is averaging only 2.5 yards per carry (he averaged 5.3 last year). He is a much more powerful back this season who has to learn to use his new size to his advantage. Well the time is now. I know Nex Mexico State allow only 3.4 yards per carry and less than 84.0 rushing yards per game but once again that is against I-AA teams. Thomas should have a huge game. QB Jordan Palmer has been the reason for the two losses this season, throwing six interceptions. However, Palmer is still a very good QB and this should be his best game of the season. He is completing 68.4% of his passes this season and apart from the INT's has played very well. He is averaging 6.8 yards per pass attempt but once again, he needs to be smart about the way he plays and he needs to cut down on the INT's and boneheaded mistakes. The Nex Mexico State defense is allowing 7.0 yards per pass attempt this season and although they generated good pass rush pressure against I-AA teams, the UTEP offensive line is good and will give Palmer the time he needs to find his receivers. What I really like about UTEP is that apart from the interceptions, they have not turned the ball over via fumbles and in games like this, they should crush New Mexico State in the turnover battle. Palmer is going to have a very good bounce back game in this one and I see the Miners winning huge to start their brand new season. In what should be a makeup for their disaster last week, the Miners are going to bring home the bacon for the third time this season as people seem to forget that they are 2-1 ATS and almost beat Texas Tech. Play of the Week is on the Miners. There are 29 seniors on this team and that means a lot when bouncing back from a big loss. That is a huge amount when it comes to experience and UTEP should win this in a blowout.
Trend of the Game: New Mexico State is 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.
UTEP 47, Nex Mexico State 17
RECAP:
Southern Miss-UCF 'Over' 46.5 LOSS
Auburn-South Carolina 'Over' 37
Rutgers -3.5
Wisconsin -11
Tennessee-Memphis 'Over' 44.5 ***O/U POW***
LSU -32
New Mexico-Air Force 'Over' 50
Akron-Kent State 'Under' 42
Texas Tech-Texas A&M 'Under' 57.5
Central Michigan +6.5
Arkansas State-Florida International 'Under' 45
Clemson -33
USC-Washington State 'Over' 62
Michigan-Minnesota 'Over' 50.5
UTEP -16.5 ***ATS POW***
Good Luck to all this week!
:cheers:
