MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 CFB Record: 15-14 (-8.10 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 13-12 (-7.70 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2 (-0.40 Units)
PS2 Simulations: 7-3 ATS (+26.50 Units)
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. Not the kind of start I was looking for but after observing and watching things play out this past weekend, I think it helped a lot of grow as cappers and Im a big believer in the 'watch and learn' type of theory. The rule changes didn't make much of a difference but new coaches did (Dantonio was impressive) and I would love to turn things around this week with the help of my new little friend. Anybody remember my PS2 simulations a while back? Almost time to bring them back for good. LOL!
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Thursday, September 13
Maryland Terrapins +16 (5 Units)
Alright class...by a show of hands, who thinks West Virginia deserved to cover the spread against Marshall last weekend? If you have your hand up right now...please take that hand and shove it right up your ass. Plain and simple. If you watched the game, the Mountaineers were in great danger of possibly losing the game (for the most part) until they pulled away with a bunch of quick fourth quarter touchdowns. When you're talked as a possible National Title Contender, you're not supposed to struggle against teams like Marshall no matter what kind of atmosphere you're in and no matter what kind of storylines are attached to the game. Several people used the excuse that had they played like they did in the fourth quarter all game, they would have won by 40+ but the bottom line is they didn't so why would you think they do this week against a tougher opponent? It has been quite some time (dont have the numbers) since West Virginia has won in College Park by more than 10-11 points. RB Steve Slaton had originally been given a scholarship to Maryland until the Terps head coach Ralph Friedgen pulled it and he went to West Virginia and has haunted Maryland since with his performances against them. Well that ain't happening this time. The Mountaineers come into this game averaging 55.0 points per game on 526.0 total yards of offense per game and 7.7 yards per play. However, Maryland's defense is somewhat underrated and they have allowed only 12.0 points per game in their first two games on 176.0 total yards of offense and only 4.6 yards per play. On the ground West Virginia has been turning teams inside out rushing for 338.5 yards per game on 7.1 yards per carry. However, even though Maryland has played against two shitty opponents, they have allowed only 47.5 rushing yards per game and only 2.0 yards per carry. We all saw it against Marshall...if you slow down the ground attack of WVU, they have a passing game but the offense just doesn't run the same. QB Pat White has done a decent job completing 63.9% of his passes for 9.5 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. Maryland's pass defense has not looked good in their first two games allowing 8.6 yards per pass attempt and allowing their two weak opponents to complete 83.3% of their passes but both opponents were run-based offenses much like West Virginia so the Terps should be ready for the onslaught. They already have 3 interceptions on the year and seeing how Pat White had 7 interceptions in 2006 and has none this season, he is most certainly due to make a few mistakes in a somewhat hostile environment (the most hostile this year anyways).
The Maryland Terrapins are off to a 2-0 start but 0-1 ATS record which doesn't really tell us much right now. We all know that Maryland allowed a whopping 340 rushing yards to the Mountaineers in last year's 45-24 loss in Morgantown but the defensive line has improved a lot this season and the Terps have already started preparing for this game by using the same gameplan for the first two games as they are going to for this game...STOP THE RUN and force to the air! The Terrapins have 14 starters back this season and are coming off a very good 9-4 season under the Fridge and although QB Sam Hollenbach has to be replaced (that might actually be a positive), I think they can get things done on the defensive side of things. The Terps are coming off wins over Villanova (I-AA) and Florida International and as bad as they looked at times in those games, we all know they had this game on their minds. Ralph Friedgen has been haunted by RB Steve Slaton ever since pulling his scholarship from Maryland a few years but this is the year the Fridge puts his foot down and does something about it. Maryland's offense is probably the biggest concern having to break in the new quarterback but they have averaged 28.5 points per game in their first two games on 343.5 total yards of offense and 4.8 yards per play. West Virginia's defense obviously has a lot more issues than most of us thought as they have allowed 23.5 points per game and allowed 333.5 total yards on 4.9 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB's Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball (both very experienced) should give WVU all they can handle as they rushed for 172.5 yards per game in the first two games on 4.0 yards per carry. Maryland is said to have the best offensive line in the ACC this season and although that may be true, the Mountaineers are probably going to have success getting through to the new QB (they are big and tough). But as long as Maryland can keep things on the ground and keep that clock moving, the Mountaineers offense is off the field and the spread looks better and better. In the air, QB Jordan Steffy looked pretty damn good completing 75.5% of his passes for 309 yards, 6.3 yards per pass attempt but no touchdowns yet in two games. That could all change in this one. West Virginia has shown weaknesses in the secondary and up the middle as they have allowed opponents to complete 62.2% of their passes for 6.9 yards per pass attempt with 2 interceptions. I don't expect Maryland to do much on offense tonight but the more the offense stays on the field and keeps the clock moving, the more the defense is going to frustrate the Mountaineers and hold them to FG's or long drives that waste a lot of time.
It seems like some of you just don't learn your lesson the first time. West Virginia showed last week why they cannot be trusted as a road favorite of double digits and even though they covered the spread, some of their weaknesses were badly exposed. Although West Virginia has won the last three meetings between these two teams, those meetings have been won by an average scoring margin of only 12.0 points and Maryland has another good team this season so expect a much closer game than people think. All the talk continues to surround Steve Slaton and his desire to burry Maryland into the ground for what they did to him. However, I think Slaton's focus this year is more on the National Championship and this team wants to win anyway they can (blowout or not) as long as they can stay in the TOP 5 teams in the Country. Don't understimate home underdogs on Nationally Televised games. We all saw how poorly West Virginia played at times last week and I think Maryland is going to be another tough opponent that doesn't break in the fourth quarter like the Thundering Herd did last week.
PS2 Simulation Result: West Virginia 25, Maryland 10
Friday, September 14
Troy Trojans +10 (5 Units)
What can be said about the Oklahoma State Cowboys? First of all they come into this game off an impressive ass whipping of Florida Atlantic (supposedly the second best team in the Sun Belt Conference) but they are 1-1 ATS on the year and who knows what to expect from them in their second road game of the season. Their first road game was a 35-14 loss to a Georgia team that now looks like it's not all that. As a road favorite under Mike Gundy, the Cowboys are 2-1 ATS over the last two seasons but this could prove to be one of their toughest road games ever as a favorite. The Cowboys are still without last year's top rusher RB Dantrell Savage who hurt himself against Georgia and sat out against Florida Atlantic. Savage ran for 820 yards last season on 6.5 yards per carry and not having him in there is a big loss. However, the Cowboys are in for one hell of a tough time on National TV and playing against an inspired team that has pulled off upsets in the past and that has played their balls off in similar situations in the past. Oklahoma State comes into the game averaging 28.0 points per game but only 289.5 total yards of offense per game on 4.2 yards per play. Troy's defense has had it tough against Arkansas and Florida to open the season and to nobody's surprise they have allowed 52.5 points per game so far on 503.0 total yards of offense and 7.0 yards per play. I actually expect that to improve today. On the ground, Oklahoma State is averaging 151.0 rushing yards per game on only 4.2 yards per carry and without Savage, those numbers won't get any better. Troy has allowed 300+ yards rushing in both games this season but now that they are at home, expect some big time improvements. In the air QB Bobby Reid has completed 58.9% of his passes for 225 yards per game and 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Although they have yet to show it this season, Troy has one of the best DB corps in the Sun Belt and I think tonight they cut down on the 8.4 yards per pass attempt they have allowed so far. Oklahoma State is gonna get some yards in this one but they are on the road, Savage is not there to chew up some yards and eat up some clock which will force the Cowboys to throw more than they want to and Troy's defense is going to show a great improvement on their performance of the first two weeks.
The Troy Trojans have the Nation's 97th toughest schedule but I doubt anyone in Troy would agree with that seeing how they opened the season by playing two road games against Arkansas and Florida of the SEC and now they have to return home and play against one of the top teams in the Big 12. So what gives? Well this is their last big opponent (apart from Georgia in November) and this is the game Troy will probably want to win or really compete in since they are playing in front of a packed Movie Gallery Veterans Stadium. Some of you may think the atmosphere here is going to stink but that couldn't be further from the truth. Troy has had the same coach for 16 seasons now and he has never lost a home opener. EVER! I know it's tough to bet on a team like this that is coming off two blowout losses to big conference opponents but they beat Missouri here in 2004 (another Big 12 member) and Oklahoma State could be next. The Trojans are defending Sun Belt Conference champions (something you can't forget) and they have 13 starters back to help them defend that title. Troy comes into this game averaging 28.5 points per game and they have done that by averaging 359.5 total yards of offense on 4.8 yards per play this season. Oklahoma State's defense has definitely improved the last few seasons and they have allowed only 20.5 points per game so far this season on 289.0 total yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play. However, over the last three seasons, Troy has scored more than 20 points at home in 11 of 15 home games so they should be just fine. On the ground, the Trojans have averaged 120.0 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry and I think this is where they can have success. Oklahoma State has allowed only 85.0 yards rushing per game on only 2.1 yards per carry but they still have one of the weakest defensive lines in football and I think Troy can get their QB's moving and running some trick plays. In the air, the Troy QB's have completed only 45.5% of their passes but QB Omar Haugabook is still the boss around here and he was the Sun Belt offensive player of the year in 2006. He had a 61% completion percentage last season with 21 passing touchdowns and 5 rushing touchdowns. Oklahoma State's two opposing QB's completed 66.1% of their passes against this secondary for 7.3 yards per pass attempt. Haugabook does make quite a few mistakes but he does have a pretty damn good arm and his top two receivers from 2006 are back with a few more options to go along with it. I don't think he has to do too much in this game but with the hype of the National Television audience watching, I think Haugabook is going to make some huge plays downfield. As long as the offensive line can protect him most of the night, the Troy Trojans are about to go to war with Oklahoma State and this game could easily ressemble the Middle Tennessee-Louisville game from last week where the Sun Belt Conference opponent shows their worth on offense and shoots things out with the team from the bigger conference.
Troy head coach Larry Blakeney has been the head coach here for 16 seasons and never has his team lost their home opener. That makes them 16-0 in home openers under Blakeney and 70-11-1 at home under coach Blakeney who also has 92 D-AA wins. Make no mistake about it, the rabid fans of Troy are coming out in piles for the FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS showdown tonight and Oklahoma State might not know what they have coming. The last time Troy played a Thursday or Friday night home game on National TV was back in 2004 against the #19 ranked Missouri and they beat them 24-14 in stunning fashion. I don't expect this game to be low-scoring at all because Oklahoma State does not want to be another Missouri and we have already seen some weaknesses in the Troy defense but make no mistake about it, the Trojans can ball and they have the QB and WR's to score just as many times as Oklahoma State if they have to. I think we are in for a treat of a game where Troy is in it for the most part before Oklahoma State pulls away and wins this game with a late touchdown or some late points. Don't underestimate the Trojans. Their offense is going to look better than Oklahoma State's but in the end the Cowboys will win it on better defense when it matters most.
PS2 Simulation Result: Oklahoma State 38, Troy 31
Saturday, September 15
Pittsburgh Panthers +11 (10 Units)
So right off the top of your heads, Pittsburgh is not worthy of competing against this Michigan State team? Okay that's fine for those taking the Spartans in this one because the last time I checked, Pittsburgh lost to Michigan State at home last year by a blowout score of 38-23 and I think they come into this game with something called 'revenge' on their minds. Make no mistake about it guys...Dave Wannstedt has his best team yet since taking this job some two seasons ago and I think he is taking this team to a Bowl Game. The Panthers were favored in all five of their road games last season but now that the hype is gone and people don't expect anything from these guys anymore, they get to finally compete as underdogs and show what they are all about. The Panthers are off to a 2-0 start (1-0 ATS with a big cover against Eastern Michigan) and now comes their biggest test of the new season. With 14 starters back from a team that went 6-6 (5-6 ATS) last season, the Panthers have set themselves up to make this a game. They come into the game averaging 30.5 points per game on 336.5 total yards of offense and 5.5 yards per play which is good. Michigan State's defense has played a lot better than many people thought they would but they have not really been tested yet and have allowed only 290.5 total yards on 4.0 yards per play. The Panthers have not had immense success rushing the ball this season because RB LaRod Stephens-Howling is out with an injury (might play Saturday) and they average only 3.7 yards per carry. That's not where the points are going to come from for Pitt as Michigan State allows only 36.0 rushing yards per game on 1.3 yards per carry. Despite playing well so far, I think Michigan State has one of the worst Defensive Lines in the BIG 10 and RB LeSean McCoy is a superstar waiting to breakout (he has rushed for 177 yards on 30 carries with 3 touchdowns and 5.9 yards per carry this season). I think there is no doubt that he can rush for 140+ yards in this game if he is the featured back. Pittsburgh's ground attack could be huge in this one. That should open things up for QB Kevan Smith who takes over for the injured Bill Stull. Smith looked pretty damn good against Grambling last week passing for 223 yards on 8.3 yards per pass attempt and a 66.7% completion rate. Michigan State has allowed opponents to complete 58.9% of their passes for 5.7 yards per pass attempt this season and although that's not bad, Smith will probably have a lot of chances to go deep with the running attack having so much success in this one. WR Derek Kinder (Big East 1st team last year) is out for the year but WR Oderick Turner has been a star this season and he'll do it again in this one catching a long bomb for six. Pittsburgh shows they are the real deal in this game.
The Michigan State Spartans looked like the new coming of Ohio State or something when they kicked off the year with a 55-18 win over UAB covering the -23.5 point spread by halftime and rolling from there. However, as many of you have probably already noticed, Michigan State looked sluggish last week against a better opponent in Bowling Green won by 11 as -17.5 points favorites) so you have to believe that will probably take another step back down to earth in this game against a pretty damn good Pittsburgh team. Marl Dantonio came out of the gates with a bang in Week 1 but this is his first true test as head coach of this team, a team a lot of experts said would still finish near the bottom of the BIG 10 and also said it would take a few more years for them to get back to where they were in the old days. You have to keep in mind that as the season progresses, the fact that the Spartans only have 12 returning starters is going to hurt them against teams with more experience. UAB had only 8 returning starters so that would probably explain why they blew them out. Pittsburgh has 14 returning starters this season. Michigan State comes into this game averaging 41.5 points per game on 491.5 total yards of offense and 6.6 yards per play. However, Pitt's defense is a lot tougher than they were last year and they have allowed only 6.5 points per game this season and allowed only 192.0 total yards of offense per game and 3.1 yards per play. On the ground, much like last season's meeting, I think the Spartans will have success running the ball. They average 220.0 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry with RB Javon Ringer leading the way. The Panthers linebacking corps is weak and I think Ringer is going to break a few big ones in this game even though the Panthers allow only 2.4 yards per carry so far this year. QB Brian Hoyer has been great so far with his 451 passing yards on 9.8 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns but two interceptions. That's good but not great because the Panthers have a very aggressive secondary that already has 4 interceptions this season and Hoyer looked a bit shaky with some of his throws last week. Pittsburgh's first two opponents managed to complete only 49.3% of their passes for only 3.8 yards per pass attempt and I think it's going to be a lot tougher for Hoyer to keep up in this game with the big playmakers on Pitt's defense. Expect some fireworks from both sides in this one as it should be high scoring and very close in the end.
Pittsburgh has never won against Michigan State but don't let that take away from the fact that most of those games were decades ago and the fact that Pittsburgh comes into this game with revenge on their minds from that blowout loss to the Spartans last year. Some of you have expressed concerns with the fact that Pittsburgh's RB might not play in this game but this is the COMING OUT PARTY for the running back of the future LeSean McCoy. If you did not know this kid coming into this game you will know him coming out as he should rush for 140+ yards against a weak Michigan State defensive line. You might also have concerns about a redshirt freshman making his first real start for Pitt but this Smith kid was the official backup to Tyler Palko the entire summer in 2006 as Stull was injured. Smith can definitely ball and he's gonna show it today. Hoyer has been good for Michigan State but I don't think he can be as effective against this Pittsburgh defense that returns more starters than last year's defense that allowed only 22.6 points per game. Two good coaches going up against each other but I give the edge to Wanndstedt in his third season as the head coach.
PS2 Simulation Result: Pittsburgh 56, Michigan State 31
Central Michigan Chippewas +21 (5 Units)
The Chippewas from Central Michigan were the cash moneymake of the 2006 season as they went 10-4 straight up and an impressive 10-2-1 ATS over the course of the season. That means that if you bet on them and them only, you made some mad cash and you probably don't have to bet on anything anymore. Well after two games this season Central Michigan is 1-1 both ATS and straight up and even though they were blown out against a very average Kansas Jayhawks team in opening week, I don't know that anyone expected much more from these guys seeing how they have to work in a brand new head coach and seeing how it was his very first game as a head coach at the collegiate level (He was the offensive coordinator at CMU last year) Butch Jones did what he could to survive and it didn't work. The Chippewas recovered nicely last week as they opened things up on offense and blew the snot out of Toledo in a 52-31 romp. So we have seen two sides to this team and it will be interesting to see which one shows up to play against a BIG 10 opponent that has already beat them twice in the past. The Chippewas come into this game averaging 29.5 points per game on 374.5 total yards of offense and 5.5 yards per play but they are up against a Purdue defense that is returning 9 starters and that has allowed only 15.0 points per game in their first two games for 283.5 total yards and 4.0 yards per play. On the ground, Central Michigan is averaging 165.5 rushing yards per game on a whopping 4.9 yards per carry. However, despite the speed and abilities of RB Ontario Sneed, I don't think the Chipps can run against a Purdue Big 10 defense that allows only allows 128.5 rushing yards per game. Well its not that they can't, it's that they won't be able to run when playing from behind. So in the air, QB Dan LeFevour has been decent passing for 409 yards, 3 touchdown, 0 interceptions, 6.2 yards per pass attempt and completing 57.6% of his passes. Purdue has done a great job against the pass holding their opponents to 3.9 yards per pass attempt and 49.4% completion rate. However they're defense is not nearly as good as we have seen and a team like Central Michigan should have no problems exposing them for what they are. LeFevour was the MAC Rookie of the Year in 2006 with his 26 touchdown passes and only 10 interceptions. Purdue's secondary is not very good with picks so don't expect LeFevour to make many costly mistakes in this game. Sneed could have a big game but I think it will come on short passes from LeFevour and screen passes rather than a direct attack on the bigger Purdue defensive line. The Chippewas scored 29.7 points per game last season, im sure they can keep those scoring ways going against Purdue and keep this closer than people think.
The Purdue Boilermakers cost me some cash the two or three times I bet on them last year so I have no reason to trust them again this season, specially not against the best ATS team of 2006 in college football. The Boilermakers have a much better team than the 8-6 squad (6-6 ATS) they had last year as they return 18 starters (nine of each side of the ball) and Joe Tiller could have his best team ever in front of him. Now let's see what he can do with these guys. The Boilermakers blew out Toledo in their season opener easily covering the -6 point spread and then went on to demolish I-AA opponent Eastern Illinois by a score of 52-6 at home last week. However, do some of you have a hard time swallowing the fact that they went from a -6 road favorite against one MAC Conference opponent to being favored by 20+ points at home against another MAC Conference opponent...one that just beat that same Toledo team by almost the exact same score? I do. Purdue has always had success against teams from the MAC but their two blowout wins over Central Michigan were with Drew Brees as the quarterback and im pretty sure that QB Curtis Painter is nothing like Drew Brees and the defense is not what it used to be back in that day. The Boilermakers come into this game averaging 52.0 points per game on 513.5 total yards of offense per game and 6.6 yards per play. Central Michigan should have the same solid defense as the last two seasons. However they have yet to show it allowing 508.0 total yards per game, 41.5 points per game and 6.7 yards per play. On the ground, Purdue is averaging 210.5 rushing yards per game on 5.8 yards per carry but something tells me they are going to have a tougher time running the ball today against the best group of linebackers in the MAC Conference. Purdue might get some short yardage but they won't get into the secondary. Central Michigan has allowed only 4.4 yards per carry this season which should also improve as the season moves long. QB Curtis Painter is no doubt going to have a monster day in this one as he has completed 65.8% of his passes for 599 yards, 7.6 yards per pass attempt and a whopping 10 touchdown passes. Central Michigan has been horrendous against the passing attacks so far this season allowing 65.8% of passes to be completed against for 9.2 yards per pass attempt and no interceptions. The Chippewas, as well as they have played on defense the last few years, cannot stop the Purdue attack but their offense can certainly match what Purdue is doing in this game to a certain degree.
Everything points against Central Michigan having any chance of winning this football game. They are 0-13 versus current BIG 10 schools and they are only 6-25 on natural grass since 1995. However, nobody is talking about winning this game here...we are talking about covering a spread that seems way too high for a team like Purdue to cover and we are talking about Central Michigan who has been one of the best ATS teams over the last two seasons. If you're betting on Purdue in this game, can you please tell me how they went from a -6 point road favorite against a MAC Opponent (Toledo) a few weeks ago to a -21 points home favorite against another MAC Opponent (Central Michigan) who just beat that other MAC Conference team by the same score as Purdue? It doesn't make any sense to back Purdue in this game. The key here is that we all know Purdue is going to put some points on the board but we are also banking on Central Michigan doing some scoring of their own against a defense that allowed too many points last year and that is still allowing too many points against teams like Toledo. Chippewas to the bank!
PS2 Simulation Result: Purdue 31, Central Michigan 21
Tennessee Volunteers +7 (10 Units)
For the second time in three weeks, the Tennessee Volunteers have to go on the road and they have to play against a very tough TOP 25 ranked opponent. As a matter of fact the Vols have the #18 ranked toughest schedule in the Country and going to Gainesville to play in the swamp against the Gators is as tough as it gets in College football. Phillip Fulmer is most definitely not worried about his team having to play this game because this time they don't change significant time zones and this time they play in a familiar atmosphere with revenge on their minds and not the other way around like the Cal game. In last year's meeting in Knoxville, Florida stole a win away from the Vols with a 21-20 performance in Neyland Stadium and I am pretty sure that Tennessee still has that loss on their minds because it was the one loss that really screwed them in the end. So after losing 45-31 to California the first week, the Vols bounced back and went back to basics in their second game as they pulled off a nice 39-19 win over Southern Mississippi as -11.5 point favorites. The Vols also come into this game averaging 35.0 points per game this season on 425.5 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play. They are up against a Gators defense that has yet to be tested and that returns only 2 starters this season. Florida has allowed 17.0 points per game this season on 286.0 total yards of offense and only 4.5 yards per play. Tennessee is averaging 152.0 rushing yards per game this season on 4.6 yards per carry which is good news because they will need to put pressure on this untested Florida defense and establish guys like RB Arian Foster and RB Lennon Creer who are both having pretty damn good seasons so far. QB Erik Ainge has done a great job so far completing 66.3% of his passes for 547 total passing yards, 6.6 yards per pass attempt and 5 touchdown passes with no interceptions. He has been sacked only twice and is going up against a Florida defense that has allowed weak opponents to complete 60.8% of their passes this season for 6.0 yards per pass attempt. With so much youth on this Florida team, expect Ainge to pass for 200+ yards in this game with some big plays to some of his young receivers. There is no reason for Tennessee to struggle putting points on the board in this place even though they have scored a combined 31 points the last two times here.
The Florida Gators, or sorry...the defending champion Florida Gators are off to a pretty damn good start this season with two blowout wins over two nobody opponents but now that the first test of the year has arrived, how will some of these guys react? They have only 8 returning starters with only two of them being on defense which is going to be quite the big problem against a very potent Tennessee offense. Im pretty sure the Vols are nothing like the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers or the Troy Trojans so the Ben Hill Griffin Stadium faifthful better be ready for a shocker. Historically in this matchup or this series, the home team has not done well and not played the way they have the rest of the season. The home team is only 2-5 in this series and after holding Tennessee to only -11 rushing yards their meeting last year in Knoxville, Urban Meyer has to be very careful in this spot because we all know how pissed coach Fullmer was last year and he comes into this game with a big head of steam. The swamp is always a tough place to play but the SEC produces some of the closest and best games you will ever see...this being another one of them. The Gators come into this game averaging 54.0 whopping points per game this season and they have done it on 500.5 total yards of offense and an impressive 8.0 yards per play. Tennessee is another team that struggled with losses on defense and they have allowed 32.0 points per game so far this season on 412.5 total yards of offense and 6.0 yards per play which can't be good for them against Florida. The Gators love to run the ball and they average 219.5 rushing yards per game on 5.6 yards per carry this season which is going to be a problem for Tennessee who have allowed 160.0 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry. That's fine because we know Florida is going to put some points on the board and we know Tim Tebow is going to have a huge day but I dont think it will be on the ground. Speaking of Tebow and the passing game, he has completed 73.8% of his passes for 536 yards, 12.8 yards per pass attempt and 6 touchdown passes with no interceptions. Tennessee's strength on defense is definitely their LB corps and their D-Line but they have to show it and I think they can shut down Florida's rushing attack. The Vols have allowed their opponents to complete 58.0% of their passes this season for 7.3 yards per pass attempt and I think the Gators can demolish this weak Tennessee secondary. The only problem is that they might be too stubborn and run the ball a few too many times which could cost them some time and some needed yardage to cover this kind of spread. Regardless, Florida has a lot of injuries right now and this should be close.
A spot in the SEC Title game is on the line in this one as the loser of this game has not made it to the SEC Title game since 1997 (thanks Phil Steele). How oddsmakers came up with this kind of line is beyond me seeing how not only is this an SEC rivalry game but this is a game with a lot on the line and six of the last 9 meetings between these two teams have been determined by 4 points or less. That virtually makes this a field goal game at best, kinda like the South Carolina-Georgia game last weekend, and I don't understand why anyone in their right mind would take so many points for the defending champions. Phillip Fulmer was pissed off after last year's loss and seeing how the home team has not had much success in this series in the past, I think Fulmer and his guys are going to be ready to push Florida right down to the last possession of this game. The only problem for Tennessee is that they don't have it in them to make that final stop and beat the Gators in the swamp. Im taking the points and running away with them.
PS2 Simulation Result: Florida 38, Tennessee 35
Michigan Wolverines -7.5 (5 Units)
I have to first and foremost admit that I was one of the idiot's who took Notre Dame last week as +17.5 point underdogs against Penn State but when I look at the big picture of things, I think the game and missed cover were both a lot closer than the final score indicates. It took a very late score by the Nittany Lions to cover the spread by 3.5 points and had it not been for so many miscues on both sides of the ball, the Irish woulda made that a ball game. Ah well...that was then and this is now. In their two games this season the Irish have looked like a first year team moving into the I-A division for the first time and although their list of opponents is tough and they have all the odds stacked against them, performing the way they performed is both embarassing to the program and to the fans who have supported them for so long. The Irish are now 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS after the losses to Georgia Tech and Penn State and they now have to face a pissed off Michigan team who is also 0-2 on the year. With the ATS loss against Penn State, Charlie Weiss is now 0-2 ATS as a road underdog the last two seasons and something tells me the trend continues today. The Irish come into the game averaging a pathetic 6.5 points per game this season and they have done it on an even more pathetic 135.0 total yards of offense in both games and 2.2 yards per play. Is that possible in college football? Michigan has allowed 36.5 points per game this season on 505.5 total yards of offense and 7.0 yards per play but their two opponents (App State and Oregon) were dual threat offenses that could run and pass just as well as the other. Notre Dame is far from that as they average only -4.5 yards per game this season (OUCH) and -0.1 yards per carry. In the air, QB Jimmy Clausen looked better last week but he is still completing only 55.3% of his passes for 4.7 yards per pass attempt and no touchdown passes on the season. Michigan's young secondary has been torched left and right this season allowing opponents to complete 69.4% of their passes for 10.6 yards per pass attempt. That means that Claussen should have his best game yet in college football but in the end it won't be enough to keep up with the Wolverines offense which should also have it's best output of the season. Notre Dame is going to improve in this game but this is the wrong time and the wrong place to be playing Michigan...much more so than when Oregon played them last week.
The Michigan Wolverines are no longer under pressure to do anything. They have lost five games in a row dating back to last season and now that they have lost the first two games of this season, losing another one on Saturday would not mean much. That's why I think they come out a lot looser in this one. After losing games against Appalachian State and against Oregon, the Wolverines find themselves in uncharted waters and that could also be a good thing for this team. Lloyd Carr has not been fired as of yet and this is a good chance for him to showcase his team on what is probably a soft line because Notre Dame is just as bad. You also have to consider that before facing Oregon and Appalachian State, Michigan was 19-1 at home versus non Big 10 opponents going all the way back to 1999. So as probably as it may seem to some, I don't see them losing three times against non-conference opponents in the same season. As much as the public has given up on this team, they are still loaded with talent and ready to make some noise. The Wolverines come into the game with a lot more efficiency on offense than Notre Dame as they average 19.5 points per game this season and have done that on 422.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play. Notre Dame's defense has been downright awful allowing 32.0 points per game on 347.0 total yards and 5.1 yards per play. On the ground is where I think Michigan clobbers the Irish. RB Mike Hart has guaranteed a win for the Wolverines and Heart is not one to talk shit if he ain't gonna back it up. Seeing how the Fighting Irish have allowed a whopping 212.0 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry this season, I think it would be safe to assume that Mike Hart is going to rush for 150+ yards and a few touchdowns in this game against a weak defensive line. That should help QB Ryan Mallett (who is replacing the injured Chad Henne) get his groove on. Mallett has completed only 6 of 17 passes this season for 49 yards, 1 interception and 2.9 yards per pass attempt but that was as the backup. Now that he is starting and facing a Notre Dame defense that allows miminal yardage in the air (only 5.9 yards per pass attempt allowed by the Irish so far), I think Mallett is going to have a lot more opportunities once Heart breaks a few big runs and the Irish have to start respecting the run by moving guys up. Mallett is a #1 prospect out of high school which means he definitely has enough talent to get things done as long as he keeps his cool. Michigan will have one of their best offensive games all season and it will be all thanks for Mike Heart who is going to unload on this Irish defense.
This is the first time in 25 years that neither team is ranked heading into this matchup and the first time ever that these two teams meet without having won a game. That's some shocking stuff right there and now that we have two troubled teams facing off against each other, this really comes down to who has the bigger leaders and the biggest HEART because this game is up for grabs. The difference between Notre Dame and Michigan is that the Irish don't have the talent or the personnel to turn things around right away this season. Michigan on the other hand is a lot better than they have played and now that nobody really cares about them losing once or losing twice, the pressure won't be as big to win this game so I think they come out with a bang. Had this Notre Dame team been anything like Appalachian State or Oregon, I would give them a big time chance to win in the big house but since they are horrendously worse than both those teams, I give them a zero percent chance of winning this game in this house.
PS2 Simulation Result: Michigan 42, Notre Dame 14
Ohio State Buckeyes -4 (5 Units)
This is the week the BIG 10 answers the bell and it all starts with the top two teams in the Conferece, Michigan and Ohio State. The BIG 10 has been subject to a lot of ridicule for some performances this season but it's only two weeks into the season and both these teams have a lot of time to prove nay-sayers wrong. It all starts today. Sure the Buckeyes lost guys like QB Troy Smith and RB Antonio Pittman but when you have such a powerful and reputable program like they do, replacing those guys is usualy not all that hard. Ohio State is 6-2 ATS as an away favorite the last two seasons and Jim Tressel loves proving people wrong when this team goes on the road. So they are 7-2 ATS the last two seasons when favored on the road and seeing how a lot of people think Washington has a good chance of winning here, I really think the Buckeyes put on a show and prove everyone wrong. I know Ohio State lost here in 1986 and in 1994 but that was way too long ago to take into consideration for this game. Ohio State is 13-3 in their last 16 non-conference away games so they don't be shocked when they win. They come into this game averaging 29.0 points per game on 397.5 total yards of offense and 5.5 yards per play which is not bad at all considering the changes they had to make. Washington is allowing only 11.0 points per game on 296.5 total yards and 4.3 yards per play so they have been impressive. On the ground, RB Chris Wells picked up where he left off in 2006 as he has led the team to 179.0 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry. Washington's defensive line has been great allowing only 54.5 rushing yards per game and 1.8 yards per carry but Chris Wells is by far the best running back they have faced and Ohio State's offensive line is about 20 times better than Boise State's and Syracuse's. Wells should break some big ones in this game and he should rush for 100+ yards. In the air, QB Todd Boeckman is very quick on his feet and has completed 67.4% of his passes for 356 yards, 4 touchdowns, 2 interceptions and 7.7 yards per pass attempt. Washington's pass defense is their weakness as they have allowed 62.0% of passes to be completed against them this season for 6.1 yards per pass attempt. They do have 7 sacks but Ohio State's offensive line is as solid as it gets. With Chris Wells breaking down the Huskies defense, Boeckman should be able to put a lot more points on the board than he did in his first two games. Ohio State should have no problems winning this game comfortably. Ohio State has fumbled and lost the ball four times this season so if they can fix that problem, winning will come easy.
The Washington Huskies have caught the wide eyed attention of every college football fan/bettor this season and they have done it because of their new superstar freshman QB Jake Locker. That and the fact that the Huskies are 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS having won a road game (yeah believe it guys...they really did) and they somehow managed to beat both Syracuse on the road and the ranked Boise State Broncos at home. In the past, Washington has been very good at home against opponents from other conferences (14-3 versus non-conference home opponents) but we are talking about the best of the BIG 10 here and not some Moutain West opponents like they have faced in the past. Washington is only 3-5 ATS as a home underdog under Tyrone Willingham and that tells me that when the rough gets going, Willingham doesn't have what it takes to get his guys prepared for games like this. Sure the two big wins have been nice and all but Willingham is still only 5-8 straight up at home in his career as Huskies head coach and the Buckeyes are one of his toughest opponents yet in Husky Stadium (despite the 70 000+ that will show up, its not too hard to win here for visiting teams). The Huskies come into the game averaging 33.0 points per game but have dont it on only 396.5 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play. Ohio State has been rock solid on defense allowing only 137.5 total yards per game, 4.0 points per game and a miniscule 2.6 yards per play to their two opponents. On the ground, the Huskies led by Locker have averaged 220.5 rushing yards per game on 5.6 yards per carry but running the ball against Ohio State is going to be a disaster. The Buckeyes have allowed only 59.0 rushing yards per game on 2.2 yards per carry this season and have one of the top 20 d-lines in this Country. That will force Locker to throw a lot more than he has in the past even though he has done well completing 61.4% of his passes for 335 yards and 7.6 yards per pass attempt. Ohio State has allowed opponents to complete only 54.9% of their passes this season for only 3.1 yards per pass attempt which could cause problems for the youngster. The Buckeyes have 5 sacks in two games and the pressure on him will be more than he has seen this season. I think for the first time in his young career Locker is going to look like just that...a young quarterback trying to find his way against a very good team like the Buckeyes. There is no way you can go against Ohio State in this game, they are just too good all around to lose and not cover.
The public is likely to be split on this one a) because of the way Ohio State has played and because they have to record a convincing win and b) because too many people think Washington QB Jake Locker is the second coming of God. Make no mistake about it...Locker is very good and Ohio State has sucked ass but the coaching matchup clearly favors the Buckeyes in this one and this is the kind of game they have been waiting for to prove their worth. Oddsmakers have really lowered the odds on what they would have been had Locker not been playing so well and it will be very interesting to see how he fares against a top notch defense like Ohio State's. My guess is that he is going to struggle. Ohio State beat Texas, Iowa, Michigan State, Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, Michigan and Minnesota in their last 8 road games making them 8-0 on the road since their loss to Penn State back in 2005. Washington is definitely not good enough all around to win this game nor will they be able to keep this thing under a touchdown like many people think they will. Should be a great game but the Buckeyes are the play.
PS2 Simulation Result: Ohio State 31, Washington 21
Texas Longhorns -18.5 (10 Units)
HOOK THOSE DAMN HORNS ALREADY! The Texas Longhorns come into this game having survived the first two games of their 38th toughest schedule in the Nation but that doesn't mean they are out of the woods year. The Longhorns were favored in all their road games in 2006 but somehow only went 1-3 ATS in those games and that's usually not good news for people who want to bet on them in the same situation this year...right? WRONG! As much as a bunch of people are going to be on this game as well, you just can't pass up the chance to take them at three touchdowns or less because the Horns always run up the score on opponents and the Horns still have a pretty damn good offense. There is no chance of Texas losing this game but now the question remains...can they cover the points? We are now one year later in the Colt McCoy saga so I think he has done some growing up and we are going to see him lead this team to a lot more ATS wins on the road this time around. The win over TCU was huge last week because a lot of experts said TCU could easily win that game and takeout the Horns but that never came close to happening. Texas comes into this game averaging 27.5 points per game and they did it by averaging 377.5 yards of offense per game on 5.2 yards per play. That's not all that great. UFC did a good job in their one and only game allowing 354.0 yards of offense on 5.1 yards per play but that was NC State and this is Texas. On the ground, the Horns have rushed for 146.5 yards per game this season on 4.0 yards per carry which is going to give the UCF defensive line some nightmares. I say that because although they allowed only 85.0 rushing yards to NC State, they did not see a back like Jamaal Charles who can drop 150+ on you at anytime. Charles should have a huge game in this one. In the air, Colt McCoy has completed 66.2% of his passes for 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. However he should have his best game yet against a UCF secondary that NC State to complete 63.2% of their passes last week for 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Sure they had two interceptions and McCoy has already thrown four but with the running game taking flight in this one, NC State is going to have to stack the box which should leave McCoy wide open to make some big time plays downfield. Like I said before, don't expect Texas to letup once they have a big lead...it would make no sense seeing how they still have a lot to work on offensively. Texas won't score a ton of points, but they'll do enough to win and cover.
The Central Florida Knights are about to break in their brand new stadium against one of the top teams in the Country the last five years and you can bet your bottom dollar this house is going to be rocking with 45 000 solid in what is a huge step for the future of this program. However, it doesn't mean that Central Florida is going to play any better at home than they did last season when they went 1-3 ATS as a home underdog and 2-4 ATS altogether in front of their hometown fans. UCF has been impressive in past home openers however as they have won 6 of their last 7 but they lost to Florida by 42 points last season and I don't see any reason why Texas wouldn't pull off the same kind of job in this game. UCF was damn impressive when they beat NC State 25-23 in their season opener two weeks ago and they do have one of the best defensive units in the Conference USA...which means this game will probably be closer than we think. However, NC State proved to be somewhat of a fraud team when they get lit up by Boston College last week and now the jury is still out on UCF's performance. The Knights come into this game off a 25 points performance against NC State where they had only 290.0 total yards of offense and 4.3 yards per play. Texas didn't look too sharp defensively in their opening games as they allowed 13.0 points per game on 324.0 total yards and 4.6 yards per play. However, the UCF offense is the weakest they have faced to date and a shutout is not out of the question. On the ground UCF has a superstar RB Kevin Smith who looks to be well on his way to another 1100+ yard season as the Knights rushed for 197.0 yards against NC State on 4.6 yards per carry. Only problem here is that Texas has allowed only 84.0 rushing yards on 2.5 yards per carry against two good running teams and I don't see Smith having a good game at all. In the air, QB Kyle Israel is the starter this season and he has completed only 50.0% of his passes for only 93 yards and 3.9 yards per pass attempt. Not gonna work against Texas. The Horns weakness is in the secondary and against the pass as they have allowed a 63.5% pass completion rate and 6.5 yards per pass attempt this season but UCF doesn't have enough weapons to exploit those weaknesses and I don't see Israel cracking the 100 yard passing mark for the second game in a row. The Horns love to force turnovers and UCF really needs to be careful what they do with the ball and where they give it back to Texas. The Knights have a good team but not good enough to compete in this game against a team hungry for another blowout win.
The books have lost their minds a little here and the public is reacting by pounding away on the Longhorns. I know the win by UCF was nice alst week or two weeks ago against NC State (on the road) but NC State looked like complete shit the next week against Boston College. Texas is capable of putting 50+ points on the board on any given week and although they most certainly won't do that in this game, I think when the fourth quarter comes rolling around this team is going to continue to pound away on UCF and continue to do what they can to earn some rankings points with other teams faltering along the way. UCF has a very good defensive unit and that should keep this thing interesting for a while. However, I just don't know how they are going to score any points in this game because they have very little experience on offense and they are playing against a Texas defense that has held opponents to 10 points or less seven times in the last two seasons. If they can score more than 10 points in this game I think they cover, but since I don't see them doing that, I think Texas rolls them up and throws them out...not in a blowout though.
PS2 Simulation Result: Texas 24, UCF 0
Alabama Crimson Tide -3 (5 Units)
I don't know what it is but there is something I don't like about this Arkansas Razorbacks team and I don't want to bet on them at all this season. They are coming off a 4-8 ATS (10-4 straight up) season and a lot of people have them pegged to do just as well this season but I don't think it's gonna happen and I don't see them winning this game. The Razorbacks opened their season two weeks ago with a 46-26 demolishing of Troy at home but they failed to cover the -22 points as the home favorite and are already showing signs of having problems covering spreads this season. Houston Nutt has been here a long time and the Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS the last two seasons as road underdogs but that doesn't mean that this year's team (defense is more of a concern than offense) can play like this team did last season. In their home meeting against Alabama last year, it took two overtime for Nutt and his guys to finally come away with the win so the fact that the Tide come into this game with some revenge on their minds has to be a bit concerning. The Razorbacks come into this game off a nice 46 point performance against Troy that saw them get 480.0 total yards of offense on 6.9 yards per play. However, they are up against a very tough Alabama defense that has now allowed only 8.0 points per game this season in their two games on 236.0 total yards of offense and only 3.6 yards per play. Arkansas ran one hell of a ground assault against Troy, compiling 340.0 rushing yards on 6.8 yards per carry in that game. RB Darren McFadden is a legit Heisman Trophy candidate but I think Alabama is going to contain him in this game even though they lost a lot of senior players from last year. The Tide have allowed only 63.0 rushing yards per game on 2.0 yards per carry and McFadden could have some problems. Arkansas' offensive line is one of the weakest in the SEC so expect Kevin Steele's defense to find a way to make some stops. That will force QB Casey Dick to throw the ball. Prior to the Troy game, Dick had completed only 51.0% of his passes in two years at Arkansas with 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Nothing special. Dick was again just average in the opener going 10 for 18 with 91 passing yards and no touchdowns. Alabama's secondary is still pretty damn good and they have held their two opponents to a 47.1% completion rate in the first two games on 5.1 yards per pass attempt. Casey Dick made a lot of mistakes under pressure last season and if Alabama comes after him or really shuts down McFadden like I think they will, Dick is in for one hell of a long night. The offensive line is too weak to protect him and I think the Crimson Tide are going to have tons of success if they come at him hard and force him into mistakes. Dick will however have his fair share of chances to make plays because Alabama main focus in this one will be shutting down the running threat of McFadden. If you do that against Arkansas, you win a lot of ball games.
The Alabama Crimson Tide are wearing brand new SEC life jackets this season with the arrival of superstar coach Nick Saban via the Miami Dolphins and LSU Tigers in recent year. Not only does Saban brings much needed presence of POWER to this program but Saban also brings this program some brains that Mike Shula just didn't have. Alabama is already off two a 2-0 start with a 1-0 ATS record and there is no doubt in my mind that Saban is going to be ready for Houston Nutt and his guys. Under the coaching of Mike Shula, Alabama went a pathetic 2-10 ATS the last two season as a home favorite. Believe me when I say that that is not happening this season, not with Saban at the helms. What I find encouraging about last year's 24-23 double overtime loss to Arkanas is that 14 starters return for Alabama so the revenge factor is going to be huge and now the Tide is at home in Bryant-Denny Stadium so that should also have a pretty big impact on the outcome of the game. A lot of guys played well in Arkansas last year but ended up on the losing side of things anyways. Alabama comes into this game averaging a whopping 38.0 points per game so far this season and they have done it on 474.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.2 yards per play. Arkansas' defense looked shaddy at best in their opener against Troy as they allowed 351.0 total yards of offense for 4.7 yards per play. On the ground, RB's Terry Grant and Glen Coffee have been tearing it up as they have led the team to 267.0 rushing yards per game on 5.8 yards per carry this season but Arkansas' defensive line is a lot better than the D-Line that allowed Troy to run all over them for 163.0 rushing yards and 5.6 yards per carry in thier opening game. Saban is smart...he knows that Arkansas will expect the run so he will cue QB John Parker Wilson, who was 16 for 20 with 3 touchdowns last year in the loss to Arkansas. Parker Wilson has been so-so in his first two games completing 58.5% of his passes for 341.0 passing yards, 6.4 yards per pass attempt with no touchdowns and one interception. That should all change in this one. I think Parker can exploit this Arkansas defense, despite them shutting down Troy and allowing only 4.1 yards per pass attempt. Alabama's running attack is too good for Arkanas to ignore and once they figure that the Tide have not one, but two guys who can really make some noise on the ground, they are going to leave things open for Parker Wilson and the offense to put the game away with long time killing drives. Alabama scored only 22.9 points per game with 9 starters back on offense last season but those were nine starters under Shula. This year the nine starters are under Saban and I think Alabama can make Arkansas look silly in this one.
I think the fact that Alabama is two games deep in their season under Nick Saban is a big time deal when you consider that Arkansas has only played the one game so far and they return only 12 starters. So basically guys are spending time on the practice field and missing out on crucial experience and Alabama is going to come into this game one step ahead of the Razorbacks. Since 1999, these two teams have met in this stadium four times and in three of those four times, Alabama won by 7 or more points. They beat Arkansas 35-28 in 1999, they beat them 31-10 in 2001, they lost 34-31 in double overtime to them in 2003 and they beat them 24-13 in 2005. With neither team bringing back much experience on defense, you have to go with the team you think can do more damage on offense and that team will always be a Saban team over a Houston Nutt team. The Crimson Tide allowed 172 rushing yards against Arkansas last year on the road but this year they can concentrate on shutting McFadden down and forcing the Razorbacks to beat them through the air...something they can't do. I am calling for John Parker Wilson to throw for at least 275+ yards in this one.
PS2 Simulation Result: Alabama 34, Arkansas 7
Boston College Eagles +6.5 (5 Units)
The Boston College Eagles have now made me some cash in the first two weeks of this season and although it would be tough to believe they can continue to cover games the way they have, I don't think I can go against this very underrated team right now. I saw a bunch of experts picking this team to finish almost dead last in the ACC Atlantic this season and boy have they come out of the gates proved some people wrong by going 2-0 ATS and beating both the defending champs Wake Forest 38-28 but by also taking care of their old coach Tom O'Brien and his new bed buddies at NC State by a score of 37-17. Impressive? Yes...but before we get too excited about Jeff Jagodzinski unbeaten record as a head coach, look no further than this big game against division rival Georgia Tech. What I like the most about Boston College is that they are 19-8 straight up in their last 27 games away from home and they are 6-1 ATS the last three seasons as road underdogs (albeit under Tom O'Brien). The Eagles have won their last four road openers but have not had much success in the past against Georgia Tech but they have not played against each other in almost 10 years. Boston College comes into this game averaging 37.5 points per game and they have done that by averaging 416.0 total yards of offense on 5.5 yards per play and great time of possession. Georgia Tech's defense is going to be their toughest test yet as they have allowed only 8.5 points per game in their first two games on an impressive 181.0 total yards of offense and 3.0 yards per play. However, that was against I-AA Samford and I-AA...oops I-A Notre Dame. Boston College has had success running the ball this season averaging 142.5 rushing yards per game with 4.4 yards per carry but they can forget about running much today. Georgia Tech has allowed only 38.5 rushing yards per game on 1.1 yards per carry and have one of the top defensive lines in the ACC Conference. In the air, QB Matt Ryan has not been all that impressive with his 54.7% pass completion rate, 548 yards passing, 6 touchdowns, 3 interceptions and 6.4 yards per pass attempt. However, he should have no problems making a few big plays against a secondary that allowed their two weak opponents to complete 58.8% of their passes this season for 5.6 yards per pass attempt and no interceptions. Ryan is a lot better than what he has shown this season and I think he can pass for another 250-300 yards in this game. Well he's gonna have to because Georgia Tech is too good against the run and that's not a big problem because the Eagles love to throw the ball. As long as he stay away from too many mistakes, Boston College should keep this one close.
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets were impressive in their debut against Notre Dame (doesn't look like much now does it?) and they were equally impressive in their 69-14 blowout win over I-AA Samford last week in Atlanta. So now the real fun begins as they open ACC divisional play and I honestly think they might be a few steps behind Boston College who have already played two in-conference games. This is the most experienced team Chan Gailey has had since 2001 and I don't doubt they will finish with a winning record as they always have under Gailey but this is not an easy game. The Yellow Jackets are are only 9-10 ATS as home favorites under Chan Gailey which is not very impressive and not very encouraging when you're looking for that big blowout win. This is the first time these two schools meet as ACC Conference opponents and I have to hand it to Georgia Tech, they have done a good job in home games against ACC Conference opponents. While Boston College only has Army to worry about next week, Georgia Tech jumps right back into ACC Conference play in Virginia and then back home for Clemson and then on the road to Maryland and Miami. So the look ahead is possible but not a big deal. The Yellow Jackets come into this game averaging a whopping 51.0 points per game this season and they have done that on 441.5 total yards of offense and 6.6 yards per play which is impressive but the level of competiton has not been prime. Boston College has allowed only 22.5 points per game this season on 386.5 total yards of offense and 4.8 yards per play which is really good considering the opponents they have faced. On the ground, RB Tashard Choice has led this team to 323.5 rushing yards per game on 6.7 yards per carry for the team but there is no way the Jackets can run the ball that much against a very solid Boston College linebacking crew that has held opponents to 28.5 rushing yards per game and 1.2 yards per carry. I think Choice can run for 100+ yards in this game but they will be 'grind-it-out' kinda yards that won't come easy or by the home run category. In the air, QB Taylor Bennett has been pretty good completing 59.4% of his passes for 206 yards, 6.4 yards per pass attempt but no touchdowns. With Boston College having better run defense than the teams they have seen, expect Georgia Tech to throw a lot more in this one against a Boston College defense that has allowed opponents to complete 64.9% of their passes for 6.3 yards per pass attempt. However, beware of this new Georgia Tech gameplan of passing. Bennett has not been tested in the passing game and Boston College already has 9 interceptions in only two games. Unless Choice can really rush for 150 yards and keep the ball on the ground, which I doubt, Boston College should be able to make some big plays and get the ball back in the hands of their offense.
Don't forget guys that Boston College is 6-1 ATS as a road underdog the last three seasons and that they are 2-0 ATS to kickoff the year. The key for them in this game is that they come in with already two ACC Conference games under their belts while Georgia Tech has not played against an ACC Conference opponent yet this season. I also like the fact that the Jackets have not tested their passing attack as of yet and even though Taylor Bennett can easily pass for 250+ yards (since running game won't be as effective) in this game, Boston College has proven to be of 'shark' status on defense this season with their 9 interceptions and we will almost surely see Bennett make a few mistakes here and there when finally tested to throw the ball. With the loss of guys like WR Calvin Johnson and Chris Dunlap, the options are very limited for Bennett and I think he has a shaddy game. Boston College has always been good away from home and they have made me cash both weeks this season so why not press my luck one more time with them. Should be a great game decided by a late field goal.
PS2 Simulation Result: Georgia Tech 20, Boston College 17
Southern California Trojans -9.5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
I'm a big time fan of the USC Trojans program, of Pete Carroll and of several players that have played at this University. However, this is by no means a home play for me because I rarely take this team when they are favored by more than a few points (which is always) because it's just not worth it. Well coming off a mediocre performance two weeks ago against Idaho in a 38-10 win but ATS loss as -49 point favorites, I think Pete Carroll has spent the last two weeks figuring out what this team can do to keep all their number one ranking points. LSU is quickly moving in on the Trojans and quickly trying to takeover the number one spot the minute the Trojans make a mistake. So don't think for one second that Pete Carroll is taking it easy on anyone in this game. You guys surely remember what happened last year when USC spanked Nebraska 28-10 at home as -17 point favorites. I also recall the last few times USC went on the road out of conference. Yup...a 50-14 win over Arkansas in 2006, a 34-31 win over Notre Dame in 2005, a 63-17 win over Hawaii in 2005, a 24-13 win over Virginia Tech in 2004, a 42-10 win over BYU in 2004, a 23-0 win over Auburn in 2003, a 45-14 win over Notre Dame in 2003, a 40-3 win over Colorado in 2002 and the one loss to Kansas State. So in those eight non-conference away wins since 2001, USC is 6-2 ATS. The Trojans come into this game off the 38 point performance against Idaho where they had 420.0 total yards of offense on 5.5 yards per play. Nebraska has done a good job defensively so far allowing 13.5 points per game on only 280.0 total yards of offense and 4.4 yards per play. Well that was against Nevada and Wake Forest (with backup QB) and this is USC...the number one team in the Nation. On the ground, USC has a plethora of RB's who can hit the home run ball as they combined for 214.0 rushing yards in their first game on 5.0 yards per carry. Nebraska has one othe weakest defensive lines in the Big 12 and USC is gonna trash them on the ground tonight. The Huskers have allowed 157.0 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry against two mediocre running opponents. USC is going to unload on them big time. In the air, QB John David Booty has done his job and he is up against a Nebraska defense that has been very good allowing opponents to complete only 41.2% of their passes for 4.8 yards per pass attempt and 3 interceptions on the year. However, this game won't be about passing the ball for the Trojans. They will have so much success running for chunks of yards on the ground that the passing game will take care of itself and Booty will certainly run some play action and connect with WR Fred Davis on a long bomb. Don't get too excited guys but Nebraska just can't keep up with USC's powerful offense. Not on National TV.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers and their fans can be pretty damn excited about starting the season 2-0 (1-1 ATS) but did you guys know that you just played against two quarterbacks making their virtual first college football starts ever? You easily beat Nevada and QB Nick Graziano (who had played behind Jeff Rowe but not done much) and you had problems beating Wake Forest and their backup QB Brett Hodges who had thrown 2 pass attempts before the season started. So now you guys have to face the best team in the Country with the front-runner QB for the Heisman Trophy and you think you can cover 10 points as a home underdog? Wow...gut check time boys. Nebraska is 3-0 ATS under Bill Callahan as home underdogs in Lincoln but was against Missouri, Texas and Texas Tech (all from the Big 12). Nebraska has never won against USC but they have beat some other teams from the PAC 10. I also want to know how Nebraska backers expect to win/cover this game with only 11 starters back from last season and a defense that brings back only 5 starters? That's pretty much betting suicide against a coach like Pete Carroll who will at times make Callahan look like an ass clown. The Huskers come into this game averaging 36.0 points per game this season on 498.5 total yards of offense and 5.8 yards per play. USC took it easy on Idaho in their first game and allowed 10 points on 253.0 total yards of offense and 3.8 yards per play. Nebraska loves to run the ball with RB Marlon Lucky who has led the team to 263.5 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry. NOT HAPPENING IN THIS GAME. As a matter of fact, I don't see Nebraska breaking the 50 yard rushing mark here against a USC defense that allowed only 3.1 yards per carry against Idaho but that has the best Defensive Line, Linebacking corps and secondary in the PAC 10 and possibly in the Nation. Nothing is going to work for Lucky today. That means QB Sam Keller can come in and make more stupid mistakes. Keller has completed only 57.6% of his passes for 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. USC's secondary is downright nasty but Keller will have some success because all Nebraska can do in this game is throw the ball and play from behind. The Trojans allowed only 4.4 yards per pass attempt in their first game but like I said, Keller (who will have the ball more than he can imagine after all the times USC scores) will pass for 300+ yards but he will also be under pressure all night and making mistakes once again.
Nebraska cannot stop the run and there is no way they can stop USC's running attack that has five players with 5+ carries in their opening game. CJ Gable is averaging 8.5 yards per carry (8 carries), Stafon Johnson is averaging 5.3 yards per carry (12 carries) and has 2 touchdowns, Desmond Reed is averaging 7.2 yards per carry (5 carries), Joe Mcknight is averaging 4.3 yards per carry (6 carries). Watch out...this baby could be lights out by the time some of you Nebraska loving clowns have time to grab that first piece of corn to shove up your asses. Pete Carroll has had two weeks to prepare for this game and he brings his crew to Lincoln with the intention of embarassing Nebraska on National TV and re-affirming his teams spot at the top of the rankings polls. USC is the kind of team that almost always excels in games like this one and this should be no different. There is no doubt Nebraska can also make some noise with a few big plays but in the end their are badly outmatched at almost every position in this game and they don't return enough players to have a clue what to do against the USC onslaught. USC will dominate but Nebraska will make it look closer than it is with some late touchdowns in garbage time.
PS2 Simulation Result: USC 37, Nebraska 21
Florida State Seminoles -4.5 (10 Units)
I swore a few weeks ago I would probably never bet on Florida State again for the next few years but for some reason I have decided to once agains trust them in this type of matchup. The Noles are not off to the best of starts after losing their opener against Clemson as -3.5 point favorites on the road and then struggling badly against UAB for an entire half as -36 point favorites before winning 34-24. So they are 0-2 ATS and I don't know that many people will even bother betting on this team anymore which can only be good news for us. The Seminoles finally got things going on offense against UAB but it took a bit too much time and will have to happen a lot faster in this game if they want to earn the blowout win. This is the first time Florida State makes a trip to Boulder, Colorad but at least we know that they have had success in the past against Big 12 opponents as they are 29-13 all time versus this conference. The Noles have the week off next week so this is the big game they want to win. They play against Alabama, NC State, Wake Forest and Miami right out of the break and seeing how those are all winnable games, I think Florida State needs a good showing here. The Seminoles come into the game averaging 26.0 points per game on 388.0 total yards of offense and 5.4 yards per play. That's not that good but Colorado has allowed 30.5 points per game this season and they did that on 396.0 total yards of offense and 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, RB Antone Smith (despite the minor concussion last week) should have another big game. He has led this team to 151.0 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry. Colorado has a very good defensive line but once you get into the secondary on a run, it's blastoff time. Expect Smith to take a few big ones close to the house. In the air, QB Drew Weatheford is still the guy and has completed 55.7% of his passes for 474 yards, 6.9 yards per pass attempt and 4 touchdowns. Not bad. He should have another good game in this one against a Colorado secondary that is weak as balls and allowed opponents to complete 60.9% of their passes this season for 7.8 yards per pass attempt. WR's De'Cody I love sex and Greg Carr will badly outrun and outjump these Colorado DB's and Weatheford could have one of his best games in a very long time. For once the Florida State offense will do enough to keep the defense fresh and play the way they are supposed to play.
The Colorado Buffaloes are off to a so-so start with their 1-1 record (1-1 ATS) and I'm not too sure what to think of Dan Hawkins and the way he runs this team. One offense he has 9 returning starters and he has looked pretty good in one game but crappy in the other and on defense he has only 6 starters returning and they have looked like complete garbage in both games. So that could prove to be a big problem against a Florida State team looking for any opponent to embarass to put their own name back in the ACC Title game talks and Colorado might just be that opponent. Colorado used to be one of those teams that would never lose their home opener as they are 16-3 in their last 19 home openers at Foldom Field but they lost here in their first game in 2006 against Montana State (I-AA) so putting another loss past them is nothing big. The Buffaloes were 1-1 ATS as a home underdog last season, losing by 18 to Arizona State and beating Texas Tech by 24. They lost 4 games at home in 2006 and those games lost were by 9 points against Montana State, 18 points against Arizona State, 3 points against Baylor (as favorites though) and by 13 points against Kansas State. So if you like Colorado to cover, consider these numbers please. The Buffaloes come into the game averaging 22.5 points per game and they have done that on only 268.0 total yards of offense and only 4.1 yards per play (could be the weakest offense Florida State has faced all year). The Seminoles have yet to flex their defensive muscles as they have allowed 24.0 points per game on 318.5 total yards of offense and 4.9 yards per play. They can do better. The problem with Colorado is that they have offense. On the ground they have averaged only 85.0 rushing yards on 3.1 yards per carry and won't get much more than that against a Florida State defense that has allowed only 3.6 yards per carry on the season at a 125.5 yards clip per game. In the air, QB Cody Hawkins is head coach daddy's little boy and he has completed only 44.6% of his passes for 356 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions and 4.8 yards per pass attempt. Florida State should have no problems pressuring him all night as Hawkins has one of the worst offensive lines and nobody to throw to. The Seminoles have allowed only 51.7% of passes to be completed against them this season for only 6.4 yards per pass attempt. I think it's gonna be turnovers mania for the Buffaloes in this game and Myron Rolle will probably pick Hawkins a few times. Colorado is absolutely no match for a team like Florida State.
The bottom line here is that a middle of the pack team like Colorado (Big 12) cannot compete with one of the most reputable programs of the last 10 years or so. We saw it in 2003 when Florida State blew the socks off Colorado at home in a 47-7 romp. We won't be seeing that kind of blowout tonight but we do know that the Seminoles defense is going to have to carry this team in games like this and tonight they will. Colorado's offense is as putrid as it gets and Im really not impressed with Hawkins son as the QB. I think the Seminoles defense is going to force a bunch of turnovers in this game and they will get their offense good field position all game and allow the floodgates to bust open right from the getgo. Antone Smith is not 100% with his concussion but several guys are waiting to step in (Marcus Sims) and Bobby Bowden needs this game before heading into a very tough part of their yearly schedule. The Noles have not looked good this season and a lot of people have given up on them but the mismatch here is too extreme and I can't believe the line is so terrible.
PS2 Simulation Result: Florida State 41, Colorado 0
WEEKLY RECAP
Maryland +16
Troy +10
Pittsburgh +11
Central Michigan +21
Tennessee +7
Michigan -7.5
Ohio State -4
Texas -18.5
Alabama -3
Boston College +6.5
Southern California -9.5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Florida State -4.5
Good Luck to all!
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 13-12 (-7.70 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2 (-0.40 Units)
PS2 Simulations: 7-3 ATS (+26.50 Units)
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. Not the kind of start I was looking for but after observing and watching things play out this past weekend, I think it helped a lot of grow as cappers and Im a big believer in the 'watch and learn' type of theory. The rule changes didn't make much of a difference but new coaches did (Dantonio was impressive) and I would love to turn things around this week with the help of my new little friend. Anybody remember my PS2 simulations a while back? Almost time to bring them back for good. LOL!
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Thursday, September 13
Maryland Terrapins +16 (5 Units)
Alright class...by a show of hands, who thinks West Virginia deserved to cover the spread against Marshall last weekend? If you have your hand up right now...please take that hand and shove it right up your ass. Plain and simple. If you watched the game, the Mountaineers were in great danger of possibly losing the game (for the most part) until they pulled away with a bunch of quick fourth quarter touchdowns. When you're talked as a possible National Title Contender, you're not supposed to struggle against teams like Marshall no matter what kind of atmosphere you're in and no matter what kind of storylines are attached to the game. Several people used the excuse that had they played like they did in the fourth quarter all game, they would have won by 40+ but the bottom line is they didn't so why would you think they do this week against a tougher opponent? It has been quite some time (dont have the numbers) since West Virginia has won in College Park by more than 10-11 points. RB Steve Slaton had originally been given a scholarship to Maryland until the Terps head coach Ralph Friedgen pulled it and he went to West Virginia and has haunted Maryland since with his performances against them. Well that ain't happening this time. The Mountaineers come into this game averaging 55.0 points per game on 526.0 total yards of offense per game and 7.7 yards per play. However, Maryland's defense is somewhat underrated and they have allowed only 12.0 points per game in their first two games on 176.0 total yards of offense and only 4.6 yards per play. On the ground West Virginia has been turning teams inside out rushing for 338.5 yards per game on 7.1 yards per carry. However, even though Maryland has played against two shitty opponents, they have allowed only 47.5 rushing yards per game and only 2.0 yards per carry. We all saw it against Marshall...if you slow down the ground attack of WVU, they have a passing game but the offense just doesn't run the same. QB Pat White has done a decent job completing 63.9% of his passes for 9.5 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. Maryland's pass defense has not looked good in their first two games allowing 8.6 yards per pass attempt and allowing their two weak opponents to complete 83.3% of their passes but both opponents were run-based offenses much like West Virginia so the Terps should be ready for the onslaught. They already have 3 interceptions on the year and seeing how Pat White had 7 interceptions in 2006 and has none this season, he is most certainly due to make a few mistakes in a somewhat hostile environment (the most hostile this year anyways).
The Maryland Terrapins are off to a 2-0 start but 0-1 ATS record which doesn't really tell us much right now. We all know that Maryland allowed a whopping 340 rushing yards to the Mountaineers in last year's 45-24 loss in Morgantown but the defensive line has improved a lot this season and the Terps have already started preparing for this game by using the same gameplan for the first two games as they are going to for this game...STOP THE RUN and force to the air! The Terrapins have 14 starters back this season and are coming off a very good 9-4 season under the Fridge and although QB Sam Hollenbach has to be replaced (that might actually be a positive), I think they can get things done on the defensive side of things. The Terps are coming off wins over Villanova (I-AA) and Florida International and as bad as they looked at times in those games, we all know they had this game on their minds. Ralph Friedgen has been haunted by RB Steve Slaton ever since pulling his scholarship from Maryland a few years but this is the year the Fridge puts his foot down and does something about it. Maryland's offense is probably the biggest concern having to break in the new quarterback but they have averaged 28.5 points per game in their first two games on 343.5 total yards of offense and 4.8 yards per play. West Virginia's defense obviously has a lot more issues than most of us thought as they have allowed 23.5 points per game and allowed 333.5 total yards on 4.9 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB's Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball (both very experienced) should give WVU all they can handle as they rushed for 172.5 yards per game in the first two games on 4.0 yards per carry. Maryland is said to have the best offensive line in the ACC this season and although that may be true, the Mountaineers are probably going to have success getting through to the new QB (they are big and tough). But as long as Maryland can keep things on the ground and keep that clock moving, the Mountaineers offense is off the field and the spread looks better and better. In the air, QB Jordan Steffy looked pretty damn good completing 75.5% of his passes for 309 yards, 6.3 yards per pass attempt but no touchdowns yet in two games. That could all change in this one. West Virginia has shown weaknesses in the secondary and up the middle as they have allowed opponents to complete 62.2% of their passes for 6.9 yards per pass attempt with 2 interceptions. I don't expect Maryland to do much on offense tonight but the more the offense stays on the field and keeps the clock moving, the more the defense is going to frustrate the Mountaineers and hold them to FG's or long drives that waste a lot of time.
It seems like some of you just don't learn your lesson the first time. West Virginia showed last week why they cannot be trusted as a road favorite of double digits and even though they covered the spread, some of their weaknesses were badly exposed. Although West Virginia has won the last three meetings between these two teams, those meetings have been won by an average scoring margin of only 12.0 points and Maryland has another good team this season so expect a much closer game than people think. All the talk continues to surround Steve Slaton and his desire to burry Maryland into the ground for what they did to him. However, I think Slaton's focus this year is more on the National Championship and this team wants to win anyway they can (blowout or not) as long as they can stay in the TOP 5 teams in the Country. Don't understimate home underdogs on Nationally Televised games. We all saw how poorly West Virginia played at times last week and I think Maryland is going to be another tough opponent that doesn't break in the fourth quarter like the Thundering Herd did last week.
PS2 Simulation Result: West Virginia 25, Maryland 10
Friday, September 14
Troy Trojans +10 (5 Units)
What can be said about the Oklahoma State Cowboys? First of all they come into this game off an impressive ass whipping of Florida Atlantic (supposedly the second best team in the Sun Belt Conference) but they are 1-1 ATS on the year and who knows what to expect from them in their second road game of the season. Their first road game was a 35-14 loss to a Georgia team that now looks like it's not all that. As a road favorite under Mike Gundy, the Cowboys are 2-1 ATS over the last two seasons but this could prove to be one of their toughest road games ever as a favorite. The Cowboys are still without last year's top rusher RB Dantrell Savage who hurt himself against Georgia and sat out against Florida Atlantic. Savage ran for 820 yards last season on 6.5 yards per carry and not having him in there is a big loss. However, the Cowboys are in for one hell of a tough time on National TV and playing against an inspired team that has pulled off upsets in the past and that has played their balls off in similar situations in the past. Oklahoma State comes into the game averaging 28.0 points per game but only 289.5 total yards of offense per game on 4.2 yards per play. Troy's defense has had it tough against Arkansas and Florida to open the season and to nobody's surprise they have allowed 52.5 points per game so far on 503.0 total yards of offense and 7.0 yards per play. I actually expect that to improve today. On the ground, Oklahoma State is averaging 151.0 rushing yards per game on only 4.2 yards per carry and without Savage, those numbers won't get any better. Troy has allowed 300+ yards rushing in both games this season but now that they are at home, expect some big time improvements. In the air QB Bobby Reid has completed 58.9% of his passes for 225 yards per game and 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Although they have yet to show it this season, Troy has one of the best DB corps in the Sun Belt and I think tonight they cut down on the 8.4 yards per pass attempt they have allowed so far. Oklahoma State is gonna get some yards in this one but they are on the road, Savage is not there to chew up some yards and eat up some clock which will force the Cowboys to throw more than they want to and Troy's defense is going to show a great improvement on their performance of the first two weeks.
The Troy Trojans have the Nation's 97th toughest schedule but I doubt anyone in Troy would agree with that seeing how they opened the season by playing two road games against Arkansas and Florida of the SEC and now they have to return home and play against one of the top teams in the Big 12. So what gives? Well this is their last big opponent (apart from Georgia in November) and this is the game Troy will probably want to win or really compete in since they are playing in front of a packed Movie Gallery Veterans Stadium. Some of you may think the atmosphere here is going to stink but that couldn't be further from the truth. Troy has had the same coach for 16 seasons now and he has never lost a home opener. EVER! I know it's tough to bet on a team like this that is coming off two blowout losses to big conference opponents but they beat Missouri here in 2004 (another Big 12 member) and Oklahoma State could be next. The Trojans are defending Sun Belt Conference champions (something you can't forget) and they have 13 starters back to help them defend that title. Troy comes into this game averaging 28.5 points per game and they have done that by averaging 359.5 total yards of offense on 4.8 yards per play this season. Oklahoma State's defense has definitely improved the last few seasons and they have allowed only 20.5 points per game so far this season on 289.0 total yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play. However, over the last three seasons, Troy has scored more than 20 points at home in 11 of 15 home games so they should be just fine. On the ground, the Trojans have averaged 120.0 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry and I think this is where they can have success. Oklahoma State has allowed only 85.0 yards rushing per game on only 2.1 yards per carry but they still have one of the weakest defensive lines in football and I think Troy can get their QB's moving and running some trick plays. In the air, the Troy QB's have completed only 45.5% of their passes but QB Omar Haugabook is still the boss around here and he was the Sun Belt offensive player of the year in 2006. He had a 61% completion percentage last season with 21 passing touchdowns and 5 rushing touchdowns. Oklahoma State's two opposing QB's completed 66.1% of their passes against this secondary for 7.3 yards per pass attempt. Haugabook does make quite a few mistakes but he does have a pretty damn good arm and his top two receivers from 2006 are back with a few more options to go along with it. I don't think he has to do too much in this game but with the hype of the National Television audience watching, I think Haugabook is going to make some huge plays downfield. As long as the offensive line can protect him most of the night, the Troy Trojans are about to go to war with Oklahoma State and this game could easily ressemble the Middle Tennessee-Louisville game from last week where the Sun Belt Conference opponent shows their worth on offense and shoots things out with the team from the bigger conference.
Troy head coach Larry Blakeney has been the head coach here for 16 seasons and never has his team lost their home opener. That makes them 16-0 in home openers under Blakeney and 70-11-1 at home under coach Blakeney who also has 92 D-AA wins. Make no mistake about it, the rabid fans of Troy are coming out in piles for the FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS showdown tonight and Oklahoma State might not know what they have coming. The last time Troy played a Thursday or Friday night home game on National TV was back in 2004 against the #19 ranked Missouri and they beat them 24-14 in stunning fashion. I don't expect this game to be low-scoring at all because Oklahoma State does not want to be another Missouri and we have already seen some weaknesses in the Troy defense but make no mistake about it, the Trojans can ball and they have the QB and WR's to score just as many times as Oklahoma State if they have to. I think we are in for a treat of a game where Troy is in it for the most part before Oklahoma State pulls away and wins this game with a late touchdown or some late points. Don't underestimate the Trojans. Their offense is going to look better than Oklahoma State's but in the end the Cowboys will win it on better defense when it matters most.
PS2 Simulation Result: Oklahoma State 38, Troy 31
Saturday, September 15
Pittsburgh Panthers +11 (10 Units)
So right off the top of your heads, Pittsburgh is not worthy of competing against this Michigan State team? Okay that's fine for those taking the Spartans in this one because the last time I checked, Pittsburgh lost to Michigan State at home last year by a blowout score of 38-23 and I think they come into this game with something called 'revenge' on their minds. Make no mistake about it guys...Dave Wannstedt has his best team yet since taking this job some two seasons ago and I think he is taking this team to a Bowl Game. The Panthers were favored in all five of their road games last season but now that the hype is gone and people don't expect anything from these guys anymore, they get to finally compete as underdogs and show what they are all about. The Panthers are off to a 2-0 start (1-0 ATS with a big cover against Eastern Michigan) and now comes their biggest test of the new season. With 14 starters back from a team that went 6-6 (5-6 ATS) last season, the Panthers have set themselves up to make this a game. They come into the game averaging 30.5 points per game on 336.5 total yards of offense and 5.5 yards per play which is good. Michigan State's defense has played a lot better than many people thought they would but they have not really been tested yet and have allowed only 290.5 total yards on 4.0 yards per play. The Panthers have not had immense success rushing the ball this season because RB LaRod Stephens-Howling is out with an injury (might play Saturday) and they average only 3.7 yards per carry. That's not where the points are going to come from for Pitt as Michigan State allows only 36.0 rushing yards per game on 1.3 yards per carry. Despite playing well so far, I think Michigan State has one of the worst Defensive Lines in the BIG 10 and RB LeSean McCoy is a superstar waiting to breakout (he has rushed for 177 yards on 30 carries with 3 touchdowns and 5.9 yards per carry this season). I think there is no doubt that he can rush for 140+ yards in this game if he is the featured back. Pittsburgh's ground attack could be huge in this one. That should open things up for QB Kevan Smith who takes over for the injured Bill Stull. Smith looked pretty damn good against Grambling last week passing for 223 yards on 8.3 yards per pass attempt and a 66.7% completion rate. Michigan State has allowed opponents to complete 58.9% of their passes for 5.7 yards per pass attempt this season and although that's not bad, Smith will probably have a lot of chances to go deep with the running attack having so much success in this one. WR Derek Kinder (Big East 1st team last year) is out for the year but WR Oderick Turner has been a star this season and he'll do it again in this one catching a long bomb for six. Pittsburgh shows they are the real deal in this game.
The Michigan State Spartans looked like the new coming of Ohio State or something when they kicked off the year with a 55-18 win over UAB covering the -23.5 point spread by halftime and rolling from there. However, as many of you have probably already noticed, Michigan State looked sluggish last week against a better opponent in Bowling Green won by 11 as -17.5 points favorites) so you have to believe that will probably take another step back down to earth in this game against a pretty damn good Pittsburgh team. Marl Dantonio came out of the gates with a bang in Week 1 but this is his first true test as head coach of this team, a team a lot of experts said would still finish near the bottom of the BIG 10 and also said it would take a few more years for them to get back to where they were in the old days. You have to keep in mind that as the season progresses, the fact that the Spartans only have 12 returning starters is going to hurt them against teams with more experience. UAB had only 8 returning starters so that would probably explain why they blew them out. Pittsburgh has 14 returning starters this season. Michigan State comes into this game averaging 41.5 points per game on 491.5 total yards of offense and 6.6 yards per play. However, Pitt's defense is a lot tougher than they were last year and they have allowed only 6.5 points per game this season and allowed only 192.0 total yards of offense per game and 3.1 yards per play. On the ground, much like last season's meeting, I think the Spartans will have success running the ball. They average 220.0 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry with RB Javon Ringer leading the way. The Panthers linebacking corps is weak and I think Ringer is going to break a few big ones in this game even though the Panthers allow only 2.4 yards per carry so far this year. QB Brian Hoyer has been great so far with his 451 passing yards on 9.8 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns but two interceptions. That's good but not great because the Panthers have a very aggressive secondary that already has 4 interceptions this season and Hoyer looked a bit shaky with some of his throws last week. Pittsburgh's first two opponents managed to complete only 49.3% of their passes for only 3.8 yards per pass attempt and I think it's going to be a lot tougher for Hoyer to keep up in this game with the big playmakers on Pitt's defense. Expect some fireworks from both sides in this one as it should be high scoring and very close in the end.
Pittsburgh has never won against Michigan State but don't let that take away from the fact that most of those games were decades ago and the fact that Pittsburgh comes into this game with revenge on their minds from that blowout loss to the Spartans last year. Some of you have expressed concerns with the fact that Pittsburgh's RB might not play in this game but this is the COMING OUT PARTY for the running back of the future LeSean McCoy. If you did not know this kid coming into this game you will know him coming out as he should rush for 140+ yards against a weak Michigan State defensive line. You might also have concerns about a redshirt freshman making his first real start for Pitt but this Smith kid was the official backup to Tyler Palko the entire summer in 2006 as Stull was injured. Smith can definitely ball and he's gonna show it today. Hoyer has been good for Michigan State but I don't think he can be as effective against this Pittsburgh defense that returns more starters than last year's defense that allowed only 22.6 points per game. Two good coaches going up against each other but I give the edge to Wanndstedt in his third season as the head coach.
PS2 Simulation Result: Pittsburgh 56, Michigan State 31
Central Michigan Chippewas +21 (5 Units)
The Chippewas from Central Michigan were the cash moneymake of the 2006 season as they went 10-4 straight up and an impressive 10-2-1 ATS over the course of the season. That means that if you bet on them and them only, you made some mad cash and you probably don't have to bet on anything anymore. Well after two games this season Central Michigan is 1-1 both ATS and straight up and even though they were blown out against a very average Kansas Jayhawks team in opening week, I don't know that anyone expected much more from these guys seeing how they have to work in a brand new head coach and seeing how it was his very first game as a head coach at the collegiate level (He was the offensive coordinator at CMU last year) Butch Jones did what he could to survive and it didn't work. The Chippewas recovered nicely last week as they opened things up on offense and blew the snot out of Toledo in a 52-31 romp. So we have seen two sides to this team and it will be interesting to see which one shows up to play against a BIG 10 opponent that has already beat them twice in the past. The Chippewas come into this game averaging 29.5 points per game on 374.5 total yards of offense and 5.5 yards per play but they are up against a Purdue defense that is returning 9 starters and that has allowed only 15.0 points per game in their first two games for 283.5 total yards and 4.0 yards per play. On the ground, Central Michigan is averaging 165.5 rushing yards per game on a whopping 4.9 yards per carry. However, despite the speed and abilities of RB Ontario Sneed, I don't think the Chipps can run against a Purdue Big 10 defense that allows only allows 128.5 rushing yards per game. Well its not that they can't, it's that they won't be able to run when playing from behind. So in the air, QB Dan LeFevour has been decent passing for 409 yards, 3 touchdown, 0 interceptions, 6.2 yards per pass attempt and completing 57.6% of his passes. Purdue has done a great job against the pass holding their opponents to 3.9 yards per pass attempt and 49.4% completion rate. However they're defense is not nearly as good as we have seen and a team like Central Michigan should have no problems exposing them for what they are. LeFevour was the MAC Rookie of the Year in 2006 with his 26 touchdown passes and only 10 interceptions. Purdue's secondary is not very good with picks so don't expect LeFevour to make many costly mistakes in this game. Sneed could have a big game but I think it will come on short passes from LeFevour and screen passes rather than a direct attack on the bigger Purdue defensive line. The Chippewas scored 29.7 points per game last season, im sure they can keep those scoring ways going against Purdue and keep this closer than people think.
The Purdue Boilermakers cost me some cash the two or three times I bet on them last year so I have no reason to trust them again this season, specially not against the best ATS team of 2006 in college football. The Boilermakers have a much better team than the 8-6 squad (6-6 ATS) they had last year as they return 18 starters (nine of each side of the ball) and Joe Tiller could have his best team ever in front of him. Now let's see what he can do with these guys. The Boilermakers blew out Toledo in their season opener easily covering the -6 point spread and then went on to demolish I-AA opponent Eastern Illinois by a score of 52-6 at home last week. However, do some of you have a hard time swallowing the fact that they went from a -6 road favorite against one MAC Conference opponent to being favored by 20+ points at home against another MAC Conference opponent...one that just beat that same Toledo team by almost the exact same score? I do. Purdue has always had success against teams from the MAC but their two blowout wins over Central Michigan were with Drew Brees as the quarterback and im pretty sure that QB Curtis Painter is nothing like Drew Brees and the defense is not what it used to be back in that day. The Boilermakers come into this game averaging 52.0 points per game on 513.5 total yards of offense per game and 6.6 yards per play. Central Michigan should have the same solid defense as the last two seasons. However they have yet to show it allowing 508.0 total yards per game, 41.5 points per game and 6.7 yards per play. On the ground, Purdue is averaging 210.5 rushing yards per game on 5.8 yards per carry but something tells me they are going to have a tougher time running the ball today against the best group of linebackers in the MAC Conference. Purdue might get some short yardage but they won't get into the secondary. Central Michigan has allowed only 4.4 yards per carry this season which should also improve as the season moves long. QB Curtis Painter is no doubt going to have a monster day in this one as he has completed 65.8% of his passes for 599 yards, 7.6 yards per pass attempt and a whopping 10 touchdown passes. Central Michigan has been horrendous against the passing attacks so far this season allowing 65.8% of passes to be completed against for 9.2 yards per pass attempt and no interceptions. The Chippewas, as well as they have played on defense the last few years, cannot stop the Purdue attack but their offense can certainly match what Purdue is doing in this game to a certain degree.
Everything points against Central Michigan having any chance of winning this football game. They are 0-13 versus current BIG 10 schools and they are only 6-25 on natural grass since 1995. However, nobody is talking about winning this game here...we are talking about covering a spread that seems way too high for a team like Purdue to cover and we are talking about Central Michigan who has been one of the best ATS teams over the last two seasons. If you're betting on Purdue in this game, can you please tell me how they went from a -6 point road favorite against a MAC Opponent (Toledo) a few weeks ago to a -21 points home favorite against another MAC Opponent (Central Michigan) who just beat that other MAC Conference team by the same score as Purdue? It doesn't make any sense to back Purdue in this game. The key here is that we all know Purdue is going to put some points on the board but we are also banking on Central Michigan doing some scoring of their own against a defense that allowed too many points last year and that is still allowing too many points against teams like Toledo. Chippewas to the bank!
PS2 Simulation Result: Purdue 31, Central Michigan 21
Tennessee Volunteers +7 (10 Units)
For the second time in three weeks, the Tennessee Volunteers have to go on the road and they have to play against a very tough TOP 25 ranked opponent. As a matter of fact the Vols have the #18 ranked toughest schedule in the Country and going to Gainesville to play in the swamp against the Gators is as tough as it gets in College football. Phillip Fulmer is most definitely not worried about his team having to play this game because this time they don't change significant time zones and this time they play in a familiar atmosphere with revenge on their minds and not the other way around like the Cal game. In last year's meeting in Knoxville, Florida stole a win away from the Vols with a 21-20 performance in Neyland Stadium and I am pretty sure that Tennessee still has that loss on their minds because it was the one loss that really screwed them in the end. So after losing 45-31 to California the first week, the Vols bounced back and went back to basics in their second game as they pulled off a nice 39-19 win over Southern Mississippi as -11.5 point favorites. The Vols also come into this game averaging 35.0 points per game this season on 425.5 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play. They are up against a Gators defense that has yet to be tested and that returns only 2 starters this season. Florida has allowed 17.0 points per game this season on 286.0 total yards of offense and only 4.5 yards per play. Tennessee is averaging 152.0 rushing yards per game this season on 4.6 yards per carry which is good news because they will need to put pressure on this untested Florida defense and establish guys like RB Arian Foster and RB Lennon Creer who are both having pretty damn good seasons so far. QB Erik Ainge has done a great job so far completing 66.3% of his passes for 547 total passing yards, 6.6 yards per pass attempt and 5 touchdown passes with no interceptions. He has been sacked only twice and is going up against a Florida defense that has allowed weak opponents to complete 60.8% of their passes this season for 6.0 yards per pass attempt. With so much youth on this Florida team, expect Ainge to pass for 200+ yards in this game with some big plays to some of his young receivers. There is no reason for Tennessee to struggle putting points on the board in this place even though they have scored a combined 31 points the last two times here.
The Florida Gators, or sorry...the defending champion Florida Gators are off to a pretty damn good start this season with two blowout wins over two nobody opponents but now that the first test of the year has arrived, how will some of these guys react? They have only 8 returning starters with only two of them being on defense which is going to be quite the big problem against a very potent Tennessee offense. Im pretty sure the Vols are nothing like the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers or the Troy Trojans so the Ben Hill Griffin Stadium faifthful better be ready for a shocker. Historically in this matchup or this series, the home team has not done well and not played the way they have the rest of the season. The home team is only 2-5 in this series and after holding Tennessee to only -11 rushing yards their meeting last year in Knoxville, Urban Meyer has to be very careful in this spot because we all know how pissed coach Fullmer was last year and he comes into this game with a big head of steam. The swamp is always a tough place to play but the SEC produces some of the closest and best games you will ever see...this being another one of them. The Gators come into this game averaging 54.0 whopping points per game this season and they have done it on 500.5 total yards of offense and an impressive 8.0 yards per play. Tennessee is another team that struggled with losses on defense and they have allowed 32.0 points per game so far this season on 412.5 total yards of offense and 6.0 yards per play which can't be good for them against Florida. The Gators love to run the ball and they average 219.5 rushing yards per game on 5.6 yards per carry this season which is going to be a problem for Tennessee who have allowed 160.0 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry. That's fine because we know Florida is going to put some points on the board and we know Tim Tebow is going to have a huge day but I dont think it will be on the ground. Speaking of Tebow and the passing game, he has completed 73.8% of his passes for 536 yards, 12.8 yards per pass attempt and 6 touchdown passes with no interceptions. Tennessee's strength on defense is definitely their LB corps and their D-Line but they have to show it and I think they can shut down Florida's rushing attack. The Vols have allowed their opponents to complete 58.0% of their passes this season for 7.3 yards per pass attempt and I think the Gators can demolish this weak Tennessee secondary. The only problem is that they might be too stubborn and run the ball a few too many times which could cost them some time and some needed yardage to cover this kind of spread. Regardless, Florida has a lot of injuries right now and this should be close.
A spot in the SEC Title game is on the line in this one as the loser of this game has not made it to the SEC Title game since 1997 (thanks Phil Steele). How oddsmakers came up with this kind of line is beyond me seeing how not only is this an SEC rivalry game but this is a game with a lot on the line and six of the last 9 meetings between these two teams have been determined by 4 points or less. That virtually makes this a field goal game at best, kinda like the South Carolina-Georgia game last weekend, and I don't understand why anyone in their right mind would take so many points for the defending champions. Phillip Fulmer was pissed off after last year's loss and seeing how the home team has not had much success in this series in the past, I think Fulmer and his guys are going to be ready to push Florida right down to the last possession of this game. The only problem for Tennessee is that they don't have it in them to make that final stop and beat the Gators in the swamp. Im taking the points and running away with them.
PS2 Simulation Result: Florida 38, Tennessee 35
Michigan Wolverines -7.5 (5 Units)
I have to first and foremost admit that I was one of the idiot's who took Notre Dame last week as +17.5 point underdogs against Penn State but when I look at the big picture of things, I think the game and missed cover were both a lot closer than the final score indicates. It took a very late score by the Nittany Lions to cover the spread by 3.5 points and had it not been for so many miscues on both sides of the ball, the Irish woulda made that a ball game. Ah well...that was then and this is now. In their two games this season the Irish have looked like a first year team moving into the I-A division for the first time and although their list of opponents is tough and they have all the odds stacked against them, performing the way they performed is both embarassing to the program and to the fans who have supported them for so long. The Irish are now 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS after the losses to Georgia Tech and Penn State and they now have to face a pissed off Michigan team who is also 0-2 on the year. With the ATS loss against Penn State, Charlie Weiss is now 0-2 ATS as a road underdog the last two seasons and something tells me the trend continues today. The Irish come into the game averaging a pathetic 6.5 points per game this season and they have done it on an even more pathetic 135.0 total yards of offense in both games and 2.2 yards per play. Is that possible in college football? Michigan has allowed 36.5 points per game this season on 505.5 total yards of offense and 7.0 yards per play but their two opponents (App State and Oregon) were dual threat offenses that could run and pass just as well as the other. Notre Dame is far from that as they average only -4.5 yards per game this season (OUCH) and -0.1 yards per carry. In the air, QB Jimmy Clausen looked better last week but he is still completing only 55.3% of his passes for 4.7 yards per pass attempt and no touchdown passes on the season. Michigan's young secondary has been torched left and right this season allowing opponents to complete 69.4% of their passes for 10.6 yards per pass attempt. That means that Claussen should have his best game yet in college football but in the end it won't be enough to keep up with the Wolverines offense which should also have it's best output of the season. Notre Dame is going to improve in this game but this is the wrong time and the wrong place to be playing Michigan...much more so than when Oregon played them last week.
The Michigan Wolverines are no longer under pressure to do anything. They have lost five games in a row dating back to last season and now that they have lost the first two games of this season, losing another one on Saturday would not mean much. That's why I think they come out a lot looser in this one. After losing games against Appalachian State and against Oregon, the Wolverines find themselves in uncharted waters and that could also be a good thing for this team. Lloyd Carr has not been fired as of yet and this is a good chance for him to showcase his team on what is probably a soft line because Notre Dame is just as bad. You also have to consider that before facing Oregon and Appalachian State, Michigan was 19-1 at home versus non Big 10 opponents going all the way back to 1999. So as probably as it may seem to some, I don't see them losing three times against non-conference opponents in the same season. As much as the public has given up on this team, they are still loaded with talent and ready to make some noise. The Wolverines come into the game with a lot more efficiency on offense than Notre Dame as they average 19.5 points per game this season and have done that on 422.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play. Notre Dame's defense has been downright awful allowing 32.0 points per game on 347.0 total yards and 5.1 yards per play. On the ground is where I think Michigan clobbers the Irish. RB Mike Hart has guaranteed a win for the Wolverines and Heart is not one to talk shit if he ain't gonna back it up. Seeing how the Fighting Irish have allowed a whopping 212.0 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry this season, I think it would be safe to assume that Mike Hart is going to rush for 150+ yards and a few touchdowns in this game against a weak defensive line. That should help QB Ryan Mallett (who is replacing the injured Chad Henne) get his groove on. Mallett has completed only 6 of 17 passes this season for 49 yards, 1 interception and 2.9 yards per pass attempt but that was as the backup. Now that he is starting and facing a Notre Dame defense that allows miminal yardage in the air (only 5.9 yards per pass attempt allowed by the Irish so far), I think Mallett is going to have a lot more opportunities once Heart breaks a few big runs and the Irish have to start respecting the run by moving guys up. Mallett is a #1 prospect out of high school which means he definitely has enough talent to get things done as long as he keeps his cool. Michigan will have one of their best offensive games all season and it will be all thanks for Mike Heart who is going to unload on this Irish defense.
This is the first time in 25 years that neither team is ranked heading into this matchup and the first time ever that these two teams meet without having won a game. That's some shocking stuff right there and now that we have two troubled teams facing off against each other, this really comes down to who has the bigger leaders and the biggest HEART because this game is up for grabs. The difference between Notre Dame and Michigan is that the Irish don't have the talent or the personnel to turn things around right away this season. Michigan on the other hand is a lot better than they have played and now that nobody really cares about them losing once or losing twice, the pressure won't be as big to win this game so I think they come out with a bang. Had this Notre Dame team been anything like Appalachian State or Oregon, I would give them a big time chance to win in the big house but since they are horrendously worse than both those teams, I give them a zero percent chance of winning this game in this house.
PS2 Simulation Result: Michigan 42, Notre Dame 14
Ohio State Buckeyes -4 (5 Units)
This is the week the BIG 10 answers the bell and it all starts with the top two teams in the Conferece, Michigan and Ohio State. The BIG 10 has been subject to a lot of ridicule for some performances this season but it's only two weeks into the season and both these teams have a lot of time to prove nay-sayers wrong. It all starts today. Sure the Buckeyes lost guys like QB Troy Smith and RB Antonio Pittman but when you have such a powerful and reputable program like they do, replacing those guys is usualy not all that hard. Ohio State is 6-2 ATS as an away favorite the last two seasons and Jim Tressel loves proving people wrong when this team goes on the road. So they are 7-2 ATS the last two seasons when favored on the road and seeing how a lot of people think Washington has a good chance of winning here, I really think the Buckeyes put on a show and prove everyone wrong. I know Ohio State lost here in 1986 and in 1994 but that was way too long ago to take into consideration for this game. Ohio State is 13-3 in their last 16 non-conference away games so they don't be shocked when they win. They come into this game averaging 29.0 points per game on 397.5 total yards of offense and 5.5 yards per play which is not bad at all considering the changes they had to make. Washington is allowing only 11.0 points per game on 296.5 total yards and 4.3 yards per play so they have been impressive. On the ground, RB Chris Wells picked up where he left off in 2006 as he has led the team to 179.0 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry. Washington's defensive line has been great allowing only 54.5 rushing yards per game and 1.8 yards per carry but Chris Wells is by far the best running back they have faced and Ohio State's offensive line is about 20 times better than Boise State's and Syracuse's. Wells should break some big ones in this game and he should rush for 100+ yards. In the air, QB Todd Boeckman is very quick on his feet and has completed 67.4% of his passes for 356 yards, 4 touchdowns, 2 interceptions and 7.7 yards per pass attempt. Washington's pass defense is their weakness as they have allowed 62.0% of passes to be completed against them this season for 6.1 yards per pass attempt. They do have 7 sacks but Ohio State's offensive line is as solid as it gets. With Chris Wells breaking down the Huskies defense, Boeckman should be able to put a lot more points on the board than he did in his first two games. Ohio State should have no problems winning this game comfortably. Ohio State has fumbled and lost the ball four times this season so if they can fix that problem, winning will come easy.
The Washington Huskies have caught the wide eyed attention of every college football fan/bettor this season and they have done it because of their new superstar freshman QB Jake Locker. That and the fact that the Huskies are 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS having won a road game (yeah believe it guys...they really did) and they somehow managed to beat both Syracuse on the road and the ranked Boise State Broncos at home. In the past, Washington has been very good at home against opponents from other conferences (14-3 versus non-conference home opponents) but we are talking about the best of the BIG 10 here and not some Moutain West opponents like they have faced in the past. Washington is only 3-5 ATS as a home underdog under Tyrone Willingham and that tells me that when the rough gets going, Willingham doesn't have what it takes to get his guys prepared for games like this. Sure the two big wins have been nice and all but Willingham is still only 5-8 straight up at home in his career as Huskies head coach and the Buckeyes are one of his toughest opponents yet in Husky Stadium (despite the 70 000+ that will show up, its not too hard to win here for visiting teams). The Huskies come into the game averaging 33.0 points per game but have dont it on only 396.5 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play. Ohio State has been rock solid on defense allowing only 137.5 total yards per game, 4.0 points per game and a miniscule 2.6 yards per play to their two opponents. On the ground, the Huskies led by Locker have averaged 220.5 rushing yards per game on 5.6 yards per carry but running the ball against Ohio State is going to be a disaster. The Buckeyes have allowed only 59.0 rushing yards per game on 2.2 yards per carry this season and have one of the top 20 d-lines in this Country. That will force Locker to throw a lot more than he has in the past even though he has done well completing 61.4% of his passes for 335 yards and 7.6 yards per pass attempt. Ohio State has allowed opponents to complete only 54.9% of their passes this season for only 3.1 yards per pass attempt which could cause problems for the youngster. The Buckeyes have 5 sacks in two games and the pressure on him will be more than he has seen this season. I think for the first time in his young career Locker is going to look like just that...a young quarterback trying to find his way against a very good team like the Buckeyes. There is no way you can go against Ohio State in this game, they are just too good all around to lose and not cover.
The public is likely to be split on this one a) because of the way Ohio State has played and because they have to record a convincing win and b) because too many people think Washington QB Jake Locker is the second coming of God. Make no mistake about it...Locker is very good and Ohio State has sucked ass but the coaching matchup clearly favors the Buckeyes in this one and this is the kind of game they have been waiting for to prove their worth. Oddsmakers have really lowered the odds on what they would have been had Locker not been playing so well and it will be very interesting to see how he fares against a top notch defense like Ohio State's. My guess is that he is going to struggle. Ohio State beat Texas, Iowa, Michigan State, Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, Michigan and Minnesota in their last 8 road games making them 8-0 on the road since their loss to Penn State back in 2005. Washington is definitely not good enough all around to win this game nor will they be able to keep this thing under a touchdown like many people think they will. Should be a great game but the Buckeyes are the play.
PS2 Simulation Result: Ohio State 31, Washington 21
Texas Longhorns -18.5 (10 Units)
HOOK THOSE DAMN HORNS ALREADY! The Texas Longhorns come into this game having survived the first two games of their 38th toughest schedule in the Nation but that doesn't mean they are out of the woods year. The Longhorns were favored in all their road games in 2006 but somehow only went 1-3 ATS in those games and that's usually not good news for people who want to bet on them in the same situation this year...right? WRONG! As much as a bunch of people are going to be on this game as well, you just can't pass up the chance to take them at three touchdowns or less because the Horns always run up the score on opponents and the Horns still have a pretty damn good offense. There is no chance of Texas losing this game but now the question remains...can they cover the points? We are now one year later in the Colt McCoy saga so I think he has done some growing up and we are going to see him lead this team to a lot more ATS wins on the road this time around. The win over TCU was huge last week because a lot of experts said TCU could easily win that game and takeout the Horns but that never came close to happening. Texas comes into this game averaging 27.5 points per game and they did it by averaging 377.5 yards of offense per game on 5.2 yards per play. That's not all that great. UFC did a good job in their one and only game allowing 354.0 yards of offense on 5.1 yards per play but that was NC State and this is Texas. On the ground, the Horns have rushed for 146.5 yards per game this season on 4.0 yards per carry which is going to give the UCF defensive line some nightmares. I say that because although they allowed only 85.0 rushing yards to NC State, they did not see a back like Jamaal Charles who can drop 150+ on you at anytime. Charles should have a huge game in this one. In the air, Colt McCoy has completed 66.2% of his passes for 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. However he should have his best game yet against a UCF secondary that NC State to complete 63.2% of their passes last week for 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Sure they had two interceptions and McCoy has already thrown four but with the running game taking flight in this one, NC State is going to have to stack the box which should leave McCoy wide open to make some big time plays downfield. Like I said before, don't expect Texas to letup once they have a big lead...it would make no sense seeing how they still have a lot to work on offensively. Texas won't score a ton of points, but they'll do enough to win and cover.
The Central Florida Knights are about to break in their brand new stadium against one of the top teams in the Country the last five years and you can bet your bottom dollar this house is going to be rocking with 45 000 solid in what is a huge step for the future of this program. However, it doesn't mean that Central Florida is going to play any better at home than they did last season when they went 1-3 ATS as a home underdog and 2-4 ATS altogether in front of their hometown fans. UCF has been impressive in past home openers however as they have won 6 of their last 7 but they lost to Florida by 42 points last season and I don't see any reason why Texas wouldn't pull off the same kind of job in this game. UCF was damn impressive when they beat NC State 25-23 in their season opener two weeks ago and they do have one of the best defensive units in the Conference USA...which means this game will probably be closer than we think. However, NC State proved to be somewhat of a fraud team when they get lit up by Boston College last week and now the jury is still out on UCF's performance. The Knights come into this game off a 25 points performance against NC State where they had only 290.0 total yards of offense and 4.3 yards per play. Texas didn't look too sharp defensively in their opening games as they allowed 13.0 points per game on 324.0 total yards and 4.6 yards per play. However, the UCF offense is the weakest they have faced to date and a shutout is not out of the question. On the ground UCF has a superstar RB Kevin Smith who looks to be well on his way to another 1100+ yard season as the Knights rushed for 197.0 yards against NC State on 4.6 yards per carry. Only problem here is that Texas has allowed only 84.0 rushing yards on 2.5 yards per carry against two good running teams and I don't see Smith having a good game at all. In the air, QB Kyle Israel is the starter this season and he has completed only 50.0% of his passes for only 93 yards and 3.9 yards per pass attempt. Not gonna work against Texas. The Horns weakness is in the secondary and against the pass as they have allowed a 63.5% pass completion rate and 6.5 yards per pass attempt this season but UCF doesn't have enough weapons to exploit those weaknesses and I don't see Israel cracking the 100 yard passing mark for the second game in a row. The Horns love to force turnovers and UCF really needs to be careful what they do with the ball and where they give it back to Texas. The Knights have a good team but not good enough to compete in this game against a team hungry for another blowout win.
The books have lost their minds a little here and the public is reacting by pounding away on the Longhorns. I know the win by UCF was nice alst week or two weeks ago against NC State (on the road) but NC State looked like complete shit the next week against Boston College. Texas is capable of putting 50+ points on the board on any given week and although they most certainly won't do that in this game, I think when the fourth quarter comes rolling around this team is going to continue to pound away on UCF and continue to do what they can to earn some rankings points with other teams faltering along the way. UCF has a very good defensive unit and that should keep this thing interesting for a while. However, I just don't know how they are going to score any points in this game because they have very little experience on offense and they are playing against a Texas defense that has held opponents to 10 points or less seven times in the last two seasons. If they can score more than 10 points in this game I think they cover, but since I don't see them doing that, I think Texas rolls them up and throws them out...not in a blowout though.
PS2 Simulation Result: Texas 24, UCF 0
Alabama Crimson Tide -3 (5 Units)
I don't know what it is but there is something I don't like about this Arkansas Razorbacks team and I don't want to bet on them at all this season. They are coming off a 4-8 ATS (10-4 straight up) season and a lot of people have them pegged to do just as well this season but I don't think it's gonna happen and I don't see them winning this game. The Razorbacks opened their season two weeks ago with a 46-26 demolishing of Troy at home but they failed to cover the -22 points as the home favorite and are already showing signs of having problems covering spreads this season. Houston Nutt has been here a long time and the Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS the last two seasons as road underdogs but that doesn't mean that this year's team (defense is more of a concern than offense) can play like this team did last season. In their home meeting against Alabama last year, it took two overtime for Nutt and his guys to finally come away with the win so the fact that the Tide come into this game with some revenge on their minds has to be a bit concerning. The Razorbacks come into this game off a nice 46 point performance against Troy that saw them get 480.0 total yards of offense on 6.9 yards per play. However, they are up against a very tough Alabama defense that has now allowed only 8.0 points per game this season in their two games on 236.0 total yards of offense and only 3.6 yards per play. Arkansas ran one hell of a ground assault against Troy, compiling 340.0 rushing yards on 6.8 yards per carry in that game. RB Darren McFadden is a legit Heisman Trophy candidate but I think Alabama is going to contain him in this game even though they lost a lot of senior players from last year. The Tide have allowed only 63.0 rushing yards per game on 2.0 yards per carry and McFadden could have some problems. Arkansas' offensive line is one of the weakest in the SEC so expect Kevin Steele's defense to find a way to make some stops. That will force QB Casey Dick to throw the ball. Prior to the Troy game, Dick had completed only 51.0% of his passes in two years at Arkansas with 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Nothing special. Dick was again just average in the opener going 10 for 18 with 91 passing yards and no touchdowns. Alabama's secondary is still pretty damn good and they have held their two opponents to a 47.1% completion rate in the first two games on 5.1 yards per pass attempt. Casey Dick made a lot of mistakes under pressure last season and if Alabama comes after him or really shuts down McFadden like I think they will, Dick is in for one hell of a long night. The offensive line is too weak to protect him and I think the Crimson Tide are going to have tons of success if they come at him hard and force him into mistakes. Dick will however have his fair share of chances to make plays because Alabama main focus in this one will be shutting down the running threat of McFadden. If you do that against Arkansas, you win a lot of ball games.
The Alabama Crimson Tide are wearing brand new SEC life jackets this season with the arrival of superstar coach Nick Saban via the Miami Dolphins and LSU Tigers in recent year. Not only does Saban brings much needed presence of POWER to this program but Saban also brings this program some brains that Mike Shula just didn't have. Alabama is already off two a 2-0 start with a 1-0 ATS record and there is no doubt in my mind that Saban is going to be ready for Houston Nutt and his guys. Under the coaching of Mike Shula, Alabama went a pathetic 2-10 ATS the last two season as a home favorite. Believe me when I say that that is not happening this season, not with Saban at the helms. What I find encouraging about last year's 24-23 double overtime loss to Arkanas is that 14 starters return for Alabama so the revenge factor is going to be huge and now the Tide is at home in Bryant-Denny Stadium so that should also have a pretty big impact on the outcome of the game. A lot of guys played well in Arkansas last year but ended up on the losing side of things anyways. Alabama comes into this game averaging a whopping 38.0 points per game so far this season and they have done it on 474.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.2 yards per play. Arkansas' defense looked shaddy at best in their opener against Troy as they allowed 351.0 total yards of offense for 4.7 yards per play. On the ground, RB's Terry Grant and Glen Coffee have been tearing it up as they have led the team to 267.0 rushing yards per game on 5.8 yards per carry this season but Arkansas' defensive line is a lot better than the D-Line that allowed Troy to run all over them for 163.0 rushing yards and 5.6 yards per carry in thier opening game. Saban is smart...he knows that Arkansas will expect the run so he will cue QB John Parker Wilson, who was 16 for 20 with 3 touchdowns last year in the loss to Arkansas. Parker Wilson has been so-so in his first two games completing 58.5% of his passes for 341.0 passing yards, 6.4 yards per pass attempt with no touchdowns and one interception. That should all change in this one. I think Parker can exploit this Arkansas defense, despite them shutting down Troy and allowing only 4.1 yards per pass attempt. Alabama's running attack is too good for Arkanas to ignore and once they figure that the Tide have not one, but two guys who can really make some noise on the ground, they are going to leave things open for Parker Wilson and the offense to put the game away with long time killing drives. Alabama scored only 22.9 points per game with 9 starters back on offense last season but those were nine starters under Shula. This year the nine starters are under Saban and I think Alabama can make Arkansas look silly in this one.
I think the fact that Alabama is two games deep in their season under Nick Saban is a big time deal when you consider that Arkansas has only played the one game so far and they return only 12 starters. So basically guys are spending time on the practice field and missing out on crucial experience and Alabama is going to come into this game one step ahead of the Razorbacks. Since 1999, these two teams have met in this stadium four times and in three of those four times, Alabama won by 7 or more points. They beat Arkansas 35-28 in 1999, they beat them 31-10 in 2001, they lost 34-31 in double overtime to them in 2003 and they beat them 24-13 in 2005. With neither team bringing back much experience on defense, you have to go with the team you think can do more damage on offense and that team will always be a Saban team over a Houston Nutt team. The Crimson Tide allowed 172 rushing yards against Arkansas last year on the road but this year they can concentrate on shutting McFadden down and forcing the Razorbacks to beat them through the air...something they can't do. I am calling for John Parker Wilson to throw for at least 275+ yards in this one.
PS2 Simulation Result: Alabama 34, Arkansas 7
Boston College Eagles +6.5 (5 Units)
The Boston College Eagles have now made me some cash in the first two weeks of this season and although it would be tough to believe they can continue to cover games the way they have, I don't think I can go against this very underrated team right now. I saw a bunch of experts picking this team to finish almost dead last in the ACC Atlantic this season and boy have they come out of the gates proved some people wrong by going 2-0 ATS and beating both the defending champs Wake Forest 38-28 but by also taking care of their old coach Tom O'Brien and his new bed buddies at NC State by a score of 37-17. Impressive? Yes...but before we get too excited about Jeff Jagodzinski unbeaten record as a head coach, look no further than this big game against division rival Georgia Tech. What I like the most about Boston College is that they are 19-8 straight up in their last 27 games away from home and they are 6-1 ATS the last three seasons as road underdogs (albeit under Tom O'Brien). The Eagles have won their last four road openers but have not had much success in the past against Georgia Tech but they have not played against each other in almost 10 years. Boston College comes into this game averaging 37.5 points per game and they have done that by averaging 416.0 total yards of offense on 5.5 yards per play and great time of possession. Georgia Tech's defense is going to be their toughest test yet as they have allowed only 8.5 points per game in their first two games on an impressive 181.0 total yards of offense and 3.0 yards per play. However, that was against I-AA Samford and I-AA...oops I-A Notre Dame. Boston College has had success running the ball this season averaging 142.5 rushing yards per game with 4.4 yards per carry but they can forget about running much today. Georgia Tech has allowed only 38.5 rushing yards per game on 1.1 yards per carry and have one of the top defensive lines in the ACC Conference. In the air, QB Matt Ryan has not been all that impressive with his 54.7% pass completion rate, 548 yards passing, 6 touchdowns, 3 interceptions and 6.4 yards per pass attempt. However, he should have no problems making a few big plays against a secondary that allowed their two weak opponents to complete 58.8% of their passes this season for 5.6 yards per pass attempt and no interceptions. Ryan is a lot better than what he has shown this season and I think he can pass for another 250-300 yards in this game. Well he's gonna have to because Georgia Tech is too good against the run and that's not a big problem because the Eagles love to throw the ball. As long as he stay away from too many mistakes, Boston College should keep this one close.
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets were impressive in their debut against Notre Dame (doesn't look like much now does it?) and they were equally impressive in their 69-14 blowout win over I-AA Samford last week in Atlanta. So now the real fun begins as they open ACC divisional play and I honestly think they might be a few steps behind Boston College who have already played two in-conference games. This is the most experienced team Chan Gailey has had since 2001 and I don't doubt they will finish with a winning record as they always have under Gailey but this is not an easy game. The Yellow Jackets are are only 9-10 ATS as home favorites under Chan Gailey which is not very impressive and not very encouraging when you're looking for that big blowout win. This is the first time these two schools meet as ACC Conference opponents and I have to hand it to Georgia Tech, they have done a good job in home games against ACC Conference opponents. While Boston College only has Army to worry about next week, Georgia Tech jumps right back into ACC Conference play in Virginia and then back home for Clemson and then on the road to Maryland and Miami. So the look ahead is possible but not a big deal. The Yellow Jackets come into this game averaging a whopping 51.0 points per game this season and they have done that on 441.5 total yards of offense and 6.6 yards per play which is impressive but the level of competiton has not been prime. Boston College has allowed only 22.5 points per game this season on 386.5 total yards of offense and 4.8 yards per play which is really good considering the opponents they have faced. On the ground, RB Tashard Choice has led this team to 323.5 rushing yards per game on 6.7 yards per carry for the team but there is no way the Jackets can run the ball that much against a very solid Boston College linebacking crew that has held opponents to 28.5 rushing yards per game and 1.2 yards per carry. I think Choice can run for 100+ yards in this game but they will be 'grind-it-out' kinda yards that won't come easy or by the home run category. In the air, QB Taylor Bennett has been pretty good completing 59.4% of his passes for 206 yards, 6.4 yards per pass attempt but no touchdowns. With Boston College having better run defense than the teams they have seen, expect Georgia Tech to throw a lot more in this one against a Boston College defense that has allowed opponents to complete 64.9% of their passes for 6.3 yards per pass attempt. However, beware of this new Georgia Tech gameplan of passing. Bennett has not been tested in the passing game and Boston College already has 9 interceptions in only two games. Unless Choice can really rush for 150 yards and keep the ball on the ground, which I doubt, Boston College should be able to make some big plays and get the ball back in the hands of their offense.
Don't forget guys that Boston College is 6-1 ATS as a road underdog the last three seasons and that they are 2-0 ATS to kickoff the year. The key for them in this game is that they come in with already two ACC Conference games under their belts while Georgia Tech has not played against an ACC Conference opponent yet this season. I also like the fact that the Jackets have not tested their passing attack as of yet and even though Taylor Bennett can easily pass for 250+ yards (since running game won't be as effective) in this game, Boston College has proven to be of 'shark' status on defense this season with their 9 interceptions and we will almost surely see Bennett make a few mistakes here and there when finally tested to throw the ball. With the loss of guys like WR Calvin Johnson and Chris Dunlap, the options are very limited for Bennett and I think he has a shaddy game. Boston College has always been good away from home and they have made me cash both weeks this season so why not press my luck one more time with them. Should be a great game decided by a late field goal.
PS2 Simulation Result: Georgia Tech 20, Boston College 17
Southern California Trojans -9.5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
I'm a big time fan of the USC Trojans program, of Pete Carroll and of several players that have played at this University. However, this is by no means a home play for me because I rarely take this team when they are favored by more than a few points (which is always) because it's just not worth it. Well coming off a mediocre performance two weeks ago against Idaho in a 38-10 win but ATS loss as -49 point favorites, I think Pete Carroll has spent the last two weeks figuring out what this team can do to keep all their number one ranking points. LSU is quickly moving in on the Trojans and quickly trying to takeover the number one spot the minute the Trojans make a mistake. So don't think for one second that Pete Carroll is taking it easy on anyone in this game. You guys surely remember what happened last year when USC spanked Nebraska 28-10 at home as -17 point favorites. I also recall the last few times USC went on the road out of conference. Yup...a 50-14 win over Arkansas in 2006, a 34-31 win over Notre Dame in 2005, a 63-17 win over Hawaii in 2005, a 24-13 win over Virginia Tech in 2004, a 42-10 win over BYU in 2004, a 23-0 win over Auburn in 2003, a 45-14 win over Notre Dame in 2003, a 40-3 win over Colorado in 2002 and the one loss to Kansas State. So in those eight non-conference away wins since 2001, USC is 6-2 ATS. The Trojans come into this game off the 38 point performance against Idaho where they had 420.0 total yards of offense on 5.5 yards per play. Nebraska has done a good job defensively so far allowing 13.5 points per game on only 280.0 total yards of offense and 4.4 yards per play. Well that was against Nevada and Wake Forest (with backup QB) and this is USC...the number one team in the Nation. On the ground, USC has a plethora of RB's who can hit the home run ball as they combined for 214.0 rushing yards in their first game on 5.0 yards per carry. Nebraska has one othe weakest defensive lines in the Big 12 and USC is gonna trash them on the ground tonight. The Huskers have allowed 157.0 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry against two mediocre running opponents. USC is going to unload on them big time. In the air, QB John David Booty has done his job and he is up against a Nebraska defense that has been very good allowing opponents to complete only 41.2% of their passes for 4.8 yards per pass attempt and 3 interceptions on the year. However, this game won't be about passing the ball for the Trojans. They will have so much success running for chunks of yards on the ground that the passing game will take care of itself and Booty will certainly run some play action and connect with WR Fred Davis on a long bomb. Don't get too excited guys but Nebraska just can't keep up with USC's powerful offense. Not on National TV.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers and their fans can be pretty damn excited about starting the season 2-0 (1-1 ATS) but did you guys know that you just played against two quarterbacks making their virtual first college football starts ever? You easily beat Nevada and QB Nick Graziano (who had played behind Jeff Rowe but not done much) and you had problems beating Wake Forest and their backup QB Brett Hodges who had thrown 2 pass attempts before the season started. So now you guys have to face the best team in the Country with the front-runner QB for the Heisman Trophy and you think you can cover 10 points as a home underdog? Wow...gut check time boys. Nebraska is 3-0 ATS under Bill Callahan as home underdogs in Lincoln but was against Missouri, Texas and Texas Tech (all from the Big 12). Nebraska has never won against USC but they have beat some other teams from the PAC 10. I also want to know how Nebraska backers expect to win/cover this game with only 11 starters back from last season and a defense that brings back only 5 starters? That's pretty much betting suicide against a coach like Pete Carroll who will at times make Callahan look like an ass clown. The Huskers come into this game averaging 36.0 points per game this season on 498.5 total yards of offense and 5.8 yards per play. USC took it easy on Idaho in their first game and allowed 10 points on 253.0 total yards of offense and 3.8 yards per play. Nebraska loves to run the ball with RB Marlon Lucky who has led the team to 263.5 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry. NOT HAPPENING IN THIS GAME. As a matter of fact, I don't see Nebraska breaking the 50 yard rushing mark here against a USC defense that allowed only 3.1 yards per carry against Idaho but that has the best Defensive Line, Linebacking corps and secondary in the PAC 10 and possibly in the Nation. Nothing is going to work for Lucky today. That means QB Sam Keller can come in and make more stupid mistakes. Keller has completed only 57.6% of his passes for 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. USC's secondary is downright nasty but Keller will have some success because all Nebraska can do in this game is throw the ball and play from behind. The Trojans allowed only 4.4 yards per pass attempt in their first game but like I said, Keller (who will have the ball more than he can imagine after all the times USC scores) will pass for 300+ yards but he will also be under pressure all night and making mistakes once again.
Nebraska cannot stop the run and there is no way they can stop USC's running attack that has five players with 5+ carries in their opening game. CJ Gable is averaging 8.5 yards per carry (8 carries), Stafon Johnson is averaging 5.3 yards per carry (12 carries) and has 2 touchdowns, Desmond Reed is averaging 7.2 yards per carry (5 carries), Joe Mcknight is averaging 4.3 yards per carry (6 carries). Watch out...this baby could be lights out by the time some of you Nebraska loving clowns have time to grab that first piece of corn to shove up your asses. Pete Carroll has had two weeks to prepare for this game and he brings his crew to Lincoln with the intention of embarassing Nebraska on National TV and re-affirming his teams spot at the top of the rankings polls. USC is the kind of team that almost always excels in games like this one and this should be no different. There is no doubt Nebraska can also make some noise with a few big plays but in the end their are badly outmatched at almost every position in this game and they don't return enough players to have a clue what to do against the USC onslaught. USC will dominate but Nebraska will make it look closer than it is with some late touchdowns in garbage time.
PS2 Simulation Result: USC 37, Nebraska 21
Florida State Seminoles -4.5 (10 Units)
I swore a few weeks ago I would probably never bet on Florida State again for the next few years but for some reason I have decided to once agains trust them in this type of matchup. The Noles are not off to the best of starts after losing their opener against Clemson as -3.5 point favorites on the road and then struggling badly against UAB for an entire half as -36 point favorites before winning 34-24. So they are 0-2 ATS and I don't know that many people will even bother betting on this team anymore which can only be good news for us. The Seminoles finally got things going on offense against UAB but it took a bit too much time and will have to happen a lot faster in this game if they want to earn the blowout win. This is the first time Florida State makes a trip to Boulder, Colorad but at least we know that they have had success in the past against Big 12 opponents as they are 29-13 all time versus this conference. The Noles have the week off next week so this is the big game they want to win. They play against Alabama, NC State, Wake Forest and Miami right out of the break and seeing how those are all winnable games, I think Florida State needs a good showing here. The Seminoles come into the game averaging 26.0 points per game on 388.0 total yards of offense and 5.4 yards per play. That's not that good but Colorado has allowed 30.5 points per game this season and they did that on 396.0 total yards of offense and 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, RB Antone Smith (despite the minor concussion last week) should have another big game. He has led this team to 151.0 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry. Colorado has a very good defensive line but once you get into the secondary on a run, it's blastoff time. Expect Smith to take a few big ones close to the house. In the air, QB Drew Weatheford is still the guy and has completed 55.7% of his passes for 474 yards, 6.9 yards per pass attempt and 4 touchdowns. Not bad. He should have another good game in this one against a Colorado secondary that is weak as balls and allowed opponents to complete 60.9% of their passes this season for 7.8 yards per pass attempt. WR's De'Cody I love sex and Greg Carr will badly outrun and outjump these Colorado DB's and Weatheford could have one of his best games in a very long time. For once the Florida State offense will do enough to keep the defense fresh and play the way they are supposed to play.
The Colorado Buffaloes are off to a so-so start with their 1-1 record (1-1 ATS) and I'm not too sure what to think of Dan Hawkins and the way he runs this team. One offense he has 9 returning starters and he has looked pretty good in one game but crappy in the other and on defense he has only 6 starters returning and they have looked like complete garbage in both games. So that could prove to be a big problem against a Florida State team looking for any opponent to embarass to put their own name back in the ACC Title game talks and Colorado might just be that opponent. Colorado used to be one of those teams that would never lose their home opener as they are 16-3 in their last 19 home openers at Foldom Field but they lost here in their first game in 2006 against Montana State (I-AA) so putting another loss past them is nothing big. The Buffaloes were 1-1 ATS as a home underdog last season, losing by 18 to Arizona State and beating Texas Tech by 24. They lost 4 games at home in 2006 and those games lost were by 9 points against Montana State, 18 points against Arizona State, 3 points against Baylor (as favorites though) and by 13 points against Kansas State. So if you like Colorado to cover, consider these numbers please. The Buffaloes come into the game averaging 22.5 points per game and they have done that on only 268.0 total yards of offense and only 4.1 yards per play (could be the weakest offense Florida State has faced all year). The Seminoles have yet to flex their defensive muscles as they have allowed 24.0 points per game on 318.5 total yards of offense and 4.9 yards per play. They can do better. The problem with Colorado is that they have offense. On the ground they have averaged only 85.0 rushing yards on 3.1 yards per carry and won't get much more than that against a Florida State defense that has allowed only 3.6 yards per carry on the season at a 125.5 yards clip per game. In the air, QB Cody Hawkins is head coach daddy's little boy and he has completed only 44.6% of his passes for 356 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions and 4.8 yards per pass attempt. Florida State should have no problems pressuring him all night as Hawkins has one of the worst offensive lines and nobody to throw to. The Seminoles have allowed only 51.7% of passes to be completed against them this season for only 6.4 yards per pass attempt. I think it's gonna be turnovers mania for the Buffaloes in this game and Myron Rolle will probably pick Hawkins a few times. Colorado is absolutely no match for a team like Florida State.
The bottom line here is that a middle of the pack team like Colorado (Big 12) cannot compete with one of the most reputable programs of the last 10 years or so. We saw it in 2003 when Florida State blew the socks off Colorado at home in a 47-7 romp. We won't be seeing that kind of blowout tonight but we do know that the Seminoles defense is going to have to carry this team in games like this and tonight they will. Colorado's offense is as putrid as it gets and Im really not impressed with Hawkins son as the QB. I think the Seminoles defense is going to force a bunch of turnovers in this game and they will get their offense good field position all game and allow the floodgates to bust open right from the getgo. Antone Smith is not 100% with his concussion but several guys are waiting to step in (Marcus Sims) and Bobby Bowden needs this game before heading into a very tough part of their yearly schedule. The Noles have not looked good this season and a lot of people have given up on them but the mismatch here is too extreme and I can't believe the line is so terrible.
PS2 Simulation Result: Florida State 41, Colorado 0
WEEKLY RECAP
Maryland +16
Troy +10
Pittsburgh +11
Central Michigan +21
Tennessee +7
Michigan -7.5
Ohio State -4
Texas -18.5
Alabama -3
Boston College +6.5
Southern California -9.5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Florida State -4.5
Good Luck to all!
