MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 CFB Record: 22-18-1 (+23.90 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 20-16-1 (+24.30 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2 (-0.40 Units)
Last 2 weeks: 14-7-1 ATS (+58.50 Units)
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. Not the kind of start I was looking for but after observing and watching things play out this past weekend, I think it helped a lot of grow as cappers and Im a big believer in the 'watch and learn' type of theory. The rule changes didn't make much of a difference but new coaches did (Dantonio was impressive) and I would love to turn things around this week with the help of my new little friend. Anybody remember my PS2 simulations a while back? Almost time to bring them back for good. Yeah right! LOL!
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Thursday, September 20
Miami Hurricanes -2 (5 Units)
The Texas A&M Aggies come into this Nationally Televised game as the #18 ranked team in the Country. They are 3-0 with a 1-1 ATS record heading into Miami but they have yet to face an opponent even worth mentionining in this writeup. Beating the crap out of I-AA Montana State is nice and beating the crap out of UL Monroe is also nice but struggling to beat Fresno State is not good news considering what that program has become the last two or three years. If we look back at how Texas A&M has done in away road games against non-conference opponents the last few years, you will notice that the Aggies beat Pittsburgh 14-12 as a -3 favorite in 2002, they lost to Virginia Tech 35-19 as a +13 underdog in 2003, they lost 41-21 to Utah as a +8 underdog in 2004, they lost to Clemson 25-24 as a -1 point favorite in 2005 (no away game versus non-conference in 2006). That makes them 0-4 ATS in away games versus non-conferene since 2002 and on top of that, they are only 5-15 ATS away from home as an underdog under head coach Dennis Franchione. That's really not that good. The Aggies come into this game averaging a whopping 46.3 points per game but don't forget who they have played against. They have done that on 446.0 total yards of offense and 6.0 yards per play. Despite allowing a lot of points against Oklahoma, Miami's defense has actually been pretty solid allowing only 303.0 total yards of offense per game for 4.8 yards per play. We all know the Aggies love to run the ball and they have proved that with their 298.3 rushing yards per game and 6.4 yards per carry. Well just ask anyone who tried to run on Miami this year and they'll tell you it's tough against a defense that has allowed only 108.7 rushing yards per game on 2.9 yards per carry. That makes them a lot less effective and it means that QB Stephen McGee has to throw a lot more than he is used to. McGee has completed only 54.5% of his passes this season for 428 yards, 5.6 yards per pass attempt and 2 touchdowns (1 interception). Not too bad. He is up against a Miami defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 61.0% of their passes for 7.6 yards per pass attempt. So expect McGee to pass for well over 200 yards in this game but this all comes down to how stubborn the Aggies really are and if they are willing to move away from the run that much. Miami has 6 interceptions on the year and they also have 6 sacks...so we know they can make big plays. Regardless, the Aggies are going to score points in this game but they will struggle to move the chains when it matters and Miami's defense is going to come up with a few big plays to secure the big win.
Randy Shannon's debut as the head coach of the Miami Hurricanes has been very much Jekyll and Hyde and it's hard to figure out why. The Canes kicked off the year with a very impressive 31-3 win over Marshall at home but then went on the road and got blown out of the water by what I say is the best team in the Country right now (Oklahoma beat them 51-13). Then last week in a rematch of sorts, the Hurricanes beat Florida International (one of the worst D-1 teams in the Nation) by only 14 points. So the last two games have not been impressive and the Canes are only 1-2 ATS on the year but this is a great chance for Randy Shannon to showcase himself and his team in front of a National TV audience. Since the year 2000, the Miami Hurricanes are a perfect 9-0 straight up when playing on a Thursday Night and this is also another one of those wacky situations where the Canes play three straight home games. I mention that because Miami is 18-1 in their last 19 games that are part of a three game homestand so a lot of good factors point towards a Miami win in tonight's game. The Hurricanes come into this game averaging 22.3 points per game which is not bad at all and they have done it on 302.7 total yards of offense but more importantly on 5.1 yards per play which means that if they can run more plays, they'll definitely have more succcess on that side of the ball. The Texas A&M Aggies have yet to face anyone of any significance yet they have allowed 22.0 points per game this season on 384.7 total yards and 4.9 yards per play. On the ground, Miami RB's Javarris Jones and Graig Cooper have led this team to 172.0 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry. That's most definitely good news for Canes backers because Texas A&M relies too heavily on their defensive line to make big stops and if Cooper or Jones get into the second level (linebackers) they can do some serious damage against a defense that has allowed 154.7 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry this season. In the air, QB Kyle Wright is back in the driver's seat and he has completed 51.5% of his passes for 289 yards, 8.8 yards per pass attempt and 2 touchdowns (2 interceptions as well). Nothing impressive but definitely better than Kirby Freeman and I'll take his leadership over Freeman's anyday. There is no doubt in my mind that Wright can have a huge game against somewhat of a weak secondary. Texas A&M's defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 58.1% of their passes for 6.6 yards per pass attempt and they have 4 interceptions. The only problem for them is that Miami's offensive line is outstanding and the Aggies don't have enough power pressure guys to force Wright into making the mistakes he usually makes. As long as Miami can keep things on the ground and pound away early in this game, the air attack will take care of itself and both WR's Darnell Jenkins and Lance Leggett will make some big plays. Miami will surprisingly have one of their best offensive outputs in a long time (have scored 30+ points only three times since the beginning of last season).
It's not a known secret that if you can shut down the run against Dennis Franchione run teams, you are going to have some success. Miami's defensive line and their group of LB's have done an outstanding job against the run this season and seeing how Texas A&M has yet to prove that they can have an effective passing attack, the Aggies are going to struggle big time once Miami shuts down their ground attack. As mentioned before, Franchione is 5-15 ATS as a road underdog since the beginning of his tenure here in 2003 and he has yet to prove that he can win on the road, let alone win or cover spread against non-conference opponents on the road (0-3 ATS since he began here). I also pointed out that Miami is a perfect 9-0 straight up when playing on a Thursday Night since the year 2000 and it looks like they have the upper hand in the matchup tonight. Miami's running attack is going to be a lot more effective than Texas A&M's in this one and Kyle Wright will see that when the running game works, some much better avenues usually open up in the passing game. This is on National TV and the Canes are gonna make a Randy Shannon like statement with a big win.
Trend of the Game: Texas A&M is 5-15 ATS on the road as an underdog under head coach Dennis Franchione.
Miami 45, Texas A&M 35
Friday, September 21
Oklahoma Sooners -23 (25 Units) ***WEEKNIGHT PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Where do I begin with this team? Well not only do I think these guys are off to the most impressive start of any team in the Nation this season but I think that Oklahoma is by far the best team in the Nation right now and it would be tough to argue who should play for the National Title should Oklahoma, LSU and USC all end up with perfect records or only one loss. Regardless, I do know for sure that with Bob Stoops there is no room for error on this team and losing a game is not an option at this point the season. The Sooners are a perfect 3-0 ATS to kickoff the year as they demolished North Texas by 69 points in their opener, followed that up with an impressive 38 point win over the Miami Hurricanes and are now coming off a 51 point shallacking of Utah State. So the competition has not been that great but the same can be said about some other teams who have not won convincgly enough to earn higher rankings. The last two seasons were somewhat of a disaster for this dominating program and both seasons Oklahoma lost their first road game of the year. Well that's not happening to Bob Stoops this year and I think he looks to make a statement here. The Sooners come into this game averaging a whopping 61.3 points per game this season and they have done it on 565.3 total yards of offense per game but more impressively 7.8 yards per play. That's really bad news for Tulsa because they have allowed 32.0 points per game this season and they have allowed 486.0 total yards of offense and 6.2 yards per play this season. Ouch! On the ground, the Sooners have dominated teams and rushed for 241.0 yards per game and a whopping 5.6 yards per carry. RB's DeMarco Murray, Patrick Allen and Mossis Madu have combined for 550 rushing yards, 8 touchdowns and all have more than 6.6 yards per carry. Tulsa is in deep shit here as they have allowed 184.5 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry. QB Sam Bradford is off to an outstanding start as a Sooner as he has completed 79.7% of his passes this season for 824 passing yards, a crazy 11.1 yards per pass attempt and 11 touchdown passes (1 interception). WOW! Tulsa's pass defense has actually done a decent job this season as they have held opponents to a 51.9% pass completion rate but have also let opponents drop 7.6 yards per pass attempt on them in the process. Seeing how Tulsa doesn't have any real good pressure guys on their defensive line, Bradford is going to have all day to pass the ball downfield and I expect him to connect for some big time yardage on a few occasions in this one. It won't be a huge passing day for Bradford because the running game will be so effective that passing the ball will become virtually useless. The only concern with the Sooners has been the 5 fumbles they have lost this season but Stoops looks like he has things under control here and I trust that he can lead them to another blowout win.
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane come into this Friday Night Lights special off a huge win over BYU last weekend that saw them put 47 points up on the board. Todd Graham is the new head coach of Tulsa this season and so far, so good is what people are saying in Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane are 2-0 to start the season and that is 2-0 ATS as well despite returning only 10 starters from last season. Well their two opponents, UL Monroe and BYU are both going to have decent seasons this year but let's not kid ourselves into thinking that they are anywhere near the kind of talent Tulsa is going to see when they take the field against the Sooners. In their last three meetings with Stoops and Oklahoma, Tulsa has managed to score only 15 points and have been outscored 126-15 in those games. The last two times Oklahoma has come to Tulsa to play against the Hurricane, they have shut them out although that probably won't happen tonight, it's going to take a while before Tulsa has a clue what is going on in this game. Unlike most teams, Tulsa has already had their week off and they do not have a look-ahead game to think about...this is the big one. The Golden Hurrican come into this game averaging 45.0 points per game through two games to open the season and they have done it by averaging 559.0 total yards of offense and 7.2 yards per play. Very impressive to say the least. However, Oklahoma's defense is one of the best in the Nation and they have allowed only 8.7 points per game in three games to open the season and have allowed only 181.0 total yards of offense per game on 2.9 yards per play. You can't find better than that anywhere in the Nation. Tulsa RB Courteney Tennial is an Oklahoma transfer but he is out for the season and RB Tarrion Adams has led this team to 160.5 rushing yards per game for 3.6 yards per carry. I think Tennial is going to be the only bright spot on this offense tonight as he rushed for close to 100 yards against a Sooners defense that has allowed only 44.0 rushing yards per game and 1.3 yards per carry. In the air, QB Paul Smith is one of the best offensive players in the CUSA as he has completed 65.2% of his passes for 761 passing yards, 11.1 yards per pass attempt and 8 touchdowns (2 interceptions) in only two games this season. He is up against an Oklahoma defense that has held opponents to a 51.8% pass completion rating and a defense that has held opponents to 4.8 yards per pass attempt. Smith is going to struggle for the first time this season as he will face pressure from all sides and will certainly run out of time to get rid of the ball. Smith has thrown 15 interceptions the last two seasons (16 if you count the one this year) and Oklahoma already has 5 interceptions this year and a very aggressive secondary. Tulsa will score some points in this one but they won't come until late and by then Oklahoma should have a comfortable 30 point lead.
Oklahoma has one of the most dominant and most powerful ground attacks in the Nation and they are up against a team that is one of the worst in the Nation against the run. What else do you need to know about this game anyways? DeMarco Murray and his crew of running backs are going to combined for well over 300 rushing yards in this game and as long as they can control the clock and keep their defense fresh, there is no chance that Tulsa can be effective enough on the offensive side of things so I don't see them coming close to the numbers they have put up so far this season. As a matter of fact Tulsa is going to struggle to put up 300 yards of offense in this game (Oklahoma has allowed less than 200 per game) even though they have some of the top offensive players in the CUSA Conference. Tulsa has been shutout the last two times at home against Oklahoma and out of the top three teams in the Nation this year (USC, LSU, Oklahoma), the Sooners have by far the most dangerous overall attack on offense. This should be a fun game to watch and even though a huge amount of public players are going to be on Oklahoma, it's the only way to go in this one.
Trend of the Game: Oklahoma is 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.
Oklahoma 56, Tulsa 21
Saturday, September 22
North Carolina Tar Heels +13.5 (10 Units)
The North Carolina Tar Heels are not going to be a popular choice to win this football game and I probably don't blame a lot of you for being on South Florida in this game. However, this game goes a lot deeper than just looking at who these teams have played against and what they have done so far this season. North Carolina is a very young team playing for first year new head coach Butch Davis who found absolutely no success coaching at the NFL level with the Cleveland Browns. Butch will always be remembered for the work he did at Miami and how he put together some pretty damn good teams there that got them off probation. Now he is dealing with a North Carolina team that went only 3-9 last season and that has only 8 wins the last two years. Only 9 starters return this season for the Tar Heels but for such a young team they have done a pretty damn good job so far and I think they can really compete in this game. Davis brought in some big time recruits and give these guys a few years and they'll be a good team. If you watched parts of the Tar Heels 37-20 loss to South Florida, you will remember that they had a 7-0 lead and did look good for quite some time in that game. The Tar Heels come into this game averaging a very respectable 29.3 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 383.0 total yards of offense and 6.5 yards per play. South Florida's defense is a lot better than most people think it is and they have allowed only 18.0 points per game this season on 275.5 total yards and 3.6 yards per play. On the ground, North Carolina has been atrocious running the ball for 79.7 yards per game and only 2.7 yards per carry. RB Johnny White (redshirt freshman) has been the only bright spot and he could reach the 100 yard plateau in this one against a Bulls defense that allows 83.0 rushing yards per game on 2.5 yards per carry. White has done a great job this season and UNC has to run the ball if they want things to move in the air. QB TJ Yates (also a redshirt freshman) has been pretty damn good this season completing 65.9% of his passes for a whopping 901 passing yards, 10.2 yards per pass attempt and 9 touchdowns (3 interceptions). It's gonna be tough for Yates to match those numbers here because South Florida have allowed their opponents to complete only 54.5% of their passes this season for only 4.4 yards per pass attempt. What I do like however is that he will have time to throw (USF has only 3 sacks on the year) and Yates has shown and proven to be a playmaker. He doesn't need to do anything big in this game...he just needs to keep things simple and keep this offense moving. It won't be easy but Yates has one of the best receiving corps in the ACC this season and he won't shy away from using them to win this game.
The South Florida Bulls were considered by some experts as being darkhorse National Title Contenders should USC, LSU and Oklahoma all mess up and should the Bulls sweep their schedule and go 12-0. Well Jim Leavitt and his guys are on the right track right now as they are 2-0 (1-0 ATS) to start the season and coming off another huge upset win, this one over the Auburn Tigers two weeks ago. So the Bulls have had a full week extra to sit around and gloat about how good they really are but not realizing that they probably don't match up all that well with the Tar Heels in this game. Raymond James Stadium has been friendly to the Bulls over the course of their tenure here as they are now 45-10 in this place and not many teams have been able to walk in there and beat them. The Bulls are now 11-6 ATS as home favorites since beginning I-A play back in 2001 but they are only 2-4 ATS in home games when favored by double d's since the 2002 season. Not a good sign. It means that oddsmakers tend to overreact to the way they have played. Right now beating Auburn doesn't look like much seeing how the Tigers just lost again last weekend to Mississippi State. The Bulls come into this game averaging 27.0 points per game this season and they have done that on 347.0 total yards of offense per game but only 4.7 yards per play. North Carolina has done a decent job on defense considering they have only 4 returning starters as they have allowed 23.3 points per game on 356.7 total yards of offense and 4.9 yards per play. On the ground, RB Mike Ford has led this team to 141.5 rushing yards per game on 41.5 carries per game and 3.4 yards per carry. However, North Carolina's defense is run tested as opponents have averaged 42.7 rushes against them this season and averaged 137.0 rushing yards per game for only 3.2 yards per carry. That's wont work for USF in this one. That means QB Matt Grothe is going to have to do it himself. Grothe has completed 62.1% of his passes for 422 yards, 6.1 yards per pass attempt and 3 touchdowns. He should have no problems passing all over this South Florida secondary who have allowed opponents to complete 69.2% of their passes this season for 7.2 yards per pass attempt. The Tar Heels don't provide much pressure up front and they drop back too far in coverage. I know Grothe can pass for 300+ yards in this game if he wants to but it won't mean that the Bulls can run the ball and if they keep North Carolina in this game early, the Tar Heels have enough talent to pull off the upset.
It's really hard to cover by double d's at home when you don't have one of the top offenses in your conference. Like I mentioned before, South Florida is only 2-4 ATS as a home favorite of more than 10 points since 2002 despite going 11-6 ATS at home since 2001. Not only do the Bulls average 36 less yards of offense per game than North Carolina this season but they also average 1.8 less yards per play and that could be a pretty big problem for a team trying to cover such a large spread by their standards. North Carolina's defense is not all that good but a team like USF is going to have problems exposing their weaknesses in this game. Brandon Tate is one of the top return guys in the ACC for North Carolina and if USF is not careful, he won't shy away from giving the Tar Heels good field position when they start most of their drives. North Carolina is very young but Butch Davis did a great job last week against Virginia and he did a great job against East Carolina, despite losing both games. I know USF has the talent to compete with just about anyone in the Country but this is a bit of a letdown game as well as a possible look-ahead scenario with WVU on deck next week.
Trend of the Game: North Carolina is 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog.
North Carolina 33, South Florida 21
Notre Dame Fighting Irish +11.5 (25 Units) ***RIVALRY PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Michigan State Spartans are off and flying to one of their best starts in years and by the looks of things it has quite a bit to do with the arrival (or return we should say) of Mark Dantonio to the Big 10. The Spartans come into this game with a 3-0 record on the year but the fact that they are only 1-2 ATS tells me that they are a bit overvalued by oddsmakers and being favored by this many points in South Bend is a bit ridiculous. Michigan State looked damn good against a very young and inexperienced UAB team in the season opener but they have looked a bit sluggish in their last two games beating Bowling Green by only 11 points as a -17.5 favorite and beating Pittsburgh by only 4 points as a -10.5 favorite last week. Michigan State is a paltry 3-9 ATS as a road favorite over the last seven seasons and I don't see how Mark Dantonio can make enough of a difference to change that around. Sure Michigan State has won five straight games in South Bend and they have dominated this series overall but circumstance takes over in this instance and I think Michigan State is going to struggle against a hungry Fighting Irish team. The Spartans come into this game averaging 33.3 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 437.3 total yards of offense per game on 5.8 yards per play. As poor as the numbers look for Notre Dame's defense, they are not all that bad considering that their offense has yet to really crack the 150 yards of offense mark more than once. Notre Dame has allowed 34.0 points against this season on 351.3 total yards of offense but only 5.0 yards per play. On the ground, RBs Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick have been on a tear and led this team to 194.7 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry. Notre Dame has struggled badly against the run allowing 237.3 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry but I see a definite improvement in this game. I actually think the Irish can have their best defensive showing of the season in this game as Michigan State's offensive line is exposed for the weaker unit that they are. In the air, QB Brian Hoyer has completed 60.8% of his passes for 634 yards, 8.6 yards per pass attempt and 3 touchdowns (2 interceptions). Without the usual success on the ground, Hoyer will have to do a lot more against a defense that has allowed opponents to complete only 48.4% of their passes for only 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Hoyer has shown that he does not produce as well under pressure and Notre Dame should force him into mistakes in this game. The Irish have recovered 4 fumbles this season and this should be MSU's worst showing yet.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are not as bad as everyone is making them out to be. Well okay yeah maybe they are but only on the offensive side of things. Their defense has done a much better job than they are getting credit for and for the first time this year I really think the Irish can come out of their collective shells and make a splash like they were supposed to do in the first three games of the season. The Irish looked horrendous against Georgia Tech in a 33-3 season opening loss at home. They then went on the road and lost 31-10 against a very good Penn State team and then on the road again to the Big House only to lose 38-0 to a pissed off Michigan team. So thinks really can't get any worse for this team and that is one of the main reasons I am betting on them in this game. Notre Dame is a perfect 1-0 ATS under Charlie Weiss as home underdogs in his two and a half years as head coach here and that's something you really need to keep in mind (never count out the Irish). If the Irish are looking for inspiration, they should look no further than their win in East Lansing last year when they came back to win from 16 points down in the fourth quarter. The Irish come into this game averaging a pathetic 4.3 points per game and they have done that on only 126.0 total yards per game and 2.2 yards per play. Once again, the only way to go is up for this offense. Michigan State has allowed 16.0 points per game this season and they have done that on 286.7 total yards and 4.2 yards per play which is again not saying much considering who they have played against. On the ground, the Irish average only 6.3 yards per game on 0.2 yards per carry. Huh? Okay well forget about that since Michigan State allows only 2.8 yards per carry. This is all about QB Jimmy Claussen's breaking out party in the passing attack. Claussen has really not been all that bad and gets to make his first home start of his career having completed 58.5% of his passes this season for 252 yards, 4.6 yards per pass attempt and no touchdown passes. Well I see him passing for 200+ yards in this game against a Michigan State secondary that has allowed opponents to complete 56.4% of their passes for 5.4 yards per pass attempt. As long as the offensive line can holdoff the Michigan State pass rush that as 12 sacks up to this point, Claussen should feel more comfortable in the pocket on his own home turf. Notre Dame is going to come out and play a lot better than they have this season and like I said before, welcome to college football Jimmy Claussen...should be his best game to date.
I don't care who has done what or has won this or lost this up to this point in the season. This is a brand new seasons for Charlie Weiss and the Notre Dame football team starting with this game and although most people don't think they can win until November comes calling, I think some of you guys are dead wrong and I think this is the best game they are going to play up to this point. What more do I have to tell you other than the fact that Michigan State is 3-9 ATS the last seven seasons as a road favorite and that this is not the kind of number you want to be laying on this team. No matter what anyone says about Notre Dame, the only reason they have allowed so many points per game and looked so bad defensively is because their offense has been putrid and has not been able to move the chains and help the defense. Other than that, Notre Dame's defense is pretty damn good and they are going to cause problems for Michigan State and Brian Hoyer all afternoon. I really think Weiss can rally the troops and lead them to a win in this game, if not, there is no way Michigan State walks in here and wins by more than a few points. Bank this one as a big one baby! I guarantee Notre Dame's first offensive touchdown of the season to go along with 250+ yards of offense.
Trend of the Game: Michigan State is 4-28 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing 200+ rushing yards.
Notre Dame 23, Michigan State 6
Penn State Nittany Lions -3 (5 Units)
The Penn State Nittany Lions are looking pretty damn good right now and unless something goes seriously wrong from here on in, there is no reason why they can't win the very weak looking BIG 10 this seasons. Not only are they 3-0 to start the year (2-1 ATS) but this Michigan game become very winnable all of a sudden and they get to host Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin and Purdue while playing road games against Illinois, Indiana, Temple and Michigan State. So like I said things are looking pretty damn bright and Joe Patterno knows how important this game is if they want a shot at that BIG 10 title. Penn State has yet to play against a real opponent so it's tough to tell if they are the real deal or not but the way they have won their games has been damn impressive and there is no reason why they can't avenge last season's close 17-10 home loss to Michigan by winning this game. The Nittany Lions have not won in Ann Arbor or at all against Michigan since 1996 making that an eight game losing streak. So this is as big a game as it gets for Penn State. The Nittany Lions come into this game averaging a whopping 45.0 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 412.3 total yards of offense on 5.5 yards per play. Michigan's defense is coming off a shutout of Notre Dame but the Irish offense has been horrendous and the Wolverines are still allowing 24.3 points per game on 374.3 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play. On the ground, Penn State has done a pretty damn good job running the ball as they average 197.0 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry. Michigan's run defense has allowed 172.7 rushing yards per game this season on 4.1 yards per carry so expect RBs Rodney Kinlaw and Austin Scott to have some success in this game but as not as much as the passing attack. In the air, QB Anthony Morelli has completed 63.2% of his passes for 628 yards, 7.2 yards per pass attempt with 8 touchdowns and 1 interception. I think Morelli is going to have one of his best game as a Nittany Lion as Michigan's secondary has allowed opposing QB's to complete 66.2% of their passes so far this season for 8.5 yards per pass attempt. There is no holding back for Morelli in this game...this is his last chance to make things happen for Penn State before leaving the school. Michigan does have 4 interceptions on the year and 5 sacks but Morelli has a great set of receivers who should really help him with the pass rush and the short routes. What has impressed me the most is that Penn State has taken only 4.3 penalties per game this season and discipline in the big house usually takes you pretty far. Expect Paterno to have studied tapes from the Oregon and App State games closely and if he knows what he's doing, he'll unleash Morelli on this Wolverines defense that has been soft.
The Michigan Wolverines gave their fans some hope last week when they earned their first win of the season by beating Notre Dame 38-0 in the Big House. Well I know it looks like a breath of fresh air for Lloyd Carr and his guys but let's screw our head caps on properly here and let's recognize that problems don't just get solved over a period of one week. So you're telling me that all of a sudden the Wolverines defense is up to snuff with everyone else and all of a sudden they can stop teams that have good passing quarterbacks with a decent rushing attack to back it up? I don't think so. Last week's win over Notre Dame was inevitable and wasn't much now that you consider what other teams have done against the same Irish team. Michigan is now 1-2 on the season with a 1-1 ATS record and they will probably have some kind of confidence in this game knowing that they have knocked off Penn State eight straight times. I don't buy the trend though because it's been a while since Penn State has had the paper advantage over the Wolverines and this time I think it means something. Since 2000, Michigan has been a home underdog only once and that was a 25-21 loss to Ohio State. The Wolverines come into this game averaging 25.7 points per game on 407.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.1 yards per play. Penn State's defense is one of the best in the Conference if not in the Nation and they have allowed only 11.3 points per game and did that by allowing only 217.7 total yards of offense per game on 3.4 yards per play this season. On the ground, RB Mike Hart is the one and only bright spot on this team and even though Penn State allows only 17.7 rushing yards per game so far this year for 0.6 yards per carry, I think Hart is going to have another big game and rush for 100+ yards. However, it didn't matter last week but it will matter this week that QB Chad Henne is out of action. Ryan Mallett is in again and he has completed only 40.6% of his passes this season for 139 yards, only 4.3 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. That's nothing special. Penn State's linebacking unit and secondary are way above average and they have allowed opposing QBs to complete 58.6% of their passes this season for 6.1 yards per pass attempt. They have big time pressure packages that usually throw quarterbacks into a frenzy. The Nittany Lions defense has 17 sacks in three games and the Wolverines offensive line has allowed 5 sacks on the year so there is potential for big things. Penn State has also forced 11 fumbles this year and Michigan has lost 5 fumbles on the year so once again, the aggressive Penn State defense is going to give Michigan all sorts of problems.
The easy way to bet on this game would be to think that Michigan has their act together and that oddsmakers have lost their minds posting this kind of line. While that might be true, I still don't understand what makes anyone in their right minds think that the tide has turned for the Wolverines? It's very scary to go against a Michigan team that is 24-1 in their last 25 Big 10 opener but Michigan has pretty much broken every good/bad trend over the last few weeks and you can only expect the unexpected with this team so don't be shocked when that record moves to 24-2. My main concern in this game is that Michigan won't be able to stop Penn State's very potent passing and running attack. They had problems against the only two teams who could do both (Notre Dame can't do anything) and there's no reason to believe they'll have an easier time in this game. This is a very unfamiliar spot for Carr and his Wolverines because since 2000 they have been home underdogs only once and that was a loss to Ohio State. I really like Anthony Morelli to have a monster game this afternoon and when the dust settles on this shootout, the Nittany Lions should have the upper edge.
Trend of the Game: The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Penn State 56, Michigan 31
Kentucky Wildcats +7 (10 Units)
The Kentucky Wildcats were not considered to be as good as last year's team that went 8-5 and returned 15 starters combined on both sides of the ball...oh yeah and they went 6-4-1 ATS but from the looks of things in this early season, the Wildcats have been pretty damn good. Kentucky is 3-0 on the season and not only have they won those games but they have looked damn impressive in those wins and owna 2-0 ATS record (one as an underdog and one as a favorite). So what's with the knocking from SEC experts who were saying that there is no chance of them having the kind of season they did last year? The Wildcats shut everyone up by beating Louisville last week 40-34 at home and if that doesn't have the confidence of this team sky high, I don't know what will do the trick. For the first time in about 20 years last year, the Wildcats won their SEC opening game and I think they can follow suit this year. The two games Kentucky played on the road against non ranked conference opponents last few years were a 34-31 win over Missisippi State and a 48-43 win over Vanderbilt, a 13-7 loss to Mississippi and a 44-16 loss to South Carolina. So as you can see, only one of those games was lost by more than 6.5 points over the last two seasons. The Wildcats come into this game averaging 48.7 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging a whopping 502.7 total yards of offense and 6.9 yards per play. Arkansas' defense has not been good at all this year allowing a whopping 33.5 points per game and allowing 413.5 total yards of offense per game on 5.2 yards per play. On the ground, the top five rushers on Kentucky are all averaging more than 7.0 yards per carry and each have at least one touchdown this season. That means they average 246.7 rushing yards per game on 6.3 yards per carry which could be a big problem for Arkansas because they have allowed 142.0 rushing yards per game on the season for 4.4 yards per carry. In the air, QB Andre Woodson is definitely one of the best five quaterbacks in the Nation having completed 67.0% of his 97 pass attempts for 738 passing yards, 7.6 yards per pass attempt, 9 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Wow! Well Arkansas has been pretty good against the pass allowing opposing QBs to complete only 43.6% of thier passes for 5.8 yards per pass attempt but that was only Troy and Alabama...who both have mediocre looking quarterbacks at best. Woodson has been sacked 6 times this season but Arkansas doesn't have much of a pass rush and have only 1 sack on the year. They do have an aggressive secondary that already has 3 interceptions but Woodson is as smart as it gets and he's going to shine with some big time plays to the six players who have caught TD passes this season. Kentucky is not about to slow down in hog country.
The Arkansas Razorbacks almost gave a bunch of us some heart attacks last week when they pushed Alabama to the brink, came all the way back from a huge deficit and eventually lost on a last second touchdown by the Tide hooking us up with a very scary PUSH on the -3 for Alabama. That effort by the Razorbacks was very impressive but it was also very demoralizing to come all the way back and have things look so damn good only to blow some assignments on the last drive of the game and still lose in dramatic fashion. The Razorbacks are now 1-1 ATS on the year (they graded it +3.5 last game for many although us early birds had the -3) and now it's time to open SEC play at home against a very tough Kentucky Wildcats team. Arkansas won every single game against SEC East opponents in 2006 but that was with a whopping 18 starters combined back on both sides of the ball and this season they have only 12 starters back and do not have the same kind of team as they did last year. I don't really understand the line for this game seeing how the Razorbacks have injury concerns and seeing how they do not match up well with this Kentucky team. The Razorbacks come into the game averaging 42.0 points per game this season in their two games which is impressive. They have tallied 470.0 total yards of offense per game on 6.3 yards per play. Kentucky's defense has allowed only 21.3 points per game in their first three games this season and allowed only 371.3 total yards of offense on 5.1 yards per play. We all know what Arkansas can do on the ground with RB Darren McFadden but he is suffering from symptoms from a bad concussion and could see limited play in this one. Regardless, Arkansas can still run and they average 327.5 rushing yards per game on 6.3 yards per carry but again health is an issue here. Kentucky's run defense has not been good allowing 181.3 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry but to win this game, Arkansas has to pass. QB Casey Dick has completed only 51.2% of his passes for 234 yards, 5.7 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. With McFadden a big maybe for this game, Dick will have a bigger role than he has had to date in this one. Kentucky's defense has allowed opponent quarterbacks to complete only 54.4% of their passes for 5.5 yards per pass attempt and they have recorded 5 interceptions to this point. In their two games this season Arkansas has fumbled 6 times (lost 4 of them) so expect the Wildcats to be aggresive and go for the strip. I like Kentucky's defense to make a few big plays.
The irony here is that we are all expecting a big shootout between these two teams and the regular time score could easily eclipse the 7 overtime score of the last time these two teams met. That game saw the final score 70-63 go the way of the Razorbacks and the teams have not played since. Houston Nutt is a good coach but Arkansas has never really dominated at home as a favorite as they are 15-18 ATS in that spot since 2000 so don't expect big things. Kentucky looks like they can be one of those surprise teams this season as they looked great last week and are being dogged even more this week which is a bit of a surprise. They have one of the best quarterbacks in the Nation in Andre Woodson and have a plethora of running backs who can take it to the house (crazy rushing numbers this season). Arkansas has not shown that they can play any defense whatsoever in any of their two games and coming off that big loss against Alabama last week, the defense could be a bit tired and dejected which is really bad news when you're about to play against such an explosive offense. Should be a good one but in the end, Kentucky has too much fire power for these guys.
Trend of the Game: Kentucky is 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog.
Kentucky 65, Arkansas 49
Georgia Bulldogs +3.5 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Georgia Bulldogs played one bad game this season and now everyone is on their case and oddsmakers have pretty much written them off in this one. Well I don't buy it for one second because before the season started this was probably the most talented team in the SEC West and apart from their home loss to South Carolina a few weeks ago (did you all know that Steve Spurrier is 9-1 ATS in away games as head coach of South Carolina?) the Bulldogs have not had the chance to prove themselves to the college football world and I think this game is a great opportunity for them. The Bulldogs got to calm down last week as they took on I-AA opponent Western Carolina and demolished those guys 45-16. So after knocking the teeth out of two of their three opponents this season while losing in their only SEC matchup, the Bulldogs are ready for another divisional matchup...a game they can't really afford to lose if they want any chance at playing for the SEC Title at the end of the year. It's no secret that Georgia has always struggled when playing in Tuscaloosa (1-7 all-time) but they did win here in Mark Richt's only visit. Georgia comes into the game averaging 30.7 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 359.7 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play. Alabama's defense has been impressive so far (apart from their collapse a week ago against Arkansas) and they have allowed 18.0 points per game on 309.7 total yards of offense and only 4.4 yards per play. On the ground, Georgia has not really taken off the way we thought they would as they average only 136.7 rushing yards per game this season on a mediocre 3.7 yards per carry. However, redshirt freshman RB Knowshon Moreno is getting better by the game and I look for him to have an impact on an Alabama defense that has allowed 144.7 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry. Moreno is averaging 5.7 yards per carry so look for him to be feature in this one. In the air, QB Matthew Stafford has been so-so completing 58.0% of his passes this season for 621 yards, 7.1 yards per pass attempt and 4 touchdowns (1 interception). Alabama's pass defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 47.3% of their passes this season for 5.3 yards per pass attempt but Stafford is by far the best QB Alabama is going to have seen all season. The Crimson Tide have 4 sacks on the year which is not enough pressure to force a guy like Stafford into making big mistakes. The Bulldogs have been very good with turnovers this season and I look for them to come out swinging in this game. Alabama's defensive line is going to have problems in this game and I think Stafford is going to pass all over this defense once the ground attack softens things up.
The Alabama Crimson Tide escaped disaster last week when they scored a touchdown with eight seconds left on the clock to retake their blow lead and beat Arkansas 41-38. The Crimson Tide blew a 21 point lead and several other leads only to pretty much pull off a miracle and stay unbeaten on the year. They are now 3-0 under new head coach Nick Saban with a 1-1 ATS record. Over the last seven years, Alabama has never really proved top anyone that they can win at home and cover spreads as a favorite at the same time. Since 2002, the Crimson Tide are only 15-25 ATS when playing as the home favorite and although Nick Saban can probably turn things around eventually, his defense is still too young to hold the fort down in games like last week's and if they thought Arkansas was a tough out...they have no idea what they are in for against the Bulldogs of Georgia. I am also a big fan of fading teams that narrowly escaped both SU and ATS wins the week before when they go up against a team some people have already written off this early in the season. This could be one of the best game we get to see all day. Alabama comes into this game averaging 39.0 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 465.3 total yards of offense and 6.0 yards per play which is impressive considering their horrendous offensive woes the last few seasons. Georgia's defense is as young and inexperienced as Alabama's but they also have done a decent job and allowed only 15.3 points per game this season on only 260.3 total yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play. On the ground, Alabama has been running the ball all over their opponents and averaging 219.0 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry. However, Georgia has done a great job against the run this season allowing only 91.0 rushing yards per game on 2.7 yards per carry. I know RBs Terry Grant and Glen Coffee have been on a tear this season but I think they are going to struggle for yardage against this Georgia defensive line. In the air, QB John Parker Wilson has been average at best completing 56.1% of his passes for 666 yards (umm...do u really wanna bet on this guy with a number like this?), 6.8 yards per pass attempt and 4 touchdowns (2 interceptions). Well seeing how Parker-Wilson's role with this team is going to be increased in this game, he will probably have a good game against a Georgia defense that has allowed opposing QBs to complete 61.6% of their passes this season for 5.9 yards per pass attempt. However, Georgia's pass rush has really been on target this season as the Bulldogs have 8 sacks on the season and I really think that when Alabama tries to run the ball with their inexperienced running backs, that the Georgia line can get some penetration and force mistakes. They have already forced 7 fumbles this season and I look for them to pressure Alabama into making mistakes and throwing this game away.
THIS IS MY PLAY OF THE WEEK! I still think Georgia can take control of the SEC EAST and take their act to the SEC Title game at the end of the year. So many people keep talking about Georgia being 1-7 straight up all time in Tuscaloosa and 3-10-1 in their last 14 trips to Alabama but did you know that the only time they played in Alabama under head coach Mark Richt...they won 27-25 in 2002? Lady Luck was with Alabama last week and I don't know why so many of you are fond with them seeing how they looked terrible against Arkansas' offense and they buckled under pressure when the Razorbacks decided to pound things away on the ground. Alabama is a good team and Nick Saban is a good coach but Georgia's Mark Richt knows how important this game is because the Bulldogs really can't afford to go to 0-2 in SEC EAST play...that would mean their chances at the title are pretty much donzo. I think Georgia's offense is going to look a lot better than it did against South Carolina (very good defensive team) and I think Alabama is finally going to mess one of these games up like they teased last week.
Trend of the Game: Alabama is 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite.
Georgia 31, Alabama 12
Iowa Hawkeyes +8 (10 Units)
The Iowa Hawkeyes do not deserve the line they are getting in this game and I don't care what anyone says, oddsmakers are going to make some cash by dragging Wisconsin bettors down with them. I mean the Hawkeyes have one bad game and all of a sudden everyone forgets that they are 2-1 on the season and have covered the spread in both their wins. Then came the loss to Iowa State last week. Yes it was a bad loss because they were favored by -17.5 points in that game but we all know that anything can happen in a rivalry game and when was the last time Iowa State didn't take Iowa for a good run at home? Exactly. Prior to the loss the Hawkeyes beat Northern Illinois 16-3 as a -12 point favorite and then went back home for a 35-0 win over Syracuse as -24 point favorites. So now they step into the underdog role for the first time this season, a role that has seen them cover 12 of 20 games since 2000 as an away underdog. Iowa has won 4 of the last 5 games in this series but they lost last year's meeting 24-21 and will come into this game with 14 returning starters who are probably seeking some redemption against one of their old assistant coaches from a long time ago. Iowa comes into this game averaging 21.3 points per game this season and they have done that on 341.3 total yards and 4.9 yards per play which is not all that impressive but not bad considering all the injuries. Wisconsin has yet to play a threatening opponent this season yet they have allowed 21.7 points per game on the season and have done it by allowing 337.0 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play. That's quite a few yards per play considering who they have faced. On the ground is where Iowa has had some success as they average 161.0 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry with RBs Albert Young and Damien Sims carrying the load. Wisconsin has allowed 109.3 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry but if either Sims or Young can pass level 1 and get to the linebackers, they should both be able to break big time runs in this game. In the air, QB Jake Christensen has completed 56.0% of his passes this season for 529 yards, 6.3 yards per pass attempt and 5 touchdowns (1 interception) which is why I think he can have a good game in this one. Wisconsin's pass defense has been average at best as they have allowed opposing QBs to complete 63.6% of their passes for 6.9 yards per pass attempt. That's just way too many leverage yards to allow against a team like Iowa that could virtually breakout of their shell in this game. They have fumbled the ball only one time this season, thrown only 2 interceptions and take only 5.3 penalties per game. Iowa is much better than the odds indicate and they'll bounce back nicely in this game with a big time upset win.
The Wisconsin Badgers have not exactly had it tough yet this season as they have faced Washington State in the opener, UNLV on the road in their second game and I-AA Citadel at home last week. Of course they are 3-0 to start the season (1-1 ATS) but im not sure that I trust this team as much as the line says they should be trusted or as much as a lot of people think they should be trusted. They look very sluggish at times against Citadel last weekend before eventually pulling away and winning that game 45-31 but give up that many points against a I-AA team can surely mean bad things are to come. Iowa is not to be underestimated, specially not after the Badgers walked into their home and eeked out a win in last year's matchup. With the Heartland Trophy once again on the line in this game, I think Wisconsin is going to struggle like they did the last two times Iowa came to town and won 27-21 (2003) and 20-10 (2005). The Badgers are a good team, make no mistake about it, but Kirk Ferentz has won in this place in the past and coming off that loss last week and the loss to Wisconsin last year, I think Ferentz is the last person the Badgers want to see this week. Wisconsin comes into this game averaging 35.7 points per game this season on 432.3 total yards of offense and 6.2 yards per play which is pretty good. However, Iowa's defense has been lights out (despite playing shitty opponents) and they have allowed only 6.0 points per game so far this season on 212.7 yards of total offense and 3.5 yards per play. Wisconsin is going to have success running the football no matter who the opponent is because RB PJ Hill is a monster and he usually gets his 100+ yards per game. The Badgers average 215.0 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry but could be slowed down in this one against an Iowa defense that allows 62.7 rushing yards per game on only 2.1 yards per carry. In the air, QB Tyler Donovan has done a good job completing 62.7% of his passes this season for 623 yards, 8.3 yards per pass attempt and 6 touchdowns (0 interceptions). Although he has looked good, I think the mistakes are coming for Donovan in this one. Iowa's pass defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 59.3% of their passes this season for only 4.9 yards per pass attempt and they already have 4 interceptions in three games. If Donovan is not quick in the pocket, he's gonna be in big trouble against this defense who are very aggressive on the pass rush and who already have 9 sacks on the year. Iowa's defense is the best the Badgers have seen and I think they struggle enough that the game stays close.
Once again we have a complete overreaction by the oddsmakers to the big loss by Iowa last week. I didn't even have to look at the spread for the game and I coulda told you that Iowa State would keep it close and push the Hawkeyes to the brink, if not beat them, like it happens everytime they play in that stadium. Iowa has one of the best offensive lines in the Big 10 (possibly in the Country as well) and that should really help them get things going on the ground in this game. I also like the fact that they return 8 starters on defense which should give them enough of an experience boost to handle tough situations in this game. The Heartland Trophy is on the line in this one and if you check back in years past...apart from last season when Wisconsin was favored anyways, Iowa and Kirk Ferentz have completely dominated this rivalry and I don't think they are about to lose two of these in consecutive seasons. Iowa loves the role of away underdog while Wisconsin has not really played all that well when favored at home by big numbers in conference play the last few years. Iowa for me guys in what should be a thriller.
Trend of the Game: Iowa is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs.
Iowa 28, Wisconsin 27
Minnesota Golden Gophers +14 (10 Units)
The Purdue Boilermakers have completely demolished my ass this season with their high scoring ways but I am stubborn and I refuse to believe that they are one of the top teams in the Big 10. They have scored at least 45 points in each of their first three games and have pretty much gone up against teams who don't know the first thing about playing defense. Well that doesn't sound much different from this game against Minnesota but some things do change coming into this week and I want to talk a bit about those later on. Purdue opened the seasonby blowing Toledo out of the water with a 52-24 win as -6 point favorites. They followed that up with a 52-6 win over I-AA Eastern Illinois and took my money to the bank last week with a 45-22 win over Central Michigan last week as -21.5 point favorites. So they are 2-0 ATS on the season but if you watched their last game against Central Michigan, the Boiler makers made way too many mistakes and if they make those kinds of mistakes in this game, they could be in for some trouble. Purdue is 7-1 versus Minnesota under coach Tiller and 9-1 in Big 10 Conference opening games. The Boilermakers come into this game averaging a whopping 49.7 points per game this season and they have done it on 534.7 total yards of offense and 6.9 yards per play. Minnesota is probably one of the worst teams in the Big 10 this season but they do return 9 starters on defense and have some experience to work with. The Gophers have looked terrible on defense allowing 36.3 points per game so far this season on 557.3 total yards per game and 6.7 yards per play but the only way to go is up and I think they start to play better in this game. On the ground, Purdue has rushed for 215.0 yards per game this season on a whopping 5.9 yards per carry. However, Minnesota's defensive line has done a pretty damn good job allowing only 125.0 rushing yards per game on only 3.7 yards per carry. With a slowed down rushing attack Purdue is not the same and if Minnesota can hold them like they have held opponents that will put a lot of pressure on QB Curtis Painter. The third year Junior has played well this season completing 68.6% of his passes for 952 yards, 8.1 yards per pass attempt and 13 touchdowns (0 interceptions). Painter should pass for a ton of yards again in this one as Minnesota's secondary has allowed 8.6 yards per pass attempt this season and opponents are completing 60.6% of their passes against them. What I do like about Minnesota's defensive chances are that Purdue has lost 6 fumbles this season and the Gophers have 4 interceptions on the year. Turnovers and points are going to be key in this one and I think for once Purdue is somewhat tied down to a lower point total.
The Minnesota Gophers should probably be underdogs of 30 points to any team with half an offense whether they are playing at home or on the road. That's the general perception of how this team has done so far this season and I don't blame anyone for thinking Purdue is going to blow the socks off these guys. However, despite starting the season off 1-2 straight up and 0-3 ATS, the Gophers have done some good things on the offensive side of the ball and as soon as their defense decides it's time to show up for any of their games, they'll probably do some much better things. Minnesota has been to overtime in both their home games so far this year losing the home opener 32-31 against Bowling Green before bouncing back from that and beating Miami Ohio 41-35 to avoid the embarassment of losing to a MAC Conference team at home two weeks in a row. Minnesota then went on the road and lost to Sun Belt opponent Florida Atlantic. Yikes. Everytime these two teams meet it seems like the games stay close so I really like our chances on the Gophers here seeing how they have already been to overtime twice this season. Minnesota comes into this game averaging a very nice 37.0 points per game this season on 497.0 total yards of offense and 6.1 yards per play. That tells me that they have a very good chance of keeping things close in this one because if you have the offense to challenge Purdue, you can do some big things. The Boilermakers have allowed 17.3 points per game this season and allowed only 342.3 total yards of offense on 4.4 yards per play. Minnesota's running attack has been deadly this season averaging 237.0 rushing yards per game on 5.4 yards per carry. However, expect them to slow down a bit in this one as Purdue has allowed 118.7 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry this season. In the air is where I think things can happen for the Gophers. QB Adam Weber has completed 60.0% of his passes this season for 780 passing yards, 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 10 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Purdue's defense has allowed opponents to complete 54.4% of their passes this season for 4.9 yards per pass attempt but I think Weber can really punch some holes in this secondary. On top of all those passing stats, Weber has rushed for 195 yards on 4.6 yards per carry and that is something Purdue has not seen yet this season. The dual threat is going to give them problems and I like Weber to throw a bunch of bombs in this one. Turnovers have been a problem for Minnesota but it has been for Purdue as well so I don't expect that to be the difference in this game. Minnesota plays their best game of the season on both sides of the ball in this one.
TRAP TRAP TRAP! That's all I have to say about this game because you and me both know this line makes absolutely no sense and you have to dig a bit deeper to find out why this is a great matchup for the Gophers. You have to understand that no matter how good or bad these two teams are when they meet and no matter which team is heading in which direction, the games are almost always close. Looking back on past meetings, four of the last six games between these two has been decided by seven or less points which clearly tells me that we are probably heading in that direction once more. Minnesota is the kind of team that is going to play up to their opponents level all season or play down to their opponents level all season. That makes them a very enticing underdog wager and it's going to be like that most of the year. If you watched the Purdue-Central Michigan game last week you will know that had the Chippewas offense showed up in the first half of the game, it would have probably ended a lot closer than it was. Minnesota's offense has proven itself this year and I think they can keep this close and maybe even pull off the shocker.
Trend of the Game: The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Minnesota 38, Purdue 28
WEEKLY RECAP
Miami -2
Oklahoma -23 ***WEEKNIGHT PLAY OF THE WEEK***
North Carolina +13.5
Notre Dame +11.5 ***RIVALRY PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Penn State -3
Kentucky +7
Georgia +3.5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK*
Iowa +8
Minnesota +14
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
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MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 20-16-1 (+24.30 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2 (-0.40 Units)
Last 2 weeks: 14-7-1 ATS (+58.50 Units)
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. Not the kind of start I was looking for but after observing and watching things play out this past weekend, I think it helped a lot of grow as cappers and Im a big believer in the 'watch and learn' type of theory. The rule changes didn't make much of a difference but new coaches did (Dantonio was impressive) and I would love to turn things around this week with the help of my new little friend. Anybody remember my PS2 simulations a while back? Almost time to bring them back for good. Yeah right! LOL!
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Thursday, September 20
Miami Hurricanes -2 (5 Units)
The Texas A&M Aggies come into this Nationally Televised game as the #18 ranked team in the Country. They are 3-0 with a 1-1 ATS record heading into Miami but they have yet to face an opponent even worth mentionining in this writeup. Beating the crap out of I-AA Montana State is nice and beating the crap out of UL Monroe is also nice but struggling to beat Fresno State is not good news considering what that program has become the last two or three years. If we look back at how Texas A&M has done in away road games against non-conference opponents the last few years, you will notice that the Aggies beat Pittsburgh 14-12 as a -3 favorite in 2002, they lost to Virginia Tech 35-19 as a +13 underdog in 2003, they lost 41-21 to Utah as a +8 underdog in 2004, they lost to Clemson 25-24 as a -1 point favorite in 2005 (no away game versus non-conference in 2006). That makes them 0-4 ATS in away games versus non-conferene since 2002 and on top of that, they are only 5-15 ATS away from home as an underdog under head coach Dennis Franchione. That's really not that good. The Aggies come into this game averaging a whopping 46.3 points per game but don't forget who they have played against. They have done that on 446.0 total yards of offense and 6.0 yards per play. Despite allowing a lot of points against Oklahoma, Miami's defense has actually been pretty solid allowing only 303.0 total yards of offense per game for 4.8 yards per play. We all know the Aggies love to run the ball and they have proved that with their 298.3 rushing yards per game and 6.4 yards per carry. Well just ask anyone who tried to run on Miami this year and they'll tell you it's tough against a defense that has allowed only 108.7 rushing yards per game on 2.9 yards per carry. That makes them a lot less effective and it means that QB Stephen McGee has to throw a lot more than he is used to. McGee has completed only 54.5% of his passes this season for 428 yards, 5.6 yards per pass attempt and 2 touchdowns (1 interception). Not too bad. He is up against a Miami defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 61.0% of their passes for 7.6 yards per pass attempt. So expect McGee to pass for well over 200 yards in this game but this all comes down to how stubborn the Aggies really are and if they are willing to move away from the run that much. Miami has 6 interceptions on the year and they also have 6 sacks...so we know they can make big plays. Regardless, the Aggies are going to score points in this game but they will struggle to move the chains when it matters and Miami's defense is going to come up with a few big plays to secure the big win.
Randy Shannon's debut as the head coach of the Miami Hurricanes has been very much Jekyll and Hyde and it's hard to figure out why. The Canes kicked off the year with a very impressive 31-3 win over Marshall at home but then went on the road and got blown out of the water by what I say is the best team in the Country right now (Oklahoma beat them 51-13). Then last week in a rematch of sorts, the Hurricanes beat Florida International (one of the worst D-1 teams in the Nation) by only 14 points. So the last two games have not been impressive and the Canes are only 1-2 ATS on the year but this is a great chance for Randy Shannon to showcase himself and his team in front of a National TV audience. Since the year 2000, the Miami Hurricanes are a perfect 9-0 straight up when playing on a Thursday Night and this is also another one of those wacky situations where the Canes play three straight home games. I mention that because Miami is 18-1 in their last 19 games that are part of a three game homestand so a lot of good factors point towards a Miami win in tonight's game. The Hurricanes come into this game averaging 22.3 points per game which is not bad at all and they have done it on 302.7 total yards of offense but more importantly on 5.1 yards per play which means that if they can run more plays, they'll definitely have more succcess on that side of the ball. The Texas A&M Aggies have yet to face anyone of any significance yet they have allowed 22.0 points per game this season on 384.7 total yards and 4.9 yards per play. On the ground, Miami RB's Javarris Jones and Graig Cooper have led this team to 172.0 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry. That's most definitely good news for Canes backers because Texas A&M relies too heavily on their defensive line to make big stops and if Cooper or Jones get into the second level (linebackers) they can do some serious damage against a defense that has allowed 154.7 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry this season. In the air, QB Kyle Wright is back in the driver's seat and he has completed 51.5% of his passes for 289 yards, 8.8 yards per pass attempt and 2 touchdowns (2 interceptions as well). Nothing impressive but definitely better than Kirby Freeman and I'll take his leadership over Freeman's anyday. There is no doubt in my mind that Wright can have a huge game against somewhat of a weak secondary. Texas A&M's defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 58.1% of their passes for 6.6 yards per pass attempt and they have 4 interceptions. The only problem for them is that Miami's offensive line is outstanding and the Aggies don't have enough power pressure guys to force Wright into making the mistakes he usually makes. As long as Miami can keep things on the ground and pound away early in this game, the air attack will take care of itself and both WR's Darnell Jenkins and Lance Leggett will make some big plays. Miami will surprisingly have one of their best offensive outputs in a long time (have scored 30+ points only three times since the beginning of last season).
It's not a known secret that if you can shut down the run against Dennis Franchione run teams, you are going to have some success. Miami's defensive line and their group of LB's have done an outstanding job against the run this season and seeing how Texas A&M has yet to prove that they can have an effective passing attack, the Aggies are going to struggle big time once Miami shuts down their ground attack. As mentioned before, Franchione is 5-15 ATS as a road underdog since the beginning of his tenure here in 2003 and he has yet to prove that he can win on the road, let alone win or cover spread against non-conference opponents on the road (0-3 ATS since he began here). I also pointed out that Miami is a perfect 9-0 straight up when playing on a Thursday Night since the year 2000 and it looks like they have the upper hand in the matchup tonight. Miami's running attack is going to be a lot more effective than Texas A&M's in this one and Kyle Wright will see that when the running game works, some much better avenues usually open up in the passing game. This is on National TV and the Canes are gonna make a Randy Shannon like statement with a big win.
Trend of the Game: Texas A&M is 5-15 ATS on the road as an underdog under head coach Dennis Franchione.
Miami 45, Texas A&M 35
Friday, September 21
Oklahoma Sooners -23 (25 Units) ***WEEKNIGHT PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Where do I begin with this team? Well not only do I think these guys are off to the most impressive start of any team in the Nation this season but I think that Oklahoma is by far the best team in the Nation right now and it would be tough to argue who should play for the National Title should Oklahoma, LSU and USC all end up with perfect records or only one loss. Regardless, I do know for sure that with Bob Stoops there is no room for error on this team and losing a game is not an option at this point the season. The Sooners are a perfect 3-0 ATS to kickoff the year as they demolished North Texas by 69 points in their opener, followed that up with an impressive 38 point win over the Miami Hurricanes and are now coming off a 51 point shallacking of Utah State. So the competition has not been that great but the same can be said about some other teams who have not won convincgly enough to earn higher rankings. The last two seasons were somewhat of a disaster for this dominating program and both seasons Oklahoma lost their first road game of the year. Well that's not happening to Bob Stoops this year and I think he looks to make a statement here. The Sooners come into this game averaging a whopping 61.3 points per game this season and they have done it on 565.3 total yards of offense per game but more impressively 7.8 yards per play. That's really bad news for Tulsa because they have allowed 32.0 points per game this season and they have allowed 486.0 total yards of offense and 6.2 yards per play this season. Ouch! On the ground, the Sooners have dominated teams and rushed for 241.0 yards per game and a whopping 5.6 yards per carry. RB's DeMarco Murray, Patrick Allen and Mossis Madu have combined for 550 rushing yards, 8 touchdowns and all have more than 6.6 yards per carry. Tulsa is in deep shit here as they have allowed 184.5 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry. QB Sam Bradford is off to an outstanding start as a Sooner as he has completed 79.7% of his passes this season for 824 passing yards, a crazy 11.1 yards per pass attempt and 11 touchdown passes (1 interception). WOW! Tulsa's pass defense has actually done a decent job this season as they have held opponents to a 51.9% pass completion rate but have also let opponents drop 7.6 yards per pass attempt on them in the process. Seeing how Tulsa doesn't have any real good pressure guys on their defensive line, Bradford is going to have all day to pass the ball downfield and I expect him to connect for some big time yardage on a few occasions in this one. It won't be a huge passing day for Bradford because the running game will be so effective that passing the ball will become virtually useless. The only concern with the Sooners has been the 5 fumbles they have lost this season but Stoops looks like he has things under control here and I trust that he can lead them to another blowout win.
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane come into this Friday Night Lights special off a huge win over BYU last weekend that saw them put 47 points up on the board. Todd Graham is the new head coach of Tulsa this season and so far, so good is what people are saying in Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane are 2-0 to start the season and that is 2-0 ATS as well despite returning only 10 starters from last season. Well their two opponents, UL Monroe and BYU are both going to have decent seasons this year but let's not kid ourselves into thinking that they are anywhere near the kind of talent Tulsa is going to see when they take the field against the Sooners. In their last three meetings with Stoops and Oklahoma, Tulsa has managed to score only 15 points and have been outscored 126-15 in those games. The last two times Oklahoma has come to Tulsa to play against the Hurricane, they have shut them out although that probably won't happen tonight, it's going to take a while before Tulsa has a clue what is going on in this game. Unlike most teams, Tulsa has already had their week off and they do not have a look-ahead game to think about...this is the big one. The Golden Hurrican come into this game averaging 45.0 points per game through two games to open the season and they have done it by averaging 559.0 total yards of offense and 7.2 yards per play. Very impressive to say the least. However, Oklahoma's defense is one of the best in the Nation and they have allowed only 8.7 points per game in three games to open the season and have allowed only 181.0 total yards of offense per game on 2.9 yards per play. You can't find better than that anywhere in the Nation. Tulsa RB Courteney Tennial is an Oklahoma transfer but he is out for the season and RB Tarrion Adams has led this team to 160.5 rushing yards per game for 3.6 yards per carry. I think Tennial is going to be the only bright spot on this offense tonight as he rushed for close to 100 yards against a Sooners defense that has allowed only 44.0 rushing yards per game and 1.3 yards per carry. In the air, QB Paul Smith is one of the best offensive players in the CUSA as he has completed 65.2% of his passes for 761 passing yards, 11.1 yards per pass attempt and 8 touchdowns (2 interceptions) in only two games this season. He is up against an Oklahoma defense that has held opponents to a 51.8% pass completion rating and a defense that has held opponents to 4.8 yards per pass attempt. Smith is going to struggle for the first time this season as he will face pressure from all sides and will certainly run out of time to get rid of the ball. Smith has thrown 15 interceptions the last two seasons (16 if you count the one this year) and Oklahoma already has 5 interceptions this year and a very aggressive secondary. Tulsa will score some points in this one but they won't come until late and by then Oklahoma should have a comfortable 30 point lead.
Oklahoma has one of the most dominant and most powerful ground attacks in the Nation and they are up against a team that is one of the worst in the Nation against the run. What else do you need to know about this game anyways? DeMarco Murray and his crew of running backs are going to combined for well over 300 rushing yards in this game and as long as they can control the clock and keep their defense fresh, there is no chance that Tulsa can be effective enough on the offensive side of things so I don't see them coming close to the numbers they have put up so far this season. As a matter of fact Tulsa is going to struggle to put up 300 yards of offense in this game (Oklahoma has allowed less than 200 per game) even though they have some of the top offensive players in the CUSA Conference. Tulsa has been shutout the last two times at home against Oklahoma and out of the top three teams in the Nation this year (USC, LSU, Oklahoma), the Sooners have by far the most dangerous overall attack on offense. This should be a fun game to watch and even though a huge amount of public players are going to be on Oklahoma, it's the only way to go in this one.
Trend of the Game: Oklahoma is 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.
Oklahoma 56, Tulsa 21
Saturday, September 22
North Carolina Tar Heels +13.5 (10 Units)
The North Carolina Tar Heels are not going to be a popular choice to win this football game and I probably don't blame a lot of you for being on South Florida in this game. However, this game goes a lot deeper than just looking at who these teams have played against and what they have done so far this season. North Carolina is a very young team playing for first year new head coach Butch Davis who found absolutely no success coaching at the NFL level with the Cleveland Browns. Butch will always be remembered for the work he did at Miami and how he put together some pretty damn good teams there that got them off probation. Now he is dealing with a North Carolina team that went only 3-9 last season and that has only 8 wins the last two years. Only 9 starters return this season for the Tar Heels but for such a young team they have done a pretty damn good job so far and I think they can really compete in this game. Davis brought in some big time recruits and give these guys a few years and they'll be a good team. If you watched parts of the Tar Heels 37-20 loss to South Florida, you will remember that they had a 7-0 lead and did look good for quite some time in that game. The Tar Heels come into this game averaging a very respectable 29.3 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 383.0 total yards of offense and 6.5 yards per play. South Florida's defense is a lot better than most people think it is and they have allowed only 18.0 points per game this season on 275.5 total yards and 3.6 yards per play. On the ground, North Carolina has been atrocious running the ball for 79.7 yards per game and only 2.7 yards per carry. RB Johnny White (redshirt freshman) has been the only bright spot and he could reach the 100 yard plateau in this one against a Bulls defense that allows 83.0 rushing yards per game on 2.5 yards per carry. White has done a great job this season and UNC has to run the ball if they want things to move in the air. QB TJ Yates (also a redshirt freshman) has been pretty damn good this season completing 65.9% of his passes for a whopping 901 passing yards, 10.2 yards per pass attempt and 9 touchdowns (3 interceptions). It's gonna be tough for Yates to match those numbers here because South Florida have allowed their opponents to complete only 54.5% of their passes this season for only 4.4 yards per pass attempt. What I do like however is that he will have time to throw (USF has only 3 sacks on the year) and Yates has shown and proven to be a playmaker. He doesn't need to do anything big in this game...he just needs to keep things simple and keep this offense moving. It won't be easy but Yates has one of the best receiving corps in the ACC this season and he won't shy away from using them to win this game.
The South Florida Bulls were considered by some experts as being darkhorse National Title Contenders should USC, LSU and Oklahoma all mess up and should the Bulls sweep their schedule and go 12-0. Well Jim Leavitt and his guys are on the right track right now as they are 2-0 (1-0 ATS) to start the season and coming off another huge upset win, this one over the Auburn Tigers two weeks ago. So the Bulls have had a full week extra to sit around and gloat about how good they really are but not realizing that they probably don't match up all that well with the Tar Heels in this game. Raymond James Stadium has been friendly to the Bulls over the course of their tenure here as they are now 45-10 in this place and not many teams have been able to walk in there and beat them. The Bulls are now 11-6 ATS as home favorites since beginning I-A play back in 2001 but they are only 2-4 ATS in home games when favored by double d's since the 2002 season. Not a good sign. It means that oddsmakers tend to overreact to the way they have played. Right now beating Auburn doesn't look like much seeing how the Tigers just lost again last weekend to Mississippi State. The Bulls come into this game averaging 27.0 points per game this season and they have done that on 347.0 total yards of offense per game but only 4.7 yards per play. North Carolina has done a decent job on defense considering they have only 4 returning starters as they have allowed 23.3 points per game on 356.7 total yards of offense and 4.9 yards per play. On the ground, RB Mike Ford has led this team to 141.5 rushing yards per game on 41.5 carries per game and 3.4 yards per carry. However, North Carolina's defense is run tested as opponents have averaged 42.7 rushes against them this season and averaged 137.0 rushing yards per game for only 3.2 yards per carry. That's wont work for USF in this one. That means QB Matt Grothe is going to have to do it himself. Grothe has completed 62.1% of his passes for 422 yards, 6.1 yards per pass attempt and 3 touchdowns. He should have no problems passing all over this South Florida secondary who have allowed opponents to complete 69.2% of their passes this season for 7.2 yards per pass attempt. The Tar Heels don't provide much pressure up front and they drop back too far in coverage. I know Grothe can pass for 300+ yards in this game if he wants to but it won't mean that the Bulls can run the ball and if they keep North Carolina in this game early, the Tar Heels have enough talent to pull off the upset.
It's really hard to cover by double d's at home when you don't have one of the top offenses in your conference. Like I mentioned before, South Florida is only 2-4 ATS as a home favorite of more than 10 points since 2002 despite going 11-6 ATS at home since 2001. Not only do the Bulls average 36 less yards of offense per game than North Carolina this season but they also average 1.8 less yards per play and that could be a pretty big problem for a team trying to cover such a large spread by their standards. North Carolina's defense is not all that good but a team like USF is going to have problems exposing their weaknesses in this game. Brandon Tate is one of the top return guys in the ACC for North Carolina and if USF is not careful, he won't shy away from giving the Tar Heels good field position when they start most of their drives. North Carolina is very young but Butch Davis did a great job last week against Virginia and he did a great job against East Carolina, despite losing both games. I know USF has the talent to compete with just about anyone in the Country but this is a bit of a letdown game as well as a possible look-ahead scenario with WVU on deck next week.
Trend of the Game: North Carolina is 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog.
North Carolina 33, South Florida 21
Notre Dame Fighting Irish +11.5 (25 Units) ***RIVALRY PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Michigan State Spartans are off and flying to one of their best starts in years and by the looks of things it has quite a bit to do with the arrival (or return we should say) of Mark Dantonio to the Big 10. The Spartans come into this game with a 3-0 record on the year but the fact that they are only 1-2 ATS tells me that they are a bit overvalued by oddsmakers and being favored by this many points in South Bend is a bit ridiculous. Michigan State looked damn good against a very young and inexperienced UAB team in the season opener but they have looked a bit sluggish in their last two games beating Bowling Green by only 11 points as a -17.5 favorite and beating Pittsburgh by only 4 points as a -10.5 favorite last week. Michigan State is a paltry 3-9 ATS as a road favorite over the last seven seasons and I don't see how Mark Dantonio can make enough of a difference to change that around. Sure Michigan State has won five straight games in South Bend and they have dominated this series overall but circumstance takes over in this instance and I think Michigan State is going to struggle against a hungry Fighting Irish team. The Spartans come into this game averaging 33.3 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 437.3 total yards of offense per game on 5.8 yards per play. As poor as the numbers look for Notre Dame's defense, they are not all that bad considering that their offense has yet to really crack the 150 yards of offense mark more than once. Notre Dame has allowed 34.0 points against this season on 351.3 total yards of offense but only 5.0 yards per play. On the ground, RBs Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick have been on a tear and led this team to 194.7 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry. Notre Dame has struggled badly against the run allowing 237.3 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry but I see a definite improvement in this game. I actually think the Irish can have their best defensive showing of the season in this game as Michigan State's offensive line is exposed for the weaker unit that they are. In the air, QB Brian Hoyer has completed 60.8% of his passes for 634 yards, 8.6 yards per pass attempt and 3 touchdowns (2 interceptions). Without the usual success on the ground, Hoyer will have to do a lot more against a defense that has allowed opponents to complete only 48.4% of their passes for only 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Hoyer has shown that he does not produce as well under pressure and Notre Dame should force him into mistakes in this game. The Irish have recovered 4 fumbles this season and this should be MSU's worst showing yet.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are not as bad as everyone is making them out to be. Well okay yeah maybe they are but only on the offensive side of things. Their defense has done a much better job than they are getting credit for and for the first time this year I really think the Irish can come out of their collective shells and make a splash like they were supposed to do in the first three games of the season. The Irish looked horrendous against Georgia Tech in a 33-3 season opening loss at home. They then went on the road and lost 31-10 against a very good Penn State team and then on the road again to the Big House only to lose 38-0 to a pissed off Michigan team. So thinks really can't get any worse for this team and that is one of the main reasons I am betting on them in this game. Notre Dame is a perfect 1-0 ATS under Charlie Weiss as home underdogs in his two and a half years as head coach here and that's something you really need to keep in mind (never count out the Irish). If the Irish are looking for inspiration, they should look no further than their win in East Lansing last year when they came back to win from 16 points down in the fourth quarter. The Irish come into this game averaging a pathetic 4.3 points per game and they have done that on only 126.0 total yards per game and 2.2 yards per play. Once again, the only way to go is up for this offense. Michigan State has allowed 16.0 points per game this season and they have done that on 286.7 total yards and 4.2 yards per play which is again not saying much considering who they have played against. On the ground, the Irish average only 6.3 yards per game on 0.2 yards per carry. Huh? Okay well forget about that since Michigan State allows only 2.8 yards per carry. This is all about QB Jimmy Claussen's breaking out party in the passing attack. Claussen has really not been all that bad and gets to make his first home start of his career having completed 58.5% of his passes this season for 252 yards, 4.6 yards per pass attempt and no touchdown passes. Well I see him passing for 200+ yards in this game against a Michigan State secondary that has allowed opponents to complete 56.4% of their passes for 5.4 yards per pass attempt. As long as the offensive line can holdoff the Michigan State pass rush that as 12 sacks up to this point, Claussen should feel more comfortable in the pocket on his own home turf. Notre Dame is going to come out and play a lot better than they have this season and like I said before, welcome to college football Jimmy Claussen...should be his best game to date.
I don't care who has done what or has won this or lost this up to this point in the season. This is a brand new seasons for Charlie Weiss and the Notre Dame football team starting with this game and although most people don't think they can win until November comes calling, I think some of you guys are dead wrong and I think this is the best game they are going to play up to this point. What more do I have to tell you other than the fact that Michigan State is 3-9 ATS the last seven seasons as a road favorite and that this is not the kind of number you want to be laying on this team. No matter what anyone says about Notre Dame, the only reason they have allowed so many points per game and looked so bad defensively is because their offense has been putrid and has not been able to move the chains and help the defense. Other than that, Notre Dame's defense is pretty damn good and they are going to cause problems for Michigan State and Brian Hoyer all afternoon. I really think Weiss can rally the troops and lead them to a win in this game, if not, there is no way Michigan State walks in here and wins by more than a few points. Bank this one as a big one baby! I guarantee Notre Dame's first offensive touchdown of the season to go along with 250+ yards of offense.
Trend of the Game: Michigan State is 4-28 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing 200+ rushing yards.
Notre Dame 23, Michigan State 6
Penn State Nittany Lions -3 (5 Units)
The Penn State Nittany Lions are looking pretty damn good right now and unless something goes seriously wrong from here on in, there is no reason why they can't win the very weak looking BIG 10 this seasons. Not only are they 3-0 to start the year (2-1 ATS) but this Michigan game become very winnable all of a sudden and they get to host Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin and Purdue while playing road games against Illinois, Indiana, Temple and Michigan State. So like I said things are looking pretty damn bright and Joe Patterno knows how important this game is if they want a shot at that BIG 10 title. Penn State has yet to play against a real opponent so it's tough to tell if they are the real deal or not but the way they have won their games has been damn impressive and there is no reason why they can't avenge last season's close 17-10 home loss to Michigan by winning this game. The Nittany Lions have not won in Ann Arbor or at all against Michigan since 1996 making that an eight game losing streak. So this is as big a game as it gets for Penn State. The Nittany Lions come into this game averaging a whopping 45.0 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 412.3 total yards of offense on 5.5 yards per play. Michigan's defense is coming off a shutout of Notre Dame but the Irish offense has been horrendous and the Wolverines are still allowing 24.3 points per game on 374.3 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play. On the ground, Penn State has done a pretty damn good job running the ball as they average 197.0 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry. Michigan's run defense has allowed 172.7 rushing yards per game this season on 4.1 yards per carry so expect RBs Rodney Kinlaw and Austin Scott to have some success in this game but as not as much as the passing attack. In the air, QB Anthony Morelli has completed 63.2% of his passes for 628 yards, 7.2 yards per pass attempt with 8 touchdowns and 1 interception. I think Morelli is going to have one of his best game as a Nittany Lion as Michigan's secondary has allowed opposing QB's to complete 66.2% of their passes so far this season for 8.5 yards per pass attempt. There is no holding back for Morelli in this game...this is his last chance to make things happen for Penn State before leaving the school. Michigan does have 4 interceptions on the year and 5 sacks but Morelli has a great set of receivers who should really help him with the pass rush and the short routes. What has impressed me the most is that Penn State has taken only 4.3 penalties per game this season and discipline in the big house usually takes you pretty far. Expect Paterno to have studied tapes from the Oregon and App State games closely and if he knows what he's doing, he'll unleash Morelli on this Wolverines defense that has been soft.
The Michigan Wolverines gave their fans some hope last week when they earned their first win of the season by beating Notre Dame 38-0 in the Big House. Well I know it looks like a breath of fresh air for Lloyd Carr and his guys but let's screw our head caps on properly here and let's recognize that problems don't just get solved over a period of one week. So you're telling me that all of a sudden the Wolverines defense is up to snuff with everyone else and all of a sudden they can stop teams that have good passing quarterbacks with a decent rushing attack to back it up? I don't think so. Last week's win over Notre Dame was inevitable and wasn't much now that you consider what other teams have done against the same Irish team. Michigan is now 1-2 on the season with a 1-1 ATS record and they will probably have some kind of confidence in this game knowing that they have knocked off Penn State eight straight times. I don't buy the trend though because it's been a while since Penn State has had the paper advantage over the Wolverines and this time I think it means something. Since 2000, Michigan has been a home underdog only once and that was a 25-21 loss to Ohio State. The Wolverines come into this game averaging 25.7 points per game on 407.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.1 yards per play. Penn State's defense is one of the best in the Conference if not in the Nation and they have allowed only 11.3 points per game and did that by allowing only 217.7 total yards of offense per game on 3.4 yards per play this season. On the ground, RB Mike Hart is the one and only bright spot on this team and even though Penn State allows only 17.7 rushing yards per game so far this year for 0.6 yards per carry, I think Hart is going to have another big game and rush for 100+ yards. However, it didn't matter last week but it will matter this week that QB Chad Henne is out of action. Ryan Mallett is in again and he has completed only 40.6% of his passes this season for 139 yards, only 4.3 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. That's nothing special. Penn State's linebacking unit and secondary are way above average and they have allowed opposing QBs to complete 58.6% of their passes this season for 6.1 yards per pass attempt. They have big time pressure packages that usually throw quarterbacks into a frenzy. The Nittany Lions defense has 17 sacks in three games and the Wolverines offensive line has allowed 5 sacks on the year so there is potential for big things. Penn State has also forced 11 fumbles this year and Michigan has lost 5 fumbles on the year so once again, the aggressive Penn State defense is going to give Michigan all sorts of problems.
The easy way to bet on this game would be to think that Michigan has their act together and that oddsmakers have lost their minds posting this kind of line. While that might be true, I still don't understand what makes anyone in their right minds think that the tide has turned for the Wolverines? It's very scary to go against a Michigan team that is 24-1 in their last 25 Big 10 opener but Michigan has pretty much broken every good/bad trend over the last few weeks and you can only expect the unexpected with this team so don't be shocked when that record moves to 24-2. My main concern in this game is that Michigan won't be able to stop Penn State's very potent passing and running attack. They had problems against the only two teams who could do both (Notre Dame can't do anything) and there's no reason to believe they'll have an easier time in this game. This is a very unfamiliar spot for Carr and his Wolverines because since 2000 they have been home underdogs only once and that was a loss to Ohio State. I really like Anthony Morelli to have a monster game this afternoon and when the dust settles on this shootout, the Nittany Lions should have the upper edge.
Trend of the Game: The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Penn State 56, Michigan 31
Kentucky Wildcats +7 (10 Units)
The Kentucky Wildcats were not considered to be as good as last year's team that went 8-5 and returned 15 starters combined on both sides of the ball...oh yeah and they went 6-4-1 ATS but from the looks of things in this early season, the Wildcats have been pretty damn good. Kentucky is 3-0 on the season and not only have they won those games but they have looked damn impressive in those wins and owna 2-0 ATS record (one as an underdog and one as a favorite). So what's with the knocking from SEC experts who were saying that there is no chance of them having the kind of season they did last year? The Wildcats shut everyone up by beating Louisville last week 40-34 at home and if that doesn't have the confidence of this team sky high, I don't know what will do the trick. For the first time in about 20 years last year, the Wildcats won their SEC opening game and I think they can follow suit this year. The two games Kentucky played on the road against non ranked conference opponents last few years were a 34-31 win over Missisippi State and a 48-43 win over Vanderbilt, a 13-7 loss to Mississippi and a 44-16 loss to South Carolina. So as you can see, only one of those games was lost by more than 6.5 points over the last two seasons. The Wildcats come into this game averaging 48.7 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging a whopping 502.7 total yards of offense and 6.9 yards per play. Arkansas' defense has not been good at all this year allowing a whopping 33.5 points per game and allowing 413.5 total yards of offense per game on 5.2 yards per play. On the ground, the top five rushers on Kentucky are all averaging more than 7.0 yards per carry and each have at least one touchdown this season. That means they average 246.7 rushing yards per game on 6.3 yards per carry which could be a big problem for Arkansas because they have allowed 142.0 rushing yards per game on the season for 4.4 yards per carry. In the air, QB Andre Woodson is definitely one of the best five quaterbacks in the Nation having completed 67.0% of his 97 pass attempts for 738 passing yards, 7.6 yards per pass attempt, 9 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Wow! Well Arkansas has been pretty good against the pass allowing opposing QBs to complete only 43.6% of thier passes for 5.8 yards per pass attempt but that was only Troy and Alabama...who both have mediocre looking quarterbacks at best. Woodson has been sacked 6 times this season but Arkansas doesn't have much of a pass rush and have only 1 sack on the year. They do have an aggressive secondary that already has 3 interceptions but Woodson is as smart as it gets and he's going to shine with some big time plays to the six players who have caught TD passes this season. Kentucky is not about to slow down in hog country.
The Arkansas Razorbacks almost gave a bunch of us some heart attacks last week when they pushed Alabama to the brink, came all the way back from a huge deficit and eventually lost on a last second touchdown by the Tide hooking us up with a very scary PUSH on the -3 for Alabama. That effort by the Razorbacks was very impressive but it was also very demoralizing to come all the way back and have things look so damn good only to blow some assignments on the last drive of the game and still lose in dramatic fashion. The Razorbacks are now 1-1 ATS on the year (they graded it +3.5 last game for many although us early birds had the -3) and now it's time to open SEC play at home against a very tough Kentucky Wildcats team. Arkansas won every single game against SEC East opponents in 2006 but that was with a whopping 18 starters combined back on both sides of the ball and this season they have only 12 starters back and do not have the same kind of team as they did last year. I don't really understand the line for this game seeing how the Razorbacks have injury concerns and seeing how they do not match up well with this Kentucky team. The Razorbacks come into the game averaging 42.0 points per game this season in their two games which is impressive. They have tallied 470.0 total yards of offense per game on 6.3 yards per play. Kentucky's defense has allowed only 21.3 points per game in their first three games this season and allowed only 371.3 total yards of offense on 5.1 yards per play. We all know what Arkansas can do on the ground with RB Darren McFadden but he is suffering from symptoms from a bad concussion and could see limited play in this one. Regardless, Arkansas can still run and they average 327.5 rushing yards per game on 6.3 yards per carry but again health is an issue here. Kentucky's run defense has not been good allowing 181.3 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry but to win this game, Arkansas has to pass. QB Casey Dick has completed only 51.2% of his passes for 234 yards, 5.7 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. With McFadden a big maybe for this game, Dick will have a bigger role than he has had to date in this one. Kentucky's defense has allowed opponent quarterbacks to complete only 54.4% of their passes for 5.5 yards per pass attempt and they have recorded 5 interceptions to this point. In their two games this season Arkansas has fumbled 6 times (lost 4 of them) so expect the Wildcats to be aggresive and go for the strip. I like Kentucky's defense to make a few big plays.
The irony here is that we are all expecting a big shootout between these two teams and the regular time score could easily eclipse the 7 overtime score of the last time these two teams met. That game saw the final score 70-63 go the way of the Razorbacks and the teams have not played since. Houston Nutt is a good coach but Arkansas has never really dominated at home as a favorite as they are 15-18 ATS in that spot since 2000 so don't expect big things. Kentucky looks like they can be one of those surprise teams this season as they looked great last week and are being dogged even more this week which is a bit of a surprise. They have one of the best quarterbacks in the Nation in Andre Woodson and have a plethora of running backs who can take it to the house (crazy rushing numbers this season). Arkansas has not shown that they can play any defense whatsoever in any of their two games and coming off that big loss against Alabama last week, the defense could be a bit tired and dejected which is really bad news when you're about to play against such an explosive offense. Should be a good one but in the end, Kentucky has too much fire power for these guys.
Trend of the Game: Kentucky is 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog.
Kentucky 65, Arkansas 49
Georgia Bulldogs +3.5 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Georgia Bulldogs played one bad game this season and now everyone is on their case and oddsmakers have pretty much written them off in this one. Well I don't buy it for one second because before the season started this was probably the most talented team in the SEC West and apart from their home loss to South Carolina a few weeks ago (did you all know that Steve Spurrier is 9-1 ATS in away games as head coach of South Carolina?) the Bulldogs have not had the chance to prove themselves to the college football world and I think this game is a great opportunity for them. The Bulldogs got to calm down last week as they took on I-AA opponent Western Carolina and demolished those guys 45-16. So after knocking the teeth out of two of their three opponents this season while losing in their only SEC matchup, the Bulldogs are ready for another divisional matchup...a game they can't really afford to lose if they want any chance at playing for the SEC Title at the end of the year. It's no secret that Georgia has always struggled when playing in Tuscaloosa (1-7 all-time) but they did win here in Mark Richt's only visit. Georgia comes into the game averaging 30.7 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 359.7 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play. Alabama's defense has been impressive so far (apart from their collapse a week ago against Arkansas) and they have allowed 18.0 points per game on 309.7 total yards of offense and only 4.4 yards per play. On the ground, Georgia has not really taken off the way we thought they would as they average only 136.7 rushing yards per game this season on a mediocre 3.7 yards per carry. However, redshirt freshman RB Knowshon Moreno is getting better by the game and I look for him to have an impact on an Alabama defense that has allowed 144.7 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry. Moreno is averaging 5.7 yards per carry so look for him to be feature in this one. In the air, QB Matthew Stafford has been so-so completing 58.0% of his passes this season for 621 yards, 7.1 yards per pass attempt and 4 touchdowns (1 interception). Alabama's pass defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 47.3% of their passes this season for 5.3 yards per pass attempt but Stafford is by far the best QB Alabama is going to have seen all season. The Crimson Tide have 4 sacks on the year which is not enough pressure to force a guy like Stafford into making big mistakes. The Bulldogs have been very good with turnovers this season and I look for them to come out swinging in this game. Alabama's defensive line is going to have problems in this game and I think Stafford is going to pass all over this defense once the ground attack softens things up.
The Alabama Crimson Tide escaped disaster last week when they scored a touchdown with eight seconds left on the clock to retake their blow lead and beat Arkansas 41-38. The Crimson Tide blew a 21 point lead and several other leads only to pretty much pull off a miracle and stay unbeaten on the year. They are now 3-0 under new head coach Nick Saban with a 1-1 ATS record. Over the last seven years, Alabama has never really proved top anyone that they can win at home and cover spreads as a favorite at the same time. Since 2002, the Crimson Tide are only 15-25 ATS when playing as the home favorite and although Nick Saban can probably turn things around eventually, his defense is still too young to hold the fort down in games like last week's and if they thought Arkansas was a tough out...they have no idea what they are in for against the Bulldogs of Georgia. I am also a big fan of fading teams that narrowly escaped both SU and ATS wins the week before when they go up against a team some people have already written off this early in the season. This could be one of the best game we get to see all day. Alabama comes into this game averaging 39.0 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 465.3 total yards of offense and 6.0 yards per play which is impressive considering their horrendous offensive woes the last few seasons. Georgia's defense is as young and inexperienced as Alabama's but they also have done a decent job and allowed only 15.3 points per game this season on only 260.3 total yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play. On the ground, Alabama has been running the ball all over their opponents and averaging 219.0 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry. However, Georgia has done a great job against the run this season allowing only 91.0 rushing yards per game on 2.7 yards per carry. I know RBs Terry Grant and Glen Coffee have been on a tear this season but I think they are going to struggle for yardage against this Georgia defensive line. In the air, QB John Parker Wilson has been average at best completing 56.1% of his passes for 666 yards (umm...do u really wanna bet on this guy with a number like this?), 6.8 yards per pass attempt and 4 touchdowns (2 interceptions). Well seeing how Parker-Wilson's role with this team is going to be increased in this game, he will probably have a good game against a Georgia defense that has allowed opposing QBs to complete 61.6% of their passes this season for 5.9 yards per pass attempt. However, Georgia's pass rush has really been on target this season as the Bulldogs have 8 sacks on the season and I really think that when Alabama tries to run the ball with their inexperienced running backs, that the Georgia line can get some penetration and force mistakes. They have already forced 7 fumbles this season and I look for them to pressure Alabama into making mistakes and throwing this game away.
THIS IS MY PLAY OF THE WEEK! I still think Georgia can take control of the SEC EAST and take their act to the SEC Title game at the end of the year. So many people keep talking about Georgia being 1-7 straight up all time in Tuscaloosa and 3-10-1 in their last 14 trips to Alabama but did you know that the only time they played in Alabama under head coach Mark Richt...they won 27-25 in 2002? Lady Luck was with Alabama last week and I don't know why so many of you are fond with them seeing how they looked terrible against Arkansas' offense and they buckled under pressure when the Razorbacks decided to pound things away on the ground. Alabama is a good team and Nick Saban is a good coach but Georgia's Mark Richt knows how important this game is because the Bulldogs really can't afford to go to 0-2 in SEC EAST play...that would mean their chances at the title are pretty much donzo. I think Georgia's offense is going to look a lot better than it did against South Carolina (very good defensive team) and I think Alabama is finally going to mess one of these games up like they teased last week.
Trend of the Game: Alabama is 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite.
Georgia 31, Alabama 12
Iowa Hawkeyes +8 (10 Units)
The Iowa Hawkeyes do not deserve the line they are getting in this game and I don't care what anyone says, oddsmakers are going to make some cash by dragging Wisconsin bettors down with them. I mean the Hawkeyes have one bad game and all of a sudden everyone forgets that they are 2-1 on the season and have covered the spread in both their wins. Then came the loss to Iowa State last week. Yes it was a bad loss because they were favored by -17.5 points in that game but we all know that anything can happen in a rivalry game and when was the last time Iowa State didn't take Iowa for a good run at home? Exactly. Prior to the loss the Hawkeyes beat Northern Illinois 16-3 as a -12 point favorite and then went back home for a 35-0 win over Syracuse as -24 point favorites. So now they step into the underdog role for the first time this season, a role that has seen them cover 12 of 20 games since 2000 as an away underdog. Iowa has won 4 of the last 5 games in this series but they lost last year's meeting 24-21 and will come into this game with 14 returning starters who are probably seeking some redemption against one of their old assistant coaches from a long time ago. Iowa comes into this game averaging 21.3 points per game this season and they have done that on 341.3 total yards and 4.9 yards per play which is not all that impressive but not bad considering all the injuries. Wisconsin has yet to play a threatening opponent this season yet they have allowed 21.7 points per game on the season and have done it by allowing 337.0 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play. That's quite a few yards per play considering who they have faced. On the ground is where Iowa has had some success as they average 161.0 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry with RBs Albert Young and Damien Sims carrying the load. Wisconsin has allowed 109.3 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry but if either Sims or Young can pass level 1 and get to the linebackers, they should both be able to break big time runs in this game. In the air, QB Jake Christensen has completed 56.0% of his passes this season for 529 yards, 6.3 yards per pass attempt and 5 touchdowns (1 interception) which is why I think he can have a good game in this one. Wisconsin's pass defense has been average at best as they have allowed opposing QBs to complete 63.6% of their passes for 6.9 yards per pass attempt. That's just way too many leverage yards to allow against a team like Iowa that could virtually breakout of their shell in this game. They have fumbled the ball only one time this season, thrown only 2 interceptions and take only 5.3 penalties per game. Iowa is much better than the odds indicate and they'll bounce back nicely in this game with a big time upset win.
The Wisconsin Badgers have not exactly had it tough yet this season as they have faced Washington State in the opener, UNLV on the road in their second game and I-AA Citadel at home last week. Of course they are 3-0 to start the season (1-1 ATS) but im not sure that I trust this team as much as the line says they should be trusted or as much as a lot of people think they should be trusted. They look very sluggish at times against Citadel last weekend before eventually pulling away and winning that game 45-31 but give up that many points against a I-AA team can surely mean bad things are to come. Iowa is not to be underestimated, specially not after the Badgers walked into their home and eeked out a win in last year's matchup. With the Heartland Trophy once again on the line in this game, I think Wisconsin is going to struggle like they did the last two times Iowa came to town and won 27-21 (2003) and 20-10 (2005). The Badgers are a good team, make no mistake about it, but Kirk Ferentz has won in this place in the past and coming off that loss last week and the loss to Wisconsin last year, I think Ferentz is the last person the Badgers want to see this week. Wisconsin comes into this game averaging 35.7 points per game this season on 432.3 total yards of offense and 6.2 yards per play which is pretty good. However, Iowa's defense has been lights out (despite playing shitty opponents) and they have allowed only 6.0 points per game so far this season on 212.7 yards of total offense and 3.5 yards per play. Wisconsin is going to have success running the football no matter who the opponent is because RB PJ Hill is a monster and he usually gets his 100+ yards per game. The Badgers average 215.0 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry but could be slowed down in this one against an Iowa defense that allows 62.7 rushing yards per game on only 2.1 yards per carry. In the air, QB Tyler Donovan has done a good job completing 62.7% of his passes this season for 623 yards, 8.3 yards per pass attempt and 6 touchdowns (0 interceptions). Although he has looked good, I think the mistakes are coming for Donovan in this one. Iowa's pass defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 59.3% of their passes this season for only 4.9 yards per pass attempt and they already have 4 interceptions in three games. If Donovan is not quick in the pocket, he's gonna be in big trouble against this defense who are very aggressive on the pass rush and who already have 9 sacks on the year. Iowa's defense is the best the Badgers have seen and I think they struggle enough that the game stays close.
Once again we have a complete overreaction by the oddsmakers to the big loss by Iowa last week. I didn't even have to look at the spread for the game and I coulda told you that Iowa State would keep it close and push the Hawkeyes to the brink, if not beat them, like it happens everytime they play in that stadium. Iowa has one of the best offensive lines in the Big 10 (possibly in the Country as well) and that should really help them get things going on the ground in this game. I also like the fact that they return 8 starters on defense which should give them enough of an experience boost to handle tough situations in this game. The Heartland Trophy is on the line in this one and if you check back in years past...apart from last season when Wisconsin was favored anyways, Iowa and Kirk Ferentz have completely dominated this rivalry and I don't think they are about to lose two of these in consecutive seasons. Iowa loves the role of away underdog while Wisconsin has not really played all that well when favored at home by big numbers in conference play the last few years. Iowa for me guys in what should be a thriller.
Trend of the Game: Iowa is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs.
Iowa 28, Wisconsin 27
Minnesota Golden Gophers +14 (10 Units)
The Purdue Boilermakers have completely demolished my ass this season with their high scoring ways but I am stubborn and I refuse to believe that they are one of the top teams in the Big 10. They have scored at least 45 points in each of their first three games and have pretty much gone up against teams who don't know the first thing about playing defense. Well that doesn't sound much different from this game against Minnesota but some things do change coming into this week and I want to talk a bit about those later on. Purdue opened the seasonby blowing Toledo out of the water with a 52-24 win as -6 point favorites. They followed that up with a 52-6 win over I-AA Eastern Illinois and took my money to the bank last week with a 45-22 win over Central Michigan last week as -21.5 point favorites. So they are 2-0 ATS on the season but if you watched their last game against Central Michigan, the Boiler makers made way too many mistakes and if they make those kinds of mistakes in this game, they could be in for some trouble. Purdue is 7-1 versus Minnesota under coach Tiller and 9-1 in Big 10 Conference opening games. The Boilermakers come into this game averaging a whopping 49.7 points per game this season and they have done it on 534.7 total yards of offense and 6.9 yards per play. Minnesota is probably one of the worst teams in the Big 10 this season but they do return 9 starters on defense and have some experience to work with. The Gophers have looked terrible on defense allowing 36.3 points per game so far this season on 557.3 total yards per game and 6.7 yards per play but the only way to go is up and I think they start to play better in this game. On the ground, Purdue has rushed for 215.0 yards per game this season on a whopping 5.9 yards per carry. However, Minnesota's defensive line has done a pretty damn good job allowing only 125.0 rushing yards per game on only 3.7 yards per carry. With a slowed down rushing attack Purdue is not the same and if Minnesota can hold them like they have held opponents that will put a lot of pressure on QB Curtis Painter. The third year Junior has played well this season completing 68.6% of his passes for 952 yards, 8.1 yards per pass attempt and 13 touchdowns (0 interceptions). Painter should pass for a ton of yards again in this one as Minnesota's secondary has allowed 8.6 yards per pass attempt this season and opponents are completing 60.6% of their passes against them. What I do like about Minnesota's defensive chances are that Purdue has lost 6 fumbles this season and the Gophers have 4 interceptions on the year. Turnovers and points are going to be key in this one and I think for once Purdue is somewhat tied down to a lower point total.
The Minnesota Gophers should probably be underdogs of 30 points to any team with half an offense whether they are playing at home or on the road. That's the general perception of how this team has done so far this season and I don't blame anyone for thinking Purdue is going to blow the socks off these guys. However, despite starting the season off 1-2 straight up and 0-3 ATS, the Gophers have done some good things on the offensive side of the ball and as soon as their defense decides it's time to show up for any of their games, they'll probably do some much better things. Minnesota has been to overtime in both their home games so far this year losing the home opener 32-31 against Bowling Green before bouncing back from that and beating Miami Ohio 41-35 to avoid the embarassment of losing to a MAC Conference team at home two weeks in a row. Minnesota then went on the road and lost to Sun Belt opponent Florida Atlantic. Yikes. Everytime these two teams meet it seems like the games stay close so I really like our chances on the Gophers here seeing how they have already been to overtime twice this season. Minnesota comes into this game averaging a very nice 37.0 points per game this season on 497.0 total yards of offense and 6.1 yards per play. That tells me that they have a very good chance of keeping things close in this one because if you have the offense to challenge Purdue, you can do some big things. The Boilermakers have allowed 17.3 points per game this season and allowed only 342.3 total yards of offense on 4.4 yards per play. Minnesota's running attack has been deadly this season averaging 237.0 rushing yards per game on 5.4 yards per carry. However, expect them to slow down a bit in this one as Purdue has allowed 118.7 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry this season. In the air is where I think things can happen for the Gophers. QB Adam Weber has completed 60.0% of his passes this season for 780 passing yards, 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 10 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Purdue's defense has allowed opponents to complete 54.4% of their passes this season for 4.9 yards per pass attempt but I think Weber can really punch some holes in this secondary. On top of all those passing stats, Weber has rushed for 195 yards on 4.6 yards per carry and that is something Purdue has not seen yet this season. The dual threat is going to give them problems and I like Weber to throw a bunch of bombs in this one. Turnovers have been a problem for Minnesota but it has been for Purdue as well so I don't expect that to be the difference in this game. Minnesota plays their best game of the season on both sides of the ball in this one.
TRAP TRAP TRAP! That's all I have to say about this game because you and me both know this line makes absolutely no sense and you have to dig a bit deeper to find out why this is a great matchup for the Gophers. You have to understand that no matter how good or bad these two teams are when they meet and no matter which team is heading in which direction, the games are almost always close. Looking back on past meetings, four of the last six games between these two has been decided by seven or less points which clearly tells me that we are probably heading in that direction once more. Minnesota is the kind of team that is going to play up to their opponents level all season or play down to their opponents level all season. That makes them a very enticing underdog wager and it's going to be like that most of the year. If you watched the Purdue-Central Michigan game last week you will know that had the Chippewas offense showed up in the first half of the game, it would have probably ended a lot closer than it was. Minnesota's offense has proven itself this year and I think they can keep this close and maybe even pull off the shocker.
Trend of the Game: The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Minnesota 38, Purdue 28
WEEKLY RECAP
Miami -2
Oklahoma -23 ***WEEKNIGHT PLAY OF THE WEEK***
North Carolina +13.5
Notre Dame +11.5 ***RIVALRY PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Penn State -3
Kentucky +7
Georgia +3.5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK*
Iowa +8
Minnesota +14
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
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