MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 CFB Week 2 Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)
2006 CFB Record: 8-11 ATS (-8.50 Units)
2006 CFB ATS Record: 8-11 ATS (-8.50)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
Alright well some of you may have noticed by now but in case you haven't, I have spent the last 2-3 hours re-thinking my entire betting strategy on both College and NFL Football and went back a few years to see what it was that made me such a succesful capper. The Dolphins and Beavers both losing on ATS made me think that I am doing something wrong and it was time for a change. I hedged all my remaining bets for the weekend and have come up with new wagers that should hit the cash money. I apologize for any confusion, my record remains the same and let's sweep the board here.
-----------------------------------------
Friday, September 8
Pittsburgh-Cincinnati 'Over' 42.5 (1 Unit)
How interesting that my first play under my new (well old) capping strategy be a good old total. This is my first total play of the year and after extensively capping this game to the dot, I don't see how the total was published as low to start off and why the oddsmakers in Vegas believe the teams will have problems scoring. The Pitt Panthers are coming off a solid debut as they crushed Virginia 38-13 in their opener and they carry quite the offensive momentum and swagger coming into this thing. In that game against Virginia, the Panthers averaged a whopping 7.1 yards per play on 390 total yards of offense and they are going up against a Cincinnati defense that is returning 10 starters and that looked so-so in their opener. The Bearcats defense did manage to allow 250.0 total yards of offense against I-AA Eastern Kentucky last weekend and that can't be a good sign heading to a game against Pitt. The defense allowed 3.9 yards per play which could spell trouble in this game. On the ground, RB Levon Stephens-Howling led the way but the Panthers did not look to sharp, in fact they looked like a team working two new running backs which they were. The averaged only 3.2 yards per carry but that is good news because the Bearcats are stronger against the run this season and allowed only 2.4 yards per carry to Eastern Kentucky. In the air, QB Tyler Palko looked outstanding passing for 283 yards and three touchdowns while keeping his offense as balanced as possible. He comepleted 77.3% of his passes for a whopping 12.9 yards per pass attempt which should work against a Cincinnati defense that allowed 5.4 yards per pass attempt against a Division I-AA school. The Panthers had nine different receivers catch a pass against Virginia and in order to beat a more experienced Cincinnati defense, the Panthers will have to be versatile and give Palko enough protection to find the deep man when it most matters. The Panthers don't have to score too many points in this one for it to go OVER and I think they do just enough to get this thing to go. The last meeting between these teams was last season where they combined for 58 total points.
The Cincinnati Bearcats are coming off a season opening confidence boosting win over Eastern Kentucky as they pitched their first shutout in 11 years and won the game 31-0. However, keep in mind that this defense did allow 31.4 points per game last season and although they did look good early on, I don't know how prepared they are going to be for Pittsburgh's attack plan. What I do know however is that Cincinnati will improve on their 17.5 points per game of offense in 2005 and it should start tonight where Pittsburgh is vulnerable on the road. The Bearcats had 411.0 total yards of offense in their opener for 5.9 yards per play. Pittsburgh's defense did play well against Virginia but this is a short week and I don't know how they are going to react to that since they have not done well on short rest in the past under Wandstedt. Three diffenret Cincinnati running back got at least 10 carries last game and although Glatthar is the lead back on this team, their depth could come in handy in games like this. The Bearcats rushed for 129.0 yards on 3.6 yards per carry and are going up against a very good Pittsburgh defense that allowed only 56.0 rushing yards last week against the Cavaliers. However, that was in part because Virginia had to play from behind all the time, something Cincinnati might not have to do. In the air, QB's Dan Grutza and Nick Devila split the duties and both looked good doing it. As a unit, the Bearcats averaged 8.3 yards per pass attempt and are going up against a Pittsburgh defense that doesn't bring much pressure but that did hold Virginia to 4.3 yards per pass attempt. Let's just say that Eastern Kentucky and Virginia offenses were rusty last week and that is the reason that these two teams got so many interceptions. This game doesn't have to be high scoring for the OVER to hit but I see Cincinnati have some success on offense and the Panthers will score their fair share of points as well. What you have to understand about Mark Dantonio and his offense is that they react well to good games and usually come out flying after having played a great game against Eastern Kentucky. Cincinnati has a lot of momentum right now. This one goes OVER late in the fourth quarter.
Trend of the Game: The OVER is 9-0-1 in Cincinnati's last 10 games when passing for 280+ yards the game before.
Pittsburgh 30, Cincinnati 20
Saturday, September 9
Akron-NC State 'Under' 40.5 (1 Unit)
I had made a huge ass writeup for this play sometime last weekend but for whateve reason I got rid of it and didn't bother posting the information I had already dug up. I am not a fan of totals plays but I think it's the only way to get into a groove and start developping a feel for how some of these teams really work. Let's start to talk about Akron in this game because Akron is going to know what it's like to play in Raleigh once this is all said and done and let me tell you that the reviews will be anything but good. Akron comes into this game off their very respectable 34-16 loss to Penn State in Penn last week but that doesn't change the way I see this game. Before I go any further, the oddsmakers are giving the total some respect here because Akron has eight starters back on offense. However, what they do not realize is that gone from last year's team are RB Brett Biggs (1230 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns), WR Domenik Hixon (1210 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns) and WR Jason Montgomery (702 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns). Biggs was also the third leading receiver and losing these three guys are going to make QB Luke Getsy pretty much useless to being the year. The Zips averaged only 2.9 yards per play against a very good Penn State defense while NC State managed to hold Appalachian State to a measly 2.5 yards per play in their opener. On the ground, the Zips had problems, rushing for only 33 yards on 34 carries and that was against a great defensive front. I know NC State does not have their usual bad ass defense and they return only five starters on defense but NC State is NC State at home and the Wolfpack defense has been nearly unbeatable at home over the years. Getsy was sacked five times against Penn State and we will see the Wolfpack come out with tons of pressure and blitz packages to produce much of what Penn State did last week. The NC State secondary is solid and they should have a few picks in this game. Akron lost too many weapons on offense to do well in their second straight road game and I wouldn't be surprised to see them score only three points.
The NC State Wolfpack have never been known for their offensive ways but you would think against a team like I-AA Appalachian State last week, the Pack would have come out guns blazing and blown those guys out. Well they didn't. They won that game 23-10 and looked pretty pathetic doing so. In that game, the Pack had only 242.0 total yards of offense on 4.2 yards per play and the message was sent out early by coach Amato and that message clearly said that NC State will not try to score a lot of points this year. They will try to hold opponents to under 10 points in each of their games and hope the offense can do enough to keep them in the games. It sounds ridiculous but Amato is willing to try anyhthing at this point. Akron's defense was impressive last week, allowing only 282.0 total yards of offense against the Penn State Nittany Lions. What you have to understand about NC State is that Amato doesn't trust QB Marcus Stone and it showed in the Appalachian State game when he let him throw the ball only 13 times. The Akron Zips have one of the Nation's top secondaries believe it or not and if it comes down to it, Amato will have Stone throw the ball less than 10 times and the Wolfpack will see if they can win with the running game. Bad move. I say that because although RB Andre Brown is stud, he is up against an Akron run defense that impressed last week and held Penn State to 76.0 rushing yards on 2.8 yards per carry while NC State rushed for almost 250 yards on 4.7 yards per carry. Stone is not a reliable QB and if the Woldpack want to air the ball out, they will have to do it against some of the top corners in the MAC. NC State fumbled the ball three times in their game against Appalachian State (are you serious) and lost all three fumbles while they were at it. Surprisingly enough, Akron's defense forced two PSU fumbles last week and ended recovering both and scoring some points off turnovers. Look for NC State to run the ball as much as they can until their passing game gets them into trouble and they turn the ball over via the punt. NC State is the kind of team that comes out playing the way they did the previous week of play and if that stays true, we should see some serious struggles on the part of Amato's guys. This should be one of the most boring games on the card today but as long as the points are not scored, I am a happy camper.
Trend of the Game: The UNDER is 13-0 in NC State's last 13 games where they passed for 170 yards or less the week before.
NC State 13, Akron 3
Virginia Tech Hokies -12.5 (3 Units)
I know it looks to good to be true and I know a high percentage of Vegas and offshore bettors are going to be on the Hokies in this one but the public money does not bother me because I have big time confidence that the Hokies are the way to go in this one. Virginia Tech is coming off a 38-0 confidence boosting win over Northeastern on Saturday and they now face their first real road test of the season. Can you imagine what the line would be like had this game been played with the starters from the 2005 version of Virginia Tech? The Hokies look very complete on offense against Northeastern as they amassed 382.0 total yards of offense in a semi-effort on a whopping 7.1 yards per play. North Carolina's defense which won't come anywhere near to the NC defense of last year, allowed Rutgers to gain 362.0 yards of offense on a large 5.9 yards per play. The Hokies, if they follow the gameplan, should be able to demolish the Tar Heels defense. On the ground, RB Bradon Ore begun what could be a great career here by rushing for 54 yards and a touchdown and you have to remember that he rushed for almost 600 yards last season and ran for 147 against Marshall. Well Merry Christmas to the Hokies rushing attack in this one because they averaged 4.1 yards per carry in the opener and now get to face a North Carolina defensive line that is easily pushed over and that allowed Rutgers to rush for 217,0 yards on a whopping 5.9 yards per carry. I expect Ore, who has tremendous speed, to have a huge game along with George Bell who is the big power runner inside the 5-10 yard line of opposing defenses. QB Sean Glenno might be a sophomore but he redshirted the 2005 season and looked outstanding in the games he played in the 2004 season. Gleason had some huge numbers in his first ever start last week, completing 15 of 18 passes for three touchdowns and one interception (first of his career). The Hokies averaged 10.0 yards per pass attempt last week and believe it or not, the Tar Heels allowed 7.3 yards per pass attempt against Rutgers and have a very undersized secondary coming into this game. 10 different VTech players caught a pass last week and with the options so diverse on offense, the Hokies might tee off for some 50 points in this game. There isn't much the Tar Heels can do as they are back to their old defensive ways and that includes allowing 30 points per game.
The North Carolina Tar Heels had some high hopes coming into this season but can someone tell me why? I mean this is the same North Carolina team that went 5-6 last season and...oh I guess there's our answer. The 5-6 was impressive but it wasn't enough for the fans who wanted Bowl Eligibility for the first time since 2004. The Tar Heels came out looking flat against Rutgers as their defense was pathetic and they lost the game 21-16 at home. In that game North Carolina managed to get an impressive 403 total yards of offense on 5.9 yards per play but my question is how the hell do you get held to only 16 points on that many yards? The answer is Joe Dailey. Anyways. On the ground, the Tar Heels tore it up against a pathetic Ruters run defense but you won't see any of that today. North Carolina rushed for 169.0 yards in that game on 5.3 yards per carry but they run into a Virginia Tech defense that allowed only 93.0 rushing yards per game last season and that got off to a good start this year by allowing only 76.0 rushing yards against Northeastern on 2.7 yards per carry. QB and Nebraska transfer Joe Dailey is once against the starter this week and I dont know what to say. He was picked off twice in his Tar Heels debut and he pretty much lost the game for the Heels. The Hokies are going to come at Dailey with some extreme pressure and some big time blitz packages which should force Dailey into more mistakes and more bad plays. Sure he did play well at times, but the Hokies have some of the best shut down Corners in the NCAA and something tells me that Roland Minor is going to knock someone out in this one. The Hokies had two picks against Northeasten last week and unless North Carolina can come up with something special, this should definitely be a blowout for the ages and a blowout that emerges some new young superstars on this very underrated Frank Beamer team. When the Heels decided they want to run the ball in this game, I fully expect the Hokies to bring in some help from the secondary and ensure that the Heels don't get any big yardage plays up the middle where they had success against Rutgers last week. The keys though will be to pressure Dailey as much as the Hokies can and make sure WR Brooks Foster is not left alone on the deep ball. Sounds easy to me, let's do this.
Trend of the Game: Virginia tech is 7-2 ATS in their last nine ACC road games.
Virginia Tech 42, North Carolina 10
Wyoming Cowboys +9 (5 Units)
What could I be thinking picking a Moutain West team to come into an ACC built house and possibly knock the ML right off the Virginia Cavaliers? Sure...why not? Scott Stadium is going to be rumbling for this game but will it be rumbling for the right reasons? Only time will tell. We kick things off on this one by looking at what Wyoming did in their season opener last week. Well, they crushed Utah State 38-7 as 11.5 point favorites which was quite possibly the most impressive ATS win of the week in all of football and quite possibly the sweetest win Joe Glenn has had since he got here about four years ago. The Cowboys needed momentum coming into this game and since they now know they have a shot at the straight up win, the Boise State game next week is temporarily out of their minds and on hold mode. The Cowboys had 460 yards of total offense against Utah State as they had some nice balance amassing 5.9 yards per play in that game. Don't be shocked if they rock the house again this week against a Virginia defense that allowed 7.1 yards per play last week against Pittsburgh and who might just do the same in this game. The Cowboys rushed for 221.0 yards last game on 4.3 yards per carry and even though the Cavaliers had success stopping the Pittsburgh run, there wasn't much of a Pittsburgh run to speak about. This is the quickest, youngest and most talented backfield Wyoming has ever had and RB Wynel Seldon should have a good enough game to setup the Wyoming passing attack. QB Jacob Doss knows this system very well and he was a superstar High School player back in Kentucky. Doss is the starter again today and I expect a huge game from his ass well. The Cowboys averaged 8.9 yards per pass attempt in the Utah State game for 239.0 total passing yards. Virginia has some serious personel issues in their secondary and they allowed an incredible 12.9 yards per pass attempt against Pittsburgh and I am scared to think what this well coached Wyoming team might do. Seldon is going to compliment the air attack in this game because the Cavaliers have to respect his gamebreaking speed while at the same time have to watch out for him getting open for that 15 yard pass up the middle. This is another defensive nightmare for Virginia and although they will greatly improve on last week's putrid performance, I see Wyoming keeping this game very close and possibly even pulling off the shocker and winning on the MoneyLine. Wyoming has to be careful with fumbles though because they lost the ball twice on three fumbles last week and the Cavs might be a little more agressive in this game.
The Virginia Cavaliers knew they were in for a type of rebuilding season but they had no idea that rebuilding meant being manhandled by a Pittsburgh Panthers team that does not usually score too many points. As I mentione before, Scott Stadium might be a little rocking tonight but it won't be for the right reasons as their Cavaliers are going to struggle badly against a much weaker team on paper. Or are they? Virginia is coming off that embarassing loss to the Panthers and Al Groh has already warned his guys that nobodies position is safe this week and that he won't hesitate to use the bakcup unit if he has to. In the Pittsburgh game the Cavaliers managed only 211.0 total yards of offense on only 3.6 yards per play and they are going up against a Wyoming defense that had an easy time with the Utah State offense holding them to seven points on 129.0 total yards of offense for 2.7 yards per play. On the ground, the Cavaliers were just horrendous as Jason Snelling was the featured back and his fat ass had problems penetrating a tough Panthers defense. They rushed for only 52.0 total yards on only 2.5 yards per play. Wyoming's run defense was tested to the tune of 26 carries last week and they passed the mini test by holding the Aggies to 2.1 yards per carry for 55 yards. Now the Cavaliers do have quite the arsneal of WR's that can make big plays and if they score a lot of points in this game it will be because of those receivers. However, QB Chris Olsen was simply horrendous last week completing only 50% of his passes for 133 yards and one interception. We might see a lot more of Kevin McCabe if things don't work for Olsen early. Olsen and company passed for only 4.2 yards per pass attempt last week while the Wyoming secondary held the Aggies to 3.4 yards per pass attempt. The real test comes this week for Wyoming's defense which was a concern before the season even started. The key for this defense will be to force Olsen to make big plays because we have yet to ever see this guy make a big play and he is still without a touchdown pass in his career at Virginia. Olsen should have a much better game now that he is comfortable at home but the Wyoming Cowboys are an underrated team that are going to keep games close this year.
Trend of the Game: Virginia is 5-8 ATS in Home Openers since 1991.
Wyoming 24, Virginia 21
UNLV Rebels +14 (2 Units)
What the hell could I be thinking backing two Moutain West teams on the road in the same week against some big name schools? I don't quite know myself but I do know that UNLV is a virtual unkown in the world of college football betting and I fully expect to cash on these guys more than once this year as they go around shocking opposing teams. Mike Sanford did not have the players he wanted last season on this team and the Rebels went 2-9. However, they spend to off-season and the better part of last season picking out some of the best JUCO players in the Nation and having them sign letters of commitment to join the program. In come the transfers and what a difference it made in the Rebels opener last week as they blew Idaho State out of the sky to the tune of 54-10 and they look to make another big statement by taking care of business against a very susceptible Iowa State team. The Rebels amassed an incredible 506.0 total yards of offense last week against Idaho State and that was on 6.4 yards per play. I know it's only a I-AA team but still, it means something to pull that off. Iowa State was less than impressive in their opener against Toledo as they allowed 5.4 yards per play against a Toledo offense playing with a new quarterback. On the ground, the Rebels got a big game from RB Eric Jackson who is in his final season and is looking to prove something to the UNLV nation. The Rebels rushed for 174.0 yards on 5.4 yards per carry last week but running against Iowa State is not easy and I don't see them having much success trying. Instead, the honus will be on QB Rocky Hinds (who is a USC transfer and was highly touted in High Scool) to control this game and keep things close with the Cyclones. Hinds is working in this brand new spread offense that fits some of these Rebels players very nicely. WR Ryan Wolfe was outstanding in his debut as he caught a touchdown pass and had 160 receiving yards. The Rebels could have an easy time throwing the ball all over this Cyclones defense that is allowing 7.5 yards per pass attempt and doesn't seem to have the staff to handle a spread offense. The key for the UNLV offense will be to continue looking downfield for the big yardage passsing plays because Iowa State were exposed for the frauds that they are last week and Hinds won't let another performance like that slide. I see a shootout in this game and will go as far as saying that the Rebels will at one point have the lead in this game before losing in the end. The secret weapons on the Rebels offense are the young WR's and this kid Aaron Straiten is apparently a ticking time bomb ready to explode for a huge game. Let's see it right now.
The Iowa State Cyclones cost me some cash last week when they failed to put away the Toledo Rockets when they had the chance and it basically came back to bite them as they had to fight hard to avoid a loss. The Cyclones won that game in triple overtime but the game took an emotional toll on this team and I don't know if the Cyclones are going to give UNLV enough respect in this game. Iowa State is surely looking forward to the Iowa game next week and the Texas game the following week after that and that can't be a good sign. Why should they go all out and kill themselves here when they have the two biggest games on their schedule coming up in the next few weeks? They won't. In their game against Toledo, the Cyclones went for 393.0 total yards of offense against a decent Toledo defense but they did average 5.9 yards per play which is quite impressive. UNLV needs to improve their defense fast because this game could get out of hand early if they don't. This defense allowed 5.3 yards per play against Idaho State last week and not many starters are back for the 2006 season. On the ground, the Cyclones were quite ineffective as they rushed for only 159.0 total yards on 3.9 yards per carry. The real test is today for this UNLV improved rush defense as they allowed only 62.0 rushing yards last week and have some new transfers on defense that could make an immediate impact on this game. In the air, Iowa State QB Bret Meyer was pretty damn good last week but the Cyclones failed to convert several third down chances and ended up shooting themselves in the foot for it. WR's Toddy Blyther and Austin Finna are dangerous options down the field. The Cyclones averaged a very good 9.0 yards per pass attempt last week against Toledo while the Rebels did not do so well with their youthful secondary as they allowed Idaho State to average 8.0 yards per pass attempt. However, DC Vic Shealy is going to pressure Meyer into mistakes in this game and the Rebels are going to utilize their very underrated LB corps (four sacks last week) who might make some big enough plays to give us the cover in this game. In what might definitely turn into a shootout, I like the Rebels to keep things close with their complex spread offense and their outstanding JUCO talents. If Iowa State even cares about this game they will win but I also see the possibility of them getting caught sleeping. Enjoy a thriller and an ATS win on the Rebels.
Trend of the Game: Iowa State is 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 40 points (yes I know about the overtime) or more the week before.
Iowa State 41, UNLV 30
Toledo Rockets -10.5 (2 Units)
This is my writeup for both a Toledo ATS cover as well as the 'Over' on the game as both should be cash money in ths one. The Toledo Rockets are coming off a very impressive start to their season as they walked into Ames, Iowa and came within inches of knocking off Iowa State on their own home turf. That would have been quite the win considering that Toledo is working in several new players and their offense was not supposed to be anywhere near what it was last year. However, the Rockets managed to amass 412.0 total yards of offense against the Cyclones last week on 5.4 yards per play. Western Michigan's defense has allowed 30+ points per game the last three seasons and I don't see a reason for 2006 to be different. This defense allowed 323.0 total yards of offense against Indiana last week on 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, the Rockets were as pathetic as everyone thought they would be without a running back threat. They managed only 45.0 rushing yards in that game on 1.7 yards per carry. However, the plan won't be to run this weekend as Western Michigan was stout against Indiana's run game and passing the ball will be all Toledo does in this game. QB Clint Cochrane was very impressive in his debut passing for 367 yards, completing 79.6% of his passes and throwing for three touchdowns. Why fix something that ain't broke right? There isn't a player on the Western Michigan team that can run with WR Steve Odom or TE Chris Hopkins and look for Cochrane to hit these two guys all night if he has to. The Rockets managed to average 7.5 yards per pass attempt against Iowa State while the Broncos defense allowed a whopping 252.0 total passing yards on 7.2 yards per pass attempt. It's tough to lay this many points on a road favorite coming off a close loss but this is going to be a mud slinging affaire and anytime a game turns into a shootout, I have to go with the Rockets because they have produced some of the most high powered passing attacks in the Country over the last 5-6 years. Things might get off to a slow start in this game but by the time the 3rd quarter is almost over, the teams will be trading touchdowns and Toledo should start pulling away and end up winning the game by 2-3 touchdowns. Toledo failed to cover all four games as away favorites last year which usually means that things get turned around the following year and Tom Amstutz is surely going to have his guys ready to fight a war for the second straight week. In their last two trips to Kalamazoo, the Rockets have a combined total of 101 points scored in those games and I know that with a different QB but Cochrane has already shown that he can toss some serious mud and I want to see it one more time this week before things cool down against Kansas next week.
The Western Michigan Broncos could very well kill my Toledo ATS cover in this game but the problem I have with the Broncos is that they lack consistency and their defense always finds a way to let games get out of hand. The Broncos are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as home underdogs and that doesn't things up too nicely for tonight's encounter with a high powered offense like Toledo. However, I was impressed with the 20 points Western Michigan was able to score against Indiana last Saturday and I expect them to come out early and a score a few touchdowns to make this game interesting. In their game against Indiana, the Broncos had only 289.0 total yards of offense for 4.4 yards per play. However, they rarely had the ball in their hands which made it difficult to score more points. Toledo's defense was less than impressive against Iowa State as they allowed 393.0 total yards, which is not bad, but it was on 5.9 yards per play which means the Broncos are going to score points in this game. On the ground is not necessairily where you want to beat the Rockets because they have a big defensive line and they allowed only 3.9 yards per carry against Iowa State which is pretty damn good. Also, if this is going to turn into a shootout, there is no time for Western Michigan to run the ball unless they have a big lead and want to keep the Rockets off the field at all times. Not happening. Here is the key to the Toledo Rockets covering this game. Western Michigan QB Ryan Cubit is out for this game with an arm injury. In comes QB Thomas Peregrin who looked like a deer in the headlights last week at times but did complete 9 of 12 passes for 51 yards and a touchdown. Peregrin has a huge arm and he can sling mud with the Rockets for about three quarters until things get really out of hand. The Broncos averaged a decent 6.4 yards per pass attempt against Indiana and they now get to face a Toledo defense that allowed a whopping 9.0 yards per pass attempt last week against Iowa State. The Rockets don't have the personel to cover speedy WR Jamarko Simmons who had a great game last week and should a few more big plays in this game. Losing Cubit is a big blow to the Broncos because in a game where things are going to quickly get out of hand and Toledo might score on every possession or every other possession, the Broncos have to be ready to exchange touchdowns. Peregrin will do a good job, but he won't be able to stay within 15 points but he will be able to bring us our over once he gets comfortable in the second half and comes up with a big yardage performance.
Trend of the Game: Toledo Head Coach Tom Astutz is 9-2-1 ATS the last four years versus Michigan based MAC Schools.
Toledo 45, Western Michigan 24
Toledo-Western Michigan 'Over' 51.5 (5 Units)
This is my writeup for both a Toledo ATS cover as well as the 'Over' on the game as both should be cash money in ths one. The Toledo Rockets are coming off a very impressive start to their season as they walked into Ames, Iowa and came within inches of knocking off Iowa State on their own home turf. That would have been quite the win considering that Toledo is working in several new players and their offense was not supposed to be anywhere near what it was last year. However, the Rockets managed to amass 412.0 total yards of offense against the Cyclones last week on 5.4 yards per play. Western Michigan's defense has allowed 30+ points per game the last three seasons and I don't see a reason for 2006 to be different. This defense allowed 323.0 total yards of offense against Indiana last week on 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, the Rockets were as pathetic as everyone thought they would be without a running back threat. They managed only 45.0 rushing yards in that game on 1.7 yards per carry. However, the plan won't be to run this weekend as Western Michigan was stout against Indiana's run game and passing the ball will be all Toledo does in this game. QB Clint Cochrane was very impressive in his debut passing for 367 yards, completing 79.6% of his passes and throwing for three touchdowns. Why fix something that ain't broke right? There isn't a player on the Western Michigan team that can run with WR Steve Odom or TE Chris Hopkins and look for Cochrane to hit these two guys all night if he has to. The Rockets managed to average 7.5 yards per pass attempt against Iowa State while the Broncos defense allowed a whopping 252.0 total passing yards on 7.2 yards per pass attempt. It's tough to lay this many points on a road favorite coming off a close loss but this is going to be a mud slinging affaire and anytime a game turns into a shootout, I have to go with the Rockets because they have produced some of the most high powered passing attacks in the Country over the last 5-6 years. Things might get off to a slow start in this game but by the time the 3rd quarter is almost over, the teams will be trading touchdowns and Toledo should start pulling away and end up winning the game by 2-3 touchdowns. Toledo failed to cover all four games as away favorites last year which usually means that things get turned around the following year and Tom Amstutz is surely going to have his guys ready to fight a war for the second straight week. In their last two trips to Kalamazoo, the Rockets have a combined total of 101 points scored in those games and I know that with a different QB but Cochrane has already shown that he can toss some serious mud and I want to see it one more time this week before things cool down against Kansas next week.
The Western Michigan Broncos could very well kill my Toledo ATS cover in this game but the problem I have with the Broncos is that they lack consistency and their defense always finds a way to let games get out of hand. The Broncos are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as home underdogs and that doesn't things up too nicely for tonight's encounter with a high powered offense like Toledo. However, I was impressed with the 20 points Western Michigan was able to score against Indiana last Saturday and I expect them to come out early and a score a few touchdowns to make this game interesting. In their game against Indiana, the Broncos had only 289.0 total yards of offense for 4.4 yards per play. However, they rarely had the ball in their hands which made it difficult to score more points. Toledo's defense was less than impressive against Iowa State as they allowed 393.0 total yards, which is not bad, but it was on 5.9 yards per play which means the Broncos are going to score points in this game. On the ground is not necessairily where you want to beat the Rockets because they have a big defensive line and they allowed only 3.9 yards per carry against Iowa State which is pretty damn good. Also, if this is going to turn into a shootout, there is no time for Western Michigan to run the ball unless they have a big lead and want to keep the Rockets off the field at all times. Not happening. Here is the key to the Toledo Rockets covering this game. Western Michigan QB Ryan Cubit is out for this game with an arm injury. In comes QB Thomas Peregrin who looked like a deer in the headlights last week at times but did complete 9 of 12 passes for 51 yards and a touchdown. Peregrin has a huge arm and he can sling mud with the Rockets for about three quarters until things get really out of hand. The Broncos averaged a decent 6.4 yards per pass attempt against Indiana and they now get to face a Toledo defense that allowed a whopping 9.0 yards per pass attempt last week against Iowa State. The Rockets don't have the personel to cover speedy WR Jamarko Simmons who had a great game last week and should a few more big plays in this game. Losing Cubit is a big blow to the Broncos because in a game where things are going to quickly get out of hand and Toledo might score on every possession or every other possession, the Broncos have to be ready to exchange touchdowns. Peregrin will do a good job, but he won't be able to stay within 15 points but he will be able to bring us our over once he gets comfortable in the second half and comes up with a big yardage performance.
Trend of the Game: The OVER is 8-1 in Western Michigan's last nine home games.
Toledo 45, Western Michigan 24
Georgia-South Carolina 'Under' 39 (3 Units)
This is probably one of my most anticipated wagers of the week now that I have revamped my capping strategy. I don't know how I missed this the first time around but this is one of those classic SEC clashes where both teams think they are engaged in a chess match and both teams are scared to make the first mistake that will surely cost them the game. The Georgia Bulldogs have always been a team that knows how to score but with only four starters back on offense, you have to expect things to go wrong at some point and I really can't lay 3.5 points on the bulldogs as road favorites. Walking into Columbia is and coming out with a win against a Steve Spurrier led team is not an easy task by any means. I know the Bulldogs are everyone's flavor of the week but mine is the UNDER. Georgia is coming off a blowout season opening win over I-AA Western Kentucky but their offense was held to only 295.0 total yards in that game on 5.7 yards per play. That kind of stuff won't work against South Carolina's defense that was stud last week against Miss State and allowed only 161.0 total yards in that game on 2.9 yards per play. On the ground, Georgia had some big running plays from RB Danny Ware but I was less tham impressed with RB Thomas Brown's 26 yards on 10 carries. The Bulldogs managed 136.0 total rushing yards on 5.0 yards per carry but the Gamecocks defense is good against the run and they allowed only 79.0 rushing yard against Miss State for only 2.4 yards per carry. I know it's only Miss State but it's a confidence booster heading into the home opener. In the air, Georgia QB JoeTereshinski is obviously the starter for the Bulldogs this year but his 7 for 17 performance against a I-AA team like Western Kentucky is alarming to say the least. The Bulldogs had only 159.0 total passing yards in that game for 6,4 yards per pass attempt. South Carolina's secondary isn't the toughest in the SEC but they follow the system and it showed against Miss State as they allowed only 3.6 yards per pass attempt on 82.0 total yards of passing. Georgia has some serious concerns with the intensity of this offense and seeing that South Carolina had five sacks against Miss State and I expect them to pressure Tereshinski in his first true road game as a Bulldog. Tereshinski knows his job is not safe at the moment and the pressure of playing well against this SC defense is going to be too much. The Bulldogs do have a lot of weapons on offense but the question remains whether or not the running game is going to have an impact on an improved defensive line. If the running game isn't working early, Tereshinski will be blitzed all night and he probably won't react well to that. Georgia is going to struggle all game but in the end, they'll score at least 10 points. In their last five games played here in Columbia, the Bulldogs average 14.8 points per game and that should be about what we see out of them today if all goes well.
The South Carolina Gamecocks...haha...I always get a shuckle out of that name, but anyways, the Gamecocks are rested and ready to get going in their home openers. You are going to see 80 000 crazy Cock fans going nuts tonight which will make it tough for Georgia to really get into a groove or even find their rythm for the first half. The noise here is going to be incredible and I look for that crowd to really help the South Carolina defense have one of it's finest games this season. The Gamecocks are coming off a 15-0 win over Mississippi State in their road opener and as impressive as that win was, it was good for the defense to get a confidence boosting game like that just to ensure that they come into this game tonight with a high level of intensity. The Cocks had a respectable 274.0 total yards of offense against Croom's guys for 4.9 yards per play which is actually pretty good against Mississippi State. Georgia allowed 193.0 total yards of offense against a I-AA team last week on 3.1 yards per play which is not bad but it's not that great. South Carolina had a lot of problems running the ball last week. However, RB Cory Boyd had a good game in the end and I look for him to be the featured back in this game. The Cocks managed only 81.0 total rushing yards in that game for only 2.8 yards per carry. That's a big problem against Georgia who have a monsterous defensive line and who held Western Kentucky to 1.9 yards per carry on 67.0 rushing yards. Something tells me that even if the Gamecocks have problems running the ball again which they will, they will stick with the run as long as the game is close hoping to control the clock and the time of possession. In the air, QB Blake Mitchell did what he had to do to win last week. However, he looked horrendous completing only 12 of 22 passes for 91 yards and one interception, something that won't fly around with the Georgia defense. Mitchell and company did pass for 7.1 yards per pass attempt but are up against a Georgia defense that is relentless on the blitz and that are going to come at Mitchell and force him into big mistakes. The Bulldogs had four sacks last week while allowing only 4.7 yards per pass attempt. The South Carolina offensive line has all sorts of issues this year and they won't be able to protect Mitchell as he got sacked four times last week and it can only get worst this week against a much better pass rushing team. That's why I expect to see a lot of running and a lot of punting in this game which should in the end benefit the UNDER bet. The Gamecocks average only 14 points per game in their last five home games against Georgia and they will be lucky to hit 14 points in this game tonight.
Trend of the Game: The UNDER is 9-0 in the last nine meetings between these two teams.
South Carolina 14, Georgia 10
New Mexico Lobos -6 (2 Units)
You can officially call it a miracle. I just bet on my third Moutain West Conference team of the week on the road and although it sounds like I'm committing colllege football wagering suicide, I think all three are going to come out winners and the Moutain West is going to make a name for themselves this week. New Mexico was the only Bowl Eligible team last year that did not get invited to a Bowl Game and as much as it hurt the ego of some of the players and coaching staff in the off-season, Rocky Long and his boys have since forgotten about that and now aiming for another winning season which would surely put them in a Bowl Game this time around. New Mexico really got off to a bad start and their anger was still pretty evident when they lost to I-AA Portland State 17-6 last week. I find it hard to believe that they are favored by six points on the road but oddsmakers are right in thinking that the Lobos are going to bounce back in this game since they have a ton more talent than they showed last week. It wasn't a pretty week in practice for the Lobos this week as Long punished the players for that horrendous peformance. The scoreline is a little bit deceiving when you look at New Mexico's loss last week. They still managed to get 339.0 total yards of offense on 5.1 yards per play but three fubmles and an interception killed all momentum and they ended up losing. New Mexico State's defense is by no means a good defense and they showed it by allowing a I-AA team to score 15 points on them for 4.0 yards per play in that game. On the ground, New Mexico and RB Rodney Ferguson managed only 65 total rushing yards on only 2.1 yards per carry. Since New Mexico State appears to be decent against the run, I don't expect the Lobos to go the ground much on downs that matter. In the air, QB Kole McKamey did have a much better game than the scoreline shows as he passed for 274 yards but no touchdown passes. The team averaged 7.6 yards per pass attempt last week and the hard work on the passing game as well as the different offensive schemes under coach Toledo's new gameplan should start to show results in this game. The Lobos have to do a better job of protecting their QB (six sacks last game) which they have worked on in practice. McKamey has a load of guys he can throw the ball to and I expect to see a much better game by the Lobos this week as they are going to come out and make things up for last week's disastrous loss. We all know New Mexico State is weak defensively and something tells me that their run defense can be broken down to the point where the Lobos have success on the ground early which should setup the passing game a bit later on in this game. Asking them to win by less than a touchdown is definitely possible seeing that they won 38-3 their last time playing in Las Cruces. WR's Thomas Brown and Marcus Smith are both big time threats deep downfield and I expect to see at least two touchdowns combined from these two players in this game. Lobos have a big game here.
New Mexico State is one of those teams you just never want to have to bet on in your betting career. They were 0-12 last season and are returning only 12 starters this season. However, in Hal Mumme's second year at the coaching helms, the Aggies are off to a better start than they were last year as they beat SE Louisiana (Division I-AA) 30-15 last Thursday. I know it doesn't mean much but for the Aggies it was like winning the Super Bowl and I know letdown situations are not possible with teams that suck but the Aggies might not be as ready as they would like to be in this game. This is a big rivalry game in New Mexico where the entire state is probably going to be in attendance at Aggie Memorial Stadium. I am extremely happy that the oddsmakers took the game against SE Louisiana into strong consideration because the line is a lot sweeter for us to bet on and had both teams played differently in week 1, we would have seen a -10 or more on New Mexico for this game. The Aggies had an astonishing 515.0 total yards of offense last week for 6.1 yards per play. New Mexico's defense is looking to make another statement this week even though they played well enough to put their offense in a position to win the game last week but as we all know, the offense blew it and lost the game. The Lobos allowed only 4.2 yards per play last week and although they are a little short on defense, they have more talent than we think. You can expect the Lobos to be tough against the run in this game as New Mexico State had a hard time getting anything out of their running game last week against SE Louisiana. They managed only 134.0 rushing yards on 3.0 yards per carry and although Justine Burries ran for over 100 yards, he will find that hard to duplicate this week. The Lobos allowed only 2.4 yards per carry last week against the I-AA team. In the air, QB Chase Holbrook had such a good performance that he has virtually no chance of repeating his performance against the Lobos this week. The Aggies completed 72.5% of their passes last week for two touchdowns and 9.5 yards per pass attempt. However, Nex Mexico have some nice defensive schemes mapped out for this game and seeing that New Mexico State fumbled the ball four times and lost all four fumbles last week, it would be safe to say that the Lobos are going to have a lot of bounces go their way in this one which should be enough to seal the big win on the road. They allowed only 5.8 yards per pass attempt last week and with the pressure they are going to bring on the young quarterback, I expect the defense to once again put the offense in a great position to run away with this game like they should have done last week but miserably failed to do so. This is an intense rivalry but New Mexico has always dominated and I expect them dominate again here.
Trend of the Game: New Mexico are 5-2 ATS the last seven games of this series as the visiting team.
New Mexico 34, New Mexico State 21
RECAP:
Oregon State +8 LOSS
Pittsburgh-Cincinnati 'Over' 42.5
Akron-NC State 'Under' 40.5
Virginia Tech -12.5
Wyoming +9
UNLV +14
Toledo -10.5
Toledo-Western Michigan 'Over' 51.5
Georgia-South Carolina 'Under' 39
New Mexico -6
Good Luck to all this week!
:cheers:
2006 CFB Record: 8-11 ATS (-8.50 Units)
2006 CFB ATS Record: 8-11 ATS (-8.50)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
Alright well some of you may have noticed by now but in case you haven't, I have spent the last 2-3 hours re-thinking my entire betting strategy on both College and NFL Football and went back a few years to see what it was that made me such a succesful capper. The Dolphins and Beavers both losing on ATS made me think that I am doing something wrong and it was time for a change. I hedged all my remaining bets for the weekend and have come up with new wagers that should hit the cash money. I apologize for any confusion, my record remains the same and let's sweep the board here.
-----------------------------------------
Friday, September 8
Pittsburgh-Cincinnati 'Over' 42.5 (1 Unit)
How interesting that my first play under my new (well old) capping strategy be a good old total. This is my first total play of the year and after extensively capping this game to the dot, I don't see how the total was published as low to start off and why the oddsmakers in Vegas believe the teams will have problems scoring. The Pitt Panthers are coming off a solid debut as they crushed Virginia 38-13 in their opener and they carry quite the offensive momentum and swagger coming into this thing. In that game against Virginia, the Panthers averaged a whopping 7.1 yards per play on 390 total yards of offense and they are going up against a Cincinnati defense that is returning 10 starters and that looked so-so in their opener. The Bearcats defense did manage to allow 250.0 total yards of offense against I-AA Eastern Kentucky last weekend and that can't be a good sign heading to a game against Pitt. The defense allowed 3.9 yards per play which could spell trouble in this game. On the ground, RB Levon Stephens-Howling led the way but the Panthers did not look to sharp, in fact they looked like a team working two new running backs which they were. The averaged only 3.2 yards per carry but that is good news because the Bearcats are stronger against the run this season and allowed only 2.4 yards per carry to Eastern Kentucky. In the air, QB Tyler Palko looked outstanding passing for 283 yards and three touchdowns while keeping his offense as balanced as possible. He comepleted 77.3% of his passes for a whopping 12.9 yards per pass attempt which should work against a Cincinnati defense that allowed 5.4 yards per pass attempt against a Division I-AA school. The Panthers had nine different receivers catch a pass against Virginia and in order to beat a more experienced Cincinnati defense, the Panthers will have to be versatile and give Palko enough protection to find the deep man when it most matters. The Panthers don't have to score too many points in this one for it to go OVER and I think they do just enough to get this thing to go. The last meeting between these teams was last season where they combined for 58 total points.
The Cincinnati Bearcats are coming off a season opening confidence boosting win over Eastern Kentucky as they pitched their first shutout in 11 years and won the game 31-0. However, keep in mind that this defense did allow 31.4 points per game last season and although they did look good early on, I don't know how prepared they are going to be for Pittsburgh's attack plan. What I do know however is that Cincinnati will improve on their 17.5 points per game of offense in 2005 and it should start tonight where Pittsburgh is vulnerable on the road. The Bearcats had 411.0 total yards of offense in their opener for 5.9 yards per play. Pittsburgh's defense did play well against Virginia but this is a short week and I don't know how they are going to react to that since they have not done well on short rest in the past under Wandstedt. Three diffenret Cincinnati running back got at least 10 carries last game and although Glatthar is the lead back on this team, their depth could come in handy in games like this. The Bearcats rushed for 129.0 yards on 3.6 yards per carry and are going up against a very good Pittsburgh defense that allowed only 56.0 rushing yards last week against the Cavaliers. However, that was in part because Virginia had to play from behind all the time, something Cincinnati might not have to do. In the air, QB's Dan Grutza and Nick Devila split the duties and both looked good doing it. As a unit, the Bearcats averaged 8.3 yards per pass attempt and are going up against a Pittsburgh defense that doesn't bring much pressure but that did hold Virginia to 4.3 yards per pass attempt. Let's just say that Eastern Kentucky and Virginia offenses were rusty last week and that is the reason that these two teams got so many interceptions. This game doesn't have to be high scoring for the OVER to hit but I see Cincinnati have some success on offense and the Panthers will score their fair share of points as well. What you have to understand about Mark Dantonio and his offense is that they react well to good games and usually come out flying after having played a great game against Eastern Kentucky. Cincinnati has a lot of momentum right now. This one goes OVER late in the fourth quarter.
Trend of the Game: The OVER is 9-0-1 in Cincinnati's last 10 games when passing for 280+ yards the game before.
Pittsburgh 30, Cincinnati 20
Saturday, September 9
Akron-NC State 'Under' 40.5 (1 Unit)
I had made a huge ass writeup for this play sometime last weekend but for whateve reason I got rid of it and didn't bother posting the information I had already dug up. I am not a fan of totals plays but I think it's the only way to get into a groove and start developping a feel for how some of these teams really work. Let's start to talk about Akron in this game because Akron is going to know what it's like to play in Raleigh once this is all said and done and let me tell you that the reviews will be anything but good. Akron comes into this game off their very respectable 34-16 loss to Penn State in Penn last week but that doesn't change the way I see this game. Before I go any further, the oddsmakers are giving the total some respect here because Akron has eight starters back on offense. However, what they do not realize is that gone from last year's team are RB Brett Biggs (1230 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns), WR Domenik Hixon (1210 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns) and WR Jason Montgomery (702 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns). Biggs was also the third leading receiver and losing these three guys are going to make QB Luke Getsy pretty much useless to being the year. The Zips averaged only 2.9 yards per play against a very good Penn State defense while NC State managed to hold Appalachian State to a measly 2.5 yards per play in their opener. On the ground, the Zips had problems, rushing for only 33 yards on 34 carries and that was against a great defensive front. I know NC State does not have their usual bad ass defense and they return only five starters on defense but NC State is NC State at home and the Wolfpack defense has been nearly unbeatable at home over the years. Getsy was sacked five times against Penn State and we will see the Wolfpack come out with tons of pressure and blitz packages to produce much of what Penn State did last week. The NC State secondary is solid and they should have a few picks in this game. Akron lost too many weapons on offense to do well in their second straight road game and I wouldn't be surprised to see them score only three points.
The NC State Wolfpack have never been known for their offensive ways but you would think against a team like I-AA Appalachian State last week, the Pack would have come out guns blazing and blown those guys out. Well they didn't. They won that game 23-10 and looked pretty pathetic doing so. In that game, the Pack had only 242.0 total yards of offense on 4.2 yards per play and the message was sent out early by coach Amato and that message clearly said that NC State will not try to score a lot of points this year. They will try to hold opponents to under 10 points in each of their games and hope the offense can do enough to keep them in the games. It sounds ridiculous but Amato is willing to try anyhthing at this point. Akron's defense was impressive last week, allowing only 282.0 total yards of offense against the Penn State Nittany Lions. What you have to understand about NC State is that Amato doesn't trust QB Marcus Stone and it showed in the Appalachian State game when he let him throw the ball only 13 times. The Akron Zips have one of the Nation's top secondaries believe it or not and if it comes down to it, Amato will have Stone throw the ball less than 10 times and the Wolfpack will see if they can win with the running game. Bad move. I say that because although RB Andre Brown is stud, he is up against an Akron run defense that impressed last week and held Penn State to 76.0 rushing yards on 2.8 yards per carry while NC State rushed for almost 250 yards on 4.7 yards per carry. Stone is not a reliable QB and if the Woldpack want to air the ball out, they will have to do it against some of the top corners in the MAC. NC State fumbled the ball three times in their game against Appalachian State (are you serious) and lost all three fumbles while they were at it. Surprisingly enough, Akron's defense forced two PSU fumbles last week and ended recovering both and scoring some points off turnovers. Look for NC State to run the ball as much as they can until their passing game gets them into trouble and they turn the ball over via the punt. NC State is the kind of team that comes out playing the way they did the previous week of play and if that stays true, we should see some serious struggles on the part of Amato's guys. This should be one of the most boring games on the card today but as long as the points are not scored, I am a happy camper.
Trend of the Game: The UNDER is 13-0 in NC State's last 13 games where they passed for 170 yards or less the week before.
NC State 13, Akron 3
Virginia Tech Hokies -12.5 (3 Units)
I know it looks to good to be true and I know a high percentage of Vegas and offshore bettors are going to be on the Hokies in this one but the public money does not bother me because I have big time confidence that the Hokies are the way to go in this one. Virginia Tech is coming off a 38-0 confidence boosting win over Northeastern on Saturday and they now face their first real road test of the season. Can you imagine what the line would be like had this game been played with the starters from the 2005 version of Virginia Tech? The Hokies look very complete on offense against Northeastern as they amassed 382.0 total yards of offense in a semi-effort on a whopping 7.1 yards per play. North Carolina's defense which won't come anywhere near to the NC defense of last year, allowed Rutgers to gain 362.0 yards of offense on a large 5.9 yards per play. The Hokies, if they follow the gameplan, should be able to demolish the Tar Heels defense. On the ground, RB Bradon Ore begun what could be a great career here by rushing for 54 yards and a touchdown and you have to remember that he rushed for almost 600 yards last season and ran for 147 against Marshall. Well Merry Christmas to the Hokies rushing attack in this one because they averaged 4.1 yards per carry in the opener and now get to face a North Carolina defensive line that is easily pushed over and that allowed Rutgers to rush for 217,0 yards on a whopping 5.9 yards per carry. I expect Ore, who has tremendous speed, to have a huge game along with George Bell who is the big power runner inside the 5-10 yard line of opposing defenses. QB Sean Glenno might be a sophomore but he redshirted the 2005 season and looked outstanding in the games he played in the 2004 season. Gleason had some huge numbers in his first ever start last week, completing 15 of 18 passes for three touchdowns and one interception (first of his career). The Hokies averaged 10.0 yards per pass attempt last week and believe it or not, the Tar Heels allowed 7.3 yards per pass attempt against Rutgers and have a very undersized secondary coming into this game. 10 different VTech players caught a pass last week and with the options so diverse on offense, the Hokies might tee off for some 50 points in this game. There isn't much the Tar Heels can do as they are back to their old defensive ways and that includes allowing 30 points per game.
The North Carolina Tar Heels had some high hopes coming into this season but can someone tell me why? I mean this is the same North Carolina team that went 5-6 last season and...oh I guess there's our answer. The 5-6 was impressive but it wasn't enough for the fans who wanted Bowl Eligibility for the first time since 2004. The Tar Heels came out looking flat against Rutgers as their defense was pathetic and they lost the game 21-16 at home. In that game North Carolina managed to get an impressive 403 total yards of offense on 5.9 yards per play but my question is how the hell do you get held to only 16 points on that many yards? The answer is Joe Dailey. Anyways. On the ground, the Tar Heels tore it up against a pathetic Ruters run defense but you won't see any of that today. North Carolina rushed for 169.0 yards in that game on 5.3 yards per carry but they run into a Virginia Tech defense that allowed only 93.0 rushing yards per game last season and that got off to a good start this year by allowing only 76.0 rushing yards against Northeastern on 2.7 yards per carry. QB and Nebraska transfer Joe Dailey is once against the starter this week and I dont know what to say. He was picked off twice in his Tar Heels debut and he pretty much lost the game for the Heels. The Hokies are going to come at Dailey with some extreme pressure and some big time blitz packages which should force Dailey into more mistakes and more bad plays. Sure he did play well at times, but the Hokies have some of the best shut down Corners in the NCAA and something tells me that Roland Minor is going to knock someone out in this one. The Hokies had two picks against Northeasten last week and unless North Carolina can come up with something special, this should definitely be a blowout for the ages and a blowout that emerges some new young superstars on this very underrated Frank Beamer team. When the Heels decided they want to run the ball in this game, I fully expect the Hokies to bring in some help from the secondary and ensure that the Heels don't get any big yardage plays up the middle where they had success against Rutgers last week. The keys though will be to pressure Dailey as much as the Hokies can and make sure WR Brooks Foster is not left alone on the deep ball. Sounds easy to me, let's do this.
Trend of the Game: Virginia tech is 7-2 ATS in their last nine ACC road games.
Virginia Tech 42, North Carolina 10
Wyoming Cowboys +9 (5 Units)
What could I be thinking picking a Moutain West team to come into an ACC built house and possibly knock the ML right off the Virginia Cavaliers? Sure...why not? Scott Stadium is going to be rumbling for this game but will it be rumbling for the right reasons? Only time will tell. We kick things off on this one by looking at what Wyoming did in their season opener last week. Well, they crushed Utah State 38-7 as 11.5 point favorites which was quite possibly the most impressive ATS win of the week in all of football and quite possibly the sweetest win Joe Glenn has had since he got here about four years ago. The Cowboys needed momentum coming into this game and since they now know they have a shot at the straight up win, the Boise State game next week is temporarily out of their minds and on hold mode. The Cowboys had 460 yards of total offense against Utah State as they had some nice balance amassing 5.9 yards per play in that game. Don't be shocked if they rock the house again this week against a Virginia defense that allowed 7.1 yards per play last week against Pittsburgh and who might just do the same in this game. The Cowboys rushed for 221.0 yards last game on 4.3 yards per carry and even though the Cavaliers had success stopping the Pittsburgh run, there wasn't much of a Pittsburgh run to speak about. This is the quickest, youngest and most talented backfield Wyoming has ever had and RB Wynel Seldon should have a good enough game to setup the Wyoming passing attack. QB Jacob Doss knows this system very well and he was a superstar High School player back in Kentucky. Doss is the starter again today and I expect a huge game from his ass well. The Cowboys averaged 8.9 yards per pass attempt in the Utah State game for 239.0 total passing yards. Virginia has some serious personel issues in their secondary and they allowed an incredible 12.9 yards per pass attempt against Pittsburgh and I am scared to think what this well coached Wyoming team might do. Seldon is going to compliment the air attack in this game because the Cavaliers have to respect his gamebreaking speed while at the same time have to watch out for him getting open for that 15 yard pass up the middle. This is another defensive nightmare for Virginia and although they will greatly improve on last week's putrid performance, I see Wyoming keeping this game very close and possibly even pulling off the shocker and winning on the MoneyLine. Wyoming has to be careful with fumbles though because they lost the ball twice on three fumbles last week and the Cavs might be a little more agressive in this game.
The Virginia Cavaliers knew they were in for a type of rebuilding season but they had no idea that rebuilding meant being manhandled by a Pittsburgh Panthers team that does not usually score too many points. As I mentione before, Scott Stadium might be a little rocking tonight but it won't be for the right reasons as their Cavaliers are going to struggle badly against a much weaker team on paper. Or are they? Virginia is coming off that embarassing loss to the Panthers and Al Groh has already warned his guys that nobodies position is safe this week and that he won't hesitate to use the bakcup unit if he has to. In the Pittsburgh game the Cavaliers managed only 211.0 total yards of offense on only 3.6 yards per play and they are going up against a Wyoming defense that had an easy time with the Utah State offense holding them to seven points on 129.0 total yards of offense for 2.7 yards per play. On the ground, the Cavaliers were just horrendous as Jason Snelling was the featured back and his fat ass had problems penetrating a tough Panthers defense. They rushed for only 52.0 total yards on only 2.5 yards per play. Wyoming's run defense was tested to the tune of 26 carries last week and they passed the mini test by holding the Aggies to 2.1 yards per carry for 55 yards. Now the Cavaliers do have quite the arsneal of WR's that can make big plays and if they score a lot of points in this game it will be because of those receivers. However, QB Chris Olsen was simply horrendous last week completing only 50% of his passes for 133 yards and one interception. We might see a lot more of Kevin McCabe if things don't work for Olsen early. Olsen and company passed for only 4.2 yards per pass attempt last week while the Wyoming secondary held the Aggies to 3.4 yards per pass attempt. The real test comes this week for Wyoming's defense which was a concern before the season even started. The key for this defense will be to force Olsen to make big plays because we have yet to ever see this guy make a big play and he is still without a touchdown pass in his career at Virginia. Olsen should have a much better game now that he is comfortable at home but the Wyoming Cowboys are an underrated team that are going to keep games close this year.
Trend of the Game: Virginia is 5-8 ATS in Home Openers since 1991.
Wyoming 24, Virginia 21
UNLV Rebels +14 (2 Units)
What the hell could I be thinking backing two Moutain West teams on the road in the same week against some big name schools? I don't quite know myself but I do know that UNLV is a virtual unkown in the world of college football betting and I fully expect to cash on these guys more than once this year as they go around shocking opposing teams. Mike Sanford did not have the players he wanted last season on this team and the Rebels went 2-9. However, they spend to off-season and the better part of last season picking out some of the best JUCO players in the Nation and having them sign letters of commitment to join the program. In come the transfers and what a difference it made in the Rebels opener last week as they blew Idaho State out of the sky to the tune of 54-10 and they look to make another big statement by taking care of business against a very susceptible Iowa State team. The Rebels amassed an incredible 506.0 total yards of offense last week against Idaho State and that was on 6.4 yards per play. I know it's only a I-AA team but still, it means something to pull that off. Iowa State was less than impressive in their opener against Toledo as they allowed 5.4 yards per play against a Toledo offense playing with a new quarterback. On the ground, the Rebels got a big game from RB Eric Jackson who is in his final season and is looking to prove something to the UNLV nation. The Rebels rushed for 174.0 yards on 5.4 yards per carry last week but running against Iowa State is not easy and I don't see them having much success trying. Instead, the honus will be on QB Rocky Hinds (who is a USC transfer and was highly touted in High Scool) to control this game and keep things close with the Cyclones. Hinds is working in this brand new spread offense that fits some of these Rebels players very nicely. WR Ryan Wolfe was outstanding in his debut as he caught a touchdown pass and had 160 receiving yards. The Rebels could have an easy time throwing the ball all over this Cyclones defense that is allowing 7.5 yards per pass attempt and doesn't seem to have the staff to handle a spread offense. The key for the UNLV offense will be to continue looking downfield for the big yardage passsing plays because Iowa State were exposed for the frauds that they are last week and Hinds won't let another performance like that slide. I see a shootout in this game and will go as far as saying that the Rebels will at one point have the lead in this game before losing in the end. The secret weapons on the Rebels offense are the young WR's and this kid Aaron Straiten is apparently a ticking time bomb ready to explode for a huge game. Let's see it right now.
The Iowa State Cyclones cost me some cash last week when they failed to put away the Toledo Rockets when they had the chance and it basically came back to bite them as they had to fight hard to avoid a loss. The Cyclones won that game in triple overtime but the game took an emotional toll on this team and I don't know if the Cyclones are going to give UNLV enough respect in this game. Iowa State is surely looking forward to the Iowa game next week and the Texas game the following week after that and that can't be a good sign. Why should they go all out and kill themselves here when they have the two biggest games on their schedule coming up in the next few weeks? They won't. In their game against Toledo, the Cyclones went for 393.0 total yards of offense against a decent Toledo defense but they did average 5.9 yards per play which is quite impressive. UNLV needs to improve their defense fast because this game could get out of hand early if they don't. This defense allowed 5.3 yards per play against Idaho State last week and not many starters are back for the 2006 season. On the ground, the Cyclones were quite ineffective as they rushed for only 159.0 total yards on 3.9 yards per carry. The real test is today for this UNLV improved rush defense as they allowed only 62.0 rushing yards last week and have some new transfers on defense that could make an immediate impact on this game. In the air, Iowa State QB Bret Meyer was pretty damn good last week but the Cyclones failed to convert several third down chances and ended up shooting themselves in the foot for it. WR's Toddy Blyther and Austin Finna are dangerous options down the field. The Cyclones averaged a very good 9.0 yards per pass attempt last week against Toledo while the Rebels did not do so well with their youthful secondary as they allowed Idaho State to average 8.0 yards per pass attempt. However, DC Vic Shealy is going to pressure Meyer into mistakes in this game and the Rebels are going to utilize their very underrated LB corps (four sacks last week) who might make some big enough plays to give us the cover in this game. In what might definitely turn into a shootout, I like the Rebels to keep things close with their complex spread offense and their outstanding JUCO talents. If Iowa State even cares about this game they will win but I also see the possibility of them getting caught sleeping. Enjoy a thriller and an ATS win on the Rebels.
Trend of the Game: Iowa State is 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 40 points (yes I know about the overtime) or more the week before.
Iowa State 41, UNLV 30
Toledo Rockets -10.5 (2 Units)
This is my writeup for both a Toledo ATS cover as well as the 'Over' on the game as both should be cash money in ths one. The Toledo Rockets are coming off a very impressive start to their season as they walked into Ames, Iowa and came within inches of knocking off Iowa State on their own home turf. That would have been quite the win considering that Toledo is working in several new players and their offense was not supposed to be anywhere near what it was last year. However, the Rockets managed to amass 412.0 total yards of offense against the Cyclones last week on 5.4 yards per play. Western Michigan's defense has allowed 30+ points per game the last three seasons and I don't see a reason for 2006 to be different. This defense allowed 323.0 total yards of offense against Indiana last week on 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, the Rockets were as pathetic as everyone thought they would be without a running back threat. They managed only 45.0 rushing yards in that game on 1.7 yards per carry. However, the plan won't be to run this weekend as Western Michigan was stout against Indiana's run game and passing the ball will be all Toledo does in this game. QB Clint Cochrane was very impressive in his debut passing for 367 yards, completing 79.6% of his passes and throwing for three touchdowns. Why fix something that ain't broke right? There isn't a player on the Western Michigan team that can run with WR Steve Odom or TE Chris Hopkins and look for Cochrane to hit these two guys all night if he has to. The Rockets managed to average 7.5 yards per pass attempt against Iowa State while the Broncos defense allowed a whopping 252.0 total passing yards on 7.2 yards per pass attempt. It's tough to lay this many points on a road favorite coming off a close loss but this is going to be a mud slinging affaire and anytime a game turns into a shootout, I have to go with the Rockets because they have produced some of the most high powered passing attacks in the Country over the last 5-6 years. Things might get off to a slow start in this game but by the time the 3rd quarter is almost over, the teams will be trading touchdowns and Toledo should start pulling away and end up winning the game by 2-3 touchdowns. Toledo failed to cover all four games as away favorites last year which usually means that things get turned around the following year and Tom Amstutz is surely going to have his guys ready to fight a war for the second straight week. In their last two trips to Kalamazoo, the Rockets have a combined total of 101 points scored in those games and I know that with a different QB but Cochrane has already shown that he can toss some serious mud and I want to see it one more time this week before things cool down against Kansas next week.
The Western Michigan Broncos could very well kill my Toledo ATS cover in this game but the problem I have with the Broncos is that they lack consistency and their defense always finds a way to let games get out of hand. The Broncos are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as home underdogs and that doesn't things up too nicely for tonight's encounter with a high powered offense like Toledo. However, I was impressed with the 20 points Western Michigan was able to score against Indiana last Saturday and I expect them to come out early and a score a few touchdowns to make this game interesting. In their game against Indiana, the Broncos had only 289.0 total yards of offense for 4.4 yards per play. However, they rarely had the ball in their hands which made it difficult to score more points. Toledo's defense was less than impressive against Iowa State as they allowed 393.0 total yards, which is not bad, but it was on 5.9 yards per play which means the Broncos are going to score points in this game. On the ground is not necessairily where you want to beat the Rockets because they have a big defensive line and they allowed only 3.9 yards per carry against Iowa State which is pretty damn good. Also, if this is going to turn into a shootout, there is no time for Western Michigan to run the ball unless they have a big lead and want to keep the Rockets off the field at all times. Not happening. Here is the key to the Toledo Rockets covering this game. Western Michigan QB Ryan Cubit is out for this game with an arm injury. In comes QB Thomas Peregrin who looked like a deer in the headlights last week at times but did complete 9 of 12 passes for 51 yards and a touchdown. Peregrin has a huge arm and he can sling mud with the Rockets for about three quarters until things get really out of hand. The Broncos averaged a decent 6.4 yards per pass attempt against Indiana and they now get to face a Toledo defense that allowed a whopping 9.0 yards per pass attempt last week against Iowa State. The Rockets don't have the personel to cover speedy WR Jamarko Simmons who had a great game last week and should a few more big plays in this game. Losing Cubit is a big blow to the Broncos because in a game where things are going to quickly get out of hand and Toledo might score on every possession or every other possession, the Broncos have to be ready to exchange touchdowns. Peregrin will do a good job, but he won't be able to stay within 15 points but he will be able to bring us our over once he gets comfortable in the second half and comes up with a big yardage performance.
Trend of the Game: Toledo Head Coach Tom Astutz is 9-2-1 ATS the last four years versus Michigan based MAC Schools.
Toledo 45, Western Michigan 24
Toledo-Western Michigan 'Over' 51.5 (5 Units)
This is my writeup for both a Toledo ATS cover as well as the 'Over' on the game as both should be cash money in ths one. The Toledo Rockets are coming off a very impressive start to their season as they walked into Ames, Iowa and came within inches of knocking off Iowa State on their own home turf. That would have been quite the win considering that Toledo is working in several new players and their offense was not supposed to be anywhere near what it was last year. However, the Rockets managed to amass 412.0 total yards of offense against the Cyclones last week on 5.4 yards per play. Western Michigan's defense has allowed 30+ points per game the last three seasons and I don't see a reason for 2006 to be different. This defense allowed 323.0 total yards of offense against Indiana last week on 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, the Rockets were as pathetic as everyone thought they would be without a running back threat. They managed only 45.0 rushing yards in that game on 1.7 yards per carry. However, the plan won't be to run this weekend as Western Michigan was stout against Indiana's run game and passing the ball will be all Toledo does in this game. QB Clint Cochrane was very impressive in his debut passing for 367 yards, completing 79.6% of his passes and throwing for three touchdowns. Why fix something that ain't broke right? There isn't a player on the Western Michigan team that can run with WR Steve Odom or TE Chris Hopkins and look for Cochrane to hit these two guys all night if he has to. The Rockets managed to average 7.5 yards per pass attempt against Iowa State while the Broncos defense allowed a whopping 252.0 total passing yards on 7.2 yards per pass attempt. It's tough to lay this many points on a road favorite coming off a close loss but this is going to be a mud slinging affaire and anytime a game turns into a shootout, I have to go with the Rockets because they have produced some of the most high powered passing attacks in the Country over the last 5-6 years. Things might get off to a slow start in this game but by the time the 3rd quarter is almost over, the teams will be trading touchdowns and Toledo should start pulling away and end up winning the game by 2-3 touchdowns. Toledo failed to cover all four games as away favorites last year which usually means that things get turned around the following year and Tom Amstutz is surely going to have his guys ready to fight a war for the second straight week. In their last two trips to Kalamazoo, the Rockets have a combined total of 101 points scored in those games and I know that with a different QB but Cochrane has already shown that he can toss some serious mud and I want to see it one more time this week before things cool down against Kansas next week.
The Western Michigan Broncos could very well kill my Toledo ATS cover in this game but the problem I have with the Broncos is that they lack consistency and their defense always finds a way to let games get out of hand. The Broncos are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as home underdogs and that doesn't things up too nicely for tonight's encounter with a high powered offense like Toledo. However, I was impressed with the 20 points Western Michigan was able to score against Indiana last Saturday and I expect them to come out early and a score a few touchdowns to make this game interesting. In their game against Indiana, the Broncos had only 289.0 total yards of offense for 4.4 yards per play. However, they rarely had the ball in their hands which made it difficult to score more points. Toledo's defense was less than impressive against Iowa State as they allowed 393.0 total yards, which is not bad, but it was on 5.9 yards per play which means the Broncos are going to score points in this game. On the ground is not necessairily where you want to beat the Rockets because they have a big defensive line and they allowed only 3.9 yards per carry against Iowa State which is pretty damn good. Also, if this is going to turn into a shootout, there is no time for Western Michigan to run the ball unless they have a big lead and want to keep the Rockets off the field at all times. Not happening. Here is the key to the Toledo Rockets covering this game. Western Michigan QB Ryan Cubit is out for this game with an arm injury. In comes QB Thomas Peregrin who looked like a deer in the headlights last week at times but did complete 9 of 12 passes for 51 yards and a touchdown. Peregrin has a huge arm and he can sling mud with the Rockets for about three quarters until things get really out of hand. The Broncos averaged a decent 6.4 yards per pass attempt against Indiana and they now get to face a Toledo defense that allowed a whopping 9.0 yards per pass attempt last week against Iowa State. The Rockets don't have the personel to cover speedy WR Jamarko Simmons who had a great game last week and should a few more big plays in this game. Losing Cubit is a big blow to the Broncos because in a game where things are going to quickly get out of hand and Toledo might score on every possession or every other possession, the Broncos have to be ready to exchange touchdowns. Peregrin will do a good job, but he won't be able to stay within 15 points but he will be able to bring us our over once he gets comfortable in the second half and comes up with a big yardage performance.
Trend of the Game: The OVER is 8-1 in Western Michigan's last nine home games.
Toledo 45, Western Michigan 24
Georgia-South Carolina 'Under' 39 (3 Units)
This is probably one of my most anticipated wagers of the week now that I have revamped my capping strategy. I don't know how I missed this the first time around but this is one of those classic SEC clashes where both teams think they are engaged in a chess match and both teams are scared to make the first mistake that will surely cost them the game. The Georgia Bulldogs have always been a team that knows how to score but with only four starters back on offense, you have to expect things to go wrong at some point and I really can't lay 3.5 points on the bulldogs as road favorites. Walking into Columbia is and coming out with a win against a Steve Spurrier led team is not an easy task by any means. I know the Bulldogs are everyone's flavor of the week but mine is the UNDER. Georgia is coming off a blowout season opening win over I-AA Western Kentucky but their offense was held to only 295.0 total yards in that game on 5.7 yards per play. That kind of stuff won't work against South Carolina's defense that was stud last week against Miss State and allowed only 161.0 total yards in that game on 2.9 yards per play. On the ground, Georgia had some big running plays from RB Danny Ware but I was less tham impressed with RB Thomas Brown's 26 yards on 10 carries. The Bulldogs managed 136.0 total rushing yards on 5.0 yards per carry but the Gamecocks defense is good against the run and they allowed only 79.0 rushing yard against Miss State for only 2.4 yards per carry. I know it's only Miss State but it's a confidence booster heading into the home opener. In the air, Georgia QB JoeTereshinski is obviously the starter for the Bulldogs this year but his 7 for 17 performance against a I-AA team like Western Kentucky is alarming to say the least. The Bulldogs had only 159.0 total passing yards in that game for 6,4 yards per pass attempt. South Carolina's secondary isn't the toughest in the SEC but they follow the system and it showed against Miss State as they allowed only 3.6 yards per pass attempt on 82.0 total yards of passing. Georgia has some serious concerns with the intensity of this offense and seeing that South Carolina had five sacks against Miss State and I expect them to pressure Tereshinski in his first true road game as a Bulldog. Tereshinski knows his job is not safe at the moment and the pressure of playing well against this SC defense is going to be too much. The Bulldogs do have a lot of weapons on offense but the question remains whether or not the running game is going to have an impact on an improved defensive line. If the running game isn't working early, Tereshinski will be blitzed all night and he probably won't react well to that. Georgia is going to struggle all game but in the end, they'll score at least 10 points. In their last five games played here in Columbia, the Bulldogs average 14.8 points per game and that should be about what we see out of them today if all goes well.
The South Carolina Gamecocks...haha...I always get a shuckle out of that name, but anyways, the Gamecocks are rested and ready to get going in their home openers. You are going to see 80 000 crazy Cock fans going nuts tonight which will make it tough for Georgia to really get into a groove or even find their rythm for the first half. The noise here is going to be incredible and I look for that crowd to really help the South Carolina defense have one of it's finest games this season. The Gamecocks are coming off a 15-0 win over Mississippi State in their road opener and as impressive as that win was, it was good for the defense to get a confidence boosting game like that just to ensure that they come into this game tonight with a high level of intensity. The Cocks had a respectable 274.0 total yards of offense against Croom's guys for 4.9 yards per play which is actually pretty good against Mississippi State. Georgia allowed 193.0 total yards of offense against a I-AA team last week on 3.1 yards per play which is not bad but it's not that great. South Carolina had a lot of problems running the ball last week. However, RB Cory Boyd had a good game in the end and I look for him to be the featured back in this game. The Cocks managed only 81.0 total rushing yards in that game for only 2.8 yards per carry. That's a big problem against Georgia who have a monsterous defensive line and who held Western Kentucky to 1.9 yards per carry on 67.0 rushing yards. Something tells me that even if the Gamecocks have problems running the ball again which they will, they will stick with the run as long as the game is close hoping to control the clock and the time of possession. In the air, QB Blake Mitchell did what he had to do to win last week. However, he looked horrendous completing only 12 of 22 passes for 91 yards and one interception, something that won't fly around with the Georgia defense. Mitchell and company did pass for 7.1 yards per pass attempt but are up against a Georgia defense that is relentless on the blitz and that are going to come at Mitchell and force him into big mistakes. The Bulldogs had four sacks last week while allowing only 4.7 yards per pass attempt. The South Carolina offensive line has all sorts of issues this year and they won't be able to protect Mitchell as he got sacked four times last week and it can only get worst this week against a much better pass rushing team. That's why I expect to see a lot of running and a lot of punting in this game which should in the end benefit the UNDER bet. The Gamecocks average only 14 points per game in their last five home games against Georgia and they will be lucky to hit 14 points in this game tonight.
Trend of the Game: The UNDER is 9-0 in the last nine meetings between these two teams.
South Carolina 14, Georgia 10
New Mexico Lobos -6 (2 Units)
You can officially call it a miracle. I just bet on my third Moutain West Conference team of the week on the road and although it sounds like I'm committing colllege football wagering suicide, I think all three are going to come out winners and the Moutain West is going to make a name for themselves this week. New Mexico was the only Bowl Eligible team last year that did not get invited to a Bowl Game and as much as it hurt the ego of some of the players and coaching staff in the off-season, Rocky Long and his boys have since forgotten about that and now aiming for another winning season which would surely put them in a Bowl Game this time around. New Mexico really got off to a bad start and their anger was still pretty evident when they lost to I-AA Portland State 17-6 last week. I find it hard to believe that they are favored by six points on the road but oddsmakers are right in thinking that the Lobos are going to bounce back in this game since they have a ton more talent than they showed last week. It wasn't a pretty week in practice for the Lobos this week as Long punished the players for that horrendous peformance. The scoreline is a little bit deceiving when you look at New Mexico's loss last week. They still managed to get 339.0 total yards of offense on 5.1 yards per play but three fubmles and an interception killed all momentum and they ended up losing. New Mexico State's defense is by no means a good defense and they showed it by allowing a I-AA team to score 15 points on them for 4.0 yards per play in that game. On the ground, New Mexico and RB Rodney Ferguson managed only 65 total rushing yards on only 2.1 yards per carry. Since New Mexico State appears to be decent against the run, I don't expect the Lobos to go the ground much on downs that matter. In the air, QB Kole McKamey did have a much better game than the scoreline shows as he passed for 274 yards but no touchdown passes. The team averaged 7.6 yards per pass attempt last week and the hard work on the passing game as well as the different offensive schemes under coach Toledo's new gameplan should start to show results in this game. The Lobos have to do a better job of protecting their QB (six sacks last game) which they have worked on in practice. McKamey has a load of guys he can throw the ball to and I expect to see a much better game by the Lobos this week as they are going to come out and make things up for last week's disastrous loss. We all know New Mexico State is weak defensively and something tells me that their run defense can be broken down to the point where the Lobos have success on the ground early which should setup the passing game a bit later on in this game. Asking them to win by less than a touchdown is definitely possible seeing that they won 38-3 their last time playing in Las Cruces. WR's Thomas Brown and Marcus Smith are both big time threats deep downfield and I expect to see at least two touchdowns combined from these two players in this game. Lobos have a big game here.
New Mexico State is one of those teams you just never want to have to bet on in your betting career. They were 0-12 last season and are returning only 12 starters this season. However, in Hal Mumme's second year at the coaching helms, the Aggies are off to a better start than they were last year as they beat SE Louisiana (Division I-AA) 30-15 last Thursday. I know it doesn't mean much but for the Aggies it was like winning the Super Bowl and I know letdown situations are not possible with teams that suck but the Aggies might not be as ready as they would like to be in this game. This is a big rivalry game in New Mexico where the entire state is probably going to be in attendance at Aggie Memorial Stadium. I am extremely happy that the oddsmakers took the game against SE Louisiana into strong consideration because the line is a lot sweeter for us to bet on and had both teams played differently in week 1, we would have seen a -10 or more on New Mexico for this game. The Aggies had an astonishing 515.0 total yards of offense last week for 6.1 yards per play. New Mexico's defense is looking to make another statement this week even though they played well enough to put their offense in a position to win the game last week but as we all know, the offense blew it and lost the game. The Lobos allowed only 4.2 yards per play last week and although they are a little short on defense, they have more talent than we think. You can expect the Lobos to be tough against the run in this game as New Mexico State had a hard time getting anything out of their running game last week against SE Louisiana. They managed only 134.0 rushing yards on 3.0 yards per carry and although Justine Burries ran for over 100 yards, he will find that hard to duplicate this week. The Lobos allowed only 2.4 yards per carry last week against the I-AA team. In the air, QB Chase Holbrook had such a good performance that he has virtually no chance of repeating his performance against the Lobos this week. The Aggies completed 72.5% of their passes last week for two touchdowns and 9.5 yards per pass attempt. However, Nex Mexico have some nice defensive schemes mapped out for this game and seeing that New Mexico State fumbled the ball four times and lost all four fumbles last week, it would be safe to say that the Lobos are going to have a lot of bounces go their way in this one which should be enough to seal the big win on the road. They allowed only 5.8 yards per pass attempt last week and with the pressure they are going to bring on the young quarterback, I expect the defense to once again put the offense in a great position to run away with this game like they should have done last week but miserably failed to do so. This is an intense rivalry but New Mexico has always dominated and I expect them dominate again here.
Trend of the Game: New Mexico are 5-2 ATS the last seven games of this series as the visiting team.
New Mexico 34, New Mexico State 21
RECAP:
Oregon State +8 LOSS
Pittsburgh-Cincinnati 'Over' 42.5
Akron-NC State 'Under' 40.5
Virginia Tech -12.5
Wyoming +9
UNLV +14
Toledo -10.5
Toledo-Western Michigan 'Over' 51.5
Georgia-South Carolina 'Under' 39
New Mexico -6
Good Luck to all this week!
:cheers:
